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Is This The Mystery Crude Oil Liquidator? The "God Of Crude Oil Trading" Taps Out
Two months ago, when the first tremors in the crude market appeared, we wondered, jokingly, if one of the biggest crude bulls -the man known as the "god of oil trading - Phibro's (and formerly Citi's uber-well paid trader) Andy Hall was puking blood yet.
Any crude BWICs from Andy Hall yet?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2014
But while we may have been joking, for Andy Hall things were only all too real. So real, in fact, he just lost his job according to Bloomberg.
- OIL TRADER ANDREW HALL SAID TO LEAVE PHIBRO BY YR-END: SOURCES
So is Hall's unwind the source of what some say is a relentless, rolling liquidation within the commodity space?
What is surprising, is that until September, Hall's Astenbeck wasn't doing too badly as the following letter shows:
What is perhaps more ironic, is that Hall actually thought shale would be a dud, and that we are beyond the peak-shale era, which would send crude prices higher. Well, he may have been correct about the fate of shale oil, but not how it would get there, considering he himself would be one of the casualties in the process.
More ironic, the following blurb from Bloomberg: "Andrew John Hall -- known as the God of Crude Oil Trading to some of his peers -- has built his success on a simple creed: Everyone who disagrees with him is wrong.
For most of the past 30 years, that has been a killer strategy. Like a poker player on an endless hot streak, Hall has made billions for the companies for which he’s traded by placing one aggressive bet after another. He was one of the few traders who anticipated both the run-up in and the eventual crash of oil prices in 2008.
Hall was so good that he bagged a $98 million payday in 2008, when he ran Citigroup Inc.’s Phibro LLC trading unit, and was up for about $100 million more in 2009.
In the end, Bloomberg Markets will report in its October 2014 issue, he couldn’t collect the 2009 payout from Citi because an anti–Wall Street backlash against the bank -- which had just received a $45 billion U.S. government bailout -- led regulators to block it. No such bonuses have awaited Hall of late. He’s racked up losses in two of the past three years.
His wager that oil prices would rise and rise has run headlong into an unanticipated energy revolution -- the frenetic push in the U.S. and elsewhere to wring crude out of shale. Shale drilling has boosted U.S. oil output to the highest level in 27 years; it helped the U.S. supply 84 percent of its energy demand last year. Oil prices, far from taking the upward trajectory Hall predicted, have been essentially unchanged since 2011.
For the 63-year-old Hall, who has used his wealth to build an extensive modern art collection, this has meant a sobering comedown. Assets under management at his Astenbeck Capital Management LLC hedge-fund firm fell to $3.4 billion in May, down from as much as $4.8 billion in January 2013. Astenbeck, based in Westport, Connecticut, fell 3.8 percent in 2011, posted a 3.4 percent gain in 2012 and slid another 8.3 percent in 2013, according to Astenbeck letters obtained by Bloomberg. This makes some wonder whether Hall has lost his touch.
“At one point, Phibro traders were the rulers of the world,” says Carl Larry, a former trader who publishes a newsletter on oil markets. “The best always learn how to adapt. Maybe it’s taking him longer to do that now. Or maybe his time has come.”
The punchline: "Hall, based on comments in his letters to investors, is unfazed by the losses and secure in his view that the price of oil is destined to rise. In those letters, he regularly mocks those who are convinced that a shale boom will mean long-term cheap, abundant energy."
Oops.
As for the $64K question: has he liquidated his long positions yet, or is he yet to liquidate them? Considering the bankruptcy fate of Venezuela may well lie in the answer, we are confident we are not the only ones curious.
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Oil under 40
Oil over 40
years end poll
OT - (apologies) - but arson is suspected in LA Apartments under construction fire yesterday (Jewish Lightning).
"Arson Eyed in Massive Los Angeles Apartment Blaze"
LOS ANGELES — Dec 9, 2014, 10:33 AM ET
By CHRISTOPHER WEBER Associated Press
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/investigators-arson-la-apartment-fire...
As for oil, good luck trading it or anything else in this TOTALLY FUBAR'D AND DEVOID OF FUNDAMENTALS WORLD THANKS TO ASININE CENTRAL BANK RADICAL MONETARY FRANKENSTEIN-ZATION OF "MARKETS."
My first blush about that fire was it marked the top in CA RE as someone (with knowledge of the market direction) torched the son of a bitch rather than build it and lose their ass.
Anyone in the oil business for any length of time completely recognizes and expects this boom/bust cycle with price. In fact, I knew a guy who quit his job up here to go south to live with family and get a CDL so he could drive rigs in the Dakotas. I told him it was going to roll over at some point and he better save his cash rather than piss it away ... don't think he got very far.
Regards,
Cooter
who builds industrial housing out of wood these days?
Talk about irony. It is a block up from The Department of Building and Safety.
a block up from The Department of Building and Safety...
and across the street from the fire house. These factors were most likely taken into account in providing extraordinarily reasonable construction insurance rates. Double plus good.
I'll just bet this guy believed in and promoted the concept of Peak Oil. It gave him and his fellow traders a good 40 year run and then ..... WHAMO BLAMO RIGHT UP THE POOP CHUTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Putin Has Invited Him To A Nail-Gun Exposition In Moscow...
They use snow plows in Russia.
Regards,
Cooter
amaranthed
You might very well be right!
Regards,
Cooter
It wont be ther last one I suspect! America is entering the final era or phase of Kenyesian lunatic behavior, which will be rife with economic boycotts and protests, etc
The bottom 80% is coming awake to a few of their realities and they will strike back however they can, however misguided and futile, and the one that will resonate the loudest, will be this idea of boycotting the corporations and wall street, starve them out so to speak, I hear it randomily among the "police protest" all ready, and it will get louder as the suffering increases!
Econimic warfare essentially!
Cue the insurance companies bankruptsies. Will they save AIG again? But of course!!! Along with Hancock etc...
F- the little people, save the corporations that "vote".
Former coworker of mine did the same thing. She left a VERY good, stable company after 20+ years, with bennies up the wazoo so she could be the safety person for her neighbors trucking company which currently does nothing else but North Dakota runs, oil related. This guy is known as one of the town clowns, but she wanted a change. Methinks she will get it allright. Last I heard she was already sick of the drives every other week from her home that is five hours south. Seems that some folks are getting the oil fever and just packing up to head north. I think reality bites them in the ass once they see what a harsh climate it can be at times up there.
We just had our quarterly safety meeting. Our safety guy also has this building. He was late had a hard time getting away. Said their are at least a dozen AFT agents their and general consensus is arson. The builder is one of his best customers never stopped building even through the down turn.
Jewish Lightning?
More like Mexican Relámpago. This is what happens when a contractor hires illegal labor to frame a city block-sized human habitrail and figures he can stiff them, because hey, they're illegal.
Unfortunately there was some collateral damage to some surrounding properties.
Is there blood in the streets yet?
Where have you been?
What's your poison tnight, WB7?
... the cop that maced himself has a little bloody booger. "The Street" is still selling the Strength of the US Economic Story and the FEd is buying it with both Bazookas.
Whiplash a-comin'. Broken muppet necks.
Gold under 2000
Gold over 2000
my personal year end poll
nothing else matters anymore
get ready amigos
Gold under 1400
Gold over 1400
Out of hopium. Color me sceptical.
I'd have to know when the defaults by the frackers are going to start coming, then know how that is going to reverberate throughout the entire financial system to make that call. The defaults could sparke a wave of deflation, crushing gold further before the Fed steps in and prints more, and this could start well into 2015. It's too complex to tell how it will play out and it's also too complex to time properly. The only thing that we can say for sure is "This won't end well." The question is, will it end in 2015? 2016? 2017? No matter the date, end well, it will not.
"The defaults could sparke a wave of deflation, crushing gold further before the Fed steps in and prints more, and this could start well into 2015."
Oh please let that be a scenario so that I can buy before it all goes to hell.
True price discovery is so entertaining. Wait till the sheep wake up one morning and Gold is, well you know.
Just wait till they wake up one day and find their 401k has been price discovered in half or more.
I don't even tell myself the retirement lie anymore. My strategy is scaling down so that I can work the hours I want to keep as I get older. I got a lady at my office who is 83 and still goes to her office job 5 days a week. I bet she is happier interacting with all the people and issues of the day than sitting at home with a cat forgetting how to walk and live.
Regards,
Cooter
there are options other than working or sitting at home, of course money is required
Confiscated.
Maybe, but then the smart ones will have sold it before that happens....if it does go parabolic. I don't see them coming after the minnows that bought an ounce here or there. Then again are ones gold teeth even safe these days?
I wish my screen name was "Mystery Liquidator". Le sigh
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-mother-of-all-bank-runs
A good read. Thanks.
BOR, GREAT post. Thanks...
cudos Zero Hedge, good call.
"This Report has been furnished on a confidential basis solely for the information of the person to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, distributed or used for any other purposes."
Erm, Tyler....?
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.
Except for the stuff we automatically recorded using our high tech surveillance system which is coupled with facial matching software, specializing in adjusting to changes caused by age, for purposes of bribery in the future (when the lobby finally gets it passed).
Regards,
Cooter
This is Fight Club. We don't adhere to Non Disclosure Agreements.
Except for Fight Club. Because the first rule of Fight Club is..............
Information about Fight Club has been furnished on a confidential basis solely for the information of the person to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, distributed or used for any other purposes?
Fight Club......never heard of it.
Black eye ? Me? Oh yeah.....slipped while getting out of the shower. Speaking of shower......you gotta try this soap. Leaves your skin silky smooth.
all this amid the ECB today once again trying to jawbone markets including the reiteration that oil price is SUPPLY and NOT demand driven right now.....LOL are they dumb or just clever?
sounds like he made a big bet on ukraine blowing up. he is the fall guy. someone approved that trade even if he is the one who sold it to them. what did phibro know or think they knew and who followed this guy down the drain.
if anyone has reason to shoot themselves in the head with a nailgun..........
There has been mulitple posts that the Oil and Gas Independents have hedged their production so the bonds will continue to be paid for some time.
but who were on the other side of the trade that has the exposure for say $40/ Bbl.(100-60) ? would think Phibro had some of this risk but what other banks ?
also the Saudi's knew what they would do at the margin before everyone else did - so they probably massively hedged some time ago as Aramco as probably did the insiders in the kingdom
so who has this off balance sheet risk?
“At one point, Phibro traders were the rulers of the world,” says Carl Larry, a former trader who publishes a newsletter on oil markets. “The best always learn how to adapt. Maybe it’s taking him longer to do that now. Or maybe his time has come.”
yes...adapt to the new normal centrally controlled pricing mechanism, or become a "former trader" and write a newsletter and bash those that had the balls to ride the horse until it bucked em'
It almost sounds like you're saying "Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach or write newsletters".
Notice that in either case, doing or newsletters, they're always using OPM for their lifestyle.
Sadly, nobody could have predicted a Russian invasion, nor the subsequent moves at 1H13. I suspect he doubled down around 76 and blew up accordingly.
Nice guy, he will be replaced & missed.
Correction: Nobody predicted Pussia would retake Crimea during Winter Olympics in Sochi while Ukraine underwent orchestrated regime chenge in Kiev. Now Ukraine needs a new line of credit based on gold collateral already siezed. Putin could use a good oil trader, but not from Philbro
Supply and commodity price moves.
I've read about this relationship a time or two.
There must be massive losses around town!
GOOD RIDDANCE. As the mega banks are dislodged from the commodity space...amazing what happens.
order becomes chaos...it is a natural law of physics, indifferent to the will of humans.
Annie Hall lol !
Woody Allen was just as neurotic in that movie!
My favorite line (and one of my all-time Woody favorites) was when they were in Keaton's (Hall's) VW Beetle, the two are passionately discussing something, she abruptly drives into a NYC parking space on an angle, Allen opens the passenger door part-way, peers out, and says "That's OK, we can walk to the curb from here.".
In fact, I have used it myself many times over the years!
My favorite Woody line is "Sex isn't dirty, ...unless you do it right."
DP, sorry.
There is so much nonsense being spewed about shale. Do you actually think that oil men go out everyday and loose money? Of course not.
These guys know exactly what they are doing, and they are pumping oil and gas like never before. Will it run out? Of course it will run out! But not today.
The big picture is there are about 2 Trillion barrels of recoverable oil on the planet. We have drilled, pumped and burned half of that. The other half is going to be difficult and expensive. Gas is on a similar trajectory, only a couple of decades behind oil.
Shale has been phenoomenally successful. And as I siad, all the easy oil is gone or in ful production. There are no more Ghawars, massive deposits of light sweet crude, at shallow depth in rock that looks like a kitchen sponge. We are going to have to work for every new barrel, and that's what shale is: the future of the oil business. Is it cheap? No.
So at some point oil becomes so expensive, that other forms of energy will become viable. First gas, and as hat depletes then synthetic fuel from all kinds of sources: solar wind etc. If you make fuel instead of electricity, your storage problem is solved, and you gain total flexibility in where how and for what the energy is delivered. Shale is just a step on that long path.
If you genuinely look out a long timeline, Thorium MSRs are the only solution and that buys the current population of the planet a thousand years or so of power.
I will see global oil production drop by 50% from current levels before I die of old age. But that mess is down the road - this financialization mess is front and center.
Regards,
Cooter
I would love to see LFTRs become available, but the problem, as per usual, is that there's no money in the fuel or reactors - certainly not oil type money.
Please provide a link or briefly describe the concept of using solar and wind to create "synthetic fuel". Matter is neither created nor destroyed. I call bullshit...
it's a simple concept.
example, pulling hydrogen out of water as a fuel source, hydrogen is the H in H2O
it takes energy to separate it out, and once you have hydrogen you can run cars, etc, on it.
Please explain a simple way to store a useable amount of H2.
assholes like hall make money off other people's production. effing middle man parasite.
"Commoditization" is just a fancy term to denote that the real producers, farmers, manufacturers, AND end consumers (neat trick) will be forever cheated by a parasitic, blood sucking, do-nothing financial intermediary class such as Wall Street.
http://corporate.findlaw.com/finance/congress-passes-financial-services-...
The kind of big moves we have seen in huge markets like energy and currencies have got to take some players down. I doubt we've heard the last of it--maybe not much more than the first.
how is one supposed to plan ahead when maggots like hall purposely jack with prices? he isn't a producer, he isn't a consumer, he is just a scumbag who never gets his hands dirty.
Speculators like hall are essential for market stability. As long as they don't get bailed out or subsidized by others, and have to eat their losses when they fail, nobody should have a problem with it.
what business does that gambler have with "the oil market"? He is a fucking scumbag gambler and skimmer middleman who destabilizes prices for profit. when he wins he wins, when he loses, everybody loses.
what business does he have?
he puts his money in it, that's what!
and what business do you have, telling him what his business is?
thisson's comment above is absolutely right - if he's speculating on an outcome with his own money, and isn't going to get bailed out, that's his right.
who are you to tell him, or to tell anyone, that they don't have the right to make a contract with the person on the other end of that deal, on whether oil prices go up or down?
a private contract between two parties is between those two parties, aka, none of your damn business!
That is one nasty looking bald fuck....reminds me of the new NBA commissioner
just another OILY BASTARD !
Not to stir the cultural pot, but to add perspective on human nature... I admit that I'm surprised that it's and ANGLO who is the shady character this time, and not some Jewish or Zionist guy who is to blame.
So, in the spirit of equal opportunity... "Fucking Anglos, ruining the planet. Colonizing everything. Damn parasites and imperialists! Gas 'em! Nuke 'em!"
Did I go overboard with hyperbole and diatribe? Sorry. Too much of Monty Python, I guess.
Jesus fucking christ sits weeping. And the fucking Dog laughs on.
Listen, I've said it before so will say again, everything you've ever held dear is a lie,
The whole fucking lot. Your government is a fabrication based on lies and filth, your monetary system is a lie based on fabrication and slight of hand, to rob you fucking sideways till tuesday of all you ever owned. Your justice system is just that, Just-Us, not fucking you, based on lies and more made up fucking shit of 'Maritime Law'. The education system? Fuck me, this gets tedious, what the fuck do you think then? More bastard lies and fabrication for 100,000 grand a fucking pop for fuck all, and no job? The health system then? need I say fuck all else then? Wake the fuck up.
Last time folks, withdraw your implicit and complied concent. You are being reamed alive. Your entire life, as was mine was a bastard lie based on fabrication and deceipt, so now you know withdraw yourself from the whole fucking lot. Do whatever you have to, but stop giving these child molesting bastards the implied and complied concent of your mother fucking names. Withdraw and fucking disapear, its not fucking hard.
'Laws of Physics' was never wrong my friends,
Roll the mother fucking guillotines, and you will never see a cunt like this cunt who trades mystery oil ever again.
Take back what fucking belongs to us all folks. There is No, Other, Way.
;-)
Cunts, utter fucking nation wrecking paedophile cunts.
While the rest of your comment is spot-on, SPECULATION is an important part of capitalism. Don't throw the baby out with the bath-water.
Fair play Thisson,
I speculate you dabble in wheat fututes then? Stuff that shouldnt be reduced to folk gambling on seeing as they might need such to live? You know to eat?
How about wall street gambling on your house burning down or making payment on said house? Stuff like that, documented fact mate.
On the ruination of their fellow man? Stuff like that, and dont take Mixys word for it, look it up, but as you say lets not throw the bath water out with the baby eh?
Some folk, fucked off some folk eh?
;-)
i agree with thisson - your rant was a good one and spot on, especially the part about the government and the monetary systems being a lie. but there's no good reason for bashing people who trade oil or otherwise speculate on commodites.
the freedom to bet one way or the other is how price discovery occurs in the marketplace (or what remains of it).
as long as no force or fraud occurs, it is their right to speculate, and anyone tries to infringe on that right should properly be regarded as an unjust aggressor.
if alice wants to sell bob a contract to deliver 100 barrels of oil on jan 1, 2016, at $100/barrel, and bob wants to buy that contract, how is that any of your business? what right do you have to interfere in someone else's agreement?
Andrew Hall? Learned his trade from his dad, Monty.
That’s what he gets for believing in Goldman’s crude price forecasts.
And so, another world renowned commodities trader finally blows up his book and loses billions for his clients after pocketing hundreds of millions for himself. It’s the story that keeps coming back again and again in the financial world. I guess it always will as long as there are greater fools who actually believe there are gurus better able to predict market moves than they can.
Anyone need a well-used dart board?
Someone predicted the latest carnage or facilitiate it:
Mexico’s oil hedging deal exposed: Put options locking in the sale of 5m barrels of crude for at least $80 per barrel were this week publicly reported on a swap data repository, a type of information warehouse. The trade was labelled with the prefix Maya, the name of Mexico’s main crude stream.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4d8957a0-4015-11e4-a343-00144feabdc0.html...
you see? now that was a legitimate trade by a producer. mexico, producer, hall, scumbag who neither supplies nor uses the stuff.
His clients are likely 1) only losing pocket change or 2) will have any losses made up by the perpetraitors or Maiden Lane like reimbursements.
Somehow it seems that the american human bean is going to absorb those losses one wayon another.
I wonder if there's any oil left in 'Murica's strategic petroleum reserve? When the left hand moves, keep your eye on what the right hand does.
Commodities, markets can be whatever they want them to be regardless of fundamentals.......until suddenly they can't be 'managed' anymore.
There is a techtonic power shift going on and as much as they dismiss gold being an integral part of that it clearly is.
Damn, I was betting on Hall to BTFD in oil with his OPM. Eject goose eject, there's no one under this!!!
You would have to have balls of steel to fade this right now on the larger time frames or OPM.
It's unfortunate that the media makes gods out of people like Hall and Paulson when one massive bet goes right. This idea of a trading god that is more powerful than the market should be put to bed.
http://investfts.blogspot.co.uk/
Tylers,
A new way to go instead of nail gun.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2866973/Banker-dies-impaled-rail...
"Dies"
"Fell"
"Was killed by defenestration"
Which of the above does NOT appear in the article? You'll have to read it to find out!
I can't help but notice the timing of Mr. Hall's bonus denial and the downward trajectory of his fund.
This guy's gotta be working the short side of things. Just look at the size of his art collection! http://www.hallartfoundation.org/collection
Guy's got lousy taste in art if you ask me. Not a Francis Bacon in the whole lot!
I sure hope New Jersey was able to remove its taxpayer's 100 million dollars from Mr. Hall's fund in time. I rather suspect that New Jersey was NOT alone in handing over money in a somewhat desperate move to improve the state's probability of being able to pay public employee pensioners their pensions.