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Because... USDJPY
It's all about the fun-durr-mentals... A 20 point almost vertical buying panic rip off the lows on a 0.1ppt beat in retail sales? Hhhmm..
119.00 stops run.. now let's see what happens...
and just as we warned yesterday - the short squeeze after yesterday's "most shorted" got ahead of itself...
But High-Yield does not seem to agree...
Charts: Bloomberg
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So easy.....a caveman could do it.
the one day correction (yesterday) has come and gone....nothing changes until some high profile investment or central banker gets hosed, not some scapegoat.
I was reading the comments on yesterday's trading session summary last night... I was amazed at the number of people who still believe this will be allowed to come down anytime soon.
Is there an ETF for "most shorted stocks"? If so, I'm buying it hand over fist.
and at least 6 more points of VIX slamming before the last staged fed meeting of 2014 and EOY
It comes down when the 1% get out.
Do you know any of them?
It's not who you know, but who knows YOU.
If the 1% or the 0.1% don't know you and like you, they're not telling you jack.
It will not be allowed to come down until we reach a point of them simply not being able to stop the deluge.
The real question is:
How long until they own everything and it just doesn't fucking matter?
It's all fun, fun, Fun Till your banker takes the T-Bird away.
- The Beached Boys
The correlation is the easy part. The hard part is being on the list of people who get advance notice of when it's happening.
You then need to pick the right schools, temple and clubs, to get into the Advance Notice circles.
Being a libertarian won't do. I rather suspect.
The CBs are absolutely fucking desperate.
DavidC
Perhaps they are. But their owners aren't.
They are buying up everything in sight, given the rivers of free money they are getting, and the income and rent they are making from them.
Joe Six pack OTOH... barely scraping by with his efforts and working class morality.
"So easy, a caveman can do it"
In a way, yes. If you're already in the system (401k, IRA, stock options), you monetize your year-end gains in stocks and PM.
Oh, wait... there were no gains in PM. But you can BTFD in PM if you had stocks.
Like my daddy used to say: "Balanced people have balanced investments"
JPM says all is well......keep buying STAWKS!!!
December 11, 2014
Dear Investor,
Despite the S&P 500 testing new record levels in each of the past seven quarters, we remain cautiously constructive on equities in 2015, driven by further U.S. economic growth, a pickup in consumer spending, better-than-expected earnings and strong guidance, temporary stimulus from lower commodity prices, and strong corporate sentiment. However, we also expect greater headwinds related to uncertainties about global (ex-U.S.) growth, likely U.S. rate hikes, a stronger U.S. dollar, and generally higher volatility than in 2014. Key influences on growth have shifted, with recent dollar appreciation offsetting declines in fuel prices. Our Chief U.S. Economist expects U.S. economic performance in 2015 to continue the favorable trends of the second half of 2014—solid growth with low inflation—and projects 3.0% real GDP growth for the first half of 2015. We are more hawkish than the Street, looking for the first Fed rate hike in mid-2015, although we do not expect that to derail U.S. equities over the near term.
Our Equity Strategist projects that the S&P 500 will reach 2,250 by year-end 2015, with earnings growth of 8%, driven by strength early in the year. We recommend that investors take overweight positions in Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Healthcare and Financials, while avoiding REITs. We have a neutral view on Consumer Staples, Industrials and Energy and we see opportunities in Airlines and Food & Staples Retailing, but we are underweight Materials, Utilities and Telecom. Our Technical Analysis team expects the S&P 500 Index bull market to extend at least through 2016.
Given a mix of headwinds and tailwinds, one of the most common themes in our year-ahead 2015 outlook is the need for a selective approach to stock-picking. Companies that command above-average U.S. exposure, better-than-average EPS growth, company-specific catalysts, and below-average valuation appear attractive. Balance sheet flexibility for capital deployment, including share buybacks, dividends or potential M&A, could continue to benefit a wide range of sectors.
To help navigate the cross-currents, our year-ahead report showcases recommendations that reflect focused investing styles. Our analyst teams identify key drivers of sector stock prices and present targeted investment ideas (146, to be exact) suited to various investment strategies: growth, value, income-oriented, shorting, and market neutral. To leverage the depth and breadth of these ideas, we also include five related investment baskets. We round this out with commentary from our Economists, Strategists, and Derivatives experts. As always, we remain committed to providing you with pertinent analysis that proves helpful in your investment decision-making process, and we hope that you find this report useful.
Nicholas Rosato Jr.
Head of North America Equity Research
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • Equity Research • 383 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10179
Just one correction, it should begin "Dear Muppets"
Or "Dear HFT Machine".
+1
Thanks! More of that investment letters is welcomed.
Everything is fixed.
We are saved.
yes, yes .... ignore the half trillion energy debt bubble in the room.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html
I see the NIKKI off significantly in the last 2 days, and yet somehow gold is as well. Looks like the short-gold-long-NIKKI has been changed to short-gold-short-NIKKI.
LOL 'Look out everybody, the system's comin' down! Get your life preservers, this time it's not a drill - no REALLY!' At least the Japanese will get a chance to buy gold at a decent price - or maybe they have a nice banker-run ETF they can buy into, you know, invest in gold without the hassle.
I want a nice banker-run ETF I can buy into, you know, to invest in "most shorted stocks" without the hassle.
Well you know, the financial services industry is your friend, so any product they come up with in this regard would have to be a good thing to buy.
When you say it that way it sounds all bad and stuff.
Junk still in the trunk.
Isn't awesome what a Chevy for anyone can do.
Even with bad credit or no credit you can get a Chevy for $1 down. Payments start at $179 a month.
Sure it is $179 a month for ten years, but you have a new car. Hell since your credit score is in the 300 range it won't matter if you stop paying in a few months.
By the way I'm not being sarcastic. That is actually the deal Chevy is running. Anyone can get a car for $179 a month with $1 down, ANYONE.
With good credit the $65 a month with $1000 down leases are back. Pad the numbers and kick then can boys.
For a trillion dollars...what the heck right?
I think they are going to need Bullard Et Al to keep this up today. They would have had a better to shot to run the stops after euro close....
The phrase that pays today is "Santa Claus rally". I've seen it so many times this morning, even I'm anxiously awaiting the arrival of the fat elf and his stawk rally.
"A 20 point almost vertical buying panic rip..."
Algorithms don't panic. They simply perform... and the MSM whores spoonfeed the masses one line after another of post-hoc rationalization BS to "explain" what just happened. When the conditions are right for algos to sell en masse to profit those who hired the programmers, that is precisely what they will do.
Basically thats how pump and dump works on low liquidity small cap stock.....you create enough volume to give the impression that there are tons of buyers...you do this long enough to attract the sheeple.....and one day, they get sheared....
the only difference is, the person pumping and dumping has unlimited capital, that they dont need to sell the shares and they will have an unrealized gain on their books as they keep pushing the share price higher.
As for our current situation, I do not accept the notion that there is some omni-entity with the objective to artificially pump the stock markets higher forever without ever allowing a sharp correction. There will come a time for a sharp correction (there always is), and the winning move for some period of time will be to short the broader markets. The algorithms will act accordingly until some entity intervenes (yet again) and the markets reverse course (and so forth and so on).
Yes, and night always follows day.
But in the meantime, they are making hay while it's daylight, rather than standing by and arguing about the exact time of the sunset.
The Fed understands well enough that markets will ultimately revert to more normal valuation levels, and if people widely believe the coming market correction happens in spite of supposed Fed intervention, of what use will the Fed appear to be to anyone (other than to TBTF banks etc.). The Fed has every intention of surviving with its powers fully intact. I expect more and more jawboning from the Fed that they are not (and will not be) backstopping the markets.
Just think, another 5 to 6 years of this climb on the wall of worry to DOW 30k...
Both play into it...a double wave. looks like USDJPY was shooting up just before retail sales number. the retail number just piled on the momentum. no fundRmentals more than flow of funds now. if this really is the beginning of the end of USDJPY, then expect a lot more fund to flow to US drive up prices for everything. We haven't even seen the expected "blow off yet". Honeslty, to me, most of these high end market strategists aren't as dumb as we make them out to be. I think they realize this is real reason to buy stocks (even more so if EUR runs out of lies). they just can't say that in a paper, as they are giving advise that has nothign to do with the economy.
Just think how bad the US crash will be when the S&P goes another 500 from here?
I can't invest, the market was always a gamble, but this is a gamble on a gamble. i'll just watching it go up another 25% or so. i'm the idiot!
You never plot Rouble/Yen which would be interesting if both were plotted against US Dollar
Here we go JPYRUB.
So DAX up 83
FTSE down 41
UK supposed to be doing better than the rest of Europe - How does that work ?
In fact, the DAX is today currently at the highest point ever above the FTSE at 3380 points
"UK supposed to be doing better than the rest of Europe - How does that work ?"
Probably moar red shield members live there, so they want things a little better than elsewhere.
"The weak are meat and the strong do eat"
BTFD losers...
So just watched Blankfein of the almight Goldman Sachs....funny how he magicly appears on CNBC during a big market slide....of course he's all about the great outlook of US equities and yes he's very upbeat on China cause it's just too big to fail.....wow is this just a coincidence or am I really living in the matrix ???????
He got a call from the tribal member who owns CNBC and a request to appear to help out.
"Ralph, our Apple stock is worth 1 million/share."
"I know, Alice."
"Well, would you get me a share so I can get a loaf of bread?"
Fundamentals? Please, somebody tell me what ALL of them are? Until then [which will be never] what do "fundamentals" have to do with making money? Only trading Sheeple pay attention to the talking heads and try and map the where and why.
www.traderzoo.mobi
I dare you to BTFD of the FTSE
triple dog dare?
If you like, with nuts on
The usd/jpy is probably going to hit a wall here around 119.60. It's the 200 hour avg and the 50.0% fibi of the move down this week. Also lots of resistance on the charts.
I bought it last night figuring the TLTRO takeup would be negative for the euro and that the BLS would fudge pack traders again. Both of those macro figures are $usd positive and usd/jpy positive.
So... this Nikei vs Gold vs USDJPY thing...
Good for gold or golden showers? I mean, now that The Secret is out.