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GREXIT Fears Spark European Peripheral Contagion, Silver Surging
Yesterday's greek carnage continues as stocks and bonds in the Hellenic State collapse further. The Athens Stock Exchange Index is now down over 18% from Monday's highs and yields on the 3Y GGB have exploded to 9.35% (pre-bailout levels) and are 75bps inverted to 10Y. The ongoing fear of fallout from a snap-election victory for anti-EU Syriza has also spread to the rest of the perihpery where Portuguese, Italian, and Spanish bond spreads have all started to crack wider. The beneficiary of this risk aversion so far are Bunds and Treasuries and precious metals where silver is surging higher.
Greek bonds are now inverted and trading at pre-bailout crisis levels...
As Greek stocks continue to crash...
and the anti-EU fear is spread to the periphery
and the rest of Europe's stock markets are sliding...
And precious metals are bid...
* * *
Simply put - by lifting the possible veil of the ECB - the probability of GREXIT as it were - we are getting a glimpse at non-manipulated credit risk appetite in Europe... and it's not pretty - nothing has been solved.
Charts: Bloomberg
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greece exit again? always a good bear trap. as if any change can happen when everything is rigged in favor of the bankers. especially the polls.
Yawn.
Until Athens gets Kiev'ed -- nothing will change and there will be no Grexit.
Or at a minimum, call for a confidence vote, that will buy them a couple mths.
I wonder if that 500lb Greek poliician is still alive..
Greece is a vassal state of the EU overlords. Will be fed just enough crumbs for subsistence and circuses for distraction to keep the natives subdued.
Hard to drive tanks underwater.
Silver now 3 dollars off the lows in 7 trading days...
CDS "event"?!?! Pretty please?
Mmmmmmm..... no. Request denied.
Heh heh.....things that will never happen.
There will be no 'credit events'...
Ever.
Yes there will. My wife racks up a shitload of credit events every month on her Visa.
Heh heh....does your wife have a military branch?
Request back on, just wait a couple months and bingo bango bongo, it's here.
Just freaking DEFAULT already. It's not like Greece hasn't done that dozens of times before. Everyone's used to it.
If you want to leave the EU, fine, leave. If you don't, that's fine, too- not like there's any mechanism to kick you out anyway.
Same problem in 2012.
If Greece gets wiped out, it wipes out BNP, Soc Gen, Deutsche, Commerzbank, and a handful of Italian lenders.
Greece cannot default across the board until the finale.
It's probably not just the same, it's probably worse now.
I am sure the ECB will buy all that debt up at full price beofre the default....just wash it clean with freshly printed money....
That lawsuit would escalate so quickly through the German court system --
Plus: On every bill, "EURO" is also written in Greek letters (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#mediaviewer/File:Euro_Series_Banknotes...). This is - in my opinion - one of the big reasons why they can NEVER let Greece exit the Euro. It would be just too obvious for everyone that the currency has failed. So in that sense it is true what they say: If Greece exits the Euro, the Euro is dead.
Fool me can't get fooled again.
Ah, good old "W" quote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
GreXit? The ECB? Come on! What I hear is the giant sucking sound of trillions of dollars leaving the scene and repatriating. They are leaving Russia, they are leaving Greece, they are leaving lots of places
all the rest is noise, then Greece ain't the US, and won't hire a "plunge team" "because stock market levels have to be corrected to go up, up, up forever"
perhaps I'm mistaken... but I don't think so
further, this "Greek stock market crisis" has been triggered by a decision of having elections earlier then mandated
This is just the PTB crashing the Greek markets in order to scare the Greeks into voting the "right way". That is to say, do not vote for anti-EU politicians or else...
If you haven't learned that the "markets" are policy tools by now...
"What Would Draghi Do?"
Drama drachma....
The Central Banksters are finally losing control of markets. He who panic first wins.
As if the monstrous debts of the west will ever go away. The banksters can lie and cheat and manipulate interest rates near zero but debt still keeps rising. The end result will be default or hyperinflation. The day of reckoning beckons.
Nahh --
Schiff has been yapping about this for over a year now. The markets will burn, Janet Yellen will come out with a MEGA QE4, and you'll have Junker and Draghi and HvR circler jerking eachother "everything is fixed -- look how great we are."
All the while the Chinese and Russians are getting their house(s?) in order.
This will move slowely until something blows up and then it will move quite quickly.
I don't think the Chinese are doing much to get their house in order economically. Sure, they are purging the party of anyone who might differ with the boss and buying gold but who knows to what extent exactly. 4,000 or 8,000 tons ain't gonna get it done.
Russia appears to be the only state in good shape, long term, economically. Something about having gas, oil, gold, and very little debt.
Premature, JustObserving, premature. You squirted too soon. They haven't lost control yet. We'll see shit go parabolic when that happens in a significant way. Oil down? Greece down? PM's up? Yeah, it's interesting but the monster mountain of shit has yet to obliterate the fan. It's coming, but I don't think the Central Banksters have quite lost control yet.
Yup, anything that hits the fan now but leaves the fan intact isn't "it". When "it" hits the fan will be obliterated.
Not at all. The markets are policy tools. They are always were the bankers want them to be.
Time to ratchet up some geopolitical turmoil as a distraction...
http://olduvai.ca
"Greece- a new hotbed for terrorism" is 3,2,1..
Nothing was ever solved. The sovereign debt blowup will be here in a year.
http://otdon.blogspot.co.uk/
You too can be a home Greek equities market specialist for just $4200
After losing his job, my girlfriend's ex-husband's cousin's brother-in-law is now a home Greek equities market specialist. last year he lost $300 just by working 26 hours a day.
You can do that too.
The European Union is a perfect example of why NOT to agree to one world government. Everyone else is screwed because of a few. Winning.
very happy to read that. then don't have a world government. We'll keep our insane-in-your-eyes system and you keep yours (wherever that is)
Your system is insane. Period.
Government without the democratic consent of the people is a ticking time bomb.
name the european government, and I'll name the democratically elected parliament that oversees it. come on, you do better, usually
Italy post Berlosconi
Greece post Popendreau
Then there is the whole EU legal substructure, at which point I would point you to the 2005 votes, or Ireland re; the Lisbon Treaty.
The Italian Parliament threw out Berlusconi from his Prime Minister seat. The Greek Parliament threw out Papandreos from his Prime Minister seat
the name of the thing is parliamentarism. look it up. "the boss" is the democratically elected Parliament, not the Prime minister, who is appointed by Parliament
come on, we are getting repetitive
Pray tell -- why did their parliments throw them out?
Was it perhaps -- *AFTER* both these men wanted to give their populations' referendums?
Why yes it was.
So your narrative is as follows;
"Berlusconi/Papandreos: Yes, I want to give the Italian/Greek people the ability to decide what they want to do and whether they want to stay in the EMZ."
"Their parliments -- HOW FUCKING DARE that man give the people a vote. We shall break coalitions, call snap elections, stab political allies in the back, because, after all, he wants to let his people decide.
My narrative is the following:
"Berlusconi/Papandreos: Yes, I want to give the Italian/Greek people the ability to decide what they want to do and whether they want to stay in the EMZ."
Brussels/Frankfurt thereafter makes a few phone calls to Rome and Athens, threating people with bankruptcy, leaking naughty photos of them with their gay mistress, offering them cash for free, if they kick the guy running the show out. Thereafter --
"Their parliments -- HOW FUCKING DARE that man give the people a vote. We shall break coalitions, call snap elections, stab political allies in the back, because, after all, he wants to let his people decide.
Given the parlimentary system -- which narrative do you find more compelling?
Haus, did you spell parliament three times wrong on purpose?
my narrative is way simpler: diplomacy among sovereigns, represented by their elected parliaments. Berlusconi lost his majority over one year... and then all at once. For lots of reasons. Including his last few initiatives, which turned even me from a supporter to an ex-supporter
Papandreos promised a referendum without consulting parliament first. And this was too the straw that snapped the camel's back
Diplomacy among sovereiegns.
Explain to me how diplomany among various sovereigns has anything to do with the currencies used in Italy and Spain. See, it should have been an Italian/Greek decision. Not a EU influenced Italian/Greek decision, which it most definitely was.
If you think that Frankfurt and Brussels didn't make phone calls to Athens and Rome and make carrot or stick propositions to the various leaders -- you are fooling yourself.
Lets start with this basic premise. When both men stated -- at the height of the crisis that they wanted a referendum -- that they wanted to offer their people a referendum, you can agree that Brussels and Frankfurt made phone calls trying to make sure that it didn't happen. Yes?
what were the carrots and sticks in your imagination ?
I figured trunks full of cash, binders full of women, gigs of gay porn that would pop up in inconvinient places, various people's wifes finding out about affairs, stuff like this -- very J. Edgar Hoover style.
vivid
The NSA approves of your message.
Haus, who decides for Italy? The elected Parliament. Who decides for Greece? The elected Parliament
Berlusconi and Papandreu were the servants-in-chief of their parliaments. Which do maintain diplomatic ties to France, Germany, Finnland, etc. Hell, even the national parties have ties to their counterparts, and have common groups, like the EPP
and it was among the EPP nexus that certain moves were agreed. we are talking here about national party leaders talking with each other, and policy discussion inside the parties
nevertheless, throwing out Berlusconi required a majority in Parliament. That's a few hundred MPs and Senators agreeing on something. The same in Greece
the same kind of majorities needed for national laws, here
the "Brussel Nexus" is a journalistic embellishment. Of course Brussels is handy, for meetings. Particularly if most of those who have to meet are anyway national ministers or shadow ministers. But Brussel's EU org talking heads had very little to say about the real matters. It's actually anyway outside their scope. It's the same that the English-speaking press never knew if to call an EU Council meeting this way or a "summit of heads of european governments"
but again, our system(s) are based on parliamentarism. it's Switzerland that is based on direct democracy with plenty of referendums. we don't allow referendums... unless parliament allows one
not understanding parliamentarism is not the same as finding a sound criticism of the same
So what you are saying is there is no real system of checks and balances in your so called democratic system.
Parliament is elected. Parliament hires and fires PMs. Parliament can prevent referendums. Parliament this, that, and the other thing.
There is a name for that (I forget but democracy, or a form thereof, is in the name) but it really just means another form of tyranny.
Your parliaments are owned by banks. You aren't free and you have no recourse. Hell, they are gonna tell you what seeds you can use and what kind of appliances you have permission to buy and use. Good luck with that. You are so far gone there is no point in trying to help you. It's just bad money after worse money at this point.
TheReplacement, if you want to say that our system is a tyranny of elected parliaments... well, we could debate about it
fact is that we have constitutions. fact is that we are talking about systems that often followed fascist dictatorships, for sure in Italy and in Greece
lots of check and balances, but not those you find in the US system. and many of those checks and balances were written with fascist dictators in mind
meanwhile, "Your parliaments are owned by banks" is incorrect. In part perhaps projection. The US banking system is way more powerful, politically, then the european ones
further, note that important chunks of the european banking systems are owned by countries or regions or even in certain cases by cities
apples and oranges. both can be rotten, but you have to understand the differences, first, before you condemn the one or the other
Representative democracy has, since 1970 ("late" US legacy, again), an structural flaw.
Votes in congress are public and BECAUSE OF THAT, susceptible of coercion and bribery (no one could buy your vote if it was private, as when a citizen votes).
Until the congress representatives don't vote in privacy (without those electronic buttons and the led-panel with the individual results), it won't stop the lobby activity that dynamites the proper function of the sane multilateral union that EU should be (and was created for).
Great essay about the consecuences of public congress vote here.
good point. if I remember correctly, both Italy and Greece use a secret ballot when parliaments vote on Prime Minister's so called "vote of confidence"
You are ignoring my question.
Do you, or do you not think that Brussels and/or Frankfurt put pressure on Italian and Greek MPs to throw out their leader.
I expect a simple Yes or No. Don't dodge this, or I'll troll the shit out of you with this question ad infinum until you give me either a yes or no.
it all depends on how you define "put pressure on", your examples of threats or pretty childish, and very American
I should have written : your examples of threats are silly, and very American
No. Brussels pretended to put pressure. the pressure was from the boss in Brussels. which is the EU Council. which is the summit of the heads of governments
which is still a simplification, because the debate was quite public, among all EPP and all Socialist parties, with grave divergences among them
the real nexus of kicking out Berlusconi was the bunch of conservatives which you usually don't see as conservatives. the same that elected Sarkozy or Berlusconi, which, btw, agreed on Draghi
in some countries you find them as "Christian Democrats". In Germany, it's the CDU and the CSU
but pressure itself is the wrong word. Berlusconi was long due to be kicked out, and Papandreu too. We do kick out Prime Ministers for various reasons. It's a feature of our system
parliament :
etymology : parler + mentir = parlement ( French )
I'd LOL that if not for the sad fact that our friend says he understand parliamentarism but every time re-lapses in a different legal thinking/tradition
Just a silly joke, Ghordius.
Not sure what you mean.
Anyways, I think both you and Haus have a point. His weak point is that he can not prove threats or promises were made, and that in politics in general, al lot of things happen behind the scenes all the time. Not that I think that is noble, but maybe too human to be avoidable. I once heard somebody say that if you demand transparency of certain meetings of the FED , the real meaningful discussions will simply take place somewhere else. Something about secrecy/discretion humans apparently can not do without ? If the Greeks or Italians think too much went on behind the scenes and they do not trust their politicians they can vote them out of power. Does Haus not think the US exerts a lot of influence on German politicians behind the scenes ? Why does he not revolt against that too then ?
you have to understand that he comes from a political environment where diplomatic insularity is seen as a feasible option. and where diplomacy, treaties and so on are more swearwords then anything else in the casual political debate
but you have a point: the voter
here, the voter can vote whole parties out of existance, or at least out of government. Both Greeks and Italians have repeatedly done so, with the most notable example of the Partito Comunista Italiano which once proposed a tax on pension... and was never voted again, to the point where many of their previous leaders had to found new small parties. The same happened on the other side, in Italy, with the Christian Democrats completely disintegrating, never to come back as one block
the same fate seems to be that of the German FDP, the liberals that got through so many things... to the point that they were left out of goals, and eventually votes. So it's a party that is slowly dying
compared to the mortality of european political parties, behold the near-immortality of the American ones
Cause parliment ain't Mississippi.
Time for "Whatever it takes 2.0"?
But he really means it this time.
question is... did you understand what he meant? it's not "throwing money at all problems", QE-style. it never was
I know he promised to do "whatever it takes to save the EUR"
and somehow -- Spanish yields went from 8% to 1.54% in a matter of months.
The power of jawboning.
< Silver
< Gold
Vote
Yes.
<--precious metal
<--paper
Fixed it for you.
With the new BlueStreamII requiring de-facto Greek involvement and natgas transportation payments, couldn't Greece exit and join Italy, Spain, and Portugal ? or would Greece go Turk ? If OttomanII occurs, as Turkey is not EU but is NATO, then there could be many exit strategies. Will Turkey be the next power broker after Germany ?
Greece will turn to Turkey the day after the KKK moves its headquarters to Harlem.
Print or die. Southern Europe is a drought-stricken field of dried-out weeds, so much tinder for a conflagration sparked by a single cigarette tossed out the window and whipped into a torrent by the Santa Ana wind.
Greeks buying silver?
With what? EU-SNAP cards?
< Greeks buying silver
< Greeks buying vaseline/astroglide
Parasite Guild Readying for Orchestrated Financial Attack in Europe:
http://winteractionables.com/?p=17112
AKA "Kicking out the supports."
This could mean that somehow Greece might default, maybe.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/12/10/israeli-control-of-congress-cite...
Everyone's forgetting the way things are............NO Recessions, Certainly NO Depressions, NO DEFAULTS, and definitely NO EXITS.
Greece will be a flaming corpse covered in flys and it will be the EU that decides to let them go at that point not Greece deciding on its own.
Hopefully i'm wrong though........i'd love to see these countries tell the EU to go get fucked and throw out the US puppets.
I think big fish, little fish would be a good analogy. Eventually the big fish starve as well.
I disagee, in principle, rsnoble. I've not seen any big fish starving. It'll be abrupt, like the goths at Rome, where the masters of the world were still partying when the sheeple crashed through the doors, looted, and departed for greener grass.
I've been reading about the protein values of grass, it's tasty and fills one up if a bushel is boiled with some wild onions. Throw in a silver coin or two into the pot and get some colidalness, it's a win win. For a hour or two.
Good thing to know about the grass. Luckily the county failed to mow along my road even once this year, so I've got plenty of 3' tall sorghum.
Well... as long as the deer and my goats don't eat it first.
Paperprices pushed back down, we can't have gold and silver rising two days in row. Please walk on nothing to see here !!
If they're trying to drown paper gold before the NY open, they're not doing a very convincing job...
But when that paper is heating your home in your fireplace, that other stuff that causes the criminals so much aggravation will be handy to have around.
Your talking about "that other stuff", lead, right.
A dissolution of the EU would probably benefit the people in the long run (one can infer this because the unelected oligarchs and bankers seemingly don't want it ... good for one bad for the other).
A more interesting question is: How would the states deal with their own sovereignty? They have no currency or systems to create it. The independent banks would have to create competitive money ... and say goodbye to the petro dollar. We are very far down a path, heading toward a wall with a fire chasing behind us. We will hit the wall eventually and turning back would minimally be very, very painful.
I guarantee you BuBa could go back to the DM in a weekend if it was told to by Berlin.
Thereafter in the choas, everyone uses the DM as a trading mechanism as nations figure out what it means to be a nation again.
I'm going to assume the banks (read: BIS) are prepared to go fully digital, so any conversion is just a math algorithm.
Silver surged and promptly slammed. Clockwork.
If it's silver paper that went up, at least it's a realistic response to the market bleeding through, but when it REALLY hits the fan, that silver coin in your hand will outperform its "paper assigned" value beyond your imagination. You can take that to your vault.
Geez! The only surges I've seen in silver, are down. And in boat sinkings.
WAR Someone annex Greece NOW.
The 3 rating agencies will proclaim no event in Greece.
They will not let Greeks fail on money.
BTW. I was expecting, that Ukraine will go bust first. But at the moment Greece is heading the race.
Greece ( and other PIGS) - No EXIT. Every few months this charade of a phantom exit creates a bit of volatility - some eurocrat or other steps in and says he will do whatever it takes to "block all exits" and things "surge" again. Nothing new here.
perfect, we need to give the masters and not buying opportunity. hit stock 10%, then "save" the EU and reach new highs. At this piont is it even fun for them any more? oh, another barrel of money? throw it on the pile dear...ho hum.