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"This Is Madness"
Despite near-record Treasury short speculative-positioning, 30Y Treasury yields just hit a 2.93% handle - in line with the yield at the Bullard lows in mid-October. The S&P 500 is 200 points higher... Discuss...
The S&P 500 is now trading 200 points rich to Treasury markets (or 30Y Treasury yields should be 55bps higher - despite world GDP expectations plunging as fast as oil prices)
As the S&P 500 has now closed above it 5-day moving-average for 28 days (today will be 29)...
This has never - ever - happened before in US equity markets.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Direct CB manipulation in stocks is my guess. If not, we're going to be in for one hellluva fireworks show fairly soon.
Despite near-record Treasury short speculative-positioning, 30Y Treasury yields just hit a 2.93% handle - in line with the yield at the Bullard lows in mid-October. The S&P 500 is 200 points higher... Discuss...
Concur with El Vaquero. It's must just be that the Fed and BoJ's buying has gotten a little off. This spread will correct when they rebalance and/or coordinate their buying activities. (Notice, I didn't say "buying and selling activities" b/c they obviously don't sell.)
I would love to know how CBs but especially the BoJ VOTES the equity securities it holds in its portfolios.
didn't ya know that its a recovery. BTW try asking the Dutch why they could get their gold but the Germans couldn't..........hehehehheeh
Discuss...ting
The carry trade for 18 months has been long Spy short oil.
Get with it Tyler.
No it's not madness at all
THIS IS SHEER FUCKING TERROR DESPERATION SEEING IT'S ABOUT TO IMPLODE INTO THE ABYSS
And they know Ferguson is just the start of what will become complete civil chaos soon
Can you say "Martial Law"?
Or how about "Complete Anarchy"?
Yes
Madness !
This , Is , SPARTAAAAA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvYZRskNV3w
This is ponzi.
This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
--Admiral Painter
Ferguson is nothing more than a fart in a coffee can. Currently the "discontent" is at its apex. It is a media and agent provocateur driven event. It has almost no grass roots.
It will be pushed aside, like Ebola, as soon as we get tired of viewing it and talking about it.
Don't worry the media will have a brand new product for you to watch and "discuss".
China hit the panic button.
I would bet my house that we will reach 2100 in couple of days.
Mortgage it again and go long S&P then... I double dare you m*ther f*cker.
Spot on: Ferguson show was planned to
take the spotlight off of immigration "reform".
As in Rome when they would roll out different
action for the masses at the coliseum so that
nobody asks about the tax money spent on their
own 1%ers. Same as it ever was.
No conspiracy, Ferguson is just a manifestation of QE .. when you destroy PRICE DESCOVERY it includes the valuation of human life.
Too large a proportion of recent "mathematical" economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.”
its not difficult to figure out what's going on. Central banks are pumping money into the S&P futures... Simple as that. Markets are now merely purchase receipts for central bank purchases.
yup
nailed it
and you didn't even need
a nail gun ...
It's called "Soup of the Day." I don't eat any of it........ too bad so many others do.
Yep. One of the hallmarks of ripping a new one for the 99% is the use of subterfuge so that the parties being ripped off are always "worrying" about something else other than getting ripped off.
"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
I would like to have seen Montana.
To think the parasitical rat bastards contemplating intelligent people to hand over their real money physical gold and silver fire insurance before the global market gets napalmed and paper ponzi ASSets vaporized to ashes!
nop.
you dream, all.
keep working and stfu. btfd.
SILENCE ! I KILL YOU, INFIDEL !!
/S
Markets never really made any sense before, so why should they now?
If the money is printed inserted in and out like a monkey fucking a football, how can any true valuation ever be determined?????
This is not hard currency but digital games played by rich babies. No hindenburg omens etc in the last 8 years have panned out for shit.
A currenvy collaspe is in order, and a new currency is awaiting an introduction center stage.
OMG++ and if any of you think with 10k or 900K your money in ANY BANK or CU will not be converted day 1 to the new currency. I can hear it now, but, but " I have FDIC insurance" you're a fool, a willfully ignorant fool, who deserves what he gets.
There's a first time for everything, so there is.
Bullish, I say.
yup, just more proof that this time is different.
"This has never - ever - happened before in US equity markets."
I have a feeling we're going to be saying this a lot on the way UP, and then a lot on the way DOWN...
I have a feeling that we're going to be saying "Fuck you Bernanke" and "Fuck you Yellen" a lot on the way UP, and then a lot on the way DOWN.
Hey El, only those who follow the markets or hang out on sites like ZH know who these dweebs are. Next time you're in line at Publix or Home Depot, ask the person next to you who Yellen is and what do they think about her current position on ZIRP or QE.
Sheeple don't know who their shepherd is at this point and don't care. Alphonso Ribero won DWTS and CNN showed some really shocking pictures of a few mask desparados running amok in St. Louis and they got scared and started screaming for the Govenor to loose the NatGuard hounds.
The way up is paved with tips from their hairdresser and the way down is covered by Faux News and MSNBS.
DaddyO
This is sadly true...most know something is wrong, but they have no idea who or what is to blame. That ignorance is responsible for this situation in the first place, and you can almost guarantee it will be responsible for whatever socialist, crack pot solution coming our way after it's all fallen apart.
Only part is ignorance, most is trust betrayed.
We live in a complex society with a great deal of division of labor and specialization. We must trust our doctors, engineers and even politicians and investment advisors. We all just don't have time to know everything and many of us don't have the smarts. We simply have to, at some point say:'I hope this guy knows what he's doing'. We also trust those who claim to be professional to do what is in our best interest and not theirs. As a doctor I can tell you the opportunities to do the opposite are always there, only character prevents us from doing great evil.
It is pretty clear we are being betrayed. Our political leaders do the will of those who have the money to get then re-elected even though they swear to adhere to a certain code of conduct and accept clear limitations. They don't and the violations are worsening by the day.
When this society explodes, and it will when the dollar collapses, we will have a mess and no trusted leadership. I have no solutions to the loss of self respect and honor of those who pledged otherwise...except to prepare myself, maintain my reputation and try to educate a few others. There is 'fixin' things at this point.
Trusting psychopaths is the problem.
We looted some folks.
RT @RudyHavenstein I saw this picture of some of the looters. #Ferguson Retweeted 651 Favorited 514
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3TyhkXCUAAzU1I.jpg:large
Yep. Sure looks like an 'unlawful assembly' to me...
Not Ferguson.
Synagogue. Totally different.
Krugman grinning, "Look at all that stimulus!"
Manipulated markets never make sense
They make perfect sense once you figure out how they're being manipulated.
All of these anomolies are due to QE and the other manipulative shenanigans of the Counterfieting Usurers of the Central Banks. When it all comes crashing down, THEY must be held accountable and hanged... ALL of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVYLT1H41Ag
This concludes the public service anouncement.
Hey Vaq,
That is great info, it's what makes the Hedge invaluable, keep sharing!
Thanks
When I was a teenager, I had tied a noose out of something about paracord diameter, and my rear view mirror ornament was cookie monster hanging from said noose. At a stoplight one afternoon, I had a mother, trying to keep a straight face, tell me that her young child was upset because "I had hung the cookie monster." Nooses are good for more than just bankers. They can provide brief and unexpected moments of entertainment at the expense of a young child's feelings.
If it was this Cookie Monster, I can see why:
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/2hmyhwGzU5A/maxresdefault.jpg
I should have thrown a necktie party for that fucker, Bert.
http://bertisevil.tv/index2.htm
Never before have the algo's all been in such agreement that the 5 dma is the trigger
wait until the algos have their fun this afternoon when no one is around...2100 by close on Friday?
nothing more bullish than a global recession within a global depression
fun times
FED must be direct buying equity indices while the TBTF banks buy Treasuries.
FED:
"I have no problem with the free hand of the marketplace, as long as it is mine".
Yeah, not exactly what Adam Smith had in mind, is it?
Socialism is beyond the laws of nature. Until it isn't ...
Watch VXX get hammered over the next few days. It just broke its low. Spot VIX is at 12 the the front month future is 14.25.
Think about the new possibilities now though....with GPRO's big announcement today we have can now have camera on a stock on A DRONE!!!
Buy AAPL every day and you keep the S&P500 above 5ma.
$7 billion a dsy not quit pomo but close just on one hotel staaaawk
The whole market is owned by about 9 people and they're not selling.
Happy Thanksgiving every one - the Dow just turned green!!!!!
destruction cometh....
The liberal progressive Fed is taking care if their boy the liberal progressive marxist Obama.. It is not that hard not to see
Good boy. There you go again, using words you don't understand. And, applying them where they aren't appropriate.
Now roll over. Now fetch. Good boy.
Another pointless tsar clinging onto a pension hope.
I know, the fed is awesome under conservative presidents.
What conservative presidents do you refer to? They have all been bent left since somewhere around 1900 or earlier.
Make no mistake, this is all a result of progressive criminality.
I really get a kick out of MSM reports of the "right wing" in France for instance. Ha Ha, yeah sure. All them bastards are twisted hard to marxprog criminal left. Just like here.
Let me know when some law abiding limited government constitutional conservatives show up and affect anything anywhere.
Grimaldus
Left/Right false pardigm stick chasing.
The U.S.A. is "Of the Banks, by the Banks, for the Banks"; the politicians and parties are a colorful distraction - lots of bright lights, colors, and loud noises - like on a slot machine.
A bird of prey that eats the middle class, one wing red another blue with CB's the body between...
Go Team Magenta!!!
You are absolutely correct. Problem is, there are so few real conservatives. You will find the most authentic among the TEA Party.
Juggling live hand grenades is really fun until the very end.
Kinda like jumping off a building.
How come the Banks Algo's don't see this? LOL
You'd think they would be concerned about risk....oh wait...
Naz Bio ETF ATH LOL
As interest rates approach zero, the implied value for any income producing asset goes to infinity. That's a big reason the stock market is so high and probably going higher. Not that I would touch it though.
Liberal unicorn math models. Shitting free shit from the sky.
NY Fed is draining reserves on Congress' order.
Major players trying to dump USD and obtain USTs, in order to avoid getting caught in Congress' net, just like Lehman was
what makes you think anyone is going to get caught in a game where everyone is guilty ?
please more details on your comments (trying to understand your reasons)
Survival of the fittest.
The system needs sacrificial lambs, same as in 2008.
This is not about morality.
Will you ping me in Chat?
I can't during work. I check ZH sporadically
After work yes, late evening
So we are saying between governments US Treasuries are Safer than USD?
US Invites other countries and players to exchange USD holdings for USTs which implies a better Guarantee.
- IOU = USD backed by FED
- IOU = UST backed by US Federal Government = Safer
Yes.
USD is currency
UST are assets
Batten the hatches folks curreny collaspe is on board, new one wating...................
Not so.
Draining of USDs reduces the quantity of USDs, hence stonger USD.
There is only one issue:
Whose USDs will be evaporated into nothing?
Who will be the sacrificial lambs this time as Lehman, Bear stearns were in 2008?
My vote:
BARCLAYS to be the first one to go down
I don't have any insight on Banks.
- These were some Big Dividend Banks in 2008 which I was watching, except RBS
- Barclays, as of 31 December 2011 had total assets of US$2.42 trillion, the seventh-largest of any bank, In September 2014, Barclays was ordered to pay $15 million in settlement charges that alleged the bank had failed to maintain an adequate internal compliance system after its acquisition of Lehman Brothers during the 2008 financial crisis.[60]
- Lloyds Bank plc, one of the "Big Four" clearing banks, 43.4% Ownership by British .gov
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, 81% owned by British .gov
- Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, legislation to liquidate it in February 2013
Damn, UK Banks Suck!!!
MS or DB
DIng Ding Ding
Another interpretation is that Foreign Countries Pay USA a Tribute for Military & Financial Control over the World... Maintaining the status quo, the existing order.
But wonder if eventually Internal Pressure in foreign countries would demand USDs be used to buy real assets or to help their home Economies... Just thinking how it might end. Certainly if the EU Broke apart all these European countries would need to spend money.
Researchers: We Have Passed Peak Gold
http://benthamopen.com/togeoj/articles/V004/29TOGEOJ.pdf
Worth reading.
Perfect, add a bunch of red ink and exclamation points and it's good to go over at KWN.
Good Link.
What's this word "markets" everyone is using with regards to our rigged financial casinos?
I always wonder the same thing when I read stories in the media. If people would use more accurate terms like "financial casino" the truth wouldn't be so hard for the masses to get their heads around.
if the house always wins, why would you bet against the house?
and yet Gold cant get above $1200 (except for whatever that TEST was yesterday !!)
Of course by Gold you mean paper gold. ;)
its fake anyway. One big mofo crash is coming up. Mother of all crashes!
The Fed - via ETFs and S&P futures, and likely through other central banks, commercial banks or investment banks as proxies - is BUYING STOCKS.
It's been 'buying' stocks through ZIRP via corporations for the past 5 years...but I know, now it's even more overt.
Just one other reason the FED can never tolerate an audit.
When your arse is covered by the laws you wrote, oversee, and enforce,
What the fucks a little fraud? You have everything you need in your pocket anyhow dont you? You run the show, you get socialised losses againts privatised profits and you own the law, what the fuck is not to like?
The law of the fucking jungle eh?
Carefull mind. Sometimes the animals bite.
;-)
I know it's frustrating Tyler, but there's no where else for all the banksters to park their free QE cash. They've completely distorted the sovereign and corporate bond markets and driven asset prices through the roof.
Good luck paying all that levered cash back.
+1
Shame that "progressive" economists like Paul Krugman aren't floating the idea of breaking up the mega banks.
I mean - it's abundantly obvious nothing changed from 6/8 years ago but the sheer audacity of the speculevering...
bank local, baby!
The CIA backed bank Of Jonathan Equine...
The Bric's are on a roll
Remember
Don;t jump
in China
Get ticket
This isn't hard to explain once you realize the largest short position in the history of the world is on right now: the U.S. dollar short. Every debt is a USD short, and emerging markets are loaded to the gills with em. The biggest USD rally in history is going to unfold and it will be the Swan song for the greenback, the final running of the bulls before oblivion.
It's always a question of when...but yes, our most recent fiat experiment is doomed to the dustbin, like all before it..
I understand where you're going with your thesis, but it's actually incorrect. The emerging markets and Asian markets are all long the $usd through the carry trade.
They purchase $usd and then borrow against it to buy more $usd assets or to short their own currencies and other Asian/ BRICS investments against. If the carry trade unwinds those trades will be liquidated in order to pay off their $usd debt denominated loans/financing. (in essence buying back $usd) That will cause the $usdx to spike higher as emerging market and Asian currencies are sold to cover $usd long positions.
Here's where things get tricky... If those $usd deposits/credit lines/collateral get sold to cover deals in their originating countries, then yes the $usd will "in essence" be a huge short play.(If those $usd assets get sold and the procedes repatriated)
What makes this proposition so dicey, is that Asia is in the process of devaluing their currencies to stave off deflation. If emerging markets and Asia want to export deflation they'ld be buying "not selling" $usd and related assets. This is why I think we're headed for a major liquidity crisis over the next several months. These smaller economies trade in $usd globally, and the stronger $usd not only hurts their "terms of trade" but also limits their liquidity. (more expensive borrowing costs)
So even though I see where you'ld think the $usd is a short, I can also see emerging markets and BRICS caught between a rock and a hard place.
~end of rant~
Thanks for that analysis, Yen. +1
Thank You for reading my rant... I get a little intense at times.
Well done Yen !!!
carry trade explained for beginners +1
Yen, your usual short posts are more rant-like and more intense than your longer more detailed posts.
+1 for your "rant" Yen. Nicely done Sir.
just went even crazier by the look of it
equity market?
I start, fwlimbw, with the bare idea of the 30 year treasury at under 3%.
It is - manifestly absurd, right? As an actual investment, mind you.
Speculation?
Who would or could do that but the largest handful of banks and the Fed?
There's no signal anymore, folks - only noise.
{El Vaq. is right}
This time is different people. It is a closed system. The only stable path out of the financial asset ponzi is through gold going parabolic. Competitive currency devaluation cannot work and will only destroy value, impoverish the masses and eventually lead to violent revolution. Liquidate float scams and buy gold.
Oh, I think things are going according to plan. SDRs and the TPP and restrictions on the internet are just around the corner, eh?
Gold is good...
arable land might even be better.
Yes, unplug and produce locally as much as possible. Forget about Plan B - have plans, C, D, E...hedge accordingly.
If gold goes parabolic, what does silver do? hyperbolic? I think gold times 10.
Hard to say. Silver has been held underwater a long time. Hold both.
Personally, I didn't buy PM's to get rich. I bought 'em to stay well off.
Governments use it to thier advantage
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/poland-gouging-own-citizens-over-russian-coal-as-government-doesnt-reduce-coal-imports/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/polands-exports-grow-and-consumer-prices-fall-under-russian-ban-polish-minister-claims-otherwise/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/u-s-today-looks-like-britian-under-king-gerorge-iii-not-by-accident/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/russia-calls-for-free-trade-zone-between-eu-and-eeu/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/23/chinas-j-31fc-31-is-junk-yet-u-s-claims-they-need-to-spend-more-tax-payer-cash-against-it/
Britain never had a Revolution as far as I know.
Control of Information and Population has allowed Kingdom of Britain (Monarchy) to exist since like 1604 AD.
- Demonstrates Great Success for European Monarchs to control wealth, economy, and peoples Minds
- Britain & It's European Banks are a Model for USA, certainly since December 1913
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glorious_Revolution (Bloodless Revolution over King James ties to Catholicism, put William the III on the Throne, THIS IS Not a Revolution)
Britain had it's "revolution" ending in 1649 when they executed the then king Charles 1st. Their leader was Oliver Cromwell. He had wanted the country to be run by a parliament. But the parliament frustrated Cromwell, who dismissed it, (more a case of booted them all out,) with the famous words, "in the name of God, go!" Which is the kind of retort that should greet Bill Dudley one morning, sooner rather than later.
Thanks bentaxle.
Chasing stocks and bonds just means society (especially the "wealth creators") can no longer create real wealth. What is that? For starters, creating capital (including natural resources) faster than it is being destroyed.
Belgium must have a FEVER! And the only prescription... is MOAR Treasury Bills!
Wise investments from the shrewd Europeans. (or is it screwed Europeans)
Must...Not...Let...George...Soros...Break...The...FED...With...His...SPY...Shorts.
It's probably all about something like that, 'Trading Places' for a $1 bet.
Maybe this time really is different?
I see no breach in logic. It is most likely that assumptions are flawed.
IF the banks can infinitely print money AND the banks have the power to control the price of equities and the price of commodities THEN interest rates are completely irrelevant.
It is only when there are free market dynamics that yield shopping and the people's money matter. The people's money is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT since the banks have shown that they neither need nor want it. They roll their own.
bonds are wrong !!!
I think the whole system is rigged!
In fact I'm sure of it ! !
the only "madness" i see is shorting the T bond market
30yr yield will be < 2% before we're done
All you need to do is look at the Jap's and German's 30 yr and you will know where we are headed.
Theme Song: F**K the Casbah
- Casbah of Wall Street
- Casbah of Federal Reserve
- Casbah of Washington DC
Money is the Religion of the US Order, US Casbah.
Think Upon this...
In Germany today you can get a 2% home loan on 120% of equity ... is that our fate too?
Well that settles it.
I'm going to borrow as much money as I possibly can, rates be damned and buy the s and p, sit back and enjoy my winnings.
As a kid, my friends and I used to play with these giant rubber bands that were used in shipping. The bands had a diameter of about a foot.
Ultimately we would have two people each holding an end of a band while they walked away from each other--a game of giant rubber band "chicken." The object of the game was to watch for your opponent letting his end go, sending the band flying back toward your face, while also watching for the band to break and come flying back toward your face. You could "win" and still lose if you were slow to react. It's a wonder that none of us lost an eye.
That chart and knowledge of the insanity of what is going on in those two markets made me remember that.
Someone is going to let go, or something is going to break, and those on the other end better be prepared.
An American, not US subject.
At least as kids, we were fully aware of the risks when the band snapped or the opposite party let go of his/her end.
Today, the rubber band pullers only know one thing: more money and more power.
More like King of the Hill IMHO than stretch the rubber.
I'm(USA) King of the Hill. I say the Interest Rate is low.
Try to knock me off the Hill if you think you can do it.
Current Interest Rates relate to Legislation Signed in December 1913.
While I agree with your opinion, I must add that one should look for and trace the DC US' "strings."
An American,, not US subject.
Ah, I missed the Symbolism. Thanks.
You are all mad!
Am I the only one who thinks comparing a Price to an Interest rate is illogical?
There is an INVERSE relationship between Bond Prices and Bond yields. http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp
That's how Bill Gross made so much money. Bond prices go up, Imputed Yields go down
A useful chart would show the S&P500 with the Actual PRICEs of the 30 year bond.
You're not wrong in that the first chart doesn't acrtually explain anything - but it's interesting to look at in a way.
I don't understand, I guess, why, though, you think your last few sentences follow.
Always prepared to say I am missing something, though.
During Bill's bond fund succeses, Bond rates dropped from 15% to current levels.
His trading skills allowed the fund to buy low and sell high.
An example, if you buy a bond now at 2.92% and its Imputed interest rate goes up to 5%, your bond's Value has Dropped. The original coupon rate still pays the same, but you've lost money.
Such a comparison would not upset/disturb the readership!
Actually - there is a method to this madness - it is part of the newest mass fraud and opening gambits of the next fucking massive theft by the usual suspects. Absolutely worthless investments have value simply to park money and to prop up the "economy" long enough to allow the vampires to continue feeding just a bit longer... and when they can't - massive war, and global currency/SDRs will ride to the rescue.
We've seen this movie before.