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US Manufacturing Bull? Explain These 2 Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's doubly different this time...

 

Deja vu?

 

and the divergence between ISM's magical surge (of bullish respondents) and the collapse in critical raw materials is the largest in at least 30 years...

 

Source: Bloomberg and @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:27 | 5504522 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

How 'bout a chart of economic activity vs. Iphone 6 sales. You can eat them, you know.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:56 | 5504616 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

And play games on them as I just saw in comercial.  Awesome economic productivity.  

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:00 | 5504633 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The Markit PMI survey hasn't been through government reeducation camp yet.  A situation that will be rectified shortly.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 14:05 | 5505165 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

According to this one single chart, we are the god of manufacturing.

Don't ever forget that...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:28 | 5504524 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

the only thing the USA manufactures is trouble for the entire world.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:30 | 5504538 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

WE are very good at exporting Financial Crisis and Black Friday mayhem.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:54 | 5504610 CHX
CHX's picture

# 1.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:27 | 5504526 GoBadgers
GoBadgers's picture

Comical.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:27 | 5504530 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Well. Weak dollar really showing how it will drag stocks and Apple with joy.
Http://www.hedgeaccordingly.com

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:28 | 5504532 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You like it so much Fed? Then you buy it.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:28 | 5504533 starman
starman's picture

0 interest 0 down 84 months financing!  

Recovery!  

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:29 | 5504536 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Most plausible explanation : YOU are being lied to on a REGULAR BASIS !

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:00 | 5504630 Kprime
Kprime's picture

definitely, definitely, lots of cards, lots

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:00 | 5504631 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The lies aren't even good anymore. Some would be laughable if not for the outcomes.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:36 | 5504550 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

when lumber goes down it is bad

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:36 | 5504551 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The US manufactures plenty of debt. It's a debt based system.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:38 | 5504560 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The rest of the  world would do well if they divorce themselves of the US dollar.

Get out of it entirely.  

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:07 | 5504658 headhunt
headhunt's picture

...and go where? The Ruble, Yen, Shekel, Euro, Renminbi...?

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:10 | 5504665 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

In the long run they would be doing us Americans a favor as well.

 

Their continued use of the dollar eliminates any real reforms here in the States.  It empowers the Fed to keep printing and the Government to keep spending.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:43 | 5504567 anachronism
anachronism's picture

ZH has repeatedly noted that survey data has been much more optimistic than factual data. Those being surveyed don't want to appear as "losers". They always want to appear as "above average".

The pathetic part is the absence of skepticism on the part of the financial news services, who play up the soft data's significance while downplaying the hard data. But soft data surveys play to the wishes of their corporate advertisers.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:58 | 5504625 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Presstitutes.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:03 | 5504639 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

The collective lie also is used to get rid of dead inventory before price realization creates the change in perception

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:41 | 5504570 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

It's just being slow.  IP was blithefully unaware of the recession that was beginning in late 2007 as employment, prices, and other metrics began to tell the tale.

 

Then...it took a hammer to the kneecap.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:44 | 5504573 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In a central-planned, no rules, mark-to-fantasy world, all kind of crazy things can and will happen.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 11:53 | 5504609 KuriousKat
KuriousKat's picture

Alert!  There is a mistake on these and several other charts. And of no small significance by the way.. It's clear that is NOT  the way the chart should be read. It was meant to be read in Ms Paint! Not Excel or Lotus .  flip horizontally then rotate 90 degrees so everything is pointing up up up with no end in sight . Don't be fooled peoples, we are in the money the likes of which we will never see again.  How the editors of this premiere site missed this is simply beyond belief. A technical adjustment is therefore requested immediately to correct this travesty.

Keep the Faith and all that good stuff!

KK

 

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:04 | 5504641 headhunt
headhunt's picture

I think the error is in the translation, the ISM Composite was asking if they are positive and the answer was 'yes, we are positive the shit is about to hit the fan.'

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:05 | 5504646 Spungo
Spungo's picture

If you squint, the chart starts to look like a penis.

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:06 | 5504649 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

ZH would be a lot better if it didn't spin things quite so much.  Lumber prices are not down.  They have stabilized over the last year at pre-recession levels.  Here's a chart:  

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/lumber.aspx?timeframe=10y

Mon, 12/01/2014 - 12:15 | 5504674 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

more "soft" survey nonsense

 

Federal Reserve out with october industrial production recently 

 

manufacturing portion:

 

september revised from +0.5% to +0.2%

october +0.2% (expected +0.3%)

 

latest BEA durable good orders ... core capex negative 3 of last 4 months

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