This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Stocks Have Been More Overvalued Only ONCE in the Last 100 Years
Stocks today are overvalued by any reasonable valuation metric.
If you look at the CAPE (cyclical adjusted price to earnings) the market is registers a reading of 27(anything over 15 is overvalued). We’re now as overvalued as we were in 2007. The only times in history that the market has been more overvalued was during the 1929 bubble and the Tech bubble.
Please note that both occasions were “bubbles” that were followed by massive collapses in stock prices.
Source: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Then there is total stock market cap to GDP, a metric that Warren Buffett’s calls tge “single best measure” of stock market value.
Today this metric stands at roughly 130%. It’s the highest reading since the DOTCOM bubble (which was 153%). Put another way, stocks are even more overvalued than they were in 2007 and have only been more overvalued during the Tech Bubble: the single biggest stock market bubble in 100 years.
Source: Advisorperspectives.com
1) Investor sentiment is back to super bullish autumn 2007 levels.
2) Insider selling to buying ratios are back to autumn 2007 levels (insiders are selling the farm).
3) Money market fund assets are at 2007 levels (indicating that investors have gone “all in” with stocks).
4) Mutual fund cash levels are at a historic low (again investors are “all in” with stocks).
5) Margin debt (money borrowed to buy stocks) is near record highs.
In plain terms, the market is overvalued, overbought, overextended, and over leveraged. This is a recipe for a correction if not a collapse.
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
You can pick up a FREE copy at:
http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
- advertisements -
I am direct to a project Funder who is also known as private lender they specialized in bank instrument lease and sales their funds is purely earned from private and corporate investment portfolios without criminal origin.With the group capital fund which are specifically for lease/sale in form of bank instrument. The Financial institution can finance your signatory projects such as Real Estate Development, Aviation Service, Agriculture Finance, Petroleum Importation, Telecommunication, construction of Dams or Bridges and all kind of projects.
The bank instrument can be use for purchase of goods from any manufacturer irrespective of their location. It can also serve as collateral with any bank in the world to secure loan for your project or to establish line of credit with your bank. We offer Bank Guarantee, all are issue from AAA Rated bank such as Deutsche Bank, HSBC Bank, UBS Zurich, Barclay's Bank, Standard Chartered Bank E.T.C. For more information, Endeavour to contact me as your convenient time.
DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:
1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC)
2. Total Face Value: Min of 1M Euro/USD (One Million Euro/USD) to Max of 5B
Euro/USD (Five Billion Euro/USD).
3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, London or Deutsche Bank Frankfurt or any Top 25 WEB
4. Age: One Year, One Day
5. Leasing Price:3 .5% of Face Value plus (0.5+X)% commission fees to
brokers.
6. Delivery: Bank to Bank SWIFT.
7. Payment: MT-103.
8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.
All relevant business information will be provided upon request. Please let me know which of the services that interests you? so that I can provide you with more information and procedure. Brokers and Consultants are also welcomed. If Interested kindly contact me via Email:~ Mr. Ezzatollah Kianersi........ Email: (bgsblc.kianersi@gmail.com) My Skype ID is ..................: bgsblc.kianersi
Kianersi
I wanna say "it's different this time." Why?
Because the FED wasn't in destroying alternative investments and distorting markets with helicopter drops in '29, '01, and '07. They might not have been free markets back then but they were a helluva lot closer than the current day manipulations. We are now witnessing the deflation that should have taken place absent QE and ZIRP in 08.
I think they have tried to engineer a soft landing for themselves. (bankers)
So how can you predict any kind of collapse when the sheep have absolutely nothing except the stock market to invest in? You can't. Until that changes- this POS can only go up some more.
have these guys ever been right on anytihing?
I am reminded of someone yelling "FIRE" in the crowded theatre repeatedly when no such fire exists, of course one day the bitch will actually be on fire.
For whatever it's worth, the fact that we have far more managed economic data these days versus the historical norm translates into an underestimation of the severity of the equities/GDP ratio.
In addition to manipulation by the government-financial complex other forces are converging to further distort and disconnect Wall Street from the American economy. Why American equities continue to rise is very important, more is at force here than the usual causes which might include a pre-election and post-election rally. This is more than the continuation of a double down and let it ride mentality that has been ratcheting the market higher while reenforced by media hype.
Most analysts agree that money from countries with weakening currencies is flowing out of the troubled areas and the U.S. is receiving most of the benefit. The Japanese as well as many Chinese and Europeans know with so much money floating around and few safe harbors America is becoming the most comfortable option for temporary investing their money. More on why this should be viewed as a sign of massive instability rather than a reason to celebrate in the article below. Thing could turn ugly very fast.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-american-equities-are-rising.html
No worries. The chart only shows a 27 and we can go all the way to 44. Buy now. Stawks are cheep!
Timing the reset is hard.
this is an interesting metric. lots of debate around it though. if you figure 100% is over valued and 50% is under valued you could argue 30-50% over valuation in price.
it looks like the u.s stock market is going even higher, gold even lower, ... a 30-40% correction is becoming more evident in my crystal ball.
I'm with Dr. Faber
USD index heading to 95
gold to 1000
ok - Good point in your crystal ball.....
Is that a 30-40% correction AFTER a 200% increase from current levels? OR a 30-40% correction based on CURRENT levels?
If the former then is that really a correction?
Hmmmmmmmmmmm
that analysis only works if you believe this is not a devalued currency market and the values reflect real inflated value.
Good catch!
Buy the dip ,it will rally to 5000...stupid elite money games will fail...LOFL
Futures green in t-2 minutes.
The current peak is a measure of the destruction of the USD by the Fed. Need to normalize the curves to pre-Fed dollars. Or Gold.
You cannot normalize these. dollars / dollars = a no unit ratio. The value of the USD has no impact on them, since stock price, earnings and GDP are all measured with it.
aside from the historical element, the S&P500 divergence from commodity prices is absolutely remarkable
check out "yellen's full retard creation" in a chart
http://bullandbearmash.com/pending-stock-market-train-wreck-deflation-pi...