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Name That Chart? Oil Supply Or Demand Edition
While the question of supply vs demand in global oil markets is merely different sides of the same coin, we hope the following "name that chart" image provides some clarifying perspective on what is really dragging oil prices lower...
Nope... they are not the same... one of these is a commodity that is crashing but is believed to be "unequivocally" good for the global economy... the other is the global economy!!
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DO NOT LOOK BELOW HERE UNTIL YOU GUESS... DON'T DO IT!!!!
Answer here.
and yes, we know correlation does not imply causation' but... if it quacks like a duck, cook it.
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You decide... steady supply into globally crushed demand...
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It both!!!, It's the bassomatic... ...or it's a floor wax or salad dressing or somthing...
Cook it in oil bitchez, plenty to go around.
looks like it's bottoming and it's all upside from here. We will now have cheap oil and wars...throw in an earthquake, tsunami, and volcanic eruption and gdp will go through the roof
KrugMAN
The GDP of an oil-based economy is tracking oil you say? Shocker!
Hey I have an idea, let's make more and more of that "GDP" simply paper-pushing bullshit and then simply create more bullshit paper out of thin air and start pushing it around!!!!
Wait, what? That's how we got here? nevermind...
Y’know, it’s not fair that our private oil enterprises are competing with State owned Saudi Aramco.
I hear we have about 35 billion barrels in the SPR..
We should top off every cavern, every tank, every tanker and every spare empty milk carton we can find at these prices and then announce US subsidies for the oil and gas business
We bailed out the F’n banks, why not the oil business? .. they are much more worthy.
But then.. that may not fit with “the owners” plans.
(every swinging dick including the emperor and his Wookie is owned)
You forgot the triple China Syndrome(s) in Japan. Gotta throw that n there.
Oil won't be cheap. Wells are being shut down. The Saudis win with market share and higher prices.
KY should be cheaper which is nice for the fucking coming our way
The FED can change what things look like.......................
finish the quote and reference!
Afternoon game.
... because of Janet's piggy-lipstick
James Bullard, 12-11-2014
So it's on.... Get done with it.
They appear to have met at the bottom.
Delicious
NO Duhmand.
Thought that was a chart of QE credibility.
Well, I know me and all my friends and relatives have totally stopped driving in the past 6 months, and we no longer heat our houses, and I think this is pretty much representative of everyone, here and in Europe and Asia, so I can certainly see why demand has crashed - I bet that's why the price is down. All this nonsense about other agendas like crushing Russia - what a bunch of tinfoil hat bullshit. Clearly, with nobody driving there's no need for oil. When I'm walking to the local foodbank to pick up my supplies, why I hardly see a car on the road - who needs oil anymore? That's so 2013...
The signal for me was when Mercedes was in a meeting with a equity desk and the question of why Mercedes was looking to sell new cars to ride-sharing serivices. They spun (and the same story is in the Telegraph) it as great to hook new buyers, because they have zero confidence millennials will purchase luxury cars going forward due to "changing views on ownership". Our new guy disagreed. New guy will go far someday, and everyone knows this thing is on borrowed time.
On another note, anyone spoke to Carl I recently on his high yield debt swaps he was using to hedge his activist book ? That HYG - Oil move must be worth as much as his YTD if he put it on when HYG was trading at 100 tight.
Anyone with over 3.5x debt will be blowtorched when rates plus demand buckles in 2H15. This is too brittle, but we have no more 10-25 to QE.
Even if the most shorted melt up, the chance to sell on cover is going to be closing soon as Primes are ramping borrow rates high on large volumes, forcing many to go into underlying (and why vol's are kicking into overdrive).
Not sure what you mean by ride sharing, but Mercedes diesels are used for taxicabs all over the world and have been for more than 50 years.
They also make the smart car.
Of course, thanks for pointing that out.
"PEAK OIL", bitches...heh
"PEAK OIL PRICES" --fixed, and big difference.
CHEAP Peak Oil - who would've thunk it would turn out like that??? Drive Baby Drive! (while you still can...)
zh attributes supply and demand to oil prices but gold is rigged. how funny. here is what was going on at the top of the oil market, (the third week of june 2014):
On the 29 June 2014, ISIL announced a changed of name to Islamic State, and declared a 'Caliphate' that includes Syria and Iraq. They then declared Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the Caliph and leader of all Muslims...
Russian state-owned gas firm Gazprom says it has cut off supplies to Ukraine after negotiators failed to resolve a payment dispute before a key deadline expired...
Prices declined in a nearly straight line ever since.
Peak Washington!
If it quacks like a duck, have sex with it
Go home, Mr Yellen, you're drunk.
look at all of the goverment jobs that will be created!!!!
Fucking Tesla! evrybody is buying Teslas and oil demand craters! Somebody call the president or Yellen or whoever. This gotta stop!
When talking about the supply side, everyone talks about the U.S. shale production as a "game-changer", yet no one mentions the "Mother of All Game-Changers" viz. Iraq.
YES!!! or the fact that they are selling that oil to Russia and China!!!! (and not in exchange for dollars).
Nice chart. It seems clear, though, that crude prices are following GDP estimates down, not the other way around...
I kid you not, Jim Cramer said there isnt a "demand problem we just have too much supply"... Ah Jackass,,,, We have too much supply because there is a demand problem.... Spin, spin spin...
Damnit. emk1 told us all that lower prices creates higher demand.
On the other hand, I new deflation was coming. Its a two edged sword we serfs face. Great, we have lower prices. But more of us lose jobs and those lower prices don't help the jobless. The roller coaster ride has just begun.
For example, recently some have complained about the high beef prices. Well eventually, that too will get hit. Just about all commodities will go down including PMs. History repeating again.