The Housing Recovery Remains Cancelled Due To 6 Months Of Downward Revisions

Tyler Durden's picture

Following last month's surge to record high home prices, it is perhaps no surprise that for the 6th month in a row, home prices have been revised lower. New Home Sales printed 438k, down from prior revised lower 445k and missing expectations of a surge to 460k... missing for 8 of the last 10 months. However, the key focus should be on the epic revisions of the (by now useless) home sales. For the period May - November, the initial new home sales prints amount to 2.779MM houses. Post revision, the number plunges by 22% to 2.168K. There goes the housing pillar of recovery (let's hope economists are wrong and rates don't rise next year eh?)

 

Spot the recovery...

 

8th miss in 10 months..

 

As average home prices plunge...

 

And revisions smash the recovery meme...

 

Revisions, simply put, slash 22% off the previously released home sales data!!!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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NoDebt's picture

22% revisions are the new normal.  That they were in a downward direction means that you can knock another 22% off of them before you even approach the truth.

nuclearsquid's picture

Unloaded my money pit last month thank god, and now I am renting.  The peace of mind is priceless. I did the math; for every dollar I would 'earn' in principal over the next ten years, I would have to put $1.60 into renovations, just to keep it 'move-in-ready.'  As a person who keeps close tabs on local real estate trends (realtors in the family), I can tell you anecdotally that for my area, in a very nice suburb of NYC, more and more houses are selling 'as is.'  

localsavage's picture

I laugh at the fact that the realtors want you to remodel your house before you sell it to make their life easy.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

At some point it no longer matters how much you chrome plate a turd, it's still going in the toilet...

junction's picture

The USA is an economic basket case, with the job situation so bad now that recent college graduates can spend years looking for a job with wages high enough to pay off their student debt. New home sales used to come from those college graduates starting families but no more.  As the looters in Washington D.C. continue to squander trillions on endless wars for the oil cartel and to tax the middle class into pauperdom, all Congress does is pass a law allowing for underfunded retirement plans to cut their benefits.  Congress's goal, which Bill Gates and the New World Order vociferously support, is to eliminate all defined pension plans and job security rights (such as tenure) from the American marketplace.  That goal is nearing completion, with the help of crooks like Senators Harry Reed and Charles Schumer (Schumer just got his incompetent wife another high paying job, this time at the New York Public Library).    

The Daily Caller (22Dec2014) A provision in the recently passed spending bill will allow some underfunded multi-employer pension plans to cut benefits for current retirees.

“The move was the result of an alarm from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) that multi-employer plans covering more than 1 million participants are substantially underfunded and, without legislative changes, will probably fail,” Washington Post business columnist Michelle Singletary wrote.

Under the law, “plans that estimate they won’t have enough money to pay 100 percent of benefits within 15 or 20 years can cut benefits,” but not for retirees who are 80 or older, or those who are on disability. Cuts would also be phased in gradually, so retirees between the ages of 75 and 79 would face smaller cuts than those under 75.

maskone909's picture

the fed will backstop housing soon by requiring firms to hold a, lets say, a 10% stake in real estate.

auntiesocial's picture

in some countries, being wrong by 20% could probably get you hanged. in Ammmerikkka, you get a promotion!

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

A good arguement for bringing back public hangings...

Dr. Engali's picture

Business is so "good" that we have heavy consolidation of realtors going on in our area. Nobody can make any money.

NoDebt's picture

I'm glad you said it.  I have some clients who are real estate agents and they're saying the same thing to me as recently as last week.  I live in the northeast and all real estate is local, of course, but even these revised-downward numbers sound like horseshit to me.

847328_3527's picture

The young attractive first grade teacher-turned-realtor down the street who wears tiny tight mini skirts as a marketing tool [and it works!] is considering returning to teaching the little people to pay for her new BMW, new house, new iStuff, etc. She said 2014 she made less then $45k and sales are zilch for the past four months.

 

As you say, all RE is local but outside of Cali [where voracious Mainlanders still grab anything with four walls]  the downturn is visible esp in the formerly robust O&G states.

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Tell her that there is a huge upturn in your pants and that you will give her $100 to make it pop. It's what they used to call "thangs fo thangs" when I was young.

Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

LUVIT-LUVIT-LUVIT.    Can we graph that on a static chart?   Upward sloping, from bottom left to upper right??  Then, just when peak pressure occurs, we have an inverted v-shaped bust.    Then, pump er up again!

Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

LUVIT-LUVIT-LUVIT.    Can we graph that on a static chart?   Upward sloping, from bottom left to upper right??  Then, just when peak pressure occurs, we have an inverted v-shaped bust.    Then, pump er up again!

Dr. Engali's picture

Some of the local realtors are doing side work, like carpentry or clean outs to pick up extra fiat. My wife runs one of the larger offices in town and they just merged with two other offices in order to reduce costs, otherwise all three would die off.

DerdyBulls's picture

She does? Then she’d know the traditional brokerage model is dying a fast death. Over 9 out of 10 agents leave after 12 months. The overhead burden is bullshit imagery. It’s a revolving door 60% skimming operation. The real estate agent doesn’t need the shiny things brokers put in place to attract them. I’ve owned 3 brokerages. I was sickened by the carnage and disillusionment the franchisor set-up caused wellmeaning people who came into my office, spent $40K to get started and walk away after a few transactions because they couldn’t afford the frickin fees. My agents rarely if ever signed contracts or met with clients in the office. Consolidation? I’m glad. Most residential realty brokers just suck. Thank god for their nemesis, the internet. Bloodsuckers. 

DerdyBulls's picture

Oh, and NAR is a parasitic Keynesian organism. Never trust their stats. 

Luckhasit's picture

realtors ha, who needs them.  Construction hasn't stopped in my area and i'm in rural USA.  Go to the cities and it's never stopped there either. 

Who needs to sell buildings, houses and anchor store space (lots of that too).

papaswamp's picture

So if home prices are revised lower...were home values revised lower too? Thus household 'wealth' (histerical laughter) must also be revised lower.

1stepcloser's picture

but Refrig Box sales are exploding

NoDebt's picture

Storing meat and other perishables for the winter.  Buy in bulk and store it.

Oh, you meant LIVING IN a refrigerator box.  Yeah, that too.

847328_3527's picture

The Housing Bubble is the next thing to crumble as hundreds of thousands of O&G peeples [and related industries] are layed off for a painfully long time.

 

Otherwise, I'm very Bullish with this Robust rekovery where portions of the S&P [FB, NFLX, etc] hit new highs every hour [as oil, gas, retail, miners, equiment supliers, etc] plunge.

 

It's almost ... ParadoxicaL !

SillyWabbits's picture

When Zillow bought Trulia; the die was cast.

NoVa's picture

Agreed.

Tech improvements will take out alot of RE agents, not all, but a majority over the next 5 to 10 years.  

Hopefully, the transaction costs will also reduce - 6% for list/buy side representation to a flat fee -  RE industry is going to be "Ubber'd" tm

NoVa

Al Huxley's picture

At least GDP is soaring, that should make up for the failing real estate market.

Squid Viscous's picture

Larry Yun and NAR = lying cocksuckers

skipjack's picture

On the other side of the coin, I just bought my retirement homestead in FL for pennies on the fiatsco and it's already rented out for the next 5 years until I'm actually planning on going Galt. All RE is local, and you must know your market. :)

golden raccoon's picture

Not even close guys!  The number goes from 2779 to 2614, a decline of 5.8%, as you forgot to add October's revised number to your numerator.  Do any of the folks who comment on these pieces critically think about what they are reading?

Arnold's picture

Revised number: 2614/2779=0.788 actually 21.2% decline.

Seriously the only thing you can trust about those numbers are that they are still lying to you.

Is that critical enough or should I get really rough on the faceless hoard that pumps this stuff to their own benefit.

golden raccoon's picture

Hey Arnold, get a new calculator!  2614/2779 = 0.9406

Arnold's picture

yup, fat finger.

2614 or 2164 what difference does it make/ sarc.

ChargingHandle's picture

what the f*** man. Are you telling me that one in four home actually never sold? Is this some kind of f****** joke?

Crazy Canuck's picture

I guess they stopped counting doll and dog houses

I Write Code's picture

I think if you draw an inflation line on that average home price graph, you'll see the moving average and the inflation line are just about the same on the timeframe shown, 2000 through 2014.

Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Hit the bid on my place a few months ago....!!  Was only keeping some skin in the game to play the fed dance.  The music is about to stop (if it hasn't already)....