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"Q4 GDP Below 2%, December Payrolls Under 200,000" Markit Warns As Service PMI Crashes To 10-Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Another bumper month of non-farm payroll growth looks unlikely in December, with private sector payroll growth unlikely to breach the 200,000 mark," warns Markit after The US Services PMI plunged to 53.6, missing expectations of 56.3 by the most on record. This is the 6th straight month of declines. Job creation slumped to 8-month lows. The Composite (Services & Manufacturing) PMI plunged to its lowest level since October 2013. Still exuberant? Still hopeful? Here's Markit's summary, "A sharp slowing in service sector activity alongside a similar easing in the manufacturing sector takes the overall rate of economic expansion down to the weakest since October 2013. The extent of the slowdown suggests that economic growth in the fourth quarter could come in below 2%"

 

All the mid-year exuberance, demolished in its cyclically adjusted reality...

 

As Employment plunges...

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said:

“A sharp slowing in service sector activity alongside a similar easing in the manufacturing sector takes the overall rate of economic expansion down to the weakest since October 2013. The extent of the slowdown suggests that economic growth in the fourth quarter could come in below 2% which, with the exception of the downturn caused by adverse weather in the first quarter, would be the worst performance for two years.

 

“The slowdown is linked to weaker growth of new business as customers becoming increasingly worried about the economic outlook both at home and abroad, with the prospect of higher interest rates cooling demand alongside side rising global geopolitical concerns. Across both manufacturing and services, new business grew in December at a pace well below the rates of expansion seen earlier in the year.

 

“Job creation has also slowed sharply alongside the cooling of demand, and payroll numbers across both sectors showed the smallest rise for eight months. Another bumper month of non-farm payroll growth looks unlikely in December, with private sector payroll growth unlikely to breach the 200,000 mark.”

Buy everything.

 

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Thu, 12/18/2014 - 10:58 | 5568144 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

YA THINK!?

Duhhh... No who could have seen this coming??

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:05 | 5568180 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

WOw that philly fed # was Phucked!!

Http://www.hedgeaccordingly.com

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:11 | 5568203 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Funny, every number we get now has a "most in decades/ever" sticker on it.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:41 | 5568343 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

... and yet every major news station is bragging "the jobs numbers are great" this morning.

 

It's paradoxical !

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 13:08 | 5568762 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Reality keeps dropping on them and harshing their buzz. The reports that will be coming out for Q4 should be interesting in a Chinese curse sort of way.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 12:41 | 5568625 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

someone should notify markit and tell them the GDP will come in at whatever it takes to impress the public.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:07 | 5568186 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Q4 GDP < 1%

Revised

Revised again

Revised from the revised again etc.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 10:59 | 5568149 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Wait, so you're saying they've been lying this whole time, and that the cardboard box I live in, isn't real? 

I will say: manipulation aside, if Dec payrolls DON'T hit the 200k+ mark - that's bad.  I mean, I'm sure they'll make it up to somehow hit the 201k mark or something....but December is always a big month for employment because a) retail seasonal hiring and b) corporations and employees alike generally find new help starting around and near the 1st of the new year. 

 

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:10 | 5568209 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Wait until the calendar turns. Lots of chatter re several (more) women's retail clothing co's filing for bankruptcy in January. And obviously Radio Shack. Quiet malls are quieter.

I think after this Holiday Season, when the numbers come in, it will be a retail bloodbath.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:15 | 5568231 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Agree. I've been waiting for the combination of high RE prices and the internet to destroy the brick and mortars once and for all. It's happening.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:56 | 5568437 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

When I read this I said to myself, "This should be good for DJIA +250 today"

It's up +235 today.  

What a joke.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 12:45 | 5568640 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

the day things collapse the media wil be interviewing Obama and Biden who will each be taking credit for the great economy and creating jobs.

 

we as a country are still at about the same number of employed as in 2008, except the population of workers is up 11 million (total population is up 16-17 million). and of course more part time and lower quality jobs.

we need to get some cavemen in the media cause even a caveman can see this.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 13:10 | 5568767 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Its not lying, its creative reality....

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 10:59 | 5568151 agstacks
agstacks's picture

If only the government spent more, the GDP would be higher!

 

/s

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:08 | 5568183 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Nancy Pelosi (former Speaker of the House/Democrat leader) made roughly that statement.  Paraphrasing: The more people we have on welfare the better it is for the economy <plastic eyes start blinking...>.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 10:59 | 5568158 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
Greece Might Be Hit With Cyprus Style Bail-Ins. Euro Crisis Getting Worse. Us Mortgage Applications Declined, A Sign That Real Estate Is Collapsing.  http://investmentwatchblog.com/greece-might-be-hit-with-cyprus-style-bail-ins-euro-crisis-getting-worse-us-mortgage-applications-declined-a-sign-that-real-estate-is-collapsing/
Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:09 | 5568195 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Hedge Funds & Private equity NEED MOAR RE. So mortgages remain tight.

Potterville 2015

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 10:59 | 5568161 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Watch how even Gallup manipulates consumer spending survey data and gets caught because they are too damn stupid to realize that you can't provide the information to the public because some people can actually do the math:

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/gallup-daily-us-consumer-spending.aspx...

 

note how the 14 day average spending intention of $130 is a mathematical impossibility based on their own data and chart.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:12 | 5568218 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Pretty soon they will need to pay off Comcast and AT&T to keep the sheeple's TV's on.

Message needs to be broadcast 24/7 uninterrupted to maintain sheeple trance like state.

"You can pay a $185/mo cable bill, you will pay etc. etc."

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:02 | 5568171 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

BULLISH!!!

 

<sigh...>

Black is white.  Up is down. Dear Leader Obama is a better president than Jimmy Carter.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:03 | 5568175 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

so its like -5 really

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:04 | 5568179 madcows
madcows's picture

no way it's under 200k.  That doesn't jive with the Recovery Meme.

Can they manipulate the already manipulated numbers to make them more manipulated?  Really, if they've already fudged the formula to make it look better, can they further fudge the numbers?  Or, do they have to go back and rejigger the formula?  And, I think when they rejiggering the formula that they need to announce the new formula.  So, can they do it without telling everyone they're lying?

FU BLS.  You lie like a racist wookie.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:06 | 5568182 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The only "growth" is in stock buybacks and M&A.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:08 | 5568188 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Oil to $55 and they cal it a "cooling of demand" Too fucking funny! The banksters are riding the event horizon at which point everything goes black, while smiling and saying everything is fine. Politicans are chained to the money the bankers produce with 125% of the GDP in derivatives. Shit I like Obola more than Boehner, at least he's a dyed in the wool socialist agitator and doesn't make any bones about wanting to completely "transform" america. Boehner is a conniving, lying litle shit RINO who is selling his and our souls for God only knows what.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:10 | 5568210 matt1021_98
matt1021_98's picture

Markit shmarkit

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:12 | 5568214 stant
stant's picture

With gas prices down ,Krugman should have switched to a higher priced cat food and litter sooner

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:13 | 5568217 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'm doing everything I can to contribute to the weak GDP.  I boycott most of the major corporations, spend as little into the eCONomy, contribute nothing in taxes, yet enjoy my life moreso than working like I did before.

FUCK'EM until the theft, graft, and corruption (Fed Reserve and Government) dies!

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:13 | 5568223 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

and down goes gold because... rates won't rise... just like yesterday when it went down because... rates will rise...

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:16 | 5568237 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

Who cares, it's Xmas.

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 11:27 | 5568280 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

call the adjuster

Thu, 12/18/2014 - 12:40 | 5568620 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

You can draw a straight line on the arcs from Oct12th till about now. 

Straight jackin that shit.

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