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The New Home Sales Farce: Department Of US Economic "Data" Revisions Full Frontal
A month ago we wrote "The Housing Recovery Has Been Canceled Due To Data Revisions", in which we compared New Home Sales data as originally reported and as subsequently revised. We showed that all 4 out of 4 prior months had seen New Home Sales revised substantially lower, noting that "the euphoric, consensus-beating data for every single month since May has been revised lower, by on average 6% and as much as 9%. Perhaps finally people will realize that there is only one number that matters in the Census bureau's monthly new home sales report: the ±15.7 90% confidence interval. Well, people maybe, but not algos, who only care about one thing: whether the data beat or missed."
Sadly, people did not realize it.
So here is the latest New Home Sales data: moments ago the Census Bureau reported that 458K new homes were sold in October (with a 16.5 error confidence), which missed expectations of a 471K increase from last month's 467K print, but that's ok, because last month's number was also revised substantially lower from 467K to 453K, which in turn will allow the mainstream propaganda to tout that New Home Sales jump in October to match the highest print since October 2013.
There is one problem: here is what the update chart of New Home Sales data looks like on a historical basis... and as revised. It sure puts that 458K "increase" in a slightly different light.
And while government workers are debating data fudging, perhaps they can tell their colleauges at the NAR to also pick it up: Pending Home Sales dropped 1.1% in October, missing expectations of a 0.5% increase, more than offsetting the modest 0.6% increase last month. That said, Larry Yun is still doing a great job when it comes to pitching his conflicts of interest:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says despite October's modest decline, contract signings have remained at a healthy pace now for six straight months. "In addition to low interest rates, buyers entering the market this autumn are being lured by the increase in homes for sale and less competition from investors paying in cash," he said. "Demand is holding steady but would be more robust if it weren't for lagging wage growth and tight credit conditions that continue to hamper those individuals looking for relief from rising rents."
"The increase in median prices for existing-homes has leveled off, representing a healthier pace that has kept affordability in-check for buyers in many parts of the country while giving more previously stuck homeowners with little or no equity the ability to sell," says Yun.
Sorry Larry, as we showed yesterday, Americans have given up on the Old Normal American dream. The New Normal one: living in your car.
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They love to compare apples and oranges to make things appear soooo much rosier than reality
you can at least get a fruit smoothy from apples and oranges...
It's not apples, oranges, or fruit smoothies. It's artifically flavored artificially sweetened Koolaid to cover for a failing regime.
Forward (over the cliff)!
Has anyone considered that the reason auto loans are up is not due to increased auto sales, but rather a decrease of people being able to purchase autos with cash?
With incomes falling, I suspect more Americans are being forced to finance for longer and longer terms.
Soon, we'll have a new category of consumer credit: "Big Screen TV Loans" with 36-month terms...
I am still trying to figure out where I am going to hang my new 4K TV under the bridge.
When things get really bad you have to lie.
People are moving into their cars?
Yea, that's why the auto loans. Really just smaller mortgages.
like that guy in Ferguson they found in his trunk, had a "house" fire
He was already dead from lead poisoning
Now that's funny right thar!!!
Larry YUK you're a lying _ _ _ _
who cares - I came here to see more sidebar ads of millenial women chugging bottles of wine, preferrably naked
HUh? I keep getting car ads :(
They use your camera to read your mind. I keep seeing ads for molotovs.
I don't see any ads because I use a Firefox extension.
Ghostery is your friend. Its available on both Chrome and Firefox
Do a couple searches for "Cougars" or "Hot Russian Brides" in the same browser and the view will change.
Or use Firefox and Adblock Edge and see no ads whatsoever: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/adblock-edge/
Shouldn't the Oct 14 number be in Blue? We don't have the revision yet?
They used the wrong crayon.
...and ate too much of the paste.
You are correct. Yo Tyler Durden, that first chart needs a makeover.
Americans are mushrooms; we are kept in the dark and fed bullshit.
It is the perfect recipe for the propagation of lies, and a fungus.
Oh, and next month the number will be 461K.
This forecasting stuff is easy!
why are we spending time on this stuff? There is a small cadre that understands whats happening. And we are labeled as kooks. Family and Friends laugh at us.
the data is all there for media to exploit. They don't, not even Fox.
by the way--last week egg prices went up 28 cents a dozen and 18 cents this week--anybody seeing anything on that?
have to go to dept of ag to get teh data by region.
seems demand is more than supply--physical-not futures.
2 reasons Obama doesn't understand why the democrats ate shit in November: First because his handlers keep him in the dark and feed him lots of number like these. Second because he thinks the opposition must have stooped lower than he did.
It's like Hitler towards the end of WWII in his bunker with his generals all telling him about the great victories on the front lines.
The article notes "that 458K new homes were sold in October " This is incorrect the 458K is the (SAAR) Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Read the actual report page 4 notes number of home sold during the period of October is 37,000
Thank you for that. That was a huge WTF for me. 4.5 million new homes a year would be a bit off the charts since the record for new homes being built is somewhere around 2.4 million. About 312,000 was the worse after the crash, so 458k isn't very good actually.
37,000 x 12 = 444,000
Bad run-rate, too.
Bad ju-ju at the BLS.
Philly Housing Index (index of major housing vendors) up 8% in November, October up 5%.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-monthly-pushes-5-h...
Fed and other Central banks continue to buy anything that moves. 700B market cap for Apple is a job well done by Yellen, but if they took AAPL to $1T, people may stop believing.
shit show continues.
All you poor people are sooooo fucking stooooooooooooooopid!! Just do what Janet Yellen says, to get rich buy houses and stocks. WTF???!!!