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Treasury Yields Are Crashing-er
The entire bond complex has come under pressure here with 2Y through 30Y all seeing yields jerk lower. 10Y and 30Y yields are back at the flash-crash Bullard Lows of Oct 16th... as yet another squeeze of record Treasury Shorts blows the minds of every talking head on CNBC...
From the close of the day when Jim Bullard saved the world!!!
explained by this.. .the asset class that stumped everyone in 2014: Treasurys.
10-yr T-notes
Large speculators strongly increased their net short position to -$16.3bn from -$7.5bn notional.
Bearish. The Dec-01 Outside Bar and impulsive break of 2.227% points to
further gains to 2.404% and beyond. Below 2.227% indicates stalling;
bulls gain control below 2.150%
Actually, not "bearish" but "short coveringish"...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Bullardish!
Hide your FRN's motherfuckers!!!! Soon enough you'll realize you can't hide them.
Dont fight the FED!
that includes tha Chinese Central bank for those traders who do not know it yet ....
everyone is begining to realize the emperor wears paper clothes and a major storm front is blackening the sky.
I got nothing.
Then you got muppeted so you are "Muppetish."
Ah but you make the asumption I had anything to begin with.
The only winning move is not to play...
I got nothing too, but my pseudonym is about the unbearable lightness of treasuries, and so it is my duty to say something, in this case nothing.
We Muppetized some Folk.
But but but I heard bottom was in 2 hours ago.
Off the lows! Sidelines! Green shoots!
i thinks the fed is finally trapped. print moarerest, and bonds reverse, sending yields much higher which is horrible for all the massively over leveraged corporate balance sheets that issued debt at 0% to buy back stock and pay dividends. or they dont print moarerest, and stocks/commodities crumble, but bonds rise and yields continue to fall. so, will the fed pick stocks over bonds for the FIRST TIME EVER?
They can't.
Don't worry the Fed nearly owns everything and when they do everything will be A-Ok!
And so is oil. Broke 61, 60, 59, and now 58 all in the last 24 hours. DEFLATION. It's all around us, except in the SPX of course...for now... http://www.alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2014/12/jingle-bells.html
If this had anything to do with speculators, why are yields in all safe haven country bonds crashing faster than ours? There is no short speculation on those bonds, only ours.
If it weren't for the futures market simply being a (failed) mechanism for the NY FED, primary dealers and hedgies to short treasuries, our yields would be on par with Germany's.
Bond markets do not lie. Prepare for S&P to decline.
a close on the 10yr below 2.10% opens the path to hit 190 bps on the yield. 10yr has already hit 128 in price -
Intraday Technical Outlook
As of TYH4 @ 127.00 USH4 @ 144.15
Security
Level 1
Level 2
Outside
10yr Resistance
127.13
127.19
127.25
10yr Support
126.22
126.17
126.12
Bond Resistance
144.31
145.07
145.15
Bond Support
143.29
143.22
143.15
We're going down.
This shit is about to get real.
Minus 2.5% on the DAX at the moment? I guess some people are starting to panic....
FTSE having a 'mare too. If it breaks 6000.....
Having been very long US Treasuries for the past 12 months, my main worry is about being too greedy and not getting out at the right time. That said, I see no reason why the 10yr should not fall below 2.0%, and stay there for a while.....especially since the S&P500 has still not corrected in any meaningful way. Once that happens, and I'd be looking for at least a 20% drop, then I will reduce my long position by a large percentage.
Meanwhile, I'm off to Starbucks to treat myself to a short cup of drip coffee....again!
+1 for shorting bonds: -1 for patronizing starbucks and thinking that it's cool.
Don't worry, I take my second cup (the one they use for heat for short cups) and fill it with milk......meaning I get a free cup of milk with my coffee. Hence, I'm not patronizing starbucks!
.
Long TLT with avg basis at $113 - :)
How is free credit bad for equities?
Same goes for free energy I might add.
Plus the value of that dividend stream is simply off the charts right now with the dollar going through the roof.
Move to Venezuela and live like a King just on your trading position in McDonalds....
I keep a big core position in TLT and trade etf hedges around it.
It is a Merry Christmas this year.
Amen brutha
I just sold at 126.25. 1.3% gain for the day - nice!
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go all-in against Treasurys when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha... [/vizzini]