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Paying Down The Debt Is Now Almost Mathematically Impossible

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Exactly 199 years ago, in 1815, a “temporary” committee was established in the US Senate called the Committee on Finance and Uniform National Currency.

It was set up to address economic issues and the debt accrued by the US government after the War of 1812.

Of course, because there’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government measure, the committee became a permanent one after just one year.

It soon expanded its role from raising tariffs to having influence over taxation, banking, currency, and appropriations.

In subsequent wars, notably the American Civil War, the Committee was quick to use its powers and introduced the union’s first income tax. They also detached the dollar from gold to help fund the war.

This was all an indication of things to come.

Over the subsequent decades there was a sustained push to finally establish the country’s central bank that will control money and credit, as well as institute a permanent income tax to feed the expanding aspirations of government.

They succeeded in 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed and the 16th Amendment ratified, binding the country in the shackles of central banking and taxation of income.

Over the century that followed, the US has gone from being the biggest creditor in the world to its biggest debtor.

Decades of expanding government programs, waste, endless and costly wars, etc. have racked up such an enormous pile of debt that it has become almost impossible to pay it down.

A lot of folks don’t realize that, since the end of World War II, the US government’s total tax revenue has been almost constant at roughly 17% of GDP.

In other words, even though the actual tax rates themselves rise and fall, the government’s ‘slice’ of the economic pie is almost always the same - 17%.

I’ve worked out a mathematical model which shows that, even with absurd assumptions (7%+ GDP growth for years at a time, low interest rates, etc.), it is simply not feasible for the US government to ‘grow’ its way out.

Default has become the only option. And that could mean a number of things.

They could default on their creditors (other governments like China who loaned money to the US government). But this would spark a global financial and banking crisis.

 

They could default on the Federal Reserve, which owns trillions of dollars of US debt. But this would create an epic currency crisis for the US dollar.

 

They could also default on their obligations to their citizens—primarily to future beneficiaries of Social Security (who collectively own trillions of dollars of US debt).

 

Or they could choose to default on their obligations to every human being alive who holds US dollars… and engineer rampant inflation.

None of these is a good option. And simply put, the US government has reached a point of no return.

I aim to demonstrate this to you in today’s video podcast episode. It’s a very sobering realization.

Join me to see it for yourself:

 

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Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:54 | 5545345 dbTX
dbTX's picture

The Rubicon has been crossed.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:58 | 5545360 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

I wish I could erase my debt by burning down my neighborhood....next up, WAR! kiddies...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:57 | 5545365 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

oooooooooo

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:00 | 5545379 ACP
ACP's picture

Confiscating all the money bankers stole the last 6 years would pay down well over half the national debt.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:01 | 5545390 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Cancelling the debt held by the Fed would take care of the rest.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:14 | 5545457 max2205
max2205's picture

But I am sure EBT WOULD GROW

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:17 | 5545465 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Paying down the debt became mathematically impossible when the first dollar was borrowed under our pure fiat system.  Don't confuse the point at which the problem becomes acute with the point at which the problem actually started.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:50 | 5545606 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

But what about all the natural resources the US Gov owns.  thats got to be worth 100's of trillions.  I'm sure GS can figure out a way to do a LBO so they don't defualt and heaven forbid can't tap the international credit markets

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:01 | 5545642 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Anyone who even talks about paying down the national debt has no idea how our money system works. To pay off debt is to decrease the money supply. In other words TRUE deflation and not the CPI nonsense deflation that central bankers track. To contract the money supply by $17 trillion would send commerce and the econmy into a frozen death pit.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:24 | 5545738 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

Let's just print the money to pay the debt off.  I recommend 8 - $10 Trillion Dollar - notes.  It will get the presses ready for hyper-inflation.  It was good enough for Germany, dam-it, it is good enough for US.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:40 | 5545826 Publicus
Publicus's picture

There is no need to pay off the debt, it's just a bunch of digits in a computer, and we have control of the computer.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:53 | 5545911 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

We indebted some folks.

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:15 | 5546940 aminorex
aminorex's picture

Simon post your spreadsheet!

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:37 | 5547019 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

When we print the first trillion dollar bill, the Kenyan's picture should go on it.   It's only fair.   I'll wait 2 years, buy a 55g drum of them on ebay for an ounce of silver, and wipe my ass with them for the next 10 years.  

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 21:43 | 5547037 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

more likely, they pay off the federal debt with them and pass the expense onto us with a 99% tax of everything

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:40 | 5547215 CH1
CH1's picture

pass the expense onto us with a 99% tax of everything

And the sheep will obediently line up to pay!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:49 | 5547227 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"more likely, they pay off the federal debt with them and pass the expense onto us with a 99% tax of everything"

By the time those suckers hit the street....and they will hit the street......there'll be 12 more zeros on the national debt.   And a Kenyan will get you a loaf of bread .... at least for  6 months.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:32 | 5547775 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

It will get you a loaf of bread for sure but don't forget that each loaf will come with a free obamaphone.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 13:17 | 5548226 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

"...Almost..."

Hahaha... and I've almost grown angel wings.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 19:58 | 5546723 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Do what Captain Kirk always did: Pull the plug!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 20:00 | 5546733 ShakaZulu
ShakaZulu's picture

That was Scotty's job.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:22 | 5547459 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

McCoy: "She's dead Jim."

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:03 | 5547115 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Nor do I have any moral obligation to pay this debt.  

Those that pruchased this debt have made some seriously bad investments-just like they did during the real estate bubble.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:16 | 5547159 IRC162
IRC162's picture

Jus' unplug da mothafucka 

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 10:39 | 5550057 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Stackers says "To contract the money supply by $17 trillion would send commerce and the econmy into a frozen death pit."

Fallacy!

As the debt would be paid down -- Instead of endlessly debasing the currenc, harming existing holders' purchasing power as fresh printing divorced those holders of wealth and redirected it to those who get to play with the fresh minted first (Blood Sucking Squid, et al), each unit of currency would regain wealth as old currency was contracted as debt was retired.   The  only difference between $ 0.75 bluejeans of the 1905 sears roebuck catelog and today is a century of Fed policy.  As debt retired, pennys would again gain relevance and those who actual earned their money the old fashioned way ( by exchanging value for value using currency as a medium) would find their purchasing power / wealth again protected from the bankster-looters.

Sure, with our systme as structured, we'd have to eventually de-tach the dollar fromm government debt, orwe'd be forced to consider an alternative currency -- perhaps gold and notes, like the days where this country lauched to unprecedented wealth. 

But before that'd happen, we'd need to also restore a lot of our lost liberty.  NeoConns and Progressives have too many wars to fight, most of which involves what's fundamentally a war on your right to say "no thanks" / Liberty.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:49 | 5545607 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

But what about all the natural resources the US Gov owns.  thats got to be worth 100's of trillions.  I'm sure GS can figure out a way to do a LBO so they don't defualt and heaven forbid can't tap the international credit markets

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:26 | 5546381 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

And WHO buys all those resources? - the holders of all the $US created out of thin air over he past decade... you'll have the bankers - and foreign holders of US debt converting their otherwise worthless oaoer nto TANGIBLE HARD ASSETS while the US taxpayer and citizen sees the little left in the US looted.....  Look at Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union - the country was bought up by the oligarchs at rock bottom pirces.

The rich end up owning EVERYTHING either way.......   with rampant inflation the holdes of $US convert their paper holdoings into tangible assets sa well - only at MUCH higher prices.  Better to pay 10x the price and get somethign tangible instead of getting stuck with worthless paper...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:27 | 5546382 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

And WHO buys all those resources? - the holders of all the $US created out of thin air over he past decade... you'll have the bankers - and foreign holders of US debt converting their otherwise worthless oaoer nto TANGIBLE HARD ASSETS while the US taxpayer and citizen sees the little left in the US looted.....  Look at Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union - the country was bought up by the oligarchs at rock bottom pirces.

The rich end up owning EVERYTHING either way.......   with rampant inflation the holdes of $US convert their paper holdoings into tangible assets sa well - only at MUCH higher prices.  Better to pay 10x the price and get somethign tangible instead of getting stuck with worthless paper...

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:31 | 5547477 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Psstt.

Wanna buy some shares in a well connected solar company?

Solyndra.

Spread the word.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 09:57 | 5547847 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

United States National Parks, for sale, cheap!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 19:58 | 5546728 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Good post Simon.

1801, look at 1801.

Banks and govt are the same thing. Two wings of the same butterfly.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 16:38 | 5548664 photonsoflight
photonsoflight's picture

Not butterfly, think vulture.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 02:02 | 5547575 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

I guess they didn't have spreadsheets then......yah, does it really take a spreadsheet to figure out our debt is long past the point of no return.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 11:16 | 5547971 Compwiz4u
Compwiz4u's picture

Indeed. The currency did not exist to pay back the interest on that first dollar, so more borrowing and debt was needed.

Derivatives were then used to continue the system but it is all crumbling now as the parabolic increase in debt reached its zenith.

The central banks are just trying to slow it down and hide it as best as possible.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 06:55 | 5549854 Jack Daniels Esq
Jack Daniels Esq's picture

Granted - so we cancel the $18T debt, clawback all Wall St profits, jail them, reboot America - which is what we should have done before TBTF Barry emigrated to America

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:35 | 5545545 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bastiat said: 

"Cancelling the debt held by the Fed would take care of the rest."

Agreed.  However, judging by the bailouts and the newly crammed Crony-Bus bill - they will default on obligations to citizens first, banks dead last.

The U.S. Government is "Of the Banks, By the Banks, For the Banks", and of course the corporations and insurance companies who the Supine Court deemed "individuals".

This means taxpaying citizens are the fatted calf's of the plantation owners.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 17:15 | 5545981 ajax
ajax's picture

 

 

"This means taxpaying citizens are the fatted calf's of the plantation owners."

Tax paying citizens may well be fat but their wallets certainly are not.

(By the way: 'calves' is plural for calf, my father was a dairy farmer ...)

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 04:10 | 5547651 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You are correct, thank you, "calves" is the correct plural form for fatted calf.

No doubt there are bankers rubbing their hands over the marbled fat in 401K's/IRA's and the Gold teeth of pensioners.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:36 | 5547779 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

But if you cut a calf in half, you'll have two halves but not two calves.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 06:11 | 5549837 Phil Free
Phil Free's picture

You can say that again.

 

Fast, three times ...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:05 | 5545410 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Cyrpess levy weekend cometh to the USA. The left has always wanted to 'redistribute wealth'. So have the Treasury send survival kits to its bankers, set a $400 daily limit on gold, and let the "one-time wealth tax on accounts over $100k", commence. How's that math work out?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:15 | 5545454 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Right wants to redistribute wealth, too.  Just differently.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:30 | 5546401 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The right lets corporate America pay NOTHING on billions of profits......

truth is that BOTH parties are the servants of wealth - a false dichotomy exists only to preserve the illusion of choice - thow the bastards out in alternate elections but NEVER get a REAL alternative to either.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 09:29 | 5547815 fastpilot
fastpilot's picture

"The right lets corporate America pay NOTHING on billions of profits......"

I think only a thief could object to that.  Corporations don't really exist.  They can't make a profit.  Only when the money goes into someone's hand does it become a profit to be taxed--the once it is actually earned by a real person.  It becomes taxable again when someone earns it and it becomes their income to be taxed.  Why lefty's are such fans of double taxation, I've no idea.

Oh.  Wait.  I know why.

 

They're theives.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:14 | 5545455 stewie
stewie's picture

"Paying down" the debt was never a goal.  Really, think about it.  You can issue an almost unlimited amout of debt at near zero interest, why would you want to pay it down with real production, EVER!?  I sure wouldn't.  Much better to squeeze that lemon for as long as you can then switch to lime when the world is sick to death of lemon juice. 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:26 | 5545513 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Yes, this. 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 09:04 | 5547801 Alex DeLarge
Alex DeLarge's picture

I will drink a pan galactic gargle blaster to this!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:23 | 5546367 Mepaulus
Mepaulus's picture

Maybe the Bilderburgers were discussing switching to lime (digital currency) and just how bitter it should taste. 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:39 | 5547780 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I order my Bilderburgers very well done. Charred beyond recognition.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 23:27 | 5547322 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

My new $100 dollar bills are such a pretty blue, I wonder when they will be red..

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:01 | 5547419 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"Paying Down The Debt Is Now Almost Mathematically Impossible"~

No, it isn't "mathematically impossible". But you won't like what will have to happen to get the job done. Cheer up though, nobody will like what has to be done. What was that old adage about a shared burden?

Oh yeah, "Misery loves company". That's it.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:18 | 5545468 Silky Johnson
Silky Johnson's picture

Kind of fun seeing the writing on the wall, while the rest of the plebs are scrambling to buy made in China garbage to place under plastic pine trees which are also made in China. The wake up call of all this bullshit is going to be a real motherfucker!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:04 | 5545661 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm assuming $50k because the math doesn't work at $100k.

Personally I've got stashes under $50k in four different countries, not perfect, but the best

comprimise IMO.

After my sister got crucified with her Cyprus bank account, you cannot be too careful.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:47 | 5547764 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Well, in the US the Deposit Insurance is up to $100k, so the assumption is only sums over that amount are fair game. The people resting in that assumption are willfully ignorant of how often and how fast rules can and will be changed in an "unforeseen crisis". For your sake, I hope you are correct in your 50% hedge.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 08:55 | 5547793 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Pretty sure it is $250k

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 09:54 | 5547844 Singelguy
Singelguy's picture

It doesn't really matter. For every $100k or $250k insured by the FDIC, the FDIC has only $330 to pay out. FDIC is just another smoke and mirrors, feel good program.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 09:51 | 5547842 mygameon
mygameon's picture

One dollar will be the limit on account to bail in. Two reasons.

1) there is only $25billion on reserve for the FDIC to "insure" trillions of dollars "deposited in banks".

2). We are mostly well conditioned sheep that are unwilling to roll the razor through street to hold those accountable to the last penny of injustice and suffering put upon the world.

IMHO, fiat in the bank is a foolish idea for any rational person with a pulse.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 10:37 | 5547901 Refuse-Resist
Refuse-Resist's picture

When 95% of Americans can't even dream of saving up that much money, I think the overall reaction will be "So What? The NFL playoffs are on".

Obama: :Yeah, we robbed a few folks".

 

To thuderous ovation of the Free Shit Army. Reminsicent of Nazi Rallys circa 1938.

 

The American 'cultural revolution' is coming, as is the'great leap forward'.

 

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:01 | 5545366 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Speaking of math...

If a total population is 27,773, and the average score for
the population is 1641, then for a Normal Gaussian Distribution, what is the
expected % of population below 1494?  Assume the low score is a zero, and
the high score is a 44,820, if you need to do so.

The traditional ZH Pastrami Sandwich for the first correct response, showing the work, with an explanation.

This is a double or nothing opportunity for you, Sleigher.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:10 | 5545436 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I'm sorry HH, but zero-bounded distributions with such a high maximum should not be modeled with a Gaussian/Normal distribution.  A LogNormal would be more appropriate.  If you accept this premise, I would like to enter this contest.  I haven't had pastrami in years and I don't know why.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:17 | 5545467 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Deal.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:14 | 5545710 McMolotov
Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:37 | 5545773 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

It is fairly common for my customers to come to me with questions that can't be answered directly with the data provided.  We talk about what they really want to know to solve their problem or get their result.  We talk about the  possibility of collecting more data, but in the end, I work with what they give us, make some assumptions, apply my best tools and experience, and heavilly caveat the answers.

HH:  You should try fitting your data to a LogNormal curve with a mean of 1641, a median of about 1,100 and a standard deviation of about 1,800.  The maximum value was really the only description of the moments you provided.  We like to call these "outliers" and they aren't very useful for describing the body of a distribution.  Never the less, using Oracle Crystal Ball, running 27773 cases, with the default initial seed value of 999 on latin hypercube sampling, you get an answer very close to what you specified.  All that said, about 65 percent of the population scores below 1494.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:49 | 5545890 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Thank you.  Let me know where I can call in your lunch order.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 17:27 | 5546110 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Consider the answer partial payment for your many excellent posts.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 17:34 | 5546173 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

You are too kind.

Peace be with you.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:32 | 5547329 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hmm, I get a pretty different answer: 41% of the population should come in under that 1494.  50% come in under mean, so a lower score would be less than 50%.

My work:

-- 1641 - 1494 = 147

-- 147 / 1641 = 0.0896 (z-score)

-- P(z<1494) = 0.50 - 0.0896 =~ 41%

(Using Standard Normal Curve Areas)

41% seems about right as well.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 23:15 | 5549439 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

As I said earlier, a normal distribution should not be used to represent a zero-bounded distribution with such a high maximum.  Otherwise the mean wold be disproporonately affectedby the hgh values and there would need to be be very, very many zeros to compensate

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:13 | 5547147 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

I hope you are working for the good guys.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:42 | 5545574 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Speaking of math...

Your numbers don't make any sense, and in your example the sample size wouldn't matter..

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:03 | 5545647 centerline
centerline's picture

The numbers would produce results inconsistent with the general concept of a normal distribution (50% at the average).  That is, scores lower than average would be achieved by more than 50% of the population.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:43 | 5545583 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

After seven and 1/2 million years of thought the answer is... 42

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 23:39 | 5547355 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

And let me say; thanks for the fish..

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:26 | 5545515 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Would be fun to watch those B of A foreclosure "technicians" (known for entering and cleaning out the wrong properties)  show up to do their "contract work" and the whole block is cinders after a SWAT raid gone bad (SWAT called in on probable cause that someone on that block had a hangnail and refused to trim it)

Makes for good local news ratings.

Wake me up whaen the real insanity starts.

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:57 | 5545361 813kml
813kml's picture

Nonsense, Uncle Sam just needs to get a second job.

Maybe some day labor or a bigass paper route.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:58 | 5545369 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

How about double or nothing?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:05 | 5545411 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Maybe it's time for that jubilee thingy. Please let me know if you are gong to do it so I can rack up my credit card, refinance and buy some more useless stuff. I like that Lexus commercial. Maybe I would buy one of those bows and hook it to my tax return in april.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 17:59 | 5546289 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Sounds like a badass drink.  I will have a debt jubilee please!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:20 | 5545485 lester1
lester1's picture

Its not impossible, but it would take balanced budgets, tax hikes, and spending cuts and about 40 years for the debt to be gone.

OR

A massive economic crash happens and the dollar plus our debt is gone. We go to a one world currency where debt is not allowed. You either have the money or you dont !!

 

DEBT/GUILT = SCHULD !!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:30 | 5545767 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Credit is the problem not debt. Never lend property you dont own, thats what credit has become, like a bar tab that never gets paid only rolled over to the next month. Mythical property for a mythical world.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 11:31 | 5547997 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

I think you missed one of the main premises of the article....no matter what .gov does, it gets 17% of GDP in revenue. So, tax hikes will not yield more revenue.

 

Next up, is this why .gov wanted to play with the GDP calculation? To try and inflate it so they could get 17% of the inflated number? If so, I don't think this is exactly going to work out the way they planned (haha, I know this is not the reason, but wouldn't put it past a large majority of the pols to think this....).

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:44 | 5545868 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Inflating away the debt is not really an option anymore.

The off balance sheet liabilities are probably five times the acknowledged debt with outstanding bonds.

Those promises of future benefit payments are inflation adjusted.

Inflation will grow liabilities five times faster than it will devalue the bonds issued.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 02:21 | 5546434 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Should we factor in derivatives also?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:39 | 5547489 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

> The Rubicon has been crossed.

Better than crossing a rubby Conure - "Fluffed and Rubby" usually translates to "significant beaking action"

(Along with much excited screaming!!)

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 20:48 | 5551708 Oscillation Ove...
Oscillation Overthruster's picture

More like the buck has been passed

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:54 | 5545346 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
China publishes rules to pave way for trust insurance fund

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/us-china-trust-idUSKBN0JQ0RG20141212

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:57 | 5545348 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Which is why both parties will continue to raise the debt ceiling in perpetuity...

The situation explained (beginning around  12:30):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0

 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:54 | 5545352 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

This article is almost useless

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:56 | 5545355 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:08 | 5545373 813kml
813kml's picture

Neil deGrasse Tyson explains the Bankster Big Bang.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:17 | 5545466 max2205
max2205's picture

We are all going to get the big bang

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:40 | 5545834 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

Or maybe the big whimper.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 23:42 | 5547364 Calmyourself
Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:08 | 5545427 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Hey WB, you make it look like these people as dealing with astro physics, but really more like assho psychics.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:09 | 5545429 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

My God, it's full of wars.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:13 | 5545448 centerline
centerline's picture

Best post of the day right there.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:18 | 5545472 stewie
stewie's picture

+infinity on that comment. Brilliant.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:12 | 5545437 localizer
localizer's picture

PONZI EVENT HORIZON - LMFAO!

Takes a genius to come up with something like this, keep up the good work, mate!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:11 | 5545441 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

I can't see all those pics because all the adds are in the way.  Those big blue columns on the right of the page cover up a lot of content, and make the site less enjoyable.  

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:19 | 5545478 pods
pods's picture

A little birdie told me there is now an adblock extension for Chrome. :)

pods

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:25 | 5545505 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Also, you can right click; and either open the image on another Tab, or view the image itself.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:18 | 5545477 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

^^  Black Friday added, nice touch.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:47 | 5545598 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Would white friday be racist?

What if the White House was painted pink for Obama?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:26 | 5545510 Me.Grimlock
Me.Grimlock's picture

Holy shit that's awesome!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:42 | 5545571 noben
noben's picture

Many experts used to think that this (financial) Universe would end in the Big Crunch, where the expansion slows down, stops and implodes in on itself.

But now, thanks to the discovery of Dark Matter and Dark Energy, they are quite certain the the opposite will happen, and this (financial) Universe will end in the Big Rip.

Aren't you feeling the effects of the Big Rip yet?  Wait a while, you will.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:26 | 5545744 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Pull my finger!" -- Yellen

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:58 | 5545942 delacroix
delacroix's picture

that's a big condom.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 17:13 | 5546029 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

With all that "invisible" Dark Matter, and "invisible" Dark Energy, the Big Bang theory was already experiencing severe "credibility strain".

Now, more good evidnce is emerging that spacetime is essentially flat, i.e. our Universe is unboounded (infinite). http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/174427-astrophysicists-create-the-first-accurate-map-of-the-universe-its-very-flat-and-probably-infinite

Seems others too think the BBT has more to do with dogma than demonstrable science - http://cosmology.net/BigBang.html so maybe it's time for the "Academic Superheroes" to eat humble pie, and formally apologise to Fred Hoyle (now deceased!) and Chandra Wickramsinghe.

Not holding my breath on this event . . . . .

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:51 | 5546481 Hobo Sapien
Hobo Sapien's picture

^^^This.

Good to meet another Heretic/Rational Person on here.

and WB7- you regularly knock them out of the park, but this one's my favorite. So far.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:06 | 5547424 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Hmm, infinite universe almost like it was designed..

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 01:07 | 5547524 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Could very well have been designed - maybe the "usual question" - by WHOM, could be more beneficially changed to "by WHAT", which opens up a host of other interesting possibilities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/7972538/Are-we-living-in-a-designer-universe.html

 

http://archive.wired.com/wired/archive/10.12/holytech.html

 

http://www.simulation-argument.com/

 

100 years ago we had the abacus, slide rule, and computational tables. Today we have significant computing equipment (fast processors, fast storage), with highly effective software systems, offering many tens of trillions of floating-point operations per second. What will our capability be in a further 100 years' time (assuming we survive our petty squabbles)??

http://www.fromquarkstoquasars.com/the-kardashev-scale-type-i-ii-iii-iv-v-civilization/ (and we are a VERY long way from even a Type 1 civilisation, "Folks"!! )

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 18:20 | 5546359 F22
F22's picture

+1000 wb7

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 19:40 | 5546671 ShakaZulu
ShakaZulu's picture

Michael Douglas defines the point of no return:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jZ3Ve14bbo

from "Falling Down"

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:55 | 5545356 rejected
rejected's picture

a few 10 trillion dollar coins should do the job,,, hell, why not? Couldn't be any more stupid and insane than what they're doing now...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:55 | 5545357 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Payment was never intended. Inflation at some point is intended to devalue dollar values until trillions would be easily payable.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:59 | 5545370 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Exactly.   Gov debt is nothing more than a stealth tax by inflation.   The original mechanism (interest rate on bonds) used to be a check and balance on the system, but this mechanism is no longer relavent due to treasury/banking/fed relationships.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:45 | 5545588 noben
noben's picture

"stealth tax by inflation".

LOL.  Why don't we just call it what it is:  "THE WEALTH TRANSFER MECHANISM.  From the 98% to the 2%."

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:58 | 5545367 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Hindenburg omen?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:03 | 5545398 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Hymieburg Omen.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:10 | 5545438 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

I like it.  Hymieburgers for all.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:28 | 5545521 Me.Grimlock
Me.Grimlock's picture

"Don't let me down, Hymietown." - Jesse Jackson

 

</guitar solo>

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:12 | 5545372 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The debt is only $18 trillion and growing at $1 trillion a year.  Unfunded liabilities are at least $130 trillion and rising at $7 trillion a year.  That works out to debt and unfunded liabilities of $1,270,000 per taxpayer and rising at $68,700 per taxpayer per year.

So the chance that the US ever pays down its debts and unfunded liabilities, except in hyperinflated dollars, is less than zero.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:26 | 5545508 nobodysfool
nobodysfool's picture

ok, my check is in the mail...I"m out!  I'm jsut a peckerwood who lives in the hills wuth too many guns...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 22:28 | 5547189 pgroup
pgroup's picture

Ya got one of dem underground stills? Bet your local lake has lots of little buoys floating on it.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:35 | 5545546 Overfed
Overfed's picture

It took 403 days to tack on the latest trillion. I'll bet a stack of shiny that it won't take 403 days to tack on the next trillion. The one after that will take even less time yet. Exponential function, bitchez.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:25 | 5545750 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Math is an absolute bitch!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:05 | 5545375 mattgallis
mattgallis's picture

This is why you own, and hide, gold bullion.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 14:59 | 5545378 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"Almost" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Not debt.

Getting a politician to be honest about anything is almost impossible. Paying down the national debt is not only impossible, I agree with the comment above - it was never ever meant to be repaid.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:14 | 5545452 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

The serial down-voter must be back. John Boehner, is that you? Harry Reid, maybe? Dick Cheney?

Inquiring minds want to know!

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:00 | 5545383 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

To even bring up paying off all the gov't debt in a debt based monetary system is a joke. 

 

 To pay off all of the debt in a debt based monetary system is similar to having an economy that uses gold as money; millions of contracts written with gold as payment, millions of daily transactions done in gold, all of peoples savings held in gold, and some brilliant politicians saying we need to gather up all of the gold, put it on a ship (it would easily fit by the way) sending it to the middle of the ocean and sinking it in the Marianas trench with no way to recover it.  How do you think that economy would do going forward?  Do you think I’m being overdramatic saying millions would perish?  This is what I hear when I hear politicians saying we should pay off our national debt or balance the budget when I know there is little to no chance of the private sector picking up the slack in creating new loans.  Not that private loan creation would be the solution it would just postpone the inevitable.  If we accept that the longer a credit created boom lasts the larger the crash will be, it must be considered that we have been in the current boom for over 70 years. 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:14 | 5545458 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

Great comment and exactly what MAKO was talking about back in 2010.......

at what point would .gov print debt free money.......?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:17 | 5545474 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

MAKO?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:23 | 5545504 pods
pods's picture

Long time poster who opened many eyes about the farce of paying off our national debt (money supply).

pods

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:47 | 5545556 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

Thanks. Sounds like a smart guy, granted the concept is pretty simple.  Considering how simple the concept of not being able to, net, pay down debt in a debt based monetary system I am amazed at how many people in this country push for it.  I am all for the government, and economic participants in general, living within thier means, but any thought of the govt paying down its debt, particularly in todays environment must be done in the same breath as a monetary overhaul. 

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:53 | 5545616 Usurious
Usurious's picture

Mako mainly talked how money (debt/credit) was created  and how bad the crash would be.......I shit myself right out of the matrix on one of his comments back in 2010......he still posts here, but under a different name.......I have many of his comments if you would like to read them.....

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:07 | 5545680 pods
pods's picture

My guess was that Mako came back as:

http://www.zerohedge.com/search/apachesolr_search/landotfree

But I didn't recall mako being quite so fond of mentioning "unfunded liabilities," but they both spoke exactly about how our debt system was merely an exponential function.

pods

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:53 | 5545818 Usurious
Usurious's picture

bingo........

this was the first article I read on ZH.....the entire thread is facinating

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/karl-denninger-explains-foreclosure-gat...

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 00:27 | 5547470 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Miss Mako. Helped to free my mind, won't go back no matter how the steak tastes..

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 23:50 | 5547391 Hulk
Hulk's picture

LOL, "I shit myself riht out of the matrix" Gotta remember that one...

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:23 | 5545498 Thisson
Thisson's picture

You're being overly dramatic.  Debt is unnecessary to an economy.  An economy can function on equity investment rather than debt investment.  That is to say, new projects can be funded by savings (forgone consumption) where the investor obtains an equity interest in the new enterprise being funded, rather than a debt interest in said enterprise.  The capital structure of an enterprise does not alter its valuation.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:27 | 5545519 pods
pods's picture

Funny, we were approaching that point in the late 1800s, where excess capital was being reinvested and banks were becoming less and less relevant.

Enter into the panic of 1907, Jekyll Island, the FED and the rest is history.

pods

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 16:48 | 5545882 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Right you are, pods.  And the banks that were being used for business loans were small, community banks charging fair interest, not compound interest.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:32 | 5545541 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

I would agree if we did not have a debt BASED monetary system, but until we switch to a different monetary base my above comment is not over dramatic.  Debt is what has driven our economy for the past 80 years and will be the cause of its downfall.  

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:38 | 5545555 Usurious
Usurious's picture

ironic, aint it?

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:02 | 5545384 Thomas Aquinas
Thomas Aquinas's picture
The Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx - fifth plank - to ensure control of government "Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly."
Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:07 | 5545422 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

The thing is, we don't have a national bank. We have an un-Federal (i.e. not national) Federal Reserve system.

Nice try, though.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:21 | 5545491 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

true, but some would like to have a national bank. Bill Still advocates for that in his movies about the Fed, I believe.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 07:53 | 5547748 artless
artless's picture

@Tsar Pointless

Nice try.

Sematics. No they don't use the word "national" but try setting up a competing currency.

Or operating outside the cartel. It's a central bank and it is the source of the massive debt/ponzi scheme upon which the edifice of the state is built.

It is Marx's wet dream.

Fri, 12/12/2014 - 15:02 | 5545393 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The "debt" is not designed to be paid back. It is designed to enrich the banksters.

The only way to pay it back is to guillotine the banksters.

An American, not US subject.

 

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