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Crushing The "Lower Gas Price = More Spending" Fiction
Excerpted from Sterne Agee's Chief Economist Lindsey Piegaz report,
Caveats to the equation: lower gas prices = more spending
Aside from the long-standing issues of minimal income growth and lackluster job creation, consumers have become accustomed to an end-of-the-year price reprieve at the pump, and in some cases are simply using the increased funds to offset rising utilities and health care costs. We explore the various facets of this in further detail below:
1) Consumers have become accustomed to extreme volatility in energy prices. Particularly around this time of year, consumers are increasingly familiar with energy price reprieve from summer gas prices and no longer adjust their long-term spending habits as much, or at all, based on short-term price fluctuations.
Since reaching a high of $3.69 in June, average gas prices have fallen more than fifty cents a gallon, to a monthly average of $3.17 as of October, and have continued to fall throughout the early weeks of November. While impressive, this four-month decline is hardly unusual. In 2011, retail gasoline prices fell from an average monthly high of $3.91 in May to $3.27 by year-end, a decline of nearly sixty-five cents over seven months.
Then again in 2012, after ratcheting up to $3.85 at the end of September, gasoline prices tumbled more than fifty cents a gallon in just three months, down to $3.31 before turning the corner to 2013. And finally, last year told a similar story of lower energy prices before the holidays, dropping nearly thirty-five cents by the end of the year to $3.28 a gallon.
In each case, retail spending was hardly robust with an average monthly sales pace of 0.4% over the past four years. In fact, the largest monthly increase was in September 2012, up over 1%, thanks to a hefty increase in electronics purchases corresponding to the release of the iPhone 5. This September, retail sales saw a similar boost from the release of the iPhone 6.
As consumers increasingly anticipate sub-$3 gas prices to be more common in the coming year, however, according to the NACS, consumers say they are more willing to increase spending in the near term. In other words, as consumers anticipate permanency in price cuts at the pump, they are more inclined to adjust and increase consumption. According to the latest survey of consumer optimism, 21% of shoppers interviewed say they are looking forward to spending more in the coming months, up from just 15% in October. Although, the survey also found that 65% of Americans plan to spend the same this holiday season, with only 14% pointing to gas prices as a catalyst to potentially spending more.
2) Energy prices are going down, perhaps temporarily, but other costs are going up, some permanently.
While gas prices are aggressively retreating, cost savings at the pump are simply helping to offset price increases in other areas of household spending, particularly utilities and healthcare services. Service expenditures typically account for two-thirds of consumer spending, with the remaining one-third comprised of goods consumption. The largest component of service expenditure is housing and utilities, and as winter ensues, heating bills rise, diverting even more spending power to household energy consumption. While some conditions appear to have the consumer on better footing relative to last year’s harsh polar vortex, with winter storms already making their way across the Northeast and Southwest, and temperatures dropping in some areas to the single digits, consumers are already spending their savings from the pump on heating the family house.
In 2013, consumers ramped up service spending at the end of the year at the expense of goods spending, as Americans enrolled in Obamacare. The average family shelled out an extra $600 over the winter season to combat one of the coldest and snowiest winters in years. Of course, rising natural gas prices only exacerbated the situation in early 2014, with a high of $6/MMBtu by February. This year, again, consumers may not escape unscathed. Already natural gas prices have far exceeded levels this time last year, and according to the Farmer’s Almanac, this winter will be colder than normal, “with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February.” Furthermore, snowfall is expected to be above normal in most regions with the snowiest periods in mid-December, and mid-January. In other words, lower prices at the pump may have translated into an extra $100 for the average family, but many Americans bracing for another terrible winter are hoping for further gas price reprieve, enough to cover higher winter heating bills.
Behind only housing and utilities, healthcare is the largest component of consumer service spending at 26%, accounting for nearly 18% of total household spending. In part driven by the availability of excellent treatment and the latest technology, and in part by the Affordable Care Act, both healthcare costs and total expenditures are rapidly rising. According to a national online private insurance exchange, health insurance premiums have increased between 39-56% since early 2013. For an average family, that means paying $663 a month, an increase of $230 a month or nearly $3,000 annually. Over the past three months, a price decline of more than $0.50 a gallon has left consumers with a modest increase of cash in their pocket, ranging between $80-100 assuming the average two-car household fills up each 20-gallon tank at least four times a month. And while a savings of $100 is hardly something to sneeze at, relative to rising healthcare costs 30 times greater, such savings is hardly momentum to ramp up spending when other bills need to be paid.
3) Consumer confidence reflects a relatively better holiday season.
Thinking back to the winter of 2013, it’s hard to argue consumers are not relatively better off this time around. After all, last year’s holiday season was dominated by a government shutdown and an extremely harsh winter weather which, based on personal opinion entirely, was the worst winter in history. This year, while consumers were inundated with negative ads surrounding the mid-term elections, most consumer surveys show consumer sentiment was more widely affected by overall economic concerns such as improvement in the labor market, international risks including the threat of the deadly Ebola virus, and pocketbook issues such as falling gas prices and rising healthcare costs. Still, as retailers count on just these last few months of the year for up to 40% of their annual revenues, a relatively more confident consumer may not be enough to ensure more “merry” this holiday season. After rising 0.6% in August, an above trend rise, consumer spending has been flat with October’s rise simply offsetting the decline the month prior.
While consumers may feel on stronger footing relative to the quicksand in Nov/Dec 2013, enough to continue to drive expectations higher, consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains little changed over the past three months following an initial pop in August as gas prices began their descent. In other words, the limited boost in sales in August as a result of increased consumer confidence may have been the extent of the ramp up in spending resulting from a decline in gas prices.
4) The labor market remains suboptimal, leading to increased savings.
Some consumers are increasingly willing to spend now in anticipation of increased spending power down the road. For many Americans, however, unemployment and underemployment have dampened the outlook for future earnings. Despite being more than five years into the recovery, wages remains stagnant, undermining optimism for an increased ability to finance today’s spending with tomorrow’s wages. In the October Employment report, while headline job creation rose 214k and the unemployment rate fell further to 5.8%, average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in October, maintaining a stagnant 2% annual pace. In fact, average wage increases have remained stubbornly low at a 1.9% annual pace since 2010.
With uncertainty lingering and patience wearing thin after five+ years of still lackluster wage growth, consumers are increasing saving for the future, hedging against a continuation of “more of the same.” Thus, for many, extra savings at the pump as a result of lower gas prices are simply being stored away to help supplement spending needs in the future, ramping up savings, not spending. As of September, consumers increased savings from 5.4% to a 5.6% pace, up from a recent low of 4.3% in November of last year.
Conclusion
Against the backdrop of three consecutive months of aggressive energy price reprieve, retail sales have fallen short. With more than a $0.50 drop in the average cost of a gallon of gasoline, anything less than a minimal 0.5% increase in monthly retail sales highlights just how fragile the U.S. economy remains, particularly the consumer sector. While the weakness in October was dominated by a few categories, there was insufficient demand elsewhere to compensate. Consumers continue to spend, but at a modest level with no sign of further momentum in sight with income growth stubbornly limited, and consumers opting to use savings from lower gas prices to offset rising healthcare and utilities costs. We are, after all, a consumer based economy, and if the consumer is struggling to go out and spend on goods and services, or if Americans are simply hesitant to ramp up spending, it could be a very un-merry holiday season for retailers. From the Fed’s perspective, if consumer spending continues to disappoint, headline activity is likely to significantly underperform monetary policy officials’ optimistic forecast of +2% in 2014 and circa 3% in 2015.
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Savings is a good thing, it's where capital comes from. How do these guys not get that.
lol@zerohedge logic, gas price going up is bad, gas price going down is also bad.
Getting rid of oil is part of the Eco-fascist agenda
Next we are all forced to eat this diet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOW5eljyjms
F,
Oil will get rid of itself within 10-20 years.
I would say that with carbon caps and greenhouse emission regs you can be assured that hydrocarbons (including gasoline) will only be available for the 1%. Can't have the proles using up all the valuable resources now, can we?
Oh wait, it's for the children.
Over the time with high gas price, we have our habits changed. No matter what the gas price, we are not driving.
They taught us that in school too. Back in the 70's.
any day now, I guess, right?
Oil will be around until it finally gets expensive enough for human ingenuity and the free market to come up with an alternative, regardless of what the Eco fascists pull. And this whole 'low prices at the pump equals moar spending meme is stupid. If I have 7 or 8 dollars filling up my truck every couple weeks, that hardly adds up to a lot of extra money for me. Although now that I think about it, I may literally take that extra 8$ or so and swing by the coin shop down the street and pick up a couple pre 64 quarters, keep them seperate from the rest of my stack, and see how much I save before oil is back up to 100 again
"free market" oh man, that was a good one! Where are you gonna be doing your stand up routine next, I wanna attend!
Well, duh!
This is just as stupid as the "money on the sidelines" argument for stocks.
Spending towards GDP is a zero-sum game. If the money isn't spent on gas it will be spent elsewhere. Any gain in those other areas will be offset by slowing/layoffs in the petro-chemical sector...
Let's see. I saved about $40 in gas the last two weeks. I bought some new drill bits online on sale during Black Friday. So basically I just replaced items that I needed to instead of postponing the purchase with the gas prices declining. In the end, I'm only using the money to stock up on more food and ammo because most of the idiots have no clue how bad a deflationary implosion can get (also known as Fedrape) before the printing presses go into hyperdrive. Thus the OP is spot on. This is illusionary bullshit promoted once again by the MSM.
Yes, the net effect is zero (assuming there is no additional savings and all funds previously allocated to energy purchases are spent rather than saved). However, I know I would much rather spend my money on discretionary items than have food/shelter/energy non-discretionary purchases consume a larger (and larger) percentage of my income.
So let's crush the "Lower Gas Price Does Not Have a Consumer Benefit" Fiction. Of course it has a benefit if you're living paycheck to paycheck and instead of spending money at the pump you can buy something else of your choosing. To suggest otherwise is a bunch of bullshit and only shows how out of touch you are with the 99%.
I think one of the Tylers was a bit too long oil futures as this is now the second article on this subject.
Cheap energy is key to having more money for other things that make life more fulfilling.
Spending 99% of income on gas and 1% income on food/housing/etc makes for a sad life.
To whomever junked me: You cannot logically argue that high gas prices are good for the economy in general unless you think everyone should only work in the gas industry.
I don't think humans have evolved to drink, eat, wear, and live inside gasoline yet.
No, no, no. Just wrong.
ZH logic is MAKE $$ FROM advertising through publishing content.. right or wrong.. he always wins .. study
DRUNK OFF gasoline.. it is FREE.. free i say... oh wait.. i am dead.
http://www.hedgeaccordingly.com
Finally, gasoline has reached a competitve price point with 2 buck chuck.
Time to start huffin' again!
You are confused. Capital comes from a IBM-XT in the basement at the Federal Reserve. Send out over a 300 baud modem when needed.
But it is full duplex.
Do they have to wrap the modem in a damp towel to muffle extraneous noise during transmission?
You joke, but it is the truth.
I wasn't joking.
There's no denying that cheap energy is good for the economy. The problem is that the oil price is being temporarily manipulated for political reasons and will cause malinvestment.
In the last 2 months I have purchased 3/4 oz. of gold and 70 oz. of silver with my savings. And ammo. And binoculars, sleeping bags, three cords of wood, 3 bottles of high ended booze, toilet paper, samitary wipes, bath soap and other non-perishable items. Bought a Tanfolio 9 22, too. Love it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYkLg2spkz8
Good move, Bro, you can't go wrong with that. Also give grace to our Father by who's word everything comes to be and he will keep you. Folk will think you were lucky.
So I'm checking out of a well known chain store today buying lots of "stuff" not costing much for a Xmas family grab bag for under the tree. And somehow much to my surprise, the check out guy starts talking about the state of the world. How he as a retiree isn't making it because of low interest rates. (Duh... the savers of the country are losing Quadbazillions of purchasing power with next to bupkus rates) and so he gets to be a check out guy during the holidays. Low pay, no bennies, etc., etc., etc. So I said, I know, I understand. It's hitting all of us... and he launches into the 0.1% versus the 90%, the SOB's in DC having only one principle, that being campaign contributions, etc., etc., etc.... Jesus God people, I thought I was reading a thread here and wondered if I was looking in the mirror or in a dream.
He goes on to say, with a pleasant smile on his face, no malice intended, that he's betting there's gonna be a "revolution"..., that the little peeps is gonna go after some of them rich PTB's.
Seriously.
If this guy is speaking like this to strangers (aka moi) my guess is that the "sheeple" ain't so sheepled, anymore.
Quite the eye opener.
N'come to think of it, I never myself thought of a big ass box family grab bag with snacks, tea, chocolate, dressings, etc., in it. That's kinda thrifty.
Huh...
Should have ended with a Fuck Yellen or Fuck Bernanke and see if he reacted. ZH needs a secret handshake.
It is kind of amazing the kinds of things total strangers will say out loud these days, isn't it? I've had numerous similar conversations recently. There's a foul wind blowing.
i think it is just coming out in the open. it is not the taboo subject it was just a year or two ago. i find people i meet trying to work it into the conversation by feeling around the edges first. a cangress with a 10% approval rating is a harbinger of eventual big problems if it doesn't improve. its in the air.
it also apolitical for the most part, as in, this is a common problem with a common goal.
the millenniels have to ignite it. that is history.
I get a big laugh out of the old line (I think it derives from Mark Twain): "If 'Pro' is the opposite of 'Con,' what's the opposite of 'Progress?'" Slays 'em every time.
That 'feeling' has been in the air a while and growing.
I know it well.Felt it in Tehran, and Kabul before those govt.s overthrows were about to
happen.
knukles, I'll add to that.
My sons were home for Thanksgiving and brought some friends. All from what I consider VERY liberal schools of higher learning. they talked about being pissed at the government, bankers and the 0.1% ers, tired of affirmative action/political correctness BS (two of my kids' friends were minorities) and talking of violent changes coming. Not necessarily starting a revolution, mind you, but certainly understanding and possibly joining in when the time came. It wasn't expected. Apparently, there are things going on at schools that the MSM are not highlighting.
I was quiet the whole time. Just told them that's why I'm getting ready. Three of the kids had never fired a gun, we fixed that one afternoon.
So many of these "articles" act like over $100 oil was "normal". It was not. Prices are going down and have yet to reach where they were a few short years ago.
This makes me fear they will attack another oil producer and take out the production.
"attack another oil producer and take out the production" = forcing shale oil operations to default on loans
Same gig as forcing gold miners out of business
Same gig as foreclosed subprime mortgages
Take your pick.
Venezuela,Iran or Russia.Or all three.
I'll take Venezuela for $100 a barrel, Alex.
no. they only export a couple million barrels, and it's very hard to refine. only a few refiners globally can handle it.
Our US administration just needs to build more wind farms, solar grids, and battery manufactures to combat this Federal Reserve Petrodollar Recycling Terrorism Group.
/LMFAO
I went into the Wally World lawn garden area to get some grass seed this morning. It is cold, overcast and raining here.
It was very dark. I asked the lady working there to turn on the lights, it was hard to see.
She said they are on, these are solar lights. No sun, no lights.
Ok. This is going to save us?
Yes it will, Man controlling nature is archaic. We need to live in harmony with the planet like all the other species. That means growing some fur or dying in the cold.
As a former Infantryman, I have been struggling with nature for decades. It is not kind and I don't want to live in a hole in the ground if I have a choice. I like heat and light and mobility. I am not another species. I am MAN.
I am a man, I need a reason. That's the problem with thinking you're exceptional.
You are right, you convinced me. I will commence growing fur and move into a rabbit hole.
Good for you. You will be blessed by Gaia and modern Libs.
Talk about growing fur, tweezing out publes and sticking them into knitting needle holes hurts.
Get out of your man cave and start addressing the problems. I don’t live off of table scrapes, nor should you. This country was built on entrepreneurial spirit, not Marxism hand downs. Start pushing the buttons on the cancer within Washington, DC. They will disperse once the light switch is clicked on. Winks.
Pull your head out of asshole and grow some balls.
Yes sir. That's why I'm not here all day talking shit like some keyboard warrior. I come here for laughs and to bust chops once in while, the rest of the time I'm personally creating REAL CHANGE.
How may I ask? Keyboard warrior? Looks like I have you beat by a couple of ZH years..
You can start by being the man the system wanted to destroy. Lead by example, fight without fear, stand for what you believe in and others will follow your lead. Every modern bitch male or female needs a real man. IN ZH terms, be more like a Putin, ecxpt that fag don't have any hair on his chest either.
Just architecturally identifying US Chiquita Banana in Chief lies. Await his response tomorrow. Today’s collateral damage will keep him a busy detached Negro boy. He will make phone calls to receive guidance.
We judge people by what's in their head. Just cause you're white don't mean shit and don't mean you will be allowed into my camp. In fact the whiter rats are the ones that need extra testing.
I have plenty of Afro-Americans friends in my camp. They’re just educated. Am I corresponding with Al Sharpton?
In fact, my next door neighbor is a black democrat legislator. He has that taxpayer license plate on the back of his car. Despite our party differences, he is a old school JFK democrat. Not a Marxist type. We seldom talk politics, great neighbor to have. How is your rat test coming along?
"I have plenty of Afro-Americans friends in my camp."
I don't have any, I just have friends, you pussified politically correct wormbait of a western man.
They used to pump water uphill into reservoirs during off peak demand(pricing) and let it back down
thru' the turbines during peak.The modern equivalent to digging a hole to fill it back in.
Probably still do it.Insanity.
Like Archimedes, they were attempting to control the flow of nature, shame on them.
Lower oil and gas prices is just a minor relieve to an already crushed and destroyed middle class. It might tempararily has a positive effect on spending (that would otherwise have been spent at the pump), but crushes the producers. It's really just like balck gold. The blowback of this lunacy might well prove to be severe. Good luck ya'll.
Since June in the UK, Crude futures from about 114 to 69 (a drop of about 40%). Move in prices at the pump from about £1.30 (I've gone for the high side there) to about £1.17 a litre, a move of about 10%.
That's going to make me go out and spend....
DavidC
Yeah, but Duty,tax and VAT are most of that price.
HM govt. are not going to reduce those.
I'll admit I don't drive much and don't know how much other people drive. I have a 2007 Toyota Yaris. I buy a 10-gallon tank of gas about every three weeks. I work from home and most of my trips are 5 miles or less. I drive about 7500 miles a year. My wife drives to work, about 5 miles away, every day. She puts on maybe 10,000 miles per year, and fills up about every other week. So we buy maybe 450 gallons of gasoline per year? Call it 500 so the math is easier. At a buck less per gallon than it was last year, we're spending about $500 bucks less on gasoline, if gas prices remain at this level, than we did last year. $41.67 less per month. That's less than the increase in our health insurance premiums.
Suppose we spent twice as much on gasoline? While I won't sneer at $1000, or $83.33/month, that's not enough to shift somebody's spending pattern. That's not the difference between getting by and not getting by. And nobody trusts that this will last, so it's not enough money to free somebody up to upgrade their home internet package or do anything permanent.
The gasoline price trope in the media is a bunch of bullshit.
if you were a good patriot you would immediately go out and buy something you don't need for 5000 dollars on credit. traitor!
Get a bicycle and put a basket on it. Cut your driving to 5,000 miles per year. Or less. Save money. Improve your health. Improve our trade balance. Reduce road congestion. Very satisfying. As an added bonus, for trips of 5 miles or less, you will find the bicycle takes about the same amount of time.
Funny shit. I get more downvotes than upvotes above for dissing on carbon caps/greenhouse regs. And I get more downvotes than upvotes here for giving a shout out to bicycles. ZH getting weird... bifurcated, just like the economy.
I gave you greenies. I should use my bike more. I have one all fitted out with grocery-bag-sized baskets over the back tire. I do go to farmers markets with it, and to the grocery and other stores during the summer. In the winter here in Minneapolis that's a little ballsy for me.
There is a weird bipolarity on ZH. All the major schools of Kool-Aid drinkers are represented here. What keeps it interesting is the commenters who don't conform and really seem to be drawing their own conclusions from what they see. Weird, huh? I don't find that on too many other sites. But there are some threads I won't participate in, when the various trolls have already mucked up the conversation. Obama the Socialist, It's All Because of the Jews, Bitcoin, Scatological Practices of Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen, and for a while their Ron Paul were among the conversations I just don't need to join in on. No minds will be changed, no unique perspectives aired.
But hey, beats the hell out of any Yahoo.com comments section. And increasingly, my local newspaper.
Fuck retail and fuck prognostications.
I own props in the asshole of the US known as the Midwest. They took a shit in August and according to indicators are flatlined. Fuck the Midwest.
I live in small town Colorado and retail sucks dick. I mean as we speak, Best Buy is giving a blowjob around the corner from Cabela's.
It's over. Gather ye bargains where they lay, PS4, Roomba and the like, for this Chinese crap may never pass here again.
I've read so many fantastic commments from Z/H over the years. This thread stikes a chord.
Oil has completely collapsed, and the fact that somehow still implies demand?
Let's discuss WHY demand/ Banks and Primary Dealers are so scared that they'ld rather park their "excess reserves" at the Fed. for 10-25 basis points than lend it at "fair market" rates to small businesses and home owners "with equity".
The last time I checked the Unemployment rate was 5.9%
Oil is made by the Earth, if there is such a thing.
People are just now understanding oil's ubiquity. Cut a gash into the Gulf that never stops spilling and I guess folks get it. Eventually.
I'm all ears.
Anaerobic oxidation of hydrocarbons in crude oil by new types of sulphate-reducing bacteria
Don't start parading around those fake ass unemployment rates brother. Pravada in 1946 had more truth than Labor Dept statistics.
Just stirring the pot Moe. Most people quit before they start.
Yep, I was just pulling your leg, I'm in that kind of mood. I got EMBOLA and have been sick for 3 days, finally took some shots of Nyquil with rum. And some benadryl. I may be high.
I hope you feel better Moe. I know we tease each~other, and get nasty amongst friends at times.
Earth to Moe? Moe---Moe---Moe---. He'll be 100% in the morning.
Hug & Kisses Moe :-D
Hahahahahaa. Brilliant! Did you contact CDC for free quarantined housing accommodations? The budget forecast plan needs to be passed. You and Yen are great contributor’s. Laughing is the best thing in life. Carry on.
I didn't call the CDC but I am contacting a Lawyer on TeeVee, the Hebrew Hammer. He said I can get the Social Security disability I deserve.
I watch the ID show quite often. Heavy commercial pumping new Pharm drugs, with Attorney firms spouting entitlements against suits for civil action of medical drug claims to collect a fee. Then you have the next commercial about a company that will give you the money at the highest return rate. Instantly, no wait. We’ll pay for your settlement at the highest payment.
Total Fucking scam. Highway robbery, yet no one goes to jail.
http://www.investigationdiscovery.com/tv-shows
Yay !!! I am going to DisneyWorld....because no way The Tribe will fuck me in the future with $5 gallon gas prices.
Riding on the pre-paid Disney package deal will allow you to travel by the mono rail. Don't forget to snap pictures of Disney tree characters that are shaped into fairyland tales.
Instagram needs your participation. Rehypothecation bitchez. We Subsidize Facebook to turn a profit on stealing customer ID property. See the Zuckerburg debacle.
gives me more fiat to buy pm's
Wait for the dip comrade.
Well if consumption is consumption, why is someone a borderline terrorist for buying PMs? I thought the whole idea was to spend, spend, spend. Now you're telling me that there are only certain approved items for purchase?
And if not PMs, then what about coke & hookers?
Hookers are ok. That's why ZH has all these Ukrainian Hooker ads every time I come here. I think coke advertising is forbidden however.
Leave it to this joint to just now discover that money is fungible.
god you losers are really desperate for people to believe this nonsense, deflation is bad i tells ya
fk off.
You are correct, that is why they make those little blue pills.
In the UK petrol prices are, SIGH, just 10% lower from ATH because of the massive amount of TAX on fuel
about 134p/L to 120p/L ho hum
Love it, they are giving hundreds of billions in virtually free handouts to their buddies, but want you to spend the few dollars you save on gas so they can leaverage up their derivatives a little bit more.
<Soap box mode>
What matters is the Sustainable Employment in Occupations that pay various degrees of "Liveable Wages" for the Productive Members of our Society.
</SBM>
To do that, we need to raise Tarriffs, restrict H-1Bs, fast-track work visas for those who possess needed skillsets(rather than have them pay off/be indebted 70-80K to smugglers), and process Illegal Immigration Cases with deportations promptly.
Too harsh? Too bad. There are not enough people "gainfully employed" to sustain our 300+Million Population Base and Govt at the present.
Just because a business can get a low interest loan to manufacture a warehouse full of widgets does not mean consumers will buy the widgets. Which is precisely what is happening. The economy is slowing down because consumers are consuming less.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/purchasing-managers-index-pmi-weakens...