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False Confidence Rising In The US
Submitted by mickeyman via The World Complex blog,
A recent article argues that the increasing demand for consumer credit is an indicator of increasing consumer confidence. The argument seems reasonable due to the way it is presented--there is an entirely different conclusion one would draw were the argument presented differently.
If you had a very low income, and few assets, yet people kept lending you money--money that greatly exceeded your assets--would that not suggest that these lenders had confidence in you? It may be that this confidence is unjustified--but we can infer its existence by the continued willingness of others to lend you money despite the fact that you appear to be ruined.
In just the same manner, we can infer the confidence that lenders have in a country by computing the ratio of a nation's debt to its actual holdings of real money. A high ratio suggests great confidence--even though it could just as easily be a measure of ruin. In the case of the US, we have used the ratio of its official debt to its official gold holdings. For other countries, we would have to include foreign currency holdings as "wealth".
Confidence in the US hit an all-time high in September 2001. Then something happened, and confidence in the US fell steadily until the end of 2012. The falling confidence level occurrred because the value of the US gold holdings rose faster than its debt (which itself was increasing at the greatest rate ever). In other words, the US dollar was losing value (relative to gold) faster than the US gov't could spend it.
Confidence increased in 2013, as the gold price fell while debt continued to increase. But is this real confidence?
The ratio of debt to gold can only be considered a measure of confidence if foreign entities are willfully buying the debt. If, on the other hand, the government simply monetizes the debt itself, or orders its vassal states to purchase the debt, then it wouldn't be correct to look at this ratio to be a measure of confidence. It is a measure of ruin--and faked confidence.
We have also seen that higher confidence correlates to periods of lower unemployment. The correlation appears to have continued into 2013, but with all the shenanigans involved in reporting unemployment, I have to caution that I have no confidence in the reported unemployment rate. However, it appears that goosing confidence may be a fore-runner to improved employment, and reiterate that there are only three ways governments and central banks can bring about such a result--increase debt (without the gold price falling); sell gold; or pray for the gold price to fall. Pray hard. Very, very hard.
The second chart really shows faked confidence compared to faked unemployment numbers (particularly the last couple of years). But at least it shows that things are getting "better" in the US.
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Yes it is, not it's not.
I've heard this before, somewhere....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjOSLCR2hE
Happy Turkeyday
Confidence in the future is always false
For all you conspiracy theorists getting bored with the Detroit Chicago game or need to escape the half functional inlaws and want something to mess around with. Check this out.
Janet Airlines who famously fly between McCaren (Las Vegas) and Area 51 (Tonapah Test Range) fly "frequently" between LV and Palmdale (Lockheed Skunk Works)
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/WWW313/history/20141126/2135Z/KPMD/KLAS
Have a blast.
We conned some folks...
.
Aliens are gonna take this shit show down.. Alien ant farm is fast becoming the only way to describe this lunacy.. beam me the fuck up.. please!!
Here's another one.
Palmdale to Needles....
Another odd destination for those "in the know"
http://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/VEZE
Plus, has the tail number.
Have a blast
What isnt fake these days??? The so called 'confidence' numbers we get, the fudgedf economic data, the nice lips, eyes and big boobs on the hot chick, the muscles on these big well built guys, the food we eat....there is no truth anymore in this world...
Thanks to Bruce Willis, men no longer have to wear toupes. So, we got that bit of truth going for us.
Or comb overs. + 1
- Bald guy
I'm confidently optimistic that the central bankers have everything under control. /s
Start stacking you fuckers, this whole economy is about to implode so says Mr. Silver himself David Morgan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGYaFMFU63U
What say we rearrange some chairs in the Titanic, get the band to pkay, do some dancin' & have a party... what could go wrong...
Good topic and for sure what's going on out there and sites like Zero Hedge, my blog and quite a few others know about fake numbers. It's getting old, but the fake numbers keep moving money to the 1% and that's the problem.
I call it the Attack of the Killer Algorihtms as you need those to create the fake numbers, accompanying studies and surveys that go along with it to get the conumers to buy in and according to what's written here, some of the crap is working..oh God.
http://www.ducknet.net/attack-of-the-killer-algorithms/
First video up at the Killer Algorithms page is mathematician Charlie Siefe from New York, who also wrote the book "Proofiness, the Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception"..see there's even books on this topic (grin). He released another book recently called "Virtual Unreality" which Emanuel Derman and I tweeted, we thought it should be one to definitely put on our lists to read. Emanuel, by the way used to write black box code for Goldman before things became really corrupt and he left, but you can see him in video #2, "Quants of Wall Street, the Alchemists". Where is that modelers code of ethics and the Hippocratic oath that both he and Paul Wilmott created? It's very good. Bank in Switzerland just dug it up recently and is recommending their bankers take the oath. It's a good start, but if they want to chat with algorithms and math models, they do it anyway as they get to hide all of it with proprietary code. Oh well...scary consumers are getting happier with these fake numbers..
So in other words, 'the American Dream'
no brain, no pain.
Orwell said it better
Someday the sheeple will never wake the fk up..
this is going to be a self-induced cb. DEBT crisis, exactly the same as 2008.
in 2008 the cb.'s, and the people they made bad housing loans to had a DEBT problem, with the help of politicians they made it americas financial problem, and the cb.'s made trillions, now the cb.'s are back at the same well, why not.
the same bad loans are being made again, just as in 2008, the tfa walked away from bad house loans, and moves on to free rental housing, just as now they'll not pay their car loans, or student loans, they don't have to, politicians make laws for working americans to pay their debts.
Politicians make laws to enrich themselves and their handlers / bundlers.
These laws inevitably benefit ( i use the term benefit very loosely ) the non working / poverty level ignorant masses that nonetheless vote. They certainly don't benefit the few Americans that actually work .... or manage to, miraculously enough, make a living wage.
Those are the sheep that are still making enough wool to be sheared.
This will NOT be the same as 2008. This will be a bond market explosion the likes of which even God cannot fathom.
Because war is the new economy
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/russia-and-the-u-s-sell-to-both-sides-of-india-pakistan-tension/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/23/chinas-j-31fc-31-is-junk-yet-u-s-claims-they-need-to-spend-more-tax-payer-cash-against-it/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/22/u-s-state-dept-official-caught-handing-over-classified-documents-to-pakistani-officials/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/pentagon-to-spend-10-billion-on-problem-it-created-create-the-problem-offer-the-solution-war-is-the-new-economy/
"Because war is the new economy"
Because war was and is always the economy
There fixed it for you
Every time American or even the world's "confidence" increases, we should be very afraid. In this world, confidence is but a measure of departure from reality, an indicator of heightened delusion. This obviously plays well for the top of the food chain as they apparently are driving it, but mass delusion of this level WILL NOT continue.