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Empire Fed Crashes To Almost 2-Year Lows, Biggest Miss In 4 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Must be the weather, because lower gas prices is "unambiguously good" for everyone. The Empire Fed manufacturing survey collapsed to -3.6 from 10.16 , its lowest since January 2013, missing expectations of a rebound to 12.4 by the most in 4 years. New orders plunged and unfilled orders utterly collapsed from -7.45 to -23.96 or as some would call it, "unambiguously bad." The timing of this US macro data collapse could not be better for The Fed of course, which with the entire world reeling form a demand crunch (see oil) needs an excuse to keep lower-for-longer on the table, and even proceed with QE4 if and when needed.

Empire Fed crashes.

 

As the report notes,

For the first time in nearly two years, the general business conditions index signaled a decline in business activity for New York manufacturers. The index retreated fourteen points to -3.6 in December, with 19 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved over the month and 23 percent reporting that conditions had worsened.

 

Overall, readings for the headline index during the fourth quarter of 2014 mark a significant downshift in activity from the levels seen during the five-month period from May through September.

 

The new orders index fell eleven points to -2.0, indicating a small decline in orders, and the shipments index dropped twelve points to -0.2— a sign that shipments were flat. Th unfilled orders index plummetedseventeen points to -24.0. The delivery time index drifted down to -14.6, suggesting that delivery times were shorter, and the inventories index fell to -11.5, pointing to lower inventory levels.

Even Optimism declined: "The index for future general business conditions fell nine points to 38.6"

And kiss expectations for a CapEx surge (for the 4th year in a row) goodbye:  "The capital expenditures index fell twelve points to 15.6."

 

Of course, with the Fed desperate to find an excuse to get out of its "rate hike" channel, who could have possibly seen this coming? From yesterday...

 

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Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:39 | 5553086 ekm1
ekm1's picture

It is far, far, far, far worse than it looks.

 

This is actually very good data compared to reality.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:44 | 5553107 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

You do realize that we are actually in a depression right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNAehYI75tg

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:48 | 5553113 ekm1
ekm1's picture

You wish we'd be in depression.

Depression means, no up and no down.

 

USA and Western economies are spiraling down being in the hands of bankers.

Only Pentagon can fix the issue now and they are about to. Bankers are losing big.

 

I predict rebound by end of 2015, early 2016, only after Pentagon decimates the bankers. I am confident they will.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:53 | 5553142 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Dosen't the Pentagon work for the bankers?

It will be Hillary that saves us all...

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:56 | 5553160 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I think I just vomitted in my mouth....

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:01 | 5553186 B2u
B2u's picture

Oh...I projectile vomited all over my laptop.  My dog is cleaning it up now.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:19 | 5553269 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

That is a good way to describe the way banks interact with the Fed and Treasury.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:27 | 5553323 Stained Class
Stained Class's picture

FTMFW Quinvarius!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:57 | 5553169 knukles
knukles's picture

Would you like the Rose Law Firm lost records or Vince Foster Treatment?  Perhaps some Bosnian snipers?  Or maybe a shot of Benghazi action? 
Let me introduce you to good friend of the Clinton's, Ms. Monica Lewinski.  Oh and over here is her brother, George Bush.  By the way, does Hillbillary golf, too?  Why, I'll betchu she's love a couple rounds with Bill and Barry.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:40 | 5553377 ekm1
ekm1's picture

No. It is the opposite. Bankers tried to rule over pentagon, asking for pentagon's loyalty, later backstabbing pentagon with cuts via the white house.

 

It's over. Pentagon will decimate bankers now, after being backstabbed

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 12:25 | 5553929 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Skousen thinks it will be a republican placed in power that will take us into Thermonuclear war

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdAvn1jmZH4

Skousen has the best explanation (IMHO) for the shit show we are presently living...

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:02 | 5553116 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

All that matters is that Barry O & Jamie Dimon (Jew Diamond) get to the back 9 on time.

The Great Takeover & Capture of all 3 branches of government & regulatory agencies by BANKS continues unabated.

The Great False Left-Right Paradigm of "Choice" in operation...

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:48 | 5553129 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

The failed empire fed..

We don't need winter weather to blame, we have the Russians now..

 

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:59 | 5553145 knukles
knukles's picture

The Fed doesn't need any excuses to "further ease" as whole rafts of data point to a weary, miserable, bedraggled, demoralized and pitiful level of economic activity.  The problem is that all of "the data" have become so manipulated to the "good" side that the Fed needs real unmanipulated bad data to do what they think they need to do.
And oui voila!  Same conundrum as the olde Soviet Union which manipulated (or just plain manufactured nonsensical data) reality so much that nobody knew what the fuck was really transpiring.  And I mean, nobody.

If the economy was doing as good as the "Dark Forces" would have us believe, robustly responding to unprecedented level of monetary accommodation and fiscal stimulus (not) then there'd be talk of overheating, scarcity of employees for any and all jobs, nobody would give a rats ass about all the bodies flowing across the border, newly created business would be hiring left and right, everybody would be buying homes and cars , real after tax wages would be skyrocketing and....   Well, you get the picture.

We're not there yet, are we, mommy. 
No little Billy, we've got a long way to go.
Will I ever see a happy time, mommy?

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:38 | 5553369 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Oh baby momma can't do nothin, oh baby momma just aint here. Why worry about your brother, why worry about your mother, when the century city just had to be comming.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:43 | 5553101 pitchforksanonymous
pitchforksanonymous's picture

The FED should just get The Onion to start writing their minutes.

 

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:46 | 5553114 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

they already do its called CNBC.........since they will not change the language somehow it is being set up so the markets can rally 200 points ES into EOY

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:55 | 5553154 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

We onioned some folks.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:55 | 5553155 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Best BS Wall Street can have. They know it's all about perception, not reality.

Say lies long enough and their perceived as reality.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:06 | 5553211 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As perceived, reality is merely one's most plausible belief system.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:00 | 5553179 B2u
B2u's picture

CNBC?  Oh...you must mean CNBS.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:48 | 5553122 taraxias
taraxias's picture

They can't raise rates EVER, I don't give a fuck what the data says.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:49 | 5553127 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Sure they can! Let's get em' up tp 4 or 5% and see what happens.....

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:50 | 5553130 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

QE has just been vampirized

Nothing can kill it now

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:50 | 5553134 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

HAH!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:52 | 5553144 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oil very high- Proof economy is good.
Oil plunging- Proof economy is good.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:59 | 5553175 knukles
knukles's picture

That's what they said!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:55 | 5553152 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

you can imagine how bad it really is if they release this kinda number just before Christmas. and I thought everything was getting better for us folks in the grand USSA hmmm somebody better start Yellen at Barrack

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:56 | 5553158 wmbz
wmbz's picture

This is better data than expected!

It's obivous to the trained eye that the consumer is just taking a much needed break prior to the after Christmas shopping spree they will all be fightning over.

Onward and upward!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 09:57 | 5553168 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

1 comment on the 'if the Fed decides against hiking'...they can just keep kicking that can, 'we'll look at it again next Q' etc.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:00 | 5553180 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The real data can be released now that derivatives are covered by the taxpayer....

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:06 | 5553213 valley chick
valley chick's picture

With the taxpayers covering their ass and a FOMC meeting this week what could go wrong? Up, up an away!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:26 | 5553319 d edwards
d edwards's picture

And the election is over ;-)

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:05 | 5553197 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Come on Tyler,you're just being a Fuckhead.  sarc/

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:06 | 5553200 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

OFF topic

look what i got today, from walmart ,in my email:

Subject: It's Back! Cyber Monday 2.0 is here!
Date: Mon, 15 Dec 2014 05:28:04 -0800
From: newsletters@walmart.com

(this is your indication how good the economy is lol)

 

 

   
Mon, 12/15/2014 - 16:12 | 5554957 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

refinance your auto-loan - between the monthly savings from that and low gas prices, just think of all the treasures you can aquire at your local Wal-Mart?!?!

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:07 | 5553207 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
We Just Witnessed The Worst Week For Global Financial Markets In 3 Years http://investmentwatchblog.com/we-just-witnessed-the-worst-week-for-global-financial-markets-in-3-years/
Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:17 | 5553259 BlueShirt
BlueShirt's picture

New York. The Empire State. The Empire of worker unions......You would have to be totally out of your mind to start a manufacturing business in NY State.  

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:19 | 5553277 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

What if...Janet Yellen can't read?

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:23 | 5553297 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

But, but, Reuters says...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102268106

US Manufacturing Output is surging???

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:27 | 5553315 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Is this how "the big collapse" starts: the slow-motion train wreck of collapse in oil prices, holiday spending slump, fiat currencys collapsing, and?

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:45 | 5553402 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

...And GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip sales drop to zero as Wall Street goes fetal.

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:27 | 5553310 gmak
gmak's picture

Bloomberg says the same thing. Capacity utilization is up to 80.1% from 79.3% - oh noes. More data disagreement. Who ya gonna believe. The media, or your own lying eyes?

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 10:31 | 5553335 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

The background music playing on CNBC right now is also used at NBA playoff games -

 

 

 

They need some smoking hot scantily clad cheerleaders with large boobs to do a dance routine to really get the crowd behind a stock market rally.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 12/15/2014 - 11:51 | 5553757 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Obangotan is a puke.

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