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It's Different This Time: The Economy Matters Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just four charts to consider now that The Fed has stepped away, the Shale Oil miracle has been exposed for the debt-fueled mal-investment boom that it is, cold-weather is coming, and stock market bulls are forced to face some awkward truths...

 

Stocks are starting to wake up...

 

The US is NOT decoupling...

 

Soft "Survey" Data appears stuck in hope-strewn mode as reality fades...

 

and why - given all of this - QE will never be allowed to stop...

 

What have the Central Banks wrought? We leave it to Jim Grant to so eloquently sum up the farce... What will futurity make of the [so-called] Ph.D. standard [that runs our world]?

Likely it will be even more baffled than we are. Imagine trying to explain the present-day arrangements to your 20-something grandchild a couple of decades hence - after the crash of, say, 2016, that wiped out the youngster's inheritance and provoked a cenral bank response so heavy-handed as to shatter the confidence even of Wall Street in the Federal reserve's methods...

I expect you'll wind up saying something like this:

"My generation gave former tenured economics professors discretionary authority to fabricate money and to fix interest rates.

 

We put the cart of asset prices before the horse of enterprise.

 

We entertained the fantasy that high asset prices made for prosperity, rather than the other way around.

 

We actually worked to foster inflation, which we called 'price stability' (this was on the eve of the hyperinflation of 2017).

 

We seem to have miscalculated."

*  *  *

One wonders if that moment of realization is looming...

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:43 | 5546841 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Beware falling objects, like your net worth.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:52 | 5546862 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Hold puts.. Hold your breath.. buy the dips until it dips below the wick. 

http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2014/12/saxo-banks-10-outrageous-predictions...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:31 | 5547004 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

1Q2015 is when shit starts scattering from the fan and hitting everybody. The big sales for Christmas aren't happening and there will be a lot more companies in trouble than Wall St thinks and they won't be able to paper over it. The insane clown posse led by president Zippy will proceed to make things worse. Spring could be riot season. Interesting times....

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 10:11 | 5547863 Arnold
Arnold's picture

If you think that folks get huffy in the cold weather, wait untill the weather starts to warm up (maybe this global warming has me all kornfused) again.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 10:20 | 5547874 Arnold
Arnold's picture

American Spring, and it won't be the Tea Party in the streets.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:02 | 5546897 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

And bankers.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:43 | 5546842 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

QE will stop when the engine gets gummed up...and it is pretty gummy now.  I would say 1-200 miles more on this engine and that means about 5-10 days.  Unless there is an angel investor with better than fed money that shows up, the show's curtains are closing soon.  Not soon enough but still soon.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:20 | 5546966 MarketAnarchist
MarketAnarchist's picture

"The Angel investor" is the IMF. The "better than Fed money" is the SDR.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:31 | 5547002 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

a) There’s NO such thing as angel or investors because there’s no market

 

b) SDR is another “Bank-Money” target to cover the offshore bank failures

 

c) QE will never stop because it can’t. It will just be given another name

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:19 | 5547164 TinF0ilHat
TinF0ilHat's picture

Ya you are right.  It's called a helicopter.  lol. 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:29 | 5547469 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

Sorry, but it can’t be helicopter, because it would go everywhere, causing hyperinflation.

 

It has to go to the chosen people; but I have no say whom the chosen people ought to be, but hopping my name is on that list…. Of the chosen one, of course; and not in the ones that are not getting it.

 

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:33 | 5547776 BobRocket
BobRocket's picture

Helicopter => Hyperinflation is the traditional view but we're not in Kansas anymore.

Helicopter => Bank collapse as the vast majority just pay off debt and continue with austerity.

 

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:50 | 5546859 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

All the signs are there but we've been through this so many times before and cmon it's Christmas they aren't going to kill Santa.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:16 | 5546952 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

You are right there....Santa is the only dude working to make this economy whole!!  Too bad he is fake...not as fake at the FED but still fake.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:54 | 5546874 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Ha, after the worlds economy has stage 4 cancer...the banksters are beginning to pay attention.

 

REMEMBER that it was not your neighbor Bob the plumber that destroyed the economy.  It was the collusion between Banksterz and Politicians.

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:56 | 5546881 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Wish us folks could put aside any differences as these fuckers on CNBC are defending the FED ( Goldie, JPM & Co ) to the fucking last breath.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:09 | 5546922 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Not going to happen.  Even here -- one of the few places where almost everyone agrees on the most important thing, which is ending the Fed -- most posters can't agree what color the sky is.  Whatever happens, the average guy lost a long time ago because we've been divided.  And conquered.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:30 | 5547000 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Not that I want to throw in the towel, but you're right...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:54 | 5547077 logicalman
logicalman's picture

The mass have been divided and conquered.

The few that have been blessed (maybe cursed would be more accurate?) with independent thought realize that they will be sucked down the toilet by the sheer weight of the aforementioned mass.

I don't like it, but I know that reality can only be ignored for so long.

Time's runnng out.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:18 | 5547156 new game
new game's picture

Time's running out- yea, getting that errie feeling...

like, get ready for the known unknown. be nimble as it won't be what ya think.

possesions will be burdens(my only best guess/clue as to what to do)...

start training/ in a state/nation forest near you. go intentionally get lost and find your way back to the vehicle. back pack in and stay overnight deep in the woods for some adventure. be quite and read the tracker. tuldles- busy weekend up north by Ely...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:11 | 5546928 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

I have to sit mere feet away from one of the teevees in our office, which is on CNBC all day long, and listen to the talking heads and their endless drivel on how the economy is back.  Sometimes I can't take their lies and will bust a spring, blurting out obscenities at them.  My co-workers have come to the conclusion that I have tourettes.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:21 | 5546970 CH1
CH1's picture

I have to sit mere feet away from one of the teevees in our office, which is on CNBC all day long...

Quit. Seriously, your health is more important.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:59 | 5547092 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I can't be close to a TV without starting to get seriously pissed off.

Haven't had one of those infernal devices this century.

I don't invite lying, manipulative people into my home - why the fuck would I PAY for such a 'service'?

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:27 | 5547183 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

"Comrades! Here is news from the Ministry of Plenty! Our Glorious Leader...blah, blah and blah"...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:59 | 5546888 Incubus
Incubus's picture

7 year economic cycle.

 

get in the know. 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:04 | 5546912 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Know what your saying Incubus but IMO . it's different this time . .

When the bubble bursts ' THE OLD SCHOOL ' will not slip back into the fold being headless an' all.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:01 | 5546896 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Jim Grant. Straightforward American with an English sense of underplay. And he knows how to count. One of your better export products.  

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:04 | 5546915 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

Separation of Economy and State is going be a painful one to learn.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:10 | 5546926 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

BTFD, at least until early Jan, these motherfuckers WILL NOT BE DENIED their Year-end gravy...

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:12 | 5546932 BackOffice Slut
BackOffice Slut's picture

For once I fell good about buying puts on various over leveraged shale oil companies and indexes. Hope these actually pay out!!! Lololol

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:35 | 5547209 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

They've already been clobbered. Short their banks.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:15 | 5546946 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture

Dow Down Almost 1000 Points Since Dec. 8th - Are We About To See A Crash Over The Weekend Or Sometime Soon?

http://investmentwatchblog.com/dow-down-almost-1000-points-since-dec-8th-are-we-about-to-see-a-crash-over-the-weekend-or-sometime-soon/

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:25 | 5546981 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Will they queue up Draghi again on Monday to say something that will step the markets back away from the ledge?  Of course there is the last Fed meeting of the year next week too.  I am sure they already have a glowing release prepared to calm the masses.  Same as it ever was, right?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:03 | 5547753 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I would think they will pull rabbits out of their ass to ho;d this together past Christmas. In addition to manipulation by the government-financial complex other forces are converging to further distort and disconnect Wall Street from the American economy.

The market has been all a twitter as we continue in a "greed and stupidity loop" that can best be explained as follows, stocks are rising so why get out, not getting out is causing the stocks to rise. We are experiencing a double down and let it ride mentality that has been ratcheted higher by media hype, but more is behind the stock market move. Just as important it must be noted that as the dollar gains strength cross border money flows have become a massive factor.

While these cross border flows have been good for the market I caution it does not fundamentally change the economy. Most analysts agree that money from countries with weakening currencies is flowing out of the troubled areas and into America. The article below delves into why this should not be considered a good thing as much as a signal of global instability.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-american-equities-are-rising.html

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:25 | 5546975 scatha
scatha's picture
Dedicated to all 0.01% fed by FED. Lucky FED Man  (Original: lyrics/music by Greg Lake, performed by ELP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUXKfTxU7Ss&feature=youtube_gdata_player ) Paraphrased.

Lyrics:

He had white horses

And slaves by the score

All dressed in rags

And kneeling by the door

 

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

 

Traitors and villains

They made up his bed

And gold under mattress

On which he was laid

 

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

 

He went to start wars

For gluttony and his kin

For fake honor and fake glory

He would sin

 

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

 

A Headsman had found him

His blood ran as he cried

No fiat money could save him

So he fell down and he died

 

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

Ooooh, what a lucky man he was

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:48 | 5547050 pitchforksanonymous
pitchforksanonymous's picture

Chicago Fed Reserve bank - Biggest Bank vault in the country bricking up windows on first floor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VczkTD2AHM

Getting Nervous Mr. Yellen?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 23:53 | 5547394 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Last quarter America's GDP came in at a strong 3.5% but the fact that a 10% jump in federal spending, mostly on Pentagon hardware bolstered growth and was very much behind the numbers.

This "pre-election" spending was the biggest increase in federal spending since 2009 when the Obama administration put in place a huge economic stimulus package.

When you mix in an upbeat November number concerning job creation, falling oil prices and ever higher stock market prices and new record highs and many people have the impression we are on a roll.

The American and world economy is in uncharted water and weird crosscurrents are clouding our economic future. The truth is if this market is as over extended and distorted as many people think a crash may occur at any time. The article below delves into some of the many crosscurrents at work that could bring the economy to an abrupt halt.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/12/crosscurrents-cloud-future-economic.html

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 01:38 | 5547557 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Whats the unadjusted employment number ? Jim Quinn said it was -270k and retail sales had the 3rd biggest seasonal adjustment.It's all lies now,before believing something it might be a good idea to try and verify.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:03 | 5547754 bescobar
bescobar's picture

I CANT BREATHE....I CANT BREATHE

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