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Saxobank's 10 Outrageous Predictions For 2015 - A Reckoning's Coming
Via Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen,
Standing on the doorstep to 2015, we are experiencing near perfect conditions for momentum and equity investment. Inflation has fallen to its lowest since the 1980s, interest rates have followed, and energy is relatively stable.
Corrected for inflation, oil at $65/barrel today equals $20-40/b in the 1970s.
Low volatility has given investors a false sense of security that could lead to the biggest upset in 2015. Central bankers meanwhile have become the generals in an economic war in which the final tool in the box - competitive currency devaluations – merely exports problems overseas.
Nowhere exemplifies this better than Japan after the latest bazooka launch by Shinzo Abe threatens to become an out-of-control, inflation-stoking missile. Japan may have bought the global markets a further quarter or two of protection but the real world will have its say.
We saw it for one week of mayhem in October. If that’s anything to go by, we are in for a rollercoaster ride in 2015. Tangible assets and production sit at all-time lows.
Paper money investment has crowded out productive capital while societies are dominated by hairdressers and bankers. We’re losing the art of manufacturing.
Meanwhile the power of the US of A is waning as China rises and when the superpower pecking order changes, volatility and war ensue. Nothing is ever given and Outrageous Predictions remains an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside.
By imagining the most negative scenarios and events you will have a better chance of navigating the turmoil, be it a Russian default, volcanoes spreading havoc, or an internet Armageddon.
And we at Saxo Bank remains convinced higher volatility and a potential move towards a mandate for change is upon us as macro thinking enters a final fight to the death before we can again put our faith in people, ideas, education and change rather than hollow promises. 2015 will be a tough year but potentially also the year we look back at as the nadir.
As Winston Churchill famously said:
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
10 Outrageous Predictions...
- Russia defaults again
- Volcano eruption decimates crops
- Japanese inflation to hit 5%
- Draghi quits ECB
- Corporate bond spreads to double in 2015
- Internet hacks smash online shopping
- China devalues yuan 20%
- Cocoa futures hit USD 5,000/tonne
- UK house sector to crash
- Brexit in 2017
Full Note Here (PDF) and Video Discussions of each prediction here
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I thought you defaulted because you had an over abundance of debt.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-debt-to-gdp
Yep. It's an upside down world doc. The Russians will be fine.
They said they were gonna do it......damn if they didn't get it done.
I predict prognosticators will prove they don't know Jack shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzoqyPb6btg
Do you speak Russian?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQE2amAs2-U
I predict another year just like this one- more slow boiling of the frogs.
Wait ..... one volcano in Iceland pumps out more "polution" than all of Europe's industry and transportation combinded ? and somehow we're going to "save the planet" by planting a few trees and taking our own bags to the grocery store ?
But if it saves just one life-----it`s all worth it!
You can plant trees and drive hybrid cars, or just kill camels and cattle. This has been well known for years but never makes the headlines.
http://www.livescience.com/14531-methane-camels-killing-climate.html
I predict that in December of 2015, some @sshole will publish a list of 2016 predictions.
& the fucking list will actually get published on a slow news day.
Dead Banker #37? London ‘banker’ impaled after falling from penthouse
Conspiracy Fact: UN reports confirm Israel aiding ‘rebels’, Al-Qaeda groups fighting in Syria
I predict that ^^^^WTRFLY^^^^ will SPLINK (new word: SPAM/LINK) about a billion more equally useless fucking articles by the end of the year.
No really... WTF???
I think this is additive, so your comment makes zero sense.
If your swimming pool is 5% piss, and you piss in it, there's more piss - just to help.
Better to be 'pissed off' than to be 'pissed on'... Wait! unless...
Only if you ignore that biomass absorbs this stuff.
And just think that there are on average 60 volcanoes erupting per year, and 20 or so erupting on any given day. The CO2/greenhouse gas output just from the volcanoes is far and above what Humans contribute to 'global warming/climate change/whatever the weather is when Al Gore gives a speech demanding our taxes go up to "fix" global warming/climate change................etc'
the #Briiics are stacking.....bitchez
One defaults because of a lack of cash or because it is the policy.
We know that banks can create as much cash as they want and so any Russian default can be directly attributed to the banks causing the default.
Nah, Russia can just claim it too big to fail, not print any money and avoid default. Should be fine.
No no no, default is something of a bygone era. Nowadays there a systems, insurances and swaps in place. Modern economics, you know.
Doc, default has nothing to do with the magnitude of the debt, it only has to do with the ability to monetize the service on same. Russia has nothing compared to the US or Japan, but will likely default due to its inability to monetize same.
When the debt is only 13% of GDP they don't have to worry about monetizing it. The Russian deficit is only .5% of GDP. They have plenty of room to work.
Demand payment in whatever they want for their natural gas from Europe. Whichever is going to avoid default, be that gold, USDs, euros, of make them aquire rubles and pay like that
Russia should have two price levels for its natural gas: a normal market price for countries with normal trading policies and a higher price for those counties indulging in sanctions.
Thanks doc.
One really wonders how brain-damaged these writers (including quite a few commenters here) are to predict a Russian default next year when they just had done that in 1998, and because of that currently have very little debt.
dupe
Also might want to look at this article further exposing the outrageous lies being spewed about the Russian economy from the western MSM:
http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2014/12/09/03-23-27pm/study_shows_...
Or consider this analysis of the entire siutation in Ukraine:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/09/washingtons-frozen-war-against-ru...
$134B Russian debt. Like they can't pay or service that. Ooh, scary. That's about $1k per person to pay off or to service. Ooh, real scary. Shiver me timbers.
Uka-rain, OTOH, they'll be booming right? "Booming", literally.
What a bunch of wankers.
US piles on that much debt weekly.
Like Japan and Italy?.. guess not.
Mostly positive stuff, except for the volcano/crop thing (unless Monsanto goes bankrupt as a result).
Japanese inflation at 5% is also probably not a positive thing for the people.
I don't think this next round of money printing is going to bring about any more illusions of growth in Japan. Just make everything they have to import (mainly energy) more expensive. They only way I see 5% inflation in Japan (the fraudulent way the calculate it, anyway, I would guess good and energy and other shit you actually NEED are already at or above that) is if rather than merely direct monetization of the govts debt, they start creating money and giving it directly to the Japanese citizens, trying to encourage them to spend. Probably around the equivalent of 1000 USD for every working age adult in each household, at least in the first round. Directly handing people money will seem like a good idea to them because they are stupid , and that could be what leads to hyperinflation and collapse. Obviously this is pure speculation on my part
They are not far-fetched at all. If Tsipras gets elected PM of Greece and demands the ECB write-off, its highly likely the ECB will face a capital call and the Euro sink towards parity with the USD. An alarmed Germany will insist on Draghi committing Hara Kiri (anathema for an Italian) or resign in favor of Jens Weidemann.. At Least five of the ten have a 50% probability of happening..
Your assumption is that Germany doesnt fold. If you will replace Draghi resignation with the Bundesbank being cleansed then you are on to something.
Look at the US and how the republicans just caved, there is NO difference now its all Facist, and resistance whether it be Russia, or the Bundesbank will not be tolerated and will be crushed.
End game is near.......
agreed and hope it comes true
bunga, large long gash, yep, that sounds like something a banker would say.
Here is an outrageous prediction: Jamie Dimon jailed for muppet sodomy
...Dimon blames victim, muppet imprisoned.
4thstooge--ing
...dimon blames victim...
...demon blames victim...
fixed it.
But thats not a crime !!!
Can muppets be killed for resisting arrest?
Not killed, but they might have a "warning shot" (or 30 warning shots) fired into their chest
Where is the Japanese Bond collapse scenario? Where is a major war in Syria or Ukraine scenario? Where is the Greek default scenario? Where is the Japan-China or China-Vietnam conflict scenario? Where is the Ebola worst case scenario?
Many more things can go wrong than envisaged by Saxobank
I'd say Dow 25,000 as capital flees to the US.
so, you think that that "cash" won't be buying bonds? interesting.
And what if the Fed jacks up rates in order to support the dollar, or to force all those with adjustable rate mortgages to refinance (giving the banks another windfall in the process) to fixed rates? Will company stock buybacks be as prevalent when the banks start charging them more and more to borrow?
thge overwhelming majority of those ARM mortgages are tied to LIeBOR, not the Fed Funds rate. you tellin me that TBTF are gonna let LIeBOR normalize higher?
Bingo. Head I win, tails you lose.
question is what starts that scenario, Euro should be tanking it isnt (perhaps yet)
Not good at finacials so much usually just read these threads. But why wouldnt fed money changers not dump unwanted dollars into the stock market? So if Russia dumps dollars and China and India, what keeping those monies from inflating the market?
Maybe if Saxo filled muppet orders honestly, rather than hold them in a "que" so they can take the other side with profit, I'd take them more seriously. Any dope can make a prediction.
www.traderzoo.mobi
Prediction for 2015.
WTI drops 20% below Brent. US taxpayer bails out industry lender banks. US exports to EU. Russia fails.
US surrenders after provoking brief European war and its 'allies' switch sides.
NATO disbanded.
No, European is going to accept an alliance with Russia. Forget the propaganda you read online in broken English on newspaper comments pages most, Brits at l least, think Putin is a dangerous psychopath.
Predictions are what they are, only predictions. Did anybody predict oil at $60, bonds up and SPX at 2100?
Actually yes, a lot of us here got two out of three. I think oil is a bit surprising, but the other two were not.
But just a year ago everyone, including many here, kept saying "the BRIC will save us"......
My ten
1) Japan abandons ABEnomics
2) US debt ratings cut
3) War in the Caucauses (Just because)
4) Iran tests a Nuke
5) Major US retailer shakeout (no more Penneys, or Sears), Best Buy again on life support
6) 30 Year Mortgage below 3 percent housing fails to respond.
7) Obama pardons 5 million more (why not), major surge at the border
8) Supreme court approves use of signing notes
9) US moves towards single payer system
10) by Q4, Illinoi and several major US cities in big bond trouble.
And as a bonus, Putin dies, and is replaced with a former Goldman Sachs executive.
If you question the average man in the street in the UK 95% of them will say 'property never goes down'.
Most Chinese too, thats why they can't buy Sydney apartment buildings fast enough. They'll soon have their paradigm tested.
...Which would be your cue to dump property and buy a nice RV with a good long extension cord, and pull the ol' Snagglepuss "Exit, Stage Left even."
1) Economy of the western world crashes sloppy dead
2) US Dollar rendered worthless
3) 99% of US population starves to death
If you think 99% of US population would starve to death what do you think would happen in Africa and China and a lot of other parts of the word that rely on American produced food?
more of the same.
the point being ?
2015 prediction: No interest rate hike by US FedRes.
Can't happen, so, won't.
I have yet to see ANY "Predictions" hit even the 50% mark. Even on ZH.
Just for grins, go back 5 years and look at the year-end predictions on ZH.
"The problem with the future, is that it's not what it used to be" (Just made that up. If it exists already, it's a pure coincidence).
Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.
Thanks, Yogi !
I predict thatL
ZH will continue its slide toward MSMism with more articles espousing the MSM point of view.
More ZH commentors will be paid shills of TPTB.
There will be more attempts to create racial tensions/provoke race war in US.
Small scale revolts (terrorism against TPTB) in parts of the EU.
Syria will become strategically inconsequential but there will be boots on the ground nonetheless.
Republicans in Congress will NOT reel in the CIA, NSA, illegal immigration, election fraud, welfare, Obamacare, or anything else that matters.
The number of Federal Laws will increase and local police will be further militarized in order to enforce those laws at the behest and control of Federal agencies rather than their customers, the local populations.
Japan will reach a straight so dire that even China will feel sorry for them.
The west will start to see physical gold shortages starting in UK/Euroland.
63% of FoxNews viewers will support the use of torture... oh wait... that happened today.
37% of FoxNews viewers will realize that when their Johnny gets captured the enemy will have cart blanche due to the use of torture by Americans. Happy thoughts. Now, where is that damn drill again?
How'd Saxo do prognosticating 2014:
http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2013/12/29/just-how-outrageous-are-saxo-banks-10-wild-predictions-for-2014/
The volcano prediction is the only one written in stone.
(Not often, but i can be clever.)
Hmm. I'm not seeing a single "outrageous" prediction on this list. Perhaps the word means something other than what I think it means. Some, or all, of these predictions may not come true, or at least not in 2015, but "outrageous" isn't the word I'd use.
"Cocoa futures hit USD 5,000/tonne"
I mean seriously, this is interesting, but outrageous?
How about Apple stops making iPhone? That would be outrageous ;).
How about The Principle opens in theaters against the effort to stop it, and has cosmologists and cultural hacks scrambling? Oh that already happened. Oh oh. The black swan no one thought about!
http://www.theprinciplemovie.com/
I predict that a white male cop will shoot and kill an armless, paralyzed from the waist down, seventeen yr old, genius black male who was just about to graduate Harvard with a dual degree in finance and artistic dance. The nation will morn, millions will attend his funeral and obama will adopt him by executive writ. the white cop will, of course, be hung in the town square after claiming he only shot because he felt threatened.
Oh, and the rest of the nation will be issued EBT cards in order to save walmart.
You got it all right except the Grand Jury will decline to indict the cop and he will get his 15 minutes of glory and self-pity-party in the right-wing media and then he'll be completely forgotten. Except by people we then call "racists" for having remembered the incident at all.
But the rest of it is spot-on.
Below is URL to Saxobank's 'outrageous' predictions for 2014:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-19/saxo-banks-10-outrageous-predic...
#7 - right on trend, off on oil price.
Paper money investment has crowded out productive capital while societies are dominated by hairdressers and bankers. We’re losing the art of manufacturing.
The pretty lady that cuts my hair has a cruising boat on Lake Erie, a vacation house in Gatlinburg, Tennessee and drives a Lexus.
I have holes in my socks. (Former Industrial Technician)
I guess it's my fault for not going off to hair stylist school.
Oh heck, while we're all having fun here:
10 Outrageous Predictions...
1) 40 dead bankers on 2015.
2) Greek, Italy economonies take off, reimburse their debt.
3) Draghi exit from ECB.
4) Euro become Golden Mark: 60 % gold backed.
5) Gold to 3,000$
6) Bitcoin to 10,000 $
7) BoJ monetize JGB. Japan hit 2% inflation target but people see 500 % increase in energy/food price.
8) Israel decolonize, go back to 1967 border and promote two state solution and peace, Jews throw out Zionism return to Orthodox Judaism.
9) Russia launch preemptive ICBM on white house.
10) Russia develop laser to destroy ICBM while in ballistic reentry.
...the "nailgun club" has a full 50 members before 1/1/2016.
http://www.niburu.co/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8688:i...
Why not? Here is mine: THE BIG 6
1. The Gold/Silver hucksters will predict a critical shortage of PM at the beginning of 13 of the 12 months in 2015.
2. Somehow, the PM market (the market where the critical shortage exists) will scrape up 10,000 tons of Gold & Silver a month to ship to China and Russia. None of the PM gurus will know how they are able to do that.
3. There will be no less than 66 million PM bloggers that predict $20,000/oz Gold in 2015. On 12/31/15 they will push back their prediction to 2016.
4. All Silver mines will reconfigure into swimming pools because they just never make a profit.
5. Old Mr Gold's meetings and admonitions will take root and the entire US population will withdraw their cash from all US banks and store it in their homes.
6. The Furguson mob will travel from city to city and town to town cleaning all cash out of every house changing their chant to "You owe me".
You never know, these could be true.