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Economic Data Bonanza Set To Send Algos Spasming To Recorder Highs
With the wind down of the record 2014 trading slump now in its final days (although judging by volumes throughout the year one may have a difficult time noticing just when the holidays began and ended), the already entertaining zero-liquidity market moves are sure to provide further amusement today in the context of the US economic data bonanza on deck, which includes Durable Goods, GDP, Personal Income and Spending, Richmond Fed, UMich, and New Home Sales. Beat or miss, all of the above are guaranteed to send the S&P to higher recorder highs because in the multiple-expansion euphoria blow-off top phase nobody cares about such trivia as fundamentals or the economy, especially when Japan and Germany are about to monetize all of their gross issuance. Just remember to occasionally keep an eye on the preferred rigging correlation pairs: the USDJPY and the VIX, whose every illiquid jerk will be followed by Citadel & NYFed's algos tic for tic.
As we enter further into the festive period, things are particularly quiet from a European perspective with most EU indices trading in the green with the exception of the FTSE MIB and IBEX who trade relatively unchanged amid a lack of pertinent newsflow. The main outlier in Europe is the Athens stock exchange which trades lower with losses of just under 2% ahead of the second round of voting in the Greek Presidential elections. Today we saw that Stavros Dimas is unable to secure the required 200 votes for a majority in the second presidential vote round, getting just 168 of the 200 votes needed. And now we await the third round of votes where the threshold will be lowered to 180. If Dimas fall short of this level then it will trigger snap elections which would favour the anti-euro far-left Syriza party.
Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk
- FX markets remain tentative with GBP the underperformer following the weak UK final Y/Y GDP reading (2.6% vs. Exp. 3.0%)
- Treasuries steady as week’s auctions continue with $13b 2Y FRN and $35b 5Y notes; latter yield 1.675% in WI trading vs 1.595% in Nov.; 1.80% award at Sept. auction was highest since May 2011.
- U.K. GDP rose 0.7% in 3Q as consumers drove a seventh straight quarter of growth as the euro-area slump held back exports and investment plunged
- ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson says in interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung that the ECB sees risk of losses on government debt purchases, prefers ECB buy corporates rather than sovereigns
- Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed in his second effort to get lawmaker backing for his nominee for president and avert snap general elections
- Russian lawmakers pushed through a bill to aid banks, one day after the central bank announced its biggest bailout of a retail lender since the ruble’s collapse began
- China is stepping up its role as the lender of last resort to some of the world’s most financially strapped countries, including Russia, Argentina and Venezuela
- Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to investigate his predecessor’s top aide for corruption marks the downfall of the remaining “tiger” in a group that Communist Party cadres termed the “New Gang of Four”
- New York City mayor Bill de Blasio is trying to heal rifts with police who accuse him of fostering an environment that contributed to the killing of two officers
- Sovereign yields mostly lower. Asian stocks mixed, European stocks gain, U.S. equity-index futures higher. Brent crude and gold higher, copper lower
- Looking ahead, today sees the release of Canadian & US GDPs, US
Durable Goods Orders, Univ. of Michigan Confidence, New Home Sales and
Personal Income as well as the outcome of the second round of Greek
Presidential elections.
US Economic Datas
- 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Nov., est. 3.0% (prior 0.4%, revised 0.3%)
- Durables Ex Transportation, Nov., est. 1% (prior -0.9%, revised -1.1%)
- Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Nov., est. 1% (prior -1.3, revised -1.6%)
- Cap Goods Shipments Nondef Ex Air, Nov., est. 1.3% (prior -0.4%, revised -0.7%)
- 8:30am: GDP Annualized q/q, 3Q, est. 4.3% (prior 3.9%)
- Personal Consumption, 3Q, est. 2.5% (prior 2.2%)
- GDP Price Index, 3Q, est. 1.4% (prior 1.4%)
- Core PCE q/q, 3Q, est. 1.4% (prior 1.4%)
- 9:00am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Oct., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
- 9:55am: Univ. of Michigan Confidence, Dec. final, est. 93.5 (prior 93.8)
- 10:00am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Dec., est. 7 (prior 4)
- 10:00am: New Home Sales, Nov., est. 460k (prior 458k)
- New Home Sales m/m, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%)
- 10:00am: Personal Income, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%)
- Personal Spending, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%)
- PCE Deflator m/m, Nov., est. -0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- PCE Deflator y/y, Nov., est. 1.2% (prior 1.4%)
- PCE Core m/m, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
- PCE Core y/y, Nov., est. 1.5% (prior 1.6%)
- 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5Y notes
FX markets remain relatively subdued with the USD-index residing in modest negative territory (-0.14%) and most major pairs trading in a relatively rangebound manner. AUD saw a bout of underperformance overnight after coming under pressure led by heavy selling in AUD/JPY following a break below the 100DMA seen at 97.30, with AUD/USD now below 0.8100, for the first time since August 6th 2010. However, AUD has since pulled away from its worst levels. Elsewhere, Russian state companies are to sell USD 1bln a day to prop RUB, according to Kommersant. In terms of levels to look out for today, at 1.5600 in GBP/USD there is a USD 1.3bln option expiry due to roll off at the 10am NY cut. Finally, GBP/USD saw a fast-money move lower of around 40 pips following the weaker than expected final UK Y/Y GDP reading (2.6% vs. Exp. 3.0%).
In energy markets, both WTI and Brent crude futures trade in positive territory after WTI spiked higher over 1% in a 1min interval to a high of USD 56.85/bbl, following a volume surge. Elsewhere, in metals markets spot gold traded with gains overnight on a mild rebound from yesterday’s losses where the precious metal declined by almost 2%. Elsewhere, copper prices remained near yesterday’s lows where prices declined amid continued concerns of slowing demand from China.
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Happy Christmas.....from Skynet.
At Skynet we're here to serve your every need.....for now.
Skynet just destroyed a unknow base on the north pole where preperation where in progress to launch a maned craft over the US tought to be Russian in nature.
EVERYBODY IS SAVED ONCE AGAIN!!!
Okay, you may rise.
Merry Xmas for those long the SPX, here is a treat for you - the Santa Rally we promised.
Yours,
FRB
ECB
BOJ
BTFATH Bob!
"Reality is an affliction upon those with no Imagination".
Just remember, that reality eventually always makes a comeback and it's an affliction only for those who ignore it.
Reality is what you perceive, no matter the surrounding circumstances.
U are either very very young, naive, or just plain ignoring the truth about so-called reality and its place in the cosmos.
Certain facets of human existence, like trees falling in the woods whether you see them fall or not, are always, real.
However, once you introduce hairy apes with a slightly larger brain into the mix all reality becomes a dice roll as to whether it makes a comeback or not.
Think about your parents if they have passed on to become carbon, and never had to deal with the problems they created by voting for some douchebag socialist, or capitalist pig, and his accomplices in the cabinet, the CONgress, and private capital. My parents shuffled off their mortal coils living in an imagined world that never saw the daylight of reality, truth, or fact.
While 'reality' may one day make a comeback, if you aren't here to endure it, or profit from it if you've made the right moves, you never have to deal with it.
A sign that you have achieved the first level of wisdom is: Knowing what to ignore. (a. Einstein)
Think about it.
The current situation reminds of those experiments they conducted years ago where they had monkeys throwing colors at canvas and journalists throwing darts at lists of stocks.
Those experiments did not go too well but it must be said that the monkeys are now in charge.
Let's be honest here, in that we might actually be better off if real monkeys were in charge. At least most real monkeys have been observed to show good reason and judgement to varying degrees at times. It seems those in charge have regressed to the level below even real monkeys.
This? This is nothing but a sad attempt at a three ringed circus where none of the animals are behaving and Jojo the clown is walking around drunk off his ass.
All markets in the land of the free are fraudulent:
The Lawless Manipulation of the Gold and Silver Bullion MarketsBy Dr. Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler
The Federal Reserve and its bullion bank agents are actively using uncovered futures contracts to illegally manipulate the prices of precious metals in order to keep interest rates below the market rate. The purpose of manipulation is to support the U.S. dollar’s reserve status at a time when the dollar should be in decline from the over-supply created by QE and from trade and budget deficits.
Historically, the role of gold and silver has been to function as a means of exchange and a store of wealth during periods of economic and political turmoil. Since the bullion bull market began in late 2000, It rose almost non-stop until March 2008, ahead of the Great Financial Crisis, which started with the collapse of Bear Stearns. When Bear Stearns collapsed, gold was taken down over the course of the next 7 months from $1035 to $680, or 34%; silver from $21 to $8, or 62%. The most violent takedown occurred as Lehman collapsed and Goldman Sachs was about to collapse. This takedown occurred during a period of time when gold should have been going parabolic in price. The price of gold finally took off in late October 2008 from $680 to $1900 while the Government and the Fed were busy printing money to bail out the banks. While the price of gold rose nearly 300% from late 2008 to September 2011, the U.S. dollar lost over 17% of its value, falling from 89 on the dollar index to 73.50.
The current takedown of gold from $1900 to $1200 has occurred during a period of time when financial and political fraud and corruption becomes worse and more blatant by the day. Along with this, the intensity and openness with which the metals are systematically beat down seems to grow by the day.
What we have been experiencing since the 2008 crisis is not only the subordination of US economic policy to the needs of banks “too big to fail,” but also the subordination of law and the financial regulatory agencies to the interests of a few private banks. The manipulation of the bullion markets is illegal whether done by private parties or on public authority, and so we have the spectacle of the US government supporting a handful of banks via illegal means. Not only has economic accountability been set aside, but also legal accountability.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-lawless-manipulation-of-the-gold-bullio...
Does that mean I buy more or dump what I bought?
Yes
Its illegal, wow.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/the-region/f-augustus-heinze...
Heinze, a member of a Montana copper mining family, sold most of his mining shares for $12 million in 1906, moved to New York, bought a bank and became a director in a national financial chain involving banks and trusts—an affiliation that embroiled him in the growing battle between banks and trust companies.
At the turn of the century the banking industry felt threatened by the new trust companies (and their young, wealthy financiers) and decided to sway public and congressional opinion by making an example of a trust company with connections to Heinze, namely, Knickerbocker Trust. If Knickerbocker Trust would falter, then Congress and the public would lose faith in all trust companies and banks would stand to gain, the bankers reasoned.
"Silent runs" began on Heinze's bank and Knickerbocker Trust, and Heinze made a questionable loan to his brothers, who were faltering as owners of a copper company. In October 1907, Heinze's brothers made a failed attempt to corner the copper market on the stock exchange, which allowed a competitor to exploit the Heinze family's financial problems. Heinze was then forced to resign as president of his bank, "scare headlines" appeared in newspapers, runs started on both Heinze's bank and Knickerbocker Trust, and both institutions were initially denied financial aid to keep from failing—each event purposely caused, according to McNelis.
"The panic had long since been decreed and prepared and was inevitably on its way ... The Clearing House refused to help and [Knickerbocker Trust] had to close its doors. Charles Barney, its president, shot and killed himself that night and runs started on nearly every bank and trust company in New York," wrote one of Heinze's brothers.
The financial fires that were intended to ruin Heinze and the trust companies quickly roared out of control and the Panic of 1907 became a nondiscriminatory economic catastrophe for the entire nation. Six years later, partly as a means to quench such fires, the Federal Reserve System was born.
In her analysis, McNelis does not disregard other factors for the cause of the 1907 bank runs—for example, corporate speculation, overextended capital and the general demand for money. Indeed, she says those problems alone were possibly enough to touch off a financial panic that year just as they had in years past—but such a possibility does not eliminate the evidence of a personal vendetta gone awry.
As for Heinze, the events of October 1907 brought a total of 16 counts of financial malfeasance. However, a series of fortunate incidents in the courts led to his complete exoneration in 1909, and on Nov. 7 of that year he returned to Butte, Mont.:
Despite full exoneration by the courts and a triumphant return home (Montanans never lost touch with Heinze, having followed his New York exploits in the local press), the events of October 1907 left an indelible mark on his life: his mining ventures collapsed, his relationships with his brothers (former business partners) were destroyed, his marriage failed and his health disintegrated. He became "distraught in appearance"; at 37, his hair was almost completely white.
In 1914, just 44 years old, Heinze suffered a hemorrhage of the stomach caused by cirrhosis of the liver, and died.
Don't worry Russia will save us
http://www.swfinstitute.org/swf-article/russia-analyzes-diminishing-opti...
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/576746/20141222/russia-israel-war-vladimi...
The purpose of manipulation is to support the U.S. dollar’s reserve status at a time when the dollar should be in decline from the over-supply created by QE and from trade and budget deficits.
USA USA USA!!!
Do you believe in miracles?
The key to sucking is making sure everyone else sucks more.
This is so far beyond "Manipulation" it should be a crime to call it that.
In private the financers call it "perceived risk" and move on to their next conspiracy.
Get on your cleanest dirty shirts boys and girls. It is christmas time in the city!
Time to get the 18k hats out boys and girls!
What's 18k got to do with the price of tea in china?
You still buy shit from China? Who gives a shit about the price of tea in China. /sarc
Whose underwriting this ' guarentee ' ?
The MBF. Morally Bankrupt Fed.
So, is a recorder high sort of like a flute high? Or more piccolo?
Know what a Zamfir is Leon...? Same thing. 'Let's continue, shall we...'?
If I had one of those computers and knew everyone was out of the office on vacation...and the market was left to me...alone....I would use the hell out of it...taking out stops left and right......for a few million dollars you can get stocks at a 30% discount....just for a millisecond...
But then again you can always tank gold and silver...
I suppose the collapse in the price of oil is also a huge conspiracy, and has nothing to do with the deflating money and credit bubble?
Looking forward to hearing wildly convoluted theories about JPM being short oil (but no one has the other side), that there are trillions in derivatives that will cause TEOTWAWKI, even though no one making these claims has even seen a single one of these contracts, let alone has the ability to understand one if they did.
Pure entertainment.
AUD looks like a death trap
There is no exogenous cause argument that holds water... QE does not move markets and never has...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dont-get-ruined-by-these-10-popular-i...
Ok all you bottleheads, is that a KT88 or a 6550 in the caption...? I gots to know.