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"Greatest Fools" Or "Smartest Men In The Room"?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here are 2 charts that might give some pause for thought as investors ponder today's exuberance in stocks over the backward-looking GDP extravaganza thanks to surging healthcare costs... as opposed to expectations (the 'thing' stocks are supposed to discount) about future growth...

 

US Stocks are massively outperforming the rest of the world this year...

 

So why are expectations for GDP growth in the US now lower than the World...?

 

Don't try to explain... just BTFD and suck it up - what could go wrong?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

h/t @M_McDonough

 

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Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:02 | 5585775 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

that bottom chart hasn't had the BEA adjustments applied to it yet

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:21 | 5585827 summerof71
summerof71's picture

Bernank says, only you can prevent deflation and QE too! (Sung to the tune of Smokey the Bear)

Consumers are literally stampeding the local walmarts to get that price-match end of year coupon busting gift card ravaging deal on their 3rd TV and sixth PC.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:07 | 5585786 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So I suppose a monthly check for $497 that goes to a health insurance company for essentially nothing is considered a "unit of production"?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:11 | 5585793 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yes.  And you obviously miss the greater good that the government is HELPING you spend all your money so that we can grow the economy for everyone.  You don't actually want to keep that money for yourself do you, you greedy bastard?  WE know what's best for you so we are going to be making your decisions for you from now on.

- BHO

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:12 | 5585796 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

+100

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:18 | 5585813 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

So I suppose a monthly check for $497 that goes to a health insurance company for essentially nothing is considered a "unit of production"?

It is not like you would want to do something REALLY productive with that money? The Obamanauts would like their easy cut.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:23 | 5585839 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

It's for the common good.

- hillary

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:38 | 5585890 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"It take a village to spend your money" - Hillary Clinton

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:33 | 5585868 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Okay, but just not at the expense of my health.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 21:47 | 5586907 jcaz
jcaz's picture

No, you gotta die earlier, dude-  that's how we'll fix social security....

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 22:10 | 5586947 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Does anyone know the average number of years collecting SS it requires to break even? I figured it would take me nine or ten years, but that's in nominal terms, not the reqcquisition of purchasing power. So I just have to make it to 74 or 75 and then it's all gravy. Assuming, that is, that the death panels don't get me first.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 16:05 | 5585960 scythian empire
scythian empire's picture

 You don't actually want to keep that money for yourself do you, 

 

See, the thing about insurance -  especially for those who aren't currently paying into the system - is that it makes them pay something and gives them bargaining power, which lowers the cost.  This would actually increase the amount of money in YOUR pocket, if you had a job.  

Everything is not a conspiracy.  You are not right just because you are indignant.  That actually makes you a baby.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 16:05 | 5585961 scythian empire
scythian empire's picture

 You don't actually want to keep that money for yourself do you, 

 

See, the thing about insurance -  especially for those who aren't currently paying into the system - is that it makes them pay something and gives them bargaining power, which lowers the cost.  This would actually increase the amount of money in YOUR pocket, if you had a job.  

Everything is not a conspiracy.  You are not right just because you are indignant.  That actually makes you a baby.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 22:06 | 5586941 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

WE know what's best for you...Just do what they tell you. Consider it sense, and not surrender. And never think that you will ever be able to think for yourself again.

(Apologies and thanks to the lyricist who wrote "Mr. Blue", as sung by Clear Light)

 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:12 | 5585797 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Your producing a payment and that's close enough for government work...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:15 | 5585805 Osmium
Osmium's picture

If you like your $4000 deductible, you can keep your $4000 deductible.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:24 | 5585846 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Sick, no wonder we are poisoning our children with useless vaccinations such as the flu vaccine...its productive to have sick children.

Hitler would be proud of these progressive cunts.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 22:15 | 5586955 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Not to mention all the pesticides in the environment, the estrogen-like chenicals that affect boys adversely, etc. But it's OK, because the DOW is >18K and the GDP is in overdrive.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:25 | 5585848 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I plan to pay the tax penalty, way cheaper than even the lowest healthcare plans.  $500 per month with a $5K deductible?  No thanks.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:08 | 5585790 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

LIFE SUPPORT / SMOKING MIRRORS BITCHEZ


The days of "MOAR" are numbered
It's a big club and you ain't in it BITCHEZ

 
Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:09 | 5585791 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The fed is the market. Any ZH reader can name those dips and rips by the fed douchebag that caused them.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:11 | 5585795 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

OT: Tylers strangely silent on the subject of USD/CNY, since this piece in Nov: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-24/currency-wars-reignite-yuan-tum....

What's up with that?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:20 | 5585824 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The Chinese currency is a pegged currency..it is exactly where the Chinese want it to be. It is not like some market forces have acted upon it.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:14 | 5585802 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

historical perspective

 

Dow hit high october 2007 ... recession commenced december 2007

 

and that was before massive central bank intervention

 

really don't see market breaking till onset of next recession 

 

sticking with my US recession start no later than Q1 2015

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:45 | 5585901 valley chick
valley chick's picture

However we have already been in a recession and some will even say a depression and see more of a black swan event to take this mother load down. I am trying to be optimistic and hope by Q3 2015.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:17 | 5585814 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Our government liars are the BEST government liars!!! USA USA!!!

No one can cook the GDP books like our guys can...

impute my farts as 'shale oil/nat gas'...(that is only a suggestion, they are not actually doing that yet).

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:19 | 5585816 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

sorry but subject change....

"Kiev’s latest move to become a NATO ally is counterproductive and gives rise to false hope for resolving its political crisis, Moscow said. The Ukrainian parliament voted to repeal a law that upheld the country’s non-participation in military blocks.

The move on Tuesday is a step towards becoming a member of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization, a goal the post-coup authorities in Kiev have made a key point of their foreign policies. Kiev says that Russia is the cause of the civil war that led to eastern parts of the country rebelling against the central government and hopes that NATO’s military might will help resolve the situation.

“This is counterproductive. It only escalates the confrontation and creates the illusion that the internal national crisis in Ukraine can be solved through adoption of laws like that,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on the new legislation."

http://rt.com/news/217047-ukraine-nato-membership-russia/

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:18 | 5585818 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

the story for today imo was durable goods orders ... expected +3.1% ... actual -0.7%

 

strip out transportation ... expected +1.3% ... actual -0.4%

 

core capital goods orders negative 3 months in a row

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWORDER

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:18 | 5585821 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Merry Christmas
Rudolph - Silver & Gold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CirrRY_6aaU (1:39) 

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:27 | 5585851 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

more on core capital goods orders

 

slightly negative but rounded to 0.0%

 

BUT

 

that was because prior month was revised from -1.3% to -1.9%

 

if no (downward) revision to prior ... this months core capital goods orders ... -0.4%

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:30 | 5585862 CHX
CHX's picture

The various heads of the eccles bldg, PPT et al at work to make sure their owners get big end year boners. Nothing to see here, move along.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:38 | 5585882 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Just hit the recline button on your Lay-Z-Boy. Drift off into slumber, sweet rainbow colored dreams as the un-fed guides us to the next stop, DOW 19,000.

With a few stops along the way to 36,000. A beautiful pain free ride to the top!

It's all very bullshitish.

Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 15:57 | 5585932 BlueHen1990
BlueHen1990's picture

Years from now the greatest lasting damage from this era of central bank intervention may not even be the structural dislocations to the economy, but the reuslting stigmas and false impressions so many Americans will hold about "capitalism" and "markets". It has completed muddled what actual "free markets" are to the average person, and also twisted up so much of the logic and measures that used to provide effective financial analysis. They have upended the entire financial picture for the benefit of the short-term and for impressive stock index records.

 

Fundamentals be damned...

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 16:13 | 5585978 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Don't sweat it Tyler, Kevin's got our backs (and, failing that, Bullard does and, failing that, Janet does).

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 17:44 | 5586220 dumbStruck
dumbStruck's picture

The divergence between world stocks and U.S. Stocks seems to have begun around May/June. Is there some reason for that ?

Tue, 12/23/2014 - 22:49 | 5587021 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

What goes up must come down.

Lets see the Fed beat physics!

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