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Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next
In space, no one can hear you scream... unless you happen to be Venezuela's (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE's Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output "even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel" and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.
In doing so, OPEC not only confirms that the once mighty cartel is essentially non-existant and has been replaced by the veto vote of the lowest-cost exporters (again, sorry Maduro), but that all those energy hedge funds (and not only) who hoped that by allowing margin calls to go straight to voicemail on Friday afternoon, their troubles would go away because of some magical intervention by OPEC over the weekend, are about to have a very unpleasant Monday, now that the next oil price bogey has been set: $40 per barrell.
Luckily, this will be so "unambiguously good" for the US consumer, it should surely offset the epic capex destruction that is about to be unleashed on America's shale patch, in junk bond hedge funds around the globe, and as millions of high-paying jobs created as a result of the shale miracle are pink slipped.
According to Bloomberg, OPEC won’t immediately change its Nov. 27 decision to keep the group’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, Suhail Al-Mazrouei said. Venezuela supports an OPEC meeting given the price slide, though the country hasn’t officially requested one, an official at Venezuela’s foreign ministry said Dec. 12. The group is due to meet again on June 5.
“We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Mazrouei told Bloomberg at a conference in Dubai. “We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself.” He said current conditions don’t justify an extraordinary OPEC meeting. “We need to wait for at least a quarter” to consider an urgent session, he said.
And with OPEC’s 12 members pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, exceeding their collective target for a sixth straight month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait this month deepened discounts on shipments to Asia, feeding speculation that they’re fighting for market share amid a glut fed by surging U.S. shale production.
The above only focuses on the (unchanged) supply side of the equation - and since the entire world is rolling over into yet another round of global recession, following not only a Chinese slowdown to a record low growth rate, but also a recession in both Japan and Europe, the just as important issue is where demand will be in the coming year. The answer: much lower.
OPEC's unchanged production level, a lower demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency further put the skids under oil on Friday, raising concerns of possible broader negative effects such as debt defaults by companies and countries heavily exposed to crude prices. There was also talk of the price trend adding to deflation pressures in Europe, increasing bets that the European Central Bank will be forced to resort to further stimulus early next year.
And while the bankruptcy advisors and "fondos buitre" as they are known in Buenos Aires, are circling Venezuela whose default is essentially just a matter of day, OPEC is - just in case its plan to crush higher cost production fails - doing a little of the "good cop" routing as a Plan B.
According to Reuters, OPEC secretary general tried to moderate the infighting within the oil exporters, saying "OPEC can ride out a slump in oil prices and keep output unchanged, arguing market weakness did not reflect supply and demand fundamentals and could have been driven by speculators."
Ah yes, it had been a while since we heard the good old "evil speculators" excuse. Usually it appeared when crude prices soared. Now, it has re-emerged to explain the historic plunge of crude.
Speaking at a conference in Dubai, Abdullah al-Badri defended November's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to not cut its output target of 30 million barrels per day (bdp) in the face of a drop in crude prices to multi-year lows.
"We agreed that it is important to continue with production (at current levels) for the ... coming period. This decision was made by consensus by all ministers," he said. "The decision has been made. Things will be left as is."
Some say selling may continue as few participants are yet willing to call a bottom for markets.
There is some hope for the falling knife catchers: "Badri suggested the crude price fall had been overdone. "The fundamentals should not lead to this dramatic reduction (in price)," he said in Arabic through an English interpreter. He said only a small increase in supply had lead to a sharp drop in prices, adding: "I believe that speculation has entered strongly in deciding these prices.""
Unfortunately for the crude longs, Badri is lying, as can be gleaned from the following statement:
Badri said OPEC sought a price level that was suitable and satisfactory both for consumers and producers, but did not specify a figure. The OPEC chief also said November's decision was not aimed at any other oil producer, rebutting suggestions it was intended to either undermine the economics of U.S. shale oil production or weaken rival powers closer to home.
"Some people say this decision was directed at the United States and shale oil. All of this is incorrect. Some also say it was directed at Iran and Russia. This also is incorrect," he said.
Well actually... "Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi had told last month's OPEC meeting the organization must combat the U.S. shale oil boom, arguing for maintaining output to depress prices and undermine the profitability of North American producers, said a source who was briefed by a non-Gulf OPEC minister."
And as Europe has shown repeatedly, not only is it serious when you have to lie, but it is even worse when you can't remember what lies you have said in the past. That alone assures that the chaos within OPEC - if only for purely optical reasons - will only get worse and likely lead to least a few sovereign defaults as the petroleum exporting organization mutates to meet the far lower demand levels of the new normal.
In the meantime, the only question is how much longer can stocks ignore the bloodbath in energy (where there has been much interstellar screaming too) because as we showed on Friday, despite the worst week for stocks in 3 years, equities have a long way to go if and when they finally catch up, or rather down, with the crude reality...
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Almost at crush depth now!
Rivets popping out of bulkheads..
I said $35 last week. Time will tell.
I know right now I am buying the SHIT OUT OF physical AU.
Chavez's gold to be repatriated to NY in a matter of days to pay off the economic hit men
Check this out --
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq0ykF2mHgQ
lol
Would like verification, but this vid indicates Chicago Fed has bricked up first floor windows:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VczkTD2AHM#t=22
High Yield energy junk and Shale are just necessary collateral damage in this proxy war defense of the petrodollar against Russia, and eventually China.
History and the US 5th Fleet tells us that Saudi/Opec have always been, and are, America's bitches, and the only response they have to US policy directives are "yes um, right away suh"
this is all BS to hurt russia, the shit will go down until russian swift alternative is ok in may to request other money than dollar to be paid for oil/gaz.
then you know what happen, usa make oil x4 to go back 100$+ to get what been lost during winter, russia is out of control of usa forever, usa prevent dollar collape mid 2015 because of fiat gap A.K.A devaluated dollar like crazy versus phyz gold backed rubble by going full retard in ukraine as a decoy and war up to 66% probability fall 2015.
forget arabs, reduce the equation to the essential USA + EUROPA vs RUSSIA
opecs/arabs are pawns.
So the banks will swap to get their fdic coverage, oil plunges triggering the derivative blow and we pay for, no one goes to jail.
Martin Armstrong just wrote that his computer has singled out next week as a pivotal week for a long time ... how convenient to disclose it now ... well ...
Possible ukraine false flag nuclear detonation after the next military push by Ukraine. http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/is-ukraine-preparing-for-nuclear-... just shared for flavour.
$40 oil. lol. Odouchebag, with his dreams of everything powered by unicorns harnessed by gubmint, has gotta feel like puking.
Such sweet irony.
LOL, "Aftermath", LOL.
collapse in demand that coincides with the highest US consumer sentiment in recent history?
I think someone's blowing sunshine up my ass
Community Organizers everywhere are cheering the cheap gas to power their Escalade’s to-and-from Walmart and Popeye’s.
In the last 2 weeks, I saw 2 hummers, driving infront of me in traffic, not in other lanes. I haven't spotted a hummer in a year+ before that. The consumer is consuming.
.
I saw Jamie Dimon on the road throwing out $100 (crisp) USD's. It must be a good year coming....
I agree the sheeple are oblivious to everything except the price at the pump.
As for me, I'm cheering the flipping ruskies, for being the only, ONLY ones with the balls to stand up CALL this INTENTIONAL shit storm GW Bush & many others have insisted upon.
And by the way, Russia & China & Turkey~~~they don't give a shit what the fake capitalist market price is today or tomorrow~~~
wwxx
Consumer sentiment - taken exclusively from the employees of HFT's and TBTF banks
When I read the Armstrong computer prediction last week, it was calling for Oct 1, 2015.
http://www.edthatmatters.com/understanding-martin-armstrongs-dates/
agree with all of that....but the question that must be asked related to the first comment is what is the actual "crush depth" for Russia?...$40 oil is going to crush a lot of entities including several nation states and a good chunk of the S&P 500.
My suspicion is that we'll know where Russia's crush depth is in advance by the large white mushroom clouds over Chicago, DC, NYC and Tel Aviv.
That is not something to wish on anyone being americans, russians or whoever ...
The ZWO always gets what they want, and they want a war with Russia.
They're giving Russia the same treatment as Iraq or Syria. It' isn't going to fly.
There will be no non nuclear war with Russia.
When the white flashes appear, just remember who caused it.
Russia will not nuke foreign cities except in kind. They will use tacticals that create barriers as a defensive measure. Anyone who doesn't see by now that they take very measured steps is blind.
Putin is one of the richest men in the world. Worth billions. His closest friends must be worth close. Still can't get a handle on whether Putin is a NWO actor or he is the real deal. Anyone?
My suspicion is that we'll know where Russia's crush depth is in advance by the large white mushroom clouds over Chicago, DC, NYC and Tel Aviv.
.... or not....
there is -after all some silver lining in the collapse of oil price....
those muslim countries who have supported terorists.... including the rise of ISIL may change their minds when their oil does not pay as before... then again.. i am speculating here.... (as much as everyone here at the fight club)...
because... the games played are of very high stakes and unless you have direct knowledge to what really is going on... (which i highly doubt anyone at zh has)... it is all speculation -best guess...
sort of a ... fart in the dark... [to see who really is behind you]
;)
White mushroom clouds ... followed by 200 Russian cities being wiped off the face of the Earth.
Granted the US would also be mostly destroyed.
Mostly? What happens when all those nuke plants go critical as a direct result?
Mostly, as in every human being and every building will not be destroyed.
Ahh. but you still have those pesky nuclear energy reactors that might need maintainance...
let alone Kim Kardashian
Well I think if the landscape is cratered with hundreds of high-yield nuclear weapons it really isn't going to matter if a few reactors go up. Quite a few will probably be in the blast radius anyway.
How does the USA "make" oil go up?
The same way they make stocks go up.
keyboard strokes my friend...
Stop buying it.
TROLOLOLOL:p
fyi :Ruble Consolation Gets Putin Record Oil Income .
It might be an economic attack on Russia, but it also might be happening to trigger derivative implosions to Western banking scum thus kicking over a few of the shaky cards holding this crap pile of economic lies together. We shall see...
Or there could just be unintended and unforseen consequences of whatever it is that is being done by whoever to whomever for any number of reasons. I'm just guessing that big plays like this must have many ripples, much like dropping a mountain in Lake Superior. There would be negative affects felt across all the Great Lakes and no, I would not want to live in Chicago.
What if Vlad bet the other side of this shitshow?
That...would be chess.
If anyone has been paying attention to how Vlad operates the last 15+ years, you know that's exactly what he did!!!
King Faisal was furious at the US for supporting Israel during the 1973 "Yom Kippur" War, after being promised by Nixon that the US would not be involved. His response was an immediate oil embargo on the US. The CIA assassinated him for it less than two years later. No Saudi king since has forgotten who their master is.
Ignatius
Thanks for that. I've been in that building, it's built like a freakin' fortress. Seriously.
The winds of shit are blowin'...it's time to haul in the jib before it gets covered in shit.
On a related note I keep wondering if Russia is ar least partly behind the price drop. The meme is that the price collapse might be directed at taking them down but if the price drop takes out the Western financial system they come out a winner. Russia will weather the price drop but if they can spark a fire under the derivatives tinderbox they won't have to worry about the US military much longer. Just wondering.
Interesting concept. I've been thinking the lighting of the "derivative tinderbox" would be the unintended consequence that will bitch slap the western financial system. Kind of an "oh shit" moment.
Satan has the rising interest rates card up his sleeve and he's already down in GA
IMO, that's why the drums of war are beating. The dollar is on its deathbed. Russia is more than willing to speed its passing. While the timing of the prognosis is uncertain, the outcome is not. Politicians and cronies have to be feeling the pressure right now. They have to be feeling desperate to hold on to what they have, and are I don't doubt that they will be stupidly ruthless to keep it. The problem is, war or no war, the dollar dies. Do you want people starving and rioting when this happens, or do you want it to go up in a series of mushroom clouds? I'll take the rioting and starving, personally, because when the dust settles I won't have to be careful about where I grow my crops. When the dust settles from mushroom clouds, often we call it fallout.
Never say never when talking desperate people. It's why we could, in fact, get WWIII out of this. To any "elites" reading this, just let it go. You'll be doubleplusfucked when the MIRVs start raining down, because if you survive, and I survive, I will remember your stupidity and draw a knife across your throat should I encounter you.
The dollar is on its deathbed and Russia is more than willing to speed its passage? Now that's contrarian thinking, with the ruble crashing against the dollar every bit as fast as oil.
Russia's soverign debt load is much lower than ours. I'm betting that Russia can weather this for longer than we can. Short term trends are not always indicative of the final outcome. The Ruble is declining in value. The USD is going to face a loss of faith in its value. The former is very bad for Russia. The latter is catostrophic for the US.
I agree that Russia's low sovereign debt load will help them weather this, but I'm not so sure about how the USD will respond. The yen is collapsing, and once the depression reels it's ugly head again, it is possible, if not likely that one or more(possibly as many as 4) countries leave the euro, which will cause a break up, and a loss of that currencies value. Once those two currencies are no more , people are going to be looking for (perceived) safety. This will likely mean a flight into dollars, not rubles. Cleanest dirty shirt and all.
They're already fleeing into dollars if the rising dollar is any indication. A lot of people who hold USD denominated assets are going to get burned. A junk bond crisis in the energy sector that is big enough to spark a wider junk bond crisis will likely spiral out of control. Junk bonds are used to fund stock buybacks. Debt levels here are astronomical and who knows how many OTC derivatives are hooked into all of that? The options at the Fed will either be to let a lot of companies fail, or to fire up QEULTRA® (or some other printing scheme) in a way that makes the previous incarnations of QE look like a firecracker next to a daisycutter. How many people holding USD denominated assets got burned in 2007/2008? How many times do they have to get burned before they say "to hell with this?"
IMO, its the cleanest dirty shirt because it was rinsed off with naptha and not allowed to dry.
Russians are pretty used to hard times and severe punishment … the Merikan FSA isn’t. If the FSA isn't fed a donut or McSlim every 30 minutes, they starve to death.
Shut off the EBT for 1-2 days and there will be riots in every major American city. The Russians have plenty of good hackers.
TopCoder rankings:
http://community.topcoder.com/tc?module=AlgoRank
Rus are normally 20 to 30 of top 50.
Recently more Chine have placings.
Russians have been through shit that its unimaginable for Americans. Their memories are filled with death and deprivation - coming from the outside AND from their own leaders. Tens of millions died under Stalin and during WWII. A good part of western Russia was rubble. After the collapse of Communism the ruble imploded and pensions turned into dust
Younger Russians may not have personally experienced the worst but their parents and grandparenst have - and the memory remains alive. The US has not had any REAL deprivation for...... only the South really suffered in teh Civil War - and that has long passed from long term memory. Even the Great Depression was not cause for mass starvation and death - times were hard but nothing like what Russians were going through at the same time.
Be honest - most Americans ARE soft, lazy and spoiled. Most have NO IDEA what real suffering is like and will gladly support any tyrant that offers them food and shelter if (when) the shit really hits the fan. Has been the pah of tyrants for millenia. Cause pain and suffering (behind the scenes) and then offer yourself as the 'solution'.
Or capitalize on pain and suffering by offering yourself as the solution. Hitler didn't cause all of the pain and suffering that led to his coming to power, but he did capitalize upon it. We need to watch out for tyrants whether the pain and suffering was caused by something not related to the tyrant or if it was caused by the tyrant either way.
:-0
CRowd???
Hoocoodanode?
Is that you?
Uber-nerds?
I found you?
It's me! Pearl!
I was lost! I didn't know where you guys were. I looked everywhere. It was very scary out there without you.
"The USD is going to face a loss of faith in its value. " That can only truly happen domestically have you met the idiots that populate this country. The media complex is too strong our ignorant population is a MAJOR strength of the PTB i nthe US.
Yeah, but don't forget about those 12-14T dollars sitting in central banks all around the world. It's when those come flooding back stateside (because they don't want them any more) that things head south on steroids. Like Volker said years ago, the dollar's life rests on confidence.
The US will be bought up lock stock and barrel by all the foreign owned dollars IF we allow it. The holders of paper $ will gladly pay ANY price for hard assets to retain some value. Better overpaying for soemthing than owning nothing. And that will be the only option left to holders of dollars - nobody else in the world will want them for anything but - unless the US blatantly defaults - they WILL remain legal tender here. So..... sit back as the US gets sold out from under its own citizens.
Those trillions will make for one hell of a bidding war on.. well, EVERYTHING. And Americans will not be able to compete.
All the predictions of Jefferson and Jackson come true - the land Americans worked and fought for will be bought out from under them.
Russiaian thinking is playing Chess...America Checkers...
reminds of the old saw, about taking a knife to a gun fight
well said
the ruble is also not a fiat supporting all sorts of fictional, ridiculous structures
Russia is also not Iraq and the last time I checked, they have a few weapons left - metal and financial
Russians are tough SOBs and the countries that attack them usually run out of steam
the world is RAPIDLY realizing they should not trade their goods and services for silly paper with pictures of silly men
Thanks for putting that early in your comment so I could stop reading!
Smart money is fleeing to Russia.
LMFAO
Money doesn't have to flee to Russia for them to help out. Just imagine if Russia tacked a 20% surcharge on all dollar transactions for oil and gas, but made deals in other currencies without the surcharge. It wouldn't even have to be the Ruble or the Yuan, just anything but the dollar.
Don't remember it as stupidity; it was sociopaths' greed. If you mistakenly think it's stupidity then you may end up pitying them.
Good hunting. Change that handle to El Carnicerito.
Being a sociopath and being stupid are not mutually exclusive. The smart ones know that, so long as they plan long term to keep the populace fat and healthy, there is more to skim. The dumb ones will unknowingly take a path that leads to mushroom clouds.
As long as we have a source of fuel, the US Military is a threat. Would you really be surprised to see oil and gas nationalized?
Should that happen, I suspect the psychos who control the US and it military-industrial complex will "pull a Samson". You remember the tale of Samson? If it is going down, EVERYBODY IS GOING DOWN. All it takes is a launch code book and a set of keys.
Gentlemen (scumbag parasite criminal moneychangers),, prepare to defend yourselves.
This is US Saudi smashing Oil/USSR part Deux and nothing else
If that's so, it's a desperate move, considering the collateral damage:
USA: end of fracking boom - collapse of junk bond market
Canada: most oil investment is US based.
Mexico: serious economic fallout - potential flood of refugees headed north.
That's just for starters.
If the aim is to destabilize Russia and effect regime change, what does that mean for China which already has energy deals with current regime and stands to lose big if western aligned regime takes power? Bear in mind, China is the number #1 holder of US treasuries. More than enough to lend dollars to Russia to close any budget gaps that emerge from current low oil price - payable down the road in gas and oil at discount.
So, US attempt to hurt Russia pushes Russia further into Chinese camp? Who saw that coming?
Another excuse for more quantitative easing. These mofos know the dollar will lose the status, so they are milking the cow as much as they can one last time.
ebear demonstrates another historical truth, the empire, near its end, desperate, stupid and arrogant, stretches what lttle is left of its "friends" until that snaps
What will China accept from TPTB to stay neutral? Can Russia beat the offer?
If the offer is Russia's oil, it get's interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsgwcDOGJQY
even if they add 3/8's steel plate and a watermelon, it ain't going to help em...
@Haus-Targaryen
How ironic that these lib-tardian/statist actors whose heroes cause these problems can talk the talk but they can't walk the walk.
Hope, Hope and Change!!!
Tyler, did you write this scene?
@Haus-Targaryen: wow that's crazy , different intelligencia are known to use movies to talk in silence to each other! Wow...
Speaking of Gold...Jim Willie might not be so crazy after all.
http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/dgcx-plans-to-start-russian-rouble-...
An oil marketplace also begins in Jan 2015.
Of course Venezuela's gold will be moved to "safety".
But it'll be to NY, not to Moscow or Beijing, because the former is more proactive and timely than the latter two.
If Venezuela had any brains and sense, they would initaliate it relo to safety, before it goes to NY forever.
In the final analysis, a People truly do deserve what they get.
Good for you, Haus-Targaryen. But cash will be king, before the gold bubble.
Anyway,
Saudi GDP's: 50% dependent on oil revenues... and Saudi’s oil production is declining
United Arab Emirates GDP: 40% dependent on oil revenues…
So, why are they feeding the propaganda of cheaper and cheaper oil? Something that we don’t know is being orchestrated behind closed doors.
Here is the Crux of the problem:
Oil peaked in 2011 at about 70 Million Barrels per Day (MBpD).
2014: 68 Million Barrels per Day (MBpD).
Note: Part of this new production wasn’t just new fields, but also ‘Enhance Oil Recovery’ (EOR) methods.
So, the world oil (standard) rate of decline of 5% was delayed.
Now, what will happen when 3.5 MBpD (5%) of oil starts to decline, annually?
Where will you find 3.5 MBpD? ....…. Just to keep even.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/World-Less-US-N-O-Less-US.png
Saudi wants to crush Isis crisis
I looked into that, because Dubaibanker wrote about it, but it makes no sense because Saudis will need all the money that they can get to keep their population off of their throats. Saudi’s King increased welfare after 2011 Arab Spring. And the lower the price of oil goes, it only exacerbates their demise.
I think this price drop is an US desperation in generating some real growth in the US and not inflation growth. As well as to kill the BRIC, because if the BRIC becomes successful, the Petrodollar (US Empire) will be finished much sooner.
So, Saudi Arabia, and now Emirates, are just following orders, I believe.
Is the Saudi Arabia King the next Muhammad Anwar El Sadat? ...... The black swan that will trigger the meltdown.
Anyway, things are happening really quickly and we, at Zero Hedge knows that the outcomes are unpredictable.
And I mean, unpredictable in a bad way.
http://history.stackexchange.com/questions/1070/did-reagan-really-conspire-to-drop-oil-prices
The Saudis have a very large 'war chest' of USDs saved up for a rainy day. They can use this war chest to weather the lower oil price storm, and they are betting that this money will be able to keep their peasants fat and happy long enough to weather the low price storm. Essentially, they can weather he storm longer than The higher cost of production countries(mainly US shale) can remain solvent in sub 50$/barrel territory. Once this supply is shut down, price will go back up, but even once these wells become profitable again , it's going to take a long time before people are willing to invest in it again.
The Saudi's are driving U.S. oil companies out of business. They will then buy the companies and cut their production. They will control more oil and the price.
Greenskeeper_Carl
I hear you, and I can see myself agreeing with your statement .... BUT,
It is always the unintended consequences that get you.
The crux of the problems:
a) US economy is deteriorating pretty badly. Cheap oil helps.
b) BRICS economy are growing; and growing independent of the US dollar. And that’s bad for the US. Bad for US business, bad for US financials, bad for US dollar, bad to finance US debt…. And the list is long.
c) Saudi elites want to collect rent by installing United Arab Emirates oil and gas pipeline through Saudi Arabia. Syria and Russia are in their way. Europe needs United Emirates oil and gas, otherwise, it will go to Asia.
Solution:
BRICS (Putin) can not succeed. So, wars on the board of Russia in hope of a military Coup D’état in Russia. As long the war stays in Europe, America wins.
If that succeeds, then, we will see military Coup’ D’état throughout South America and in Syria.
Then, because China will be isolated, and heavily polluted, to save face we will see “US-China” Global Warming and Energy Solution for the entire universe.
Ooh la la! There’s your king dollar….. Wrapped is so many bullchit that it will make your head spin, in total disbelieve.
Your analysis assumes that the US can engineer a Coup in Russia.... that is very uncertain.
Not that it will succeed; but that is what US is trying.
Russia, if left alone, will not attack anyone. What can not happen is for Russia to succeed financially. That can never happen. No room for two.
If US fail, there will be a (European) war at the Russia boarder that might lead them to nuke each other; especially if US loses an aircraft carrier.
The misjudgment that will lead to WW-3 will come from the US, eventually.
“United States is becoming a failed state, and thus a danger to its own people and the world.” – Noam Chomsky, 2006
Escrava,
Has IRQ's Production been brought into the picture? They've been neutralized for the most part by the USA and now ISIL(ISM/ILV for the ISO-3). IIRC, they've had one of the cheapest extraction costs per barrel (during the 1st Gulf War Period); and I've heard that one of the outcomes of this LONG_WAR was to control its Fields (as rights granted under Saddam Hussein were parceled off by Sith Lord Cheney).
"If" - and it's a big "if" - IRQ/ISIL were able to fix up their Infra and ramp up their production "might" be able to offset the 3.5Mbbl decline for a few years (I don't recall the IRQ's reserve numbers).
Thanks to ISIL, IRQ is now a Wild Card.
IronForge
Sorry, below is the whole article.
Patterson, the author of the article and charts has Iraq at 3.2 MBD
http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-2014/comment-page-1/#comment-461136
Dennis Coyne: Let’s say that Iraq actually has these reserves and eventually gets its act together, at a 3% depletion rate, it could produce 5 million barrels per day if reserves were 65 Gb.
I agree with Ron’s assessment that this is unlikely in the next 5 years or so, but if it ever happens it could help on the downslope after the peak.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-2014/comment-page-1/#comment-462412
Let’s leave ISIL for another day.
Thanks.
It's one big fracking mess over there now thanks to the USA/GBR involvement the First Gulf War(also the IRN Coup; but we pissed off one country then)... It was bad enough when IRQ and IRN were at War with each other. "
The USA's DOD spent nearly USD 8T on the Region over the decades. We could have built 2nd/3rd/4th Gen Nuke Reactors and drilled offshore for a fraction of that
Don't go full retard.
50% PM's,50% cash.
Buying the shit out of =/= 100%. I get Francs as well. :-D
Wait for the sale.... It will see 9XX before it sees 1500.... There is a liquidity crunch comming. Gold with everything else will be on sale. Once that flush happens, then, it will be up and away...
..........liquidity crunch?? As we live at the bottom of an ocean of fiat that has been sitting on balance sheets waiting to move since its conjuring I'm having a bit of difficulty following the crunch theory....... but then three dimensional chess was always a struggle for me
Yep, Gator's right: liquidity crunch is coming.
While the fed has created mountains of liquidity, it's all sitting at the banks as excess reserves.
If I printed up $10 trillion in $100 bills, loaded it up on pallets, and shot it into space, would that be inflationary? Of course the answer is 'no' because it's not in 'circulation.'
Same thing when the crunch occurs; only bankers will have liquidity; mere citizens only have debt, and (living paycheck to paycheck; until they're laid-off) will be scrambling for liquidity to pay their bills.
This will be the deflationary collapse as debts are defaulted on (deflationary: destroys 'money') and streams of income cease (workers laid-off: extremely deflationary).
Consider that our (official) national debt is now $18,000,000,000,000.00 and there is only about 1/10th of that amount in actual cash (M0: paper currency and coin) in existence.
The US Dollar is now not even backed by paper; it's all just 1's and 0's on a computer.
Indeed, when the crash comes; cash will be king...
Cash OUTSIDE the banking system will be king.
FIFY
Yes, I should have clarified: cash (i.e., 'dead presidents' in your fist) will be king.
Bank deposits will be confiscated, er,... 'bailed-in.'
Problem is, if you had $20k sitting in a bank and you went to withdraw it, the butthurt created would be epic. The IRS would get butthurt. The bank would get butthurt. The DEA and probably a few other alphabet soup agencies would get butthurt. The local LEOs would be delighted, however, and if they knew what you had just done, they'd be looking for any excuse to pull you over. You know, 2mph over the speedlimit, not letting your turn signal blink 5 times before changing lanes, etc... and you would get butthurt. We already have capital controls in this country. Soft controls, but controls nonetheless.
Whats to say your local bank manager wont call them up to let them know your name as you walk out of the bank with all that cash. I am sure the cops will know what car you drive and your route home.
Nothing says that they won't. If the butthurt is palpable, they might do it out of spite. If you do this, take the backroads back to your house and drive a couple MPH under the speedlimit ;)
Just do a quick hand-off to a family member or trusted friend outside the bank, and maybe a 3rd hand-off to a third person a short ways away from the bank. Lots of possibilities.
That's it I'm taking the Bus or walking.
Try wiring money to outside the US,You get the 3rd degree,in person,before they let you.
My european banks, I just go online and press a few keys, and done.
the United States is and will continue to be the BEST country in the world ... yes, we have our own problems, but compare to Europe ... please ...
Please reset the clock on your computer. It's off by about 40 years.
Arius seems to be trying to imitate MDB and his famous sense of surreal irony.
Either that or he needs to drink less Kool Aid, I'd say.
Don't be an alarmist. 20k is not that large a sum to walk around with. Yes, you would have to arrange the withdrawal with your bank/credit union a couple days ahead of time. But there won't be some manhunt for a little fish with a wad of cash. I personally know of at least three businesses that deal with that kind of cash. They carry it in one of those zipper pouches and walk around like it's no big deal. They are not pulled over by anyone looking for an excuse. The IRS doesn't give a shit nor does the DEA.
As as aside, I had sold a business a couple years ago and part of the deal was with 10k cash. I had no problem cashing a check, paying off one of my buddies and walking into another bank with "large amounts of cash" to fund another account. Same thing after selling a motorcycle for cash.
Maybe it's the part of the world you live in, but where I'm from (the butthole of Michigan - not Detroit however) I haven't had experiences that reflect your point of view.
I think a business which transacts this way normally is not as scrutinized. I know of one that does as you say. However, if I as an individual were to suddenly request such a withdrawal, I think eyebrows would be raised. So tactically, for a little ant like myself, small withdrawals over long periods of time work best.
No one will win (except the uber elite) in a scenario when cash is needed during an economic collapse. Argentina was evidence of this in the early 2000s.
Part of me shudders at the idea of having 10k in hand and walking into a bank and redepositing it though.
Miffed
Civil asset forefiture is on the rise in this country. If a business is dealing with cash, that business can presumably hire an attorney and cause all sorts of problems for the PD. If you're an individual, cops will say that large wads of cash are obviously proof of drug dealing and seize it on the spot. Then, if you want to fight it in court, it will be a case against the money, not you, and you have to prove that its your money. A majority of people don't even bother. They will often have to hire an attorney who charges more than what was taken for no guarantee of getting it back. The bonus? Much of the money goes directly to the PD, not to the general fund. In jurisdictions where this isn't allowed, they call the DEA, the DEA takes possession of the cash and then gives a very significant kickback to the PD. It's a loophole, and cops use it.
When the police pensions are cut they will just go door to door stealing whatever they want, since it's "their" stuff anyway.
When it gets to that point expect bogus traffic violation stops and 40 dollars to be on your merry way. The cops will augment their income quite nicely. Think about it. Ten such stops a day is 400 dollars tax free, in one hundred days they pocket 40,000 dollars tax free.
I am sure if you get caught with a DUI they will be more than happy to drive you to the bank for 2000 dollars forget it sum, and take you home.
It's like that here already, except $40 is actually about $400.
Deliberate fucking with speed limits, that are incongruent with road conditions and population densities, without warning (no 'lower speed limit ahead' signs anywhere).
They make a killing trapping non-locals who aren't aware of their scheme.
Then most of the people they pull over don't know that they hvae the right to refuse a search, and oftimes, the speeder also gets caught with contraband such as perscription meds in the wrong bottle, weed, paraphaneila, forgot to renew tag, forgot to renew license et al.
I'm more nervous seeing a cop car here than any thug. AT lesat I can defend my life and liberty from a 'thug'. But some thugs are more equal than others.
You guys and your cash is king are as bad as the guys who are going to stock their castles with virgins and single malt with their 5 oz of AU... You think their are no warehouses chock full of pallets of RED bills... Your cash in hand will be king for about 5 minutes then you can wipe your ass with the green stuff, welcome to RED... THINK
I've said this before (many times) and I'll say it again:
Cash,... Bonds,... Gold(& Silver)...
[not necessarily in that order...]
...lead'n brass, tools, seed and access to H2O...
If it plays out this way, exactly, cash will not save you, at least after about literally 3-5 days, new cash will be on the streets enforced by ptb.
Before I give a shit about PM's and cash (and believe me, I do) I concentrate on chicken meat, eggs and enough flower to feed my family bread for 6 to 12 months.
Which flower does your family find the tastiest?
Ok, ok, I up-arrowed your comment, but you should be ashamed of yourself, making fun of a poor EU-citizen who only started to learn English in high school. (see my reply to DanDaley)
PS: they prefer daffodils.
Just havin' a little fun... ;-)
[P.S. Daffodils are great, but please don't eat the daisies...]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W848X1bqEmY
Twolips. ;)
Sorry to hear you haven't already taken care of that.
I would move extremely quickly if I was you.
The collapse could come tomorrow, or next year.You best be ready for either case.
Don't forgetto add guns and ammo to your preps. lest someone relieve you of your supplies.
how about the collapse would never come??? alarmist have been saying doom and gloom for at least a good 40 years and more ... yes, it will happen sometimes in the future but not in our lifetime .. all is about making money on predictions ... scare tactics
Then you eat your oldest stocks first and replace them on a regular basis. Guns and ammo are kept for protection at any time a violent criminal may decide to pick your door.
At the very least, you will save fiat in the long run because you have to know that the gun you bought yesterday for $1K will be $2K in 10 years or less.
The collapse has been happening for 100 years and is till ongoing you blind fool.
I agree with you, but get some flour instead of flowers...more complex carbs.
LOL. English is not my mother tongue, so I sometimes mess things up. Thanks for the correction, I completely overlooked that one. And to WC: I've covered all that, thx, since I've been scared shitless for longer than I care to remember.
Just playing with ya...English is full of land mines like that...words that have 1 spelling but 2 meanings depending upon either of 2 pronunciations (Polish person vs polish shoes), and lots of words that have 1 pronunciation but 2 or 3 meanings (their/there/thery're).
My favorite screw-up is from Spanish:
¿Cuántos años tienes? (How old are you? -Lit. How many years do you have?)
vs
¿Cuántos anos tienes? (How many anuses do you have?)
One. Thanks for asking.
move along, nothing to seee here,
Arab Emirates can handle oil at 25$00people going from living on tent with camels in desert to climatized buildinds and bus stop with police driving lamborghinis can handle many things....
really? i'm sure. it's free. they drill, they pay the drillers nothing, the stuff jumps up out of the ground. this isn't fracking, there are no environmentalists insisting they do this and that to protect the environment. they have no restraints. i really think for arabia, it's basically free.
labor costs? come on. the pharoahs did away with that 4,000 years ago. anything changed?
I'm just a tradesman, so I'm not sure how much business I have even being on here. I have to admit that in the last month or so, I have completely lost the ability to "follow along." For the last couple years I have been able to keep up with these articles and their implications; but as of just recently, I'm not even sure which way is up anymore...
As an observer here more than anything, protection against the coming "changes" seems to include buying PHYSICAL precious metals, along with food, water, etc. All the best to you. I feel fortunate to be a ZH student.
You belong here if you're at least semi-sentient and aspire for greater awareness of the world around you, courtesy of people with unconvential views and analysis (albeit sometimes unconventional to a fault).
Just keep in mind when the time comes ( you'll know when) express your displeasure with all who threw you down the well (ptb, .01%, fed etal)
No longer rivets popping, it is weld seams splitting! Crush depth will most likley burst a pipe joint exposed to the pressure, before a pressure hull weld splits. In WWI and WWII it was rivets popping. Welding was then fast replacing rivets. The USN demands x-ray exams for all it's Submarine welds before they accept a new boat.
Haha. Hope it wasn't the same 'inspector' that inspected my multi layer tank construction welding. 2 years after putting them in service the welds away from the inspected areas failed. Only a cover pass (no root or multi passes like the specs said). Damn near a fiasco since it has PSM covered chemicals.....never bid cheap and always do your own inspections.....
The boomerang effect from this manipulated economic attack of mass destruction on oil will wipe us all out when oil goes to $200 within 18 months. Where the F is the pentagon?!?! This is an act of war against the U.S. So if this was designed by Obama he should be impeached and if it was OPEC Countries we should nuke the MF'ers and take control of their fields
42, surely.
Some folks were fracked.
well.... let's cry wolf.....
let's see what .99 cents/gal. will bring...
$20 hookers again?
Maybe I'm too young, but when exactly did 20$ hookers exist? In the 60ies?
You can still get some nigger lip in Detroit for $20.
Not exactly wolf of wall street hookers & blow, but....
You can find $20 action in many places in Latin America. Not the best quality, of course, but better than you may expect.
Anyone who has to pay for sex is a loser. Sorry.
Miffed
Anyone who has to pay for sex is a loser. Sorry.
http://www.pacdv.com/sounds/applause-sounds/app-7.mp3