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Car-Buying Surge Sparks Best Retail Sales Rise Since April
It's a holiday miracle: give the worst creditors access to cheap money for longer-and-longer terms and hey presto, 'expensive' stuff is available to everyone. Retail sales modestly beat expectations in November (+0.7% vs +0.6% expectations) despite the NRF previously reporting the worst extended Thanksgiving shopping weekend since Lehman which surely got lost in the Arima-X-12 seasonal adjustments - sending USDJPY spiking to confirm what great news this is. What was the great news? A 0.1% beat of the key ex-autos and gas category, which increased 0.6% in November, vs Expectations of 0.5%, and a decline from the upward revised 0.7% in October.
The other prints:
- Retail sales: 0.7%, Exp. 0.4%, Last 0.5%
- Retail sales ex auto 0.5%, exp. 0.1%, last 0.4%
- Retail Sales ex autos and gas 0.6%, exp. 0.5%, last 0.5%
The driver of all this exuberance: Vehicle sales which surged once again +1.7% MoM courtesy of an overabundance of subprime loans. Oddly, for all those prognosticators looking for windfall tax cuts from the oil price plunge, gasoline station sales dropped only 0.8% MoM, well less than expectations and not exactly the consumption-boosting exuberance every talking head proclaims. These numbers appear to be clearly in the "Fed wants to hike" narrative.
The breakdown below shows that spending declined in just two categories: gas stations and miscellaneous store retailers. Don't tell the retailers that spending across all categories surged in November. One can't wait to see the margin collapse as this (alleged) liquidation resulted in:
And the control group:
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Green day today. And tomorrow. Then Santa is coming to town, so we'll have a "Santa Claus rally" until the end of the year.
S&P 2150 here we come!
Exactly!
That's why I did not get excited yesterday...
This game has been going on for 6 years now.
"This game has been going on for 100 years now." -- fixed.
True.
At the same time, you don't need to be a genius to see that retail sales are actually going strong. And from what I hear they will be up annually in December, despite the bad black Friday.
Look around, all I see is people driving new cars...
So yeah, it's debt and all, but it goes against this notion that the American consumer is "tapped out". He is not. The American consumer is like a zombie: it keeps consuming crap even when it's dead.
" all I see is people driving new cars" -- Please, just stop it. This is not the case everywhere. Sure if you are in a blue state that is close to the "free money" supply, maybe.
this time is in fact different in that we are going to experience a currency collpase. Despite how well places like Washington D.C. or Los Angeles are doing, I don't know if I would want to be there when things really get going.
Living in Houston I see new 50k trucks everywhere more than half are driven by freshly imported illegals. Subprimes are back in FULL force here.
She gave me a hummer when all I expected was a truck.......
"If you like your 72-84 month car payment....."
I really enjoy NOT having a car payment.
We FINANCED some folks.
Your right about that
I was in Spring few weeks back to work at Planet Ford
Mexicans working so cheap I left after a week I am not going to give my experience away ...fuck that ...but while I was in that area e very fuck I saw seemed to be in a new truck beamer, Benz you name it but you want me to work for 15$ a hour rate when posted labor rate is 44$
Fucking most Mexicans..live like roaches ...but Rollin 50k vehicles...
it's amazing what you can afford when you decide not to pay taxes... or insurance, for that matter
"..live like roaches ...but Rollin 50k vehicles..."
Not very familiar with the south or the black communities are you?
LOL, very true, LOL.
LOL, okay, we'll see how Houston looks once the leveraged oil producers get washed out.
Bailouts for everyone!!!
I think it means that gasoline retailers are slow in dropping their prices as quickly as their costs are dropping. Meaning they are profiting nicely for themselves, and not passing the savings on.
Wow, really? Ya think?
It only costs a nickel...so to speak...to produce a gallon of gasoline.
Moving 50,000 dollar trucks that cost five grand to make? No problemo.
Lol, 5 grand to make. Get real.
disabledvet,
Are you trying to be funny or are you off your meds?
Aren't you forgetting about all those taxes on that gallon?
Yeah, I've read hundreds of articles on currency collapse in the last 15 years... isn't everybody buying the USD these days, though?
Are you Dmitri Orlov?
Don't get me wrong, I hate this ponzi scheme, one of the greatest frauds ever perpetuated on humanity, but it seems to me bankers are now more powerful than ever.
Don't know that I necessarily agree with that generalization.
I do see people driving new cars, but what percentage of those are financed? AKA driver doesn't own it.
If there's a glut of cheap credit out there people will use it unless they finally figure out that they don't win by using credit to buy stuff (they don't really need). They're extending loans to people for cars that ought not be buying cars, but that's been going on for years anyway, anything to pull more demand from the future.
Just because someone gets credit to buy a car doesn't mean that they aren't tapped out. Are they doing NINJA auto loans yet....if not yet they're close to it.
"gasoline station sales dropped only 0.8% MoM, well less than expectations and not exactly the consumption-boosting exuberance every talking head proclaims"
What does that even MEAN? Meaning it was expeected to be worse but came in less-worse than expectations? In which case it WOULD be the consumption-boosting exubrerance every talking head proclaims. Or does it mean it was expected to be an increase but turned out to be a decrease? In which canse it would NOT be the consumption-boosting exuberance every talking head proclaims.
Frankly, I'm surprised gasoline sales were not off by a lot more (in dollars, not in gallons).
Yea this data is just made up bullshit...dancing on the head of a pin and calling it great.
Last week I drove Interstates 77, 70 and 74 across 4 different states, and have taken similar trips maybe 20 times in the last 10 years. It was like Christmas traffic on the roads - meaning NONE. Nothing like I've seen in the recent past. It was spooky empty, but a really easy drive. And this was an 8 hour trip mid day on a week day and then again on a Saturday.
There is very little commerece in this neck of the woods - sure some new cars here and there, but so few cars and trucks overall so as not to matter.
The hottest car in Atlanta is the Nissan Leaf. It's leased, it's subsidized, and they are now everywhere.
Cause spontaneous combustion.....is cool.
And it will be obsolete at the end of it's lease.
The perfect New World Order Commercial Product.
It's like the iPhone.
A throw-away device the sheeple will sell to Gazelle.com so some thrid world schleprock can re-buy at 70% of the original purchase price.
Maserati in YOY 210%
Tesla YOY 25%
Nissan YOY 12%
Jeep YOY 44%
In NY area(many hypocrite NY bankers types)...everyone is getting Jeeps and maseratis!
Are those Jeeps Wranglers or those Euro designed all wheel independent suspended garbage? Only "real" Jeep still being made is the Wrangler and I put "real" in scare quotes because it now has a low torque mini-van v-6 in it.
"These numbers appear to be clearly in the "Fed wants to hike" narrative."
They'll never raise them unless forced.
Check out my chart here of Profit Growth After Taxes taken from the BLS data:
http://ejmoosa.tumblr.com/image/104891250344
Does this look like the Fed can hike to you?
Yeah, the Fed will do the talk but will they do the walk? One thing I have learned is that they all dazzle with bullshit. The system is dead find a doctor to pronounce it such.
All I hear on the radio is car dealers ......they must be spending a ton on advertising and any dealer I pass the lots are fucking full with overflow lots everywhere....of course on the teevee as well when it's on its either actors acting so happy for the store commercials or car dealers....
Fucking joke ....
I need a job....
And they ever find that Jet??.?
Over Diego Garcia?
Over Macho Grande?
My bad, we did purchase some new trucks. Had to do something with those capital gains before they imploded. Something for the bussiness that is tax-deductable of course.
Where can I buy a Maybach in the U.S.?
You'll need to buy one used. They haven't made them since the end of 2012, although Mercedes (who owns them) recently announced they're going to bring the brand back for a THIRD time in the next few years. If you're wondering when the "first" time the brand was around, it was back in the 1910-ish era.
Thanks. When better automobiles are built Mercedes will build them.
Good article. I was wondering where all those new Escalades in the Walmart parking lot came from, esp the SUV Escalades always parked in the Handicapped slots. I thought Al or Jesse might be in town.
"Escalades in the Walmart parking lot"
Right at the monthly food stamp renewal?
can someone tell me how this relates to actual units sold?
having just bought a used vehicle a few months ago, them things are friggin expensive.
Seriously, they're like 2/3rds an average family's annual income, for a new sedan. They don't have to sell too many of those to hit their numbers.
The real question is are they moving more units, or fewer units than in years past.
Good point.
The way I look at it is that the average car today costs about a quarter of the average home.
How do all those people afford those $500/month payments? it's beyond me...
I bought my top shelf Tacoma in April, and it costs me more than my house.
It was my first new vehicle in 14 years, and after last winter, I needed something my wife can drive so I don't have to chauffer her around in our RWD cars (driving in 10 inches of snow requires a bit of finesse).
some folks got seasonally adjusted
Um, gas stations make way more money (gross profit pct) on Slim Jims and donuts than they do selling gas. So they might actually have more gross profit dollars now than they did before even with gross sales down 0.8%.
But I don't think I will ever convince Tyler that the oil/gas price decline is good, on balance (I realize it's not unambiguously good and that there are some losers), for the US, so I will give up now.
There are literally hundereds of gas stations available for sale each month - some open, some closed. And very few opening anew. Get on a mialing list and see. No one walks from "more gross profit dollars" in a shit-ass economy. You need to open your eyes, re-work your thesis and quit trying to convince the Tylers of anything.
The run down in gas prices for gas stations is painful. You start paying less for new deliveries, but what's in your underground tanks you bought for a lot more. So when do you lower your prices? If you are lucky, you are the first to run out your old inventory in your area. If you don't lower your prices when everyone else does, you don't sell your old more expensive gas. I feel bad for these guys at the pumps when stupid people vent on them about gas prices, which they have zero control over.
Oil about to hit the 5 handle
F550's for everyone !!!!
Skater cat's for everyone with Mercury 1350's to boot !!!!
Gotta love it when a plan comes together.
Who is doing all this f**king buying? They must be able to make car lease payments on thier SNAP cards now.
Are you kidding? Subprimes are back. Get you one of those fancy escalades on 22's or the new M4. Shit, everyone is qualified.
Government Motors will start offering raffles for a new vehicle with a snap card once lots are full.
never bet against retail sales or xmas in the usa. never.
Never bet against the "cooked books" and the false numbers either.
that too. when it's bad you have to lie.
It's a Festivus miracle!
Oh horse shit.
Ye-Haw! It's better than expected! Who in the world could have seen this coming? The great Amerikan consumer to the rescue.
Just phony up some numbers... works everytime!
All we need is MOAR!
They basicly gave away a bunch of cars.
With a 7 year depreciating loan! The sheep always love paying their massive debt off later.
OT but right up our alley: Jeb Bush the other younger bush
"Documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Nov.?27 list Bush as chairman and manager of a new offshore private equity fund, BH?Global Aviation, which raised $61?million in September, largely from foreign investors. In November the fund incorporated in the United Kingdom and Wales—a structure, several independent finance lawyers say, that operates like a tax haven by allowing overseas investors to avoid U.S. taxes and regulations.
BH?Global Aviation is one of at least three such funds Bush has launched in less than two years through his Coral Gables, Fla., company, Britton Hill Holdings. He’s also chairman of a $26?million fund, BH?Logistics, established in April with backing from a Chinese conglomerate, and a $40?million fund involved in shale oil exploration, according to documents filed "
Actually, most people will die in debt the way things are going.
Gotta keep those production lines going! After all, we bailed them out so they could keep running at ANY cost. Gotta look good for re-election!
If only i could drive i'd buy a big guzzler on tick and help save the FREE world.
As a side note, I stumbled across this recent scathing description of the ZH site on RationalWiki:
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
excerpt:
"Zero Hedge is a batshit insane Austrian economics-based finance blog..."
Whoever the a-hole(s) are who wrote the review of ZH on RationalWiki, they have some serious anger-management issues to deal with. Sounds like they should man up and join us in Fight Club...
No Such Thing as bad Advertisement... Somebody Famous said that..
I will buying a new pickup in North Dakota for about 20% of its value...as they start laying off those workers who financied the biggest and baddest pickup on 100% credit at the edge of their credit line. Kind of like Houston we had a problem in the 80's...well except North Dakota...doesn't actually have any cities or housing.
Monster SUV's in every pot for Christmas.
Frankly surprised that they had enough shorts on to feed the rocket this morning... Would have thought they would have let a few more on before launching....
So, what don’t we already know and haven’t heard 1,000 times? ‘Cash for Clunker’ coming again, only this time it will be for two-year old Priuses and Volts?
Loose credit for consumers and stock buybacks is all that is left to prevent the final collapse. It won’t work in the long run, but it will cost the early bears plenty. Those more patient will get to see the Silicon Valley irrational exuberance ‘everything is a bubble’ burst, and watch the markets plunge. More layoffs and far fewer jobs paying $100k for right out of college software engineers. The Asians work way cheaper mentality has doomed them; greed will see to that. America will fail under massive debt loads, but it will take time for faith in Fed to end.
America doesn't work so:
Sub-prime Works!
Greed Works!
Whatever happened to Christmas?
(Ans: Everyone got sick to death of paedo priests and October Xmas adverts?)
John Cocktosen stands up to address the neighborhood:
I could not afford to get you all presents this year. Actually I have not bought any of you presents since 2007.
I have purchased a car for you all to drive. I used Mr. Underhill's American Express card to buy it.
Merry Christmas!
I just bought a new Nissan cash. I knew exactly what I wanted, went to dealers & just asked for the lowest drive-away cash price.
I had to go to FOUR dealers because the first 3 dealers actually refused to quote me a "lowest cash price" - they all insisted that they could quote a price only AFTER they tried to upsell me on ALL the more expensive models (their "sales process") that I told them I did not want AND that they could quote a price ONLY if I financed it.
I started roaming the showrooms listening to the conversations and could hear the sales people doing heavy upsells on the sheeple, telling them to forget the price and just focus on the payments, and they loaded on extras like dressing a Christmas tree.
The best way to do this is to tell the salesman you want to finance the car. Based on this you agree on the price in writing. You will always get a lower price if you finance, because a lot of their profit comes from the financing, and not the sale of the car. When you come back to pick up the car, you write them a check in full payment for the agreed upon price instead of accepting the financing and filling out all the bank paperwork. You can get the purchase price down several hundred more doing it this way. Don't be afraid you'll get "trapped into financing". If you don't leave with the car, you don't owe them a cent.
Good strategy BUT it requires giving the dealer your SSN to start the financing process/paperwork and that is an ABSOLUTELY PROHIBITED action for me
Absolutely No Bad News allowed till after Christmas... you guys all know the Rules..
buy it today get it repossessed next month lmao
I am still shocked by the retail rejection I just got:
I went to Sprint to get a Samsung Galaxy Note 4 with their unlimited internet data plan FOR FLAT MONTHLY FEE, ie no way to run up charges. I do not give out my SSN to anyone for any reason, so they refused to sell me phone & service.
Called the store manager over, I OFFERED TO PAY THE ENTIRE 2YR CONTRACT IN CASH NOW. Store manager still refused without my SSN.
I OFFERED TO PAY THE ENTIRE 2YR CONTRACT IN CASH NOW ++PLUS++ $1,000 CASH "SECURITY" DEPOSIT NOW. Store manager STILL refused without my SSN.
Forget fiat currency vs PM - USA IS RACING INTO BEING A CREDIT-ONLY ECONOMY / FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
I'll betcha Homeland Security was who you were really trying to do business with...
If they can't track you they don't want your business. Do you think the free Obamaphones were given away out of kindness and generosity?
They DO sell phones without SSN/credit system, but only old obsolete phones.
Finally, more jobs for college grads: doing repos.
I agree, far too many people way out over their skiis. My grandparents, who lived through the previous Great Depression, taught me relentlessly how people with cash can benefit during economic crashes.
I have a pile of cash set aside to buy a big diesel motorhome and another diesel 4WD pickup, to add to the fleet of vehicles and fishing boats that I picked up at give-away prices in the last crash.
Waiting patiently with $$$ and shopping list :-))
Gas is cheap, its your patriotic duty to go out and buy TWO new cars!