This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Russian Central Bank Defends Record Low 55 Level, Bonds Tumble
Since the top in oil in June, crude has dropped around 37%... and so has the Russian Ruble. Monday saw the Russian Central Bank (rumored) to intervene to protect the 54 Ruble to the USDollar level. Yesterday saw weakness resume as oil prices slipped and today it appears 55 is the new line in the sand as the USDRUB was smashed 2 handles lower earlier today (only to begin selling off once again since). Russian 10Y bond yields are leaking higher however, +20bps to break the 11% line in the sand.
Russia appears to be tracking crude almost perfectly...
It appears the Russian Central Bank is active again today...
as Bond yields are surging
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 6136 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I finally clicked on Popular 'skinny pill' has doctors raving!
Where is the pic of the hot nude chick?
Clearly, Putin is winning! The cheap ruble beats all other banks' devaluations combined!!!
Congratulations to the Chekist for great success!!!!!
LOL. Just wait until that boomarang hits the shale drillers.
I am buying property in Moscow next month so I am thrilled about the drop.
Wait a couple of months before you buy and that thrill can become a wet spot in your shorts.
of course - that's why they're defending the currency.
shame the putin fluffers have taken a pay cut. should've demanded payment in king dollars instead of the rubble
Occasionally, I log in from the library, without adblock, and see the technicolor buy, buy, buy stuff.
So many things in the world I do not need.
Cover your ass.
The fink from blackrock says 10yr could go under 2% in the short term.
I smell a rat.
If you think this is the free market at work you need a stay at the psych hospital because you are seriously delusional.
there are NO markets only interventions.
How come the oil producer known as the USA seems unaafected in these "free and honest" markets
Indeed. Especially as The US is the very target of the Saudi/Chinese strategy. This can't last for much longer....Unrigged
And perhaps also explains why most of the world wants to get rid of the Dollar? This is Finacial warfare pure and simple. But, at the end of the day, "He who pays the piper calls the tune"?
We'll see who has the longer tail. US, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, or Saudi Arabia.
My guess is that ultimately the US has the longest tail, since it's government's survival does not rest on high oil prices, Saudi next since they have large reserves, low costs (but not as low as the propagandists make out) and some built up FX to burn, Russia next since they are so tough-- according to the many Okhrana propagandists flittering around here, then Nigeria and then Venezuela.
But only one has to crumble before the price goes back up.
All producers will be damaged. All consumers will benefit.
Which one of these five nations has the best consumer/producer ratio, hmmm?
Shale oil industry is 90$ break even ? If yes, expect massive default, just listened a French economist saying that the debt of the shale oil industry is about 500B $.
Ah, so there are still folks at ZH listing to economists...
Defend away...its not a river in Egypt...
You know, i always wondered, why do people say denial is not a river in Egypt rather then Africa? Fioid for thought. Oh and Fuck you Bernanke!
Not enough reserves to defend. They are committing suicide. Kind of hard to watch.
Exactly.
This crap is always good money after bad. They have to raise rates, or throw in the towel.
The dollar just hit a 5.5 year high...
US government contract for ambulance transport of Ebola and highly infectious disease patients?
Iraq denies Lebanon captured wife of ISIS Leader Baghdadi despite daughter’s positive DNA test
France parliament votes in support of recognizing Palestine, Israel says peace process will suffer
doesnt chart 1 strongly imply that the oil smashes were designed to kill putin?
"Civil War"
- GnR
Look at your young men fighting
Look at your women crying
Look at your young men dying
The way they've always done before
Look at the hate we're breeding
Look at the fear we're feeding
Look at the lives we're leading
The way we've always done before
My hands are tied
The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of God and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can't deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars
D'you wear a black armband
When they shot the man
Who said "peace could last forever"
And in my first memories
They shot Kennedy
I went numb when I learned to see
So I never fell for Vietnam
We got the wall of D.C. to remind us all
That you can't trust freedom
When it's not in your hands
When everybody's fightin'
For their promised land
And
I don't need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your civil war
Ow, oh no, no, no, no, no
Look at the shoes you're filling
Look at the blood we're spilling
Look at the world we're killing
The way we've always done before
Look in the doubt we've wallowed
Look at the leaders we've followed
Look at the lies we've swallowed
And I don't want to hear no more
My hands are tied
For all I've seen has changed my mind
But still the wars go on as the years go by
With no love of God or human rights
'Cause all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody hands of the hypnotized
Who carry the cross of homicide
And history bears the scars of our civil wars
I don't need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your civil war
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no
I don't need your civil war
I don't need your civil war
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your civil war
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no uh-oh-uh, no uh-oh, uh no
I don't need one more war
I don't need one more war
No, no, no, no uh-oh-uh, no uh-oh, uh no
Whaz so civil 'bout war anyway?
It turned out that call for Peace is not only moral imperative but as those mofos showed for last 15 years it is only sound economic policy.
A quote from working class hero John Lennon: "What we are saying, Let's give peace a chance" () following by quote from never scared Bone Crusher: "let's kill them all". We need no actors but artists in politics.
Economic warfare. Check.
What comes next, boys and girls?
The main event.
it would be quite the shame if something happened to the Saudi fields...
What do you think IS is for... They are being armed at an incredible rate.
Utter collapse of Russia like in the 1980's?
Russia is budgeting for a $40 / barrel oil price.
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/moscow-blog-russia-prepares-40-oil
WHy doesn't Russia dump all of their US treasuries? They aren't getting shit for them anyway. Take the proceeds and buy more gold and back the ruble with gold. Problem solved.
In time. They are using USD forex to dump on local development and paying off loans due to devaluation. They are increasing gold reserves.
Lastest figures from rosstat is showing that even if inflation is rising (9.7%), the government made a massive surplus. Now it is up to the government to use this properly.
What is really hurting Russia is CB methods. CB is a neoliberal organization and they have done more harm than good. As well, they own 51% of sberbank which is illegal technically, and Sberbank holds most to all of the $420B forex. So they are doing as they please with it, without Putins consent. Hence why the government has plenty of venture funds, to bypass the high interest rate loans for companies eligable.
In the end, they need to control ibterest rates much better and deal with inflation more appropriately. Devaluation of the ruble was predicted. It just happened so fast. There are pros and cons to the devaluation, but the average person will have to bear the brunt of it. Thankfully prices of products in Russia are still not bearly as high as it is here. Just on average, more expensuve by 9.7%. Only way around this is import substitution and imports in domestic currencies in other currencies (ruble to yuan as example).
India faced massive devaluation and high inflation (11% in 2011 and 9% following years till this year) with rupee dropping value a lot, yet they still managed to survive.
What is the ruble being devalued against? It's the USDRUB. The problem isn't in the ruble or its interest rate. The problem is toilet paper is still being used as a world reserve currency and reference point. I believe they are trying to move away from a Keynesian mindset. It will take time, the question is how much longer.
Sell them to who?
sell to Belgium of course
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt
Because the face value of the bonds is climbing and the USD they contain is also on the rise.
Here are the words of Paul Christie:
"... It was necessary to create a situation in Europe to the Europeans themselves have refused to energy cooperation with Russia and other energy suppliers and tied to its economic interest in energy supplies from the United States."
http://en.cyplive.com/ru/news/amerikanskaya-strategiya-spaseniya-dollara...
What a mind job done on americans believing that Russian economy is about to collapse and Putin soon starts begging. Probably witches of Bloomberg did it mysteriously but it could be discounted detergent for american brain washing.
Russian cities, in WWII were under siege, by Germans and Fins for up to 900 days without food or clean water supplies and they would rather eat least rat in the city than surrender. Total 1.5 milion proudly starved or froze to death in Leningrad (St.Petersburg) alone.
So far, after crushing sanctions, they drinking shampaigne, complaining about prices of coconuts.
This rigged FX means nothing in dollar free zone and only finally encourage russians to diversify their own industry, since so far they did not have to due to gas and oil.
Reasons above didn't help the Ruble in the late 1990's when it hit 5,000 plus Rubles to the dollar.
1998 was a special mess. I remember it vaugly but the government were on their hands and knees, while oligarches had everything and average folk were paid roughly $100 - $180 a month. Add to that, majority of soviet era machine plants where already stripped of their assets and many institutions were purged. In the end, all Russia had were factories that could barely produce, oil and gas fields, and very little agriculture production thanks to Soviet Union. So a devalued ruble was a nightmare as most to everything was imported and no money was available to assist the local industries. In around 1999 things changed a bit as the local industries were getting more orders in hopes they would use the finances to improve manufacturing, which many did (construction and agriculture equipment to be specific) as these two were major imports for soviet union prior and they couldnt afford to import these anymore. So industrial production as well as industrial profuts were quite high and was a better year for manufacturing (add in cheap resources to the mix and how over abundant it is in Russia made production cheaper). Fast forward to 2004, and things were semi changing again. Oil prices going up due to wars and rebuilding many enterprises in Russia. Many new organizations appeared to consolidate the various industries that were government owned and any excess were sold off (mind you, that created problems later, like Bashneft as an example). Now I am not saying everything was honky dory. Instead though, there was quite a bit of money flowing through the system and new production was starting and many industries were starting to expand. But, there was (and still is today), inefficiency among many of these big enterprises as many of them still have their soviet and 90's legacy. They as well still follow same trend that more or less got them out of trouble in late 90's.
Oil being so profitable, people just got greedy. But ultimately, a lot of that money is being used to improve currently run domestic industries, to help buold new ones, and infrastructure development. Because, there is a rising fear of the 90's repeating again so they are working to prevent that. But so much has changed since 90's, its impossible. Russian gdp in 98 was $190B, now it is over $2T. So far, from Jan - Oct there was a 0.7% gdp increase. Next year, there is anywhere between 0.8% increase or 0.8% decrease in GDP. That is nothing compared to 2008 with a decrease of 9% and nowhere near 1998 levels. But I am glad Russians are preparing themselves as this prevention preparing can possibly prevent altogether an issue.
The fight right now is at CB. Galyzev has openly condemned CBR and there is still constant talk about making CBR Russian again. This is where the first step to be in order to gain control over your own economy. Dont know why the people who are in charge of a nations currency as well as inflation rate and interest rate, isnt nationalized.
That said. Devaluatuon of the ruble isnt the problem. Ruble has been hit one of, if not the hardest, but it is not the only one. This in turn is a benefit to local producers. Real issue is the inflation and interest rates. That is something CB should be doing to fix and therr are other methods to fixing this than currency value.
Thanks for the good comment, explaining clearly without hysterics.
You Okhrana dudes keep harping on the siege of Leningrad and how tough the Russian people were some 70 years ago. Well, while you were fighting a one front war against half of Germany's strength, America and Britain were fighting a global war across the rest of the planet. You think Leningraders were any tougher than Londoners under the Blitz? Or Americans caught behind Japanese lines?
You think modern day Russians would put up with that sort of cynical sacrifice of their lives for the greater glory of the State? Americans wouldn't because we are a different people than we were 70 years ago and the same is true of the Russians.
If it weren't true of the Russians, we would still be calling you the Soviets, wouldn't we?
But you guys had a bellyfull of sacrifice for the glory of the State and said fukkitall. Now you are just like everyone else, so put a sock in that old shibboleth about how tough you used to be.
That's why Russia is diversified
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/australian-tigers-realm-says-thier-coking-coal-mine-in-russia-up-and-running-in-2015/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/russia-and-vietnam-enter-onshore-gas-collaberation/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/finlands-fortum-increases-energy-ties-with-russia-increases-stake-in-tgc-1/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/12/02/finlands-slush-it-event-more-than-50-russia-n-start-ups-attended/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/02/tek-russias-new-startup-city-comes-to-silicon-valley-to-recruit/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/29/california-startup-launches-jet-service-with-russias-imperious-group/
so much more....http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com
At least Bruce Wild's relentless blog ads put the figleaf up over the paperhanging. He re-posts old reposts of misspelled post snippets. You just throw a headline up, and get to business.
Nice to see the Tylers spreading their legs like this. Gives me a woody.
To give you an idea of how stupid and idiotic Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada is for visiting the Ukraine and supporting an American led overthrow of a legitimate government,he's going to sacrifice his own Province of Alberta on the alter.Most of Canada's tax revenues come from Western Canada and that's where the majority of oil comes from.They want to take a shot at Russia and he he didnt even care about his own home or his own country.Property values are already falling in Calgary and Edmonton and the Premier of Alberta just warned of big cutbacks if oil stays where it is.The Alberta Premier who served under Harper previously is now on a cross country mission in a last act of desperation to try to get other Provincial Premiers to sign on to pipeline agreements in order to get more oil out.That should show you the utter contempt that a moron like Harper has for even his own people.All to kiss State Department neo nazi ass.Victoria Nuland,head wench.Ottawa's tax revenues and its western economy are going to go to shit shortly.
The big cutbacks will be in wellfare..like last time.
harper works for the ziobankers. he follows instructions. he has no interest in canada. trudeau will be the same.