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US PMI Plunges To 10-Month Lows (Export Order Drop), ISM Beats (Export Orders Soar)
For the 3rd month in a row, US Manufacturing PMI dropped from 4-year highs to 10-month lows. At 54.8, missing expectations of 55.0 (and down from 55.9) for the 5th month of the last 6 as extrapolated hopes fade into the usual cyclical un-decoupled collapse into year-end (but ignore NRF data). Sadly for the bullish decoupling meme, Markit notes, "the principal cause of the slowdown is a renewed downturn in export orders, which fell for the first time since January." So, amid all of this doom, ISM then beat expectations, printing 58.7 vs 58.0 expectations (down slightly from October's 59.0 print) led by - rather ironically - new export orders surging... US data has gone full China.
US Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 10-month lows
As Markit notes, this is not a pretty picture:
“What’s more, with inflows of new orders slowing sharply, there’s a good chance that production growth will deteriorate further in December.
“The principal cause of the order book slowdown is a renewed downturn in export orders, which fell for the first time since January. Demand from many emerging markets remains well down on pre-crisis levels, and a deteriorating situation in the Eurozone has hit trade flows to Europe.
“Unless order book growth picks up, factories will inevitably soon turn to cutting jobs in order to bring capacity down in line with weaker demand.”
And then ISM beat.. led by export orders!!!!
Business activity fell to 58.7 vs 59.0 last month
* New orders rose to 66 vs 65.8 last month
* Employment fell to 54.9 vs 55.5 last month
* Supplier deliveries rose to 56.8 vs 56.2 last month
* Inventories fell to 51.5 vs 52.5 last month
* Customer inventories rose to 50.0 vs 48.0 last month
* Prices paid fell to 44.5 vs 53.5 last month
* Backlog of orders rose to 55.0 vs 53.0 last month
* New export orders rose to 55.0 vs 51.5 last month
* Imports rose to 56.0 vs 54.5 last month
Note that for the first time since July 2013, prices paid dropped below 50.
Of course - the new orders resurgence is entirely seasonally-adjusted idiocy...
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING...
"The Holiday Season continues to exceed expectations. Customers are generally optimistic for future sales growth." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Continued strong demand. Deliveries through the West Coast are delayed due to a number of factors." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"We have seen continued growth in transportation equipment. Slowdowns and threats of strike of West Coast longshoreman weigh heavily on U.S. operations." (Transportation Equipment)
"Business continues to be stronger than last year." (Furniture & Related Products)
"Improvement in defense spending and manufacturing." (Computer & Electronic Products)
"West Coast port longshoreman slowdown is affecting business with longer lead times." (Chemical Products)
"We continue to hire people. People are also leaving to take other jobs indicating the job market is starting to improve for manufacturing." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
"Market has remained strong going into year-end." (Wood Products)
"Order intake has been substantial, resulting in a very healthy backlog. The packaging automation requirements in the food and beverage market are robust." (Machinery)
"Demand remains strong for new orders." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
Simply put, absolutely every single respondent was bullish...
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Charts: Bloomberg
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They're not even trying to look believable anymore.
That means either:
A) The wool is fully pulled and it doesn't take much to reel in the gullible public.
B) LaVorgna is officially in charge and now has the title of Big Chief #DIV/0!
"---a deteriorating situtation in the Eurozone has caused a slowdown in order flow to Europe". Maybe we should extend them credit for ten years at zero percent interest ? What could go wrong ?
Seasonally adjusted till there's nothing left to adjust and then it'll be our fault for not buying shit.....
My dog could predict a equities fall and be 50% correct.
Export orders are down while Japan implodes (more so that usual), China slows markedly (more so than usual) and Europe again can't figure out how to run itself (more so than usual) while the dollar heads higher against.... well, pretty much everything, making our good more expensive overseas.
Shocking. Now THERE'S a black swan that nobody could have seen coming. Don't even pretend you knew this would happen, it's impossible for anyone to have predicted this.
Actually my palm reader predict it last Saturday night.
I knew this would happen. So T here. As I've been posting for years; growth is over. there is no growth. it's time for suction now, not growth.
Winning.....
I have been in international capital equipment sales for over 20 years. The USA used to be really liked but not anymore. Our FED, MIC, NSA, CIA, TPTB have trashed the USA reputation and this is killing us and the world. I am fearful to now travel to places I used to go to.
That's the trouble of going from world leader to plantation owner the proles tend to be unhappy...
Man the presses! That means you, Yellen!
And look at that thing they call a market float up. This thing is one big ass turd. Question is will it close green?
Is this why the DOW just went vertical?
dow will be positive by 11 in this fucking joke of a ''market''
with regard to US exports. Exports to Europe are way down because as Margaret Thatcher pointed out, "The problem with Socialism, is that you run out of other people's' money to spend". Which, basically, is the situation in Europe. So, couldn't t hey just print some more money? What could go wrong ?