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Gold Shortage, Worst In 21st Century, Sends 1Y GOFO To Lowest Ever... And India Just Made It Worse
While we have covered the aberration that is a negative gold GOFO rate previously and in extensive detail in this post, an abridged version of what negative GOFO means comes courtesy of Deutsche Bank's recent discussion on what a successful Swiss gold referendum. To wit: "It is interesting to note that benchmark gold-dollar swap rates have recently traded negative, meaning investors are paying to borrow gold. This is unusual as gold is traditionally used as a source of collateral for cash financing.... [A] number of factors may play a role, such as excess dollar liquidity or an increased demand for collateral on the back of the global regulatory developments." In short a gold shortage at the institutional, read commercial and central bank, level. And not just a shortage but the biggest shortage in history, judging by today's latest plunge in the 1 Month GOFO which just dropped to -0.5% and , worse, 1 Year GOFO that just hit its lowest print in the 21st century, and is also about to go negative: something that has never happened before further suggesting the gold shortage could go on for a long, long time!
Negative GOFO
To be sure, GOFO has printed negative in the past, although the two most prominent historic plunges were due to acute events which promptly renormalized, and were not the result of what has now become a chronic gold collateral shortage via the swaps market.
The best known example of a complete collapse in the GOFO rate, is the September 1999 Washington Agreement on Gold, which was an imposed "cap" on gold sales (mostly European in the aftermath of Gordon Brown's idiotic sale of UK's gold) to the tune of 400 tons per year. The tangent of the Washington Agreement is quite interesting in its own right. Recall the words of Milling-Stanley from the 12th Nikkei Gold Conference:
"Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement...At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price—and thus on the value of their gold reserves—of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.
"Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals—and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions."
Of course, this happened in a time long ago, when the primacy of Fractional reserve banking was sacrosanct, when the first Greenspan credit bubble (dot com) was yet to appear, and when barbarous relics were indeed a thing of the past, only to be proven oh so contemporary following not one, not two, but three subsequent cheap-credit bubbles which have vastly undermined the religious faith in fiath and central banking, sending the price of gold to all time highs as recently as 2011.
Another subsequent negative GOFO episode occurred in early 2001, which coincided with what has been rumored to be a speculative attack and reversal of the futures market. However, while pushing 1 month rates negative, 3 month rates remained well positive.
The only other time when both 1M and 3M GOFOs were both negative or almost so (3M touched on 0.05%) was in the aftermath of the AIG bailout following the Lehman collapse in November 2008, which reset the GOFO rate to just barely above 0% where it has traded for most of the time, at least until last summer when in a widely documented episode of negative GOFO rates, GOFO went negative in July of 2013 and remained in negative territory for over a month.
Which brings us to today, when not only is the 1 Month GOFO rate the most negative it has been since 2001, not only is 2 through 6 Month GOFO also negative, and in fact the 6 Month GOFO is now negative for the longest stretch in history clocking in at 11 consecutive days, but, strangest of all, the gold curve backwardation is about to become absolutely historic with 1 Year GOFO just a whisper away from hitting negative territory for the first time ever at 0.02667%.
But how is it possible that there is a shortage of gold when gold prices keep tumbling day after day, the skeptics will ask? Simple: the shortage involves gold "available" in the repo market, i.e., gold that already has been rehypothecated one ore more times. Keep in mind that central banks rarely if ever purchase gold outright in the open market, unlike Russia of course (and perhaps China), which has been engaging in an unprecedented gold buying spree over the past year. The rest of the commercial and central banks merely rely on shadow banking conduits and other repo channels to satisfy their gold needs, all of which merely demand the "presence" of synthetic, if not actual physical gold.
It is this synthetic "shadow" gold that is now actively disappearing from the system.Of course, if and when central banks were to tip their hand and reveal the unprecedented synthetic shortage to the physical market, the actual cleared market may well go bid only.
India shocks observers by scrapping gold import rule
One event that may stretch the already ridiculous disconnect between physical and swap-based gold, is the announcement earlier today by India which just scrapped a rule mandating traders to export 20 percent of all gold imported into the country, in a surprise move that could cut smuggling and raise legal shipments into the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal after China.
As Reuters reports, "along with a record duty of 10 percent, India introduced the so-called 80:20 import rule tying imports to exports of jewellery last year to bring down inbound shipments and narrow the current account deficit that had hit a record.
"It has been decided by the Government of India to withdraw the 20:80 scheme and restrictions placed on import of gold," the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday, without giving a reason for the change in the rule.
The reason today's announcement was stunning is that only days ago there were talks between officials of the Mumbai-based central bank and the finance ministry in New Delhi to bring back curbs on some trading houses following a surge in imports over the past few months.
Traders said before the decision on Friday that India's gold imports could climb to around 100 tonnes for a third straight month in November as dealers bought heavily on fears of curbs on overseas purchases, especially as the wedding season picks up.
The government's latest move came as a surprise even to some officials.
A policymaker associated with India's gold import policy said the government instructed the RBI at 1830 local time on Friday to urgently change the rule. A notification was posted on the central bank's website two hours later.
"We were not informed about the reason for scrapping this rule. The restrictions on who all can import who can't are still valid," said the policymaker, declining to be named as he is not authorised to talk to media.
And while those in control are unhappy that India's relentless appetite for gold is about to return, and in the process slam the country's current account deficit, at least one group is happy: "the rule change was a relief to jewellers facing difficulties in sourcing gold during the key festival and wedding season that started in October."
Bachhraj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, said the 80:20 rule was not only encouraging smuggling but was also misused by many traders.
From getting human mules to swallow nuggets to hiding gold bars in dead cows, smugglers had raised their activity since the middle of last year after the import curbs.
Following the disbanding of the 80:20 rule, the government may place a monthly or yearly quota for traders, said Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst at consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.
"Quota is a more logical and simple way of monitoring and limiting gold imports," Nambiath said.
Bottom line: one can again add India to the list of end-market where hundreds of tons of physical gold will end up, never to be heard from again.
And then there is of course the wildcard of the Swiss gold referendum on Sunday, where a "Yes" vote would lead to the immediate collapse of the gold price suppression mechanism as the swap-based gold shortage breaks through merely shadow conduits and finally makes its way to the real market. Which, of course, is why it will never be allowed to happen.
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Ah, so that's why it was down 2.5% today.
what is the problem of using real estate, land as collateral for future currency?
Germany did pretty well on that advice after the hyperinflation ... also, all americans who have invested in real estate would benefit that way ... just sayin'
Negative GOFO. Gold price (paper gold) down sharply.
Good time to buy some physical gold.
I wonder how hard it is right now to buy in quantity (large buyers, 50 tonnes or more). My understanding is that it is the LARGE QUANTITIES that will be the first to fail (deliveries of physical). After that, the supply of the 1 oz coins will dry up.
Jim Willie sez that the US$ will go up sharply right before "The End". The US$ is up. (Paper) Gold is down.
Strange times!
Silver is down almost 5%.....makes total sense.
It makes perfect sense. Remember the Swiss referndum is this weekend. What we are seeing today is Psyops. They're scaring the Swiss and it will probably work as many in today's day and age are quite weak willed.
Dont worry guys....this is like sniffing coke and getting wasted...the more you sniff, the better it feels....but eventually your body (or the system) can only handle so much and everything lets loose....we are still getting higher and higher at the moment...but things will revert back to common sense at some point.
Problem is the Memes about Banking & Economics, and the distraction from FED being A Corporation with Stockholders, and the Elites Programing both our Universities & Government with Dribble about Economics, Accounting, Private Banks preventing Moral Hazard, and the Burying of the Truth in the Narrative about the Money Trust & US Monopolies.
- The very Idea that Private banks & Corporations don't have moral Hazard is a deeply placed Lie in the USA.
- This has gone on at least since December 1913
- Neo-Feudalism is next
- They are "Winning", the have Captured CB, Federal Government, US Congress, All Markets in US, UK
- They have overturned GAAP Accounting, Auditing, Independent Investigations
- They Created a Military-Government-Corporate Conglomerate with Central Banks through out the world, backed by WTO, IMF, WB, BIS, OECD, USNESCO, G7, G8, G20, and various Treaties like NAFTA & CAFTA-DR
This can go on a long time... Think Dark Ages, Think Debt Slavery, think parents selling kids into apprenticeship programs, Indentured Servants, Debtor Prisons which manufacture on the side
Listen to that sound.... do you hear it? Is that the sound of closed gold mines?
No gold mines shut down? Gold supply still available?
Then is that the sound of more Gold Bullshit hitting the fan?
Gold price was manipulated ... fact.
Gold price is still manipulated .... probably.
There is no "market" for gold. Only con-games from banksters.
Gold Casino craps table. Roll the gold dice. Seven you win. Seven you lose. Free drinks for players.
He who has the gold makes the propaganda.... and keeps the gold.
If the referendum passes, Switzerland's gold reserves would effectively become worthless and greatly increase economic risk for the tiny European nation, the US investment bank said in a note entitled Gold: A 6000-year-old bubble revisited.
Swiss gold referendum 'makes little sense': Citihttp://www.smh.com.au/business/swiss-gold-referendum-makes-little-sense-...
ignore the noise and stack.........you can't beat the bankers on paper price games just accumulate. BTW the true power will have their physical when they decide to turn it
@ macholet... GREAT article about citi. read the last two paragraphs. you wont believe the chief economist for citi could say that... on second thought I guess that's why hes the chief economist for citi. .
China and Russia are no longer increasing dollar denominated assets and are buying gold and other assets with USD as soon as received through trade.
And they want physical gold not the NY/London virtual pretend gold.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap
The 100+:1 paper to gold leverage ratio at the LBMA works much faster in reverse (i.e. when the physical is removed) - which is what is happening
"It makes perfect sense. Remember the Swiss referndum is this weekend. What we are seeing today is Psyops. They're scaring the Swiss and it will probably work as many in today's day and age are quite weak willed."
If that bankster had any sense, he would have ranted in french and german. Then, maybe he could have tweaked a Swiss vote or two into voting no. Blathering in english just turns you into a target for the cyber tomato throwers.
Sorry , i have asked this questions too many times.
IF one CANNOT have access to physicall gold and HAD to play gold in this rigged market. What would you buy. Here is my top 5.
1) PSLV
2) PHYS
3) CEF
4) SLW
5) Silver miners
Do i give up take huge losses and buy real estate ?
i do need help.
I would say go with Sprott´s Gold and Silver funds and forget the rest. At least you know for sure the gold and silver is there backing up the shares. It´s still paper, but if you must play with paper, it´s at least cardboard. Don´t be the weak hand who gets suckered into panic selling. This entire world economic system is built on quicksand. Forget Real Estate for the moment unless you have a serious plan that would generate instant capital income that way outpaces your costs for owning property. I´d wait until the bubble blows first though. And take your chump change and start buying some phyzz on the side. It´s crazy not having any.
Hi and ty.
Real estate in Argentina is ridiculously cheap to maintain.
I pay $150 tax on my house per year and returns about 5% on rent.
But yes, i could get cheaper prices to buy in the future .
I,,ll go with more Sprott and king dollar for a while, i should win with one of the two?
The trolls are out tonight and I know why. The Gold initiative scares the hell out of the cabal.
If this thing goes down with a no its still good for gold for the following reasons:
1. The initiative has brought the world out to question, right or wrong, the need for gold,
2. The obvious and blatent propaganda exhibited by the PTB is showing what a sham our leaders are,
3.The focus has now been broughti on manipulation not just in gold and silver but in every market rendering our markets a showcase of criminal fraud,
4. The Swiss people can simply work around a no vote by becoming their own central banks and turning their Euros and Francs into Gold,
I don't know, maybe there are several other reasons it will be good in the end because in the end, this party is going down. This global bubble of all things financial is gonna pop and if the inverted pyrimid theroy is true, the only hing that will restore sanity to all people will be that which has srved this very purpose for all humanity, gold. And silver too.
IMHO
ok that almost answers my question..
If i have a50% chance of not getting scammed by SPROTT funds , i am all in !
Have relatives in Switzerland -- they and all their friends are voting FOR the initiative......they don't know one person voting NO. What they are concerned about is irregularities in voting, or an outright rigging of the vote.....which the SWISS, with their proud history, are very apprehensive about.
And given the large US presence in Switzerland oddly now......and American bankers' with their nuts on the line, they know that this is very, very, very possible.
The Swiss are not as dumb as the Americans. Not by half.
1 for you, 2 for me.
day later
20 % gold backed franc looses by overwelming majority
suprise, suprise
and polls were say'g a "close one".
ha, ...
you are dealing with judge and jury sponsored by bankers. hello?
anyone home? expecting the right thing to happen?
you fucking idiot...
i was counting the big vs little holes in some swiss cheese and i can safely predict big holes out numbered small holes and that, without a doubt, tells me the referendum will go down in a puff of smoke...
My nephews, 4, 5 and 6, just had 3 contracts settled. 3 oz, delivered in the hand.
You hand out $1200/oz gold coins to your nephews??? Must be nice to be part of the 1%...
And that was just for finishing their homework!
I don't know about the .01% part, but these kids may be learning to survive when most won't.
We bitch and bitch here, over this or that, but at the end of the day, our kids and their kids are absolutely, overwhelmingly fucked.
I'm flattered but not even close. I just don't want to die with it. I'll die soon.
May you rest peacefully in Valhalla, SoberOne. I can tell you have fought the good fight.
Amen.
"On a long enough timeline....." and all that jazz. That was a very good move on your part. Do those kids another favor and write them a letter for the future. Pass on your knowledge. Don´t take it to the grave with you.
fuck sober one that sucks!
Gl brother.
As are all of my numerous Swiss relatives, not one single nay amongst the whole bunch.
Post a Swiss "wHite pages" so we can grassroots cold call people.
"Hi, I'd like to make you and your children's future better... all you have to do is..."
Its avalable online.
What will the Swiss people do if the referendum fails and fairly well-trusted exit polls indicate 75+% voted for passage? I'm not familiar with the Swiss government/canton structure.
Bush, Ohio. But the Swiss public likely won't swallow it.
Your comments are much more interesting than the article itself. Can you give any more information about your swiss contacts, do you really think there is a chance of a yes vote?
'Traditionally, the West has used two methods to eliminate the threat to the hegemony of petrodollar model in the world and the consequent excessive privileges for the West:
One of these methods - colored revolutions. The second method, which is usually applied by the West, if the first fails - military aggression and bombing. But in Russia's case both of these methods are either impossible or unacceptable for the West.
Because, firstly, the population of Russia, unlike people in many other countries, does not wish to exchange their freedom and the future of their children for Western kielbasa (meat sausage). This is evident from the record ratings of Putin, regularly published by the leading Western rating agencies. Personal friendship of Washington protégé Navalny with Senator McCain played for him and Washington a very negative role. Having learned this fact from the media, 98% of the Russian population now perceive Navalny only as a vassal of Washington and a traitor to Russia's national interests. Therefore Western professionals, who have not yet lost their mind, cannot dream about any color revolution in Russia.
As for the second traditional Western way of direct military aggression, Russia is certainly not Yugoslavia, not Iraq nor Libya. In any non-nuclear military operation against Russia, in the territory of Russia, the West led by the US is doomed to defeat. And the generals in the Pentagon exercising real leadership of NATO forces are aware of this. Similarly hopeless is a nuclear war against Russia, including the concept of so-called "preventive disarming nuclear strike". NATO is simply not technically able to strike a blow that would completely disarm the nuclear potential of Russia in all its many manifestations. A massive nuclear retaliatory strike on the enemy or a pool of enemies would be inevitable. And its total capacity will be enough for survivors to envy the dead. That is, an exchange of nuclear strikes with a country like Russia is not a solution to the looming problem of the collapse of a petrodollar world. It is in the best case, a final chord and the last point in the history of its existence. In the worst case - a nuclear winter and the demise of all life on the planet, except for the bacteria mutated from radiation.
The Western economic establishment can see and understand the essence of the situation. Leading Western economists are certainly aware of the severity of the predicament and hopelessness of the situation the Western world finds itself in, in Putin's economic gold trap. After all, since the Bretton Woods agreements, we all know the Golden rule: "Who has more gold sets the rules." But everyone in the West is silent about it. Silent because no one knows now how to get out of this situation.
If you explain to the Western public all the details of the looming economic disaster, the public will ask the supporters of a petrodollar world the most horrific questions, which will sound like this: - How long will the West be able to buy oil and gas from Russia in exchange for physical gold? -And what will happen to the US petrodollar after the West runs out of physical gold to pay for Russian oil, gas and uranium, as well as to pay for Chinese goods? No one in the west today can answer these seemingly simple questions. And this is called "Checkmate", ladies and gentlemen. The game is over.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap
Your comments are much more interesting than the article itself. Can you give any more information about your swiss contacts, do you really think there is a chance of a yes vote?
Very unlikely. It's not a conspiracy either, lots of people voting no.
Are you a Swiss ?
Do you have Swiss relatives, or any connection to Switzerland ?
Just wondered where you're getting such profound insight from.
Do you have Swiss relatives, or any connection to Switzerland ?
Yes, and the vote is headed for almost certain failure. I'm sure you guys will have great conspiracy theories on sunday night to explain away what is perfectly obvious / expected.
Bullshitter, as usual with your statisrt/banker cocksucking posts.
Ok we'll see who's right on Sunday. The statist bullshitter or the British imperialist.
So you admit you're a coscksucker.
After they vote no on gold, they should all be forced to eat American Cheese Fondue everynight.
Made with velveeta....:)
Expired of course. Better yet, the "cheese" packs that you find in MRE´s are really a special kind of evil. That would cause the Swiss to howl enmasse amongst the Alps.
Please explain "gold as collateral." I understand "Bank as collateral" now ("that will be ten trillion dollars") but not "gold as collateral." Also...please explain how you know anything about "gold supply."
If I have 100,000 tons would that matter relative to price? Obviously I would need a very good forklift....
o.O
I understand gold at 100,000 dollars an ounce. Can you explain to me gold at 1000 dollars an ounce?
How about "gold at one hundred dollars an ounce with all known gold mines closed"?
I mean seriously....I can think of only ONE reason why gold prices...let alone silver!...decline.
On the other hand perhaps someone can explain why the dollar keeps surging as well.
To get an A+ on this project you will attempt to combine both.
you get an A for answering that easy question, you get A+ if you tell me how to play the best paper gold, there will be winners in the reset APART from the phys.
ON a holiday this news>>in normal markets gold would be up every day and up 10% each day, but ho hum:
"The Daily Treasury Statement that was released Wednesday afternoon as Americans were preparing to celebrate Thanksgiving revealed that the U.S. Treasury has been forced to issue $1,040,965,000,000 in new debt since fiscal 2015 started just eight weeks ago in order to raise the money to pay off Treasury securities that were maturing and to cover new deficit spending by the government.
During those eight weeks, Treasury took in $341,591,000,000 in revenues. That was a record for the period between Oct. 1 and Nov. 25. But that record $341,591,000,000 in revenues was not enough to finance ongoing government spending let alone pay off old debt that matured."
The rigged vote is always possible.
Diebold Switzerland
Paper ballot.
God bless the Swiss. May fortune smile upon you Nov-30.
In America, rigged voting or not, this type of measure would never be available to vote on. Can you imagine the horror of a national ballot measure that called for the simultaneous and independent audit of all gold kept in all known locations at once?
There isn't one chance in hell that this crooked government would ever allow such a vote to take place. In Switzerland at least, they still maintain the illusion that people have a say in their government.
few in the US would understand what its all about.
Damnit ZH, please stop with these bearish articles
Hell, we should demand that the price go to zero, then we can get as much as we like for free. Hmm... maybe that could cause some issues...
All I want to know is "if gold were one dollar an ounce how valuable would that dollar be?" You may use all the explitive deleted's you wish in your answer.
First time I have been flush enough in fiats to acquire bullion bars of 50oz or over.
Confiscated church land was used to back the Assignat in the early French revolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
It did not work out well!
Very interesting.
Well, the problem with Amercan real estate is that the government is your "partner". Nuff said.
Sale in Ferguson!
http://news.yahoo.com/come-spring-sale-signs-expected-u-riot-hit-2147047...
Maybe the Chinese will buy in, take over the city council and clean the place up. Or not.
Germany did it and needed to go to war as a cover for their failing economic miracle.
Here is what Germany used as collateral to fund their war machine: future cash flows from the resources of the conquered Soviet Union.
Oops!
No, Germany was well financed to begin another war cycle.
England is still paying bonds off on the Boer War. Imagine how long EU countries will be paying down WWII bonds.
The financing of WWIII may not be as available as previous wars. WWIII will be the only major war fought after the end of the gold standard. With nukes, there's no betting on a winner/loser. The other countries we're fighting/stealing their gold, much better odds.
It's more about 'If I can't have it, you can't have it either', rather than a financial play. Almost as if there is no future past a decade or so . . .
Interesting times.
I believe the lnd south of the Rhine were taken by France as payment for Germany's debt and was retaken by Germany when they invaded in WWII. Would you like China to take California in payment for our debt?
I thought the Chinese were already taking chunks of the US. Using all those dollars they have before the other holders of stocks of dollars wake up to the problem of where to spend their dollars.
California is getting to be as radioactive as greater Tokyo, only a few years behind. California is a losing proposition. In a decade or less it'll be too hot for workers to frack what oil is left. There certainly won't be any local workers left.
They can't have California, but I'm happy to let them have all the Californians.
I am not buying till it goes under 1000. Then i won't stop until my bank calls me and tells me that I don't have suffecient funds in my account. I am ready. Drive the mother fucking price down. I will win and Mr CB you lose.
Price goes down, premiums will go up.
Just keep stackin'...
1 oz RCM silver maple: $0.99
Premium: $79.01
I'm holding out for $0.49
I have my 20 % allotment. I totally understand this game the CB'ers are playing and want to stick them with all my fiat currency. Lets get it on Janet, you dumb bitch.
Yes. You have the right idea. I'm with you.
Hell, if they go down below 'common sense,' nobody will sell. They will wait. Then there will be shortages.
There is plenty left in the American dresser drawers to collect
@Tinky : Gold is down again today because you can't eat it plus its very heavy, cannot be printed and no one shares with their closest buddies.
Now lets compare this to FED created paper:
So that should adequately answer your question on why gold is down 2.5% today.
Stacking opportunity :)
I would say I kiss my tolas each night before I go to bed, but considering they were probably designed to be shoved up and Indian's colon via the butthole, I'll pass.
But perhaps that legitimate smell test would be if I smell feces and curry...?
I thought I'd try to post at the top to any tin-foil hatters out there.
Anyone have pointers as to how much Au is being held in 'private' hands awaiting a new gold standard?
How much gold is being held by the old families for such a windfall?
BTW, lead works better than tin (I guess that others should judge.
Time to back up the fuckin' Antonov AN-225 cargo plane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGYaFMFU63U
"Land the AN-225 near the COMEX. Stand for delivery, Yuri."
"Yes, Vlad."
"As my Agent, I will have you backed up. Our warships will be conducting 'execrcises' in the Gulf.
somebody is full of shit and I am starting to question if all this bullshit news is a ploy to sell precious metals???? all I know is as usual I make an investment and I get fucked but unless I sell I don't lose. one day a new sucker rally will start and I will sell them my fools gold why fools because I feel like one a collapse my ass. well atleast the sun will come up and nothing gonna collapse back to work I go
Cue the gold smack down, please Swiss people vote yes this weekend!
Back up the truck......
Indeed. They cannot spin this many plates indefinitely.
Not quite yet. Today was easy for the scamsters to move the metals markets ahead of Sundays Swiss vote (just in case). If vote is no, as expected, then they will dump some more paper on the Comex Sunday night to really hammer the price. That will be the time to back up the truck, go fishing, and hope not to have one of those unfortunate boating accidents.
But some bankster DutchFuck said it's a 6000 year bubble!
Long Tulips!
What a pitiful joke this situation is...and I have followed this market almost daily since the mid 1990's.
Simply disgusting...
Somebody needs to rewrite the econ books and scrap the old guns and butter graphs. Suddenly, because it's hard to get, it's worth less...
The econ books have been proven to be worthless so far. Theories and guesses isn't science.
copped some old school Libertads today from my local dealer...
nibbling now instead of big purchases via Apmex as long as these MoneyChanger fucks keep playin with the phony paper price...game on mother fuckers...
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
cost?
$19 and change per oz...
when i buy less than 100 hundred ounces i buy from the LCD...
i bought so much from them they dont charge me tax on purchases under 1500.00
this offsets the shipping cost at APmex and it all averages out in the end even though the local dealers prices r a little higher normally...
It's also nice to see a human face and converse with a non-lemming. Last time I went to the store, we pulled up silver price history and speculated about the future. Much better than receiving a box you ordered on the Internet.
i hear ya...
the reason why i turned to Apmex is because as this shit hole of a nation collapses i wanted to move away from more generic bars/rounds and stack more well known refineries/products...
Lib's, and other products r hard to get most times at the local dealer and i become a little more picky about what goes into the inventory....
Right now, you can buy some Buffalo Rounds for $16.24 and silver shot for $16.05.
Always phyzz, never paper.
Good luck with those delivery orders....
Look out severe shortages mean sharply lower prices coming from Jamie Dimon and Loyd Blankfein.
Where the hell is Jon Nadler when you need someone to speak sensibly on the subject? The last year everything has been just as he predicted before the fools at Kitco exhibited their aversion to the truth.
How many of you gold braggarts backed up your trucks? Or were they already too full of silver...or were your pants just too damn full to do anything but stink?
You forgot the sarc tag dumbfuck.
+1 I'm one of your few upvotes. I'm still laughing at the guys who "backed up the truck" at $40 silver by cleaning out their 401k and selling stocks during the biggest bull market in history.
Hyperinflaton! Instead we get deflation. Some "experts" aren't they, with their 30 years of newsletter typing experience!
A sarc tag wasn't necessary. All of these PM predictions from King World News have been hot air, just like Al gore's scissor lift predicting global warming while we are freezing our butts off here a decade later.
It is just as easy for one expert to predict on the way down, as it is for another expert to predict on the way up.
The members of the tribe never cease to amaze me with their chicanery. These fucking parasites will never cease in their quest to destroy everything.
Ordo ab chao? Or Chao ab chao?
'The best way to make God laugh is to make plans' - anon.
All people have to do is wait for the money changers and COMEX to drop gold contract prices below $1,000/oz and demand deliver on all contracts.
Watch the fun as they cannot fill them. The bankster's game blows up.
Read CME Clear rules
It depends on which large customers are well armed. Not every defaulted customer wants paper.
Me, personally? I would never want to stiff a customer worth hundreds of millions of dollars. They all have numbers in their Rolodex that aren't clearly labeled . . .
Why wait?
Gold in backwardation and falling price only makes sense if those looking for the physical are...THE CENTRAL BANKS! It is therefore a simple reallocation of the expropriated gold among the central banks, while you still see the intervention for the rest of us.
I think it's been speculated for a long, long time that the CBs loaned their gold to the BBs, which then sold it (or wrote multiple derivative claims on it.)
At this point it could be the CBs or the BBs, or both trying to replace it, probably due to other CBs repatriating.
Low gold prices and the lowest ever GOFO make perfect sense to everyone in the gold supply chain but sellers and miners. CBs and BBs because it lets them re-acquire at lower prices, COMEX because it keeps the shorts solvent and/or reduces the cost of force majeure settlement if someone long stands for delivery.
I agree, though, the part of the puzzle here that makes sense is that very large buyers -- that already have control of the price -- are in the market for physical. The reason is somewhat immaterial at the moment. Without the ability to manipulate prices, obviously in a free market the prices would be much higher and would follow the normal suppy/demand curve.
That makes sense in Switzerland where the Bank is bigger than the country...but not in the USA.
The USA has the world's reserve currency and the bulk of global energy supplies now. It makes no sense to lend to some worthless private bank that always demands a bailout anyways. "Get yer own gold bitch...we're tonning it here."
Obviously they are free to invest in our "Space Launch System." I know I am. More than likely though they are long all commodities and short the entire yield curve.
Would you like me to explain why?
could it be that the trust between the western central banks is breaking down, each wanting their gold as physical and in their own hands?
What Fekete was talking about all along!
only stock go up - all world go down
Yeah. We all know what GOFO stands for.
?Gold for October delivery?
Hey China. Can you spare an ounce? I'll give you some more fiat if you can.
An American, not US subject.
China's cashing in their US fiat for real money.
I think the past tense -- cashed in their US fiat for real money -- is the operative here. What's going on now is the CB/BBs trying to replace what China sucked out of the West's system, and the western CB/BBs realizing they've rehypothecated themselves into a monetary crisis they're despterately trying to avert.
What's the possibility that the gold going East is a 'tribute', and the 'tribute' is about to go away?
The Chinese and Mongols are fairly genetically related, and the Khans didn't react well when the 'tribute' would dry up.
Seek, if there is a international financial crisis, what is to stop several partners from pooling their PMs and becoming their own 'banks?'
At least on an unofficial basis??
Nothing, and arguably it's already happening with the realignment of the RMB as a settlement currency.
We can also just simply move back to using gold based settlement for international transactions, as has been done pretty much forever except since 1971 to now.
Black Friday.
Where everything is on sale.
Gold, silver and oil, and oily Swiss politicians
Thought I was done my Black Friday shopping early this morning, but had to grab some more Eagles and Libertads this afternoon. If they hold the price down here there will be a flood of buying in a few weeks as Bonuses and 401K money hits the market.
all i know is i can't wait for silver to dip below ten for the last time it will ever be there again. i have been nibbling since the price dropped below new production costs but they may have the guns to force this below 10 before letting it go.
this game of pound the paper to buy phyzz cheap shouldn't fool anyone into selling.
Naturally (in this upside down world) on news of negative GOFO rates, the HUI dives down 8%. It makes perfect nonsense, doesn't it?
India imported about 102t gold in the first half of Nov...suggests import of the precious metal will surpass Oct. record import of 150t'
India has been importing gold at a record pace. So it's time for the Fed to attack the Rupee again - maybe, push it down to Rs 65 or Rs 67 per dollar.
So why is this synthetic shadow conduit rehypothecated gold not available to re-rehypothecate in the system anymore? Has it hit some type of limit, or are some parties calling in their gold which actually sits somewhere back along the chain? Or is the gold-swap market breaking in some other way?
Trust.
There was no doubt some really sketchy/illegal things going on but the CBs didn't mind as long as they were a part of it and had complete awareness. More than likely one or more of the BBs selling the gold they borrowed from the CBs did something unauthorized that was over the top out of greed, and the CBs learned about it (think about the recent price fixing investigations) and flipped, and now it's a rush to repatriate holdings because the last ones out are the bagholders.
So... the CBs either don't trust each other or the BBs and they're recalling everything for a hard audit to see what's really going on.
Option #2, they've seen the numbers and know the system will either collapse or have to be saved by bail-in within the next few years, and they're repatriating to keep the gold from gettting sucked into another country's bail-in scheme. This ultimately boils down to trust as well, but it's probably more about optics, when the SHTF, it will look really, really bad to be taking Ma and Pa Kettle's savings account while the banks ship gold back to Euroslavia, best to get it out early.
Option #3 - All of the above. And worse.
"Which, of course, is why it will never be allowed to happen."
Prophetic. A "No" vote will send paper gold down to sub $1100, maybe even sub $1000 and possibly within hours which is funny because its supposedly fully "expected". GOFO rates may hit new record negative territory. The CB's will laugh.
The gold shorts have a death wish...there won't BE any real gold left...anywhere.
Reminds me of the scene in "Chicken Run" where the two mice are watching the hens try to fly:
Mouse one: "They's going to kill themselves!!!"
Mouse two: "Wanna watch?"
Well, if this keeps up for a long time, gold will be worth very little. I know: it's only the paper price but, unfortunately, that is also the sale price of the gold in our rafters.
We've long since seen that the traditional factors which should control the price no longer apply and that paper controls. If you need any further proof that this bullshit is deep, look no further than the dollar's strength today following OPEC announcement yesterday. That should have tanked the dollar and boosted gold. The exact opposite happened.
As long as we are awash in cheap money, actual assets will be trashed. Everything is bullish for paper assests: Good news, bad news, they go up. If it were announced that there was only one actual ounce of gold available world wide, the price would crash to zero and the S&P would hit 5k.
"That should have tanked the dollar and boosted gold."
Why? It was the exact reaction I was expecting from such an announcement (and the exact announcement as well). Keeping the spiggots open when there is currently a surplus (due to demand destruction) is obviously bad for price. As oil falls, the dollar rises to help "compensate" the Saudis for their loss.
Bullish on physical...
In a recent interview Ben Davies of Hinde Capital actually CALLED the bottom in "the gold price" at US$1130. First time I'd heard anyone prepared to really call it...suspect he's right.
Sorry - He's wrong. Gold is yhe investment of the mentally ill.
One ounce gold American Eagle selling for $51.99 over spot. Premiums have risen sharply.
Take a look at these: 2014 1 oz Gold Canadian Howling Wolf .99999 BU
Your new owners prefer a higher purity...
Far as I know, a "1 ounce" gold piece from any sovereign has 1 oz of gold in it (except for that Krugerrand issue of a year or two ago).
The purity is in a sense irrelevant. If the gold piece is for example "only" 99% pure then it has some harder metal added to resist scratching (gold is, afterall, relatively soft). In that case the gold coin with additives would weigh more than 1 oz. If the gold coin is .9999 pure, there's still 1 ounce of gold in it. It's just that any additives were left out, the coin is more susceptible to scratching.
Anyone know better? Feel free to jump in. I'm not a coin dealer and my coins, unfortunately, were lost in a boating accident...... Ahhh, actually NOT. Everyone uses that hoary cliche but the truth is that any future government repression of PMs will likely take the form of restrictions/taxes on buying/selling. And since the police state is up, operational and becoming more invasive every day, it won't be difficult for governments to monitor the majority of PM transactions.
The above discussion of coin purity probably is moot because unless society devolves into a Mad Max scenario (90+% die, modern technology withers), PMs aren't likely to be passed hand-to-hand. Yeah, sure it's a nice option in regular conditions if only as backup for a regional grid down situation and to keep intrusive, rapacious governments at bay (more difficult to track).... but let's face it, if gold is the last man standing, no way a world of 7 Billion can pass physical gold/silver as a means of payment. It just doesn't scale.
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What really needs debate are issues such as:
1) if a return to a Gold Standard was seriously being considered, should the rate of exchange between countries currency be pegged or floating. Should a country even attempt to peg its fiat paper/digital currency to gold? Perhaps Gold should be used only at the Central Bank level as a reserve, or perhaps as tier 1 collateral in the banking system. Many permutations are possible (and that's not even getting into the can of worms which is the fractional reserve, interest paying banking system).
2) Should digital gold/silver (i.e. digital representation of physical gold/silver) be trade-able/spendable and if so what form should this take? This assumes of course that trusted, reputable storage/banking entities (private or public) exist (that should be straightforward if Government protection of criminals is extinguished).
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When I read articles and comments on web sites, I don't see people being realistic about Gold & Silver. Instead there's this assumption from PM believers that PMs are going to the moon and the subsequent working details are superfluous. Or there's those firm in their belief that grid down anarchy is inevitable and will be long term (i.e. 90 some percent die, humanity struggles in a middle ages type environment). It seems to divide into those two camps and very few give any thought to how things should be structured for the greater good.
Assuredly, any void in implementation will be viewed as an opportunity by the psychopaths among us to game any new system. Soon enough we'd be back to yet another hijacked system.
Gold & Silver aren't panaceas. It's the details behind a monetary system that warrant scrutiny.
If society devolves into Mad Max, bullets will be the best source of wampum. He who has the most and largest bullets will end up with most of the gold, just as it is today, rotten forceful governments.
I view the "Mad Max" scenario as low probability.
True, there might be some very unsettled conditions going forward, but I see little evidence that the PowersThatShouldn'tBe will lose effective control. They've gone to great lengths to beef up the police states.
Control, Control, CONTROL!
All one has to do is consider what happened friday Nov28th going into a U.S. holiday weekend and the important Swiss referendum.
PMs got smashed, U.S. core stocks mysteriously RAMPED at the close.
See the message being sent to all weak minds: PMs BAD, status quo instruments GOOD.
Anyone still think that the MoneyPower/Cartel forces are losing control?
Yes, they are quite clearly losing control.
As dearly as i wish it, I don't see it.
In my above post I gave evidence as to why.
If you feel different, do post your reasoning, simply stating something doesn't make it so.