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A Pessimist's Guide To The World In 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2015.

 

 

 

Source: Bloomberg News

 

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Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:04 | 5565886 HedgeAccordingly
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Syrian Army shrinking? could be a positive .... they are using old plumbers trucks from USA>

http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2014/12/the-syrian-army-is-shrinking-and-bas...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:15 | 5565917 Truther
Truther's picture

Putin will not let it fall that easy.... It's his wild card in the ME and Iran could set it right off just in the nick of time.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:26 | 5565965 cossack55
cossack55's picture

They forgot Ferguson, Mo.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:31 | 5565979 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I love the last part when Greece starts invading like the old days...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:54 | 5566051 knukles
knukles's picture

Somebody has to stop the Persian terrorists at Thermapolae .....
.... Or Vlad starts demanding either Rubles or Gold (effectively tying the Ruble to gold) for gas, oil, etc., as opposed to "selling gold" as all the wonks are pontificating.

Now wouldn't that just be a bitch?

 
Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:34 | 5566242 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I've thought about that one starting about February when its nice and cold.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 08:34 | 5567609 strangewalk
strangewalk's picture

Who saw the bubonic plague coming? Or the Great Leap Forward, or the Great Depression, or WW I and II...or 9/11? In fact, very few have ever foreseen anything of significance that rocked the earth and changed everything. However, we live in the most exiting times in all of human history, because we can clearly see horses coming. Four of them. 

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 04:18 | 5567316 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Ancient Greece was primarily interested in conquering the Arab peninsula and even the Indian subcontinent, especially so under Alexander the Great. It paid little attention to mainland Europe. The Roman Empire was a different story.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:39 | 5566017 Martial
Martial's picture

Yawn.....where's the EMP/Financial-Apocalypse/WW3/ebola/worlds-population-reduced-to-500 mill?

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 01:05 | 5566639 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

How about this sequence... It could all fit within one year:

America tries to engineer a coup in Russia, fails

Russia and China dump all Treasuries and announce they are backing their currencies with gold  

COMEX and London default  

Dollar plunges

Interest rates surge

Chain reaction derivatives meltdown

$300 trillion bailout

EBT and pensions won't buy shit

Rationing and price controls

Obama says it's all whitey's fault, announces program where people can narc on hoarders in exchange for a small paper kickback

Riots everywhere, racial death squads on both sides

Tanks in the streets, cops do nothing against looters, but start taking hoarders and gun owners to FEMA camps

1.5% of Americans fight back.  This is enough to completely paralyze the system

Cops and bureaucrats realize it's not worth risking their lives fighting for the people who stole their retirements

Militias start becoming de facto local governments

Texas secedes; 35 other states quickly follow

Israel realizes that since it is losing control of its big dumb golem and there is not much left to plunder, it is time to throw the golem under the bus.  They launch an EMP attack, framing Russia.

Dominionist cultists in the U.S. Air Force take the bait, nuke Russia

Our arsenal isn't the size and quality it once was, and Russia has many quiet subs.  Most of their arsenal survives the first strike.  They unload on America

Hell can't process all the new refugees fast enough.  Their earthbound corpses become ravenous brain-eating radioactive zombies.  The soul pipeline gets even more hopelessly clogged.  Soul futures crash.  Cthulhu buys them all with Cthulhu Credits, a new crypto currency.  Then he runs a 51% mining attack just with his own mind, seizes control of the currency and of course keeps the yummy souls too.  Om nom nom nom

 

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 08:27 | 5567598 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

You had me right up to the end. Cthultu doesn't need to buy souls, they all belong to her.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 17:07 | 5569962 draego
draego's picture

Write the book man, I'll buy it.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:50 | 5566058 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It won't be Ferguson, it will be somewhere else -- but it certainly would not have been possible without Ferguson going first

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:37 | 5566250 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

There are several unstable cities, all we need is a trigger.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:32 | 5565967 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Pessimistic?, no..., I'm sorry I must be a contrarian because I am very optimistic of our financial system crashing...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:37 | 5566006 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

all the pictures look optimistic anyway.  Party like it is 2015.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:07 | 5565892 The Shape
The Shape's picture

I bet it's "fingers crossed" from the guy driving water trucks in ND.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:07 | 5565901 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Actually it's fingers crossed on the Saudi one for me. I'll happily ride a push bike to see that place go up in smoke.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:08 | 5565898 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

.gov shuts down Tyler, now that's depressing.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:32 | 5565981 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Oh gosh, I forgoet what the story was about and thought it BEST CASE senerio!!!!

I feel optimistic.  I will bet all of you that those x-ray glasses in cereal make a big come back.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:09 | 5565902 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Central banks run out of zeros.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:32 | 5565991 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

they will run out of skin before they run out of zeros

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:08 | 5565903 Just Take It All
Just Take It All's picture

worst case? really? serious lack of imagination.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:10 | 5565907 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

An meanwhile in Australia....people keep buying homes because they never go down........

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:17 | 5565926 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

A short summary of what's at stake in the global financial and geopolitical arena:

http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/12/after-russia-all-eyes-and-ear...

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:21 | 5565948 Rage Against Yo...
Rage Against Your Face's picture

On a separate note anyone seen the film "The Riot Club". It nails exactly what the 1% think of the rest of us.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:27 | 5565971 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

let me guess....disposable diapers? 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:33 | 5565987 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

I like the song in the official trailer: Foals-Inhaler

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:18 | 5565932 Statetheist
Statetheist's picture

'A Pessimist's Guide To The World In 2015'

So basically, Zerohedge every single day?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:22 | 5565953 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Seems like a whimpy version of WarGames.

They got an App for that.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:56 | 5566330 Keyser
Keyser's picture

A better title would have been "A Realist's Guide to the World in 2015"..... 

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:21 | 5565935 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Seems Bloomberg wants to influence the Military and Foreign policy Think Tanks ...by running its own article on "War Games"... They wouldn't be the first by a long shot trying to shape US Foreign Policy.

Results:

- We need more Troops, Experts, Contractors, Weapons, and Military Equipment
- USA needs a new Found Source of Wealth to Fight the Next Wars
- Many War Theaters are Heating up, Risks are Up, Failing Countries are Increasing, Financial Risks, Credit Risks, Currency Risks, Petrol Dollar Risk, Economic Risks, Trade Risks... they are all up
- US Enemies are getting more sophisticated, more technology, and more weapons... as well as more Allies and Trade Partners

Likely Outcomes:

- Higher Federal Debt, Budget Expansion
- More Investment in DoD & DoD Related Contracts

Major Interest Groups "Players":

- Israel
- NATO
- CFR, Trilateral Commission, Global Elites, Ivy School Graduates, Wall Street, European Royalty
- US & EU Think Tanks, Foundations, PACs

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 22:05 | 5566357 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Seems Bloomberg wants to influence the Military and Foreign policy Think Tanks ...by running its own article on "War Games"... They wouldn't be the first by a long shot trying to shape US Foreign Policy.

Especially hilarious because it appears that they're trying influence US foreign policy to be more of the same. It's like trying to shape a billiard ball into a sphere.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 03:28 | 5567269 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Well I'm not sure. The .gov seems to know what outcomes it wants (biases), so the trick is you get a study or poll to support the outcomes you have focused on.

Mission, Objectives, Goals, Strategies... Or Political Influence just takes over the project.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:20 | 5565941 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Pretty shitty scenario runners they got there.

There must not have been enough room to add the one where Russia blows SA off the map?

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:20 | 5565943 Keyser
Keyser's picture

They left one out... The combined central banks attack on Russia will cause the BRICS to announce a gold-backed currency stanard for their trading block... 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:23 | 5566117 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

True. Reflects old Memes or Propaganda control over education & Media.

What about effects of war policies that result in mass migration, mass Refugees, Disease, Rape, Murder in camps, loss of Regional Economic Power leading to mass movements and pressure on outside countries infrastructure... like around Iraq, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Turkey, Iran.

- Currency Wars
- Embargo Wars
- Trade Wars
- Economic or Financial Wars
- Proxy Wars

- War on Drugs
- War on Terror
- War on people that use legal or illegal drugs
- War on Losers, Debtors, uneducated, unskilled, old, Fixed income, welfare recipients

Say, you don't think Open Borders with Mexico could change the Face, Politics, Economics of the USSA?? Balkanized USSA?? Seceding of US States from USSA?? Stratification of Socioeconomic Classes & Strife between the very rich & the poor??

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:49 | 5566307 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

yes the BRICS could so easily take down the west.....with a combined non dollar currency system

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:58 | 5566343 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The only question now is why Russia is not doing it... All they have to do is buy gold future, then demand delivery on expiration... No way in hell can the west deliver... Game over... 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:23 | 5565949 robnume
robnume's picture

The "Israel bombs Iran" scenario works for me. You know Netanyoohoo is dyin' to do just that one thing. He and the Knesset are in-fucking-sane.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:49 | 5566299 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

I think most of the world would like to see Israel turned into a glass parking lot-via nukes

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 22:04 | 5566356 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Israel is a pawn in the global game... We've seen the results of Rothschild interventions for the last 250 years and today is no different... Israel will cease to exist when it has served it's purpose, which is to kick off the end game in the ME... 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:18 | 5565957 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Well I see what Jew news Bloomturd wants you to worry about. Gave it away by the first 4 things about Israel, Like thats the center of the fuggin universe.  for me I had to read down about 7-8 things before I found anything that would be a terribly  bad thing. I actually would like to see about half of it happen and get it over with. Does this make me an Optimist?

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:25 | 5565963 Sub MOA
Sub MOA's picture

too many fires to keep track of and the fire extinguishers are all only half charged pessimism my ass thats realism..sooner or later somethings going up and nothings putting it out

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:26 | 5565968 goldhedge
goldhedge's picture

"The END is nigh"

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:43 | 5565994 Sub MOA
Sub MOA's picture

maybe a shrubery will save us neecht

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZvsGdJP3ng

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:34 | 5565995 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

Venezuelan gov't falls from insolvency.  Country taken over by a California based consortium of Eco-tourism corps and Whole Foods suppliers, who turn it into the first corp-run eco/green state.  Oil production shut down and they import windmills from Costa Rica in exchange for export of highly productive GMO kale crop.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:56 | 5566082 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

+ 1 for South American or Central American Country Take over.

- Monroe Doctrine
- The Roosevelt Corollary was an addition to the Monroe Doctrine articulated by President Theodore Roosevelt in his State of the Union address in 1904 after the Venezuela Crisis of 1902–03.
- President Woodrow Wilson had refused to recognize the Mexican Revolutionary governments in 1913 and Japan's 21 Demands upon China in 1915.[citation needed]
- Stimson Doctrine is a policy of the United States federal government, enunciated in a note of January 7, 1932, to Japan and China, of non-recognition of international territorial changes that were executed by force.

----

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roosevelt_Corollary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumsfeld_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weinberger_Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stimson_Doctrine

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:12 | 5566140 pudge94
pudge94's picture

With Dear Leader Andrew Cuomo.

Sun, 12/21/2014 - 21:49 | 5579779 Automatic Choke
Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:34 | 5565996 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture
The 13 people who made torture possible The Bush administration's Torture 13. They authorized it, they decided how to implement it, and they crafted the legal fig leaf to justify it.

 

1. Dick Cheney, vice president (2001-2009)

On the morning of 9/11, after the evacuation of the White House, Dick Cheney summoned his legal counsel, David Addington, to return to work. The two had worked together for years. In the 1980s, when Cheney was a congressman from Wyoming and Addington a staff attorney to another congressman, Cheney and Addington argued that in Iran-Contra, the president could ignore congressional guidance on foreign policy matters. Between 1989 and 1992, when Dick Cheney was the elder George Bush’s secretary of defense, Addington served as his counsel. He and Cheney saved the only known copies of abusive interrogation technique manuals taught at the School of the Americas. Now, on the morning of 9/11, they worked together to plot an expansive grab of executive power that they claimed was the correct response to the terrorist threat. Within two weeks, they had gotten a memo asserting almost unlimited power for the president as “the sole organ of the Nation in its foreign relations,” to respond to the terrorist attacks. As part of that expansive view of executive power, Cheney and Addington would argue that domestic and international laws prohibiting torture and abuse could not prevent the president from authorizing harsh treatment of detainees in the war against terror.

But Cheney and Addington also fought bureaucratically to construct this torture program. Cheney led the way by controlling who got access to President Bush — and making sure his own views preempted others‘. Each time the torture program got into trouble as it spread around the globe, Cheney intervened to ward off legal threats and limits, by badgering the CIA’s inspector general when he reported many problems with the interrogation program, and by lobbying Congress to legally protect those who had tortured.

Most shockingly, Cheney is reported to have ordered torture himself, even after interrogators believed detainees were cooperative. Since the 2002 OLC memo known as “Bybee Two” that authorizes torture premises its authorization for torture on the assertion that “the interrogation team is certain that” the detainee “has additional information he refuses to divulge,” Cheney appears to have ordered torture that was illegal even under the spurious guidelines of the memo.

2. David Addington, counsel to the vice president (2001-2005), chief of staff to the vice president (2005-2009)

David Addington championed the fight to argue that the president — in his role as commander in chief — could not be bound by any law, including those prohibiting torture. He did so in two ways. He advised the lawyers drawing up the legal opinions that justified torture. In particular, he ran a “War Council” with Jim Haynes, John Yoo, John Rizzo and Alberto Gonzales (see all four below) and other trusted lawyers, which crafted and executed many of the legal approaches to the war on terror together.

In addition, Addington and Cheney wielded bureaucratic carrots and sticks — notably by giving or withholding promotions for lawyers who supported these illegal policies. When Jack Goldsmith withdrew a number of OLC memos because of the legal problems in them, Addington was the sole administration lawyer who defended them. Addington’s close bureaucratic control over the legal analysis process shows he was unwilling to let the lawyers give the administration a “good faith” assessment of the laws prohibiting torture.

3. Alberto Gonzales, White House counsel (2001-2005), and attorney general (2005-2008)

As White House counsel, Alberto Gonzales was nominally in charge of representing the president’s views on legal issues, including national security issues. In that role, Gonzales wrote and reviewed a number of the legal opinions that attempted to immunize torture. Most important, in a Jan. 25, 2002, opinion reportedly written with David Addington, Gonzales paved the way for exempting al-Qaida detainees from the Geneva Conventions. His memo claimed the “new kind of war” represented by the war against al-Qaida “renders obsolete Geneva’s strict limitations on questioning of enemy prisoners.” In a signal that Gonzales and Addington adopted that position to immunize torture, Gonzales argued that one advantage of not applying the Geneva Convention to al-Qaida would “substantially reduce the threat of domestic criminal prosecution under the War Crimes Act.” The memo even specifically foresaw the possibility of independent counsels’ prosecuting acts against detainees.

4. James Mitchell, consultant

Even while Addington, Gonzales and the lawyers were beginning to build the legal framework for torture, a couple of military psychologists were laying out the techniques the military would use. James Mitchell, a retired military psychologist, had been a leading expert in the military’s SERE program. In December 2001, with his partner, Bruce Jessen, Mitchell reverse-engineered SERE techniques to be used to interrogate detainees. Then, in the spring of 2002, before OLC gave official legal approval to torture, Mitchell oversaw Abu Zubaydah’s interrogation. An FBI agent on the scene describes Mitchell overseeing the use of “borderline torture.” And after OLC approved waterboarding, Mitchell oversaw its use in ways that exceeded the guidelines in the OLC memo. Under Mitchell’s guidance, interrogators used the waterboard with “far greater frequency than initially indicated” — a total of 183 times in a month for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and 83 times in a month for Abu Zubaydah. 

5. George Tenet, director of Central Intelligence (1997-2004)

As director of the CIA during the early years of the war against al-Qaida, Tenet had ultimate management responsibility for the CIA’s program of capturing, detaining and interrogating suspected al-Qaida members and briefed top Cabinet members on those techniques. Published reports say Tenet approved every detail of the interrogation plans: “Any change in the plan — even if an extra day of a certain treatment was added — was signed off on by the Director.” It was under Tenet’s leadership that Mitchell and Jessen’s SERE techniques were applied to the administration’s first allegedly high-value al-Qaida prisoner, Abu Zubaydah. After approval of the harsh techniques, CIA headquarters ordered Abu Zubaydah to be waterboarded even though onsite interrogators believed Zubaydah was “compliant.” Since the Bybee Two memo authorizing torture required that interrogators believe the detainee had further information that could only be gained by using torture, this additional use of the waterboard was clearly illegal according to the memo.

6. Condoleezza Rice, national security advisor (2001-2005), secretary of state (2005-2008)

As national security advisor to President Bush, Rice coordinated much of the administration’s internal debate over interrogation policies. She approved (she now says she “conveyed the authorization”) for the first known officially sanctioned use of torture — the CIA’s interrogation of Abu Zubaydah — on July 17, 2002. This approval was given after the torture of Zubaydah had begun, and before receiving a legal OK from the OLC. The approval from the OLC was given orally in late July and in written form on Aug. 1, 2002. Rice’s approval or “convey[ance] of authorization” led directly to the intensified torture of Zubaydah.

7. John Yoo, deputy assistant attorney general, Office of Legal Counsel (2001-2003)

As deputy assistant attorney general of OLC focusing on national security for the first year and a half after 9/11, Yoo drafted many of the memos that would establish the torture regime, starting with the opinion claiming virtually unlimited power for the president in times of war. In the early months of 2002, he started working with Addington and others to draft two key memos authorizing torture: Bybee One (providing legal cover for torture) and Bybee Two (describing the techniques that could be used), both dated Aug. 1, 2002. He also helped draft a similar memo approving harsh techniques for the military completed on March 14, 2003, and even a memo eviscerating Fourth Amendment protections in the United States. The Bybee One and DOD memos argue that “necessity” or “self-defense” might be used as defenses against prosecution, even though the United Nations Convention Against Torture explicitly states that “no exceptional circumstances whatsoever, whether a state of war or a threat or war … may be invoked as a justification of torture.” Bybee Two, listing the techniques the CIA could use in interrogation, was premised on hotly debated assumptions. For example, the memo presumed that Abu Zubaydah was uncooperative, and had actionable intelligence that could only be gotten through harsh techniques. Yet Zubaydah had already cooperated with the FBI. The memo claimed Zubaydah was mentally and physically fit to be waterboarded, even though Zubaydah had had head and recent gunshot injuries. As Jack Goldsmith described Yoo’s opinions, they “could be interpreted as if they were designed to confer immunity for bad acts.” In all of his torture memos, Yoo ignored key precedents relating both specifically to waterboarding and to separation of powers.

8. Jay Bybee, assistant attorney general, Office of Legal Counsel (2001-2003)

As head of the OLC when the first torture memos were approved, Bybee signed the memos named after him that John Yoo drafted. At the time, the White House knew that Bybee wanted an appointment as a Circuit Court judge; after signing his name to memos supporting torture, he received such an appointment. Of particular concern is the timing of Bybee’s approval of the torture techniques. He first approved some techniques on July 24, 2002. The next day, Jim Haynes, the Defense Department’s general counsel, ordered the SERE unit of DOD to collect information including details on waterboarding. While the record is contradictory on whether Haynes or CIA General Counsel John Rizzo gave that information to OLC, on the day they did so, OLC approved waterboarding. One of the documents in that packet identified these actions as torture, and stated that torture often produced unreliable results.

9. William “Jim” Haynes, Defense Department general counsel (2001-2008)

As general counsel of the Defense Department, Jim Haynes oversaw the legal analysis of interrogation techniques to be used with military detainees. Very early on, he worked as a broker between SERE professionals and the CIA. His office first asked for information on “exploiting” detainees in December 2001, which is when James Mitchell is first known to have worked on interrogation plans. And later, in July 2002, when CIA was already using torture with Abu Zubaydah but needed scientific cover before OLC would approve waterboarding, Haynes ordered the SERE team to produce such information immediately.

Later Haynes played a key role in making sure some of the techniques were adopted, with little review, by the military. He was thus crucial to the migration of torture to Guantánamo and then Iraq. In September 2002, Haynes participated in a key visit to Guantánamo (along with Addington and other lawyers) that coincided with requests from DOD interrogators there for some of the same techniques used by the CIA.

Haynes ignored repeated warnings from within the armed services about the techniques, including statements that the techniques “may violate torture statute” and “cross the line of ‘humane’ treatment.” In October 2002, when the legal counsel for the military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff attempted to conduct a thorough legal review of the techniques, Haynes ordered her to stop, because “people were going to see” the objections that some in the military had raised. On Nov. 27, 2002, Haynes recommended that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld authorize many of the requested techniques, including stress positions, hooding, the removal of clothing, and the use of dogs — the same techniques that showed up later in the abuse at Abu Ghraib.

10. Donald Rumsfeld, secretary of defense (2001-2006)

As secretary of defense, Rumsfeld signed off on interrogation methods used in the military, notably for Abu Ghraib, Bagram Air Force Base and Guantánamo Bay. With this approval, the use of torture would move from the CIA to the military. A recent bipartisan Senate report concluded that “Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s authorization of interrogation techniques at Guantánamo Bay was a direct cause of detainee abuse there.” Rumsfeld personally approved techniques including the use of phobias (dogs), forced nudity and stress positions on Dec. 2, 2002, signing a one-page memo prepared for him by Haynes. These techniques were among those deemed torture in the Charles Graner case and the case of “20th hijacker” Mohammed al-Qahtani. Rumsfeld also personally authorized an interrogation plan for Moahmedou Ould Slahi on Aug. 13, 2003; the plan used many of the same techniques as had been used with al-Qahtani, including sensory deprivation and “sleep adjustment.” And through it all, Rumsfeld maintained a disdainful view on these techniques, at one point quipping on a memo approving harsh techniques, “I stand for eight to 10 hours a day. Why is standing limited to four hours?”

11. John Rizzo, CIA deputy general counsel (2002-2004), acting general counsel of the Central Intelligence Agency (2001-2002, 2004-present)

As deputy general counsel and then acting general counsel for the CIA, John Rizzo’s name appears on all of the known OLC opinions on torture for the CIA. For the Bybee Two memo, Rizzo provided a number of factually contested pieces of information to OLC — notably, that Abu Zubaydah was uncooperative and physically and mentally fit enough to withstand waterboarding and other enhanced techniques. In addition, Rizzo provided a description of waterboarding using one standard, while the OLC opinion described a more moderate standard. Significantly, the description of waterboarding submitted to OLC came from the Defense Department, even though NSC had excluded DOD from discussions on the memo. Along with the description of waterboarding and other techniques, Rizzo also provided a document that called enhanced methods “torture” and deemed them unreliable — yet even with this warning, Rizzo still advocated for the CIA to get permission to use those techniques.

12. Steven Bradbury, principal deputy assistant attorney general, OLC (2004), acting assistant attorney general, OLC (2005-2009)

In 2004, the CIA’s inspector general wrote a report concluding that the CIA’s interrogation program might violate the Convention Against Torture. It fell to Acting Assistant Attorney General Steven Bradbury to write three memos in May 2005 that would dismiss the concerns the IG Report raised — in effect, to affirm the OLC’s 2002 memos legitimizing torture. Bradbury’s memos noted the ways in which prior torture had exceeded the Bybee Two memo: the 183 uses of the waterboard for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in one month, the gallon and a half used in waterboarding, the 20 to 30 times a detainee is thrown agains the wall, the 11 days a detainee had been made to stay awake, the extra sessions of waterboarding ordered from CIA headquarters even after local interrogators deemed Abu Zubaydah to be fully compliant. Yet Bradbury does not consider it torture. He notes the CIA’s doctors’ cautions about the combination of using the waterboard with a physically fatigued detainee, yet in a separate memo approves the use of sleep deprivation and waterboading in tandem. He repeatedly concedes that the CIA’s interrogation techniques as actually implemented exceeded the SERE techniques, yet repeatedly points to the connection to SERE to argue the methods must be legal. And as with the Bybee One memo, Bradbury resorts to precisely the kind of appeal to exceptional circumstances — “used only as necessary to protect against grave threats” — to distinguish U.S. interrogation techniques from the torture it so closely resembles around the world.

13. George W. Bush, president (2001-2009)

While President Bush maintained some distance from the torture for years — Cheney describes him “basically” authorizing it — he served as the chief propagandist about its efficacy and necessity. Most notably, on Sept. 6, 2006, when Bush first confessed to the program, Bush repeated the claims made to support the Bybee Two memo: that Abu Zubaydah wouldn’t talk except by using torture. And in 2006, after the CIA’s own inspector general had raised problems with the program, after Steven Bradbury had admitted all the ways that the torture program exceeded guidelines, Bush still claimed it was legal.

 ”[They] were designed to be safe, to comply with our laws, our Constitution and our treaty obligations. The Department of Justice reviewed the authorized methods extensively, and determined them to be lawful.”

With this statement, the deceptions and bureaucratic games all came full circle. After all, it was Bush who, on Feb. 7, 2002, had declared the Geneva Conventions wouldn’t apply (a view the Supreme Court ultimately rejected).

Bush’s inaction in torture is as important as his actions. Bush failed to fulfill legal obligations to notify Congress of the torture program. A Senate Intelligence timeline on the torture program makes clear that Congress was not briefed on the techniques used in the torture program until after Abu Zubaydah had already been waterboarded. And in a 2003 letter, then House Intelligence ranking member Jane Harman shows that she had not yet seen evidence that Bush had signed off on this policy. This suggests President Bush did not provide the legally required notice to Congress, violating National Security Decisions Directive-286. What Bush did not say is as legally important as what he did say.

Yet, ultimately, Bush and whatever approval he gave the program is at the center of the administration’s embrace of torture. Condoleezza Rice recently said, “By definition, if it was authorized by the president, it did not violate our obligations in the Convention Against Torture.” While Rice has tried to reframe her statement, it uses the same logic used by John Yoo and David Addington to justify the program, the shocking claim that international and domestic laws cannot bind the president in times of war. Bush’s close allies still insist if he authorized it, it couldn’t be torture.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:39 | 5566019 Sub MOA
Sub MOA's picture

Open Season on Treason I say let the hunting begin

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 22:07 | 5566367 Keyser
Keyser's picture

How about Hunger Games for the elites... I know I would pay to watch a Kerry vs Cheney death match... 

 

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:43 | 5566034 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Bump for this.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:46 | 5566293 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

ID say justice demands that they all be shot-after torture-for war crimes

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 03:34 | 5567275 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

So, we can blame a lot of Lawyers for the Destruction of the American Idea, the US Constitution, and the Reputation of the USA... along with a lot of other sh*t.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:37 | 5566007 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I see wonderful opportunities, and new found relationships.

 With every door that closes, a new door opens{ }

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:38 | 5566016 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I think the Middle East FEAR is just that and always has been. Let those ragheads kill each other all they want. It's Israel that wants the US involved. Misery loves company.

Putin, I don't know. He's between a rock and a hard place. I would not think he would get sucked into (starting) a big war he can't win over Crimea. If he's going to do anything rash he better do it before his popularity falls too far.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:47 | 5566052 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

All of these pale in comparison to the two greatest dangers facing the world -- algoithm driven control of every market, and Wall Street's complete control of every aspect of the US Government.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 20:58 | 5566084 scatha
scatha's picture

First of all there are no pessimists only realists. Optimists are those uninformed so they replace knowledge with hope. Elites living in now, not in past or in future so they know what’s going on for a fact.

 

Second, invasion of Russia map misses the fact that Russia has 200 thousand airborne troops capable to drop anything from the sky, such as tanks, APC, big guns and all infrastructure anytime and anywhere within 30 minutes. So Russian soldiers can show up anywhere in no time. With 40% now of angry Russian population, Ukraine has no chance to defend itself.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:23 | 5566198 nuke ISIS now
nuke ISIS now's picture

The only thing the Russian population should be mad about is what Putin has done to damage the lives of that population

The failure to recognize this FACT is evidenced that you are brainwashed

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 22:49 | 5566520 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Well, well, rather funny indeed. Does not make it real though. Beliefs are not facts, even when labeled "FACT".

Ah, the marvellous US citizen state of mind.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 01:55 | 5567110 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Nin - do what you want, but watch it. You keep bumping yourself up like that and you're gonna get hairy palms.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:24 | 5566199 nuke ISIS now
nuke ISIS now's picture

The only thing the Russian population should be mad about is what Putin has done to damage the lives of that population

The failure to recognize this FACT is evidence that you are brainwashed

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:44 | 5566279 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

all the drugs you used in your college years have finally caught up with your brain.  What total idiot nonsense

 

 

IT needs a washin' all right

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:49 | 5566309 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Who want to control a bucket of shit,without the bucket ?

Nobody really wants the rump of Ukraine, its only value is as a threat to Russia.

Zilch otherwise.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:20 | 5566182 X_Weatherman
X_Weatherman's picture

At http://www.williambowles.info/guests/usa_regime.html Jacques Pauwels in 2004 explained concicely in 4 paragraph how US oligarchs and their extractive corporations was acting and continues to act upon the world.  The future will be a continuance of, with a variation upon the themes Jacques then explained.  It has been so since WWII and previously and will continue until the USA, as Jacques said,  “puts people before profits”.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 21:33 | 5566236 Lone_Star
Lone_Star's picture

Who'd they ask for the arctic scenario the Goracle & Green Peace? If there's a battle up there it'll be on the ice not because of the melting ice, because the arctic has been freezing sooner and in greater amounts.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 22:46 | 5566501 Jerusalem Cats
Jerusalem Cats's picture

There is already a Third Palestinian Intifada now and the police and mayor of Jerusalem are doing nothing but puting up barriers at the light rail train stations. The barriers to limit access to the Arab neighborhoods were removed this week. Until the government of Israel takes a really hard look at what they are doing and tells the UN, the EU and the US to go to Hell and then take action that any other country would do, thing will continue as they are.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 23:41 | 5566508 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

My humble predictions for 2015:

The Zionists will keep pressing on Russia to relent on Greater Israel's Lebensraum move in Syria. It will either end with open war with Russia, or Russia caving on Syria in exchange for the restoration of previous oil prices and ruble rates, and annexation of eastern Ukraine.

After the first half of the year, once things are settled with Russia, the fleeing connected and "Chosen" ones will have settled nicely in their new base of operations, Europe. With a new war dog, and victims, acquired, they will be able to cut the cord on the dollar. The DC US will barely limp out of the year, and will be a festering cesspool of poverty, misery, anger and resentment by the American sheeple, and therefore ready to go "full neo-con."

The Obama regime will, once the price of oil is allowed to return to prewar levels, the now mostly Zionist bankster and oligarch owned and controlled oil patch will resume production, but will mostly hire cheaper Latino workers. This will heighten their profits, but also heighten the ethnic tension toward Latinos, and divert attention from the real thieves, the banksters, the oligarchs, and their governmnet puppets.

Embedded in this civil and economic strife will be more neo-con preparatory scandals within the CIA-Obama regime. Most of all will be a morality scandal focusing on Obama's homosexuality.

The year will also come to be dominated by talk, propaganda, of a need for an Article 5 Constitutional convention. The states have already voted to have one, but that fact has been suspiciously kept on the down-low. All that is needed is to sell the American sheeple on the idea.

The "issues" for having a Constitutional convention will most likely center on the use of "Executive Orders," and balanced budget amendment, etc. What will really happen, is that the neo-cons will push through changes that gut the Constitution, clear the way for dictatorship, and eliminate the Constitutional right to "bear arms." Americans will still be permitted to "bear arms," but only certain types of handguns. Combat type handguns, and those capable of "high capacity" magazines, and "assault rifles" will be banned.

The ReadyReserve will become more formally constituted and public. Manned by poor, out of work,and angry rural whites, the ReadyReserve will be the ones that will be used to come around for our now banned firearms in 2016/17.

By the end of the year, the first FEMA camp will have opened, and most Americans will have heard the acronym/word SDR for the first time.

2015 is going to be interesting. Are you ready?

"Got God*, gold, guns, grub, ground, and guillotines?"

An American, not US subject.

 

* Not an endorsement or inducement.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 23:57 | 5566734 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Good coverage of the many groups.

Article 5 Convention should have the Lobbyist in Total Overdrive... Like 2 Presidential Elections for each year of tribulations. I could see a possible Multi-Year Event to string out the Corporate Spending.

Odds favor the Lobbyist in an Article 5 in them writing the Legislation. Still the people in States that really want it to happen should be educated at this point.

- Fascist Playbook in your vision

- Ukrainian Lower & Middle Class
- Lower & Middle Class Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, French, ETC
- US War Fodder, US Lower & Middle Class, US Investors, US Pensioners, US Children
- Third World Economies

Just trying to think of the Losers in all of this.

- Seems like a perfect time for China to acquire more foreign contracts, mining rights, and even invade some new territory in 2015
- Also, Russia will need at least 1 Million man Army & Navy Occupiers to hold territory and test NATO Limits by extending further (Mandatory Service)

Manpower
Military age 18–27
Conscription 12 months[citation needed]
Active personnel 845,000 (2014)[1] (ranked 5th)
Reserve personnel 2,035,000 (2013)[2]

Expenditures
Budget $90.7 billion (2013),[3][4] 3rd
Percent of GDP 4.4% (2013)

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 05:16 | 5567023 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Just trying to think of the Losers in all of this."

I'm only concerned with the American country and people. Not because I don't care about the peoples of the rest of the world, but helping, say the Germans, or any others, is outside my sphere of knowledge. They'll have to help themselves.

Besides, if we Americans can get the DC US war-dog under control, we will have done much to help the rest of the world.

An American, not US subject.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 23:01 | 5566563 db51
db51's picture

Obama dies from injuries having rough sex with Reggie Love and Joe Biden assumes the reigns.

Wed, 12/17/2014 - 23:21 | 5566628 TomGa
TomGa's picture
"The First Few Minutes of World War III Will Look Like in 2012-2015"

 

http://youtu.be/aWveazPiuxg

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 01:56 | 5567105 joego1
joego1's picture

Tyler forgot the most obvious ones;

Putin wakes up with a nasty hangover and decides he's had enough of all of this bullshit and pushes the big red button.

Lil Kim gets pissed and launches a dirty bomb into Tokyo

Islamic extremists load up a bunch of smuggled radioactive waste/explosives and send it on it's merry way on a freighter to almost anywhere USA/Europe.

When you think about it the list is almost endless.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 06:30 | 5567424 The Darwin Mode
The Darwin Mode's picture

Military might is a reflection of economic superiority. Russia and China don't have to compete with our armed forces in order to defeat them; Putin and Jinping need only to wait for our Minsky moment, then phase in control over our abandoned frontier posts as the hegemonic tide recedes. China will have a lot to say about how that goes down, but remember how swiftly we booted the Spanish Empire out of two theaters simultaneously? We barely chipped a nail in 1898, because Spain was an economic shell of its former self. "A splendid little war," indeed--and achieved without a large military. Russia and China are surely aware of such historical precedents.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 09:34 | 5567795 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The big question is who will have their "Minsky moment " first! The  dollar and stock market have gained  strength as cross border money flows have become a major factor.

While these cross border flows have been good for the market I caution it does not fundamentally change the economy. Most analysts agree that money from countries with weakening currencies is flowing out of the troubled areas and into America. The article below delves into why this should not be considered a good thing as much as a signal of global instability.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-american-equities-are-rising.html

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 07:51 | 5567533 localizer
localizer's picture

Bloomturd strikes again - check the Uzbekistan location on the map.....

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 09:25 | 5567745 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

What a tangled mess they have created! The American and world economy has entered uncharted waters and weird crosscurrents are clouding our economic future. Throw in some social unrest and geopolitical hotspots and it becomes a question of continue to sail along or sink like a stone. 

Last quarter America's GDP came in at a strong 3.5% but the fact that a 10% jump in federal spending, mostly on Pentagon hardware bolstered growth and was very much behind the numbers. This was the biggest increase in federal spending since 2009 when the Obama administration put in place a huge economic stimulus package.

Mix in an upbeat November number concerning job creation, falling oil prices and ever higher stock market prices and new record highs and many people have the impression we are on a roll. The truth is this market is over extended and distorted and a crash may occur at any time. The article below delves into some of the many crosscurrents at work that could bring the economy to an abrupt halt.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/12/crosscurrents-cloud-future-economic.html

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