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"Considerably Exciting" - Key Events In The Coming Week
The biggest event of the coming week is surely the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, when as most expect, will see the Fed's language shifting from "considerable time" to "patient." But while "most" also expect this to be the preamble toward Fed hiking rates in mid-2015, some disagree.
According to DB's Jim Reid, "the Fed want to be more hawkish regardless of any market volatility that we're seeing at the moment and any such actions might cause. When push comes to shove we don't think they'll find it very easy to raise rates in 2015 but they certainly might give markets a few frights first in signaling it. We'll know more about this on Wednesday as the all important FOMC meeting draws to a conclusion. Will Mrs Yellen drop "considerable time"? Will they base their thoughts on the +321k payroll print 10 days ago or the fact that the S&P 500 had its worst week in more than two years last week with the Oil sector causing problems in equities and worse problems in credit markets? Also 5yr5yr forward breakeven inflation has fallen 20bps since October and grabbed a lot of attention last week. So a lot to throw in the mix. If the Fed are hawkish this week then we know they are serious about normalising rates, even in the face of challenging market conditions and worries about low inflation. If dovish then we know they are only going to raise rates early if all the stars are aligned. So an important meeting for understanding how they'll behave next year."
So clearly this week's key event is whether or not Mr. Chairmanwoman will finally signal the break away from the graviational pull of ZIRP, or if, as has been the case for the past 6 years, she will "get to work."
Here is what else to expect via BofA:
And some more details from DB:
- Looking at the week ahead and away from the FOMC meeting we are off to a quiet start in Europe this morning with no significant releases although we do have the NY Fed Empire survey (Dec), industrial production (Nov) and the latest NAHB housing market index to look forward to.
- On Tuesday we have the latest flash HSBC manufacturing PMI from China which will likely be a source of headlines when we print the EMR tomorrow morning. Tuesday also sees flash services and manufacturing PMI’s for the Euro-area, France and Germany, the German ZEW survey, UK inflation stats, and housing starts/building permits from the US.
- On Wednesday we have the latest BoE minutes from the UK, final HICP prints for the euro area and CPI updates from the US although Greece will be one of the key macro focus for markets. The first of three possible parliamentary votes to elect Greece's new President will take place this Wednesday 7pm local time (Kathimerini).
- On Thursday China will release the latest property price performance for November whilst German IFO, the US weekly jobless claims, and the Philly Fed survey are the other notable releases.
- Friday morning's BoJ statement will be of some interest on top of the sentiment/confidence readings in Germany and France.
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"Greece becomes one more time the epicenter of this global class war arena. After the sudden announcement of the Greek PM for presidential elections on December 17, and the first choice of Stavros Dimas, a new circle of the propaganda of fear has started by the systemic establishment."
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/12/europe-get-ready-for-war.html
...Proxy WW#3 now in final warm up friends.
Will Russia supply Iran w/ nuclear arms or bomb Qatar to kingdom come?
xmas wishes....Peace and goodwill to all
And of course "the dr. is in"
This is ridiculous, a room full of has-been old men taking orders from white beard Yellen.
That combination right there ought to tell you we're screwed.
If the American public had had half a brain they would have thrown public servants of this caliber out, it's a disgusting place we've gotten ourselves into, there's really no way out. I just wish the real debacle would come quickly and now rather than the long slow drudge to the bottom of the pit when I'm fuckin 90 years old.
Go ahead hike rates, it's the last chance to do so before the yield curve turns flat at zero fed funds rate.
They can just say they've raised rates to -1%, all the financial media and analcysts would cheer for the brave action.
BofAML hey nice start to the weekly calls on that Empire Mfg number, no wonder you're a bailed out bankster darling!
Missed Empire Manufacturing
Next Indusstrial Output
That's exceptional! We've got to cool this blistering economy fueled by lower energy prices.
I'm excited.
Are you excited?
I hate it when I'm excited with nowhere to go...
I am creepy.
All wired up and no place to blow.
considerable time to patient .....
In this fucked up ....rigged casino shitty economy these are the words that will decide our fate ...
We are FUCKED.....MY KINDERGARDEN TEACHER USED BETTER WORDING IF I WAS GOING TO BE ASS RAPED!
Few things illustrate the absurdity of the current situation better than this bizarre focus on a single phrase the central planners might or might not utter. It looks more and more like we are living in a command economy.