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What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Number

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here is the bogey for today's NFP number, which consensus expects will print at +230K (on a +300K whisper number), leading to a 5.8% unemployment rate, as some 93+ million Americans - driven by millions of Millennials - continue to languish outside of the labor force.

  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Goldman Sachs 220K
  • Citigroup 225K
  • HSBC 230K
  • UBS 230K
  • Credit Suisse 235K
  • Morgan Stanley 235K
  • Deutsche Bank 250K

The full preview of today's NFP report courtesy of RanSquawk:

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) M/M Exp. 230K (Low 140K, High 306K), Prev. 214K, Sep 256K
  • US Unemployment Rate (Nov) M/M Exp. 5.8% (Low 5.6%, High 5.9%), Prev. 5.8%, Sep 5.9%
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Nov) M/M Exp. 0.2% (Low 0.2%, High 0.4%), Prev. 0.1%, Sep 0.0%

Friday’s NFP report is again expected to show strong growth with most analysts expecting the US to have created over 200K jobs during November. Recent employment data has supported expectations of strong growth, although the weekly jobless data has showed some sign of cooling heading into the holiday period. Throughout November, more Americans had filed applications for unemployment benefits and Initial Jobless Claims crept back above 300K, however Thursday’s reading decreased below 300K again and the 4-week average remains near its lowest levels since 2000. This week’s ADP employment report came in marginally below expectations but the trend of strong employment gains continued with the number at 208K. Other employment indicators have been positive with the employment component in the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing readings both firmly above the key 50 threshold, despite falling from the previous month.

As has been the case recently, focus could fall on the wage component of the report with the current labour market picture being one of strong payroll gains but slow wage growth. Some Fed officials have stated that they want to see a pick-up in wages before they hike rates but at their most recent meeting they said the underutilisation of labour resources was gradually diminishing. However, this reading is unlikely to have too much of an impact on Fed policy, particularly in the near term, with most Fed officials more concerned about inflation continuing to remain below target, rather than the labour market, which continues to improve.

Market Reaction

Due to the numerous data points contained within the report, the fast money moves often don’t hold but a headline reading above the median expectation of 230K will likely support equity markets and the USD, and weigh on Treasuries with the curve flattening in the immediate aftermath. However, the S&P 500 and DJIA still trade at or around record highs so scope for large upside could be limited. Despite the selling seen yesterday, the USD also trades near multi-year highs as the US economy has shown a more resolute recovery than other global economies with Europe and Japan both lagging. As mentioned, this report is not expected to have a major impact on when the Fed will hike rates with markets currently pricing in the first hike at the meeting in September 2015.

 

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Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:45 | 5519901 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

SQUID PUPPETS -600K

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:49 | 5519910 Frolf
Frolf's picture

Vampire blood funnel corn holers 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:58 | 5519925 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Scattered skys.....chance of fraud.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:09 | 5519931 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Official TruthInSunshine NFP Estimate:

222,000 new jobs (90% of which will be retail clerks, waitresses & bartenders - i.e. "seasonal"), to be revised downward to 178,000 next month.

Official UE Rate of 5.8% (unchanged); Actual = 15.1% with Actual U6 of 23%

p.s. Record store closings and retailer bankruptcies post-Santa Clause

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:32 | 5520016 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Frolf, I thought your comments on the Garner protests in NYC article were pretty much spot on. You know you're close to hitting at truth when you've got greater than 100 downvotes for one or more of your comments.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:49 | 5519911 Frolf
Frolf's picture

.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:48 | 5519912 Frolf
Frolf's picture

.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:10 | 5519952 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

 

 

 

 

Da Numbers are all just

 

        FUBAR

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:45 | 5519902 pitchforksanonymous
pitchforksanonymous's picture

This is how they'll decide the number.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

 

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:06 | 5520176 Bopper09
Bopper09's picture

Funny thing is that South Park is the only way I got news before I found sites like this one.  They're always bang on with what's really happening, and how sheeple act accordingly.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:46 | 5519906 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

Can't speak to what WS expects but for me I would be pleasantly surprised if it was a giant bag of bullshit and lies....

 

oh wait that's what I got for Christmas last year....... but then it is the gift that keeps on giving the whole year long........ right

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:47 | 5519909 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture
  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Goldman Sachs 220K
  • Citigroup 225K
  • HSBC 230K
  • UBS 230K
  • Credit Suisse 235K
  • Morgan Stanley 235K
  • Deutsche Bank 250K

Are those the average BONUSSES for Christmass they'll give to their managers?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:56 | 5519918 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Yes, but times 100.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:03 | 5519935 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

nice sarcasm but when it comes to thier bonuses it is in the millions and that is not funny

 

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:52 | 5519916 youngman
youngman's picture

Its funny but these bank economists have to try to figure out the number without the politics involved...but the BLM uses politics all the time...seasonally adjusted is just politics getting involved...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:55 | 5519920 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Figures set by them all way too low. Only to make it possible to "beat exp"

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 08:58 | 5519924 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture
  • Thatthingcanfly 3

Yep, 3 jobs added. That's my projection.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:07 | 5519946 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The difficult part for them is pretenting it matters.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:08 | 5519948 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

'Shock miss', just like last time?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:18 | 5519964 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They'd never expect it again.

 

Hell yeah.....let's do it!

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:03 | 5520163 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Or maybe not.  It's a good job I don't play NFP roulette...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:21 | 5519967 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Meanwhile, November 2013 was 274k.

 

It should be 89k, if the numbers were to be moving towards honest results based on what creates the jobs in the first place:Real year over year profit growth.

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:28 | 5519994 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

How about a surprise to the downside abysmal 135k print combined with "king dollar is getting too strong" meme as well as "we are worried about deflation due to oil prices"? That would put us right on track towards Quince Edward FOREVER!!!

Currency war endgame...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:36 | 5520024 ArtOfLife
ArtOfLife's picture
321K jobs added in November, biggest job gain since 2012 
Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:39 | 5520038 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Rate of profit growth is down, so everyone's hiring.

Sure, I believe thet....

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:54 | 5520120 RyeWhiskey
RyeWhiskey's picture

All bull...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:15 | 5520226 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

When even the best estimate is off by 30%, perhaps these guys should stop playing the forecasting game.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:26 | 5520274 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Job market churn

 

Job market burn.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:34 | 5520303 _SILENCER
_SILENCER's picture

A scalp needs to be taken in the war for freedom.

How do you hit the dragon where it lives, wound it immeasurably, and send a message to the rest of the coven? The whistleblowers are taken out by sloppy Russian Mob assassins with nailguns. The whisleblowers are tossed off buildings by our for hire robots at Langley.

Do we black bag the bankers and post their capture video to the net? Do we drag them into  a kangraoo court and horizontalize them for crimes against Liberty?

Or do we reject our serfdom,  no longer participate in their stock market ponzi, credit card gulag, checking and savings account idiocy, 401k delusion, establishment medical prison?

Probably all of the above.

 

 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 11:59 | 5520649 Gawd
Gawd's picture

Apparently Wall Sreet randomly pulls numbers out of their collective asses. How do these fuckers get jobs and why don't I have one?

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