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Oil Is a Warning of What's to Come

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

Weeks ago, we first warned that the collapse in Oil was a BIG sign of trouble brewing in the financial system.

 

Indeed, in the larger picture, Oil just called “BS” on the whole claim that any economic growth or recovery post-2009 was legitimate. For five years, Oil prices remained elevated, suggesting that there was some kind of economic recovery underway… that there was growth, however anemic.

 

We now know that this was total nonsense. Oil has lost 40%+ of its price in less than four months. This is a CLEAR SIGNAL that the 2009-2014 asset price bubble is bursting.

 

 

Other asset classes are preparing to follow suit. Commodities across the board are collapsing to the downside…

 


 

Copper is closely aligned with the global economy. It just broke out of a massive 5-year pattern to the downside. I expect we’ll see this collapse accelerate in the coming weeks… just like Oil.

 

 

What does this all mean? What we’ve been saying for years now… that the entire “recovery” story was total BS and that the Fed has made things worse than before. As always, stocks are the last to “get it.” But we wouldn’t be surprised to see a crash in stocks in the coming months.

 

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.

 

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html

 

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

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Wed, 12/10/2014 - 21:25 | 5538877 Prober
Prober's picture

So collapse of all fiat currencies and all governments is immanent (again) - what should I do ????

Maybe buy some (more) shiny yellow lead (again) ????

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:37 | 5535995 garlll
garlll's picture

The feedback control of this economy is gone,in the moment  either too much inflation or too much deflation

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:37 | 5535993 garlll
garlll's picture

The feedback control of this economy is gone,in the moment  either too much inflation or too much deflation

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:32 | 5535976 Kina
Kina's picture

short Saudi blood.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:25 | 5535950 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

It is time to reveal true motive.  It is more than just greed.  The 'movement' to NWO is being done by someone other-worldly.  In order to snare a rabbit one need only put out a wire trap with a noose.  In order to snare a world, one need only collect all the wealth. 

The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows..

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000)
and many many more including banks in Belgium of all places

Jewish owned Fed, and all these other 'houses' are Jewish owned as well.  Why is that?  Why does the Fed feed more and more money to these particular groups?

Folks need to start looking deeper than just the next headline.  We are about to be subjected to the test.  It will be full of suffering and misery.  This is 'their' plan.  They have motive.  Think about it and be prepared.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:19 | 5535937 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The American and world economy is in uncharted water and weird crosscurrents are clouding our economic future. Last quarter America's GDP came in at a strong 3.5% but the fact that a 10% jump in federal spending, mostly on Pentagon hardware bolstered growth and was very much behind the numbers.

This "pre-election" spending was the biggest increase in federal spending since 2009 when the Obama administration put in place a huge economic stimulus package. Mix in an upbeat November number concerning job creation, falling oil prices and ever higher stock market prices and new record highs and many people have the impression we are on a roll. The article below delves into some of the many crosscurrents at work that could bring the economy to an abrupt halt.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/12/crosscurrents-cloud-future-economic.html

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 08:32 | 5535848 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Sorry, not seeing it yet.

I am thinking that for it to be the real start of the end, we need some big swings in both directions.

Our business this year is very strong globally (up 20%) and consistent in North America. There is a tendency for managers to think that they are just outperforming the market, but that is also typically not the truth.

There is a chance that oil will be the harbinger, if it puts a squeeze on money supply and entities have to sell other assets to cover oil margin calls, but I am not seeing any of that either. The banks own the downside risk and they can and do simply create all of the money they want, for political purposes, out of thin air.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 08:03 | 5535808 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

MASSIVE GLOBAL QE IS COMING SOON.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 07:37 | 5535786 Mad Muppet
Mad Muppet's picture

Deflation, then inflation, then hyper-inflation?

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 07:23 | 5535774 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

All simulated oil traders please step forward...

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 01:36 | 5535524 TurdOnTheRun
TurdOnTheRun's picture

Oil is warning of lower gas prices for my new 700 hp car.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 00:08 | 5535386 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

When financial problems occur in the energy sector it is often accompanied by political instability and sometimes her ugly sister war. As a rule the economy loves stability, bottom-line dropping oil prices means more risk for an already shaky world economy. All this is being complicated by the recently strong dollar.  The dollars strength and the rising American stock market could also be taken as a sign of an unstable global economy. 

When a strong shift in currencies occurs someone usually gets hurt and this can lead to bankruptcy, default, or contagion. A great deal of the shadow banking world overlaps and falls into the grey world of derivatives.  The total derivatives market has grown to a massive size. It includes hundreds of trillions of dollars in over-the-counter non-reported agreements and private contracts and is estimated to be over 20 times larger than the global economy. Everyone paying attention knows that even a slight problem in a market this size could collapse the whole economic system. The article below delves deeper into the problems caused by falling oil prices. 

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/dropping-oil-prices-increase-risk-to.html

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 23:34 | 5535325 Lazane
Lazane's picture

comodities across the board are dropping  er ah eh gold ah er silver aren't these two also comodities, oil is dropping because the western zionist power elite only cares one thing, bury Putin, because Putin is a threat and knows how to deal with zionists Jews.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 08:18 | 5535831 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

No, gold is definetely not a commodity.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:32 | 5535975 garlll
garlll's picture

From one site

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/hard-assets-university/20-hard-assets-...

Conclusions, and gold is not in the bucket

Base metals aren't glamorous. They don't make headlines outside of the commodities markets, and aside from Jim Rogers, you aren't going to hear pundits on CNBC talking about what a great investment lead is. But here's the dirty little secret about base metals: They have been by far the best-performing sector of the commodities markets over the past three, five and 10 years. Best by a mile.

 

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:33 | 5535952 garlll
garlll's picture

I don't understand lithium in this moment is more important than gold, there are other metal more important because some industries don't work without them, gold only two or three industries use it and not in way that is burden, gold only supports monetary policy.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 19:43 | 5534669 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

Oh Bullshit on this whole price drop in oil.  Show  legit proof there is a glut....no freaking way.  The only glut is fiat and why commodities are selling at current prices for asswipe paper is the only joke.  If you want to keep oil available you have to pay the marginal cost for freaking fracking oil. 

This is all about politics and econ warfare 101 that the asswipes in Washington started now the Eastern alliance is mearly using the downward momentum to turn the tables on the oppressor.  Call it master chess move or Sun Tzu Art of War.  US inventories have been declining for months and with the high depletion rates in the Shale world then supply will compress quickly.  NOW  IF the crap is truly at the fan then maybe it could last a month or two longer.  IMO this is just more rape and pillage by the 1% dropping the asset prices to stupid low prices so they can hoover them up...rinse and repeat from PM's just more concentrated as it has to be given the consumable nature of the master resource ENERGY

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 19:02 | 5534532 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

As the above charts verify... here's what's happening to oil...

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/oil-light-sweet-crudeelliott-wave-upd...

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 18:43 | 5534487 shankster
shankster's picture

Deflationary depression.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 18:42 | 5534483 shankster
shankster's picture

Its about to get real.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:21 | 5534206 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Oil demand is being artifically suppressed, Russian "sanctions" are designed to crimp global oil demand, a perverted and illegal cartel use of US foreign policy to promote EU economic interests of no benefit to American taxpayers, the oil dip is temporary, Do NOT buy a 660HP Mustang-on credit, the 2017 model will be faster lighter and cheaper. 

 

 

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:16 | 5534187 Bobby Lee
Bobby Lee's picture

I'll believe deflation is here when I see cheap 22 bricks stacked in huge pyramids in the aisles of sporting goods stores.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:50 | 5534079 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Help me out here. If oil is a sign of things to come, I have read on ZH many times that oil and gold generally move in tandem. Other than a spectacular default on physical gold and silver how are these metals ever going to break out to the upside in this environment? 

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 03:39 | 5535647 jaxville
jaxville's picture

   Our currency is a "confidence game".  Credit based money is dysfunctional.  It results in massive debts being built in any society employing it.  Now those debts are choking growth.  Soon servicing debt will become untenable.  Those who hold the debts will be faced with writedowns and liquidations.  Those who hedged their debt through OTC derivatives are going to need to exercise their "policies".

 

  The financial sector is going to be looking very shaky and soon.  Consider that your currency ( fed res notes etc.) is part of that sector.  Not so good for confidence.  People who want out have few options aside from precious metals.  Combine new buying with deleveraging of paper gold ( defaults, bankruptcies, sanctioned thefts etc) and we are sure to see gold advance as deflationary expectations set in.

 

  My guess is that we may see $3,000/oz gold over the next few years.  Higher prices will follow but the gains from current prices to ~ $3,000 will vastly exceed (in real terms) the gains it makes to much higher numbers should the financial sector succeed in getting inflation currency into the economy.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 22:19 | 5535153 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

You should hope gold drops to $900 oz in fiat. Grab as much as you can afford at that price.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:35 | 5534260 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Gee, let's see...I wonder if it such a decoupling might result from a widespread loss of confidence in fiat currencies that have been, and continue to be badly degraded by CBs, and stock markets that have been inflated wildly by cheap money, stock buybacks, etc.  

Give some thought to the expression "good collateral", and ask yourself what will constitute it when the herd inevitably flees the fraudulent stock and bond markets.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:46 | 5534291 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good question(s).  Make margins 100% on all commodities and let's find out the answers to all these questions!!!

 

You see, if you physically possess the oil, you can in fact do and build shit.  Oil is by default a reserve currency in many ways.  Why?  Well if you don't have it, you can't do or build shit and hence will not have much of an eCONomy.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 22:02 | 5535104 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

And all futures contracts MUST take delivery.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 18:10 | 5534405 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Yes, that's the crux of the matter, and my inclination, like yours, is to cut through all of the bullshit and keep hammering home the point that it's not if, but when the fraudulent system breaks down, and when ain't far off.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:01 | 5534120 Rusty Diggins
Rusty Diggins's picture

Well, you see, THIS time it's different.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:46 | 5534069 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Totally agree Phoenix. As Martin Armstrong says" If oil drops below $57 A year-end closing below this will signal a massive collapse a deflationary cycle will impact the oil producing regions. This will spark the old Texas-NY Arbitrage. When NY booms, Texas does into Depression. When Texas booms, the tables are reversed."

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:34 | 5534026 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I love $2.00 a gal. gas.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 17:14 | 5534176 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Me luv it too. Fuck the rag heads and oil barrons, especially the rockafuckers and their 650 foundations that give only to PBS and are merely tax shelters of easy oil money.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:12 | 5533948 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

I see this same pattern everywhere, collapse, rise, then slow demise.

"I can't breathe" is not just a slogan, it's a sign of whats happening to the country.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:10 | 5533945 Dick Gazinia
Dick Gazinia's picture

But on the bright side, an 18 pack of Coors Light is $12.99 in my area.  Way down in the last few months.

 

Is my red neck showing?

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 01:05 | 5535481 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

How is Coors Light like sex in a canoe?

They're both fucking close to water.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 21:58 | 5535087 cn13
cn13's picture

Coor Light? 

 

I would rather have nothing.

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 21:28 | 5538887 Prober
Prober's picture

I saw it once and thought it WAS just dirty water = nothing !

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 21:58 | 5535091 cn13
cn13's picture

Coors Light?

 

A great IPA or nothing.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:16 | 5533964 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

A true redneck like myself sticks to 30 packs of PBR for $15.99.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:33 | 5534023 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

so I should be pissed that dogfish 60 minute costs 11 bucks a sixpack around these parts?

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 22:16 | 5535145 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

Gave you a greenie as I sip a Dogfish 75. (50/50 mix of 90 & 60 minute IPA).

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:38 | 5536007 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Duvel is a little more expensive but it takes a lot less to get the job done.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 20:21 | 5534792 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

MHL has been 9.99/18 pack for 3 yrs!

 

such a deal.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 16:03 | 5533916 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

Panic Calmly

Wed, 12/10/2014 - 09:37 | 5535996 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Like, "Shut-up when you're talking to me!"?

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 15:40 | 5533799 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Just supply and demand.

Not anything more.

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 15:59 | 5533851 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

It can't possibly be foreign oil producers putting the massive oil supply in the U.S out of business by dropping the price to below U.S. fracking/shale oil production costs?

Tue, 12/09/2014 - 15:35 | 5533775 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Nor should you 'be surprised' if the market is over 19,000 in the coming year either. 

Bottom line:  anything can happen. Which makes these guesses no better than a coin flip. 

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