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Demographics - Why The Great Recession Started (And Won't End Anytime Soon)
Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Biderman's Money blog,
WWII is still reshaping our economic reality. The massive global loss of life in WWII and its birth dearth during the war created a demographic hole (unusually high death / unusually low births over a 5 to 10 year period). The subsequent baby booms in the US and globally in Japan, Europe, and so many more locations which were affected by the war created a “pig in the python” moment. This unusually large wave of population growth from ’45-’55 was “pent up demand” from the war. Those of family rearing age who waited, those who remarried, and those who fretted…they rushed to make up for lost time over the decade after the wars conclusion. But the subsequent generations were in no such rush and in fact began an ongoing process of slowing the creation of families and children.
But society and its leaders assumed this baby boom anomaly to be the new reality. They built an entire economic system on the one decade anomaly. But that wasn’t enough. They had to layer the anomaly with the unsustainable and the previously immoral levels of usury (renamed and rebranded as leverage, credit) and economic policies only effective as the passing of the pig was imminent. The baby boom group or entity spanning 10 years will in 2015 turn a collective 60-70yrs old. The “pig is passing” from the American and global workforce into retirement and now the wreckage and folly of such basic misnomers has come home to roost…and will get far worse. Central bank and government actions to create the problems and subsequent responses should be seen for what they are…entirely self-serving and ineffective.
A global multi-variate tipping point was reached in 2007 – too many older boomers leaving the system and too few to replace them. This all put too many requests on that system…too many boomers continuing to work for low, part time wages rather than making way for the following generations. Too many unsustainable layers with inadequate support collapsing in on the system below. In 2007 the total population of 25-54 year olds and total employed within the 25-54 year olds peaked. The total US population of 25-54 year olds has fallen 1 million since, 25-54 year old employees have fallen nearly 4 million, while the 55+ cadre has ramped by almost 8 million.
The impact is likely even stronger in Japan, Europe, and other locals upon which the war was waged. The loss of life higher, the birth dearth higher, the subsequent baby boom larger…and the current adjustments even more difficult.
Nearly 70 years later and WWII’s primary participant nations are now aging rapidly and have taken on great debt to serve the aging populations. And these only show the formal on the books debt to GDP but nations like the US have up to 5x’s the formally recognized debt…which from a growth perspective is akin to trying to perform an open water swim with an anchor around your neck…of course the young, unindebted nations like Saudi Arabia or Indonesia with 5% of its population 65 and above and a modest debt to GDP are far likelier to grow rapidly.
CHART-A-POLOOZA
A note on the charts…please know the following charts are not simple – they are attempting to show multiple variables and their relationships and impacts on one another. However, if you commit to take the time to read the entire chart I believe you can be rewarded with the true causes of our economic maladies.
Global Demographics and Debt
The chart below shows the formal debt to GDP of the top 20 some economies compared with the % of their populations 65 years and older. These nations to the left of the graph are substituting debt for falling demand…but their populations are rapidly aging and this makes them incapable of the growth rates that would be necessary to pay down debt or even service debt at “market” rates. Instead, governments and central banks are keeping the monetary pedal to the metal to maintain “normalcy” and avoid the ultimately unavoidable adjustments.
US Demographic focus
The chart below shows the size of the US 25-54 year old population and total jobs in this group over time…it’s clear to see this group (which is responsible for driving the US economy) peaked in total population in ’07 and has fallen since…and jobs within this group also peaked but have fallen about 4x’s more than the groups population decline. The peak and fall of this group in the US and likewise globally, particularly in advanced economies, soon sent the markets into a tailspin. And the government has made up for the falling demand by taking on debt…lots of debt. This crisis (aka, the Baby Boom bust) was entirely predicted and foretold. But for some reason the subsequent birth dearth and it’s economic impacts in the US and globally are not being discussed and rather the Fed speaks of insufficient demand being overcome by simply offering more and cheaper debt??? As you consider the US charts, remember these same issues impacting the US are not just domestic but very global and feeding on one another in global lockstep.
The chart below shows US working age population of 25-54yrs/old employee’s peak in ’07 and the surging 65+ year old population…with no surge in the 0-25 year/old population (ie, those meant to eventually pay the tax bills and buy the boomers assets). Going forward, pretty clear the 0-25 year old population is likely to remain flat’ish while numbers of boomers moving into 65+ retirement zone will ramp by 10 million’ish coupled with all their social service needs to be met and assets to be sold. If you are starting to get the idea the Fed’s actions are to plug a demographic hole with monetary policy…good for you as you are 1 in a million in America who get it.
The chart below is the same as above but narrows in on ’00 to present…and shows how ludicrous the Government and Federal Reserve monetary response is to a demographic problem. One look at the flat lining young American population of 0-25 year olds vs. ramping 65+ year olds and it should be clear America’s population isn’t really growing…the boomer “pig through the python” which began with huge numbers is now retiring in huge numbers and will eventually pass away in huge numbers…and then the total US population flat lines or even begins falling. The debt being created hasn’t a chance to be repaid or even serviced (ever) at “market” rates.
The chart below shows the impact of the peaking 25-54 year old segment in ’07…mortgage debt and oil consumption also peak in ’07 / ’08 and fall in sympathy since. And governments and the Fed’s response to the most predictable crisis ever was to pour gasoline (debt) on the fire and pretend this is business as usual.
Now, two squiggly lines and a little divergence makes all the difference (below). Note from ’52 til present, the population continues to grow but job creation begins waning in ’00 and has only weakened further since. From ’07 to ’14, only 17 jobs were created for every 100 new participants in the economy (net, these were all part time new jobs)…this is down from 66 jobs for every new participant from ’50 to ’00 (and most these were full time positions).
Population growth vs. Job creation (net):
- ’52-’00 Population +125m — Jobs +83m = 66%
- ’00-’07 Population +20m — Jobs +20m = 30%
- ’07-’14 Population +17.4m — Jobs +2.9m = 17%
The chart below shows the slowing growth in jobs, rising debt, and complete disconnect of tax receipts from the debts they are intended to pay off or even service.
The chart below shows why the debt is such a problem…look at the growth in total debt vs. Federal tax receipts. That $2 trillion in federal tax receipts could sustainably pay for $98 trillion in total debt…well that’s a tough one to swallow. It’s obvious why the Fed and central banks are doing everything in their power to disguise the simple fact the US, Japan, and many more nations have gone bankrupt.
But what really took place can be attributed to the baby boom starting to go bust. Below, see the rise and fall of each demographic age grouping…the boomers progression through the US economy is so unmistakable. The peak of each age grouping is easily seen as the boomers moved through their life span. And the population nor employees within these categories has never come close to regaining boomer peaks.
And below is a view of the boomers departing the prime years of their careers and moving entirely into the 55+ set. The total employed population peaks and the peaking of the 25-54 year old sector is not coincidental with the economic meltdown of ’08-‘09. Boomers looked to begin selling assets but also continued working to make ends meet…and the generation behind is not in a position to support the boomers. The great recession and subsequent non-recovery is a battle with an unbeatable foe…the boomers exit from the work force, the drawdown of their assets, and their collection of underfunded pensions and unfunded social services. But the boomer generation is working longer (primarily in PT positions) and nearly all job growth since ’07 has been in the 55+ year old category (+7 million) and a loss of 4 million jobs from the 25-54 year old category (those who are supposed to raise their families while simultaneously support for the baby boom generation for the next 2 to 3 decades).
The chart below shows how ridiculous the asset values are vs. falling quantity and quality of jobs. Central Banks have been quite active replacing missing employee growth and wage growth with acronyms short for monetization.
BONUS CHARTS
Since ’08, the 55+ set did not head for the golf course but instead many kept on working (likely due to underfunded retirements, longer lifespans, and rising costs of living)…but the group in the prime of their family formation years, 35-54 years old, saw big job losses coupled with falling household incomes. How these 35-54 year olds will support the 55+ boomers in retirement, buy boomer homes and stocks as they downsize and sell off assets in retirement should be front page news. The growth is in part time, 55+ employees and total population. 25-54yr/old employees and Full Time jobs are falling.
Chart below shows the changing makeup of the US population…OLD and about to get much OLDER!!! That large build up in the 25-54 year old group will soon shift over into the 65+ year old category…and be supported by progressively fewer 25-54 year olds.
Jobs – Private vs. Government
Lastly, this one surprised me some…but government job growth has not been the demon I had heard about…likely still more government jobs than necessary but the total number of government jobs is declining and has shown no growth in the last decade. Good or bad, this slowdown of government jobs is also partly responsible for the falling number of full time jobs and falling median household income as private industry is net-net creating part time jobs rather than full time.
And finally, growth in government jobs has been slowing for 5 decades and is now negative; all job growth this decade is due to private sector job growth. Please note that big hole in job creation from ’00-’10…all job growth since ’10 is merely keeping pace with the larger US population but not making any headway in resolving the massive job dearth of ’00-’10. And an astute chart reader would also note that a larger total population is creating less population growth…and this declining rate of population growth is accelerating as we progress through this decade.
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Demographics is fate.
Didn't Harry Dent already do this? "Dow at 40,000!"
A big flaw in Dent's reasoning can be seen from a graphic from his site. Kids don't just disappear.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/42677317@N04/4812902218/
Family sizes are much smaller now than previous generations. There aren't as mant new families to replace those that are dying off. In 1945 there were roughly 3.9 children born per family vs the 1.9 today.
That's true, but have a look at the graphic. You'll see that he assumes a certain number of kids, and then for some reason assumes they (and the resources they are responsible for consuming) just disappear. I was a Dent fan until I considered this flaw.
i read that there are 7 bil deficating on this orb. the oceans are filled with plastic and the air is filled with chemtrails and radiation. politics is filled with shapeshifting reptilian psychopaths trying to find their souls. this clusterfuck is heavier than american demographics.
Why do you do that? Isn't reality bad enough, depressing enough without adding shapeshifting, reptilian overlords? Does it help you to deal with it? If you give it a thin outer coating of the fantastic are you able to disbelieve the whole thing?
what depresses me is people burying their heads in the sand.
When this all settles out there could be billions dead, and that's without any chem trails, or reptilian overlords. That's nothing but ordinary people problems, like resources, demographic shifts, and disasterous economic policy, no fantasies needed. I think you're the one with your head in the sand. You glimpse the truth and you run like a little girl into a fantastic world that you can't even truly believe.
Commodities know but someone remind the stawk market.
head in the sand. head up your ass. just a matter of degree. keep it out of both places and you might surprise yourself.
oh come on! I think you two agree more than you are willing to admit. and please, let's give some credit for the colorful and creative prose! "shapeshifting reptilian psychopaths" has a nice ring.
That's just it, I don't think he does believe. I'm beginning to think that conspiracy theory crap is nothing more than escapism. It's a comforting mechanism. Make it all unbelievable and you won't really believe it deep down inside. However, some of these guys are very creative and unintentionally funny.
conspiracy theory? how bout troll theory? i'm out ,frat boy. you're talking to yourself
"shapeshifting, reptilian overlords?"
Is this subliminal inspiration from the Pig in the python metaphor?
Apt metaphor BTW... Baby Boomers soon to be python poop
Yet, the elderly are not retiring as fast as one might think.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Ve9
Perhaps those who would otherwise have a fixed income don't like living off of Alpo Soufflé.
Sure, an aging population is a major issue, but we have other issues compounding that right now. Otherwise, we could just kill all of the old people and we'd be fine. Aside from the ethical implications of that being somewhere between Hitler and Stalin, it won't fix everything.
They'll retire when they're eligible for social security. They're just hanging in there because its so close.
fuck it
With the level of automation that is coming a decrease works, since we aren't going to be needing low skill people much longer. The problem is government has taken it upon itself to decide that if we aren't going to have children they will simply import them for us. We have outsourced even reproduction, but what they refuse to realize is that a warm body isn't enough. That body must fit into the society, and a Somali tribemen just doesn't quiet fit in any Western nation. Now we're going to have to take care of that guy until he dies, because he isn't going to be able to be productive in the near future. It's insane and is going to cause big problems.
Certainly what we need are tens of millions more immigrants who require welfare (40%), massive social services, huge amounts of infrastructure, foodstamps, and welfare.
You know, I buy Harry Dent's newsletter, and counsel. He may be correct, but his timing is a little off. I've been waiting for $250 gold, and 6000 Dow for four years. Coiled spring principle, I guess?
He correctly predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions
This all makes me think -- what we need is another war !! It's free since it's just debt anyway. Hillabush in '16 !!
LOL. Whocouldanode?
Many predictions are hard, but demographics is among the easiest.
The "Baby bust" is the problem. Why a baby bust? Endless propaganda about the "women's movement" and "population explosions", contraception, abortion, anti-family tax policy - lots and lots of counter-productive social engineering.
So now we have endless illegal immigration to "fix" the problem.
The social engineers have doubled down.
They traded a productive society for a controllable one.
That last sentence was solid gold (tho I do cringe at the implications).
I will add that the problem was hastened by the removal of some 8-10 million low to mid level mfg jobs in the US to China. And to top that, only those very skiled older workers retained their jobs, squeezing out the young newcomers. CEO pay and profit margins, however, have never been better since they are able to rape, pillage and accounting trick their way to fame and fortune. Not to mention social security not adjusting upwards yearly to account for the fact that people are living 10-30 yrs past retirement, which was definitely not how it was setup originally. SS bene's should start around 72-75 yrs old right now.
Further, all of the old "stabilizing" industries (mortgage, banking, insurance, etc) are now unpredictable casinos filled with bad paper and arsonists. These should be boring boring boring with stable rates of real return (no ZIRPs Mr Yellen).
Well, I see I'm standing on my idealistic soapbox, so I'd better go get off and give someone else a turn...
The baby bust would have worked. We would have been so fortunate to have a huge decrease in population exactly when we were running out of low skill jobs for them. It would have lined up nearly to perfection, if the government hadn't screwed it up.
Baby bust or no, half the population of the USA has an IQ under 100. They are functionally unable to acquire the skills necessary in a high tech economy.
Nevertheless these people must be able to find a way to make a living. Not merely find a job, but make a living.
We're going to go through a thing, because we have to. Our society cannot deal with emerging technology, because the rules we believe in don't function in that world. Basic things like toiling away at a job you don't like to make a living. That opportunity just isn't going to exist. We have to go away so something new can emerge than isn't saddled with our antiquated ideas like capitalism, and communism. They will have to look at life differently.
"We have to go away"??? Huh?
We certainly are not saddled with capitalism. We have a planned economy.
And if you are going to talk about a baby bust you've got to include the ones who are not here because we aborted them.
No matter how you stand on the matter.....50 million + have been aborted since Roe v. Wade.
And guess how many illegals we've let in during that same time period.
Work had to get done. And the Chamber of Commerce looked around and didn't see a growing workforce in the youth numbers.....and told the political parties......we need wage slaves boys. Get to work.
And they did.
The rules of our society aren't designed for a world where manual labor is a thing of the past, and without workers there is no capitalism, or communism. There isn't an economy as we know it. Our rules about working to survive won't apply anymore. Us, you and me, the old timers won't be able to adapt to this, so we'll go away in the transition.
Actually, there is one thing, and one thing only that can change this. If we were to take a giant leap in space travel The only place where there would be enough work for man and machine would be in space.
lot of charts....but from my view the s&p line has gone from the bottom left to the upper right without more than a 2 or 3 day interruption. no end in sight either. been reading these charts for 5 years now and we have done nothing but basically hit new highs for 1,800 days in a row and with permanent expansion of the monetary base I'll be we another 1,800 days straight up.
A study of demographics allows the otherwise-average intellect to view certain aspects of the future, becoming a seer of seers, a prognosticator of prognosticators.
I down-voted you, though, since demographics is not "fate".
This will all be fixed once the global loss of ife from WWIII takes place. Then we can start all over and repeat the same mistakes again, just on a much smaller scale.
"Then we can start all over"
Who is "we"?
There is no starting over on a completely irradiated planet. Every single nuclear plant melts down. Fukushima X 1,000. No hiding safely underground in a mountain for anyone. It's over.
I have five cans of beans a .22 and a gas mask. I plan on surviving. I'll be the last bad ass mother fucker left standing fighting off mutants and wild animals. Hey, that sounds like a movie.
In my movie the few survivors, who went underground, end up envying the dead. All life on the earth's surface dies. The silver lining is that after much agony the survivors die as well.
Fin.
you've watched too many movies. We dropped a bomb on Hiroshima. You remember that? Well here is Hiroshima.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshima
If there was a modern nuclear plant in Hiroshima, it would be a landfill.
Now multiply that by 1000.
And we're way past Peak Flint.
All I gots is a stick and a can of peaches
Yeah, but it's a really sharp stick.
Something about old men planting trees whom shade they shall never sit in comes to mind.
politicians...reaping what they've sown....
Voters vote their pocketbooks. History has shown this to be a fact. Voters are to blame. All you need to do is count the people you know who receive a check from the government each month and those who get nothing and the absolute certainty of our nation's failure is apparent. Tick tock bitches.
It's more insidious than that. Take Social Security, for example. We're told that we have to pay into the system for our own good. Our only choice to opt out is to not work, at least not in anything not considered a black market. We pay in, and we're supposed to get benefits that we paid for when we were younger. Then the government replaces the Social Security fund with government IOUs to fund its waste and corruption. So we're forced to lend money to the government. To make it even worse, it is dependent on more people paying in than receiving benefits. That means that it requires growth, and the bigger it gets, the faster it has to grow on an absolute, not relative scale.
It is a pyramid scheme, and you are paying for it. I'd want my cut too if it actually was around when I turned old enough to accept benefits. But I seriously doubt it will be. I expect us to revert to the mean of human existance, or at least much closer than we are. I expect that Social Security will be me sitting on the porch snapping beans while the youngsters do the heavy labor when I'm that age.
Which is the reason for undocumented persons amnesty imo. Both sides of the aisle want as much new blood in the system as possible in order to keep the SS ponzi alive.
You are so right. I have long said that was the real reason behind no politicians actually doing anything about all the legal and illegal immigration, they could see the writing on the wall. However I think there are a lot of retirees and soon to be retirees that are fooling themselves if they think 100 million Central American immigrants are going to agree to take care of them and pay their outlandish fairytale pensions.
Yes my MIL retired at 60 and used up all the benefits she had put in to SS clearly in just a few years. She travelled the world and had a wonderful retirement and is now 85. It's all about the luck of birth time. Percentage wise we have put in far more and are probably screwed. I tell her I hope she enjoyed the fact we had paid for her SS during that time. "But I put into the system!" Is her only response.
Miffed
The people who run the show and control government are solely to blame.
Voters are not given real choices ever. Voting changes nothing.
A Princeton study revealed that the effect of the average citizen on government policy is nil.
Boy, I would have up-clicked you, except for that last sentence.
Princeton is about as flamingly nutty as harvard or yale or brown or "other school".
Fucking Krugman "teaches" there.
I don't normally give Princeton much credit, but this was a rare contrarian study.
I remember reading in 2007 somewhere that "2007 is the peak year for consumer spending among the boomers". I think the calculation done at that time was the assumption that peak spending occurs at age 55, then trends down. According to the above, that seems to be true. A consumer based economy with spending in decline, but redemptions going up, is a recipe for submission to another country that does not have the same financial strains. It will happen.
Demographics+technologhy+dying debt based fiat currency=MAKO
too many people.
not enough jobs.
a spineless, power hungry government that hands out benefits in exchange for power.
immoral / corrupt / greedy bankers chasing money, throwing caution to the wind in the pursuit of ever more money.
what sucks now is everyone is to dumb and lazy to pull out of this. going to get ugly unless you are on disability
Consider also that the deaths from the world wars were not random: they were concentrated among dominant/alpha males. Some countries suffered a much greater loss than others. The US and Russia got off light as a percentage of population. France and Japan suffered the worst, entire civilizations stripped of first-rate masculinity (Vera Brittain's term). What were recently dynamic and expanding empires have been utterly gelded, with obvious consequences for their culture and politics and the global balance of power. Just look at the state of Japan now compared to one hundred years ago. Shameful.
good point. now we are propping up underachievers and they are out breeding the alphas who are paying for them
Exactly as intended. A new breed of dumbed-down man who'll be putty in the hands of his globalist masters. (See also mass Third World immigration to White - and only White - countries)
,,,yessir.... step right up... free ebt cards and obamyfones as well as free citizenship for all illegalas as long as they vote deomocrap...
Wasn't one of Edgar Cayce's predictions that Japan would be wiped from the planet?
Actually Japan predicted Edgar would be wiped from the planet....ironic eh?
Dude.... Russia lost the most lives in WW2 - Soviet Union 25 million, China lost 15 million souls, followed by 8 million Germans and 5 million poles. Thats note light
What about 6 million Jews?
Happily most of the six million killed survived the war. At least that's the way it looks to me.
What are you saying? The population of NY and Palm Beach increased by 6 million? Is that it?
MalteseFalcon, -- About them 6 millions jews; http://therebel.website/en/editorial/715863-before-and-after
"If you cut a Jew, does he not bleed?"
Russia did not get off light in WWII. The USSR lost something like 10% of its population, or 20 million.
Gee, that must be almost as many as Stalin eliminated before the war.
USSR did NOT get off lightly, especially if you factor in the millions lost during Stalin's purges which were around the same time. France was by no means worst hit. Germany's losses of its finest were absolutely horrendous but I believe that in terms of men of fighting age the worst casualties of all - proportionally - were incurred by Serbia.
You're correct re Serbia.
The Serbs are the Paraguayans of Europe: not a major cultural force, but nobody doubts their willingness to die for their country, right or wrong.
A first world country, highly productive, great life expectance, bit overpopulated (but they're fixing that). Haven't started a war in a while.
What's so shameful about that?
The essential issue is that wealth was stored as paper promises rather than as real things. This allowed governments to continue printing more currency but they had to develop a system of storing 'wealth' as paper promises or the price of real things would have gone way up. What is required is for the reality of the value of all that paper to be revealed. The real value will be shockingly low and all those who hold paper will share the suffering.
I suspect that in the monetary system that follows the world will find gold to be a superior medium for wealth storage and even tough the price will be much higher it will be stable, influenced by the amount of currency printed and the relative hoarding/dishoarding done by the owners of gold.
Big banks will not be needed in such a system. They will return to performing utility functions. You won't likely get a toaster when you open an account and Spiderman towels are definitely a thing of the past.
but i need three more spidey towels to complete the set.
Hmmm, now I get Obamacare.........
Great charts, thanks for the article
"Demographics - Why The Great Recession Started (And Won't End Anytime Soon)"
It is phase one of the Second Great Depression, which is why it hasn't ended yet and the worst is yet to come.
I have a bit of a problem blaming demographics, as the choice-less inevitability absolves those responsible. I remember every few years since the early 1980's asking my liberal parents "What percent of GDP for Government is enough?" and never getting a straight answer but it was always higher than it was at the time of the asking. The wealth generated by the babyboomers has been over spent on a now massive and expensive Government and underspent on private captal investment. With no will to cut Government, the rest of the economy continues to whither. It is now at the point where the economic effects of massive Government is affecting demographics to the ruin of all.
I don't think it will ever be enough, it will have to keep going up as the median value of labour keeps dropping.
post industrial society is coming to an economy near you. no more ceramic duck salt and pepper shakers for you.
I'm skeptical of these "blame demographics for our problems" arguments. Demographics can be fixed in the blink of an eye through smart immigration policies. It's not the demographics that is killing our economy, it is the lack of economic opportunities as a result of the Keynesian borrow and spend a thon. And that last paragraph about government employment going down? Try including all the shadow government contractors and then tell me government employment is shrinking again...
Fixing the demographics by immigration is a substitution not a fix. There are debt issues that need to be adderssed as well. Nothing will change by simply immigration. rinse repeat.
A lot is made of the ageing demographics problem
BUT
throughout Europe there is record youth unemplyment.
Explain?
Batman11, -- I don't want 20 year olds in my workplace or especially in my home.
excess labor. there is only so much crap besides food, clothing, shelter and transportation that a person wants to buy despite the unlimited demand argument. in a structure that rewards increased productivity, i.e., less labor, the goal of excess labor is reached. here we are. labor is cheap because there is too much of it. even in china and india, the amount of excess labor will insure a huge number will never be employed. ironicall, excess labor means low wages. low wages means less money to buy stuff besides neccessities. that means no more demand for excess crap. that means depression for the working class. that means moar money for the .1% who own the neccessities.
Growth of the parasite eventually kills off the host
.gov has killed the job creating private sector
Falling net energy is an even bigger issue.
We are running out of cheap energy, so we are switching to expensive energy. It is not going well and it will get worse. Much worse.
The stated losses for Germany does not include civilian losses, "other losses", and losses due to genocidal programs from the victors. "No one will ask the victors if they told the truth." -- A. Hitler.
And then there is this; http://kevinmacdonaldespanol.wordpress.com/2013/04/16/americas-unpardonable-crime/
I'll say it won't end. These pols, particularly in Washington, show no signs of stopping the spending. Obamacare, in one form or another, is going to go forward. The economy will never be what it was before Bush and Obama and their parties in congress (and it wasn't as good as it could have been then), at least not until there's another revolution for freedom and government is properly downsized. It starts with the right ideas, not with a political party.
Demographics affect all sorts of things. In a rapidly growing population, men have the upper hand in dating/marriage, because each year there are more younger females. It was like that in the 60s and 70s; women had to put up with a lot. Now it is the opposite; men are stuck putting up with a lot. You can blame feminism, but demographics are huge. I remember when I first saw a highly paid, extremely successful guy whose wife was 17 years older than him (and she had dreadful kids from a former marriage, whom he has been helping support for decades now). I thought WTF??? Then I realized that he wanted someone who would be nice to him and take care of him. No, he doesn't cheat on her. We have a neighbor in the same arrangement; he has been married for many years to a woman 18 years older than him (and he is an extremely successful professor of medical research); she has rather awful kids and grandkids whom he helps support.
I have an acquaintence whose daughter (33 y.o.) just filed from divorce from her husband. Not a bad husband, and extremely economically successful, but he just wasn't making her happy (fortunately no kids, and grandma has taken in the ancient dogs). I can see that guy marrying some old lady (well, 15 years older anyway); boy has he gone through the psychological wringer and now "kindly" will be his top criterion. I think his fomer mother in law (very nice lady; has tolerated an "okay" marriage forever and plans to continue) is probably looking pretty good.
None of this is good. It wasn't good when men had the upper hand, and it isn't good now.
Outstanding article.