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Oil Volatility Is Exploding (And It's Spreading)
Oil volatility has literally exploded in recent weeks as investors pile into protection and headline-driven shocks spark almost unprecedented swings in the ultimate raw material. While FX volatility has been draually picking up in the last 6 weeks - now at 2014 highs, rates and equity market volatilities have shrugged this off... until last week. While rates volatility is stable, equity vol picked up significantly as 'business risk' picks up once again - as evidenced by the contagious weakness in high-yield credit markets.
The oil risk is spreading...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Who cares? It's all about keeping equities levitated, right?
It's my fault.
I've been bike-commuting.
Gotta love how Caesars Casino can just decide to "skip" paying 225 million USD per a bond payment obligation:
http://headlines.ransquawk.com/headlines/caesars-czr-said-planning-to-sk...
News Headline Summary
Caesars (CZR) said planning to skip USD 225mln junior bond payment
Reaction details:
- In immediate reaction to this news CZR shares moved lower by 2.6% in a move from USD 12.16 to USD 11.85
Print 18:30 - US Equities - Source: BBG
Niiiiiiiice!
I will make sure to ask the bosses tonight when I go in to work. LoL. Seriously .... all the employees expect a BK sooner than later. Over expansion, and going private at the worst time EVAR crippled the company.
They can probably get away with it...once.
To a point, but Equities are a distraction and they can allow their bubble to burst
The bond Market bubble bursting will be another level altogether
There is much more 'wealth' tied up in debt securities than equities....
Assuming your argument is correct (and I suspect it is), then it could be argued that Equities are the perfect substitute-offering to sacrificing Bonds to the 'Markets'.
It's analogous to slaughtering an innocent sheep, rather the guilty human. I think the Chinese have a saying seems appropriate: "If you want to discipline a monkey, you must behead a rooster".
(Note that gods/God must be much dumber than we give them/Him credit for, it they/He fall(s) for this cheap substitution ploy of Atonement & Sacrifices. Assuming they/He are real in the first place. Cause I wouldn't fall for that charlatan sh*t, and I'm a mere mortal).
Hello? Janet? Last night's midnight oil manipulation wasn't enough. Do moar tonight.
Must.....close.....above......$56........
LOL!!!
CL-closes at 55.96 then salms down after pit close 34 ticks....lol.
Bonds don't give a shit.
Someone selling tens of thousands of ten year contracts sure wants to give that illusion.....
'Rates set to rise any minute now'....etc.
Grab your penny stocks let get rich and stop living like the poor
Just watch the sheeples queueing up for penny stocks moments before the big blow out. Pretty sure you have better odds winning the lottery than buying pink papers at off records highs and expecting to make millions.
USD vs BRICS
US will get shit on and soon. Escape while you still can.
To where exactly. San Paulo? LOL! I don't think so.
Parts of Europe are still attractive. The US is going to be even shittier than it already is. Don't go into places that are run down by latin hotbloods in South America. French countryside for example is pretty laid back and off the beaten track. Good climate, good food and no idiots with shyte for brains and arsenals in their basements.
Yeah good luck with that. This shit's going global. I'll fight where I'm at .
Wherever Simon Black is, sippin' on Duty-Free Cognac, there you'll be...
he be sippin on da sizzzzurp!!!!
Dressin' clean, drinkin' lean!
Exactly. People always say things like they will escape to ______. Great, have you actually looked at the mess they have over there as well? There is no place on earth that will not be affected by the coming shit storm.
Use the time that you have wisely to create a lasting network and develop real relationships with real people around you. Don't be a stranger in a strange land when the shit hits the fan.
Yeah I always laugh at expats who say they are living in some 3rd world hole to escape what's headed our way. Like being the rich gringo on the top of the hill in mexistanistan or wherever the hell they claim to be is the safest place on Earth when it all goes TU. Like the natives there won't immediately head to the hill with pitchfork and torch. At least here in America we are still not persecuted for planning and prepping (for now). In 3rd world countries not so much.
Dopes think their guns and ammo will protect them.
Russia is a better place to ride out the storm than Fascistan USA.
Dr. E, People don't understand the global problem that's being created, last times emerging countries hurt but this time we're going to see a huge collapse. America will be lord of the flies.
I recall an old story of some British couple choosing to 'escape' to the Falklands, a year before that war with Argentina. Life can be so ironic.
Of course there were also tens of thousands who left Germany or Europe entirely in the mid-to-late 1930s. And they definitely "chose wisely".
Seems like only death and maybe taxes are still a certainty. And not too sure about Taxes either. Hence, we'd better plan for the Odds. Cause that's all we got.
Belo Horizonte or Santiago seem a LOT safer than the US or Russia, I'd argue. Certainly safer than DC, NY or Moscow, or most places in the war-crazy northern hemisphere.
Gold back below the 50 day ma.
Silver no longer holding up well.
Yes, paper commodities can, and will, do all sorts of things. At the end of the day, some will have consumable calories to support their current quality of life, most will not.
same as it ever was...
Well oil itself is apparently volotile hence e exploding trains and the like.
Not that any lawyers are suing outside of British Petroleum of course.
Funny to listen to these greedy clowns bash government reglution too. As if "exploding regulation" is the proble. I agree...paper profits is all these asstards care about and well, sorry but if that paper is suddenly worth too much all I have to say is drop dead.
Now let's watch the price of the physical drop to 5 bucks a barrel shall we...
Sorry bud, but exploding regulations are a big problem in the REAL economy. I'm now actually officially considered a "major air polluter" for my state. I installed a 600KW diesel emergency generator for a commercial RE investment that will probably only run 20-30 hours per year. Never mind the fact that I can buy a brand new semi with that same exact diesel engine and let it sit in my parking lot running all day every day for 365 days in a row, without filling out any permits. This is a 2 year old regulation.
"emergency generator ."
There's your problem. You do know it's called a truck.
I'll buy that (argument). But... if you agree that "Life favors the prepared", then you have to admit that...
Those with lots of paper commodities are in way better shape to trade in some fraction of their wealth to hedge their bets with the real Assets that you happen to value. Life will favor them if they prepare also. And I'm pretty sure they do.
Funny how life always seems to favor the rich, no matter the business or political cycle. In peace and in war.
I know there's a lot going on, but can somebody please tell me what is going on with those VIX spikes? WTF?
Must slam VIX at every opportunity. No volatility here. Close your eyes and BTFD.
I hate that it cost me $21.00 less to fill my tank than it did months ago. It really depesses the shit out of me that I'm not burning moar fiat to get around.
You have like a 200 gallon tank then? What are you driving?
I have a 15 gallon tank and gas is down $1.40 a gallon from where it was a few mths ago.
I'm driving a Mars Lunar Orbiter!
Greyhound bus?
Yah, more money for crap from China than oil\gas from ND is real winner.
Moar fiat to buy PMs, lead, and foodstocks.
Don't forget cash, in small bills.
How many gallons per mile do you get in that MRAP?
don't spend your savings on gas all in one place big spender!
USO is the new SLV
deh spice, deh SPICE!
Will the US crash its own financial markets by continuing to manipulate oil prices down before it crashes the Russian economy?
Who seriously thinks that Mr. Yellen will defeat Mr. Putin?
Literally exploded. Literally.
Ugly chart, accelerating to the downside on volume ramping with the slide.
Looks like the light at the end of the tunnel is indeed an oncoming train loaded with crude!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%5ECLF15
Oh yeah and for more charting fun - drop by Google Finance and compare a chart of:
NYSEARCA:OIL with RUBUSD (Ruble to US Dollar) (type in to Compare box RUBUSD, click Add, then 6m). The two rocks were tied together for a while (last 6 months), but somehow the oil barrel slipped loose and is now sinking faster, amazingly enuf!!
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AOIL
Remain calm.....the 3:30 rampfest will take care of it.
Let's just hope that oil's volatility does not spread to a version of oil that might be called a "Message in a bottle", and that has a famous 'cocktail' named after a Russian general.
Molotov, Mazeltov? Something like that.
Dropping oil prices add a new surprising new dimension to the stability of the world financial system. While often heralded as a godsend to the economy and the end consumer we must remember lower prices hurt both producers and those in the business of oil exploration, drilling, and sales.
When financial problems occur in the energy sector it is often accompanied by political instability and sometimes her ugly sister war. As a rule the economy loves stability, bottom-line dropping oil prices means more risk for an already shaky world economy. All this is being complicated by the recently strong dollar.
The dollars strength and the rising American stock market could also be taken as a sign of an unstable global economy. The money flowing in from other countries in search of a safe home screams of a bigger problem! When a strong shift in currencies occurs someone usually gets hurt and this can lead to bankruptcy, default, or contagion.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/dropping-oil-prices-increase-risk...