This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Crude Carnage Resumes But Stocks Bounce As Hindenburg Omen Strikes
Following yesterday's dead-cat-bounce, oil prices resumed their downward push today, closing just shy of the flush lows on Friday back to a $66 handle for WTI. Gold also slipped modestly with copper and silver flat as the USD surged higher (+0.75% on the day). Stocks just melted up all day long (supported by USDJPY pushing to new cycle highs over 119), stop-hunting the whole way (with the S&P breaking back above its 5-day moving-average and back into the green on the week briefly). Yesterday's losers (Trannies and Small Caps) were today's BTFD winners. Treasury yields rose notably once again (up 11-13bps on the week) as we suspect oil-producers are selling to help support their collapsing currencies. VIX closed below 13 - slammed into the close to scrape the S&P back above its 5DMA.
Victory, the S&P 500 is back above its 5DMA... (thanks to VIX)
Because when u absolutely have to have the SPX close above its 5DMA... Slam the VIX!!
As the S&P (and Dow) broke back into the green for the week... but could not hold it
With the US Open to EU Close ramp where all the gains were...
As USDJPY could not hold it...
So VIX was slammed
As we predicted
DJIA MOC 13/30 for sale means another VIXtermination at 3:59:59:9999
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2014
Energy stocks remain winners with Utes on the week (even as oil drops and Treasury yields rise)...
But things are not all they appear under the surface - there is enough anomalous highs vs lows and advancers vs decliners to trigger the Hindenburg Omen. Despite numerous false alarms, the last one - as Fed QE effect slowed - was a dramatic signal indeed...
And we note that CoT has not been keeping up with the index surge...
Treasury yields continue to increase notably this week.. which smells a lot like either rate locks for floods of new issuance (which we are not seeing) or...
Oil-Producers selling TSYs to recieve USDs so they can sell USDs to support their local currencies...
narrowing the divergence with stocks...
But the USD surged all day against the majors...
Oil prices resumed their downtrend (down 12% from initial OPEC leaks) as gold remains flat since then...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Radioshack plunged 20% to record lows on news of covenant breach claim (5Y CDS implied 99.97% chance of BK)
»
- 15270 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Hindenberg Omen. Check.
Central Banksters gone Wild. Check.
Propaganda machine in full gear on CNBS. Check.
Santa Claus Rally in launch mode waiting to set up shorts to play against the dumb asses. Check.
China's economy about to barf up a hairball? Check.
China Prepares for a Domestic Banking Crisis; Soon to offer FDIC type InsurancePrepare for implosion Houston, a nasty deflationary one.
well needed to close over 2070 to solidify the ramp.. but as we speak bonds are puking lows..
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/launch-real-time-charting
For years i have expected and hoped this market will crash soon so i can profit from this insanity but now that i admit defeat and out of the markets and don't give a shit about making a single dime from the markets, i still hope that this house of cards collapse real soon. I dont have much to lose anymore unlike the greedy pigs on wall street and im ready for any chaos or violence that may erupt.
Sad perspective but I know all to well where you're coming from.
Zerohedge is a great contrarian indicator.
29 moar days till the 5 dma record is broken....2015! Happy same as is ever was year!
Great bedtime story. Will reread it before going to sleep tonight.
Twas the night before Vixmas...
I'd better get that 1/8" stereo adapter from Radio Shack before the end of the year...
Could have said this at any point over the last few years....
We had like 5-7 Hindenberg Omens last year and it didn't mean anything.
I've started to think that the HO is a signal to double down.
pods
the idiots who sold because of all the prior HO warnings are the ones who got the case of the hindenberg omen the past few years, i was one of them.
It certainly has been.
In ZH speak; BTFHO.
the 'PAPER HINDENBURG OMEN' is alive & well & is presently run [& leveraged] from the Goldman Sachs Trading Desk.
zactly. hindenberg schmindenberg
Hindenburg Omen really means buy anything not nailed down, it's all going far higher.
I musta over-pimped JNK yesterday .... up .31%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JNK:US
Of course, you're just talking about the overall economy, and not the stock market.
You know, being that the two are now completely dissociated.
But, ,but, but, Kwazy Kwamer said that the stock market is a predictive indicator of future economic growth! You mean he lied!?!?!? Gasp, I'm stunned I'm telling you, stunned.
Stunned and running out of time.
And with all this the markets will continue to go up, up, and up. Fundamentals don't mean shit anymore. They have not meant anything in years.
synthetic tax cut due to crude prices tho? ha.
Good thing Radio Shack spent all that money on store redesigns last year.
rofl
I know, right? As if nobody else sells cell phones and RC toys.
"Let's expand lower profit margin sections and alienate ourselves from our traditional customers and business model."
Clearly the MBA's have taken over in management.
Where am I going to buy my individually packed resistors and capacitors now? The horror.
Why, eBay of course.
Digi-Key has an awesome selection and no minimums. (Yeah, I know ... /s)
Radio shack is still in business?? They all closed shop here in southern California a couple of years ago. I thought they closed down everywhere.
Becky D'angelis, info-babe acolyte of the "Church of the Holy Sepulcher of Levered Debt" (FED/Wall Street), almost having an on-air orgasm over lower gas prices.
"People are back to buying SUV's so they can load up the family and go shopping!"
Nevermind +25% healthcare costs, rent, utilities, and the damage that lower crude costs will do to the only decent paying jobs created in the last 10 years.
Most of this is churn and sector rotation; those with the cream are making butter and cheese, and we get none of it.
yes, looks like good paying jobs, not that many but pay well... lots of spin off jobs, need energy for everything we do in the Economy too.
Average Weekly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Mining and Logging
2014-10: $1,291.86 Dollars per Week Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, CES1000000030, Updated: 2014-11-07
All Employees: Mining and Logging: Oil and Gas Extraction
2014-10: 215.6 Thousands of Persons Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, CES1021100001, Updated: 2014-11-07
How many days do u think they r gonna impose this fraudulent cap on Gold below 1200.00 and Silver at 16.50 via the phony paper charades?????
http://www.silverseek.com/
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Gold and silver are going at least another 50% lower from here.
Why by gold at these lofty prices when you can get e-minis for so cheap?
yeah....ok
I dunno, 50 years or longer by the looks of it?
CommitmentOfTraders!!! Now that's funny!! Should be COHFTS. Or COALGOS.
Should be "Commitment of Traitors". More to the point.
I am using my powers of ESP to divine something about the market that nobody else could know.... I'm getting something now.... yes, I see it clearly.
Was the melt-up in stocks on... LOW VOLUME??
Thank you, I know you are amazed at my awesome powers of ESP, but remember I have honed my skills over a period of DECADES, so don't be discouraged if your powers are not yet as strong as mine.
You are amazing NoDebt!!! Joe thinks so too!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLhGFvGTwNQ
The manipulation in the US stock market is so easy to see that even Ray Charles can see it -and he's been dead 10 years. The only question that remains is how long the Fed and the big banks and the rating agencies and regulators and cheerleaders in the media can keep this charade going.
I am really surprised that nobody actually is getting of their asses and does some investigations.
The FED, the SEC, some big investment banks, the hedge funds, the mass media, they are all in on it, ok. But is there nobody out there that got burned badly in 2008 and would do some research who is behind all this fraud? Wouldn't this be a big story? Or are in fact ALL mass media in the world in on it??
Somebody decides today Tripadvisor will go up and then they just push it up 8%. Just added a 800 million in market cap. Because it's such a great website. Huge potential. And so many news today.
Am just I going crazy or all people around me?
Investigate what exactly? The very basis of the whole system is fraudulent. Who do you trust to start the ball rolling?
Money from thin air because a few heads give big speeches and explain in great detail how the fraud is really not a fraud but it is all legitimate. So many riding the coattails of the fraud and they will never lift a finger to change anything.
I honestly don't know if there has ever been a real attempt in history to pry the control over money from the money changer's claws. Hard to determine really.
There haven't been sound money or proper remuneration for an honest day's work for a very very long time...
The Founding Fathers did it, then the Banks got thier claws back in. Then Old Hickory beat them back and took a bullet for it. Then they got back in in 1913 and got renewed in 1933 and here we are today.
Apparently race riots have nothing to do with interest rates, the economy or the stock market.
HELLO! MCFLY!
Wake up folks. Not the first race riots we have had nor the last unfortunately. DEFLATIONARY. This will put a bid into the debt markets as liquidity gets mopped up here.in the form...again tragically.. "via de!and destruction.". I say again...someone needs to look at he media's role in all of this.
Just watched a show about the Hindenburg . It was gas and the weather after all
With DOW +100 daily this shitshow should be 20,000 by Xmas easily, then 30,000 or so by New Years Day....ho ho ho you ho's.
Stocks do not "catch down". This, above all else you must learn as it is of utmost importance: everything catches up to stocks.
This can save your life.
Just imagine if oil producers keep selling US Tsy, especially the 30-year, in order to buy USD as oil continues to plunge toward $20/barrel. How high would the TYX yield have to go for the HFT machines to take notice and the S&P to crash-and-burn?
What's the line in the sand, the "maximum pain" level?
The religion of global warming has made more accurate predictions than the Hindenburg Omen.
175k December VIX 12 puts bought earlier. They wanted this market higher today and they were going to do whatever they needed to do to make that happen.
should be in the money tomorrow.
They did "whatever it took".
Sitting this out until early January these greedy banker/ hedge fund fuckers will stop at nothing to keep the equity "market" propped up until year end
as someone once said fool me once, shame on me, fool me every december for 15 years, damn I'm a fool
Ruble, Yen, Crude, ... There must be so many people hurting out there. How long can this go on?
I just can't take another "VIX slam" or more CNBC headlines like "Stocks rise on car sales".
Crash already, "markets", will you? FFS
who would go short in front of Molto Mario on Thursday......
Radio Shack?
Still around?
maybe ... just maybe ... i'll have to visit for a trip down memory lane ... do they still want your life history to purchase a battery?
So the oil crash means that tsys holder have to sell them, thereby making this market more liquid. Which will then enable QE4 a in a few months. Ok, this too I begin to understand...
Fed blowhorns almost tripping over each other with rate expectations. Spin, spin, spin... got paper to sell
Are you risk takers or what? If you are, the big bet is central bank omnipotence. If they are omnipotent, BUY BUY BUY!
The miracle of financial "engineering". :-)
This year we had a Technological Leap. The found a simpler solution that solves Oct-Dec Blues each year.
It is a Krokodil Injection directly into the Credit Market. (Also called the Krugman Prophylactic or the Yellen Catheter)
But in Jan-Apr you see some parts of the Body start to Die and fall off of the Host.
Hinderburg omen is currenty in Saint Louis : its the Darren Wilson moment of a marching army of denial and debasement of law that cannot stop the coming of an event that has to be. Don't get fooled by the secondary issues "of a rabble black looting mob". They said the same thing in 1776 and 1789.
A concept whose time has arrived is irresistable. Be aware rancid, navel gazing USA, as you fall for the same trap.
While the Von Mises theoreticians vomit their spleen about what should be in a "perfect market" world --in fact run by Oligarchy algo bots, the new version of the financial inquisition--, forgetting the lessons of History : that a perfect market is alike a perfect catholic church, a mirage in the sands of the obscurantist creed of "dictatus papae" or the "talmudic" or "sharia-coranic" historical obscurantist timelines.
Something that a king; a despot like GWB or Putin ; will NEVER allow to be contradicted, as this contradiction, and by ricochet, reaffirmation of western Man's greek origin in our civilization-- based on DOUBT not CERTITUDE of result--, is a process of civilization, contrary to a preordained result on the chessboard, that all despots (and obscurantists) feel are their "divine rights", of those who love to be adorned in the purple of unquestioned patriotic fervour.
"You cannot cheat, indefinitely, you Oligarchy bastards, for debasing man's true heritage. You residual extracts of a corrupted past and present."
"Cheat but don't get caught and in order to achieve it put 'the chastising rod' up the asses of those unwashed" -- stays the medieval mantra of "what has to be", aka "orders are orders, never mind what 'really' happened".
The centuries unfold but the entropial hold of Kismet, of Man's inablity to learn, inexorably re-molds humanity's inevitable fall to the bottom of the Hill, time and again.
Lets see how that plays out for our minute timeline of homo-sapiens. What we see today is not an aggrandisement of Western civilization; more a regression whose name we all know since "Sieg Heil" days.
We are moving back into the sands of time. And Jefferson would pee down the nostrils of those who evoke his name in vain.
In a perfect market, the natural rate of profit is, of course, zero.
If you want the see-saw to stay horizontal, which is contrary to human greed and time honored perverted logic; aka the obscure desire of wanting to feel the irrepressible joy of being "king of the heap".
I find it interesting you are the only other one bringing up the riots in Ye Olde USA "as a profit center." Ive been a minority many times in my life...and though it should have killed me many times over I loved it every time.
So now I am "alone" and all those "others" freely call me as such. Yet they have no knowledge of what it truly means to be alone...to stand out in an entire MASS of human folk "who are not you."
To be defined by your differences with others is definition if not definitive indeed.
Good luck defeating that algo puny human. "We're all just part of the programming" and every else is just acting..."pretending" as it were.
Let's look at the FACTS, instead of hypoerbole and BS. Market is 25% above historical mean/median Market is 68% above historical Schiller PE10 http://www.multpl.com/
Leaders in Russia, Iran and Venezuela could lose popular support if energy prices bring down their economies
Bloomberg
Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University: ‘The low price of oil is good news for the U.S. economy, because it implies higher real incomes for American consumers.’
The price of oil has fallen by more than a third in the past five months, to about $70 a barrel. If the price remains at this level, it will have important implications — some good, some bad — for many countries around the world. If it falls further, as seems likely, the geopolitical consequences on some oil-producing countries could be dramatic.
The price of oil at any time depends on market participants’ expectations about future supply and demand. The role of expectations makes the oil market very different from most others. In the market for fresh vegetables, for example, prices must balance the supply and demand for the current harvest. By contrast, oil producers and others in the industry can keep supply off the market if they think that its price will rise later, or they can put extra supply on the market if they think the price will fall.
Oil companies around the world keep supply off the market by reducing the amount of oil that they take out of the ground. Oil producers can also restrict supply by holding oil inventory in tankers at sea or in other storage facilities. Conversely, producers can put more oil on the market by increasing production or by running down their inventories.
The market expectations reflected in today’s price reflect lower future demand and increased future supply. Lower demand reflects both the current weakness of economic activity, particularly in Europe and China, and, more important, the longer-term changes in technology, which will increase cars’ fuel efficiency and induce the use of solar power and other non-oil energy sources. The increase in the future potential supply of oil reflects new output produced by fracking, the development of Canada’s tar sands, and Mexico’s recent decision to allow foreign oil companies to develop the country’s energy sources.
These changes in demand and supply suggest that the future price of oil will be lower than industry participants expected until just a few months ago. Some of the recent changes in expected future demand and supply could have been anticipated earlier. But there is no way to know when attitudes and expectations will change. The historic volatility of oil prices reflects these psychological shifts as well as changes in objective reality.
Today’s oil price is also linked to anticipated future interest rates. More specifically, oil producers have an investment choice: They can increase production now, selling the additional oil at today’s price and investing the proceeds at the existing long-term interest rate, or they can leave the oil in the ground as an investment.
A low rate of interest encourages producers to leave oil in the ground. When the current abnormally low interest rates on long-term bonds rise over the next few years, it will become more attractive for producers to increase the supply of oil and invest the resulting income at the higher rate. Unless expectations about the fundamentals of future supply and demand change, the rise in the interest rate will cause oil prices to fall further.
The low price of oil is good news for the United States economy, because it implies higher real incomes for American consumers. Within the U.S., the lower price is transferring real income from oil producers to households, which raises short-term demand because households spend a higher proportion of their incomes than oil firms do. For the same reason, the lower price also gives a boost to aggregate demand in Europe, Asia and other oil-importing regions.
The big losers from falling oil prices include several countries that are not friends of the U.S. and its allies, such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia. These countries are heavily dependent on their oil revenue to support their governments’ spending — especially massive transfer programs. Even at $75 or $80 a barrel, these governments will have a difficult time financing the populist programs that they need to maintain public support.
Although Saudi Arabia and several of the Gulf states are also major oil exporters, they differ from other producers in two important ways. First, their cost of extracting oil is extremely low, which means that they will be able to produce profitably at the current price — or even at a much lower price. Second, their enormous financial reserves allow them to finance their domestic and international activities for an extended period of time, as they seek to transform their economies to reduce their dependence on oil revenue.
A further decline in the price of oil could have major geopolitical repercussions. A price of $60 a barrel would create severe problems for Russia, in particular. President Vladimir Putin would no longer be able to maintain the transfer programs that currently sustain his popular support. There would be similar consequences in Iran and Venezuela.
It is not clear whether these countries’ current regimes could survive a substantial and sustained future decline in oil prices. By contrast, it is obvious that oil-importing countries would benefit greatly — as they already are.
Who's manning Vlad's suicide watch tonight?
Whoever's watching him, make sure they don't let him have a belt like last night's shift. That was a close call....