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Western Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities
As Zero Hedge first reported today, shortly before noon one (and subsequently more) FX brokers advised clients that any existing Ruble positions would be forcibly closed out because "western banks have stopped pricing USDRUB", over concerns of Russian capital controls. Ironically, it was this forced liquidation of mostly short RUB positions that pushed the RUB higher, which in turn had a briefly favorably impact on energy commodities and risk assets, as the market had by then perceived the Ruble selloff as excessive. Of course, since nothing had actually changed aside from a temporary market technical, the selloff promptly resumed into the close of trading once the market finally understood what we had explained hours previously.
And unfortunately for the bulls, various falling knife-catchers, and those who hope the Russian situation will stabilize imminently with or without capital controls, it appears things in Russia are about to get a whole lot worse because as the WSJ reports, the next driver of the Russian crisis is likely to come from within the banking system itself because "global banks are curtailing the flow of cash to Russian entities, a response to the ruble’s sharpest selloff since the 1998 financial crisis."
Presenting Russia's banks: now cut off from the outside world as the second cold war goes nuclear, at least when it comes to the financial system:
Such banks as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week started rejecting requests from institutional clients to engage in certain ruble-denominated repurchase agreements and other transactions designed to raise cash, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bankers and traders say the moves to restrict some ruble transactions have become increasingly widespread among major Western financial institutions this week, even as the same institutions continue to try to profit from the ruble’s wild swings. The moves, which the banks are deploying to protect themselves against further swings in the currency, have the potential to add to the strain on Russia’s financial system.
Goldman in recent days largely stopped doing longer-term ruble-denominated repurchase agreements, or repos, in which securities or other assets are swapped in exchange for cash, said a person familiar with the matter. The Wall Street bank is still doing short-duration ruble repos, those that mature in less than a year, this person said.
And where Goldman goes, everyone else follows, even though according to the WSJ this has not happened, yet:
Other banks, including Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., haven’t changed their trading with Russia or in rubles, according to people familiar with those banks.
They will, it is only a matter of time. Meanwhile, the entire Russian capital market, and not just its currency, is becoming isolated from the rest of the Western world:
In one sign of the banking industry’s hasty retreat, the London-based manager of an emerging-markets hedge fund said Tuesday that he couldn’t get any banks to trade Russian government bonds with him.
Of course, anyone who read our article in early November explaining "How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed", predicting the crunch in global intermarket liquidity as a result of the collapse in crude, would know this is coming. As for the death of the Petrodollar we warned about, a death which has resulted in the disintegration of market volume just as warned, suddenly everyone is noticing.
Regardless, what all of the above means is that Russia now has at best a few weeks in which to find an alternative source of short-term funding. One coming from the East.
The question is will Putin swallow his pride and proceed with the next logical step as the Eurasian axis realizes the time to abandon the dollar has long past, that now only actions matter and not words, and joins forces with China in a new monetary union, one which combines the Ruble and the Yuan, and is backed by China's gold and Russia's natural resources, as cheap as they may be for the time being... until one or more of the largest middle-east oil exporters experiences a major and "unexpected" geopoolitical incident, one which sends the price of oil soaring right back up.
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Your move Vlad...
He's made his move.
Russia has enough USD to cover its soveriegn debt.
The corporate debt, that might not be paid, is owned by Euro and US banks:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/fed-will-implement-qe4-in-early-2016-rick...
Buy Rubles and Russian stock while the blood is flowing in the streets.
The Bald headed killer Bear of Clair county!
Let's get ready to RUBLE!!!!
“becoming isolated from the rest of the Western world”
Well, there is always the eastern world.
And I think this will end more badly for us than them.
Way to go, D.C. jerkoffs..
The Eastern world — what's that? Remember the famous New Yorker cover with the "map?"
http://editorial.designtaxi.com/news-newyorkercover0310/1.jpg
That's kind of how the Western world views everybody else. It's a dangerous combination of arrogance and ignorance.
Putin will act but God help the USA when he does as we are ill prepared to defend the Urkaine, Taiwan, and South Korea at the same time. Meanwhile, quite a few intelligent Russians are probably making out quite well, even with the price of gold topping 83,000 Ru to the oz.:
Russia’s Collapse Demonstrates Why One Should Own Gold in One Simple ChartThe only thing that can be expected from the next US president is more war, more murder, and more oppression of the gullible American people. People as uninformed and as gullible as Americans have no future. Americans are a dead people that history is about to run over.
Paul Craig Roberts
BTW, for those still not paying attention, Russia/China mutual defense treaty is up next.
I am really, really glad that I do not have any money invested in Russia.
Based on everything I read, including here at ZH, it looks like my money would not be welcome anyway.
Peru I can recommend, Russia I cannot.
Interesting the sudden lack of snarky comments aimed at obummer and how strong Putin is from just a few months ago. Seems the U.S. really does know how to deal a shit sandwich to Russia if it wants. I don't like the house of Saud at all, but having them as a reciprical puppet sometimes has its advantages... Even if you don't like Obummer, which personally I don't, it does feel good to have some shameful level of American exceptionalism from time to time, even if it might be fleeting.
Putin is spoiling Goldman's paper rig of the gold market.
The City of London is not amused.
The LBMA's roof is on fire.
the joke 63 came and gone
let's hope it's not on us westerners.
Your move Vlad
Targeting the Goldman and JPM headquarters in NYC would be a start... We've seen what the gnome from NK has done to Sony... I wouldn't rule out a full-fledged cyber war on western financial institutions...
"Interesting the sudden lack of snarky comments aimed at obummer and how strong Putin is from just a few months ago."
Oil production per day: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production)
US: 11.1M bbl/day
Russia: 10.3M bbl/day
Total exports: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports)
US: $1 575B/yr (diversified, transportation equipment is largest category)
Russia: $515B/yr (80% from raw materials, primarily energy)
GDP: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29)
US: $16 244B/yr
Russia: $2 029B/yr
The Russians made the mistake of believing their own bullshit, and were called on it.
The real dirty secret is if the Western Banks can stop pricing the Ruble - it can halt Russian oil exports (how do you buy oil from Russia if the ruble is not accepted..) - Since Russia is less and less prone to accept US dollars for oil..
But this will force them back onto a US Dollar standard for the interim - a sort of temporary counter-check mate. Russia may take the economic nuclear option and shut off the pipelines to Europe (freeze bitchez..)
So maybe one or two more rounds of economic monkey hammering then the tanks in the Ukraine are gonna be the main play I figure.
"Russia may take the economic nuclear option and shut off the pipelines to Europe (freeze bitchez..)"
I do believe that threat is why they're now selling oil at $55/bbl rather than $100/bbl, and their currency is down 40% in a few short weeks.
They can sell it or not. The EU had concerns. BTUs are on a 40% off sale. Might be worth burning a little more oil this winter if it's cold in Germany. Or enjoy the gasoline savings if your excess generating capacity doesn't break that way and call it good.
The EU couldn't orchestrate a circle-jerk.
True. But the US and Saudi Arabia can orchestrate a 40% drop in energy prices. And did.
Tough, that coming on the 'profit' season for Russian energy exports.
If Saudi Arabia is playing along they gave them something big... like nukes.
The Americans made the mistake of believing their own bullshit, and were called on it.
Fixed that for you...
but fiat currencies are stable and safe "because they are backed by their government" ............
Wonder no more my friends, we now get to the real reason.... Traders Betting Russia Will Sell Gold....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/traders-betting-russia-s-next-m...
No, the us gave saudi the nod to bankrupt the shale companies.
They are not green energy companies, so bankrupcy is great!
This seems almost planned to force the hand of Russia and China to formally declare an end to the petro dollar system. Something stinks.
There is a difference between export and domestic consumption, and the amount it accounts to its GDP: http://www.awarablogs.com/putin-midterm-interim-results/ - Oil and Gas account for 18% of its GDP. It accounts for a lot of its export, around 70% and pretty much majority of it forex reserves and a huge portion of its budget is derived from oil sales. This year, Rosneft sold around $117B worth of oil and $75B worth of it is from domestic consumption, compared to $60B from the previous year.
A big one that Russia has not pulled out of its pocket yet is a sales of metals (titanium which is used for majority of US aircraft manufacturing) and forcing payments of oil and gas in their respective currency. Why are they not doing this? Don't know. But there is enough liquidity to hold out, as well there is 66% of the world left they can work/trade with.
or they could buy the january silver and gold contracts and ask for delivery.
Compare debt per country
http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock/
compare oil consumption per country
exports? US comsumes more than it produces
GDP.....and how much is wasted?
the only thing exceptional about america right now is how intertwined every economy on the globe is with its currency. pulling some strings here resonates on the other side of the globe, but the rest of the world has figured that out, and is taking measures to remedy the situation. The next check move from the East will be to drop dollar ties alltogether, of which the cessation of USDRUB trading is an example.
Wait What thinks the West's "check" move right now is not only early and foolish, but quixotic in thinking the East doesn't see the 1/2 dozen moves it has available to it.
Dual citizens use their secret weapon.
But what happens when it doesn't work?
WW fucking three.
...[P]ulling some strings here resonates on the other side of the globe, but the rest of the world has figured that out, and is taking measures to remedy the situation. -- Wait What
And Russia is openly discussing and leading those measures, including pricing oil outside the petro-dollar, working with the BRICS to create an alternative international development bank, and establishing an alternative to SWIFT for international payments. That and their oil and gas deals with China are a direct threat to the petro-dollar hegemony and the USA's strategic ambitions for, literally, world domination.
This attack on Russia is neither early, nor a sure bet (altho the financial cards appear stacked in the USA's favor at the present moment in time). But it's also early in the race -- can the USA and its allied minions financially and economically destroy Russia and force either Putin's conciliation or a favorable regime change leading to political dominance? Or will this attack fail and the backlash destroy the USA's financial and economic stranglehold on the rest of the world via the petro-dollar? In other words, it's war and there is no certain outcome...
The questions at present are simple: Whom among the BRICS will side openly with Russia? What form will those alliances take? And will those alliances buy enough time for the Russians such that the USA's fragile (relatively) economic and financial systems fail from it's imperial overreach?
Once these questions are answered, and they must be answered one way or the other, as Russia is being flogged as an example of what happens to those whom challenge the USA's imperial ambition, the next question is simple: How far will the USA go if other nations rise in effective support of mother Russia? (And will its "allies" follow it down that rabbit hole?)
Time for the popcorn - the coming attractions are over and the matinee is about to start.
Kind of like Zim was once an exceptional country in Africa
Obama- mighty Russian pawn-slaughterer. Tactics terminally confused with strategy
Here's some 'Merican 'ceptionalism for you. Sixty-Fucking-Five percent of children are in families which use at least one of the following:
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)
Medicaid
The National School Lunch Program
http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/65-percent-children-...
Bet you didn't hear about that on the evening joo-news.
'MERICA
"Here's some 'Merican 'ceptionalism for you. Sixty-Fucking-Five percent of children are in families which use at least one of the following:
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)"
Paid to breed. What gets rewarded gets done.
If 65% of your population can't afford to breed you have serious fucking problems.
It's more a case of collecting the breeding pay to live the idle lifestyle they desire. There's good money in breeding.
It's a virtuous circle. Elect those who promise them breeding pay. Breed. Wait.....and more voters demanding breeding pay. What could go wrong.
That's the right mantra of the false left-right paradigm anyway.
It's a little more complicated than that. Yeah, some do milk it, but others are trying to be productive and need it to reproduce. So the latter should just forget about having offspring and count themselves out of the next generation? That's how revolutions are born.
So no... it's more about pacifying people and giving them a little hope in a bleak world. When you have a child, you have a stake in the future and are more agreeable to the status quo.
wonder how many days oh1 didn't know where the rent was going to come from.
not many would be my guess.
The problem is, it ain't the best and the brightest that are being paid to reproduce, it's the low IQ, unmotivated and uneducated that are sucking on the tit of the entitlement programs. I pulled up an Los Angeles County Auditor Report on Welfare Fraud in LA County a few years back and kept it, just for giggles. They outlined the mission of the DPSS or Department of Public Social Services. Mind you, this is from 2003!
Background
DPSS is the largest locally operated social welfare department in the country, with a workforce of approximately 13,000 employees (! Imagine their generous pay and retirement benefits!). ...In calendar year 2002, the Department issued average monthly benefits of $172 Million (A MONTH! EVERY FRIGGING MONTH, a $172,000,000. That's over $2 Billion Dollars a year and what does it create? What does it do? Nothing. Absolutely Nothing!).
Imagine what it is now!
"it does feel good to have some shameful level of American exceptionalism" ...except when everyone grows to hate you
and he doesn't like obummer because the bum isn't sufficiently zionistic.
just a guess.
Yes ...... exceptionally shameful
@MacGruber
Dont know why you were downvoted so much, kudos for telling us the way you believe but the snarky Obama comments are getting old....like 'he doesn't know what he's doing", "they don't have a clue"...etc. Bullshit. They know EXACTLY what they are doing, they have the brightest most highly paid minds in the CIA and the NEO-CON NWO think tanks that money can print..i mean buy.
My question is this: How many people here feel that this is real? Is Putin the real deal? Is China the real deal or just the rising star?
I just want to say something that you know. DoChen has never fucked me over. I know who I don't like. DoChen is a first class guy. Unless I missed something in the last three years on ZH then I am sure of what I am saying. As far as I am concerned DoChen is solid and he is my friend. I do not let my friends take stab wounds in the back without saying somthing.
what's exceptional about being used like a two dollar whore?
"Interesting the sudden lack of snarky comments..."
One should avoid the trap of immediacy - a defining feature of life online. In the real world, events take time to unfold, and we are closer to the beginning than the end of this play, I'd say.
Obama has been Putin's poodle for 6 years.
It is the Saudis who are making Putin collateral damage in the effort to dominate oil prices.
I'm diggin your exceptionalizm there red, lets go to the house of blues you and I.
Treaty's ?
pfffffft
Publicus
People as uninformed and as gullible as Americans....
Did Roberts mean some of us here, too?
How are the uninformed and gullible of Sao Paulo & Rio doing these days...everything back to normal after the World Cup? ;-)
Take a rain check on that. I have to ask because I am not there.
But they do have the Olympics in Rio, 2016.... if their nightmare couldn’t get any worse.
Because, if I have my wish fulfilled, I hope they lose 7x0.
If they were really free, it would be 7.62X39 ;-)
You clearly have confused the summer with the winter games.
If you compare the banter here to MSM venues, this crowd looks pretty exceptional.
That's why I come here. It’s horrifying out there.
I went out last Saturday night and some people I met believe that we are bouncing back. The worse is behind.
And they ask me why I don't go out as often, go figure.
World War 3 will be fought on American soil as well (bioweapons?). So get your house in order. Billions will die for the NWO.
Can you recommend a safe redoubt where one can comfortably weather the impending end of the world?
Far enough away from the mushrooms to avoid the nasty business, but close enough to enjoy the warm breeze.
Fuck you pubic
Financial WW III just crippled your shithole country back to the stone age mother fucker you can't spin that you cocksucker
Fuck you and all your Russian cheerleaders here, news flash..you got collapsed fuck head
Say hello to my little frennn
You are an idiot. Putin is a fucking psychopath. I foresee Mushroom Clouds forming upon American Soil.
If Purin would have financially destroyed the USA that would be our response. So I do not see Putin acting any differently.
Russia cannot win a Nuclear War.
But I have some bad news for you. Neither can America, you fucking retarded imbecile.
Do not fret. You will not be reading about it in the next day's news. It will happen without warning.
But IT WILL HAPPEN.
So FUCK YOU for fucking me you God Damned psychopath.
It looks like DC has backed us into a corner that can only end in a firefight of some kind. They never expected Putin to push back, and Putin might not have considered that the US was willing to completely destroy Russia to maintain control of money and other nations. DC should not have this much power. They only use it to abuse us and foreigners whilst they remain insulated from it all. They do not represent America's interests, and are only interested in amassing more money and power for themselves. This will do us no good however it ends up.
"DC should not have this much power."
Wait, I think there's a document that adresses this
Now what closet did we put that in?
I think it's by the toilet...
I think they fed it to the shredder.
Hey flower lips,
Putin has not pushed back with anything. Sure, he is simply obstinate enough to keep hitting himself in the head with a hamer. Russian people will take control of that hammer and finish him off soon.
Putin lovers will have to shift their love to Edrogan before Turkey goes down the same sewer pipe.
Hey plebian,
Putin is more of a Roman than you. He puts his country first which is more than anyone can say about the gamblers in DC who treat America like a poker game. What's a shallow minded, hot tempered plebian like you running around with a Roman Emperor's name? It doesn't fit you, it's way too big and heavy. If you were in the army of Caesar Augustus you wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes.
fleur de lils, noblesse oblige still applies, doesn't it?
Yes, one would think so. But then again, given the current variety of amateur leadership that controls the near and abroad, one would be dismayed.
Nope. They fully anticipated Putin resisting. They are much sicker than any of us imagine. And they are fully American, remember Manifest Destiny?
Tricky times call for loyalists of the first order for the 2016 Tag Team Wrasslin' Mega Warmongers.
A Team Jebbie
B Team. Shrillary
Others welcome to provide a fake debate then back to your cages.
I'm surprised you think Jeb Bush would do such things.
'defend the Urkaine, Taiwan, and South Korea''
In this case, the U.S. wouldn’t defend. The best U.S. strategy would be letting it fall to anarchy.
It'd be a real bitch for Russia to settle the power vacuums.
The Russians taking the Taiwan and South Korea production off line would benefit China.
Uh, more specifically:
Russia takes Eastern Ukraine plus Odessa.
North Korea attacks South Korea.
China invades and seizes Taiwan.
All coordinated, all at the same time.
Obama would define the term Epic Fail and replace James Earl Carter as the all time WORST President in history with his blubbering bullshit as a result of his inaction.
What's your timeframe for all of that?
Russia will take ALL of Ukraine if they want it.
NK loses to SK. South Korea can take on and beat North Korea without the USA (Seoul would be very heavily damaged with LOTS of casualties of course).
China will eventually get Taiwan anyway.
China will get what they want of Siberia in time as well...
* * *
I completely agree that Obama will be (already is, IMO) the worst US President ever.
Philippines & the whole South China Sea could be in play:
China and Taiwan share claims to virtually the entire South China Sea, a legacy of the Chinese civil war when the Communists split from the Nationalists and eventually took control of the Chinese mainland in 1949. The Nationalists settled on Taiwan, and still claim to be the legitimate rulers of greater China.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei also claim parts of the potentially oil-rich South China Sea.
While China-Taiwan ties have warmed since Ma Ying-jeou was elected Taiwan president in 2008, there has been no political reconciliation or a lessening of military distrust. China has never ruled out force to bring Taiwan under its control.
But if conflict ever broke out in the Spratlys, analysts and military attaches believe China would seek to protect Itu Aba as its own, strongly aware of its strategic value.
The Spratlys are one of the main flashpoints in the South China Sea, where military fortifications belonging to all claimants but Brunei are dotted across some of the world's busiest shipping lanes.
China for example occupies eight shoals and reefs but its strategists have long bristled at Vietnam's two dozen holdings. Manila occupies eight reefs and islands and Malaysia seven. Incidents at sea in recent years, such as ships getting rammed or attempted blockades, have usually involved China against the Philippines or Vietnam.
SMH: Why is China keeping quiet about its claim on this South China Sea island?That why the US opened a part time base in Darwin, not to mention annual Air Force exercises:
AUSTRALIA has struck a defence agreement with the United States that prepares the ground for more American troops, aircraft and ships to operate from Australian bases to ward off threats in South East Asia.
US to extend Darwin marine base as Tony Abbott meets Barack Obama to push G20 agendaSHRAGS
It won’t matter, because these scenarios 'Costs' will all become unsustainable really fast
Dr. Joseph Tainter: No, and that is one of the recurrent theories about why societies collapse, that they depleted their resources. I don’t see that in looking at the historical record. What I see, instead, is that you have a situation where societies grow more complex and more costly. They reach a point of diminishing returns, and it becomes essentially impossible to solve future problems. They become weakened fiscally because the population is taxed beyond its limits, the population of subsistence farmers becomes taxed beyond what they are capable of supporting, and so the society becomes weakened fiscally and the population ultimately loses its loyalty because they pay, for example, very high taxes, and yet don’t see an adequate return to that cost.
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/october-1-2014-dr-joseph-tainter-the-collapse-of-complex-societies/
+1 for Tainter. Haven't read his book (on my ever expanding reading list), but familiar with his thesis & that of shocks to highly complex (and energy dependant) systems causing changes of many orders of magnitude over very limited time periods.
Just to be clear, the Nationalists 'settled' on Taiwan after the Chi-comms pushed them off the mainland. Taiwan was the first solid ground they stepped on with their backs to the beach at the mainland...
You must be too confident in KOR's Capabilities.
Last time I checked, they're still dependent on the USA's Forward Deployed Troops, and their Draft Dodgers are piling into the USA for the good life. PRK may have its hands full if they War against KOR; but PRK has soooo many more Troops.
Combat Readiness may be an issue; but if they're going to invade, they'll probably be given enough fuel for a one way trip - i.e., Live off the Land and KOR supplies or Die.. I'd even say that they may even "borrow" some ammo, guns, and gear from their old Korean War Comrads in exchange for favors in the Future.
Don't Forget - when CHN joined in the Fray, the "Allied" Forces were almost run off the Peninsula - save for McArthur's Inchon Landings. Something tells me that they won't be able to pull it off again. If CHN joins in, I don't think the USA's Gator Navy or Carrier Task Force will be able to secure Air Superiority nor Sea Lane Control.
Of course, if CHN joins in the Korean Arena, they' DEFINITELY take on TWN; and All of POTUS' Men, Women, and MIC Vendors won't be able to hold them back. As long as JPN's Civilian Population Zones aren't ruthlessly attacked, they won't join in either Front.
Funny part is, some JPN talkng head had the gall to present a scenario on the National/Public Channel where they'd send their forces to help TWN defend itself - all the while being undercut/cheated out in Business overseas. Lovely. Of course, CHN-JPN Trade Volumes trump that by a long shot.
you have your military history chronology mixed up. The Inchon landings were during the first phase of the war when N. Korea had almost overran the entire country by itself.
But yah, China's entry kicked the UN's forces butt...goes to show...never engage in a land war in asia...now who said that
My info is a little outdated, but from personal experience I can tell you that the wargaming scenarios generally posit that PRK attacks en masse in the winter when the rice paddies are frozen and they can move overland. MSR 1 and most of the N-S roads leading up the DMZ go through E-W ridges like this:
===}| |{===
The walls of the ridge cuts are filled with explosives that would be blasted to block the roads to Seoul and points south. The PRK would send a horde of ground troops and armor south in a mad dash to occupy Seoul while countless surface to surface rocket batteries maintained inside caves on the PRK side would rocket the ever loving fuck out of Seoul and send more SCUD type missles to take out the USAF bases in Osan, Suwon and Kunsan that the PATRIOT battalion covering those bases could handle (they wouldn't be able to reload fast enough to keep up). US army troops are concentrated up north and their role is to serve as a speedbump and hopefully buy enough time for reinforcements to arrive before the PRK takes Seoul. Fortunately, it is unlikely that PRK could amass enough forces on the border quickly enough to remain undetected to have any element of surprise or maintain sufficient numerical superiority to make it work.
Any shit goes down over there it would likely be a combination of coordinate sabotague on key infrastructure combined with a massive and sustain rocket bombardment of Seoul and PRK special forces would attempt to sieze key leadership of the SK government. That is assuming, of course, that PRK wasn't backed by China, which is rather unlikely. The PRK for China is like having a crazy junkyard dog chained to your porch to help incentive the neighbors to keep a healthy distance.
The PRK troops would be half starved and to emaciated to put up a decent fight,soon as they got over the border they'd just want a half decent feed.
History doesn't agree... As a small child I got to hear about the "enhanced interrogation" of the captured, the more things change...
Seoul, on the other hand has actually changed, if the chemicals at the industrial facilities that have been built along the river the last 40 years get hit by artillery or rockets from the North, then Seoul wouldn't be much of a prize...
I stand corrected on the Inchon Landings in the War Sequence. The Cruiser I was on was actually "in" those perennial Inchon Re-enactment Exercises decades ago.
I've been to KOR, saw those Tank Traps, and even went to the DMZ. They'll get over them. Seoul is within range of Artillery - Heck, they'll just Helo/Plane Drop, Para Sail(ROTFL!!) , get tossed by Trebuchets en masse (a la Monty Python), or pile on dirt/padding/pontoons over the DMZ/Mines. IMHO, there won't be enough AAA or SAMs to stop their assault. There's no way Mr. Kim will do a half assed job should he decide to invade - he can (economically, if it applies and politically) afford ONE INVASION.
IMHO, KOR probably won't win another War against the North. The (Pooled) Money kids Dodge the Draft; and we don't have enough Troops to man the Gear we left there. If we kept more Troops there, the scum among them will cause too much trouble on the populace...(hence some reasons why we're hated abroad)
SIDEBAR RIDDLE: If I wasn't assigned to the DMZ, how the heck was I - who had a Security Clearance - able to go to the DMZ?
ANS: I went on a Tour as a Kid in a School Band Trip. One of our Chaperones was a DARPA Weenie; and he couldn't get near the place... While most of you saw the Liberty Bell, Statue of Liberty, GW/Jefferson Monuments - I did that AND visited the DMZ, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki. Did the Pearl Harbor visits as a Midshipman.
Why would the Russians want it? Take the Dunbass and other resource-rich areas in the East, complete the land bridge with Crimea, and take Odessa. Without Odessa and those other regions, Ukraine becomes a land-locked country with little-to-natural resources, little exports, and no deep water route to faciliate trade.
Question here is what does Putin do and how does he react there military - does he come back to the table and pull out Russian troops/advisor in Ukraine or double-down and even escalate further including something Moldova?
johngaltfla
You should consider rewriting the world Manchurian Fiction.
The Manchurian Candidate (1959), by Richard Condon, is a political thriller novel about the son of a prominent US political family who is brainwashed into being an unwitting assassin for a Communist conspiracy.
It doesn't have to be rewritten, we're livin it.
I wasn’t' thinking that far ahead!
With these players Escrava, you have to think three or four moves ahead ;-)
I'll admit it's an interesting conjecture, and it dovetails well with the guided view of the world promoted by the West. I would go so far as to say it makes perfect sense from a Western point of view.
Its weakness is that the Western point of view may not exactly correspond with the point of view of the various players in those situations. Let's take a look, shall we?
Well, if Russia were Big Poppa Commie seeking to rebuild the Soviet Union (and carry out whatever other evil plans are ascribed to them), this would be expected. Strip away the hype and innuendo, though, and there's no evidence that Russia even wants any part of the Ukraine. There's certainly no rational reason that they would want it, even if the EU and USA hadn't already destroyed it. The whole "land bridge" theory is easily dismissed as well, since they're building a bridge across the Kerch Strait to Crimea. Its $4 billion price tag must seem like a bargain given the problems in Ukraine.
Considering the history of post WW2 Korea and the horrific devastation imposed upon the north during the Korean War, I think it's unlikely that they would attack anyone unless they were backed into a corner and given no other choice. Their bluster and occasional sabre-rattling appear more to be the expression of a government that worries about being attacked than that of one plotting an invasion.
China pretty much owns Taiwan already. There's no need for a forced reunification when patience will provide a voluntary reunification. Eventually Taiwan will reach the decision that the costs of participating in Uncle Sam's protection racket exceed the benefits.
In the interest of giving credit where credit is due, I believe he's already accomplished this, and in spectacular fashion.
Say what you will about Carter. He certainly made some notable blunders. Nevertheless, in terms of domestic economic policy, he was more conservative than Bush, McCain, or Romney.
You're kind of stupid, in a funny sort of way.
"Say what you will about Carter. He certainly made some notable blunders. Nevertheless, in terms of domestic economic policy, he was more conservative than Bush, McCain, or Romney."
After the well-publicized 'misery index' came out, IN RODE REAGAN (and, the introduction of 'hedonics' in calculating the so-called 'inflation rate' regarding the payouts of SS and other 'government' benefits which had been tied by Congress to the REAL INFLATION RATE' that JIMMAH had allowed to go to 12% per annum).
Of COURSE, PAPA Bush (head of the CIA under the Peanut-farmer in Chief before he was made V.P. under RAYGUN), and Kissinger (who miraculously never seems to fucking age) were in the background of those (and ALL SUBSEQUENT) administrations.
IRAN-CONTRA and 'all those hostages' and the price of gasoline redoubling and the unemployment climbing like ivy on a trellis in mid-summer and the need to vote for a peanut farmer from Georgia because everyone knew what FORD was (and did during the Kennedy Assasination hearings regarding the introduction of the 'magic bullet theory' which got HIM APPOINTED as president after Nixon fired Agnew) seems to have jaded your memory.
I still have a six-pack of 'Billy Beer' to sell.
I'll make you a REAL GOOD deal on it. I think you're a mark (oops, I mean, 'man') who can tell the true value of a false memory (oops, I mean, 'investment').
'I lusted in my heart' became 'I DID NOT, HAVE SEX, WITH THAT WOMAN!'; and 'I smoked, but didn't inhale', became, 'WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?'.
CARTER was 'CONSERVATIVE'?
HOLY fucking SHIT!
NEXT STORY: Z.H. poster claims that Hillary is 'more consevative' than JEB...
Well, this will be a bit difficult without resorting to bold text, all caps, and exclamation points, but I'll try.
Carter deregulated the airline, trucking, rail, communications, and finance industries. He reduced the top tax rate on capital gains to 28% from as high as 98%. He also said the biggest opposition to his policies came from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jimmy_Carter
By the way, while composing your spittle-flecked invective, you utterly failed to address what I actually said: in terms of domestic economic policy, he was more conservative than Bush, McCain, or Romney.
You might find the world less bewildering if you worked on improving your reading comprehension.
"By the way, while composing your spittle-flecked invective, you utterly failed to address what I actually said"
I am not quite sure who you were going after there fourth down but I do like your vindictive writing style there. I may have to borrow that line from you for future use There are just so many douchebags out there I think your comment is spot on no matter who it was directed at. +1 from me to you. Peace brother.
+1 for all the above
"Carter deregulated the airline, trucking, rail, communications, and finance industries. He reduced the top tax rate on capital gains to 28% from as high as 98%. He also said the biggest opposition to his policies came from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party."
from a Old World/Classic point of view, what he did was not conservative, it was liberal. Meanwhile what you call the "liberal" wing of the Dems is what we would call socialists, or at least social democrats
sometimes I think the American political vocabulary was willfully sabotaged so that political discussion would constantly be mislabeling issues, and so go awry on that
the biggest deregulator in US history was nevertheless Clinton. He scrapped Glass-Steagall, and so created the TBTF problem, and so the megabanks
Ghordius is back in all his glory, I wish you a merry christmas and a very happy New Year.
johngaltfla
As the ruble goes down, and as the price of oil & gas go down, Russia (the state) will also be less able to buy gold. They may even come under pressure to export gold if they want imports.
I have heard twice today that Russians are now running to buy hard goods like appliances and cars (anticipating hyperinflation).
"The Law of Unintended Consequences" strikes again!
Putin's billionaire pals Timchenko and Rotenberg (and even billionaire Putin himself) will have no problem however buying GOLD with all of their money!
DoChen, keep in mind that Russia has enough gold reserves to partiallly peg the Ruble to the precious metal; add in to the basket Platinum and Palladium (both heavily mined in Russia) along with a peg to the price of Brent and the USD becomes the weakened currency instead of the aggressor. Add the Chinese accepting this new Ruble and fixing the Yuan to the same and you have a violent dollar devaluation much like what we have seen with the Russian currency. The problem is we can not and will not attack China nor impose any type of sanctions against them. It is only a matter of time before Russia and China coordinate an economic retaliatory attack on the US leaving the American economy in shambles and the East becoming the dominant economic bloc for this century.
Where have you been?
Why do you think US is reacting the way we are reacting?
“The BRIC’S Bank is anti Petrodollar, not anti Money Power” -- Anthony Migchels
...The problem is we can not and will not attack China nor impose any type of sanctions against them. -- johngaltfla
Not right now perhaps. But after we've dealt with Russia (providing we have a winning hand)? Katie bar the door. That's one of the purposes of our military "pivot" toward China -- containing China's rising regional ambition. And China knows this...
Point is, if Russia serves as our successful example, and we have control of China's oil and gas supplies, .gov and Wall Street believes they will have their foot on China's economic and financial neck.
Are you the CIA station chief in Bogota?
Poster QUESTION:
"Are you the CIA station chief in Bogota?"
ANSWER:
(The T.V. comes on, swarming your senses with blue light and calming music, keeping you rooted in your Barcalounger. The 'authority figure', a young and obviously virile man, begins the pitch, and smiling, knowledgebly and with a sense of the inside joke that you think need to see and hear and experience, states...)
"I'm not REALLY a C.I.A. station chief; but I DO play one (on T.V.)."
Not satisfied, the 'poster' holds up his fingers, showing the number of commercial programming events he has endured while awaiting the second part of 'Naked People On A Desert Island' (brought to you for free by MSM, INC. after the poster catches up on the satellite dish debt debit payments, and channels 69 and 666 once again are offered without the interrupted demands to make payment).
SARCASM abounds...
What DoChen says is true. That is what is going on. DoChen does not have skin in the game there as best I know so I don't how he is giving bad info. That is not his style anyway. I DO have skin in the game in Russia and it has not been pretty of late. That is not DoChen's fault.
Meh. Blame DoChen anyway. Then we can add "We DoChen'd some folks" to the repertoire.
NB: I think DoChen adds a lot of value to the discourse here.
Well, a lot of good bloggers are getting junked. DoChen was talking about leaving ZH. That is bad because then we all lose from his South American acccess. The guy is a really nice guy if you talk him privately. He is not trying to fuck anyone. I have some good friends that are ZHer that I talk to and know they are good folks. Maybe they aren't but neither am I. They are reasonable folks. I have no idea anyone is fucking with Miffed Micrioboligist. We do not have many females as it is and she has said anything that I found to be wrong of offensive.
On top of that a couple of assholes decided to take a few swings at Banzai7 a couple of days back. That is not OK with me.
Just part of the divide and conquer routine. Trash the smart ones, get them to leave, then have your way with the weak-minded...
Yes. It seems like a lot of the good stalwarts here like DoChen, WB7, Miffed, et al. are increasingly being singled out in some sort of effort to make them throw up their hands and walk away. (I didn't add /s to my comment but I wasn't actually taking a shot at him, if it came across that way).
I noticed that too. On certain topics it lookes like someone--or several--are junking everyone regardless of post or response. It's a bit like when street demonstrations attract losers who throw bricks through windows, torch cars, etc. These downvoters are not disagreeing with the information, the are just probably being anti everything. Or they might be paid trolls for the elites who are getting concerned about their grip on power. They are not adding to the debate, just wrecking things like the idiot vandals they are.
The black market for C notes in Moscow must be crazy
Maybe a good time to go over and shop for a Russian virgin? Or a semi virgin?
Maybe a nice girl that's pretty and doesn't piss you off...
"That's kind of how the Western world views everybody else. It's a dangerous combination of arrogance and ignorance."
Recently posted at ZeroHedge:
MAP: Russia Isolated from "the world"
KEY:
• The world
• Isolated Russia
• Not the world
“becoming isolated from the rest of the Western world”
There are few things more pleasant than being isolated from the Western world nowadays.
Also, quite a big bit of Russia is already in the eastern world.
True, but Russia has traditionally been a net food importer, with a trade deficit in agricultural and food products and one of the main importers of meat and raw sugar in the world. It looks like grains could be their food staple now.
Miffed
Monsanto to the rescue!
TRADITIONS are actually kind of a way to help people who wish to relive their past glories a method of mind-fucking themselves.
Forgive me, my crassness.
TODAY, Russia is the number ONE exporter of Natural Gas in the world, and the number TWO exporter of Crude Oil. It seems that they can AFFORD to import wheat and sugar NOW (unlike the times when the Zionist bankers FORCED them to run their historic defecits, back in times forgotten (but REMEMBERED in 'traditions').
I can't believe that people are junking you miffed because I do not see why. Maybe they don't know you are a female and an intelligent at that. There is nothing more fun for me in life than debating an intelligent female. I don't like that you are getting junked Miffed. I do not remember you ever doing anyone wrong. It seemed to me like a were a nice person. I think you would like my Russian wife but she a bit crabby of late and you know why. Maybe one day though I will hook you up with her. Not today but one day.
Dear Mani,
That was sweet. I bow in honor. But, truly, it's ok. I know I may have made an error posting as a woman because anonymity allows for a more honest response from everyone. I know I could never maintain the pretense. Hiding behind an assumed identity is just not my style. So, being in a man cave, I accept whatever I get. If I crumble from a few down votes it says more about me than them. ;-)
I spoke of tradition and NET food importation. Obviously things are different now and Russia is far better positioned in so many ways than the States at this juncture. We have outsourced our manufacturing base, irresponsibly indebted ourselves, created an entitled, uneducated population, allowed the Fed to erode the Dollar with resulting inflation at home and abroad and now we are teasing a Bear in arrogance. I shudder at the idiocy and am worried what future is in store for our children.
I would be happy to meet your wife any time.
Miffed
Whilst true that Russia has traditionally been a net food importer, it has made great strides in improving its grain yields as it continues to recover from its command economy past.
"The International Grains Council (IGC) puts Russia’s total grain production at 85.8 million tonnes in 2013-14, compared to 67.1 million the year before. The wheat crop is put at 51.5 million tonnes, up from 37.7 million, while the figure also includes 16.5 million tonnes of barley, up from 13.9 million and 4.8 million tonnes of oats, up from 4 million. Rye production in 2013-14 is put at 3.5 million tonnes, up from 2.1 million."
And: "Russia is a major grain exporter. The IGC puts its total grain imports at just 400,000 tonnes in 2013-14, compared with 1.2 million following the poor harvest of the previous year, while its exports are put at 18.8 million tonnes, up from 15.5 million."
Source: http://bit.ly/1xrbiAe
Not sure why anyone would junk what you said.
Sometimes, I wish I could isolate myself from the "western" world.
And when the western financial system collapses from false money and false markets, Russia's separation from this cesspool will prove to be a great boon to its people.
Ruble in the Jugle
So much for that Kumbaya shit.
You don't suppose Vlad would take this personally,
and go after Obozo with a meat cleaver;)
There's always hope!
LOL, Harrison ! I see what you did there with the hope thing. Well-played.
"The truth of the matter is that for all the challenges we face, all the problems that we have, if you had to be — if you had to choose any moment to be born in human history, not knowing what your position was going to be, who you were going to be, you’d choose this time. The world is less violent than it has ever been. It is healthier than it has ever been. It is more tolerant than it has ever been. It is better fed then it’s ever been. It is more educated than it’s ever been."
-quote from Pres. O'liar, 2014
I'm not so sure. As a child of the Truman administration I've watched the freedoms I grew up with taken away little by little and can surely see a big difference today. In fact, most people of younger generations, even after being explained the differences, can't relate to any degree of what life was like.
And to be clear, I'm not talking about material things. And I also understand my vantage point was as a person of non-color. But I often wonder if the people of color are better off now under the current slavery they endure versus what they had before. I honestly am not qualified in that area. But I do know where I grew up the police state wasn't coming down so hard on them as it appears to now. Rose colored glasses? Who knows...
He didn't say we are more free than we've ever been...
"Buy Rubles and Russian stock while the blood is flowing in the streets."
Hey "NATO round", if you're saying what I think you're saying, then... Russia is playing a nice tactical currency game, to short squeeze some naked guys in London and NY:
Let the RUB go down, before re-issuing it with PM and/or Energy backing. The same fuckers in London and NY who shorted them, are themselves now short on Rubles.
Dju get that? Brilliant!
That would be an interesting ploy, akin to judo, using the opponent's strength against himself.
FYI the 7.62x54mmR is a Russian cartridge. The NATO analogue is 7.62x51.
To pick nits, 7.62 NATO or .308 is a much more modern round than 7.62X54R. The American version of that round is more like 30-40 Krag, though it is lower powered than the Russian round. The US had gone to rimless casings in its military rifles around the turn of the 20th century.
Vlad coud knock out all of his debt and turn a surplus just by selling all the 91/30s he's got in his Siberian warehouses
Yes but Americans and the US Military are now serfs with fewer rights than illegal aliens in their own country.
Americans have been sold out by both political parties while the Pentagon just goes along with it.
65 million serfs on welfare and food stamps can't be wrong.
Yes, Freddie, that disturbs me too. We may disagree on (the disagreeable) Putin, but you do have America's plight nailed.
And we did it all to ourselves.
the banking mafia did it
...with the best politicians money can buy.
Fixed it for you.
Interesting.
Let us not forget what China recently said - they wish to divest themselves of treasuries. They can buy future contracts for oil from Russia for these. Russia can then use the treasuries as they wish.
I think China doesn't bind with Russia until they have significantly reduced their exposure to the dollar.
Yes. But the cut off banking part...may make Russia US Treasury sales impossible ?
Who will buy Russian held US Treasuries now ....China might just sell theirs now and flood the treasury market immediately.
The rest of the world outside of the EU and US
Nah - when global panic sets in, people will reflexively do what they've always done and flee into USTs and USD denominated assets, at least at first.
I believe China has been steadily reducing its exposure to USD. It may be the holder of record for a boat load of USTs, but that doesn't mean they haven't been pledging them as collateral for hard assets. They're buying up tons of Africa. If I was China, I'd be buying up mines and other resources with borrowed dollars secured by USTs and when things go boom, default on the loan and let the banksters keep their paper.
Love the 7.62X54R; hate rimless cartridges. Well, I got to sell my fling on the Ruble back to the market on the same calender day I bought it; for only a $1700 hit. I thought there would be some good reaction to the interest rate hike; but I guessed wrong. oh well. PKM's forever !!
You bought Rubles? :) It's only fiat man, WTF were you thinking.
Inaccurate and unknowable.
Neither Vlad nor anyone else knows if Russia has enough dollars (or any other currency, for that matter) to see itself through the current crisis.
How long until the lower oil prices sparks a bond crisis? That's how long Russia needs to hold out if it wants to come out on top. Once a bond crisis really starts picking up steam, the Fed would have to do a massive, and I mean MASSIVE print so that failing businesses get bailed out. Frackers would be going out of business like crazy, and all of those companies that sold junk bonds to fund stock buybacks would be fucked while the spigot for stocks would be shut off violently. Interest rates on everything, except possibly USTs would go through the roof. How many CDSs and interest rate derivatives are tied into this shit?
If Russia doesn't lose this round, expect more printing and government theft of anything not tied down in order to keep its cronies in business. I think I need a drink.
Russian goods in gold and/or yuan!
Apple Stops Online Sales in Russia Over Ruble Fluctuations
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/apple-stops-online-sales-in-rus...