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The Burning Questions For 2015
By Louis-Vincent Gave, Gavekal Dragonomics
With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.
1. A Chinese Marshall Plan?
When we have conversations with clients about China – which typically we do between two and four times a day – the talk invariably revolves around how much Chinese growth is slowing (a good bit, and quite quickly); how undercapitalized Chinese banks are (a good bit, but fat net interest margins and preferred share issues are solving the problem over time); how much overcapacity there is in real estate (a good bit, but – like youth – this is a problem that time will fix); how much overcapacity there is in steel, shipping, university graduates and corrupt officials; how disruptive China’s adoption of assembly line robots will be etc.
All of these questions are urgent, and the problems that prompted them undeniably real, which means that China’s policymakers certainly have their plates full. But this is where things get interesting: in all our conversations with Western investors, their conclusion seems to be that Beijing will have little choice but to print money aggressively, devalue the renminbi, fiscally stimulate the economy, and basically follow the path trail-blazed (with such success?) by Western policymakers since 2008. However, we would argue that this conclusion represents a failure both to think outside the Western box and to read Beijing’s signal flags.
In numerous reports (and in Chapters 11 to 14 of Too Different For Comfort) we have argued that the internationalization of the renminbi has been one of the most significant macro events of recent years. This internationalization is continuing apace: from next to nothing in 2008, almost a quarter of Chinese trade will settle in renminbi in 2014:
This is an important development which could have a very positive impact on a number of emerging markets. Indeed, a typical, non-oil exporting emerging market policymaker (whether in Turkey, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, Argentina or India) usually has to worry about two things that are completely out of his control:
1) A spike in the US dollar. Whenever the US currency shoots up, it presents a hurdle for growth in most emerging markets. The first reason is that most trade takes place in US dollars, so a stronger US dollar means companies having to set aside more money for working capital needs. The second is that most emerging market investors tend to think in two currencies: their own and the US dollar. Catch a cab in Bangkok, Cairo, Cape Town or Jakarta and ask for that day’s US dollar exchange rate and chances are that the driver will know it to within a decimal point. This sensitivity to exchange rates is important because it means that when the US dollar rises, local wealth tends to flow out of local currencies as investors sell domestic assets and into US dollar assets, typically treasuries (when the US dollar falls, the reverse is true).
2) A rapid rise in oil or food prices. Violent spikes in oil and food prices can be highly destabilizing for developing countries, where the median family spends so much more of their income on basic necessities than the typical Western family. Sudden spikes in the price of food or energy can quickly create social and political tensions. And that’s not all; for oil-importing countries, a spike in oil prices can lead to a rapid deterioration in trade balances. These tend to scare foreign investors away, so pushing the local currency lower and domestic interest rates higher, which in turn leads to weaker growth etc...
Looking at these two concerns, it is hard to escape the conclusion that, as things stand, China is helping to mitigate both:
- China’s policy of renminbi internationalization means that emerging markets are able gradually to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. As they do, spikes in the value of the US currency (such as we have seen in 2014) are becoming less painful.
- The slowdown in Chinese oil demand, as well as China’s ability to capitalize on Putin’s difficulties to transform itself from a price-taker to a price-setter, means that the impact of oil and commodities on trade balances is much more contained.
Beyond providing stability to emerging markets, the gradual acceptance of the renminbi as a secondary trading and reserve currency for emerging markets has further implications. The late French economist Jacques Rueff showed convincingly how, when global trade moved from a gold-based settlement system to a US dollar-based system, purchasing power was duplicated. As the authors of a recent Wall Street Journal article citing Reuff’s work explained: “If the Banque de France counts among its reserves dollar claims (and not just gold and French francs) – for example a Banque de France deposit in a New York bank – this increases the money supply in France but without reducing the money supply of the US. So both countries can use these dollar assets to grant credit.” Replace Banque de France with Bank Indonesia, and US dollar with renminbi and the same causes will lead to the same effects.
Consider British Columbia’s recently issued AAA-rated two year renminbi dim sum bond. Yielding 2.85%, this bond was actively subscribed to by foreign central banks, which ended up receiving more than 50% of the initial allocation (ten times as much as in the first British Columbia dim sum issue two years ago). After the issue British Columbia takes the proceeds and deposits them in a Chinese bank, thereby capturing a nice spread. In turn, the Chinese bank can multiply this money five times over (so goes money creation in China). Meanwhile, the Indonesian, Korean or Kazakh central banks that bought the bonds now have an asset on their balance sheet which they can use to back an expansion of trade with China...
Of course, for trade to flourish, countries need to be able to specialize in their respective comparative advantages, hence the importance of the kind of free trade deals discussed at the recent APEC meeting. But free trade deals are not enough; countries also need trade infrastructure (ports, airports, telecoms, trade finance banks etc...). This brings us to China’s ‘new silk road’ strategy and the recent announcement by Beijing of a US$40bn fund to help finance road and rail infrastructure in the various ‘stans’ on its western borders in a development that promises to cut the travel time from China to Europe from the current 30 days by sea to ten days or less overland.
Needless to say, such a dramatic reduction in transportation time could help prompt some heavy industry to relocate from Europe to Asia.
That’s not all. At July’s BRICS summit in Brazil, leaders of the five member nations signed a treaty launching the US$50bn New Development Bank, which Beijing hopes will be modeled on China Development Bank, and is likely to compete with the World Bank. This will be followed by the establishment of a China-dominated BRICS contingency fund (challenging the International Monetary Fund). Also on the cards is an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to rival the Asian Development Bank.
So what looks likely to take shape over the next few years is a network of railroads and motorways linking China’s main production centers to Bangkok, Singapore, Karachi, Almaty, Moscow, Yangon, Kolkata. We will see pipelines, dams, and power plants built in Siberia, Central Asia, Pakistan and Myanmar; as well as airports, hotels, business centers... and all of this financed with China’s excess savings, and leverage. Given that China today has excess production capacity in all of these sectors, one does not need a fistful of university diplomas to figure out whose companies will get the pick of the construction contracts.
But to finance all of this, and to transform herself into a capital exporter, China needs stable capital markets and a strong, convertible currency. This explains why, despite Hong Kong’s pro-democracy demonstrations, Beijing is pressing ahead with the internationalization of the renminbi using the former British colony as its proving ground (witness the Shanghai-HK stock connect scheme and the removal of renminbi restrictions on Hong Kong residents). And it is why renminbi bonds have delivered better risk-adjusted returns over the past five years than almost any other fixed income market.
Of course, China’s strategy of internationalizing the renminbi, and integrating its neighbors into its own economy might fall flat on its face. Some neighbors bitterly resent China’s increasing assertiveness. Nonetheless, the big story in China today is not ‘ghost cities’ (how long has that one been around?) or undercapitalized banks. The major story is China’s reluctance to continue funneling its excess savings into US treasuries yielding less than 2%, and its willingness to use that capital instead to integrate its neighbors’ economies with its own; using its own currency and its low funding costs as an ‘appeal product’ (and having its own companies pick up the contracts as a bonus). In essence, is this so different from what the US did in Europe in the 1940s and 1950s with the Marshall Plan?
2. Japan: Is Abenomics just a sideshow?
With Japan in the middle of a triple dip recession, and Japanese households suffering a significant contraction in real disposable income, it might seem that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has chosen an odd time to call a snap election. Three big factors explain his decision:
1) The Japanese opposition is in complete disarray. So Abe’s decision may primarily have been opportunistic.
2) We must remember that Abe is the most nationalist prime minister Japan has produced in a generation. The expansion of China’s economic presence across Central and South East Asia will have left him feeling at least as uncomfortable as anyone who witnessed his Apec handshake with Xi Jinping three weeks ago. It is not hard to imagine that Abe returned from Beijing convinced that he needs to step up Japan’s military development; a policy that requires him to command a greater parliamentary majority than he holds now.
3) The final factor explaining Abe’s decision to call an election may be that in Japan the government’s performance in opinion polls seems to mirror the performance of the local stock market (wouldn’t Barack Obama like to see such a correlation in the US?). With the Nikkei breaking out to new highs, Abe may feel that now is the best time to try and cement his party’s dominant position in the Diet.
As he gets ready to face the voters, how should Abe attempt to portray himself? In our view, he could do worse than present himself as Japan Inc’s biggest salesman. Since the start of his second mandate, Abe has visited 49 countries in 21 months, and taken hundreds of different Japanese CEOs along with him for the ride. The message these CEOs have been spreading is simple: Japan is a very different place from 20 years ago. Companies are doing different things, and investment patterns have changed. Many companies have morphed into completely different animals, and are delivering handsome returns as a result. The relative year to date outperformances of Toyo Tire (+117%), Minebea (+95%), Mabuchi (+57%), Renesas (+43%), Fuji Film (+33%), NGK Insulators (+33%) and Nachi-Fujikoshi (+19%) have been enormous. Or take Panasonic as an example: the old television maker has transformed itself into a car parts firm, piggy-backing on the growth of Tesla’s model S.
Yet even as these changes have occurred, most foreign investors have stopped visiting Japan, and most sell-side firms have stopped funding genuine and original research. For the alert investor this is good news. As the number of Japanese firms at the heart of the disruptions reshaping our global economy – robotics, electric and self-driving cars, alternative energy, healthcare, care for the elderly – continues to expand, and as the number of investors looking at these same firms continues to shrink, those investors willing to sift the gravel of corporate Japan should be able to find real gems.
Which brings us to the real question confronting investors today: the ‘Kuroda put’ has placed Japanese equities back on investor’s maps. But is this just a short term phenomenon? After all, no nation has ever prospered by devaluing its currency. If Japan is set to attract, and retain, foreign investor flows, it will have to come up with a more compelling story than ‘we print money faster than anyone else’.
In our recent research, we have argued that this is exactly what is happening. In fact, we believe so much in the opportunity that we have launched a dedicated Japan corporate research service (GK Plus Alpha) whose principals (Alicia Walker and Neil Newman) are burning shoe leather to identify the disruptive companies that will trigger Japan’s next wave of growth.
3. Should we worry about capital misallocation in the US?
The US has now ‘enjoyed’ a free cost of money for some six years. The logic behind the zero-interest rate policy was simple enough: after the trauma of 2008, the animal spirits of entrepreneurs needed to be prodded back to life. Unfortunately, the last few years have reminded everyone that the average entrepreneur or investor typically borrows for one of two reasons:
- Capital spending: Business is expanding, so our entrepreneur borrows to open a new plant, or hire more people, etc.
- Financial engineering: The entrepreneur or investor borrows in order to purchase an existing cash flow, or stream of income. In this case, our borrower calculates the present value of a given income stream, and if this present value is higher than the cost of the debt required to own it, then the transaction makes sense.
Unfortunately, the second type of borrowing does not lead to an increase in the stock of capital. It simply leads to a change in the ownership of capital at higher and higher prices, with the ownership of an asset often moving away from entrepreneurs and towards financial middlemen or institutions. So instead of an increase in an economy’s capital stock (as we would get with increased borrowing for capital spending), with financial engineering all we see is a net increase in the total amount of debt and a greater concentration of asset ownership. And the higher the debt levels and ownership concentration, the greater the system’s fragility and its inability to weather shocks.
We are not arguing that financial engineering has reached its natural limits in the US. Who knows where those limits stand in a zero interest rate world? However, we would highlight that the recent new highs in US equities have not been accompanied by new lows in corporate spreads. Instead, the spread between 5-year BBB bonds and 5-year US treasuries has widened by more than 30 basis points since this summer.
Behind these wider spreads lies a simple reality: corporate bonds issued by energy sector companies have lately been taken to the woodshed. In fact, the spread between the bonds of energy companies, and those of other US corporates are back at highs not seen since the recession of 2001-2002, when the oil price was at US$30 a barrel.
The market’s behavior raises the question whether the energy industry has been the black hole of capital misallocation in the era of quantitative easing. As our friend Josh Ayers of Paradarch Advisors (Josh publishes a weekly entitled The Right Tale, which is a fount of interesting ideas. He can be reached at josh@paradarchadvisors.com) put it in a recent note: “After surviving the resource nadir of the late 1980s and 1990s, oil and gas firms started pumping up capex as the new millennium began. However, it wasn’t until the purported end of the global financial crisis in 2009 that capital expenditure in the oil patch went into hyperdrive, at which point capex from the S&P 500’s oil and gas subcomponents jumped from roughly 7% of total US fixed investment to over 10% today.”
“It’s no secret that a decade’s worth of higher global oil prices justified much of the early ramp-up in capex, but a more thoughtful look at the underlying data suggests we’re now deep in the malinvestment phase of the oil and gas business cycle. The second chart (above) displays both the total annual capex and the return on that capex (net income/capex) for the ten largest holdings in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The most troublesome aspect of this chart is that, since 2010, returns have been declining as capex outlays are increasing. Furthermore, this divergence is occurring despite WTI crude prices averaging nearly $96 per barrel during that period,” Josh noted.
The energy sector may not be the only place where capital has been misallocated on a grand scale. The other industry with a fairly large target on its back is the financial sector. For a start, policymakers around the world have basically decided that, for all intents and purposes, whenever a ‘decision maker’ in the financial industry makes a decision, someone else should be looking over the decision maker’s shoulder to ensure that the decision is appropriate. Take HSBC’s latest results: HSBC added 1400 compliance staff in one quarter, and plans to add another 1000 over the next quarter. From this, we can draw one of two conclusions:
1) The financial firms that will win are the large firms, as they can afford the compliance costs.
2) The winners will be the firms that say: “Fine, let’s get rid of the decision maker. Then we won’t need to hire the compliance guy either”.
This brings us to a theme first explored by our friend Paul Jeffery, who back in September wrote: “In 1994 Bill Gates observed: ‘Banking is necessary, banks are not’. The primary function of a bank is to bring savers and users of capital together in order to facilitate an exchange. In return for their role as [trusted] intermediaries banks charge a generous net spread. To date, this hefty added cost has been accepted by the public due to the lack of a credible alternative, as well as the general oligopolistic structure of the banking industry. What Lending Club and other P2P lenders do is provide an online market-place that connects borrowers and lenders directly; think the eBay of loans and you have the right conceptual grasp. Moreover, the business model of online market-place lending breaks with a banking tradition, dating back to 14th century Florence, of operating on a “fractional reserve” basis. In the case of P2P intermediation, lending can be thought of as being “fully reserved” and entails no balance sheet risk on the part of the service facilitator. Instead, the intermediary receives a fee- based revenue stream rather than a spread-based income.”
There is another way we can look at it: finance today is an abnormal industry in two important ways:
1) The more the sector spends on information and communications technology, the bigger a proportion of the economic pie the industry captures. This is a complete anomaly. In all other industries (retail, energy, telecoms...), spending on ICT has delivered savings for the consumers. In finance, investment in ICT (think shaving seconds of trading times in order to front run customer orders legally) has not delivered savings for consumers, nor even bigger dividends for shareholders, but fatter bonuses and profits for bankers.
2) The second way finance is an abnormal industry (perhaps unsurprisingly given the first factor) lies in the banks’ inability to pass on anything of value to their customers, at least as far as customer’s perceptions are concerned. Indeed, in ‘brand surveys’ and ‘consumer satisfaction reports’, banks regularly bring up the rear. Who today loves their bank in a way that some people ‘love’ Walmart, Costco, IKEA, Amazon, Apple, Google, Uber, etc?
Most importantly, and as Paul highlights above, if the whole point of the internet is to:
a) measure more efficiently what each individual needs, and
b) eliminate unnecessary intermediaries,
then we should expect a lot of the financial industry’s safe and steady margins to come under heavy pressure. This has already started in the broking and in the money management industries (where mediocre money managers and other closet indexers are being replaced by ETFs). But why shouldn’t we start to see banks’ high return consumer loan, SME loan and credit card loan businesses replaced, at a faster and faster pace, by peer-to-peer lending? Why should consumers continue to pay high fees for bank transfers, or credit cards when increasingly such services are offered at much lower costs by firms such as TransferWise, services like Alipay and Apple Pay, or simply by new currencies such as Bitcoin? On this point, we should note that in the 17 days that followed the launch of Apple Pay on the iPhone 6, almost 1% of Wholefoods’ transactions were processed using the new payment system. The likes of Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon have grown into behemoths by upending the media, advertising retail and entertainment industries. Such a rapid take- up rate for Apple Pay is a powerful indicator which sector is likely to be next in line. How else can these tech giants keep growing and avoid the fate that befell Sony, Microsoft and Nokia? On their past record, the technology companies will find margins, and growth, in upending our countries’ financial infrastructure. As they do, a lot of capital (both human and monetary) deployed in the current infrastructure will find itself obsolete.
This possibility raises a number of questions – not least for Gavekal’s own investment process, which relies heavily on changes in the velocity of money and in the willingness and ability of commercial banks to multiply money, to judge whether it makes sense to increase portfolio risk. What happens to a world that moves ‘ex-bank’ and where most new loans are extended peer-to-peer? In such a world, the banking multiplier disappears along with fractional reserve banking (and consequently the need for regulators? Dare to dream...). As bankers stop lending their clients umbrellas when it is sunny, and taking them away when it rains, will our economic cycles become much tamer? As central banks everywhere print money aggressively, could the market be in the process of creating currencies no longer based on the borders of nation states, but instead on the cross-border networks of large corporations (Alipay, Apple Pay...), or even on voluntary communities (Bitcoin). Does this mean we are approaching the Austrian dream of a world with many, non government-supported, currencies?
4. Should we care about Europe?
In our September Quarterly Strategy Chartbook, we debated whether the eurozone was set for a revival (the point expounded by François) or a continued period stuck in the doldrums (Charles’s view), or whether we should even care (my point). At the crux of this divergence in views is the question whether euroland is broadly following the Japanese deflationary bust path. Pointing to this possibility are the facts that 11 out of 15 eurozone countries are now registering annual year-on-year declines in CPI, that policy responses have so far been late, unclear and haphazard (as they were in Japan), and that the solutions mooted (e.g. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker’s €315bn infrastructure spending plan) recall the solutions adopted in Japan (remember all those bridges to nowhere?). And that’s before going into the structural parallels: ageing populations; dysfunctional, undercapitalized and overcrowded banking systems; influential segments of the population eager to maintain the status quo etc...
With the same causes at work, should we expect the same consequences? Does the continued underperformance of eurozone stocks simply reflect that managing companies in a deflationary environment is a very challenging task? If euroland has really entered a Japanese-style deflationary bust likely to extend years into the future, the conclusion almost draws itself.
The main lesson investors have learned from the Japanese experience of 1990-2013 is that the only time to buy stocks in an economy undergoing a deflationary bust is:
a) when stocks are massively undervalued relative both to their peers and to their own history, and
b) when a significant policy change is on the way.
This was the situation in Japan in 1999 (the first round of QE under PM Keizo Obuchi), 2005 (PM Junichiro Koizumi’s bank recapitalization program) and of course in 2013-14 (Abenomics). Otherwise, in a deflationary environment with no or low growth, there is no real reason to pile into equities. One does much better in debt. So, if the Japan-Europe parallel runs true, it only makes sense to look at eurozone equities when they are both massively undervalued relative to their own histories and there are expectations of a big policy change. This was the case in the spring of 2012 when valuations were at extremes, and Mario Draghi replaced Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB president. In the absence of these two conditions, the marginal dollar looking for equity risk will head for sunnier climes.
With this in mind, there are two possible arguments for an exposure to eurozone equities:
1) The analogy of Japan is misleading as euroland will not experience a deflationary bust (or will soon emerge from deflation).
2) We are reaching the point when our two conditions – attractive valuations, combined with policy shock and awe – are about to be met. Thus we could be reaching the point when euroland equities start to deliver outsized returns.
Proponents of the first argument will want to overweight euroland equities now, as this scenario should lead to a rebound in both the euro and European equities (so anyone underweight in their portfolios would struggle). However, it has to be said that the odds against this first outcome appear to get longer with almost every data release!
Proponents of the second scenario, however, can afford to sit back and wait, because it is likely any outperformance in eurozone equities would be accompanied by euro currency weakness. Hence, as a percentage of a total benchmark, European equities would not surge, because the rise in equities would be offset by the falling euro.
Alternatively, investors who are skeptical about either of these two propositions can – like us – continue to use euroland as a source of, rather than as a destination for, capital. And they can afford safely to ignore events unfolding in euroland as they seek rewarding investment opportunities in the US or Asia. In short, over the coming years investors may adopt the same view towards the eurozone that they took towards Japan for the last decade: ‘Neither loved, nor hated... simply ignored’.
Conclusion:
Most investors go about their job trying to identify ‘winners’. But more often than not, investing is about avoiding losers. Like successful gamblers at the racing track, an investor’s starting point should be to eliminate the assets that do not stand a chance, and then spread the rest of one’s capital amongst the remainder.
For example, if in 1981 an investor had decided to forego investing in commodities and simply to diversify his holdings across other asset classes, his decision would have been enough to earn himself a decade at the beach. If our investor had then returned to the office in 1990, and again made just one decision – to own nothing in Japan – he could once again have gone back to sipping margaritas for the next ten years. In 2000, the decision had to be not to own overvalued technology stocks. By 2006, our investor needed to start selling his holdings in financials around the world. And by 2008, the money-saving decision would have been to forego investing in euroland.
Of course hindsight is twenty-twenty, and any investor who managed to avoid all these potholes would have done extremely well. Nevertheless, the big question confronting investors today is how to avoid the potholes of tomorrow. To succeed, we believe that investors need to answer the following questions:
- Will Japan engineer a revival through its lead in exciting new technologies (robotics, hi-tech help for the elderly, electric and driverless cars etc...), or will Abenomics prove to be the last hurrah of a society unable to adjust to the 21st century? Our research is following these questions closely through our new GK Plus Alpha venture.
- Will China slowly sink under the weight of the past decade’s malinvestment and the accompanying rise in debt (the consensus view) or will it successfully establish itself as Asia’s new hegemon? Our Beijing based research team is very much on top of these questions, especially Tom Miller, who by next Christmas should have a book out charting the geopolitical impact of China’s rise.
- Will Indian prime minister Narendra Modi succeed in plucking the low-hanging fruit so visible in India, building new infrastructure, deregulating services, cutting protectionism, etc? If so, will India start to pull its weight in the global economy and financial markets?
- How will the world deal with a US economy that may no longer run current account deficits, and may no longer be keen to finance large armies? Does such a combination not almost guarantee the success of China’s strategy?
- If the US dollar is entering a long term structural bull market, who are the winners and losers? The knee-jerk reaction has been to say ‘emerging markets will be the losers’ (simply because they were in the past. But the reality is that most emerging markets have large US dollar reserves and can withstand a strong US currency. Instead, will the big losers from the US dollar be the commodity producers?
- Have we reached ‘peak demand’ for oil? If so, does this mean that we have years ahead of us in which markets and investors will have to digest the past five years of capital misallocation into commodities?
- Talking of capital misallocation, does the continued trend of share buybacks render our financial system more fragile (through higher gearing) and so more likely to crack in the face of exogenous shocks? If it does, one key problem may be that although we may have made our banks safer through increased regulations (since banks are not allowed to take risks anymore), we may well have made our financial markets more volatile (since banks are no longer allowed to trade their balance sheets to benefit from spikes in volatility). This much appeared obvious from the behavior of US fixed income markets in the days following Bill Gross’s departure from PIMCO. In turn, if banks are not allowed to take risks at volatile times, then central banks will always be called upon to act, which guarantees more capital misallocation, share buybacks and further fragilization of the system (expect more debates along this theme between Charles, and Anatole).
- Will the financial sector be next to undergo disintermediation by the internet (after advertising and the media). If so, what will the macro- consequences be? (Hint: not good for the pound or London property.)
- Is euroland following the Japanese deflationary-bust roadmap?
The answers to these questions will drive performance for years to come. In the meantime, we continue to believe that a portfolio which avoids a) euroland, b) banks, and c) commodities, will do well – perhaps well enough to continue funding Mediterranean beach holidays – especially as these are likely to go on getting cheaper for anyone not earning euros!
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Why the entire Western Media including ZeroHedge backed out the Peshawar Attack ?
#PeshawarAttack Continuation of Colonial British Strategy for the Subjugation of the Subcontinent
http://greatgameindia.com/peshawar-attack-the-empire-strikes-again/
The recent attack in Peshawar following the blueprint of the ongoing disintegration of Pakistan is not just a matter of penetration of the military and the intelligence services by forces friendly to the Taliban, but is the direct result of Colonial British Strategy—with the help of U.S.-based co-conspirators—to partition the country into a potpourri of ethnic entities.
The break-up of Pakistan’s westernmost wing is evidently backed by the colonial forces, and their adjuncts; it would establish an unstable state that would depend wholly on Western powers for its survival. That would cut off both India and China, in particular, from land access to the Central Asian oil and gas fields, as well as from Iran. Over a period of time, it would also endanger Russia’s southern flank.
PeshawarAttack Continuation of Colonial British Strategy for the Subjugation of the Subcontinent
http://greatgameindia.com/peshawar-attack-the-empire-strikes-again/
Didn't you post this a few times already?
o.t....current fukishima earthquake
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/index.php?pageid=seism_index&rid=450248
and
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php
Gee, I hope none of that radioactive water they have stored in those well-built and maintained tanks manages to leak into the Pacific.
:)
And I don't want any junk washing up on my beach either.
All time highs during a recession. .....normal
Why the entire Western Media including ZeroHedge backed out the Peshawar Attack ?
There's a lot that the Western media and yes even ZH won't talk about! And oh by the way I concur with your analysis and inevitable outcome to this crisis for Pakistan and it's particular significance and implication to China especially on the subject of the port of Gwadar that doesn't get mentioned enough and the problems that neighborly relationship has had with events that don't get posted in the MSM!
I often wonder what might have happened after the 9/11 attacks that Musharraf knew who was responsible had told "Dick" Armitage to go fuck himself with military support right after they happened even with the threats the Bush Administration made to his Country? But where was the support to investigate among the EU, China, India and Russia? Wonder what would have happened if China and India had said "no" to the jobs in exchange for the Ground Zero rubble? Or for that matter Russia giving access routes and logistics to the U.S. military for money for Afghanistan when they knew the reason for their being in that Country was a bold faced lie?...
All the silent victims and deals being made behind closed doors then as now!
Maybe those 145 children they lost earlier this week might still be alive along with no drones patrolling their territory the last 12 years?
+100
Pick a disaster, any disaster and your relying on the media attention span which is very short. There are a lot of rolling disasters in the world that get reported for a week then disappear.
This is true KD
Some disasters are natural. And some are man-made.
When it's the man-made variety that kills lots of human beings indiscriminately based on poor choices by bigger nations on smaller ones I think in this age of TCP/IP there is no reason for any of them to be overlooked...
And unlike 20 years ago increasingly they don't have to "disappear" if for no other motivation then posterity!
I think this is as important as the ongoing war in Syria and the ongoing saber-rattling in Ukraine.
I think this is as important as the ongoing war in Syria and the ongoing saber-rattling in Ukraine.
Hang in there. Your devotion will be rewarded soon!
The Burning Questions on Friday, Dec 19th
- What part of 'MARKETS ARE RIGGED' does this chump not understand?
- Is this article supposed to be Friday Humor?
- Will the US Dollar eventually find its best use as toilet paper, a firestarter, or a coke pipe?
- Should I have another Scotch, or another bong hit?
I knew it was a load of shit when I read this in the main page summary;
Like successful gamblers at the racing track, an investor’s starting point should be to eliminate the assets that do not stand a chance, and then spread the rest of one’s capital amongst the remainder.'
There is no such thing as a professional gambler, there are however professional risk takers. All the people in the market are optimists who think it will go on forever and when it all falls apart they will not understand why because every talking head promised them a sure thing.
Both - hit the pipe, and slug a long pull of that Macallan 25 y.o.
What the flying fuck...it's Christmas for fucks sake.
Thx Beetle!
At least I can say that one problem got solved last night
I'm impressed by these detailed technical analyses combined with hearsay and opinion. But when do they become a promo or twerk for a Service or one's Next Move?
Over the years we've seen tons of impressive and persuasive forecasts turn out unfulfilled or plain wrong. If they align with our existing views and hopes, we consider them to be 'good'. If not, them we don't. Fan-tastic!
This has happened to me also, and I've therefore learned to no longer jump up and shout "Aleluia, PTL!" like at a religious revival, or "Yes I can, yes I will!" like at a sales rally, or buy an expensive ticket to the next train to Investor Nirvana.
I'm now reading most articles for their Infotainment value, because that's what they often turn out to be.
I would recommend the Mogumbo Guru. At least they are funny.
I hope you didn't read the whole thing, that's what short cuts are for.
It's called YUAN! I like that misallocation spoof/
First of all, you should throw 2/3rds of this article away.
It's already happened. The last third pertaining to energy and "peer lending" is moot. LMFAO!
Good luck finding lending in energy and technology sectors.
http://www.thelayoff.com/qualcomm
https://gigaom.com/2013/11/20/qualcomm-quakes-sources-say-layoffs-at-mob...
Man ! I'm just getting started.
Enough click/bait
Oh not you too, I wasn't even considering you two as suckers, might have to change my mind.
I really don't understand how building a railway to Singapore gets Chinese goods overland to Europe in 10 days.
On the other hand, he lays out an interesting, albeit utopian, view of what the Chinese are up to. If this is indeed their ultimate gambit to get around a US naval blockade, it makes some sense and at least offers a semi-rational excuse for the inland ghost cities. But a railway to Berlin would have to go through one buttload of shithole countries with no infrastructure and often unstable politics. Just one of them straying off the reservation screws the whole plan up completely. Also, a single double-track line across the tundra is not going to replace all the shipping capacity needed and shipping still offers the advantage of free movement of goods outside the purview of any customs agents other than the ones on each end of the transaction.
We'll put some muhfuckin jets on dem trains. Rocket power, bitchez!
I know cause we got guys working on drones that can do that in a heartbeat.
Turn your burning iPhone ears on loud. /hahahahahahhaa
Petrodollar Cycle & Realpolitik
Mister nigger US President, enjoy your 17 day holiday while we remove your power under constitutional laws/ Patriot Act .
War with Russia is the real deal. I think Putin now suddenly sees this has been of poker and not chess at all.
"The failure to move is a move in poker.". It means you're out of the game either because it was too rich or you lost all your money.
Currently he has a vicious war in his West that is bogging him down. A cold winter might set in here....and the troops might not be getting paid.
Shove your poker in your mouth a gag on it.
As your drown away, tell us about the real deal, poker, failure, money, vicious war and troops to look over you when your cock is coughted up from the mouth.
Is tricky dicky your boss? How's that pain in the neck feelin about now. You know sometimes in the morning, you can ache all over and not know why.
For a guy who rips gays all the time and throws out homphobic slurs, you have had a real anal & oral fixation in a lot of your posts of late.
Because you throw this shit in our face on a daily basis. How does it feel to be thrown back in your face? That's how fet up we get everyday about hearing your queer twisted fucked-up homo thoughts.
I talk about men's gentalia and asses? I think you are projecting big time. Find me a post where I mention either. There are 3 alone from you in this thread.
Stay in the closet. Stop shoving homosexuality down our throats. Society is not going to accept your ass pounding behavior. I will propel the annoying, please accept our fucked up DNA every time I have to hear it. You don't see us preaching heterosexual life on a daily basis? NO! Get back into your closet and STFU. When you stop pushing homosexuality, we will stop throwing it back into your face.
This is no different than the racism card Obama administration tried using. You will fail again.
You know, I've often wondered about this -- given that Russians play chess, but Americans play Poker.
We can also add another analogy: the levels of Intrigue, Duplicity, Deception and shifting alliances that were practiced on Aristocratic or Royal Courts.
The Brits have ample history and experience with this. Modern Russians do not. The political versions in government come close, but are not the same thing. Unless you include their parallels in the intelligence agencies.
Hope some old ZH leaders see the future. That link is deadly but plural. We have to stop the horrific cunt licking and kissing ass frauds. Take these people out by a gun. Very bad people. IMHO. Our world will mend into a society that works together. Mark my words.
Petrodollar Cycle & Realpolitik
Old chinese proverb, you a live a by a gun, you a die a by a gun.
From this guy?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/86/David_Carradine_as_Caine_i...
As the post adviser and a Professor Emeritus of ZH I have proposed a series of changes to posts that will minimize reading time, put all the key points into 1 easy to read chart or graph or image and maximize value of the information. Think of it as the faster, better, cheaper ZH ode to JW
Here is an example based on the tome posted above:
Headline: Who Will Fall Into the Pit of Hell First & Take the Rest of the Demon Possessed Pigs with Them?
1. China's Communist bred corruption, ponzi financial scheme, and all around societal disaster waiting to happen
2. Japan's hysterically laughing lunatics of the Abenomics financial fiasco and deadly Fukushima denial
3. USA's out of control control freaks terrorizing the globe financially and militarily
4. EU's Tower of Babel
http://biblelight.net/tower-painting-parliament.jpg
5. Conclusion - It's a crap shoot but any one will bring down the others. Like the trumpets sounding the walls of Jericho will come crumbling down. Zero Hedge your bets. Buy physical, preservable and preferably non-traceable and hard to confiscate assets. Because you know the criminals will lie, cheat and steal their way through your traceable accounts to save their sorry asses. Exhibit A below.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013...
Pecunia, si uti scis, ancilla est; Si nescis, domina
Opening One (1) Acme Friday Night Timesaver
IF YOU KNOW HOW TO USE MONEY, MONEY IS YOUR SLAVE; IF YOU DON'T, MONEY IS YOUR MASTER
Me, since I don't have any, I must be a freebooter.
..Pecunia, si uti scis, ancilla est; Si nescis, domina...
(If you know how to use money you make it your slave, if not it is your master)
Yes as you said : but then we have to define what pecunia is.
If its petunia or tulips, its not pecunia, its a bubble money all electronically generated by Jack's derivative fed, FED/QE disseminated via the banksta web, beanstalk..
The truth is often hidden in the details of the Spider's web !
MONEY I can't remember where, but in some book I read, the Chinese practice an ancient accounting system which includes not only income, distributions, and loans, but also any and all favors that another family did for the family doing the accounting, and of course favors that that family did for the other. All these count, and therefore, I think, count as money. Money is what you can exchange for what you need. It is stored energy. (By the way, this might also help explain the impenetrability of Chinese accounting. For example, a loan, or part of it, might be repaid with, say, a marriage, or the granting of a position.)
Purtroppo dobbiamo prendere atto che il vecchio proverbio latino "pecunia non olet” è ancora estremamente apprezzato dai nostri governi.
- Unfortunately, we have to realise that the old Latin proverb 'pecunia non olet' ('money does not smell') is still extremely popular with our governments.
especially to the Greeks who took it all to Swiss banks.
How do you say "money has no smell" in old greek?
????? ??? ???? ???????
Gave up on finding Greek in English Lettering.
Here is some Chinese, numbers 6, 7, & 18 are interesting. I figure since few every leave Congress and Private Executives and Older Managers hold on to their positions & Knowledge ... that the USA will soon be like old China where there are few young skilled in Machinery, Factory Design, Machine Design, Chemical Engineering, Energy Science, etc.
http://www.chinesetolearn.com/20-famous-and-wise-chinese-proverbs-%E8%B0...
Famous Chinese Sayings:
???????, ??????? yí cùn gu?ng y?n yí cùn j?n, cùn j?n nán m?i cùn gu?ng y?n - Time is money, and it is difficult for one to use money to get time.
????, ????(zhòng gu? dé gu?, zhòng dòu dé dòu) - As a man sows, so shall he reap. This proverb warns that one receives just returns for one's actions; good for good, and evil for evil.
????????(méi y?u gu? ju bù chéng f?ng yuán) - Nothing can be accomplished without norms or standards.
???? (b?ng bù yàn zhà) - Nothing is too deceitful in war. (Think DC or TBTF)
????,????(shí nián shù mù, b?i nián shù rén) - It takes ten years to grow trees but a hundred years to rear people. (Think USA has a long way to go)
??????(shì shí shèng yú xióng biàn) - actions speak louder than words. (look at Congress)
Famous Chinese Sayings(If these are From China, then our English Expressions come from Trade with China or Vice Versa)
http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/learning-chinese/chinese-sayi...
Thank you, Professor.
Off topic: is there any way to find and search the ole ZH articles, before ZH went to this new, nicer format?
The writer seems quite optimistic that the world won't explode in a dollar collapse holocaust of epic proportions...otherwise we see eye to eye...
In 2015, yeah I would take that bet but i certainly wouldn't have large amounts of cash at any one bank or especially any account. Always hedge a bit too by keeping some accounts abroad (NZ and Canada myself).
btw it is Rueff not Reuff...he is dead 35 years and still right.
...and the significance of the Renmimbi's increased use in trade is even greater than the writer sees...if it emerges that several countries are willing to free float their currencies, the manipulation of the dollar will even be more evident and further and more rapidly drive the world to a new settlement system.
I see the concept of a reserve currency going away. I don't think China wants that. It killed American exports even if it gave the US 40 years of crazy spending power. In the end Rueff and Triffin saw things even more clearly then than most do now. Look for gold to become the reserve as currencies accept their value based on balance of trade calculations without manipulation. It is the only way weaker economies can be stimulated to get stronger.
Is not "Gave" French for "kudlow"?
China cares about its EM neighbors economically ? LMAO
Does this nonsense have a point? We have self-appointed editors chiming in.
My burning question is, when will someone who does statistics, post ZH volume to the Jewish Sabbath.
And fast cause those cats are running out of time.
Hard to say what the future will bring, but the first goal in achieving financial security is to take steps that insure capital preservation. One thing has become crystal clear over the last few decades and that is the economic landscape is constantly changing this means we really are no safer today than in the past. One day you can be a hero and the next day a goat.
One of my largest reasons for concern is I feel that many of the numbers being presented to us do not make rational sense, the "numbers don't work." The article below delves into how all of us will be vulnerable if the current financial system breaks down and has to be rebooted or restarted under new or drastically different set of rules.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/capital-preservation-is-job-one.html
TL;DR....going back to buy moar stawks.
Its free and yet all that people do on here now is just rip every supply sell piece on here ad infinitum with no trade ideas. Me I am looking for Russian trades and have a few things I am monitoring but man it is a crapshoot where oil ends up and how it impacts other big producers now too.
Yes.
I thought there were other boards that focused on specific investments, and that ZH reported on market manipulation (among other things).
I think oil, being such an important commodity, might be near the top of the manipulation list. Isn't war manipulation? Aren't the pipeline wars in Syria, the Ukraine, and Pakistan oil wars? How can one predict the outcome of war? Who would have predicted that 13 untrained, disorganized, distrustful colonies would win a war against the mighty British Empire?
This week, I did have a trading idea, which I thought was a "supply" idea, and it was to buy Florida phosphate companies, because they could ship phosphates to Cuba. But I see that, so far in this little rally, MOS (Mosaic Industries, Florida phosphate company) is up less than SPY. Maybe the opening of Cuba will help some USA-based cruise ship and other travel companies.
I think value analysis is something for real experts, and I am not one, so I stick with technical analysis. The trend is my friend.
MOS. See? No responses to a trading idea post. Therefore, presumably, no interest.
A different look at the markets...
Oil
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/whats-really-happening-with-oilthe-la...
Dollar
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-f...
Abenomics
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/abenomics-from-faith-to-failurethe-la...
Treasuries
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/10-yr-u-s-treasury-index-yieldelliott...
Of course, being able to predict a top or bottom is always intriguing. I always like to see how a system did at past tops and bottoms. For example, I wonder what EWI's chart for Japan looked like when it was approaching the end (top) of wave 5.
Have you found an Elliott Wave program you like?
Here is a story ZH regulars may find interesting:
Meredith Whitney’s Hedge Fund Said to Be in Turmoil
By Max Abelson
Dec 19, 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-19/meredith-whitney-s-hedge-fund-s...
excerpts:
"The hedge fund Meredith Whitney started last year after she became one of Wall Street’s best-known analysts is in turmoil. Her biggest investor demanded his money back and two executives left in the past month, according to a person with knowledge of her firm."
.
.
.
"Whitney had aimed for returns of 12 percent to 17 percent, according to the fund presentation. Instead, her American Revival Fund LP lost 4.7 percent through the first half of the year, an investor letter this July showed."
Perhaps she should turn her husband loose on the cowardly bailers. Would pay to watch that action.
Good. I heard she is quite a nasty individual to deal with and she has made a ton of money for essentially 1-2 bold contrarian calls. Her 15 minutes were up a while ago.
Here is something you study in college 101 business accounting and leave school to never follow or use again if your an LLC the last 2 decades...
GAAP
He seems to make something very simple into something very complicated. Maybe he gets paid by the word? Let’s distill it down, “Will the Fed print and print and print?”
YES = Stocks will soar, earnings, sales, balance sheets do not matter, China problems, wars, over-production, macro issues have no meaning anymore. Any bad news will be countered with moar printing. QE4,5,6…forever. Only fools would sell into weakness, knowing the Fed will immediately respond.
NO = Stocks collapse, millions lose their investments, social unrest spreads as unemployment soars.
I think we all know which path they take. The ‘New Normal’
We will succeed without fear. Someone is going to get poor once the Petrodollar is fringed. You will become our Hebrew slaves.
Kreayshawn - Left Ey3
Using the same fear tactics against us will implode on you. Poetic justice. No wonder Hitler threw you in the oven. Didn’t you promote the above music link? Or was it a GAZA music promoter?
+100
This needs to be published on the front News, TV etc....
A delight reading before all the sheeple Holidays
+100
This needs to be published on the front News, TV etc....
A delight reading before all the sheeple Holidays