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HOW LOW CAN OIL GO?
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If the oil price is perfectly correlated to GDP expectations, the oil price could theoretically go to zero -
What the US Government is doing to the price of oil is an act of war against RUSSIA.
the US did not do this in corroboration with the Saudi's. That is the popular line, but the fact is the USD rise (death) and OPEC's unwillingness to budget on production (Saudi wants OPEC dead so they can unbound themselves from the Petrodollar without inviting the wraith of the criminal bankster cabal) is causing the collapse of not only oil, but equity, derivatives and one of the most important the US shale sector. US didn't do diddly squat except promote a false perception.
disagree vye. back from Saudi and its a mess. their first priority is stay in power. biggest threat? Iran. that's point 1. Second is Daesh. altho Sunni, they hv no use for the Royals. 3. Russia threw the Saudi's out on their ass: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/1026695...
Fracking is a more distant consideration as the Saudi market is Asia/N.E./Euro/USA except USA jumps to first for known reasons
http://www.islamdaily.org/en/saudi-arabia/2690.president-roosevelt-and-k...
how low can oil go? lower
for how long? _od only knows
Take a million barrels of oil, apply a big lashing of derivative worthless bits of paper to it say 19x, market price now $100 a barrel. Now as all that lovely paper turns to $0 the market price of oil falls to what price?
The paper market of derivatives is setting the current price of oil not the physical amount.
I'll buy that for a dollar!
if your an optimise you can get five wave count, but very rough.
My guess there will be a pullback before a new low.
Sub 30 ultimate low is my guess!
the average costs at well:
For Saudis as little as $5/pb
For Nigeria Iraq Lybia $10/pb
for Russia, Iran, Indonesia $20/pb
For Norwey and sea extraction producers it is $40/pb.
so the question is : who do we talk about?
How low can oil go?...
So low that Americans and Western Europeans will continue to believe what Stan Fischer and Jim Bullard are telling them what they want to hear... That they have moar money and more importantly "moar" purchasing power then they had when it was at $100.00 a barrel, even though there effective real wages and taxes (give it time) haven't changed proportionally! And this will be done until it can't be done anymore...
And when the price per barrel goes just low enough something extraordinary will happen. Kind of like this one or this one only much worse which will invariably change the order of everything we know...
The good news is we may be able to skip the "sacrifice thing" altogether this time around ,because bad news is that their probably won't be much left after that something extraordinary "thing" takes place!
I'm pretty sure the folks that organized a petition and paid a lot of money to investigate this twice over the past five years won't need to worry much about building safety in that or any other city in the U.S. or Europe once it happens!
Peg it at $35/barrel just like the price of 1 oz of gold. I'm old fashioned.
Oil is truly black gold...it cannot go to zero...$30 is probably as low as it could go, even in a Depression, there will be enough demand from Buffet's trains to support that...
Buffet's trains are TRANSPORTING OIL and coal. If oil gets too cheap, it's not worth transporting. Then Buffet doesn't need as much oil to fuel his trains.
Stolen oil in the Mideast doesn't cost much for the thieves to produce.
Til the BRICS repent from their evil ways of trying to defeat the elite banksters. Always one step ahead.
If weak oil companies can't handle the heat, then we bankers will dissolve you and sell off your parts., to our oil partners who we own and control anyways.
When in battle, we take no prisoners, and if we do we will torture the ever living fuck out of you and you will pray that we will have mercy upon your soul.
Good luck with that, and have a nice day, buttwipe.
Well, it's not from the Federal Reserve, so don't look for it to go negative, with ass-clowns paying you to take it...
It's likely that we see a bounce soon. The usual suspects may be squeezing the market lower, ready for a nose bleed rally. The real risk is that sustained lower prices is creating massive default risk.
http://otdon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/oil-crash-puts-market-on-default-ale...
I'd like to see $20. a barrel. Old skool.
It will go as low and as long as required by those who took it down, bought puts and now sit waiting for a few quarters of covenant breaches of credit agreements in the shale area, that will push borrowers to raise equity....equity funded by the same who took oil down. So, I would say at least to $45/bl, for no less than 9 months.
Until Putin has to throw in the towel. Then look out for the express elevator in the other direction. Once a "friendly" regime is installed in the Kremlin - then that stock exchange will increase by at least 7-8 times provided those pesky Russians keep their fingers off.
How low can damand go. In a world that still very much runs on oil, it cannot go to zero.
So why's it suddenly dropping? People stop driving their cars to work? Weather too hot and no-one needs to heat their homes? Everyone using gas? Or pure manipulation? Someone planning on buying some wells and setting things up so they can get a better price?
Sorry, either I'm too far from the action or I haven't been paying enough attention (probably both).
Manipulation. Remember when Enron was operating? Electric prices up and down , brown outs and all sorts of chaos. Don't hear that shit anymore that they no longer exist
When you hit a critical mass of paper oil you start adjusting the price of the paper oil and because paper oil and real are considered the same the paper oil determines the price of real oil.
Bingo. Seems like we've seen this somewhere else before...
That explanation still amazes me. At the end of the day, oil still needs to be dug out of the ground. Paper don't work so well in your fuel tank. Paper can replace paper, oil co.s go broke, supply decreases, man stands on side of road with empty jerry can. I guess the oil companies are hedging so that can draw things out for a while. I might have to think a little harder.
Read up on the concept of "The Devil's Bushel." Once supply outpaces demand - even by a little, in an unregulated market (eg one that's not price-fixed) you can experience a deflationary collapse. By the same token, if you are short, even by a little, prices can spike. That's why TPTB try so hard to control prices and supply in critical markets. Whipsawing prices can destroy markets - especially ones that require huge capital in infrastructure investments to operate.
Of course when spinning tops slow down, they start to wobble and "'zee stabilitee" begins to wane. . .