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Fed Tightening On Deck After Q3 GDP Soars To 5% On Revisions, Highest Since 2003
And just like that Q3 GDP, the one for the quarter ended Sept.30, was revised from 3.9% (which in turn was revised higher from 3.5%) to a mindblowing 5% - the highest print since Q3 2003 when GDP rose by 6.9%. This was above the highest Wall Street forecast of 4.7%, higher even than Joe Lavorgna's. The drivers: unprecedented revisions to Personal Consumption which supposedly rose by 3.2% in Q3 as opposed to the 2.2% prior reported, and 2.5% expected. Consumption accounted for 2.21% of the final 5.0% GDP print: this was the highest since Q4 2010 when it rose 2.8%. In fact, everything was revised higher: fixed investment rose 1.21% compared to the 0.97% reported previously; private inventories were virtually unchanged after allegedly subtracting 0.6% from growth in the original Q3 GDP estimate; net trade was unchanged adding 0.77% to GDP and finally the government boosted GDP a little as well, contributing 0.8%.
In other words, it is all downhill from here, as the subprime fueled boom in consumer spending in the late summer will certainly not be repeated any time soon, Q4 capex is crashing (as the durables report just confirmed), and inventory restocking took place far earlier than expected, meaning expectations of a low 2% pring for Q4 GDP will now have to be revised lower as consumption was pulled aggressively into the present.
GDP breakdown by component:
And a longer-term view of GDP:
After this report if there was any doubt if the trapped Fed will hike rates in April, it is now gone, unless of course, the market "crashes" by a whopping 5% between now and then and pull the Bullards out of the woodwork once again.
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This rocket ride never ends! It sure feels
And the Lord said: "Let them have hockey sticks" and the heavens did open and rain down hockey sticks upon the central planning masters
Wait, wait! Is there still time for me to revise my income for the year?
Look, we might as well all go home and give up. Reality has lost all relevance, and this proves it is getting worse. We might as well surrender and start drinking heavily.
When you have full control of the printing press, you can goal seek any number you want. Or just out and out lie.
MMMmmmm....that was a tasty crop report, now wasn't it?
Good news is bad news is bad news is good news is good news is bad news which makes good news being bad news when bad news means good news unless good news means more good news unless good news is bad for bad news until bad news trumps good news but good news is still good news even though that means that bad news....
None of this makes any sense given the down trends we have been watching. What source is the primary contributor to this GDP? Are they doing some positive economic credit to GDP for each new illegal flagged into the country? Or is it simply the wealth generation multiplier from the stock market? The government would not generate and publicize these numbers unless it was for purposes of influence. To create an excuse for the next big thing.
"What source is the primary contributor to this GDP? "
Healthcare and government spending?
Defense spending rose 16%.
So government spending...
dont forget 'synthetic debt'.....
"The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE (personal consumption expenditures), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government
spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased."
Cue the Zamboni's
OMFG!!! "Let them have hockey sticks..." I haven't laughed so hard in a MONTH!!!! WOW!
As long as one licks the blotter paper and smokes the doob, the ride will keep going.
As for the GDP print, methinks they need to remove the weather coefficient from the equation.
A nice little preview of the data misses we are going to get next month
GDP isnt inflation corrected..... food prices went up GDP went up...
No shit. I can't find a chunk of corned beef for less than $20, and that's a puny one that won't give any leftovers. The 1.5 qt. "half-gallon" of ice cream was about $4.00 at the store yesterday. Even a bag of bread flour was $4.50.
Think I'll buy an iPad on Dec. 26 and eat that instead.
i sell ipod classic on ebay, go check.
It's real GDP, not nominal.
ergo why they lie about inflation and change its calculation regularly.
The increase in current dollars was 6.4%.
If oil prices keep dropping, watch the BLS re-insert energy back into the CPI-U.
the new GDP calculation seems to be working perfectly.
yep. they finally realized: "hey, if we're just making this shit up anyways, why not make it look really good?"
But they are doing it for us. A little Christmas gift of optimism, consumer confidence before the commercial season has passed.
The Titanic has stopped its slide beneath the waves. Instead we find ourselves grounded far out at sea...and guess what, no help is coming. The upper decks are still secure and dry but those below decks have already succumbed. Instead of a quick cold death we are left to a slow process of delusion of being saved, internal fighting and ultimately starvation and cannibalism.
I got that Christmas spirit going on! Zombie Christmas!
And no one remembers or even mentions it. Apparently the best way to boost GDP is to change the calculation. It's the key to growth.
Just like they changed the way inflation is calculated.
It's this:
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1998-12-12/
---> negative is positive ***
---> positive is positive
*** hint = this vote is rigged, sponsored by the fed and gdp hooker blows boosted
Clearly the creators of this farce are Johnny Mercer fans" You gotta accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative."
Does anyone believe that GDP grew by 5%? Or inflation was understated by 3% to 5% boosting the GDP by 3% to 5%?
Well, the third quarter was very good for my biz.
The fourth however, went straight into the shitter.
Maybe BLS can hedonisically adjust the year to five quarters.
They do adjust everything else.
Was it good because fundamentals were great, or did you do like my firm did....pulled ahead 4th qtr sales into 3rd qtr, inventories fell, plan is to rebuild inventories to maximum levels in 4thqtr but there will not be normal sales (because it was pulled ahead). I think everyone senses doom, even businesses. The goal is now to 'prepare' your business for another recessionary hit....hopefully the wise will head the warnings and take approriate steps...
3Q price deflator was 1.4% in this estimate, unchanged from the second estimate, and down from 2% in 2Q.
Lies, lies, lies, yea...
GDP 5% + Unemployment 5.8% = ZIRP??
I think the appropriate phrase is "It's different this time."
Not for much longer.
lmfao
Blah Blah Blah..... GDP just measure the rate that we blow thru the borrowed money anyways. There is no organic growth anymore.
Does that mean the green shoots are dead?
Q3 GDP highest in 11 years
With 46 million still receiving food stamps...compared with 33 million in 2008 and 25 million in 2004.
It's a PONZ-I-CON-OMY
Blow off top ?
(Energizer) Tesla Bunny !
FED up ... rates ?
Inflation - Deflation = Stagflation.
unemployment + EBT = playstation
Who buys durable goods any more?
I think the question is, where are the durable goods?
Paper products...tissue thin.
Where's the meat ?
That's the problem, or part of how they are boasting GDP. Everything is build NOT to last. It's a good way to mask inflation. If something lasts half as long, it really means it costs twice as much.
At the Dept. of Defense.
Wow GREAT numbers...the economy is hitting on all cylinders....as long as you're in DC or NY
Bullshit.
And if you like your Bullshit, you can keep your bullshit.
And we Bullshitted some folks.
I guess CNBC cheerleaders and Aunti Yellen were correct...
TO think I missed the boat...
Its all ZH fault, time to file a law suit...
disclaimer: sarc
So why aren't they raising rates?
Haha - that's a good one. Never gonna get tired of hearing that little gem. Raise rates? Ah, kids these days...
They will. They're being "patient".
mr valentine (yellen) has set the price
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli
Wrongo-that quote is from Mark Twain not Benjamin Disreali
Thanks. On further review it apears we're both incorrect with respect to the quote's origin.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics.html
http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm
http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies3.gif
lol love to visit the world of the paranoid every now and then -
the gewbermant reports sales (GDP) were up, so now the gewberment can buy MOAR STAWKS
buy yellen buy, you glutinous foul pig
GDP = Grossly Defrauded Picture
2007 all over again
Has that feel.
Time to batten down the hatches, and pull in any A/Rs now.
The propaganda ministry is swinging for the fences.
Yanno... there comes a point when ya just 'effin' run out of words to describe the BS!!!!
Indeed. Your jaw drops and your eye glaze with that WTF look.
It's a Winston Smith moment.
And despite the increase in GDP, Corporate Profits fell from one year ago by 6.26% year over year.
We cannot afford growth of this nature much longer.
We'll make it up in volume.
LOL!!!! Dying on that one. So funny. THX!!!
Wow, does anyone believe these numbers, day after day. Are people that stupid?
YES!
So lets see..... GDP value for Q3 was $284B... Govt debt increased by $422B, personal debt increased by $51B and Corp debt increased by $110B.... Thus it takes $583B of debt to generate $284 B of GDP growth.... Yea that is sustainable....
Pretty easy to grow at 5% when you ignore 8% worth of inflation!
Meanwhile, in the real world...
All this Fed-Asserted 'GDP-Growth' (a.k.a. Prosperity) has resulted in...
...trade contraction during the Christmas season?????
What is that smell? Something in that data stinks!
bla, bla, bla
"Q3 GDP Soars To 5%"
... measure the GDP in Gold Ounces, then we'll see how much Inflation added to the GDP.
If the Fed needs to back off its monetary manipulations -- and it does for reasons which have nothing to do with the performance of the economy -- the economic numbers will reflect the wisdom of backing off and the need to do so.
That's what economic numbers are for, duh...
Exactly! That the numbers are a lie is obvious. The real question is - why are they lying? What do they hope to achieve? It would seem that for some reason, because of indicators we know nothing about (concerning the failing health of the petrodollar?), the Fed urgently needs to tighten its policy and actually raise interest rates - or at the very least, to keep the narrative of an imminent rate rise alive. So they have to create an alibi for doing so. And the more blatant the lie, the more desperate the need.
Obama and his Federal Reserve will keep the market inflated with phony economic numbers and jobs reports until somewhere around October of 2016. Then the bottom will fall out, liberals will blame the banks, and the fascist Democrats will be swept into power again. All according to plan.
We are all pawns.
Only 5%? I was feeling more like 8%. Oh well I guess the gubmint did not want to put out any phoney numbers.
Being as how they are so honest and all!
I revised my personal consumption too....I did not eat that 3rd slice of deep dish pizza last nite.
I took a different tack. I did eat that 3rd slice, but classified it as Q1 2015 consumption. I did have to pull it forward to eat it, after all.
The US has officially reached pairity with the Chinese.
The numbers are now only worth their propaganda value.
"Sunshine and lolipops forever!
Q3 GDP of 5% reminds me of the Zen philosopher, Basho, who once wrote, 'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. A donut with no hole, is a Danish.' He was a funny guy.
It reminds me of this one
Yanguan said, bring me the rhinoceros fan.
The monk said, the rhinoceros fan is broken.
Yanguan said, then bring me the rhinoceros.
Another monk stepped up and wrote 'rhinoceros' in the sand.
'Fed Tightening'. Bwahaaaaaa !
That is pretty funny. The idea that Wall Street will allow the free-money tsunami to end for them before monkeys fly out of my ass is ludicrous.
Once the debasing of the coinage begins, it never ends willingly. Eventually the lower orders figure out they're being paid in painted lead and resort to violence, but until such time, it's rainbows and skittles for everyone. Or at least for insolvent finance corporations busy racking up more notional risk exposure than there ever has been money in the history of the world. As long as they stay insolvent, we can't stop bailing them out, right? And none of this debt is going to get paid ever, and certainly not if interest rates even approach the official, not to mention real, rate of inflation.
5% and the cows can come home singing we have enuff milk for the coming decades.
We do live in an ethereal world. Its all virtue et al.
"The numbers have been waterboarded and they have given up"
I don't get it. Every economic indicator shows a slowing of growth. Where is this optimism coming from? Is it simply HFT fodder in the form of government numbers because Obama wants to keep the market inflated just a little while longer, so he can blame the crash on his successor?
Y/Y change was 2.7% and deflator appears to be 1.4%. Either the data is not yet available on the bea.gov site or they have eliminated publishing non s/a tables.
Best thing about ZH is the great comments. Tooooo funny! I am laughing so hard. Thank you all.
Best thing about ZH is the great comments. Tooooo funny! I am laughing so hard. Thank you all.
Any contention that QE has an exogenous affect on long term trends is easily refutable...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dont-get-ruined-by-these-10-popular-i...
Where is the doom and gloom ZH has been preaching all the time?
Gold bugs and doomsayers must feel really stupid right now.
Dude we are getting a huge sale right now. Why the fuck would we be feeling stupid?
5% ?!
They're nuts !!
Wow, you can't make this shit up .... oh wait ..
Ok ok, I bought some refer, doritos and a bag of walmart socks.
Totally fudged the reading. My bad.
Ye 'ol "lies, damn lies, and statistics". But that's not all. GDP itself is utter nonsense. Part of GDP is destruction, part of GDP is production. So the liars can boost what they call GDP simply by causing more destruction. How nice!
Seriously, Tylers. Maybe you should make news by refusing to put ANY government or central bank generated or inspired statistics into ZH. After all, it is 100% propaganda, layered on top of completely bogus assumptions and measures (like GDP for instance).
Given the world economy is headed down the tubes big time now, expect the degree of lies, insanity and Orwellian reverse-speak to rocket off chart in months to come.
2015 sure looks like a doozie in the making!
PS: Now that the federal reserve predators fully understands they've been destroying the economy with their actions (maybe they looked at Japan for hints), now they and their co-conspirator government predators appear to have decided to attempt to manipulate the economy ENTIRELY with psyops... by having their co-conspirator mainstream media predators repeat endlessly how the economy is absolutely booming (as it actually spirals down the toilet). 2015, the year of "full Orwell".
"Ye 'ol "lies, damn lies, and statistics"
Reminds me of my Indian statistics professor, looked exactly like Ghandi, used to say, with heavy Hindi accent:
Q: "How is statistics like a bikini ?"
A: "What it reveals is interesting, but what it conceals is critical."