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Despite Rate Hike, Russian Ruble Slumps To New Record Low
Despite a 100bps rate hike this morning, Russia's Ruble has slipped lower and now trades 55.8 to the USD - a new record low. The initial surge in the Ruble was quickly sold back as the hike, while in line with surveyed expectations, was below FRA-market-implied levels of 200bps. Goldman believes this will not slow the decline and calls for 'other tools' like unsterlized intervention. Russian default risk continues to rise (though still low) back to the highest since April 2009.
From FX interventions to rate hikes, nothing appears to be slowing the collapse...
But today's rate hike gains very rapidly diminished...
As Goldman explains, this may not be enough...
The CBR raised its main policy rate by 100bp, below market expectations for as much as a 200bp rate hike, but above our forecast for 50bp. In our view, the decision was guided by inflation and inflation expectations dynamics, which have worsened markedly in recent months. The CBR noted that it expects inflation to rise to 10% by year-end and to stay close to this level into Q1-2015, before beginning to decline in Q2 and into H2-2015 – a forecast that is very similar to ours. It indicated that it will maintain a tightening bias in case inflation dynamics worsen further, but will begin easing policy once inflation stabilizes and is on a downward trend. We maintain our view that the CBR will keep rates on hold in Q1-2015, before entering into a rate-cutting cycle in Q2 as inflation begins declining.
In our view, the CBR will continue to adjust policy rates in response to developments in inflation and inflation expectations, while potentially using other tools in order to stabilize the Ruble. These other tools include FX interventions that may be unsterilized and, thus, tighten liquidity, with the CBR limiting the quantities offered at its main lending facilities.
Key numbers
Key rate (7-day auction-based repo): 10.5%, up from 9.5% previously (GS: 10.0%; consensus: 10.5%)
Main points
The Bank of Russia raised its main policy rates by 100bp, above our forecast for a 50bp hike but below market expectations for a larger rate hike, with FRA contracts implying expectations for short-rates to rise by 200bp. The immediate market reaction – a 1% weakening of the Ruble and a 15-50bp decline in yields at different tenors of the bond curve and a sharply lower move in front-end swaps – confirms that the decision was a disappointment to market expectations for a larger hike. Nonetheless, the rate hike was in line with the Bloomberg survey median expectation for a 100bp rate hike.
As usual, the press statement placed most of its emphasis on inflation dynamics, which it cited as the main reason for the rate hike. It noted that inflation was running at 9.4% as of December 8, with Rosstat’s measure of core inflation running at 8.9% in November. It indicated that the CBR’s forecast is for inflation to rise to around 10% at end-year and then possibly to exceed 10% in Q1-2015, before declining later in the year as pass-through from the weaker Ruble fades, with downward pressure from subdued aggregate demand (due to an output gap), and with base effects from this year’s food import bans. The statement also referred to a “surge” in inflation expectations among households and firms.
The press statement reiterates the CBR’s view that the current monetary stance is intended to reduce inflation to the target level of 4% in the medium term. However, there was no reference to the 2015/16 inflation targets, which had been dropped explicitly in the CBR’s recently-published monetary policy guidelines for 2015-17.
The statement indicated that the CBR expects growth to be close to zero in 2015-16, before recovering in 2017. However, the CBR does not see much spare capacity on the supply side and sees investment contracting next year and consumption remaining weak.
The CBR indicated that it will maintain a tightening bias in case inflation risks worsen. However, it also stated that in the presence of a “stable downward trend” in inflation and inflation expectations, it will start easing monetary policy.
Our forecast for inflation is very much in line with the CBR’s. We forecast that it will rise further to 9.7% at year-end and will stand close to 10% in Q1-2015, before beginning to decline in Q2 and into H2-2015. Assuming this inflation forecast, we maintain our view that the CBR will keep rates on hold into Q1-2015 and will begin cutting rates in Q2 as inflation begins falling.
We think that the CBR will continue to adjust policy rates in response to developments in inflation and inflation expectations, while potentially using other tools in order to stabilize the recent Ruble volatility. These other tools include interventions that may be unsterilized and, thus, tighten liquidity, with the CBR limiting the quantities offered at the CBR’s main lending facilities.
* * *
Russia default risk - although still relatively low - has spiked recently to its highest since April 2009...
And the knock-on effect is huge. Here is Gazprombank's Swiss Franc-based 2024 5.125% coupon bonds... trading at a 11.5% yield...
h/t @Russian_Market
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Russia is going to slap the House of Saud soon.
If Russia ties their currency to a basket of currencies + commodities, the House of Saud is fucked supremely.
hey, if it's so goddamned easy to pull that off, and of such benefit to Russia, why hasn't it happened already?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDRUB%3DX+Interactive#
The medi-Evil House of Saud is supported by liberty loving America
TBTB are out for blood re; the Russians. I wish the Russians had $1t in Tbills like the Chinese do.
VLAD: "Quit fucking with my currency or the American Bond market gets it."
Would be epic.
have y'all been paying attention? $US 1 trillion isn't a big number anymore, there's supposedly $300 trillion in other obligations to worry about...
seriously, it's just a fucking number unless you think you can actually come over and collect on it... come and take it
+ 1, pts. As an old Cold Warrior, my position here at ZH re Putin is not popular (I think very poorly of Putin). The question I now have (and I will probably have to repeat many times, ad nauseam, at ZH as time goes by) is:
Have YOU invested any of YOUR MONEY in Russia?
LOLOLOL...
I seem to remember a few months ago that ZH was pimping the idea of investing in the Russian stock market because the sanctions had made it cheap . . . with the ruble at about 35-ish.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/11/16/fun-number-apple-is-n...
HA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HAHA HA HAH AH HA HA HA HAHA HAH AHAHAHA HA HA
I'm with you on this one. I have been a long time investor in Russian stocks, but thankfully pulled out some 3 years ago. I put my money where my mouth is and will consider reinvesting at some point, but am currently thanking my lucky stars that I'm on the sidelines.
Amazing how the Ruble/$ and the $ price of oil are nearly 100% correlated. CB intervention is achieving f-all. The problem with Russian stocks is:
1. the exchange rate - increased risk/volatility
2. their owwnership structure (i.e. very little public float) - increases risk in regards to ownership rights/dividends
3. foreign ($ denominated) debt - increased risk
4. their mission statement (i.e prepared to subsidise national interests at the cost of profits) - decreases profitability
5. the likelihood to be used as a political tool by Putin - but also by the west (see sanctions) - increases risk/uncertainty dramatically
6. commodity based - increased earnings volatility if based off commodity prices only.
As long as the Ukraine and the current oil price dominate the news, I don't see any reason to be invested - yet.
Will you invest in the US when it loses King Dollar status?
"Rosstat’s measure of core inflation"
I wonder if we could apply that measure to our economy and see what they measure our inflation at. I bet it would be vastly different from the one the FED uses.
Q: "...why hasn't it happened already?"
A: Easy. Cause of the Chinese. They want to MAXIMIZE the time they can buy key resources for next to nothing. They pretend to be Russia's friend, but the naked truth is that China is NOBODY's friend, except its own.
Hmm, seems Putin is having to sell off some of that gold he's been stockpiling. Maybe things aren't so great in the Putinkin Village after all.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Russia is finally using all that gold they've been hoarding.
On Thursday, the Central Bank of Russia announced that gold reserves dropped by $4.3 billion in just one week, reports Vesti Finance.
Which isn't all that surprising.
Last week, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would "sell the currency in the exchange in order to maintain the exchange rate," reported Vesti Finance .
Russia has been buying up cheaper gold "in order to prepare for the possibility of a long-lasting economic war with the West" following the sanctions imposed by the West, according to the Telegraph.
In the third quarter alone, Russia added more gold to its reserves than any other nation, according to the Telegraph. And over the last decade, Russia has tripled its gold stocks, according to data from the World Gold Council.
Until recently, Russia hasn't dipped into these enormous reserves.
But now that the ruble is getting pummeled following the decline in oil prices and sanctions imposed on Russia's economy by the West, Russia's central bank is apparently selling off some of its gold reserves to fight inflation and the ruble's decline.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-fighting-financial-problems-selling-182257761.html
No, Vlad's going to huff and puff and then maybe pass some gas. He'll also likely mumble something unintelligible/incoherent.
That's it.
If Russia is smart, they will let it go to 100, then link it to gold, oil, silver, platinum, the Yuan, the Yen, and the Aussie dollar. Just to piss off the Aussies.
If Russia is smart, they will let it go to 100?
Why is that smart? The government of Russia is supposed to be defending and upholding the interests of its citizens. Destroying 2/3rds of the capital in the country sounds massively irresponsible and unfriendly to its citizens-- who are not going to take kindly to such robbery.
People increasingly have this idea that citizens should sacrifice their interests in favor of the greater good of the State, even if it ruins them personally. That is exactly the mud and slime from which the Enlightenment sought to uplift people.
It is high time for a second Enlightenment to break the individual free of these chains of State chattelry.
What's even less smart is the allowance of the USD to go unchecked as some kind of quasi rate hike / Russia pressure move that's going to blow up in their face.
"Why is that smart?"
Because on Zero Hedge, anything that Vlad says or does, or fails to say or do, is submitted as proof positive of Russia's or Vlad's "superior long game strategy."
Like invading Afghanistan and then beating a hasty retreat 8 years later.
Or forming the Soviet Union after the Revolution, then disbanding it in 1991, then attempting to reconstitute it in dribs and drabs 20+ years later.
You know, "long game" like that!
Vlad, you and Russia are cunning like a fox! :-)
Now, now, the internet armies of Grofaz II are going to downvote you until you beg for mercy.
Just ask the Gaza Trolls (oh, excuse me, the RT Trolls) if they have any of their own money invested there!
If they do, they should be proud to tell us all about it!
(Don't hold your breath waiting on them to answer though...)
those fuckers don't have any money to invest
CNBC has the America the Beautiful commentary you yearn for. You know, Liberty, Free Markets, World Police. All that good stuff.
Oo Es A!
Oo Es A!..
Hey, watch it, buster.
America the Beautiful is a nice song. It's written about my hometown and is the national anthem of numerous countries, none of which is the United States.
I always laugh at the idea of a bunch of Third World kiddies standing up in class every morning, putting their hands over their hearts and singing about what a great place Colorado Springs is. Why this makes them feel loyalty and affection towards their own shithole of a country defies all logic.
Here's another golden oldie for you to whistle along to.
When war wing’d its wide desolation,
And threaten’d our land to deform,
The ark then of freedom’s foundation,
Columbia rode safe through the storm;
With her garlands of vict’ry around her,
When so proudly she bore her brave crew,
With her flag proudly floating before her.
The boast of the red, white and blue.
The day is coming when we cast off the foreign governmental institutions which currently afflict the land. We will be free once again. You will continue to believe that you are already free.
Look at this chart Tyler. The MICEX p/e is insanely undervalued!
http://www.micex.com/marketdata/analysis
It's either 'insanely undervalued' or it's due to crash even more.
Maybe buy now and let us know how it goes...?
Yes
wait recoil
Winning currency war
Losing currency war
one inch closer to ZWO initiation of WWIII.
Putin please just place a nice EMP nuke on DC. Then the rest of real Americans can deal logically with Russia and rest of the world.
Can it be scheduled for a warm spring evening, so the rooftop parties can be properly arranged?
According to U.S. atomic veteran Cecil R. Coale,[9] some hotels in Hawaii offered "rainbow bomb" parties on their roofs for Starfish Prime, contradicting some reports that the artificial aurora was unexpected.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Anyone else notice how it is the Putin boot-lickers who are the only ones encouraging war?
Strange...
the fluffers you mean?
Nah, brah, I'm all in favor of Putin nuking DC. Also NYC. Just be sure that Congress is in session, preferably for the State of the Union speech.
Putin will buy back Russian companies for pennies on the Dollar.
Abe is even jealouser.
Lower Ruble means less cost when it is bought up by the Russian Central Bank for the introduction of the gold backed ruble.
It is not intervention in the traditional sense unless you call dedollarization by a gold backed currancy an intervention.
Russia has many options, nuke the house of Saud or just assassinate a few Royal asshats in Saud, whatever is cheaper, or it could force the EU to buy its oil and gas with gold, peg the Ruble to both gold and Yuan and outlaw the use of US dollars for all its trade. I believe the US government is still buying heavy lift rockets and many other items from Russia, Russia should turn the screws on the West, otherwise it is going to be a ride to the bottom and I believe Putin will not let that happen. I am sure we are in for a few surprises yet.
.
You guys are fucking delusional. How long have you been saying "nuke DC, back the ruble with gold, House of Saud, blah, blah..."
All Putin has succeeded in doing is completely screwing up the Russian economy through a collapsing currency which is gonna lead to big inflation. They will compound the problem (like they're doing right now) with higher interest rates which will depress their economy. This is the classic recipe for stagflation.
Putin's not a genius, and he's completely fucked his own citizenry, not that he cares. And you dumbasses haven't figured it out.
lmfao! Please don't take this the wrong way/ The MICEX pe ratio is just above 4:1
The Case Shiller P/E on western equity markets is> drum roll> Just under 20.0%
4 divided by 20= No Brainer
But this isnt Putin. What a lot of people cant seem to grasp is that Russian CB isnt government owned. CBR does as it pleases regardless of what Russian gov wants. Inflation is an issue for buying products outside. They knew after they free float it, the speculators would try to destroy it. It is heavily under valued and not much can be done now about it. Other than trying to tie it to gold or a currency basket. Right now, its lower value is doable, maybe even 60rubs/usd. Inflation can be dealt with by more internal manufactures creating end products. The now issue that just caught a big one for Putin is CBR. They are not supposed to be doing this and they are already under investigation for raising interests last time. Effectively, CB is screwing the country. Glazyev talked about it. There is a growing hate for CBR in Russia and government and it may not take long now for a lot of people to end up behind bars and CBR under federal control again (its privatization was a 90's byproduct).
What you are saying here is that anybody who does not do what Grandmaster Putin wants to be done ends up with a shaved head and a blue denim jumpsuit. This is a classic symptom of fascism. Ownership does not matter to the State so long as the owners do what the State wants them to do.
If they resist the "suggestions" offered to them...
Voila! New owners that will do what they are told to do. Just watch and see.
Lots of CB info on Saker lately.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/12/sergei-glaziev-stupidity-is-wo...
yeh, that was deep
that was hard translate, but result looks success
good post
Vlad'll could be hanging from a noose or switching 'spider holes' every night and the nutzo Zero Hedgers here would be urging him on to greater and greater acts of folly.
Russian default ..lol.
What will most likely happen is the US shale industry will default, killing production and driving oil back up to something reasonable.
Russian debt is very low, a default wouldn't occure. What many idiots don't seem to realise is Russia now isn't even close to 1998. Doesn't even take an economist to figure this out or even take the time to look at figures.
The issue at hand for Russia isn't what Putin is doing. It is what he isn't doing. What he isnt doing is knocking down the door to Russian Central Bank and taking it back to federal control.
Hi, idiot here.
Just thought I'd share my moronic observations with you.
1) Which is the proper order? Idiot, moron, imbecile or vice versa. I forget. Probably why I'm an idiot, right?
2) Russian debt is very low because a default already occurred and nobody wants to loan them any more money.
3) Grandmaster Putin is begging the oligarchs to bring their money back to Mother Russia and he pinky swears not to punish them if they do so. Let me ask you: If you were an oligarch who had safely evacuated his fortune to some place beyond the reach of Grandmaster Putin, would you bring it back and trust that he will not double-cross you sooner or later? Even an idiot like me knows better than to take that kind of a sucker bet.
4) The falling rubble has effectviely stolen almost 50% of the capital, life savings and purchasing power away from those ordinary Russian citizens who are not fortunate enough to have Swiss bank accounts.
5) The rubble will continue to fall until ordinary Russians are reduced to penniless vassals dependent on the largesse of the State.
6) All of these bad and increasingly dire things could end tomorrow if Grandmaster Putin so desired. But he wants the Donets Basin far more than he worries about the well-being of his subjects. Ergo, the crisis will continue and even accelerate.
Russia is not overextended across the world unlike the American government with its imperialistic tendencies and pathetic wars that lead to nowhere. Pacific ocean on one side, Atlantic on the other, Canada above, Mexico below. Over 80,000 troops stationed on the other side of the world. For what exactly?
Russia also does not have an 18 trillion debt. Their debt-GDP ratio is around 10%, not 100%...
You underestimate the willpower of the Russian people. They have been through much more than your average "Joe" and are accustomed to adversity. Putin still has tremendous support at home. People aren't stupid, they can see the American insincerity, hypocrisy and feel the arrogant bullying from miles away...
Putin is playing the game much better than you think. He isn't as "isolated" as the Western media likes to constantly peddle. You think a little currency crisis is going to make Putin melt away like cheese?
Let me end this rant by posing a question: What do you think Vichy DC will do if it found out Russia is actively backing socialists in say, Canada with weapons and intelligence? U think they would idly sit by and watch the cutesy "democracy" thing unfold on their doorstep? Perhaps you've been drinking too much of that American "exceptionalism" kool-aid to even think about it that way.
there you go again
You forgot
7) Russian companies are stuck purchasing important technologically advanced parts and equipment from the outside world because Russia's tech industry has never caught up. That includes everything from Raspberry Pi computers to refinery cracking catalysts. These items are not priced in rubles.
8) Furthermore, because of (7), Russian companies that have any debt to overseas suppliers, such as many small trading companies and distributors, are going to have to pay 66% more today than they would have five months ago, because the ruble was at 32-ish and is now at 55-ish.
9) As a consequence, such companies are going to die like mayflies when they cannot sell products at the hiked prices and cannot obtain new inventory and cannot pay their debts to their suppliers.
Precisely!
Bravo!
Agree
http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766529
This pretty much states how stupid the CBR are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bank_of_Russia
According to the constitution, the Bank of Russia is an independent entity, with the primary responsibility of protecting the stability of the national currency, the ruble.
According to the constitution, Grandmaster Putin was only entitled to two terms as President, but that didn't stand in his way. Now you have a dictator, call him what you will, that will rule until they carry him off in a pine box.
You are right but I down voted you because you have missed the greater dictatorship that has been strangling the US with one blue hand and one red hand. You have also missed the fact that the genesis of the crisis in the Ukraine was the US interfering. You have also missed the fact that the genesis of the GFC is the USA. You have also missed the disgusting reports of torture by the CIA which have done nothing but destroy any moral high ground the US had left. You may have also missed that the great democracy of the US is follwoing in the footsteps of North Korea with its level of surveillance and police brutality.
And by the way, according to the US constitution only gold and silver were supposed to be considered as money.
Haven't you been following along at home?
Wherever did you get the idea that I am a Republican, a Democrat, a proponent of torture, an admirer of the Fed and fiat currencies, or a supporter of the current budding Euro-style dictatorship growing like a cancer inside the Grand Republic?
I have a simple prescription for the ills that gnaw at my country: Faithful execution of the United States Constitution in all of its original glory.
You got a problem with any of that, let me know.
I don't make a point of following individual commentators.
Secondly, good to see you would like to see the US constitution being faithfully adhered to.
If Putin was not in place the Russians would have had a pushover like Yeltsin or some trigger happy tough guy that would have lobbed a few shells into Ukraine just for good measure.
We have to recognise the fact that Putin has achieved far more without firing a shot than the US has ever achieved by firing shots all over the world.
The US is a global player. Russia is not, but would like to be one once again.
Putin has fired more shots than you admit but is constrained by the relatively unfavorable military balance between the two forces. Were the shoe on the other foot, he would be shooting more than he does. His many efforts to break out of the various arms limitations treaties between the two nations makes it clear that there will be a lot more of the rockets red glare in the future of the world.
Even so, I would prefer to see a world where the US stayed at home and let the feckless Europeans and the scheming Chinese divvy up Russia as sort of a payback for the Partitions of Poland.
But I entertain no doubts that GRandmaster Putin is leading Russia down the same catastrophic path that was earlier trod by Adolf Hitler. He wants Russia to awaken and the old phrase of Deutschland Erwacht! transforms into a new language and with a renewed urgency in the new home of revanchist irredentists.
War is coming, have no doubt. But my mind is on what wil emerge in the aftermath.
Tarbaby: You have no knowledge of Russia and are a western magpie crapping on the furniture...
By the way, which is the greater problem?
Putin holding onto an additional term?
OR
The USA carrying on like a dictator across the globe?
VV Putin, concerning President position, told Yelstin he did not know if he was ready..
Later, when Yeltsin gave power. told new President "Take care of Russia"
Putin Administration work for Russia..
Getting late out here, but I will respond manana. Always interesting to hear what is happening on the "other side of the hill" as Liddell Hart called it.
Your math is a little off, by my reckoning. He has already held on to a pair of additional terms (1 PM and 1 Pres) and I, for one, do not expect the streak to end there. What about you? Does the streak end or does it continue on?
So the question becomes one of choosing between someone wbo is definitely a dictator and someone who is acting like a dictator but will be gone in two years.
Let's look at it another way.
The United States is a very powerful nation. Letting the forces of evil gain control of its power is an obvious move regardless of the inherent goodness or enmity of its population. Do I wish to see its power misused in this fashion? No, I do not.
Do I believe that Grandmaster Putin is a peace-loving guitar player whose domineering father forced him into a career wit the KGB? No, I do not.
Do I believe that Grandmaster Putin would like to restore the previous boundaries of the CCCP and make the country more powerful than its current shrunken condition allows? Doesn't matter what I think, but Putin himself has announced this as his ambition.
Does this mean a collision between the ambitions of the dictator Putin and the wannabe dictator Obama is happening? Yes, it is.
In January of 2017, the term of the wannabe dictator will be up and he will be off the chess board. But the actual you-betcha dictator Putin will still be in power.
Stopping both of these men seems like a good idea to me.
Hey honey
Whatever you do don't read my reply to you at 2:00. You probably can't handle any more proof your world class ignorance.
Tell me this: did you go to high school and college, or did you start posting at Zero Hedge right out of kindergarten?
Seriously, you do make the End Of The World easier to take. :o)
You're sweet but that bag over your head must be there for a reason, so no thanks for Friday night. TTFN
You know the reason.
To keep the walking dead away. And their foul Russophobic breath. Do you guys ever brush your teeth?
And at least I'm not out trolling in a blonde wig and a weak rack. Like Ryan Fogle.
Ryan, is that you?
The Constitution has zero effect on financial FACT!
The Federal Reserve is a private entity comprised of bond/ ponzi dealers. Albiet you think you're smart, you're just a child.
You're just a little girl stuck in Asia, or the Middle East, that can't find her way back.
There is many Bush and Clintons...
As soon as any of them change the Constitution to lengthen their grip on power, I'm sure I can count on you to help overthrow them.
But I am not a big fan of dynasties of any sort. Does Putin have an offspring? Just wondering.
Much as I hate to admit it, I would reluctantly vote for one man who is the son of another politician and that would be Rand Paul-- who appears to have at least read the US Constituion and to have done so in the spirit of upholding it rather than looking for loopholes.
I am suprised...do you understand?
Dr. Paul does not point to Russia as the problem.
Rand is another thing...no one can predict where he go. Many terrible votes.
Not the stalwart as his Father
Dr. Paul and President Putin respect each other, logic and reason with common ground.
There officials just ignore the Constitution...
Old Bush said it just GDamned piece of paper? Was him?
It is joke for them, use it against you if handy for them, then forget..
President Putin more respect of Bill of Rights than you know.
Studied all that in school...Rus looked up to the goodness of US Founders after struggle
Great until Russians learn it means nothing to leaders there..
has been wake up call about west....
now Ukraine is learning...but slow and hardshipped cos deccades of handicapped minds from eu brainwash
tarabel
If you have a mate, it must be because you are good in bed, because you are CERTAINLY ONE DUMB FUCK
As I said the other day, you are the quintessential DUMB BLONDE
Oh, come on, Vern.
He serves his two terms, then transfers the primacy of power to the Prime Minister's office so he can wield it over there and then transfers it back of the offce of the Presidency when he goes back to that job. Who can forget that supine conversation between "President"Medvedev and Barack Obama? Plus, of course, the term in office gets extended so he doesn't have to go through the charade as often.
If you want to stand on that as proof of his respect for and submission to the law, be my guest.
He's going to be there forever and you know it.
If he serves out another two terms, he's going to come up with some other ridiculously transparent charade to throw dust in the eyes of the gullible and keep on trucking.
And you know that too.
The fact that you are personally in favor of him serving forever as Philosopher-King of Russia is beside the point. Once he's gone, there will be no lasting institutions left behind.
Puh lease.
There was no transfer of constitutional responsibilities and you know it.
Sure Putin made suggestions to Medvedev. But FFS that's how Reagan governed for 8 years. And wasn't Cheney Bush's ventriliquist for 8 years?
You accuse Putin of things that have been going on here since Booth shot Lincoln and are are very La Te Da about it.
Complaining when we point out who did it first.
You may resume playing darts for beer.
The rothchilds have putin by the balls, he will either submit or have the nads to do what's necessary. Its that simple.
Putin should let the Western banks play their games a little while longer, then leverage up a 'long' position in the ruble, then fix the ruble at a much stronger level backed by gold. This will collapse the western banks and drive up both gold and the ruble.
Putin Adminstration is not the CBR.
Many think for long time serious changes needed.
Less outside influence and more national control
Must be caution. Hop before jump.
There is some indepth articles on this in English last days..maybe look RT, RussianInsider,Sakerblog
That wouldn't work. They would just loose all their gold. Problem is that ruble is has no real backing i.e not much you can by for ruble and its real backing is oil which is crashing. Russian central bank can do little because their own citizens do not trust ruble anymore and are getting rid of it. It is very hard to defeat such downwards spirale. Thats why interest rate increases and taking off rubles from market is not working - population just gets rid of it and are happy. It would work if people would start to feel shortage of rubles (as you still need to buy stuff with money) and would start exchanging back to them, but this simply is not happening.
Remove Ruble from market by using 1 % of the 13 % flat tax revenue, each year remove let's say 20 billion dollars equivalent of Ruble from circulation making it scarce on market. It would work.
Who would I prefer to profit from my oil consumption? Russians or the ME/Venezualian cartel?
I'll take the Russians. I've been there many times since 1998. I'd rather my oil money help them rise to our standard of living rather than to continue to support the idle lifestyles of princes, moronic "drifters", madrasses, hajjs, etc.
I am curious about something and I would appreciate someone with the understanding to explain whether the follwoing makes sense.
The rouble is getting hammered. If Russia is pushed far enough and she turns around and defaults, why wouldn't this be of even more concern to the west?
Also, what if the Russians and the Chinese produced a joint hybrid currency made up of whatever they both agree on such as gold, commodities etc? And such currency to not be part of any fractional banking system?
http://winteractionables.com/?p=17161
57.393. It is just getting worse. Really, the dollar is worth that much after all of the QE shitshows? Funny money FOREX is a damned good way to start a war. I have exposure to the Russian Ruble as well as gold and silver. This shit is not even close to being correct pricewise. The thing is that Russians are stacked in US Dollars and Euros anyway. They do not do PM's. They worry about theft of PM's. Well touche.
So what is really going on? Putin is a tool for sure. I have said this before and anyone who objects either has never been to Russia or does not know a Russian. I have done both and fact married one of them. Most Russians outside of Moscow or even St. Petersburg do not like Putin. They don't like Medvedev either. They don't like any of them or their Duma. This is why you should like Russians. It is not that you should like Putin or his bullshit and his lackeys. That is not quite how it works there. We see a lot of asslove here on ZH about how Western people love Moscow and Putin. That is not how it works there at all.
So get on a fucking plane and go there and see for yourself. The exchange rate could not be better. Don't take my word for it. Go see for yourself.
We had the one guy who said that Russia has women. Yes, it does. I have one of them and she is good. He said they have vodka...yes they do and it is good and they can drink a lot. He went went on to say that they had food. No, not so much on the food. You will lose weight in Russia. It's really terrible food. They really never did get the culinary arts down. It is just disgusting. I can't eat that shit. Fucking caviar? That is fish guts and it is terrible. I really don't care what anyone says because I had it and it tastes just like what you would imagine fish guts would taste like. It is disgusting.
I would say the Russians have some great art though even if it is not all Russian in origin. Russians have beautiful women, great art and some great vodka but not food. You can survive on pelmini and sour cream. This is what will keep you alive if you go outside of the major cities as I did. From what I saw I think most Russians are very friendly if you know another Russian. Othwerwise not so much and especially to an American. Why should they have liked me? A decade later, we found out that they do respect me. I have never cheated on my wife and I have never laid a hand on her. They are my friends now. There is no USA vs Russia except in hockey and figure skating but that is different.
I almost forgot to mention Samogon. Russian moonshine. My wife was not yet my wife but she had a friend come from Azov and her father gave a bottle of his homemade moonshine to the American visitor. I was instructed to pour some onto the soviet era desktop at the Intourist hotel and see if it would burn or not. It did burn. She did not speak English at all so I had to try to figure out what she wanted me to do via the woman that would later become my wife. She told that I had to drink that strange brew. Well, OK.LOL It was not that delicious really but it did have a shit ton of alchohol in it and we drank it and got fucked up. So now here I am with two hot drunk Russian chicks. That gal was about as hot as they come. We all ended up all sleeping together but I didn't do what perhaps I should have done but I was thinking that doing that would not be a good idea. There would be regrets in the morning. Hey, at least I can say I slept with two hot Russian chicks at the same time even if we actually only slept.;-) I really wanted to do it but I couldn't. I gave my word to the other woman who has become my wife of over ten years so far. You can not go back on your word.
The ruble is now trading at 57.5 rubles/dollar.
Awesome!!!
Indo US Relations & The Russian Bogey
The concern the British Military felt about future Soviet intentions emerges clearly from a top-secret report on The Security of India and the Indian Ocean, prepared by Post-Hostilities Planning Staff of the War Cabinet on Churchill’s orders. This report states ‘The USSR is the only major power that would be capable of seriously threatening our interests in India and the Indian Ocean by 1955-1960?. The report also points out ‘It is of paramount importance that India should not secede from the Empire or remain neutral in War’. ‘We must ensure that whatever constitutional changes occur, we retain the right to station Military Reserves in India… There might be political objections to stationing the strategic reserve in India proper after she has been granted Dominion Status… Central Headquarters India have suggested Baluchistan as an alternative to India proper, on the grounds that it may be relatively easy to exclude this territory from the Dominion of India”. “In the event of Soviet Aggression, early support from the US is essential to the security of our interests”.
Indo US Relations & The Russian Bogey
The world's countries are playing chicken.. and were all driving crash-mobiles.