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Fed Tightening On Deck After Q3 GDP Soars To 5% On Revisions, Highest Since 2003

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And just like that Q3 GDP, the one for the quarter ended Sept.30, was revised from 3.9% (which in turn was revised higher from 3.5%) to a mindblowing 5% - the highest print since Q3 2003 when GDP rose by 6.9%. This was above the highest Wall Street forecast of 4.7%, higher even than Joe Lavorgna's. The drivers: unprecedented revisions to Personal Consumption which supposedly rose by 3.2% in Q3 as opposed to the 2.2% prior reported, and 2.5% expected. Consumption accounted for 2.21% of the final 5.0% GDP print: this was the highest since Q4 2010 when it rose 2.8%. In fact, everything was revised higher: fixed investment rose 1.21% compared to the 0.97% reported previously; private inventories were virtually unchanged after allegedly subtracting 0.6% from growth in the original Q3 GDP estimate; net trade was unchanged adding 0.77% to GDP and finally the government boosted GDP a little as well, contributing 0.8%.

In other words, it is all downhill from here, as the subprime fueled boom in consumer spending in the late summer will certainly not be repeated any time soon, Q4 capex is crashing (as the durables report just confirmed), and inventory restocking took place far earlier than expected, meaning expectations of a low 2% pring for Q4 GDP will now have to be revised lower as consumption was pulled aggressively into the present.

GDP breakdown by component:

And a longer-term view of GDP:

After this report if there was any doubt if the trapped Fed will hike rates in April, it is now gone, unless of course, the market "crashes" by a whopping 5% between now and then and pull the Bullards out of the woodwork once again.

 

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Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:53 | 5584594 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

This rocket ride never ends! It sure feels

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:01 | 5584631 Stackers
Stackers's picture

And the Lord said: "Let them have hockey sticks" and the heavens did open and rain down hockey sticks upon the central planning masters

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:07 | 5584654 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Wait, wait! Is there still time for me to revise my income for the year?

 

Look, we might as well all go home and give up. Reality has lost all relevance, and this proves it is getting worse. We might as well surrender and start drinking heavily.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:10 | 5584663 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

When you have full control of the printing press, you can goal seek any number you want. Or just out and out lie.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:15 | 5584680 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

MMMmmmm....that was a tasty crop report, now wasn't it?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:22 | 5584717 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Good news is bad news is bad news is good news is good news is bad news which makes good news being bad news when bad news means good news unless good news means more good news unless good news is bad for bad news until bad news trumps good news but good news is still good news even though that means that bad news....

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:19 | 5584694 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

None of this makes any sense given the down trends we have been watching. What source is the primary contributor to this GDP? Are they doing some positive economic credit to GDP for each new illegal flagged into the country? Or is it simply the wealth generation multiplier from the stock market? The government would not generate and publicize these numbers unless it was for purposes of influence. To create an excuse for the next big thing.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:17 | 5584945 fuu
fuu's picture

"What source is the primary contributor to this GDP? "

 

Healthcare and government spending?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:23 | 5584983 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Defense spending rose 16%.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:25 | 5584989 fuu
fuu's picture

So government spending...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:30 | 5585005 Usurious
Usurious's picture

dont forget 'synthetic debt'.....

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:23 | 5584971 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

"The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE (personal consumption expenditures), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government
spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased."

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:08 | 5584655 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

Cue the Zamboni's

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:10 | 5584661 Sovereign Economist
Sovereign Economist's picture

OMFG!!!  "Let them have hockey sticks..."   I haven't laughed so hard in a MONTH!!!!   WOW!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:03 | 5584639 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

As long as one licks the blotter paper and smokes the doob, the ride will keep going.

As for the GDP print, methinks they need to remove the weather coefficient from the equation.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:55 | 5584595 azura888
azura888's picture

A nice little preview of the data misses we are going to get next month

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:54 | 5584596 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

GDP isnt inflation corrected..... food prices went up GDP went up...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:30 | 5584754 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

No shit.  I can't find a chunk of corned beef for less than $20, and that's a puny one that won't give any leftovers.  The 1.5 qt. "half-gallon" of ice cream was about $4.00 at the store yesterday.  Even a bag of bread flour was $4.50.  

Think I'll buy an iPad on Dec. 26 and eat that instead.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:51 | 5585080 winchester
winchester's picture

i sell ipod classic on ebay, go check.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:01 | 5584882 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

It's real GDP, not nominal.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:14 | 5584932 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ergo why they lie about inflation and change its calculation regularly.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:27 | 5584995 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

The increase in current dollars was 6.4%.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 14:37 | 5585672 Roger Shermanator
Roger Shermanator's picture

If oil prices keep dropping, watch the BLS re-insert energy back into the CPI-U.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:54 | 5584598 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

the new GDP calculation seems to be working perfectly.  

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:58 | 5584615 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

yep.  they finally realized:  "hey, if we're just making this shit up anyways, why not make it look really good?"

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:14 | 5584677 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

But they are doing it for us. A little Christmas gift of optimism, consumer confidence before the commercial season has passed.

The Titanic has stopped its slide beneath the waves. Instead we find ourselves grounded far out at sea...and guess what, no help is coming. The upper decks are still secure and dry but those below decks have already succumbed. Instead of a quick cold death we are left to a slow process of delusion of being saved, internal fighting and ultimately starvation and cannibalism.

I got that Christmas spirit going on! Zombie Christmas!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:06 | 5584641 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

And no one remembers or even mentions it. Apparently the best way to boost GDP is to change the calculation. It's the key to growth.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:13 | 5584673 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Just like they changed the way inflation is calculated.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:14 | 5584674 mayhem_korner
Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:54 | 5585093 winchester
winchester's picture

---> negative is positive ***

---> positive is positive

 

 

*** hint = this vote is rigged, sponsored by the fed and gdp hooker blows boosted

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:25 | 5584721 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Clearly the creators of this farce are Johnny Mercer fans" You gotta accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative."

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:54 | 5584599 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Does anyone believe that GDP grew by 5%?  Or inflation was understated by 3% to 5% boosting the GDP by 3% to 5%?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:01 | 5584627 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Well, the third quarter was very good for my biz.

The fourth however, went straight into the shitter.

Maybe BLS can hedonisically adjust the year to five quarters.

They do adjust everything else.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:22 | 5584975 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Was it good because fundamentals were great, or did you do like my firm did....pulled ahead 4th qtr sales into 3rd qtr, inventories fell, plan is to rebuild inventories to maximum levels in 4thqtr but there will not be normal sales (because it was pulled ahead). I think everyone senses doom, even businesses. The goal is now to 'prepare' your business for another recessionary hit....hopefully the wise will head the warnings and take approriate steps...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:19 | 5584956 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

3Q price deflator was 1.4% in this estimate, unchanged from the second estimate, and down from 2% in 2Q.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:56 | 5584601 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Lies, lies, lies, yea...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:57 | 5584604 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

GDP 5% + Unemployment 5.8% = ZIRP?? 

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:17 | 5584688 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I think the appropriate phrase is "It's different this time."

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:20 | 5584960 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Not for much longer.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:55 | 5585098 winchester
winchester's picture

lmfao

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:57 | 5584606 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Blah Blah Blah..... GDP just measure the rate that we blow thru the borrowed money anyways.  There is no organic growth anymore. 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:59 | 5584626 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Does that mean the green shoots are dead?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:56 | 5584607 matt1021_98
matt1021_98's picture

Q3 GDP highest in 11 years

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:07 | 5584653 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

With 46 million still receiving food stamps...compared with 33 million in 2008 and 25 million in 2004. 

It's a PONZ-I-CON-OMY

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:34 | 5584729 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Blow off top ?

(Energizer) Tesla Bunny !

FED up ... rates ?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:57 | 5584609 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Inflation - Deflation = Stagflation. 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:56 | 5585102 winchester
winchester's picture

unemployment + EBT = playstation

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:56 | 5584610 OneTinTrooper
OneTinTrooper's picture

Who buys durable goods any more?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:58 | 5584621 29.5
29.5's picture

I think the question is, where are the durable goods?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:30 | 5584747 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Paper products...tissue thin.

Where's the meat ?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:37 | 5584784 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

That's the problem, or part of how they are boasting GDP. Everything is build NOT to last. It's a good way to mask inflation. If something lasts half as long, it really means it costs twice as much.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:28 | 5584998 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

At the Dept. of Defense.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:57 | 5584612 Quirkel
Quirkel's picture

Wow GREAT numbers...the economy is hitting on all cylinders....as long as you're in DC or NY

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:57 | 5584617 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Bullshit.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:29 | 5584738 negative rates
negative rates's picture

And if you like your Bullshit, you can keep your bullshit.

And we Bullshitted some folks.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 09:59 | 5584622 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

I guess CNBC cheerleaders and Aunti Yellen were correct...

 

TO think I missed the boat...

 

Its all ZH fault, time to file a law suit...

 

 

disclaimer: sarc

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:01 | 5584628 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So why aren't they raising rates?

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:04 | 5584642 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Haha - that's a good one.  Never gonna get tired of hearing that little gem.  Raise rates?  Ah, kids these days...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:20 | 5584966 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

They will.  They're being "patient".

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:00 | 5584630 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

mr valentine (yellen) has set the price

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:02 | 5584632 KashNCarry
KashNCarry's picture

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:06 | 5584649 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Wrongo-that quote is from Mark Twain not Benjamin Disreali

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:28 | 5584746 KashNCarry
Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:02 | 5584633 jet813
jet813's picture

lol love to visit the world of the paranoid every now and then - 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:02 | 5584635 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

the gewbermant reports sales (GDP) were up, so now the gewberment can buy MOAR STAWKS

 

buy yellen buy, you glutinous foul pig

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:01 | 5584636 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

GDP = Grossly Defrauded Picture

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:06 | 5584644 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

2007 all over again

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:17 | 5584684 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Has that feel.

Time to batten down the hatches, and pull in any A/Rs now.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:06 | 5584647 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

The propaganda ministry is swinging for the fences.  

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:12 | 5584656 Sovereign Economist
Sovereign Economist's picture

Yanno... there comes a point when ya just 'effin' run out of words to describe the BS!!!!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:20 | 5584698 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Indeed.  Your jaw drops and your eye glaze with that WTF look.   

It's a Winston Smith moment.  

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:09 | 5584658 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

And despite the increase in GDP, Corporate Profits fell from one year ago by 6.26% year over year.

We cannot afford growth of this nature much longer.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:15 | 5584679 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

We'll make it up in volume.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:20 | 5584706 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

LOL!!!!   Dying on that one.  So funny. THX!!!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:10 | 5584659 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Wow, does anyone believe these numbers, day after day. Are people that stupid?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:13 | 5584676 wmbz
wmbz's picture

YES!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:09 | 5584660 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So lets see..... GDP value for Q3 was $284B... Govt debt increased by $422B, personal debt increased by $51B and Corp debt increased by $110B.... Thus it takes $583B of debt to generate $284 B of GDP growth.... Yea that is sustainable....

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:11 | 5584668 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Pretty easy to grow at 5% when you ignore 8% worth of inflation!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:11 | 5584669 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Meanwhile, in the real world...

All this Fed-Asserted 'GDP-Growth' (a.k.a. Prosperity) has resulted in...

...trade contraction during the Christmas season?????

 

What is that smell?  Something in that data stinks!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:12 | 5584670 SharkBit
SharkBit's picture

bla, bla, bla

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:13 | 5584672 aleph0
aleph0's picture

 

"Q3 GDP Soars To 5%"

... measure the GDP in Gold Ounces, then we'll see how much Inflation added to the GDP.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:14 | 5584675 alexmark2013
alexmark2013's picture
Rob Kirby - "Buckle Up, The Ride Is About To Begin!" Banksters' Plans For 2015 - The Cabal And The Next Step In The Financial Collapse http://investmentwatchblog.com/rob-kirby-buckle-up-the-ride-is-about-to-begin-banksters-plans-for-2015-the-cabal-and-the-next-step-in-the-financial-collapse/
Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:15 | 5584678 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

If the Fed needs to back off its monetary manipulations -- and it does for reasons which have nothing to do with the performance of the economy -- the economic numbers will reflect the wisdom of backing off and the need to do so.

That's what economic numbers are for, duh...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:24 | 5584724 Börjesson
Börjesson's picture

Exactly! That the numbers are a lie is obvious. The real question is - why are they lying? What do they hope to achieve? It would seem that for some reason, because of indicators we know nothing about (concerning the failing health of the petrodollar?), the Fed urgently needs to tighten its policy and actually raise interest rates - or at the very least, to keep the narrative of an imminent rate rise alive. So they have to create an alibi for doing so. And the more blatant the lie, the more desperate the need.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:27 | 5584740 A_latvian
A_latvian's picture

Obama and his Federal Reserve will keep the market inflated with phony economic numbers and jobs reports until somewhere around October of 2016.  Then the bottom will fall out, liberals will blame the banks, and the fascist Democrats will be swept into power again.  All according to plan.

We are all pawns.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:16 | 5584685 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Only 5%? I was feeling more like 8%. Oh well I guess the gubmint did not want to put out any phoney numbers.

Being as how they are so honest and all!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:18 | 5584695 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I revised my personal consumption too....I did not eat that 3rd slice of deep dish pizza last nite.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:33 | 5584764 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

I took a different tack.  I did eat that 3rd slice, but classified it as Q1 2015 consumption.  I did have to pull it forward to eat it, after all.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:20 | 5584697 forwardho
forwardho's picture

The US has officially reached pairity with the Chinese.

The numbers are now only worth their propaganda value.

"Sunshine and lolipops forever!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:19 | 5584700 Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

Q3 GDP of 5% reminds me of the Zen philosopher, Basho, who once wrote, 'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. A donut with no hole, is a Danish.' He was a funny guy. 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:51 | 5584852 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

It reminds me of this one

 

Yanguan said, bring me the rhinoceros fan.

 

The monk said, the rhinoceros fan is broken.

 

Yanguan said, then bring me the rhinoceros.

 

Another monk stepped up and wrote 'rhinoceros' in the sand.

 

 

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:22 | 5584711 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

'Fed Tightening'. Bwahaaaaaa !

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:37 | 5584786 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

That is pretty funny.  The idea that Wall Street will allow the free-money tsunami to end for them before monkeys fly out of my ass is ludicrous.

Once the debasing of the coinage begins, it never ends willingly.  Eventually the lower orders figure out they're being paid in painted lead and resort to violence, but until such time, it's rainbows and skittles for everyone.  Or at least for insolvent finance corporations busy racking up more notional risk exposure than there ever has been money in the history of the world.  As long as they stay insolvent, we can't stop bailing them out, right?  And none of this debt is going to get paid ever, and certainly not if interest rates even approach the official, not to mention real, rate of inflation.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:25 | 5584720 falak pema
falak pema's picture

5% and the cows can come home singing we have enuff milk for the coming decades. 

We do live in an ethereal world. Its all virtue et al.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:25 | 5584726 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

"The numbers have been waterboarded and they have given up"

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:24 | 5584728 A_latvian
A_latvian's picture

I don't get it.  Every economic indicator shows a slowing of growth.  Where is this optimism coming from?  Is it simply HFT fodder in the form of government numbers because Obama wants to keep the market inflated just a little while longer, so he can blame the crash on his successor?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:30 | 5584748 TheBird
TheBird's picture

Y/Y change was 2.7% and deflator appears to be 1.4%. Either the data is not yet available on the bea.gov site or they have eliminated publishing non s/a tables.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:30 | 5584752 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Best thing about ZH is the great comments.  Tooooo funny!  I am laughing so hard.   Thank you all.  

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:32 | 5584757 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Best thing about ZH is the great comments.  Tooooo funny!  I am laughing so hard.   Thank you all.  

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:55 | 5584863 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

Any contention that QE has an exogenous affect on long term trends is easily refutable...

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dont-get-ruined-by-these-10-popular-i...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 10:57 | 5584876 Balvan
Balvan's picture

Where is the doom and gloom ZH has been preaching all the time?

Gold bugs and doomsayers must feel really stupid right now.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:23 | 5584981 fuu
fuu's picture

Dude we are getting a huge sale right now. Why the fuck would we be feeling stupid?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:32 | 5585017 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

5% ?!

 

They're nuts !!

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 11:48 | 5585071 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Wow, you can't make this shit up .... oh wait ..

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 12:15 | 5585181 Conax
Conax's picture

Ok ok, I bought some refer, doritos and a bag of walmart socks.

Totally fudged the reading.  My bad.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 19:10 | 5586435 honestann
honestann's picture

Ye 'ol "lies, damn lies, and statistics".  But that's not all.  GDP itself is utter nonsense.  Part of GDP is destruction, part of GDP is production.  So the liars can boost what they call GDP simply by causing more destruction.  How nice!

Seriously, Tylers.  Maybe you should make news by refusing to put ANY government or central bank generated or inspired statistics into ZH.  After all, it is 100% propaganda, layered on top of completely bogus assumptions and measures (like GDP for instance).

Given the world economy is headed down the tubes big time now, expect the degree of lies, insanity and Orwellian reverse-speak to rocket off chart in months to come.

2015 sure looks like a doozie in the making!

PS:  Now that the federal reserve predators fully understands they've been destroying the economy with their actions (maybe they looked at Japan for hints), now they and their co-conspirator government predators appear to have decided to attempt to manipulate the economy ENTIRELY with psyops... by having their co-conspirator mainstream media predators repeat endlessly how the economy is absolutely booming (as it actually spirals down the toilet).  2015, the year of "full Orwell".

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 20:08 | 5586664 Prober
Prober's picture

"Ye 'ol "lies, damn lies, and statistics"

Reminds me of my Indian statistics professor, looked exactly like Ghandi, used to say, with heavy Hindi accent:

Q: "How is statistics like a bikini ?"

A: "What it reveals is interesting, but what it conceals is critical."

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