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Oil-Producing Nations Currency Carnage Continues, Russia Intervening

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Nigerian Naira and Russian Ruble have been the hardest hit in the last few days as oil-producing nations across the world see their currencies come under increasing pressure. With both hitting new record lows against the USDollar (with the Naira at 184.5,  already exceeding the recently devalued currencies upper peg band at around 176 per USD), chatter this morning is that the Russian central bank is actively intervening in the Ruble market after it hit 53.9 in early US trading.

 

The currency carnage since oil prices peaked

 

and desk chatter is the Russian Central Bank is intervening as RUB neared 54 to the USD

 

As Bloomberg reports, it's not all terrible news for Russia,

A weaker ruble benefits the budget because it boosts export revenue in local-currency terms, helping offset the slide in Brent. Russia relies on oil and gas for 50 percent of budget revenue.

 

Bank of Russia probably won’t intervene as the “ruble’s devaluation balances out the falling oil price,” Evgeny Shilenkov, the head of trading at Veles Capital LLC in Moscow, said by phone Nov. 28. “The currency market is more realistic after the free-float and reflects the actual oil price.”

 

Nabiullina is weighing policy options as she seeks to keep lending flowing in an economy on the brink of recession, while avoiding a deeper currency slump that could spark a rush among citizens to switch their ruble savings into dollars.

 

Russia faces a 70 percent chance of recession, a survey of economists from Oct. 30 showed. The economy of the world’s biggest energy exporter has been weakened by U.S. and European sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s role in Ukraine, where pro-Russian rebels battle government troops.

 

“The pressure on the ruble is less about the conduct of Russian monetary policy and more about plunging oil prices,” Nicholas Spiro, head of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said by e-mail Nov. 28.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:22 | 5504116 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Does anyone else smell panic just under the surface?

<Frenzied Black Friday mobs in the oil fields and currency pits.>

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:23 | 5504126 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yes.

Is the "Bullard Effect" on deck this week?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:28 | 5504140 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It's time to start juggling like a clown, forget alphabet soup, this is numbers soup.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:39 | 5504157 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Does anyone else smell panic just under the surface?

 

Nervous as a virgin in a cathouse.....tried to warn them.......no one listens to me.

 

Although I probably wouldn't either.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:50 | 5504176 actionjacksonbrownie
actionjacksonbrownie's picture

Isn't the u.s. and oil producing nation???

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:00 | 5504199 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Somewhat.......we've still got the Gulf shutoff.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:14 | 5504288 Titus
Titus's picture

December 2013:

Goldman Vs Gazpromia: Russian Sovereign Risk Downgraded By Goldman Sachs

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-20/goldman-vs-gazpromia-russian-so...

This needs to be reread. GS took the first shot. Banksters Zionist war, not the people's war.

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:10 | 5504239 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

Isnt it obvious that the same PPT that props up the S&P and slams the gold market is raiding the Brent and WTI markets to punish Putin?

 

The simplest answer is oftentimes the best one.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:56 | 5504189 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

No, I don't think anyone's panicing just yet.

85% see all of this as entertainment- for them, Ferguson and Ukraine are just monkey-riots. How cute!

Another 10% are just glad that gas prices are down.

4% rub their hands together and say, "Our plan is working!"

1% are hoping against hope this is all bullish for gold (it isn't).

 I read somewhere your sense of smell disappears five days before you die. No-one smells anything.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:27 | 5504141 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Global deflation is here.

How's it looking for the petro-buck?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:36 | 5504154 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Never looked better, now those trying to control the buck, it's not looking so good.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:19 | 5504685 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

As soon as those dollar markets opened prices turned right around, yes?

I say again this is a price fixing scheme.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:56 | 5504193 Drummond
Drummond's picture

With all this obvious movement away from the US$ I'm surprised that things are not deteriorating more rapidly. I suppose I thought we would be going off a cliff by now but it seems this is a drawn out battle of attrition where everyone dies a slow financial death.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:05 | 5504228 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Better than for the ruble... or the euro or the yen and yuan so whats you point Pointdexter?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:17 | 5504250 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

The dollar is supported by oil sales in dollars, enforced by the big military and covert actions, supported by the revised Bretton-Woods system, which is in late days, and supported by America having more of what it needs to survive than most countries.

"Cleanest dirty shirt" for the moment. How's that look as we go through global economic reset?

The $US will need something other than enforced oil sales in $US for future support.

Better, Winston?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 16:28 | 5521629 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Yes it is better but still the dollar will be the cleanest dirty shirt for the forseeable future, and no the chinese nor the russians will be con=ming out with a currency backed by anything other than bad breath...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:23 | 5504123 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

It's Nigerian NairA, not NairU!

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:26 | 5504130 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

So sad,

and Vlad had just asked Santa and the Supreme Soviet for a new submarine fleet.

Que sera, sera.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:37 | 5504158 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Probably should be trying to get his money back from France.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:38 | 5504160 pendragon
pendragon's picture

the putin fluffers are giving this thread a miss i see

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:52 | 5504178 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

Obama fluffers should be over at yahoo cheering his latest executive order.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:25 | 5504269 pendragon
pendragon's picture

yeah that's probably where they are.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:22 | 5504263 Titus
Titus's picture

You're a terrorist if you don't stand up, salute, and vote!

FYI, supporting real money and the only power in the world standing up to the aggressive military expansion of the US/Zionist empire doesn't mean someone's a Putin fluffer any more than liking a particular QB means you want your hands all up in some 350 lb center's asshole all day.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:11 | 5505196 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Intervention, yes, but expansion?

Backing the removal of influence by the only semi-moral power in the world DOES make you a Putin fluffer. Nature abhors a vacuum and there is a rapidly expanding power vacuum in the world that WILL be filled with a truly amoral, imperialist Sino-Russian confederacy that will make the US "aggression" look like the toddler taking a toy away from a playmate.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:40 | 5504563 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

The Weekend Okhrana dudes are off until Satruday. A few of the useful idiots are still on board as volunteers, however.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:27 | 5504721 Jonathan Equine...
Jonathan Equine Phallus's picture

but you neocon jackholes are on it like flies to shit, eh?

It's cute how you don't know anything about global politics, or, you know, economics, but figure USreal is both the good guy and the ineluctable leader/s of the world.

 

Stay tuned.  Your neocon overlords, if all goes their way, will be a disaster for the people of the earth.

 

Except for a chosen few....

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:26 | 5504137 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Trade wars, currency wars, world war.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:04 | 5504214 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Currency wars, trade wars and shoosting wars in that order... We are in trade wars now as currency wars have been on going for some time.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 13:07 | 5504884 MansaMusa
MansaMusa's picture

Wake me up when a black flag event happens..

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:26 | 5504138 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Vlad with a wet hose...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:28 | 5504143 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture

Zero Hedgers, please Western Union Vlad some dollars this morning at your earliest opportunity.

He needs real currency (i.e., not rubles) to pay the men who are standing suicide watch on him round the clock.

In the meantime, for those keeping the faith....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lxMglj8LuM

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:37 | 5504161 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You musta heard that on the web, they can't lie on the internet, I heard that on the web.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:03 | 5504213 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Wait till we get ObamaWeb......it's gonna be really expensive and it won't work worth a crap.....enjoy now while you still can.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:03 | 5504196 Titus
Titus's picture

Fortunately Putin's got gas and oil, real things that trade for real currency and real money (i.e. gold).

The value of the dollar comes from backing of the full faith and credit of the private cabal of bankers known as the Federal Reserve.

I'll take oil & gas & nukes over toiletpaper any day. Yeah this smarts a bit for the population but after the darkest night comes the brighter day, and I'd rather snuggle up to a couple of skinny, nipping out Russian chicks who have real life experiences than your fat sister and the TV at night.

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:20 | 5504257 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

the value of the dollar comes from things like 17k ton boom boats lurking in the ocean, powered by a lump of uranium the size of my fist... and have yet to come in for refueling for the past 20 years... so there's the nuke thing, I think the crew at Naval Reactors has that covered...

last time I checked, US is also a hair away from becoming the top petro producer in the world... the US also mines about 230 metric tons of the precious yellow metal out of the ground, which is more than Russia last time I checked...

when will you fifth column NeoComm numbskulls finally wake up and see the light... everything you said is wrong...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:29 | 5504277 Titus
Titus's picture

The value of the dollar comes from people and countries willing to accept the dollar. That trend is changing, hence the scare back in now. But it's too late, the scales have already begun tipping.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 13:08 | 5504861 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

you couldn't be more wrong if you tried

edit: seriously, you idiots... gold, oil, and nukes get called out as "real", it's easy to demonstrate that the US has all three in spades if "real" backing is what you're looking for, yet all I see is no real counter to plain facts and a bunch of knee-jerk downvotes...

you know what I call that? emotional response... oh yeah, and -losing-

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:06 | 5505439 Titus
Titus's picture

"you idiots, seriously"

you know what I call that? emotional response...  yeah...

You know what else the US has? Trillions in obligations and exponentially growing debt. Why do you think the US (banking system included) is out trying to rob other countries of their wealth or right to fairly sell natural resources at the market rate (i.e. sanctions) through black ops and subversive regime changes?

Hint, it's not because of an inherent need to bring democracy and freedom to the world, that's just the sales pitch.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 13:29 | 5504974 MansaMusa
MansaMusa's picture

@post turtle saver:  True but what happens when countries ("Belgium") stops buying treasuries and we eventually default on our debt payments?   What's Odumbo going to do, nuke th new $50 billion BRICS bank?  I doubt it

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:56 | 5505401 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

hold your breath waiting for that to happen, you'll turn blue in the process

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:46 | 5505342 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture

Vlad's got all the ingredients in his lap for a full-blown currency crisis, Bob:  Recent past defaults; a currency fund shrinking by the day; foreign debt obligations growing by the day; a mass exodus of investment capital; falling GDP; rising interest rates; and no appetite to loan Russia emergency funds except at punitive (9-10%) rates.

It's not going to be a surprise to anyone except you when it comes.  :-) 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:38 | 5504146 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The pressure on the ruble is less about the conduct of Russian monetary policy and more about plunging oil prices,” Nicholas Spiro, head of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said by e-mail Nov. 28."

nonsense. the real pressure on the Rouble - and mind you, I don't defend Russia as a matter of course - is that there is an humungous amount of cash that itches to be set on the betting table of the FX casino, despite all reports or it being rigged and FX traders from banks getting a hand slapped, from time to time

and this money bets on a Rouble going down, a classic bear party going on, where if you have enough bears, a central bank becomes cautious (FX reserves becoming precious, even when it's USDs), and so defends less it's preferred levels, and switches back and forth between tactical and strategic outlooks

as I repeated often here: it sucks to be a small or medium currency if the Masters of the Universe have set their bets on you. plenty of followers, even among ZH readers, that just love to chip in in the bloodbath

sure, the oil price going down is a bitch for Russia. but in this discussion over the Rouble not even once someone noted the ultra-low levels of Russian sovereign debt, for example. or, as Spiro notes, the Russian monetary policies. nothing really matters beyond bears chasing a wounded Russian bear, I mean Rouble

yes, it's international speculation. of the bad kind. led by banksters, followed by legions of free people thinking that it's their "divine" right to participate to such things. long live market fundamentalism/s

just have a look for example at the current speculative levels against the EUR, again at the second highest level in history. why? well, what is this money to do? it has to chase something, doesn't it?

it's the same money (actually excess CB credit) and people that would like to have "moar" FX crosses to bet upon, and so have their usual discussion on why the EUR should break, making their world even "moar" profitable

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:07 | 5504838 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

Ghordius The Great,

Are you referring to short selling for purely speculative purposes ?  Then I can follow you.

But what do you do if you are a holder of Roubles ?  Do you not sell ?  I am sure plenty of Russians are selling their own currency as well. 

You really believe it is all overdone, do you buy Roubles ?

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:32 | 5504151 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture
Ruble heading for biggest one-day fall since 1998 as oil drops below $70

The ruble looked set for its steepest one-day fall since the Russian financial crisis of 1998 on Monday, plunging more than 6 percent against the dollar before recovering to losses of around 4 percent.

Russia's central bank may have started to intervene on the foreign exchange market to curb ruble losses, three traders said on Monday.

"It may have been central bank," a trader at a Western bank told Reuters. The central bank declined to comment, noting that president Putin was on a suicide watch and Russia's economic situation was 'fluid'.

Early Monday, the ruble was down 3.9 percent at 52.45 against the dollar and 3.8 percent lower at 65.39 against the euro, hitting fresh record lows.

The dollar-based RTS stock index was down 3.1 percent to 944 points, having touched a five-year low of 930. In contrast the ruble-based MICEX, which benefits from a weaker ruble, was up 2.1 percent to 1,571 points, a 2014 high.

Oil benchmark Brent futures were hovering just above a five-year low, at $69.6 per barrel, weighed down by weak manufacturing data from China and last week's decision by OPEC not to cut oil production to support prices.

OPEC's shock decision means markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of cheap oil for an extended period, causing a fundamental reassessment of Russian asset prices, analysts said.

Oil and gas account for about two thirds of Russia's exports and half of federal budget revenues, making its economy and asset prices heavily dependent on global energy prices.

The ruble crashed through the psychologically significant, and until recently unthinkable, level of 50 against the dollar on Friday, bringing its losses since mid-year to 35 percent.

"Support for the ruble at present can only come from stabilization of the oil price. Other factors now look secondary and of little significance," Globex Bank senior trader Igor Zelentsov said in a note.

He said market expectations that the central bank would intervene when the ruble hit 50 against the dollar "have lost their actuality in connection with the sharp and substantial change in the price of oil," noting that at current oil prices the ruble was likely to weaken to the 53-55 range.

Standard Bank analyst Tim Ash said in a note that he was surprised by the lack of central bank intervention since its decision to float the ruble last month.

&lt;p&gt;Kilduff: Oil could test $35 in mid-Q1&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Discussing what&amp;#039;s behind the plunging price of crude, and just how low it can go, with John Kilduff, Again Capital founder.&lt;/p&gt;

"Logically one only has to conclude that the weaker ruble is part of the Russian authorities' policy responses to lower oil prices and sanctions (over Ukraine) as it helps prop up growth and helps keep the budget on track by boosting the ruble value of dollar oil revenues," he said in a note.

The central bank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market since it floated the ruble on Nov. 10, saying it would do so only if it considered the ruble's fall a threat to financial stability.

"Well, let's see if the current collapse of the ruble is considered such a threat," Profit investment house head analyst, Gleb Zadoya, said in a morning note.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:40 | 5504162 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You're compareing apples and oranges, they have a currency backed by gold, we have not one.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:42 | 5504167 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

they have a currency backed by gold

 

When were they planning to announce that?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:07 | 5504457 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

The ruble is not backed by gold. But is it backed by oil?

It would seem yes, since the devauation of the ruble and the drop in the price of oil are in lockstep.

To make my point, here is a chart of the Saudi riyal vs indian rupee:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=SAR&to=INR

As the article mentioned Nigeria is having the same problem.

What's the fundamental here? As Cog asked above, is there any panic in the air? Not from Russia it seems. Here is a chart that explains why the Russians are so calm:

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Oil consumption is projected to be around 94.5 million barrrels per day by the middle of 2015. The trend is a steady upwards trend in consumption, led by emerging (BRICS) economies.

Forex is all complicated fun and games, making big bets with other people's money, and there is lots of adrenalin there, but does forex speculation have the power to buck soid fundamentals? My guess is no.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that energy demand puts a solid floor under both oil prices and the ruble. I can only go down so far. I think Putin and Nabuillina know this. I think that a forex gambit to destroy the ruble is the evil work of the United States and Goldman Sachs, who hope that Russia is just like Greece. But, of course, Russia is not Greece.

My prediction: Russia will suffer some pain, but that pain will be nothing compared to the damage this ill-advised strategy will have on the US. This is a classic backfire in the making.

Here is the scenario:

1. Oil heads towards 45/barrel, taking ruble with it. The dollar gets stronger in equal measure. The result? Oil imports to the US surge. Domestic production is utterly destroyed. Low gas prices give a boost to US consumer, but not as much as economists predict. Amazingly, the US consumer uses the windfall to pay down debt. Hard to imagine, but true.

2. Essentially, the oil price drop hurts the US economy. Consumer spending does not rise enough. The strong dollar smashes any productive capacity increase in the US. Job growth is little to none. Thus, the consumer is in stasis. One ting gets better, while another gets worse. The meltdown in the tight oil patch and the implosion of that bubble wreaks havoc in the oil industry. This carnage may be somewhat contained, and may not spread to the greater markets, but it will be significant in a localized way.

3. A strong dollar only helps the US buy fuel. The low oil price may hep Japan much more than the US, as it will boost exports. The low oil price will destroy any semblance of a balance of trade in the US. We luv trade deficits.

4. A strong dollar will send investors charging into the US bond market, chasing yields. A strong dollar will push interest rates up, at precisely the wrong time, and for precisely the wrong reasons. The looming threat of higher interest ates will throw a wet blanket on the domestic economy and exacerbate the tight oil destruction. The time lag will, off course make the Krugmans miss the cause and effect relationship between the end of QE, the secret plot between Kerry and the Saudis to boost production, the subsequent drop in oil prices and the rise in dollar strength as the causes of the bond market rout.

5. Russia will in the meantime use the weak ruble to boost domestic productive capacity.

6. When oil prices rebound, the world will be a different place. The US will be a gutted shell, while Russia will emerge stronger than ever. The reverse in oil prices will hurt the US  just as much as the decline did previously. It's called being on the wrong side of the resonance curve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5ZzktAFJK4

#9 Out

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:08 | 5505454 Titus
Titus's picture

Fingers crossed for no Russian Spring...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 18:16 | 5506205 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Five-Eyed Trolling, aren't we?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:30 | 5505548 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

Good thing we're not looking at the Rupee vs. Rial over a period like 2 or 5 years...

 

If oil heads towards $50 per barrel for the near future, or even goes lower, Russia is already hemmoraging BILLIONS every week, considering where their break-even point is.
At $50, they will be exhausted, completely, of foreign reserves... and no one is going to fucking even LOOK AT shit Roubles... NO. ONE.

At that point, Karelia, Chechnya, Siberia and Yakutsk will all be separate countries, or a de facto part of China.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 17:59 | 5506159 Titus
Titus's picture

I'd bet rather on martial law and all of those good things that made the soviet union so nice.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:55 | 5504186 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture

No currencies are currently gold-backed, Bob. 

Do some research before exposing the empty interior of your cranium.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:39 | 5504164 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I love a good gang war when they go to the mattresses.

Sure, there will be innocent bystanders killed when the shooting starts, but they don't count.

Uncle Sam looks like he has the Bear by the balls for now, but when that Bear starts with the claws...

 

Or could it be just be an unfortunate coincidence (for producers) that nobody will cut production in an oil glut?

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 09:54 | 5504183 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Suicide watch ??????........WTF

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:15 | 5504251 Titus
Titus's picture

Just more CIA/Hasabara propaganda. Attack the reputation of the leader, just as was done to Quadaffi & Hussain. Zionist Jonathan Stuart Leibowitz (aka Jon Stuart) is very effective at this. If you check out his Quadaffi and Putin videos (Putin from earlier this year, Quadaffi from right before or after his torture and murder), his tactic is always the same. Discuss honesty about the person that shocks and causes respect, for example they are both actual gifted leaders with high approval ratings who unified warring tribes and oligarchs. Then call them eccentric and crazy, or rather brand them as such, and as brutal dicatators hated by the people.

His videos always have a patter of the audience laughing in the beginning of the segment, then going quiet, and in the case of Quadaffi they turned negative as the Zionist propaganda against him became too pointed.

Amerikan Patriot is just another troll creating a false image of a leader sitting on a large quantity of national resources with high approval ratings.

Confessions of an Economic Hitman is a good read that outlines some of these strateiges and their purpose.

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:39 | 5504776 Jonathan Equine...
Jonathan Equine Phallus's picture

Best not to feed such trolls.

There's occasionally some solid criticism, or critique of Russia, happy to read that, and though I think ZH's niche is an alternative to the neocon/interventionist narrative, hence making ZH more accurate about what really happened - you also want to avoid an echo chamber.

But a half-wit cherry picking and cheerleading bad news for the ruble, because he's obtuse enough to believe that the people running the American {and Israeli and UK} governments are the good guys - there's no real point to trying to engage. 

 

I don't think anyone believed that Russia, which initially tried to work within the system, would not have some pain if squeezed out of it by the American regime - which has killed, what - maybe 2 million people in the past 20 years, for freedom?   And there's no end in sight to the hyperinterventionism based on lies, the continued ass-kissing of the Israel Firster crowd, deficit spending to fund the wars/gear that is what really props up the dollar, and to give the illusion of a sound society with functioning social safety nets.

 

Where's the inflation?  Well - the large banks have continued to sit on hundreds of billions in cash, allowing them to gobble up stock and real estate and, in the case of several outfits, buy all sorts of real assets like copper mines and railroads.

The transfer of real wealth [real asse ts, not based on debt or promises to pay] from small business and the working class to the banks is precisely what the Fed wants.  The enemy of the day is inevitably the newest Hitler, football and riots provide bread and circus, and no one looks behind them to see just who it is fucking them in the ass.

 

It ain't Putin, and it ain't Ukrainian separatists - it's the Fed, the bought and paid for US Congress, and the neocon shills who lies us into Iraq, were joined by neoliberals in lying us into 'kinetic action' in Libya, tried to lie us into a war with Syria and Iran, and have not given up lying.

 

The people running the US government are the biggest enemy the American people have.  Everything else is a distraction.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:08 | 5505185 ChiangMai
ChiangMai's picture

…the American regime - which has killed, what - maybe 2 million people in the past 20 years, for freedom?…

Earth: 248 armed conflicts after WW2; US started 201 (81%), killing 30 million

 

And while I'm at it, about 80 legitimate governments, most of them democracies, overthrown since 1953:

America's Coup Machine: Destroying Democracy Since 1953

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:15 | 5505492 Titus
Titus's picture

But a half-wit cherry picking and cheerleading bad news for the ruble, because he's obtuse enough to believe that the people running the American {and Israeli and UK} governments are the good guys - there's no real point to trying to engage.

Good point, except he's not a half wit. He's being paid to write calculated misinformation. It's just true enough that if you haven't fact checked and used standard reasoning abilities, before degredation via pharmaceuticals, factory food, and TV.

The people running the US government are the biggest enemy the American people have.  Everything else is a distraction.

So so true. Except Amerikan Patriot is a paid shill for the anti-Russia crowd, so I consider him part of the problem.

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 17:36 | 5506088 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Notice that Steward/Liebowitz and the other hasbaras never stray far from theprescribed narrative. Superficially yes, but the basic message does not change.  If Putin is to be taken down they'll do it in their own way.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:04 | 5504197 Kina
Kina's picture

It would be a worry if Russia had to gets energy and natural resources from overseas.....oh wait...

 

Not the same effect when you source a lot of those expensive inputs domestically.

Now Japan........

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:05 | 5504224 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

US Shale Oil businesses will be going bust. Someday the price will rise and the US will have no alternative to foreign oil. And the reserves will dry up someday. Say bye bye to shale oil folks!  

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:18 | 5505503 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

You mean they'll finally see enough money to get back into extraction from Texas, California, Alaska and North Dakota?

If demand ever goes so far back up...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:13 | 5504248 Kina
Kina's picture

there is always one way to make those dumping billions on cheap oil bet and rubbles bet suddenly take a massive loss.......a few large explosions at Saudi premier oils wells.....would change everything .... and the thing is...the list of countries willing that sort of thing would now be pretty long.....

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:31 | 5504286 Idaho potato head
Idaho potato head's picture

See the new video, isis gone wild. Naw our moderates wouldn't do that.....

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:27 | 5504273 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

This has no effect on Russia gas expiorts to the EU, which are set via an already existing contract and are paid in Euros.

So in return for trying to limit the number of billions that a few Russian oligarchs get from oil, we are collapsing US and Canadian frackers, and destroying the economies of Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, Iraq, Libya, etc, etc... and forcing the entire planet into a global recession...

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:12 | 5505478 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

I understand that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are seriously renegotiating these contracts, and that Poland, Germany, and others will expect and DEMAND similar reductions in their futures.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:32 | 5504289 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

A weaker ruble benefits the budget because it boosts export revenue in local-currency terms, helping offset the slide in Brent. Russia relies on oil and gas for 50 percent of budget revenue.

A falling currency is not good for the economy.  Sure you'll export more because your goods are cheaper to other nations so they become more attractive and they buy more of them, but you have to export more to make up for the falling value of your currency.  You're working harder to try and keep up.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:10 | 5505449 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

Export WHAT to WHERE???

Y'know, sanctions and all...

And as the old tools break down, and nobody can sell or ship them more.

Y'know, sanctions and all...

And no chance of foreign investment in any meaningful amount, outside of Chinese loans (with siberia as collateral).

Y'know, sanctions and all...

In the short long-term, say the next twenty years, until Russia rebuilds it's agriculture, begins making stuff that people (all people) want, and until energy is stable...
Russia is simply fucked for an entire generation. If they could stop everything YESTERDAY.

 

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 22:22 | 5506244 IronForge
IronForge's picture

BRICS, SCO, EURASIA COOPERATIVE.  ASEAN (Remember, he was the Man of the Hour vs our POTUS), AFRICA. 

Arms Exports 'round the world.
Nuclear Reactors to IRN - 8 of them, IIRC.

The Sanctions just set off "Hotfoots" for their Foreign and Trade Ministries.

They'll get over this - just because of CHN alone.   With IND added, its survival is pretty much secure - The Five Eyed Fraudsters won't be able to topple the Govts of those 3 Nations that easily - if at all - anymore.

They're big, they're Regional/Global Military Powers, they trade with each other, and RUS probably has enough Oil and Gas to sustain both CHN and IND if the Gulf gets into a Hot War.  Enter IRN - who has Ports outside of the Straits (so does KSA; but they're not friends w/RUS) -  supplying IND and CHN (via the Indian Ocean, with the Caspian route unhindered if needed) already; and you have the 3 Secured.

As a indirect effect, one can say that IRN is protected from the Five-Eyed Beast now.  

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 10:47 | 5504355 pavel
pavel's picture

If Putin goes the next president could be General Gerasimov.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:11 | 5504474 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

A dumb policy is a dumb policy, no matter how much you love the person who made it.

There is a lot of non-Russian money in the world.  Putin made it official policy that Russia should confiscate it.

Did you really think that people would sit around looking at each other saying, "Who's gonna lose everything first?"

No.  They act to hedge their sovereign risk in Russia by selling Russian real property and assets, denominated in Rubles, and buying stuff elsewhere. 

It has nothing to do with Sanctions.

It is a giant sucking sound as money flees Russia because of the considerate announcement that those who do not flee will be confiscated.

And it gets compounded because ordinary Russians who compete to most effusively express their adoration for their government, have been through this twice before just in the last two decades, and quietly sell Rubles in preference to foreign currency bound for mattress storage.

It is really simple, and is no kind of attack on Russia.  It is supply and demand.   The number of Rubles stayed the same, but a dumb policy stuck a stake through the heart of demand.

It was really dumb to assume that every foreign entity is the agent of a foreign government, and treat them accordingly.

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 15:18 | 5505510 Titus
Titus's picture

It was really dumb to assume that every foreign entity is the agent of a foreign government, and treat them accordingly.

Except that a lot of them are agents or sleeper agents for the US/western banking cabal trying to sow discontent for a Russian Spring. You should read The Moscow Times sometime. it's like a CIA newsletter and it's in almost every midrange to high end restaurant in Moscow.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:05 | 5504642 JRobby
JRobby's picture

What about the Dinar......................?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:11 | 5504668 Dflated
Dflated's picture

Love watching Putin sweat.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:20 | 5504698 Jonathan Equine...
Jonathan Equine Phallus's picture
Ah, yet another brand new neocon troll.
Sweet.

What's the over/under on how long before you make some inane homoerotic comment?
Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:50 | 5505364 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture

Whose turn is it to man Vlad's suicide watch?

Are they still paying you in this crappy Russian currency?

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