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The Stuff Is Already Hitting the Fan in the Currency Markets
Stocks are rallying hard for three main reasons:
1) Janet Yellen’s press conference managed to confuse everyone into thinking that the Fed might prop stocks up longer.
2) The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates to negative in an effort to depreciate the Franc.
3) It’s options expiration week… and Wall Street likes to push the markets higher to insure as many puts as possible expire worthless.
Let’s take a look…
Stocks rarely if ever go straight in one direction. The markets have been setting up a megaphone pattern since July. We staged a false breakout to the upside in late November. That has now reversed and we’ve broken critical support:
We are now rallying to test the upper trendline line to see if this has become resistance. I expect it will. So stocks might go up to 2050 on the S&P 500 (initial target the green circle), but then REAL move down should come climaxing in a break to the red circle in the lower 1800s.
The one item that could throw a wrench into all of this is the US Dollar. The Dollar continues to strengthen which is a VERY dangerous development for the financial markets.
Globally there are at least $9 TRILLION US Dollar shorts in the form of carry trades. When a carry trade unwinds, the damage is often catastrophic.
The first stage has already hit. Check out the absolute bloodbath for the US Dollar/ Brazilian Real pair (when the Dollar strengthens against the Real, the chart moves up).
We’re talking about a 20% collapse of the Real against the Dollar in the span of LESS THAN SIX MONTHS.
Here’s the US Dollar/ Australian Dollar pair (again, when the Dollar strengthens against the Aussie Dollar, the chart moves up).
That’s a 16% move in less than SIX months.
You only get these kinds of moves when the STUFF IS HITTING THE FAN. By way of example, imagine the impact these moves would have on ANY project or investment that was borrowing US Dollars in Australia or Brazil.
The financial media is euphoric because stocks are rallying. But stocks are ALWAYS the last to “GET IT.” The currency markets (which trade $5 trillion per day) realize that something MASSIVE is underway. And it’s only just beginning.
We full expect that 2015 will be the year when the second round of the Great Crisis really hits. And when it does, entire countries will go bust.
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
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http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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The currency markets are unsettled because of the growing recognition that the Federal Reserve Note is no longer the international reserve currency, and that the credit rating agencies are involved in the transition to aurum. http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/84359/new-way-hold-gold from the Global Debt Facility, denominated in each of the world's currencies, including the US Dollar. What I can tell you is that the royals who signed the Bilateral Minesfield Breakthrough Successor Agreement, in which they agreed that the World Bank and IMF would authenticate the withdrawals of the world's gold and other assets, (see paragraph 6
https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/BILATERAL.pdf )are demanding more than the fee of 1/4 of 1% under the Monetary Agreements to be signed by each nation:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/Monetary+Agreement1.pdf
I have informed the County Executives of America, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the National Taxpayers Union, the Inspector General of the US Marines, and the Chair of the 25 Ministers of Finance on the Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors of the Bank and the Fund on the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries, of my previous email of December 9th on this matter to the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank that the "putative claims of the nobility" for the world's gold and other assets were extinguished through the 50 year sequestration period. I have informed the Board of the World Bank that there are multiple signature authorities, that each withdrawal from the Global Debt Facility needed authentication, and that I was accountable to the Board of Governors and the Board of Executive Directors.The strengthening dollar may be sending a signal that the whole system is unstable. Other currencies are under assault because both economies are weak and countries are buried in debt they can never repay at real market interest rates. The change in currency values may be dramatic and using history as a guide markets often show no mercy when this shift occurs.
For months the major world currencies had traded in a narrow range as if held in limbo by some great force. This has allowed people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money chasing the "ever elusive growth" that always appears to be just around the corner. Recently the major currencies have made multi-year highs or lows depending on the match-up.
John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. The article below looks at why this trend may accelerate and cause the stock market to drop like a stone.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/fed-concerned-that-stong-dollar.h...
I don't understand the point of setting negative interest rates to destroy your currency. In theory, doesn't printing money destroy your currency? If so, print fuckloads of money and use it to buy gold. That way you get the depreciated currency AND you get the gold.
You are forgetting about permanent backwardation of gold, which will cause another dark ages:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/fekete.docxhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy-2GaT6RMo&feature=youtu.be&a
The SNB sold their gold, printed fuckloads of Francs and bought ass-tonnes of Euros with them. What could possibly go wrong?
Dude- your post are becoming more and more lunatic?
Wtf?! So now you are using technical analysis??
Markets are rigged - you said it- so how does technical analysis help here?
Dude- your post are becoming more and more lunatic?
Wtf?! So now you are using technical analysis??
Markets are rigged - you said it- so how does technical analysis help here?
Thanks for nothing Phoenix, but I'd think seriously about a name change to, "Icarus", to suit your guesses masquerading as.....what...Megaphones??
Jesus h Keerist!!
Exporters don't seem to be under any unusual pressure either. It's very curious. American exports like death and inflation are as good as ever.
So if the dollar is strengthening and other currencies are weakening against the dollar then the USA is the only one with lower gas prices?
Other countries may use different mechanisms to regulate or tax. Lots of variables here I would suppose. I haven't seen any write ups on what's happening overseas with gas prices. Any takers on putting those charts together?
No, because oil has nearly halved and the dollar has not doubled.
More or less, the dollar gets more expensive and everything else bought and sold in dollars does to. It sucks to be an emerging market country.
Same analysis coming from a different direction...
Dow
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/the-fedral-reserve-adds-patience-to-i...
Dollar
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-f...
Gold
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-week-end...
I think its gonna take a little longer for this shit to unravel.
It's damned difficult to manipulate everythng at once. They made the stock market happy but they've either pissed off or confused everybody else....
I would tend to agree as the powers that be always seem to have a little more ammo than we think. But my real question is the vertical spike in the SHIBOR in China that's been occuring in all short-term borrowing rates. Not sure if this is a typical year-end seasonal issue/trend or if some real pressure is building in the credit markets in China. If so, another BRIC currency is going to come under serious pressure, although the official exchange rate is pegged to the USD, and is going to add even more fuel to the FX fire. If the USD continues its push and moves above 90, it will then be set to run to 100 and create serious pain for all EMs and their currencies. This is where the CBs really are going to lose control of this mess as one point is well taken in the above article, stocks which are considered a leading indicator, are going to be the last to get the message that some is serious wrong in the global markets.
$9 TRILLION dollars?? Ha ha... there's not that much money in the whole world!
This might just be Phonenix Capital's chance to capture their "twice a day" correct call. They've been wrong for years, but this kind of currency volatility has to be very painful for an awful lot of people...