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China’s Economy Surpassed U.S. … a Long Time Ago

George Washington's picture




 

This is what's above the fold on Drudge right now:

(click to see the full image.)

Drudge links to a MarketWatch article stating:

We’re no longer No. 1. Today, we’re No. 2. Yes, it’s official. The Chinese economy just overtook the United States economy to become the largest in the world. For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is not the leading economic power on the planet.

 

It just happened — and almost nobody noticed.

 

The International Monetary Fund recently released the latest numbers for the world economy. And when you measure national economic output in “real” terms of goods and services, China will this year produce $17.6 trillion — compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A.

 

***

 

To put the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of the global economy when measured in real purchasing-power terms, compared with 16.3% for the U.S.

 

***

 

These calculations are based on a well-established and widely used economic measure known as purchasing-power parity (or PPP), which measures the actual output as opposed to fluctuations in exchange rates. So a Starbucks venti Frappucino served in Beijing counts the same as a venti Frappucino served in Minneapolis, regardless of what happens to be going on among foreign-exchange traders.

 

PPP is the real way of comparing economies. It is one reported by the IMF and was, for example, the one used by McKinsey & Co. consultants back in the 1990s when they undertook a study of economic productivity on behalf of the British government.

 

Yes, when you look at mere international exchange rates, the U.S. economy remains bigger than that of China, allegedly by almost 70%. But such measures, although they are widely followed, are largely meaningless. Does the U.S. economy really shrink if the dollar falls 10% on international currency markets? Does the recent plunge in the yen mean the Japanese economy is vanishing before our eyes?

We reported in 2012 that China might have already surpassed the U.S. in terms of PPP as of 2010.  The same year, China became the world’s largest trader. And in October, we noted that China had officially surpassed America in PPP … citing the same numbers that Marketwatch cited today.

Indeed, the Chief of the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF Research Department (Tim Callen) wrote in 2007:

Who contributes more to global growth, China or the United States? Using PPP it’s China. But using market rates, the United States wins out (see chart).

Who contributed most to global growth?

Notice that he’s using September 2006 numbers.  So China arguably surpassed the U.S. under at least some measures more than 8 years ago.

 

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Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:55 | 5520129 Reaper
Reaper's picture

All government GDP statistics are lies. Obama will demand his affirmative acceptance as a Mandarin and then correct the Chinese statistics.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:24 | 5519982 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

China values tradition, gold,...and for now anyways...Capitalism.

 

Good for China.

 

Shame on the USA.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:02 | 5519933 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

And until we can fill the Mississippi with floating dead pigs, we'll stay #2.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:12 | 5519847 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture
Obama says China's Xi has consolidated power quickly, worrying neighbors

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/04/us-usa-china-obama-idUSKCN0JH2...

 

"There are dangers in that. On issues of human rights, on issues of clamping down on dissent. He taps into a nationalism that worries his neighbors," Obama said, noting maritime disputes in the region.

 

-------------

Yep, He really said that...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:16 | 5519961 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Was he talking to a mirror?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 07:26 | 5519786 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

But if we are buying their cheap toxic shit, doesn't that still make us #1 idiots?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 06:40 | 5519745 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

Cold War 2.0 : China's moves to avoid dangerous isolation

http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/09/cold-war-20-chinas-moves-to-a...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 04:44 | 5519669 Flybyknight
Flybyknight's picture

Hey is it that important who is top dog in terms of GDP. Quality of life  is the important thing and with over a billion people clamoring for their little slice of pie China is always going to find it difficult to keep everyone happy. The US on the other hand can provide bread and circuses for the proles(useless eaters) without much difficulty while keeeping the real wealth for the 1%ers.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 05:10 | 5519683 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

only for as long as the US can offload debt onto unsuspecting fools... and those are fewer and fewer these days

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 04:02 | 5519642 aleph0
aleph0's picture

PPP ? .... a little like the Big-Mac-Index.

Just shows you how the Banksters and Politicians f*** around with Currencies ( illusions )

PPP would be GDP if  FX was real ... like Gold backing.

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 03:32 | 5519620 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Well its still ok to build stuff in China for starters. Back in 1969 we built Camaro SS big block bad ass cars right down the street. Over in Burbank we built the SR71 Black bird. Good movies at the studios. More machine shops than any place on earth. All right in the LA area. We built good stuff. Year round right on the coast with complete modern infrastructue stop lights an everything.  

 

 

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 03:45 | 5519628 varnelius
varnelius's picture

Wow. Are you high?

I understand that China has their "ghost cities" issue. But should the BRICS stop trading oil in Fed notes... We drop that 70%. Overnight.

If you think $50 oil will break things, this definitely will.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 04:54 | 5519676 disgruntled hou...
disgruntled housewife's picture

China and Russia and Iran all have deals bypassing petro dollar. Brazil I believe byassing dollar in trade deals with China- not sure about ethanol or oil.

On a side note don't you think we went into Iraq due to Saddam selling oil for euros and killed Ghadaffi for creating gold dinar that he intended to use for oil trade.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 05:17 | 5519687 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Like they are setting the table for a global fiat of thier choosing?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 04:51 | 5519673 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Na just pissed off. Such a waste.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 03:18 | 5519602 Livermore Legend
Livermore Legend's picture

Per Capita:   1 American = 12 Chinese

For China just to EQUAL the US in Productivity they would effectively have to become the Entire World Economy solo.

Mathematics, Not Rhetoric or Opinion.

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 03:50 | 5519633 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Have you been in USA schools lately and seen these kids.  Sorry to burst your math equation but 1 Chinese actually equals 12 Americans.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 03:00 | 5519584 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

UN PPP bullshit. Be interesting to see how they use currency fluctuations between two countries whose currencies are essentially linked together to manufacture a 42% jump in China over nominal GDP terms.

Plus, China is peaking and about to level off as the population bomb lights off, her real estate bubble goes Chernobyl,she runs out of people to sell to overseas, and everyone who can get their money out the door is heading for the Departure Gate at the nearest International Airport.

US will be rid of Obama eventually and then we will see who the boss really is.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 01:59 | 5519517 joego1
joego1's picture

More Ohopium from Obolarang

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 01:24 | 5519448 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

P.S. The figures don't include Macao, Hong Kong or Taiwan.

Any and all Mainland Chinese would insist they are part of China, and thus should be added to the total.

When that is done you get this:

2012 (Note the year)

14,774.38 PRC

937.093 Taiwan

366.136 HK

86.00 Macao

16,163.60 Grand Total China

16,163.15 USA

That was 2012.

2014?

USA 17,416.25

Greater China 19,140.23

This gap will only grow unless something truly catastrophic occurs, much worse than 2008.

2019

USA 22,147.84

Greater China 28,869.93

Nominal is slated for any year between 2016 and 2022.

This has, more or less, happened (past tense). Time to update your mindset.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:58 | 5519407 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Whether this happened in 2010, 2014, 2016 or 2022 is a minor point.

We are in the window where China>USA and it's just a matter of a few months before all can say with certainty.

The Chinese will never admit to it, because they have a deep seated need to play the victim and lose.

They will plead poverty right up until they are invading.

""We are so sorry. There are so many of us, we have so little and we need so much. You are rich, we are poor...""

They will think like that, say that, repeat it to each other, on the news and to you, for decades to come. 

Decades.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:30 | 5519316 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Interesting lens on the economic data.  While the Chinese data has been suspect, the disparity is hard to explain away in its entirety.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:30 | 5519314 Spungo
Spungo's picture

None of the government numbers can be trusted. The US numbers are bullshit and the Chinese ones are worse.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 05:09 | 5519679 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Yes, so go to China and look around.

When you get to Tier 3, 4, 5 cities you see many new cars, lots of construction, many people moving into those hi-rises, building out 3 br apartments, everyone has a smartphone, computer, and big TV in the living room. Half of all households now have a car in rural ''poor'' areas. 22mn autos sold each year, growing each year, 6 years, 132mn autos, 275mn households. Yes, 4/5 people per household, mother in law and auntie move in.

Just looking around even rural cities the GDP of the country appears to be 15k-20k, and the big cities whose names you know are far higher.

Look at everyone traveling internally, then look at the tens of millions going to Paris, etc. Look at those figures growing each year.

Thus the PPP figures make sense and are an accurate proxy.

Won't even go into the better-than-USA skyscrapers and high speed rail.

USA, EU and China all have comparably sized economies as of 2014, China soon to outpace both. 

Lots of issues? Of course...but the economy here is as suggested by the PPP.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:28 | 5519304 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

I must admit I was scratching my head a bit back in 1981 when I graduated from HS. 

 

...sending those dirty manufacturing jobs overseas.  Yup, makes perfect sense now.  Not.

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 23:43 | 5519183 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Big question is -- who cares?  In PPP calculations, where all burger flippers are the same, the Chinese will always have a bigger economy because they have 3x more burger flippers.  I'm not planning to lose any sleep because of that.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:55 | 5519389 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Economic activity allows for leverage in military and other areas.

If my economy is twice yours, then I can spend a smaller percent on guns and you have to spend a larger slice of your economy to match it.

Remember how the USA spent the FSU into the past tense with its larger economy?

Same thing except the USA is slated for demolition, not the FSU. 

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 23:33 | 5519150 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Actually, my back of the envelope computations, and expectations for when the dollar finally goes supernova and then collapses, is that the DC US is poorer than Mexico.

I also believe that this latest strong dollar move is really a ploy to max out the value of the loot now fleeing the DC US. The Zionists are fleeing, and the Chinese are coming.

The author of the below is not really known, but in any case, they knew exactly what they were talking about, as this quote highlights the DC US' and American people's future succinctly:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

The American, people just have know idea.

 

I won't go without a fight or justice being done.

 

Sat, 12/06/2014 - 23:40 | 5525137 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

the DC US is poorer than Mexico.

 

Excellent point. Except for Ward 3 and the upscale condos in SW and the gold coast.

Anacostia, any place east of 16th Street (mostly) even parts of NW west of N. Capital have some run down areas.

This is balanced by all of the Reno Road commuters who work MSM and earn 800k.

It's been going on 2 decades since I was in DC. I checked my old apartment.

I rented it $525, it now rents for $2,500+. It's still the same 500 sq foot place.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:29 | 5520008 sleigher
sleigher's picture

We already are homeless on the land our fathers conquered.  If one cannot own land then that is homeless to me.  We have been here for a long time.  

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 23:08 | 5519057 bitterwolf
bitterwolf's picture

Who the fuck does not read Drudge...little pressed on material..

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 20:36 | 5518584 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

never had to happen, good for china, but we americans got butt fucked by our own rulers for 30 pieces of silver.

of course most of these rulers have life time SS protection, and off shore homes and ranches..some founder said the only way we would be brought down is from within by traitors a word which now has no meaning but it might ryme with amnesty for illegals from other countries. too bad there is no amnesty for you john q public or some black man selling cigs or walking in furguson..for them death.

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 23:35 | 5519156 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"americans got butt fucked by our own rulers for 30 pieces of silver."

Ultimately, steel and lead can, and will, trump their silver.

An American, not US subject.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:10 | 5519251 RECISION
RECISION's picture

How about nuclear fusion...

What trumps that???

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 20:27 | 5518569 failsafe
failsafe's picture

they sur[ass us while we are busy chasing our tails and selling them everything we own, including our actual country (i.e., land).

Thu, 12/04/2014 - 23:25 | 5519130 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"they sur[ass us while we are busy chasing our tails and selling them everything we own, including our actual country (i.e., land)."

 

We still produce some of he finest porn on the planet.    Tangible goods?   Not so much.  

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 00:10 | 5519246 Fred123
Fred123's picture

Asian porn is far better and they are getting better at producing quality products because they have to. They know it and are doing something about it. Meanwhile, we have $hit politicians who are cowards and will not do what is necessary to restore our country. There is a rope for them at the end of the line.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 11:00 | 5520420 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Japanese porn is bit rubbish though, what with all the blurry genitals.  Might as well look at postcards from Abu Gharib.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 01:33 | 5519476 palmdetroit
palmdetroit's picture

Wasn't China #1 before.. a few times like b4 Merica

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