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Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since Dec 2008

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Great news: The prices consumers pay dropped 0.3% MoM in November - the biggest deflation since Dec 2008. Of course, The Fed will be in "considerable" panic mode at this data and may choose to crush the hope of so many that rate hikes are coming in mid-2015 as definitive evidence that the US economy is well on the road to recovery. Ex-Food-and-Energy, prices rose 1.7% YoY - slightly missing expectations of +1.8%. Of course, a big driver of this 'transitory' disinflation is a 10.5% YoY drop in Gasoline and 6.6% MoM drop in November. Despite this huge drop, and thge promises of various talking heads, airfares rose 1.36% in November (after also rising 2.39% in October) - so much for the benefits to the consumer.

 

 

The breakdown by component, showing the 6.6% plunge in gas prices, and the fuel oil index dropping 3.5% in November, its ninth consecutive decline.

Since everyone is most concerned by energy prices, here is what the BLS had to say:

The energy index declined for the fifth month in a row, falling 3.8 percent in November. The gasoline index continued to decrease sharply, falling 6.6 percent. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 8.9 percent in November.) The fuel oil index fell 3.5 percent in November, its ninth consecutive decline. The gasoline index has fallen 10.5 percent over the last 12 months, and the fuel oil index has declined 10.1 percent. The index for natural gas also declined in November, decreasing 1.7 percent, but it has risen 3.2 percent over the last year. Electricity was the only major component index to rise in November; it increased 0.1 percent and has risen 2.8 percent over the past year.

So while gas prices dropped again, food rose, with the food index up 0.2 percent in November after increasing 0.1 percent in October.

The index for food at home rose 0.1 percent in November and has risen 3.4 percent over the past year. Indexes for major grocery store food groups were mixed in November, with three increases and three declines. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.6 percent in November after declining in October. The index for beef and veal rose 0.8 percent, its tenth consecutive increase. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.5 percent, and the index for other food at home increased 0.4 percent. In contrast, the fruits and vegetables index turned down, falling 0.7 percent in November after a 0.9 percent increase in October. The index for fresh vegetables rose 1.8 percent, but the fresh fruits index fell 2.9 percent. The indexes for dairy and related products and for cereals and bakery products both fell 0.2 percent. All six groups increased over the past 12 months, with increases ranging from 0.2 percent (cereals and bakery products) to 9.1 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs.) The index for food away from home increased 0.4 percent in November, its largest increase since January 2012, and has risen 2.9 percent  over the past year.

And here is how everything else did:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in November following a 0.2 percent increase in October. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, with the rent index rising 0.3 percent and the index for owners' equivalent rent increasing 0.2 percent. The index for lodging away from home was unchanged in November. The index for medical care rose 0.4 percent in November, its largest increase since August 2013. The index for prescription drugs rose 0.6 percent, while the physicians' services index increased 0.5 percent. The airline fares index increased 1.4 percent after a 2.4 percent increase in October. The index for alcoholic beverages rose as well, increasing 0.8 percent. In contrast to these increases, the apparel index fell 1.1 percent and the index for used cars and trucks declined 1.2 percent. Several indexes posted more modest declines; the indexes for recreation, for household furnishings and operations, and for personal care all declined 0.2 percent, and the new vehicles index fell 0.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.7 percent over the last 12 months. The shelter index rose 3.0 percent over that span, and the index for medical care increased 2.5 percent. Several indexes have declined over the last 12 months, including airline fares, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and recreation.

And now, back to the Fed.

 

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Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:38 | 5562407 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

The cost to remodel my cardboard box under the interstate just dropped. #WINNING!

 

With oil prices this low, I'm thinking about dousing it gasoline & setting it on fire to collect on the insurance money.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:39 | 5562414 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

May I suggest Costco for future cardboard boxes. 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:45 | 5562419 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

if you're a Hobbit

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:51 | 5562450 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since Dec 2008

 

Great news for people with 29.5 hr/wk jobs......which is a lot of people these days.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:52 | 5562455 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Pull up your Big Boy pants & raise interest rates, Mr. Yellen!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:58 | 5562477 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If you want to commit suicide.....just do it.....don't involve the rest of us.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:27 | 5562556 OceanX
Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:43 | 5562423 Bearhug Bernanke
Bearhug Bernanke's picture

"Welcome to Costco. I love you."

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:48 | 5562442 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

"Ah, you talk like a fag, and your shit's all retarded." 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:02 | 5562496 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

escape velocity.............................Miss

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:19 | 5562537 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

But, but if the economy is slowing with lower Baltic Index, etc , and fewer items are being shipped, then that means fewer boxes available. The cost of replacing  your home will increase...unless it is priced like physical gold vs the ETF.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:19 | 5562540 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

That's some tight shit.

http://youtu.be/Dyh5v_GizaY

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:28 | 5562563 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Lower prices? Where? Not seeing any myself.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:39 | 5562409 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

I think I need another TV.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:16 | 5562460 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Books are better for you. May I suggest this one?

http://www.amazon.com/RADICALS-Alinsky-published-Vintage-Paperback/dp/B00ES2AI12/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1418824329&sr=1-3&keywords=rules+for+radicals

 

John Boehner gives it 5 thumbs up.

 

Mitch McConnell......I peed myself.

 

Nancy Pelosi......I have the first edition copy signed copy by Lucifer and Hillary......really hard to find.

 

Elizabeth Warren.....never heard of it.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:21 | 5562547 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Perhaps going back to the old tomes would serve you best :

http://www.amazon.com/Steal-Abbie-Hoffman-co-conspirator-accessory/dp/B0...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:33 | 5562589 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Perhaps going back to the old tomes would serve you best :

http://tenant.net/Community/steal/steal.html

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:59 | 5562486 RyeWhiskey
RyeWhiskey's picture

"I has teevee on everey waoul"

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:12 | 5562524 JRobby
JRobby's picture

BUY IT NOW!!!!!  The 4 new features it has vs the same priced TV from 3 years ago will be used in the calculation to reducing CPI.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:22 | 5562553 hairball48
hairball48's picture

The best cardboard boxes come from IBM. A NYC bum interviewed on FOX years ago said so. IBM used good quality corrogated cardboard the bum said.

FYI

hairball

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:30 | 5562581 OceanX
OceanX's picture

 

"...Pretty much you are only bound by your creativity, and the police"


Useful tips: http://vagabond101.com/lean-to---city.html

 

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:39 | 5562410 Silver Short Seller
Silver Short Seller's picture

That's right deflation! When will ZH admit they are wrong?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:42 | 5562417 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

Beef Tenderloin: 2012 = $6.99 a pound

Beef Tenderloin: 2014 = $12.99 a pound

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:43 | 5562429 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

ATT Uverse

2013 = $145/mo.

2014 = $205/mo

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:01 | 5562488 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Went to the store to buy some steak.....came back home with hamburger.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 12:37 | 5563247 Esso
Esso's picture

Damn, you can afford hamburger?

 

You must be a 1%er.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:09 | 5562519 JRobby
JRobby's picture

AT&T is a horrible corporation. They should change their name to "Hostage Communication Empire"

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:12 | 5562527 pods
pods's picture

That would be fitting but Time Warner has already copyrighted that.

pods

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:36 | 5562603 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

My health plan: $6K more this year.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:46 | 5562433 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

Simple don't eat, no inflation for you. 

 

doxycycline 

2013 = $20/bottle

2014 = $1,849/bottle

 

Story was up here yesterday.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:07 | 5562513 JRobby
JRobby's picture

doxycycline

What does this cure / correct?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:12 | 5562526 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Presidential sore throats?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:19 | 5562538 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Presidential anal sores?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:23 | 5562552 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Probably one of my number one choices for antibitoics if we go back to third world conditions, along with flagyl ...ricketsial diseases, Lyme disease, bubonic plague. ( Too bad not as long a shelf life as other antibiotics.)

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:09 | 5562515 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

What is that?  Some kind of antibiotic?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:13 | 5562529 jughead
jughead's picture

correct

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:20 | 5562549 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Looked it up:  Tetracycline family, used to treat clap and some other VDs, also to prevent malaria.  Some nasty side effects.  Stay healthy, my friends.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:00 | 5562491 RyeWhiskey
RyeWhiskey's picture

You still eat ? Relic!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:17 | 5562535 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Food and eating are soooo overrated.

 

Recent advert: "SALE - Save $26 on a bag of frozen lobster tails". Deals to be found.

A jumbo bag of farm raised GMO franken shrimp in my grocery store was on sale for just under $60.

Hah!

Look online for the best recipes for Maryland fried cat food patties made with Old Bay spice and lemon peel fried in holy corn oil (that's the oil from the corns of a holy man).  Be certain to buy some extra toilet paper too.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 13:18 | 5563472 begintowin
begintowin's picture

That's the front end of retail price inflation the consumer pays. But what is not realized is the hidden inflation of smaller sized product packaging.

For example, ice cream used to be sold in 1/2 gallon (2 quarts) size packages. Now the shopper pays the same price or higher for only 1 1/2 quarts.  The shadow of stealth inflation is a double whammy for the consumer.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:40 | 5562415 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

IF: Fed raises rates in first-half 2015

THEN:  Full-blown deflation

ELSE:  Disinflation

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 12:00 | 5563000 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Yup.

Bill Gross called it, and it looks like all those windfall consumer facing corps will be first into the woodchipper.

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:44 | 5562427 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Trading is so much easier now that data doesn't matter.  I just close my eyes and click.

 

Fuck you Ben and Janet.

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:45 | 5562430 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

So; You want to see inflation?  Just get sick, and need some med's. It's not 2013!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:45 | 5562437 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

I just get the electricity bill like 50%more

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:48 | 5562448 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Anyone belieiving the "numbers" spewed out anymore is a total doofus

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:51 | 5562449 blown income
blown income's picture

Shits and giggles 

Lafayette la to Bush in Houston tx

 

1 hour flight  245 miles 

$313 

 

http://www.bing.com/flights/search?q=flights+from+lafayette+to+houston&o...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:54 | 5562456 blown income
blown income's picture

10 years ago used to go to Vegas on Southwest for $79

 

1607 miles...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:06 | 5562509 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Lower fuel costs drop right to the bottom line right? Just like bag fees.

Merry Christmas Peasants! :):

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:50 | 5562453 freedogger
freedogger's picture

Popcorn still affordable!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 09:54 | 5562472 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

Due to cheaper gas, I have an extra $20 In my pocket every Week for booze.

Long Jack Daniels!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:00 | 5562489 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Uh-Oh looks likes it's time to pump a few more trillion into the system. That will get prices up...Right?

This pushing on a string is a bitch!

Go fed,go! Round up all your limp dicks and get to humping.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:01 | 5562493 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture

The Federal Reserve's Inflation Gauge: Falling to 2008 Levels  

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-federal-reserves-inflation-gauge-falling-to-2008-levels/
Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:03 | 5562502 JRobby
JRobby's picture

DEFLATION

NO DEMAND

NO JOBS

UNEMPLOYMENT OVER 20%

GOVERNMENT LIES

LIES

LIES

LIES

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:18 | 5562536 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

I guess you should do the only thing that you are good at.  Everyone should fill out their taxes with the same in mind.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:04 | 5562507 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Yeah, yeah, yeah...fuel prices drop, and....?

 

Those cruises all have the so called fuel price waiver clauses in them. Will they work in reverse now that the fuel costs have dropped substantially? Hell no.  Finance and commerce are a one way street. For example, if gold prices go up, there is a stop limit, (but not if they go down. $400 dollar spread my ass.)  If stocks rocket up, no speed brakes. If they go down, then trading is halted . What a bunch of bull shit. Burn, baby burn!

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:11 | 5562522 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Yeah, some ammo at Walmart has dropped 10-20% in the last couple months.

 

The Turkish 7.62x51 M80-spec ammo that WalMart recently reduced to $9.97/20 is a steal. 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:12 | 5562525 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

did they have any .22lr ?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:19 | 5562539 jughead
jughead's picture

only if you bring knee-pads and mouthwash when you ask the stock boy

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:11 | 5562523 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

Eventually they had to come down on the price if a half filled cereal box. 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:39 | 5562611 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

i'm sure airlines do a fair amount of forward purchases on fuels, especially considering tickets are priced and pruchased many weeks ahead of actual fight.  i'm sure those costs will decline in future months. 

I just don't believe the theory that all the food increases is a sign of inflations.  it's a sign of continued population growth...supply and demand.  Secondly, food quality and price continues to increase.  isles of $8/gallon organic milk etc.  This is why those aguement of "1bil more people to enter the middle class" never going to happen.  we dont have enough resources, the current distribution of wealth is what it will always be.  anytime any increase of consumers into "middle class' will be offset by price increases due to limited supply...one step forward, one back.  I still think there is some benefit to higher food increases...hopefully it will reduce food waste in this country.  But it will be brutal to the poor. 

We won't be seeing any inflation, as wage's will not increase.  ZH has shown many times real wages continue to decline...no inflation.  But prices for food and energy will increase as populations grow.  Although i don't think we'll see any actually inflation, what i really means is i think we'll move for neutral, or deflation (whatever we are in today), and skip right over inflation to Hyperinflation when currencies breakdown. 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:03 | 5562727 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Ixnay.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:02 | 5562728 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

If you mean by this,  "the current distribution of wealth is what it will always be".....that the middles classes will continue get poorer and poorer going forward and the wealth concentration will be ever more and more become more consolidated, then right.

Wealth itself will emphatically not become more 'socialized',  but less.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 12:08 | 5563045 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

I mean more that total wealth of $x, will always be $x, because we have finally maximize commodities and are reaching max population (dimishing returns on additional population growth).  And that essentially fixed global total wealth will also fix (although to a lesser degree) the population in each class.  80% of global population lives on less than $10/day.  That is always going to be the case because of a lack of resources.  The world could NEVER support even 10% of this poor population in the middle class.  any advancement to $11 or $12/day menas more consuming of fixed resources...income went up 20% but so did expenses.  still poverty.  So I guess i'm theorizing that global classes will stay about the same.  the botton 80% will always be dirt poor, and mostly due to the fact that we have too many people on this planet. 

I also don't really believe we'll see the doomsday wealth consolidation of 1000 people holding all assets...for the same reason.  If we push more people from middle to poor, then you should see a deflation in prices.  Basically that very limited population making billions needs, consumers and markets to make the money.  economics fixes everything.  as noted several times on this site, the wealth devide in the US has reached the 1929 peaks.  It is only going beyond that now because of global central banks.  they are blowing the bubble bigger, but it still will pop and reset. 

at least that is my best guess as of right now.  so add that to the pile of opinions on this faux market.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 12:46 | 5563293 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

You forget there are other 'worlds' out there, and b 4 long, maybe even b 4 you have children or many generations out, the tiny segment, the fractional minority of human beans with a high risk factor threshhold will be populating another planet, and relieving pressures that are to them intolerable here on the overcrowded blue ball we inhabit.  

And there are still many empty spaces in the current world that our dreamers and those with nothing will want to occupy.

Don't quite give up on our ability or the ability of a few to change the current trajectory of their (and perhaps our) destiny.

The disenfranchised with little to lose, like our ancestors who left England for America, and other migrants seeking a new beginning, will pave the way for the rest who also become more and more fed up with Earth.

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:52 | 5562655 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

There are plenty of empty, rusting shipping containers lying around your community to use as emergency shelters...cardboard boxes are soooo old school...

and if you have some cash, you can buy one and turn it into:

http://justsomething.co/shipping-containers/

 

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:56 | 5562663 Archetype
Archetype's picture

Manipulated inflation statistics is the best thing that happened central bankers since the printing press. You have probably all read this a thousend times but one moore can't hurt:

 

If the American [and world wide] people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their  currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of  all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. – Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 10:58 | 5562702 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

I get it.  Food and energy are not vital, essential, or necessary to live.

 

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:03 | 5562733 viator
viator's picture

"airfares rose 1.36% in November (after also rising 2.39% in October) - so much for the benefits to the consumer.

Yet again, as ZeroHedge knows, or should know considering it's name, expenses such as airline fuel costs are hedged. It will take some time for cost changes to work their way through the system.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:17 | 5562802 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Where's all the inflation I've been promised since 2008?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:38 | 5562904 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

CPI - communist produced inuendo

 

bad government stats = you know it's a lot fucking worse!!1

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 11:53 | 5562971 NewAmericaNow
NewAmericaNow's picture
When the Global Sh#t Hits The Fan, You'd Better Have a Plan

http://newamerica-now.blogspot.com/2014/02/beyond-collapse.html

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 12:43 | 5563280 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Biflationary depression is what we are in. Food prices, health insurance, property taxes and Gubmint employee salaries/benefits still soaring.

Private sector, Middle Class, undergoing more decimation as Big Oil fires a bundle of workers Christmas time.

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