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"Clearly A Negative Signal": BofA Shows Thanksgiving Spending Was Biggest Dud Since Lehman
First it was Shoppertrak, then it was the National Retail Federation, then it was IBM, and now, with its own set of internal data, here is Bank of America slamming the door shut on US retail spending as a source of Q4 growth, and proving once and for all that the extended Thanksgiving-weekend, and the start to US holiday spending season, was the biggest dud since Lehman.
From BofA:
The BAC internal data showed a sluggish start to the holiday shopping season. Spending on BAC credit and debit cards over Thanksgiving and Black Friday declined 1.6% yoy. In order to restrict the sample to holiday-related spending, we are measuring “core control” sales, which nets out food services, gasoline, building materials and autos, making it a comparable sample to the Census Bureau’s data. While not as dismal as the 11% yoy decline reported by the National Retail Federation (NRF), our data supports the weak anecdotes.
This is how the data looks in context, courtesy of Goldman. As we said: biggest dud since Lehman.
Of course, it wouldn't be a conflicted sell-side firm whose year end bonus is dependent on boosting confidence in a global pyramid scheme if BofA didn't provide at least some silver lining. Which it did.
Although this is clearly a negative signal, it does not mean the overall holiday shopping season will be a bust, in our view. As Chart 1 shows, the NRF data has no correlation (actually an inverse relationship) with overall holiday sales from the Census Bureau. The BAC data historically have a better fit, since it measures actual sales unlike the surveys, but it still has fairly low forecasting power. There are a few reasons to advise caution when interpreting Black Friday sales. For one, measuring sales over a two-day period is naturally noisy, but particularly since retailers adjust the promotion schedule over the years. As we show in Chart 2, the promotions start earlier each year making the “door buster” deals of Black Friday less appealing. Moreover, the shift toward online shopping provides greater access to sales and incentives, also taking the focus away from Black Friday. The bottom line is that while we tempered our optimism, we still look for holiday sales to increase this year given the improving economic backdrop.
Well, at least BofA didn't use the NRF's idiotic "the economy is too strong for shopper to need a deal" excuse. As for the spin: yes, there is still hope. Because otherwise how would one explain spending slumping to recessionary levels at a time when the Departments of Truth would have everyone believe unemployment is the lowest in nearly a decade, while GDP is supposedly growing at a pace not seen since in years (the real story of America's "adjusted" GDP was explained here).
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"Missed it by > that < much." - Janet 'Maxwell Smart' Yellen
29.5 hr/wk jobs. Obamacare. Amnesty.
Hello....is anybody out there?
"Since Lehman".....didn't those guys die or something?
Come on, guys. It's because of several mitigating factors.
First, it's rained for a few days in California.
Second, everybody stayed home worrying that that nuclear reactor in the Ukraine could have trouble. Folks have fretted about that for months, now.
Third, everything is coming up roses and happiness so all the girls, feeling liberated from their daily chores since all the illegals are going to even wipe our butts, pulled out their old Martha Stewart VHS tapes and are handcrafting Xmas presents form recyclables.
QUITCHURBITCHIN!
fucking morons... shits falling apart and the only panacea is moar propaganda.... might as well be the fucking end of days ...
Quick!!! Give the banksters some moar bonuses! They'll save us!
If only the plebs could borrow more money! If only real estate was moar expensive! Then it would be happy times again!
Stop panicking. All that lack of spending means one thing. People have lots of munny in their pockets and they're planning on spending it next week.
Clearly a negative signal....
Of course, he was referring to the PMs market
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1994-04-08/
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1994-04-09/
Trees don't grow to the sky
A strong wind and this tree will fall over!
It's gonna take a hurricane... The house of cards is held together with printing superglue...
nah--it's held together by the glue made from the cattle that came before us.
Still, some pretty strong shit.
Hillary Clinton knows cattle.....maybe we should ask her.
CLINTON ? CUNTON? The difference is a tiny little bit of white space. Maybe use a square font sans serif too.
What? Oh, nothing, I didn't - oh, did I type that out loud?
Nahh.. Just the hint of a mild breeze will snap it like a straw now.
@Eyeroller
It's gonna take a hurricane... The house of cards is held together with printing superglue...
If we combine the 2
The glue is contaminating (poison) the water the tree needs for growth thus killing it
It's all Bullshit!!!
"green shoots" "ongoing recovery" "economic propaganda"
we never recovered, we never fixed the problems, we are between crashes, we are boned.
If the only 'fix' expected was to kick the can down the road, then your description above sounds like a rousing success.
We 'recoveried' some folks...
Black Friday to Grey Thursday to Cyber Monday to Cyber Week to Red December.
Take away the middle class, shrink down the % of the population that is able to afford to spend relatively easily on discretionary goods/services from roughly 45% (during the 1960s) to 10% (now; soon to be 5% after next bubble burst/crash), and you get...
...terminal decline.
The last 6 years has essentially been a debt-fueled re-inflationary period, from consumer borrowing (record debt levels) to corporate bond/debt issuance (record levels, to buy back shares), to governmental spending (record debt).
this is impossible. my TV has assured me time and time again that we are in a recovery.
Your TV lies. The good news is since you believe everything your TV 'tells' you, it ain't a lie unless your don't believe it. The solution is just to open the mind, shut down the curiosity quotient and relax.
/sarc
So it's kinda like watching porn?
Good for a moment's bliss then back to reality of a raw, messy world.
BTW.....
Anybody but me ever notice how porn is allowed 24/7/365, no problemo on the net, etc?
Nothing done by TPTB to curtail it in spite of all their ramblings and bullshit about telling us how to live politically correct lives, etc?
Nope, not a whimper.
Know why?
It's the circus half of bread and circuses.
My "credible news source" (CNN) is telling me screaming "burning the bitch down!" (to an angry mob which then proceeds to do just that) "is okay."
Mind you the ACTUAL burning is bad...but screaming at everyone to do it OTAY.
I laugh because this really is why people watch television actually. "Social Media" is indeed downright quiescent next to the Big Boys. God forbid if someone had come out before the verdict and asked for folks to be smart and not destroy anything!
Now excuse me while I go back to my 12th quarter of
No I really don't care about your "football" or your "Basketball" or your "baseball" or your God damn fucking "hockey" either.
Taxpayer financed rioting really isn't my thing...and Demon Lord Zirapton of Mythos really is my hero.
So there.
We are in a recovery.
Except, it's not you and I that are recovering. It's "some other people."
Then "WE" are not in a recovery, "THEY" are in a recovery, "WE" are in a nasty brooding long term depression. Also "WE" are getting raped by "THEM"
Just a matter of how you decide to officially group things.
I don't believe I belong to any sort of social group, but people readily group me amongst whatever they might assume I might be part of.
Like here: I don't really consider myself part of a "ZH" group, but by consequence of action(posting on this blog) I am considered a group participant.
"WE" are unfortunately part of the official "we."
Solution? People need to open their eyes and get away from the teat.
@ ZH Snob
this is impossible. my TV has assured me time and time again that we are in a recovery.
This is impossible. My TV (President Trans Vestite) has assured me time and time again that we are in a recovery.
fixed it for you
Sales sucked. People knew they sucked. End of story. That and 29 hour weeks and stagnant to decreasing salaries over the past 6 years while expenses are up 30% in that time isn't helping shit either.
Don't forget!
The costs of health insurance have skyrocketed with no doctors taking BammyKare plans, a shit load of additional taxes kicking in within 27 more days, and fines if you don't have it.
Clusterfuck deluxe that hasn't even hit, yet.
Plus, don't for get about that 1099 part whateverthefuck you're supposed to fill in for every transaction of $600 or more.
Every last single fucking transaction.
This guy's gonna be less popular than Carter's ratings subtracted from Bush's
People already "bought" up all the bargains at Ferguson. They don't need to buy anything else till next year.
Has Jim Cramer been notified?
This includes CC's. That's why the numbers look week. You see, since the recovery has strengthened, people are using the stacks of cash they have and not their credit card. I think everyone will be surprised when the final, adjusted numbers are revealed.
-MSM
instead of Black friday or cyber Monday. next year make it Cyber Sheeple Month (from Thanksgiving to Xmas)
PS: Make sure to give the sheeple a week off paid so they can spend the cash they do not have
Half the fucking population's got 100% paid time off.
But Spending Dud==Saving Boom
Success!!!!
Jesus' birthday season
Jesus was actually not born in December per roman tax laws, since the whole manger thing occured on the way to pay the taxes.
Jesus' birthday was moved to december so it would occur at the time of an already celebrated holiday, the pagan winter festival of the winter equinox december 21st.
If jesus had a sister or a wife, we could celebrate her birth in June and thus have 2 sales cycles to keep the economy humming as we shop our way to armegeddon.
Religion may be the opiate of the masses, but shopping is a close second. work however remains the curse of the drinking class.
Jesus was married to Mary and had kids.
My sponsor keeps asking me why I seem to think that I'm the last living descendent of JesusHFuckingChrist.
Saving is the worst thing for this economy.
Those evil hoarders of cash (grandma and grandpa) need to be penalized more.
why do ccard co's get 18% on money while I get .01%?? car loans, home loans, none near 0.01% seems some people's money is better than us common folk..anybody in DC seeing this and asking why are savers getting the rates we do? no noone in power wants to ask that question.
People in Power have asked the question and are just fine with the present answer.
According to Old Yeller, you should just gather up some assets to solve the issue...
But the best thing for you
Just to be clear, I obviously don't believe saving is bad for a free market, capitalistic nation- but a debt-based, consumeristic, nation where 70% of GDP is consumerism cannot stand savers.
We dudded some folks
Its survival..not spending...people are only buying things to survive..food..housing..and maybe even health insurance..although I think many people are dropping that....they have car and school loans to pay off now too
How about seeing BACs and AMEX's spending data for those Black type cards. Do you think they'll be down 1% year-on-year?
I don't think so....
Jesus wants Amerikans to go out and spend spend spend. Also don't forget your IPADS , Venue, Surface, Android, Iphone crap as well.
The corporation I work for just bough thousands of Ipads. Gonna make us more productive and efficient, they say. Our desktops and laptops are now obsolete, they say.
Then when it failed to do what it promised,,, use your laptops, they say.
Betcha the IT/Marketing guy gets promoted.
They still can go another round with the new "Thinker" device: a strap to your head computer that does the thinking for you.
I have a different theory. Looking at the chart, those were the explosive sales for the big door openers up on the front end. I'm willing to bet that a fair amount of that stuff was for the purchaser, not bought as gifts. Most people have stopped giving a sh_t that much for others. It's a bit selfish, but welcome to America. Now the rest of the holiday will be cheaply shopped out. They'll need two or three more Black Friday's, or some more looting to move that merchandise.
+1 Silverer.
Most people who comprise the broader consumer economy (shrinking middle class) are forced to pull back on discretionary spending as the cost of food, consumbales, insurances, etc. all rise. Talk about lower gas prices maybe helping to boost sales is just laughable.
Maybe a Black Friday for gas once a month? Lol.
$2.75 regular yesterday!
Daily looting? Already being scheduled.
It's for the corporation..... OOOPPS, I meant children
Iraq denies Lebanon captured wife of ISIS Leader Baghdadi despite daughter’s positive DNA test
France parliament votes in support of recognizing Palestine, Israel says peace process will suffer
The lack of shoppers on the morning of Black Friday shocked even me, not only were the parking lots empty but many of the stores had more employees working than customers. My office is across from the second largest mall in my state so as I went into work an unplanned visit seemed in order.
Foot traffic inside the mall was far less than I imagined, most of the shoppers were younger women and older girls. These are considered the "core" and most diehard of shoppers. Many were carrying few if any bags, this indicates little in the way of buying. The article below includes a picture of foot traffic at 7:00am and looks at why animal spirits in reaction to Black Friday were far less enthusiastic than in the past. Note that stores did fill as the day went on.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/retail-sales-expectations-should-be.html
I went shopping Friday morning. No line at Home Depot. No line at Staples. No line at Walmart. 2 people in line at Sears. Plenty of "door buster" deals still available at my Walmart at 11:30am. Seemed strange not to see many shoppers on "Black Friday". I guess the masses went shopping on Thursday night. Glad I stayed home and avoided the crowds. Still got everything I needed too.
Who goes shopping at 7am??? Get out of bed at 10 am, bumble off to the shops at 2pm. Or more likely, waddle to the shops ten minutes before closing time (err, assuming you guys still have a closing time). That's when you need to be taking photos of the traffic.
Re from the link : "I picked up a spare 'basic' circular saw that was on sale for $29.95. I have about ten of these but they tend to get dropped and banged around until they lose the ability to give a perfect cut." Spend some real money ONCE. Get a real circular saw that won't break. Sure it may still be "cheaper" to buy the cheap shit ten times, but you're not factoring in the lack of torque, the time spent going to the shop, the time spent fixing damaged work, the good manufacturer losing Economies of Scale and going broke because of people like you, the extra space in your shed that is filled with crap ...
It's cute to think "This tool is so cheap that I could include a new one in every quote for every job" but that's all it is - a dumb thought.
Sometimes if you want to make the world a better place you have to open up your wallet and pay for it.
Or I can sell you a cardboard cut-out of a circular saw. Fuck, it doesn't do much but it's cheap! And if you drop it then it won't lose ANYthing in performance!
Logged in just to upvote this part of the comment "Spend some real money ONCE. Get a real circular saw that won't break."
I love getting tools for Christmas but all my cheap ass relatives buy me the bargain bin crap that works for 5 minutes then dies, like cordless stuff where the battery lifew is 5 minutes per recharge and 3 recharges till dead battery.
Enough of this I said, from now on, just buy me a Home Despot gift card and I'll save em up an d buy a real tool (once and forever).
I even tried walking my signifiant other throught he tool aisle last week showing here the difference betwen cheap crap and the good stuff...........
See Dear, thisis the shit that your family buys me..............
This is the stuff I want.................. (notice the difference here?)...........
THAT shit is expensive (she says)............
YES (I say) sometimes you actually get what you pay for.
I bought a cheap battery drill for an apprentice once. (Yes, putting my own money where my mouth was so the precious company didn't have to spend their money, yes I regret being so poor at the time.) For myself I have an expensive drill that works - enough torque to rip your arm off, charges in about half an hour, good batteries.
I ended up apologising to the apprentice and told him not to use the cheap shit I'd bought him. Fuck-all torque, batteries charge in 13 hours, shittiest NiCds on the market. Had to keep sharing.
But BofA is probably missing the critical 'hookers & blow' component ...that should add 5% right there.
(It usually is charged under woodworking services for me which they excluded)
Bullish! Another 120 points on the DOW today! Dontcha just love the "free" market.
All of this matters not. The greatest bull market of all time has nearly tripled since the Mar 09 lows. BTATFH bitchezz!
Time for a crisis---
We thought it was going to be Ebola......crap shoot there.....we're looking for fresh ideas.
Actually, President Golfstix thought it was time to keep Ebola off the news, because shoppers would be scared from malls, thus lower revenue. Ebola will return in time for X-mas.
bankers and billion holidays....they have to get out there buying TVs for their 200 room houses! Maybe they could give bonuses to their cleaning staff at thanksgiving...kind of like the traditional Boxing Day where lords gave the staff the day off after Christmas with a small gift for their 364 days of underpaid service! We could call it Fed Day! And a Happy Fed Day to all!
Fed Day? Banksters? Giving bonuses to their cleaning staff? No. Those guys would LEND bonuses to their cleaning staff. Fixed it for you.
blah blah blah.
ZH + many other sites talk about doom and gloom..
I got it already.. Yes I think a crash is inevitabl, the question I have is...........
HOW CAN I MAKE MONEY FROM IT BESIDES GOLD/SILVER
You're on the wrong bus. Ain't gonna find the answer here. Got the whole internet to investigate but you can't get past the ZH site. Welcome to the club. "My name is PT and I am a ZH addict" ...
ZH is the only site I visit anymore besides scanning google news.
Quality of reporting & articles on other sites are abysmal.
Isn't that interesting? Got a whole world of information and yet this is the best we can find.
Like having a newsagency full of magazines but still nowhere near enough information.
As a kid I thought I could find all the answers in Encyclopaedias. Or at least in the whole library.
I was wrong back then, too.
Perhaps I need a better search engine, or make my own ...
Everything of use, I learned from ZeroHedge. More for the insightful commentary on articles, more than the content of the article itself.
Aside from the occassional outbreaks of racism and the occassional ad Hom, (I`m totally Ok with the rules of Fight Club) the insight in the comments are very often some brilliant stuff.
Man I have learned so much here from folks sharing perspectives, I am honored to partake in the insights of many who contribute comments and expand on themes presented.
Best time I spend on the net. BY FAR! I talk this site up every chance I get.
If you REALLY want to understand the shit that is going on, check out Zerohedge`.......... its the folloup conversations that I have afterward that are priceless.
I`ve lost count of the number of people that have come back to me scared shitless (atleast I know theyve been awakened`)
The only things on Yahoo these days are cute animal stories, recipes, sports and gossip about celebrities.
But all my frenz are on the short bus....
Of course I look elsewhere. Would be nice to see a post or two with ideas.. Since they are only ideas, no one has the exact answer..
This is an Obamanation!
Just another little anecdote from my corner of the world.
I went to Cabela's in Christiana, DE last night after work to pick up an "in store delivery" online order (bullets, of course, what did you all expect?).
There was almost NO ONE there. I remember when just a few years ago, I would have to strategically plan my visits to a Cabela's to try to avoid the humongous crush of floor traffic and the long lines at EVERY cashier that were the norm almost EVERY day of EVERY week of the year.
The more I think about it, the scarier I realize the situation really is.
But you made a good point. Bullets. Maybe they should focus on bullets, because they make more sense as our government makes less and less sense.
Because Obamacare....
Funny, the news this morning on Seattle channels is how amazingly wonderful cyber Monday sales figures were
I tried to cash a check for four grand at a local wells fargo the other day. It took them 20 minutes to do it (it was even a Wells fargo payroll check), and they just gave me loads of delays and hassle. They clearly don't want people to have cash anyMOAR. When I told the chick that was running the show that morning "God, what a hassle!" she of course could barely hear me through the plexiglass anti-negro cage and thought I said "asshole", so I had to put out that fire.
Finally they start counting out the money, had to run all over the place looking for a goddamn paltry two grand in 50s, the girl counting the money was getting flustered when I quietly old her "yet another reason people don't want to do business with large banks"...and...and...they carged me 7.50 for the goddamn privilege.
Cash and stack. Cash and stack. Only put enough in my CU account to cover whatever bills I pay out of that. Fucking fuck that goddamn apapratus in its bleeding, infected ass.
Another reason to keep stacking. Thanks for the story. Crap, what if you had asked for 7K, or 9K? Can't imagine.
Tell 'em your time is worth $100 per hour and send them the bill.
Yeah, I know, just fantasizing (but apparently it has been done before).
Holiday spending will be a slaughter.
People usually buy their gifts and junk on Black Friday etc to take advantage of free shipping and promotions and junk.
BUT
Nothing to buy... all new major products were released months ago . . . and everyone has everything.
Maybe we will get one Xmas where people spend it with their families at dinner talking instead of playing with some useless gadget.
I consider lower holiday spending a good sign for Americans... more people awake and cautious and spending time with family instead of shopping like a drone.
Taxes paid in to US gov't continue at RECORD LEVELS.
.."Taxes paid in to US gov't continue at RECORD LEVELS"..
..and for all you half empty glass types out there who say there's no happy face for this article.. hah..aha.
.."beatings will continue until moral improves".. that is all.
What? What? Some honest numbers? What? Slap me!
Yea, so what? New highs in the SP500 and Dow 30; time to go full retard LONG all equity markets. What could possibly go wrong?
www.traderzoo.mobi
Just as "Black Friday Week" is hurting Black Friday and Cyber Monday Comps, all of this activity is pulling forward sales out of Christmas Month. Retailers KNOW that shoppers have $500-1000 to spend and most of that is gone the first sale day meaning the rest of December is likely to comp poorly with prices being slashed 2 weeks to Xmas to try to make up for volume drops...my guess is this Xmas is down 2.5% YOY
Where I live the most packed places were the local brewery and the bars. So the new Brack Fliday seems to be getting a jump on getting drunk to deal with the skunk that's stinking up the a Holiday Season.
Seems easier to do your alcohol shopping the night before Brack Fliday so you can wake up early to get toasted to watch a bunch of morons act like primates.
Irish coffees all around.
trump our Cabelas in chicago surburb closed down the second floor three years ago. Their prices and attitudes are ridiculous here anyway. I finf Gander Moumtain store and staff much more accomodating. Walmart has lowest ammo prices if you time your visit right