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This Time May Not Be Different After All

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago, after seeing Barron's latest cover, we said : "This time is never different.... unless, of course, one acknowledges apriori that "this time is different" thus making this time, er, different? At least that is the logic according to the latest headline-grabbing edition of Barron's which observes that with the Nasdaq approaching 5000 again, "fears have been raised about the possibility of yet another market collapse." But fear not, because "this time it's different"..."

 

Seven days later, it remains to be seen if market bubblemania on the back of central bank multiple expansion can thrive, especially as corporate cash flow (and revenue, and GAAP EPS) growth trickles to a halt, coupled with an energy and junk bond market implosion, but when it comes to Barron's covers top-ticking the market, it is never different.

 

Finally, as Ashraf Laidi reminds us...

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:38 | 5548921 MisterX
MisterX's picture

Propaganda is the executive arm of the invisible government

http://www.philiacband.com/propaganda.html

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:24 | 5549053 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I wish these ***king Tyler(s) would stop talking the market down!  LOL!

Barrons is so shitty.  Remember when they were pimping GM-Obama-UAW's IPO and it tank like the piece of shit it is.  LOL!

F Barrons!

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:40 | 5548925 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

They may use a different type of razorblade strap on as they ass rape you...

Then it would be differnt this time, technically.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:03 | 5549010 Arnold
Arnold's picture

 I- strap on.........er..........wait don't post that

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 02:59 | 5549716 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

 Well, "There maybe an App. for that" . . . .

As for the Android application - "PLEASE Don't try this at Home" (or anywhere else, for that matter!!) ;-))

(terrible thoughts along the lines of the Cybermen are coming . . . . )

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 13:19 | 5554224 bpj
bpj's picture

strop

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:49 | 5548927 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It's a good thing that the banking/finance sector would never think about levering up on the short-side to crash the markets and make a killing since Congress certainly must have made that kind of vulgar muppet-rape illegal by now.

Besides... the ensuing derivatives holocaust would gaurantee that they never saw a penny of their ill-gotten gains.

Unless the government did something stupid like put itself on the hook for their fraudulent derivative transactions...

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:53 | 5548982 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

We put some folks on the hook for 303T notional in derivatives for the TBTF, sure.  But they do God's work, and we congresscritters have placements to care for.  

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:01 | 5548994 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Well since it's 'God's Work'... I'm sure there is nothing that a couple billion in post-Apocalyptic bank fines to these fine folks can't adequately handle...

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:09 | 5549021 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

& the 'God's Work' doing bookmakers are also CASHING IN on Army covering vs. Navy today.

 

 

Nice gig if u can get it.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:53 | 5548983 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

We put some folks on the hook for 303T notional in derivatives for the TBTF, sure.  But they do God's work, and we congresscritters have placements to care for.  

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 22:27 | 5549380 spqrusa
spqrusa's picture

CONgress has legalized the muppet rape and exempted themselves from insider trading amongst other things. It's all a big club and you are not in it. When will the peeps figure out that CONgress, POTUS and SCROTUS are completely powned by the agency? Oh wait - even if they knew they cannot do anything about it. Haha. Guess the joke is on us.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:41 | 5548930 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Valuation: $##B
Revenue: ($###M)
Fanaticism: 1000%

The composition of a successful Internet company.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:45 | 5548950 813kml
813kml's picture

You're missing a minus sign next to revenue but otherwise spot on.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:48 | 5548961 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

An amount enclosed by parentheses represents a negative quantity in accounting syntax.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:54 | 5548969 813kml
813kml's picture

Ah yes, wasn't paying attention, usually just look for the red ink.

Might need to update my monochrome monitor.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:00 | 5549004 gmak
gmak's picture

Bullish for GDP!

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:00 | 5549005 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

No worries amigo, it's not like accounting matters in today's fairy numbers world anyway.

Simple replace E with VCFL (VC Funding Left) in _BITDA, and everything is A-okay.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:21 | 5549039 813kml
813kml's picture

Ha, judging from the down arrows looks like I irritated some anal CPAs.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:18 | 5549040 813kml
813kml's picture

dup

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 20:04 | 5549142 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Whoo hoo.  The dude can skate plus he knows accounting syntax and knows how to value fine Silly Con Valley companies for maximum valuations.  ;-)

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 04:48 | 5549798 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I'm an engineer by trade, but I got a mini MBA in the form of a minor at college. All the essentials - accounting, marketing, case studies, playing consultant... good stuff to know. Had been watching the markets since I was little, having read newspapers my whole life. The college classes just put official words on what I already knew.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:41 | 5548934 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Next weeks Barons headline: Dow 40,000.

Loaf of bread:$500, in the small print.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:50 | 5548966 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

and we'll need the bread for helmets.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:10 | 5549027 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Speaking of which...

Kaiser rolls make for effective ear protection but it's hard to be taken seriously as a street warrior when you look like Princess Leia.

Better to go with a small Chibatta loaf.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 20:05 | 5549144 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Add Alan Abelson's name to the people who should be swinging from a lamp post with Cramer and all the elites.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 01:45 | 5549671 weburke
weburke's picture

He has been gone for a while now. August 8 2007 he wrote a very good analysis of what the problems were. And his analysis was not new to his writings, and was quite complete. His humor and co-writers had good humor.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:43 | 5548938 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

This time we will have tweets and twats.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:45 | 5548947 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hear,hear.

Plenty of twat.

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:46 | 5548953 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

instead of just twats

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:15 | 5549035 Hulk
Hulk's picture

tweet your twat, if you got em...

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 11:00 | 5550118 zeroheckler
zeroheckler's picture

tweak some twat

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:43 | 5548946 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

99.9% of the US population has their face in their smartphone and the earbuds blasting some American Idol reject. You think they're paying attention to Cromibus

Think about it- Clay Aiken almost won a seat in congress. Fuck me

This country is so fucked

I m going out to get a steak burrito and was it down with a bottle of Absinthe.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:45 | 5548952 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Reported to fishy.gov, attackwatch.com, and OFA headquarters.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:49 | 5548967 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Remember Ronald Regan?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:53 | 5548980 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

He was a big fan of Burritos and Absinthe?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:46 | 5548954 Silver Bullet
Silver Bullet's picture

I miss my absinthe days...good times.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:15 | 5548974 813kml
813kml's picture

The Green Fairy is a special way of washing the cares away.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 03:07 | 5549722 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Wormwood being the key ingredient.

Chernobyl = Wormwood (in the local lingo)

Interesting co-incidence??

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:58 | 5548997 mrpxsytin
mrpxsytin's picture

I know alcohol prices are down so I can believe the absinthe, but a real steak burrito?

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 05:16 | 5549816 Ginsengbull
Ginsengbull's picture

What happened to ebola?

 

Did it die when Fergusson rioted?

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 12:09 | 5550272 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Is he a Libertarian? If so, I would have voted for him.

But, since he is in show biz, I doubt it.

I WOULD vote if Bocephus ran, for any office.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:54 | 5548987 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Can't wait for their, "End of the Age of Oil" or "Gold is Dead" article.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 18:58 | 5548993 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Andre Rieu - La Vergine Degli Angeli (Maastricht 2008)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd2MF2IGC_g (4:02)

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:04 | 5549011 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

The Oily Swan has arrived, Cromnibus is in place, corrupt bankers everywhere will soon have survival kits for us to take from their dead bodies....

Check. All set for the Apocalypse

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:05 | 5549014 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Crash ! This time its different. Of course it's different, it's a different Crash !

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:07 | 5549017 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Corporate profits keep the ruling elite in power, but profits are left only after accounting for:

1. Cost of goods sold

2. Cost of capital

3. Cost of labor

4. Cost of energy.

 

They have engineered a system where all the impediments to increased profits have been decimated:

1. commodities dumping

2. money relatively worthless (ZIRP)

3. wages dropping in real terms

4. energy now hammered.

 

This is in addition to direct corporate injections by the FED and other Central Banks through stock market manipulation, they have gone "all in".

To quote Lindsay Crouse in The Verdict, "Who were these men?"

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:50 | 5549112 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

ALL those variables asssume there are sales to begin with - no sales no profits and that is where this is going

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:10 | 5549022 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

A crash just cannot be tolerated.

We need to Bullard some folks.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:09 | 5549023 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Barron's LOL, they ran a bullish piece on BBG a couple weeks back... down about 40% since - these guys are good!

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 21:37 | 5549320 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Someone has to do it.  They were probably well paid for that piece of mularkey too.  Buy steel!

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 05:06 | 5549810 Otrader
Otrader's picture

It's a zero sum game.  Money isn't made or lost, it's simply transferred from one illusion to another. 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:35 | 5549064 will ling
will ling's picture

with the banksters and their political cronies tryin' to put the taxpayers on the hook for their deriviatives losses with this legislation this crude crisis weekend, gotta wonder, do they know somethin' we don't?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:32 | 5549068 arby63
arby63's picture

The Damn crash is under way. No way out now. It's  too late. Wages are in the shitter. Health care out of control. ZIRP. Foreign Policy made by infants and juveniles. Food inflation going crazy. Higher education? LOL. Mulato far as President. Drunk as Speaker. Crook leading Senate. Banks writing law. Supreme Court reminding us of Weekend At Bernie's. U.S. cities broke. Police State. Common Core.

 

Should I go on?

 

It's on. We are going down the rat hole. May the Farce be with you.

 

 

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:33 | 5549075 will ling
will ling's picture

sigh.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:38 | 5549089 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

hmmm....beef sammich sounds good, with some of them curly fries..

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 21:31 | 5549308 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Aussies I talk to still are confident that the power of compounding interest on their Super accounts means an early retirement in 20 years for them, I ask them what about zIRP and just receive a blank look back, a few surprises to come I think.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 03:16 | 5549736 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Assuming of course that we're all still alive in 20 years time. Becoming an increasingly unlikely scenario now the Neocons are "in Control" . . . .

 http://www.globalresearch.ca/washingtons-master-plan-world-conquest-madness-defines-us-policy/5419708

 

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 09:11 | 5549947 sheikurbootie
sheikurbootie's picture

Same same in "Merica".  I'm surrounded by idiots!  I ask friends in their 30's-60's where do you think the money will come from if rates remain near zero?  Crickets.... It's all PFM (pure fucking magic) to them.  My older friends (70's) do understand and agree that this will end badly.  I'm amazed the media doesn't talk about the artificial stock re-purchase (buy back) plans that is all BORRROWED money.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 00:30 | 5549593 Prober
Prober's picture

Wishful thinking - there is a long, long, long way yet to fall. USA politicians in the words of Doc Holliday:

"I have not even begun to defile myself."

You will have to be very much more patient, the end of the Regime is many decades in the future.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 05:04 | 5549807 Otrader
Otrader's picture

I agree.  As long as people play, this will continue for a long while.   Wall St. also received a clean brand new checkbook to cover their losses going forward.  The dumb taxpayers will continue wishing their 401k and home price to go north at any cost. 

"Honey, I think we deserve a vacation!  And, according to zillow...."

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5549958 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Remove your head from your arse, unless you are talking butterfly decades.

The current paradigm doesn't even have ten months left in it.

The only think that can prolong the agony is WWIII, but even that will not save it.

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:52 | 5549122 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
Something is very wrong: Lowest labor participation rate ~40 yrs, Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession And that's WITH our housing & stock bubble 2.0.   http://investmentwatchblog.com/something-is-very-wrong-lowest-labor-participation-rate-40-yrs-americans-are-40-poorer-than-before-the-recession-and-thats-with-our-housing-stock-bubble-2-0/
Sat, 12/13/2014 - 19:54 | 5549125 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sure, pick on twitter, that's just so easy (and lazy, and uncomplicated). i can think of a few OLD corporations that after many decades in business have nothing but high debts and high dividends to pay with no hope of ever being solvent. what is their excuse?

Sat, 12/13/2014 - 22:57 | 5549425 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

They want us to fight back.

 

Don't.

 

Fight.

 

You don't need too.

 

It's dying already

 

Just let it finish.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 00:44 | 5549612 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Sometimes I think that the operating assumption is this: hyperinflation would wipe out almost all the world's perceived wealth, anything short of that counts as a win. Then I realize they aren't even seeing the possibility of hyperinflation and none of it makes sense again.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 09:35 | 5549964 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hyperinflation is usually  the result of a political decisions.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 03:29 | 5549743 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If the market was going to go down it would have gone down when Greece was going to default. The markets are FED software applications and have nothing to do with price discovery from buying and selling stock. The FED allows stocks to be traded as an auxilary function of the software so there appears to be real stock markets.

Is Greece going to default?

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 07:07 | 5549861 winchester
winchester's picture

technically she is again in hidden default, months back they flown another 2 billion € on markets...  stuff never was fixed.

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 08:46 | 5549932 Racer
Racer's picture

Don't tell me ......it is different because stocks are on a permanently high plateau

Sun, 12/14/2014 - 12:17 | 5550290 Ewtman
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