This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
ADP Employment Misses, Worst November In 4 Years
Following 2 months of improving growth and beats after a mid-year slump, ADP Employment in November dropped to 208k (from an upward revised 233k in Oct even as September was revised lower from 225K to 213K) missing expectations of 222k by the most since August. November has historically seen a significant bump higher in employment but 2014 saw a drop (the first since 2008) with the lowest November print since 2010.
ADP job growth slipped and missed:
Worst November since 2010, first drop in November since 2008
Some more charts:
Monthly change in ADP payroll:
ADP vs BLS:
Employment by Company Size
Employment by Selected Industry
From the report:
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 101,000 jobs in November, down slightly from 103,000 in October. Job growth was down significantly over the month for medium-sized firms. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees rose by 65,000, well below October’s increase of 122,000. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – saw a rebound from 7,000 the previous month to 42,000 jobs added in November. Companies with 500-999 employees added 10,000 jobs, down from October’s 14,000. However, this drop was more than offset by the addition of 32,000 jobs by companies with over 1,000 employees.
Goods-producing employment rose by 32,000 jobs in November, down from 46,000 jobs gained in October. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs over the month, well below last month’s gain of 27,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 11,000 jobs in November, down slightly from October’s 13,000.
Service-providing employment rose by 176,000 jobs in November, down from 187,000 in October. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 37,000 jobs in November. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 49,000, just above October’s 48,000. The 5,000 new jobs added in financial activities was below last month’s 6,000.
"November continued to show solid job growth above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Small businesses continued to drive job gains adding almost half the total for the month.”
And the ADP's biggest value added: the infographic.
»
- 6715 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Iraq denies Lebanon captured wife of ISIS Leader Baghdadi despite daughter’s positive DNA test
France parliament votes in support of recognizing Palestine, Israel says peace process will suffer
The guy who delivered my pizza the other night was old enough to be retired. He looked like the type who's made a lot of good decisions in life but just been fucked really hard. I'm sure pizza delivery man was his first choice at a job. RALLY ON.
I'm not entirely sure I even believe these numbers any more. Call me paranoid.
It's OK....I'm starting to have doubts myself.
This is what Russia must have been like in the 60's.
The Board of the Fed must get a kick out of listening to the MSM blowhards waiting intently for the release of "the data" and then providing their detailed analysis of "what it means", the reaction of the "market" and whether expectations / forecasts were met.
Kind of like Yellen going off on a non-sensical diatribe about inflation statistics being "noisy" or the labour market conditions that the Fed is so concerned about.
It is all useless noise and distraction. Technical analysis - if I am forced to listen to it, I am almost waiting for the punchline because it is so obvious that the "buyers" at this point can ONLY be the Fed, its bank members spending free money from the Fed, or other Central Banks who are paying back a favour for propping up their own bullshit markets.
The joke is on us to the extent that we take any of this data or analysis seriously.
Crazy ya'll don't believe everything.. did you know we also put a man on the moon in the 60's and later we were such bad asses we even gave them buggies to go hauling ass across the rough surface of the moon, miles away from their lander, 250,000 miles from earth without any back up systems?? Why don't ya'll believe everything? Is it just because NASA "lost" the original film of man's crowning achievement?
Holiday season is coming up - time for the annual debate re: Kennedy, Moon Landing, WTC 7 (never heard of it!), market manipulation, etc. with the family concluding that your getting crazier as you get older.
But then after you make them watch the "Moon Landing" footage and WTC 7, they admit it looks strange. Then they go back to their daily lives, not too troubled about it all.
Oh, but how we believed it as children and what a great rallying it created, just as 911 did.
I think everthing will be OK as long as in the next Presidential election, the choices are: (i) the brother of 911 Bush; (ii) the wife of the President who repealed Glass Steagall.
maybe we ought to start counting those farm payroll jobs....
Sounds a lot like the annual Festivus tradition of the Airing of the Grievances. Personally, I'm waiting for the Feats of Strength ...
Time for another fed puppet like bultard to say that the markets misread his correction of his no more qe needed statement because the ecoNomy looks to be slowing down again, hence another boost to equity markets. Im sure kocker and Evans will chime in immediately after with Fisher playing the role of bad cop again soon after.
I thought has name was bullturd?
I was going to post something like this, but folks beat me to it. To be honest, I don't post much at all anymore... what is there left to say?
Should be good for new ATH on the S&P.
It was the spendiest mid-term ever, quite a few low wage temp workers got the boot on 11/12.
Yikes, that ain't good. 2014 is on a down trend from october to november while all of the other years increase from october to november.
Great news, chuck another slave on the fire Jeeves
"Employment Misses"
No. Employment don't miss estimates; estimates miss employment. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
Great insight, but don't tell the algos that. They'll send drones to your house.
I bet a lot of retail people are going to lose their temporary jobs soon....as the brick retail rush is over...
Does this include Hookers and Single Moms?
ADP reports vary greatly from the officially fudged number that comes out the following Friday. Besides, the number - 208,000 - is fairly close to the trailing 12-month average. This really isn't news worthy.
Not according to the ADP vs BLS chart above
A major concern should be the quality of these jobs. The long term implications of poor job creation are massive. We are seeing that a huge number of people have dropped out of the work force. Often these people have little in the way of savings, this means the burden of caring for them will be transferred to society. If to many people shift into this category we will slowly wear down through attrition. Finding a fair way to share and balance the work load that goes on every day is one of the most important problems facing our modern world.
Failure to discover a solution to this dilemma bodes poorly for our consumer driven economy and adds to the toxic problem of inequality. Many of the numbers and budget projections of the government have been based on far better employment numbers then we are currently facing or will be facing if this continues. The article below looks at the long-term implication of poor job creation and how it will drastically impact in a negative way both the wealth and future of America.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/09/implications-of-poor-job-creation.html
Favorite propaganda title of the day goes to...
ADP: Private Employment increased 208,000 in Novemberhttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Calculated Risk shit blog...
Can't wait to see the numbers when the "5,000,000" newly minted Democrats get their work papers.
don't worry - it is just an add to the denominator.
seriously, BLS will likely add more growing seasons (from 3 to 5 seasons a year) to their formulas to reflect more lettuce and strawberries to be picked by the newly legal illegals.
Really - it's all good folks -
NoVa
Amazon now has robots packing orders in their fulfillment centers. Just a matter of time before they're more automated than not. This "hiring is up during October/November because of seasonal hiring" will die a quick death.
It’s a good thing we have 5 million illegals flooding America to pick up the spending slack.
/sarc
Take a look at the Amazon warehouse roomba robots moving the stacks of inventory to the humans to box them and you see the future...apparently they are working on boxing robots too. Viva la Revolucion de la Robots!
I expect retailing will be pulling the plug on their temporary workers much sooner than in the past. Many may have only 2 weeks left.
+100 upvotes for 1) insightful comment on temporary workers and the likely trend to emerge and 2) a really cool picture.
NoVa
must be the weather.....
Jeh Johnson stumped when asked how Obama's amnesty program helps American citizens: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/homeland-chief-unable-explain-how-ex...
How about laying off the fuckers in DC and see what the heck they will do?
Last year in November we added 274,000.
If things are better how could anything less than November 2013 plus 1.85% (Rate of annualized job growth) not be a disappointment.
279K should be the minimum to continue the "Things are getting better" story.
October 2016, AP Story:
< “With the Dow having achieved another milestone at 23,000, bears are clamoring that a correction is imminent. “There is no way QE6 will be effective,” stated one prominent bear. Another said that the election is still a big unknown for the markets and may cause a large 1.5% correction. So far, the markets have ignored all the bad news for almost a decade now and bears have been gored repeatedly. Bulls say they have clear sailing ahead with further Fed Bank assurances they will continue asset purchases as needed to support the markets. One prominent bull sees Dow 25,000 by the end of the year. “With the Fed fully supporting the markets and interest rates holding at less than 1/4 percent, I see nothing but upside. Even quarter after quarter of weak earnings has had only minor negative impact thanks to the Fed effect.” Certainly student loan forgiveness, freeing up one nearly trillion dollars, most of which made its way into housing, has been a big plus for the markets.>
It takes larger and larger amounts of cash once everything bows up.
Last time it was $8 trillion of printing. Maybe next time $20 trillion of Federal Reserve printing money out of thin air?
So next time a deficit of $38 trillion.
One has to wonder how much longer that it's realized the US has the largest ponzi scheme.
Yes, but if it was $20 trillion, better yet $80 trillion - like Krugman suggests - it would have worked. You all are just deniers. /s
Hey, just wait a bit while Americans get their own personal cash printing presses with the special 50% off Krugman discount coupon. After all, we are all in this together, right?
Nobody shopping = nobody working = nobody shopping = nobody working = nobody shopping = nobody working
Round and round she goes!!!
That's called deflation.
Why work when uncle scam pays you about $30,000/year for social security disability?
The democratic party wants everyone on the government tit.
But I heard they hired more help at the golf course?
When someone gets a new job within the same company, does it count as a net gain on the report?
5 milion new Dems.
How about 34 million.
Believe what thew mdia says,
You guys are slow.
Looks like the BLS is going to have to "pick up the slack" this Friday and report a blow-out number. Can't let the myth of the recovery die!