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Outspooking The Lehman Apocalypse: Could A Russian Default Be In The Cards?
Via Mint - Blain's Extra Porridge,
“Nazhmite Lyubuyu Stavku...“
Extra Comment – this might be getting serious.
Russia’s markets have been spanked hard despite last night’s hike. 19% currency crash and 13% down stocks in a session. Ouch! Cumulatively, over the past few weeks stocks, oil and the Ruble are off 50% plus, and bonds off 40%. This morning felt like free-fall. Expect more action from the Russians to stave off economic catastrophe... imminent capital controls are rumoured, but markets are demonstrating a massive loss of confidence.
Lots of old market hands are talking about how its similar to the Russia default and crash of ‘98 all over again.. Actually.. its worse.
Much worse.
The scale and speed of the current collapse is a magnitude greater, and the effects are accelerated and magnified by the utter absence of liquidity, and by the political stakes at play. Lots of comments about how a Russian crisis might play out and what cornered Putin may do – or be forced into. Let’s not speculate, but it seems pretty clear that any Western support to calm the crisis and stabilise markets would come at a very high personal cost to Putin. That would be a good point to get selectively involved.
It’s too early. We’ve seen a few cautious buyers get wallpapered with Russian and Ukraine paper – and done decent amount of business, but generally none of the main distressed players feel it’s yet time to get involved. “Don’t expect a V-Shaped recovery – its different and aint going to happen..” said one manager. Hope is not a strategy when it comes to Russia at present.
The big risk is whether the Russian meltdown can be contained within the borders of the Rodina. All kinds of no-see-ems suggest themselves.
What are potential knock-ons into other markets? Perhaps Russians having to unwind London Property, (we understand Russians have been very big buyers in recent weeks prefiguring potential exchange controls), or further ructions in Europe? We’re already concerned European sovereign debt is poised on a knife-edge between brutal reality and over-inflated hopes for QE. A strong nudge from a conflagurating Russia and bang goes Italy?
Or will it come from safe-haven flight triggering sell-offs across every asset class in a replay of 2008? Could a Russia default that will outspook the Lehman apocalypse be on the cards?
So much for dull Christmas markets...
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I know I am spamming ZH with this -- its important.
Fucking watch this (2 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq0ykF2mHgQ
bitchezzz
Imagine the US blows up its own shit blame it on Russia, and thereafter "Belgium" liquidates all its newly acquired T-Bill reserves labeled as "Russia" -- and the bankers have their war.
I watched that last week. They will always tell you what they are going to do to you before they do it. Megalomaniacs are funny like that.
America will be poor, unemployed, and pissed as hell. Imagine how everyone felt on 9/12 but couple it with having everyones life savings evaporating.
They always do. We all remember x Files in 2000.
Manufacturing is salvation, Russia needs to learn from China.
Russian Federal debt is 16% of GDP.
What's really going on.
Russia and China announced in the summer of 2014 that they were no longer accumulating USD denominated assets:
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt
They have been using their USD trade generated revenue to buy real assets including physical gold and are moving to pricing oil in gold for trade.
The paper gold boys in London are nervous.
Nope, Russia is pricing oil in Ruble now, while selling gold.
Oil backed Ruble + non convertable capital account, the Chinese playbook basically.
That's what you think.
Blood is definately in the streets now.
I'm sorely tempted to buy up Rubles and Russian treasury bonds.
Russia should have just paid what the Saudis wanted before the Sochi Olympics. It would have been a lot less painful.
Damn, that's funny. The royals know the Russians are not cowards and not going to be ruled by anyone. They know the Russians will not back down too, so the ultimate objective will be won one way or another. Making war has always been easy enough. I hope I'm wrong for my children's sake, but I still expect this to end in a global nuclear war.
Haus-Targaryen
Thanks for the video. Not sure what to make of it.
Anyway, there's definitely, as a Putin adviser mention, a war coming in Europe.
So, for anyone wonder why Chuck Hagel had to leave in a hurry…. Well, wonder NO more!
Back in the day the story was that when the Iranians took over our embassy and held them hostage they did the same to the Russians. Only the Russians sent the Iranian messenger back to Iran with his genitals cut off and stuffed in his mouth. The Iranians got the message and bailed on the Russian embassy.
"Back in the day the story was that when the Iranians took over our embassy and held them hostage they did the same to the Russians. Only the Russians sent the Iranian messenger back to Iran with his genitals cut off and stuffed in his mouth. The Iranians got the message and bailed on the Russian embassy."
Not true, that was in Lebanon in the 80's. The terrorists kidnapped a few Russians, the Russians kidnapped a few friends of the terrorists and released them with important parts missing. Withing 24hrs the Russians walked free.
As they say in Russia "there are TWO ways to solve a problem : the civilzed one and the uncivilzed one. And we Russians always tend to go for the latter!"
Obama and Soros should be very afraid at the moment.
I know they're insane surely not that tapped out
I don't know, imports of nailguns have gone through the roof.
Bullshit.
Well then EVERYBODY GO BUY YOUR DFREAM CAR, BOAT, PLANE, SNOW MOBILE, FIREARM, VACATION, CLOTHES, GADGETS, HOOKERS AND BOOZE ALL ON CREDIT BEFORE ALL THE BANKS GO POOF!
Will the hookers and blow get counted in GDP?
Won't matter anyway once all the banks vaporize cause there won't be any currency left for counting GDP
Then again, GDP might be measured in barter trades like hookers for booze..
So GDP will be measured in "hooker hours" -- for example?
Headbanger, I DO plan on getting a new 4x4 suv as my other ride is 10 yards old now. Don't want to deal with changing hoses and belts while fighting off zombies!
Go to the Dakotas. They are giving them away.
You were not spamming.
That video is a MUST SEE.
Here's another good movie clip TT...
http://dailybail.com/home/when-you-control-the-debt-of-war-the-players-a...
From the 2009 film 'The International' inspired by the BCCI (Bank of Credit and Commerce International) scandal, comes the following truth:
Only the accounted.
You mean to say they are not?
I did that in 2008, and it hasn't worked out for so hot for me. 6.06
The problem with that is Russian labor isn't all that cheap, and there's not a huge surplus of it what with the collapsing life expectancy and lack of much breeding going on.
Russians seem to have a different mentality towards production than the Chinese. However, threaten Mother Russia and they move entire factories over the Urals and produce 2500 T-34 a month and 10,000 Sturmoviks and the drunken bastards can fight, ask General Paulus..
Time for that genius John Merriwether to start a new hedge fund so he can get bailed out ... to make it more legit get a couple of PhD in there ...
Sounds like a good time for some stock panic buying!
FOMC minutes tomorrow.
In the 2-3 days following the last 3 meetings, DUST has gone up 13, 25, and 66%, respectively.
Yep. I nearly pulled the trigger on some silver today near the bottom, but it looks like I'll have a better opportunity in a few days...
Silver is not at the bottom. You know this. Knife, falling...catch or not to catch?
deflationary thinking.
Is there ever a bad time to buy stawks? Stawks, stawks, loverly stawks?
.....an ETF, at that !
Forget not the militarized cops & Øbama's Brown Shirts.
Widespred civil unrest will allow the Gov to drop the hammer, closing the remaining gaps in oppression nationwide.
Worldwide
Fixed that for ya
Your rights were stripped by Congress the other night. You are now lower than an illegal alien with even fewer rights. They don't care what we think.
What would happen if the US would raise it's interest rates during the FOCM meetings within the next 2 days? If only by just a little bit? Wouldn't that blow up the Ruble?
During the ERM crisis in 1992, the UK begged Germany to lower rates, but the Germans stuck to their guns. What if the US decides to screw Russia over the next 48 hours and raise rates by a tiny factor?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-15/lesson-todays-currency-crises-b...
Raising the rate would blow ourselves up even worse (increased debt payments....etc) No, just let the House of Saud do the heavy lifting on Russia and keep the powder dry.
That wouldn't do anything to the Russians. A surprise rate increase would blow a hole in US equities, probably wiping out more value that the market cap of the whole Russian stock and bond market, making EM, et al less risky on a relative basis. It probably would even make long term rates go down, as "traditional" economists interpret the move as likely to cause deflation. The yield curve would flatten, but it wouldn't likely shift higher.
"They will always tell you what they are going to do to you before they do it."
Yes, it's psychological.
The thing about the banking mafia is they are basically the spawn of hundreds of generations of loan sharks. As loan sharking is such a dirty, nasty business decent people can't do it so over those generations all the childen born to the banking mafia who weren't sociopaths dropped out and became tailors or something.
So eventually - after 100s of generations of this process - the people left in the banking mafia familes are 100% sociopath.
Movies aren't reality. Movies aren't "important", they are entertainment. If you need movies to understand the world around you, then you have problems.
There aren't conspiracies where Hollywood writers put in secret Illuminati plans into movies, sorry.
---> THE POINT <---
---> You <---
that videos tend to convey lesser quality info? that I share this prejudice, based on my personal and so limited experience?
I was not saying the "movie" was important. Its just a movie.
The message contained therein -- an idea -- is what is important. Ideas, whos time has come, can be disseminated on a multitude of platforms, be it low-budget financial blogs, movies, radio, the news, etc., etc., yet cannot be stopped.
I will wait till I see it on a folded dollar bill
lol
watched the movie. Jack Ryan, the character from Clancy's novels? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ryan_(character)
I suggest you read the books. I enjoyed them, and I'm sure you will, if you read them. where was the beef, exactly?
We were at my parents' house for my son's 10th birthday a few weeks ago, and he casually showed Grandma and Grandpa the World Trade Center on the money he had received as a gift.
The next generation could be a real bitch for the powers that be.
Yep, tell him to look forward to the fema camps. Tons of fun.
There are topics which people in high places can write about "fictionally". If those same people were to expose them as factual information then they go to PRISON under the National Security Acts.
The fictional movie, "Unthinkable" is how I initially learned that Child Molestation, as a form of torture, was being conducted by the CIA.
Then I found and discovered factual information to back that fictional account.
It is something to consider...
I remember "The Towering Inferno". I don't think the building in the movie collapsed in it's own footprint though.
But what about Marty McFly's personal involvement in 9/11??????
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPJQ-1Y8jfY
That was dumb as fuck, the clock read 9:50 something not 9:11.
+1 just because one of the related videos is called "Illuminati Cloned Jennifer Lawrence..Better Wake Up!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xc8Znaig18
Anyone else ever stop to think that all this really out there crackpot conspiracy stuff is actually shopped out there to distract/marginalize folks who are waking up to real important problems? Like Debt money/Central Banks, ZioNazis, Endless Wars, and shit like Fukushima?
At a certain point you've gotta say, jeeze the chemtrails in the sky could be posion, but I'm pretty sure the guy who looks like Jamie Dimon holding the gun to my head probably warrants a bit more attention.
This!
The life learning message to take away from 9/11 is that parts of the government just murdered 3,000 fellow countrymen in broad daylight on nation-wide tv. These same perps are spraying particle trails over your head and you're out here convincing people not to be alarmed. Sorry, logic fail for you.
I saw the Bay Area sky woven in particulate matter. Here, where I'm typing from now has never seen any such sky abuse. There are no planes.
Yep, there's someone (or multiple someones) who spams comment sections with links to a site called wellaware1.com. Real crazy shit, and I'm convinced it's some kind of government-sponsored disinfo op to slander everyone who dares to question an "official story." I guess that probably sounds equally as crazy...
(p.s. The youtube channel for wellaware1 is called "DallasGoldBug." Gotta make sure gold bugs get painted as crazy, too.)
The ear guy! Hahahaha.
This Chemtrail thing, I always wondered does everyone who benefits from this program. The pilots, Congress, financial and other elites their children are they all innoculated against the poisons or is it what I have suspected all along; Bullshit..
Wag the Dog?
enjoyed watching it
Exactly.
You must be a Hollywood insider? In which case that is what you would say. In which case only the people incapable of intellectual analysis would believe you. You may also be correct, however, to think that people (able to get blockbuster movies in front of a billion suckers) wouldn't include just a tinky winky bit of propaganda defies ALL logic, if you think about it.
Well, it might shed more truth than anything that comes out of the district of critters. Their spew is complete bullshit, 24/7.
The elites will tell you what's coming. During the superbowl half time before bruno mars came on. A whole bunch of children were singing. All lit up was PREPARE. Freaky shit. I taped the game and showed to friends. So what, they think I am a moonbat anyway. But you've been warned. Prepare the best you can, live your life and make the best out of it, and most of all; fuck fear.
more I watch this the more I tell my self this was scripted to perfection
but it is also a well known fact (for those in the know) that the Illuminati loves to show what they are planning in their movies way ahead of time
but it is also a well known fact (for those in the know) that the Illuminati loves to show what they are planning in their movies way ahead of time
It's well known 'fact' for those who know it? Or just for those who believe it?
Know it with a capital K
Don't forget about the Illuminati Game Cards:
http://rense.com/general95/illum.htm
haha well noone is hiding that they are trying to dump the dollar. Im just surprised it hasnt happend earlier, but i guess US getting free stuff for printing up fiat wasnt enough to make it worth the effort to abandon the militarybacked petrodollar.
However now that they use the USD openly for economic warfare russia hardly even have a choice.
"The USD is unsafe. It will crash in the next several years."
"Nuh-uh!"
"OK then, how about that $4.5 trillion printed by the Fed, $60 trillion in debt, $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities, $230 trillion in OTC derivatives that US banks alone are exposed to, faulty definitions from the BLS in order to use statistics to lie to us, 6 years of ZIRP, etc...?"
"Well, there's nothing to replace the dollar WRC. Nobody will trust Russia or China to replace the dollar."
"Would you mind pointing out to me where there is some natural law that cannot be violated that says that there must be a WRC?"
*this is about when the ad hominims start*
Its good to know I am not alone with these experiences.
It puts people in a very, very uncomfortable place and they don't want to think about some serious mad max shit happening unless they're watching a movie that they know is fictional about it. The idea that they won't be able to chant "USA! USA! USA! WE"RE NUMBER ONE!" is horrifying to them. The idea that supply chains could actually break here is not only horrifying, but unthinkable. Never mind that they don't have a clue how those supply chains actually work, the idea that steaks don't grow on trees in the back of the grocery store (but hidden from view) already wrapped in plastic and styrofoam is something that never even enters their minds. I've actually heard "Why don't you just buy your meat from the store? Hunting is cruel, and you don't have to kill an animal when you get your meat from the store."
Some of it is plain stupidity on an unimaginable scale, and some of it is willful ignorance.
I think you hit the nail on the head.
People are so stuck in this idea that "the system has worked great in my lifetime, its all I know, so it will keep going" is almost insurmountable.
However, when you do catch people -- or sometimes they catch themselves, I see it in their eyes. For a split second -- they realize its all bullshit, and then the "self-preservation mechanism" kicks in and they talk themselves out of it, and turn back on the game.
Regrettably this is essentially my entire family -- save my uncle who is a silver whore.
My step dad, who is a great guy told him "Frank -- I don't understand it -- why do you own silver. Someone could break into your house and steal it. Its much safer in the bank, or in the stock market."
Regreattably, this is the outlook for 97% of the population.
And when shit does go sidways, the reaction of many people is going to be a combination of panic and anger. But you know what? They get lied to by those calling the shots, the lie gets exposed, then they believe the next lie. This goes on and on, and will so long as we have panem et circunses. People who don't want to understand the world are at much greater risk of getting squashed by it.
"No don't kill animals when you can buy pink slime at the store." That's probably what they mean.
You and I have both talked supply chains for years, they are the key, you can time teotwawki at least in the active batten down the hatches phase by talking to otr drivers and retail clerks..
Seriously man, you're parroting the same delusions. He thinks it will be safe in the bank, you think it will be safe in silver.
I'll tell you something, if shit goes Mad Max you can forget your store of currency because people will turn ISIS real quick and they only need one more bullet than you if they want your gold or silver.
Imagine being holed up in your house while the warriors are outside loaded to the teeth and wanting to get their hands on your physical so they can make gold chains to hang their collection of human ears on.
That's what the silver and gold people forget.
The only real currency are weapons and ammunition and even then you won't have enough.
Counterpoint -- I am no longer in the USSA.
In mad max world, they'd probably not care as much about your shiny as they would about your food, clothing, etc... If you think the world is going to go mad max, and you can afford some silver and gold right now on top of necessities for surviving mad max, then it may not be a bad idea. After the dust settles, people are going to want a means to settle trades, even if only local. Even if we do go Mad Max, the insanity won't last forever. The survivers will eventually figure out that, once their shit is taken care of, it's probably not such a good idea.
Amen. That is why you do not remain static, but have to move. Those thinking they will fend off intruders in a static environment will not make it. Vehicles, wakling, a plan, a location, knowing how to hunt, staying mobile, everything will assist those in making it. I don't fear my gov't, I fear the sorry SOB's around me that will go ape shit when the food, water, etc. runs out due to supply chain lines breaking.
Come join us at www.gunsgrubandgold.com
Everyone welcome, looking for new members, and moderators...
I enjoy hunting, fishing and exploring. I've found a few suitable places. My favorite has caves and canyons to hide in, has water and very few even know that it exists. There isn't even a lot of information on the internet on this place. When you drive by on the nearest major road, it looks like flat shitty desert land for as far as the eye can see, but it is not. Another place, after the dust settles, is Catron County, NM. Those people are independent as hell and know ranching. You'd have to wait until the dust settles, and then probably have something to offer them though. They know how to ranch, I know how to grow produce and know how to save seed. There is also a lot of wild game down there.
Another thing that I would recommend is learning a variety of skills from ages past. If you had a hunk of iron, would you know how to make charcoal in order to heat it up enough to play blacksmith? How did the pioneers make soap (or wipe their asses, for that matter?) How does a spinning wheel work and how does a loom work? How did the indians make their arrows straight and of consistent spine and diameter? How would you tan leather if you weren't able to go to a leather shop and get modern tanning chemicals? ("He's got just enough brains to tan his hide is a hint of one method, and medieval Britons soaked the hides in a slurry of dogshit.) You cannot know how to do everything all of a sudden, and I certainly do not, but knowing a few of those things could be the difference between becoming a valued member of some group and becoming dead. My current project is learning how to make my own bows. The current hunk of wood is just a board bow that I backed with fiberglass, but I didn't want to jump right into a self bow and spend all that time only to screw up the tillering. It's basically a learning project that, if I'm careful, will also be fun to shoot. I'm also wanting to go up to the Jemez here fairly soon because there is a spot where you can get tons (literally) of obsidian, and the best part is I can bring my fishing rod while collecting it. I want to learn how to knap the stuff.
At least having an idea of how some of those, and other things, work is a head start.
I agree you gotta remain mobile, but eventually you'll need fuel which won't be easy to get. So there goes your car. And frankly, I'll be fucked if I'm driving anywhere loaded with gold, or even lugging a backpack full of the shit anywhere.
My advice, forget your trinkets or bury them somewhere early and get as far away from people as possible.
And how the populations are going to react are going to be different depending on where you are. NYC without food coming in? Katie bar the door! Holy shit! I read somebody writing about NYC in a SHTF situation. He said something along the lines of "assume that, even though it's SHTF with the power out, etc... food still gets into NYC. How are you going to deal with 8 million working intestines?" The answer to that leads to one helluva point.
Even right where I am could get dicey, though there is enough livestock raised to feed everybody in the state if the ranchers want to go back to herding with their horses. Produce would be the interesting thing for the first year, though there is enough room to grow enough to feed the people here. (Small, local farms means employment for any gubbment morons who think that they should regulate such things into failure.)
Lets imagine this instead, I find them first me and my 14 boys i ntheir camp at night we all have night vision and they dont.. How many rounds do we need ohh seer of the future, 100k-200k-300k...
"The only real currency are weapons and ammunition and even then you won't have enough."
And a team so there's someone watching your back and on sentry while you sleep.
the idea that steaks don't grow on trees
Stop with the conspiracy nonsense already.
It would be conspiracy nonsense if I had stated that they grew on trees already wrapped in foil. Get yer conspiracy theories straight!
You have a dumb looking avitar.
Your avatar is for the birds...
But I am just another baghead so what do I know?
Downvotes? Turn on your sarcasm detector FFS. Three words: pot, kettle, black. Get it?
Stakes DO grow on trees...some even come with pretty pink ribbons.
Not quite in trees....
http://odia.ig.com.br/noticia/brasil/2014-07-08/vaca-fica-presa-em-cima-...
Welcome to Brazil's flood.
Geez, steak on a stake.
Where are you getting those numbers from?
Mostly memory, so they're only so-so on the accuracy, but they're going to be close enough that the point is made.
Federal reserve printing: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/08/quantitative-easing-the...
Total debt: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=TCMDO,
One estimate of the unfunded liabilities: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/17/you-think-the-deficit-is... (Note that you can find values that are less than that and values that exceed that. The total unfunded liabilities are a projection on what the US will owe in the future, and we all know how projections go on this shit.)
Go down to page 10 for OTC derivatives: http://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/tradin...
You can go to the BLS and get their definitions of various statistics. For example, http://www.bls.gov/dolfaq/bls_ques23.htm
You can then look at those definitions, see that the labor force is fundamentally working age adults (ex some small portions of the population) who are working, were recently working or are "looking" for work. You can then go look at things on FRED or over at the BLS, see that the employment population ratio has been largely flat since '09 or '10 or so, yet unemployment has gone down. You can then look and see that the labor force population rate has gone down. In other words, people are no longer being counted as the labor force, therefore, they don't count as unemployed. But they're still out of work.
https://mr-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2014/03/Federal-Funds-Rate-6...
Ahhh..why do you think we have been the most immune to everything on going in the rest of the world? We inflate and export our kicked can and everyone else suffers the consequence SOLELY because we are the reserve currency...that is why the endless rape and manipulate Silver & Gold..and why this is a breaking point in coming years with Russia...It is all they have left...
They are fighting what will soon morph into a hot war to prevent us from losing our reserve currency to Russia or China..which is exactly the groundwork Putin has been laying for over 2 years...very slowly..much like gradualism...slowly walk towards your goal so as not to appear to be a threat..they are letting us implode ourselves..and we will because our elected or bought and paid leaders do not have our interest or that of the United States..just the pockets of their own families..
This all great. What exactly are they going to default on again? This is what I don't understand. Their oil revenues are all in USD which can more than pay for their external debt servicing. The surplus can easily cover expenses in a devalued ruble, all else being equal. Where does the default come in? I mean... if you don't really have much in the way of debt is pretty hard to default, regardless of what the stock market is doing. I didn't hear anyone talking about the US "Defaulting" during the GFC.
Revenues? Are you retarded? What does it COST to pump those barrels.... It is no fun to sell a depleting asset at a loss, but the low sovereign debt is less of a plus 17%. LO, but I get your point
What does it COST to pump those barrels...
According to Rosneft, it costs them $4 per barrel.
http://rt.com/business/209579-opec-oil-supply-russia/
Next question.
double-post
+1000000000000
When the terrorist abducted works for the guy that abducted him! When I saw that movie all those years ago I thought it sucked -then 9/11/2001 happened!
The rich man's cryptic mea culpa for his sins using fiction! My understanding is that Hollywood and Langley have had quite the partnership for many, many years collaborating on really great stories.
Name the picture over the last 50 years that's come too close for comfort...
After all. it's true what they say about 'boiling a frog"... Increase the temperature slowly so it thinks it's a hot bath and not the next meal on the menu!
DOW, SP, and Q's are all in the red again after the moron's rally this morning. Europe is lucky they closed at the highs or else they would be following the US into the toilet. I hope Russia defaults and destroys the European banking system LOL
Well there's been Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, 9/11. Why not this?
Horse Shit.
@ Haus-Targaryen, The thread moved down very quickly, but this is re your first post.
Sometime ago there were writings (Taibbi, if I recall correctly) about big western banks in commods that were manipulating base metals (aluminium and possibly copper) by causing delays etc. at warehouses they managed for the LME. The argument was that they were not keeping prices artificially down, as with the PMs, but artificially up. If true, that suggested that they were masking an already ongoing depression. Then a bit later a number of banks started announcing short order exits from commodities and metals warehousing.
Maybe they are ready to let the chips fall, and maybe a hollywood movie is a good tool to plant the seed in the heads of people, that when the scenario unfolds, they will look elsewhere for culprits, rather than Wall Street Banks and the Fed.
"Could a Russian default be in the cards?"
What, your Tarrot cards? Unless Putin is a true Potemkin Man, he will not fold. He could do a number of things, including: Nationalizing the RCB, backing the RUB with Oil+Gas (Energy) plus 20% Gold and Platinum mix. This overall mix is to mess with scumbags in NY and London, who can't depress all of these forever, without going broke themselves.
But, if we keep a balanced and unbiased view, and look at the big picture... while we see the US and IDF attacking, bombing and droning with impunity in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere, and IDF keeps taking out Russian arm shipments to Syria (that surely include Air Defenses), and we see ever more fancy arms getting ever closer to Russia's border, we see Putin/Russia doing nothing but take the diplomatic high road. They do NOT shoot down US or IDF planes in Iraq. WTF? What gives? They lack the tech, the nerve or do the Beijing bosses got them on a leash?
Unless and until we see some of their acclaimed toys in action and kick some serious ass, there is NO reason for deterrence by IDF or the US. Why would there be? So far I see the Banker Boa encircling its Bear prey more effectively than the Prey endangering the Boa.
Moral respect (that is earned) is great. But at some point and periodically, you just gotta get visceral respect. And all Visceral respect is based on... Fear. So far, aside from making lots of noise (for domestic and foreign consumption), the Ruskies have given the world not cause for Visceral respect. Maybe that'll change?
Judo
Merry Christmas everybody!
Happy hach, hock, Hanukkah.
Hell, I can never say that;)
Do it this way: Happy Festivus
Snoopy's Mexican cousin version.
Fleas Navidad!
Chaka Khan
Don't look at a heat map of the VIX, it will burn a hole in your retina!!!
Bingo !
Nyet!
All part of the plan. Events are moving along nicely according to the NWO globalists.
...as planned by Dr. Engali, their secret leader. disprove it, if you can
what nefarious, plan, Doctor, hiding behind the facade of a ZH fan
buhuhahaha.... buhuhahaha..... ;-)
We collapsed some folks.
More like we collapsed the European banking system.
"We collapsed the royal's banking system." I fixed it for you.
There will be continuing issues. Anyone with goods in transit to Russia must be shitting bricks.
Even if you thought you were hedged, your brokers just informed you that mmmm, not so much.
How do you feel about that next shipment?
They better hope that contract wasn't in rubles or else they better have those ships turn back
So what's Putin's move here?
So far, Russia has been extremely ineffective at thwarting the syndicate takedown.
Now we have another round of sanctions looming...Russia has said to expect a response...they are bleeding from the gills, the Ruble is collapsing...so what does Putin do?
Does he go down the standard syndicate captive victim losing path of capital controls, etc, does he use some sort of military option as his first choice?
Is he smart enough to clean out the Comex/LME ?
What?
Russia's next financial option may be 'nuclear' — RT Business
http://rt.com/business/214927-ruble-capital-controls-nuclear/
In case you haven't noticed, the bleeding just stopped today... No more FX games against the ruble.
I have noticed that the CDS spread is blowing out, which means the bleeding is intensifying.
No, it's just the western counterparts going thru the motions. The premiums for "insurance" for the FX trade againt the ruble is going up. Which is normal since nobody pays dollars for rubles anymore...
The CDS is the primary syndicate tool to achieve a soverign bankruptcy and it has been used many times for this purpose.
A spiking CDS has financial consequences for Russia and everyone doing business with Russia. The typical responses to it are capital controls and raising interest rates [already at 17%].
You seem to believe it is of no consequence, but it absolutely is. Putin has to respond in some way or Russian soverign bonds are headed for default.
The Russians could do precisely nothing, and fry all those bondholders like they did in 1998. Remind me who got fucked back then ? Wasn't by any chance the smartest guy alive and his miracle money machine, aka LTCM ? And what happened next ? Maybe this IS Putin's response...
I don't think bankruptcy would be viewed as a very effective response, and I don't think it would be a very effective response, especially given his aspirations with BRIC and China.
So that is my original question. What is Putins response? It seems that he must have a card or two up his sleeve prior to a military response, but he has yet to play any.
Finally, Russians are known for not making threats. So this is also related to the mix.
It's not about what you think, it's about what THEY think. And, I haven't heard of any Russian threats over the last couple of weeks. Now THAT is worrisome !
The CDS is the primary syndicate tool to achieve a soverign bankruptcy and it has been used many times for this purpose.
A spiking CDS has financial consequences for Russia and everyone doing business with Russia. The typical responses to it are capital controls and raising interest rates [already at 17%].
You seem to believe it is of no consequence, but it absolutely is. Putin has to respond in some way or Russian soverign bonds are headed for default.
CDS are bets that there will be a default. As their actual value can be manipulated - ie, by Western central banks buying them hand over fist - a high value does not mean Russia will default, What will determine Russia defaulting is if they fail to meet their payments.
It's true that high CDS values mean bond buyers will want higher yields on Russian sovereign debt... but the Russian government can survive without borrowing, they must have been running a surplus to have paid down as much of their debt as they have.
CDS are more like insurance for those holding Russian debt (in this case). It doesn't affect them (they've been pretty much locked out of the world finance already) but their creditors, especially those holding longer term paper. I think RCB (or its boss) just decided to pull the plug and use their reserves from now on for meaningful payments only (like purchasing stuff they really need) instead of wasting their stash of oil dollars playing by the western rules in the FX game. It is that simple...
There are two ways to look at CDS.
In a fair market, the CDS spread is an indicator of the likelihood of default.
In an unfair market [the market we have today], the CDS can be and is used as is a tool by the syndicate to force interest rates higher and higher ultimately forcing a default.
In other words, if you force CDS higher by relentless buying with printed money, it has an inside out effect. Instead of being the indicator it becomes the weapon due to the arbitrage that will occur.
The Russians have been locked out of the western credit market already by sanctions. So, who's buying those CDS and for what ? These rising premiums are for existing loans changing hands as the western banks are trying to pass a hot potato (Russian loans) among themselves. Reminds me of the whole MBS dance 6 years ago. As the music is coming to an end, the partners are getting frantic to grab a seat. But SOMEBODY will be left standing by the end of this week. It's gonna be fun to watch... ;)
Yup
Good luck with that.
Putin is a patriot (Barry isn't), but he's riding a bad horse. He knows that now.
What should happen is a few quiet deals with the West on a broad range of subjects. Putin is smart and mature enough to do that.
Our side? Gawdhelpus.
you have no idea what you are talking about , this could easily lead to WWIII or the collapse of petrodollar
I dont think we have anything in between now , we have crossed a line of no return in this currency war
There will be no more deals with the NWO. WW3 is next. THe elites are heading into their bunkers while billions are going to die, you included.
This is the actual point I'm on.
Is his next move a sub launched pre emptive decapitation strike or does he have an effective non military option he can use first? If he does, he has yet to use it.
Just a flesh wound.
We are talking war here, and the reason everyone loses when they take on Russia is they
underestimate their enemy. Plus the Russian people are the most obstinate and stubborn I've
ever come across.An obdurate Afrikaaner is not even in the same league, and they make your
head spin.I still like both, but they not easy to deal with.
I don't think the US has a clue about what will likely happen if they continue this insane
warmongery.I hope we don't all find out the hard way.
If the Russian intention is independence, default is the master stroke. Default all USD and EU vehicles and continue to honor all Asian debt.
Garuantee dollar abondonment, continue strengthening ties with Asia trading Asian sovereign currencies.
Several tough years, but that's going to happen anyway if the intention is to break the dollar's back. There is going to be no easy way to do it.
Russians expect a life of hardship. It's in their blood.
Logged in just to up-arrow you. You understand.
Russia is separating trade from the EU block because they're fucking broke. And the US? Ha! Trade real stuff for worthless paper?
Global trade as we've come to know it WILL fail/collapse. This is realignment. Stop and ask what other countries are going to be able to do when the chains start breaking. Russia can China (and India) can hold trade for a while, with actual meaningful goods and payment sources.
This is about the Western banking system collapsing. Yeah, sure, Russia will feel a reverberation, but know this: This is about the Western banking system collapsing, not Russia's or Asia's (though they'll bleed for sure).
"Russians expect a life of hardship. It's in their blood."
Neither Hitler or Stalin could triumph over them. Enough said!
20 million dead, they came back and battled across the globe for nearly 50 years, they got no Marshall plan. We lost 1/2 million and THOUGHT we were bad ass. These people are dangerous no matter your opinion of Putin, FSB or their overall society these people are dangerous and we abuse them at our peril. I hate bullies, you back me into a corner someone maybe both of us are getting hurt, but I guarantee someone is getting hurt. Putin will hurt you.
Pretty sure Putin's popularity rating is increasing through all of this. The propaganda is full retard at this point from NATOs end. Putin said all along he was doing away with all ties to the US dollar. Nothing to see here. The gold will save him.