This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Saxo Bank CIO:"Writing Off Russia Would Be Unwise"
Submitted by Steen Jakobsen, CIO & Chief Economist, Saxobank, via TradingFloor.com,
- Russia's failure to reform made crisis inevitable
- Ukraine détente imperative for Russian revival
- Writing off Russia would be unwise
Russia’s years of neglecting to invest and reform pointed to an inevitable crisis. In 2014, that crisis came on two fronts, first in the confrontation over Ukraine from early this year and the resulting sanctions, and then followed by the incredible collapse in oil prices over the last few months.
Russia and its citizens have been here before and know the drill. Everything looks terrible at the moment, but as the old saying goes, times of crisis are also times of maximum opportunity to chart a new course.
So the positive spin from all of this is that we could see a new start from Russia in 2015. But a vital precondition for that new start is a definitive solution to the Ukraine problem that firmly lays to rest the political and financial standoff with Europe and the US.
Without full integration in the global economy, any comeback faces impossible odds. Capital will simply not flow in and out of the country until sanctions have been lifted, and autarky (self-sufficiency) is not an option.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s suggested solution to Ukraine remains the most plausible outcome: make Ukraine a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. At his end of year speech to the Russian press and nation, Putin called the NATO front across Europe a “Berlin Wall”. Allowing Ukraine to remain in the Russian sphere of influence would at least allow a broader zone of Belarus and Ukraine to separate Russia proper from NATO countries.
Kissinger's buffer-zone idea for Ukraine may be the best solution. Photo: Johannes Simon
As I write this, the European Union wants stronger verbal support of Ukraine from Putin, who is not backing down. But let’s give the process and the crisis another three or four months and both Russia and Europe will want to work more constructively toward a solution.
The macro risks remain very high if some of the recent dynamics spin out of control. But let’s hope that Christmas become a time of looking forward and of thinking practically instead of seeking confrontation.
I remain a long term bull of Russia. It may be naïve right now considering President Putin’s speech on Thursday but Russia has the resources and the people to be a great nation, just not with its present policy and economic focus, especially amid a huge external stand-off and sanctions. Hopefully, this crisis produces a positive mandate for change and a new and more balanced path forward. In other words, let’s hope that things have already become so bad that the only way is up. If that’s the way things turn out, Russia could be 2015’s biggest positive surprise.
Photo: Kremlin Picture Office
»
- 14915 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The gas is his last bit of steady cash flow and would push Russia's economy deeper into the hole the USSR was in.
At this point it is fair to presuppose that the Russian military will occupy vast extensions of Ukraine and destroy that country's armed forces as soon as Putin orders such action.
War is on
Ukraine abolishes non-aligned status
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/europe/europe/2014-12/23/c_133874446.h...
Interesting but I believe this would be a mistake.
To do this would isolate Russia further and make it more difficult to recover in the near term.
While I would not recommend this action Putin should wait until he recovers some of his economy to help support such action.
Still short on Putin's moves to date - he is too impatient in a patient world.
Yeah, you wouldn't want to be isolated from the war mongering, morally bankrupt debt bro's in the west. Such a valuable relationship
Success in this arena requires patience.
A smart leader will know when to heal and when to attack and never let your opponent control your decisions.
Okay Mike, just keep your head on while ur bein patient.
OK - Fuck You 'Mike'
Pretty impatient for a guy who advises patience.
Two common things which make a person wonder what the f' they just did; alcohol and anger
Both involve action being taken without Brain engaging in thinking!
The Chinese are offering Russia their full support.
http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768328
The Russians can just sell the European gas to the Chinese and Turkey. If the Europeans want the gas they will have to out bid them for it, both politically and finacially. One more than the other.
Why would Putin want to ?
Unless NATO tries to move in, it serves no pupose.
Predictions: 1. Ukraine will make noise to join NATO, and Russia will make noise.
2. Ukraine will join NATO, and Russia will make more noise. Lots of huffing & puffing, more war-readiness drills for show, but nothing else.
If Russia does not move in, take over Kiev, and install its own Puppet Regime (the way the US does everywhere is DOD, NSA and CYA goes), it is "fracked". Putin may not fall for an early and dumb "bait", but eventually he will be put into a position that is too late, and with even less attractive options... If he and China cannot succeed to bring down the Reserve status of the USD well before then.
If he holds back too much because China won't let him, and he is forced into China's waiting arms, then it is clear that he is simply trading one Tribe for another Tribe to control Russia.
dup
Sometimes I think the likes of Kissenger and his ilk will be around to plague this world forever.
Since when did "NATO" need a buffer State?
That thing is a defensive alliance.
I think Putin made a mistake by attacking Crimea....attacking Warsaw on the other hand...
This is a real question: Did Russia attack Crimea? I though they already had troops there and just kept them there after Crimea was annexed. One can argue about the nature of the annexation but as I recall there was no troop movement. Nuland alluded to Russian troops and made it sound like Putin invaded but I don't thiink that's what really happened....any offer a correction?
Yes they did. They sent in men in uniforms but took off their Russian flag and basically claimed that anyone can get those uniforms. Implying that the highly trained military force measured at close to 80k moving around Crimea at the time was an internal move by the Crimeans.
Russia annexed Crimea not only did they conquer it militarily but then held a bogus referendum.
After the olympics ended, Putin was rash to believe that it wasn't the people of Ukraine tired of Yuschenko but the West that created civil strife. His retaliation was Crimea, he screwed up. Ukraine has been working towards the EU for years now, at least everything West of Kyiv, maybe if Yuschenko built his fortress in Donetsk instead, we wouldnt have had this Global predicament.
"this Global predicament" is a contrivance nothing more -mthe only poeple who beleive it wasnt a US led coup - is you and those OTHER PEOPLE working for the usa covert operation in the Uk - USA creating mirrors and redundancy iin the MSM - Russia will be fine and the East Ulraine will secede
The USA has no ability to service the supply line in a major confrontation, the Uk Military isnt going to stand the test of time they are not committed, only the Asov Fascist battallions wil be there and all the firepower will be aimed on them not the Uk Military.
Putin has played Obama like a violin and he and China will win all the marbles
Omen....i see you still dream of fuckin Putin in the ass
"Russia qill be fine...Putin played Obama like a violin"
really? whose currency is urently in crisis? which leader has admitted that 2 years of suffering will be foisted on its itizens, while this leader takes care of freinds and lines his own ockets"
fuck you, America will reign supreme while larva like wallow in the putresence of your own vomit...you fucking douche bag cunt
better worry about your own country
Right, just like Russia getting downgraded to JUNK
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/12/24/russia-crisis-cenbank-measures-...
YESIREE THAT PUTIN CAT IS DOING WONDERFUL THINGS FOR RUSSIA...just ask the oligarchs and the elite
fact is anyone can get those uniforms that want
rest of your claims is crap
except west of Kiev, which is mostly pollacks. former Polish lands.
proven themselves stupid and sorry warriors/cannon fodder
given they were brainwashed for decades and lied to, but that is pollack historical experience.
these forest nazies on the wrong side of history.
Ukraine was about to gain from Russian help.
Outsiders made the stealings and depradations.
" I think Putin made a mistake by attacking Crimea... " ?!?!?!?!
I think you should do this for a while :
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...
Kissinger made a whole career on BUFFER ZONES and DETENTE.
Even though his proposal makes sense for Ukraine. It's the perfect face-saver for all sides: Ukes, Russia, EU, US, NATO.
Alas, Zionistas like Nuland and her Friends are too hot to trot for the Finish Line, to even consider sane and sensible options.
It's a stalling tactic. Nothing more.
Putin won't buy it. Smell of weakness is in the air now.
Putin will rope-dope to wear down, then.....
That greedy old war criminal and cunt just won't die. Proof that Satan is an entity that is real and has great powers. Keeping the focus of evil and murder alive is a sin against god, it only shows how powerful Satan still is in this world. The fucker just won't die.
Russia is the underdog in this race and has my bet for the new year.
You mean the which horse at the glue factory is fastest question?
At this rate, both Ukraine and Russia are screwed.
Russia needs a Game Changer, but they seems too "cautious" (i.e. scared) to create one that involves any genuine "In your face and up your arse" moves toward Obummer. Until they do, it's still the Golfer-in-Chief winning on points (by playing the Procedure game), over the "Barenaked Gentlamen" (playing pure defense).
When you have NO offense (that you are using), your Defense becomes less credible, since the two are never truly separable. But Putin has never had that bit explained to him.
Saxo CIO, because your investment bets will blow up. Ask the CEO and board of Directors on how Obama Sanctions are working.
Random question But does anyone know how I can get an account with SaxoBank as an American?
You're pretty much screwed unless you have a second (or third) nationality.
Even then most of the major banks are sharing your account info if you're resident here.
Most just won't open an account to avoid the paperwork.
Some of the small private banks will do it if you have a big enough balance.
Capital controls for the little guy, one step away from the full Monty.
So the guy basically says if Russia will become subserviant to the west they will be fine. Actually, I can think of nothing worse. Fuck You Neocons
Kissenger's solution is always the best for the oligarchy.
Henry Kissinger: Waiting for NWO is a sound clip of hearing you died during sleep. Fuck off cunt. He can fight for CDC Ebola cause, while getting kicked in the nuts for Pink slime food and Zombie resurrection. Looks as though you have lost canny manipulation of society.
Throbbing Gristle , his arm was her leg (live Factory Manchester 18 05 79)
Unwisdom is the 'american' way.
Germany has already lost over 300,000 jobs due to Russia's counter sanctions. Very Bullish fo them to fall on the daggar for us.
German car makers are beginning large layoffs. Baltic shipping, rail and trucking are about to lose tens of thousands of high paying jobs in ports and transport, as Russia is shifting 100% of it's energy and import/export traffic to Russia's domestic NW ports. Ports running at 60% capacity before the crisis, are now being geared up to run at 100%, cutting the three Baltic nations totally out. Russian firms are already hiring Russians to work in Ports, Rail and Trucking. The Baltics are NOT going to get anything from teh EU to replace the loss of their Port and transport traffic to and from RUssia, a nation of over 150 million people.
Ukraine is and has always been a part of the Russian economic system, before Maidan, nearly all trade was with Russia, nearly all exports went to Russia. The products are not wanted by the west, not wanted, not needed, and below EU standards. When Ukraine wakes up to the loss of Donbass, their only industrial center, and the loss of the entire Russian export market, plus the need to serivce IMF loans without any industry to earn FX.
How many ways can you say fucked?
Russia is in no way comparable to Ukraine.
Debt is 16 of GDP
they are 100% energy independent
they export vast amounts of energy for FX
they have large gold holdings
Russian FX reverves are between 400-500 billion dollars
Industry now has a huge domestic market with vast holes in it caused by rubel weakness and sanctions. This means markets are there waitning for workers and resources to be turned into consumer goods.
Large agricultural areas have been under utilized due to cheap and high quality food imports from subsidized EU farmers, who compete on price suing vast EU agricultural payments to EU farmers. With that gone, Russian Agri business has land, workers and open markets.
If this sounds like a nation that is fucked! Then you need to rethink.
And lets add their access via land to the largest economy on earth, China, and also direct land access to India. Both are on good trade relationships with Moscow. Both are ready, willing and able to expand trade as fast as possible to fill in the EU sanctions holes left by the USA demands on the EU.
If that sounds like Russia is isolated, then you need to buy a globe and look it over.
The EU would have you believe they represent Russia's only salvation. An EU that is terminal with Soviet Communist cancer, caused by the Brussels Communists who run the EU on Soviet principles.
Obama has been told he is an all powerful world dictator, able to command all mankind to bow and obey. Neoconservatives believe the US military can crush everyone who refuses to bow. Yet they could not rule either Iraq or Afghanistan. Taliban and ISIS run riot, after the American military fought them for a decade, spending trillions of dollars. This same force now is going to crush Russia and CHina? Sure. believe it, turn on CNN and hear how they plan to do it!
allow me to play devil's advocate. russia is fucked, regardless of their economic independence. they have same demographic problems as the west and too big governmental budget dependency on oil/NG export revenues which is hurting due to falling prices and changing markets.
but these are not the main reasons. instead, the west is desperate to have war (trade, currency, cold, hot etc) and they have picked russia as the target. all the incidents, from ukrainian war/coup to the collapse of the ruble, are no happenstance, but conspired and pre-programmed events. if affairs heat up, there won't be no winners, except selected supranational oligarchs profiting from the misery. god help us all.
regarding to MIC. it's not in their interest to win wars but to perpetuate them. and that's what's happening.
on top of all Jack brought forth...
Which culture is more resilient to economic warfare/downturns/transitions?
How long will American Soldiers fight once the paychecks stop? How will they get home.
Russia isn't fucked. They are way ahead of the curve. They acknowledge what is coming. They know a shitstorm is coming. They have a people that can adapt.
Can you really...honestly...right now...say the same things Stateside?
You can lie on here and say yes. That won't change the reality.
Look at the markets, charts, lies, divides, debt, corruption and fractured culture we have! Those are only the things I can think of off the top of my head.
We are in the absolute worst possible shape for what is to come.
I'd wager 80% of Americans even know it's coming and 100% of MSM has completely covered it up. Won't know what hit em.
We are fucked.
don't get me started! west is beyond fucked. what lies ahead for you, i can't even imagine. probably the USSA will be obliterated. let's hope you won't drag the world down with you.
i'm just stating, that what lies ahead for russia, will be no walk in the park, as the west will make everything in their power to initiate conflict. this is the speciality of the USSA. be as bankrupt as she is, she can still cause enough havoc to bring about another WW.
russians will survive, they always have. throughout history, they have had the most violent leaders and due to that, russians people have suffered more than anybody else, where countless number of millions have perished. but everybody gets the leaders they deserve (with the 'few' exceptions of USSA et al arranged coups), so there's that.
i'm just a bit weary of this pro-russian sentiment(ality) here. apart of most of you, i know the russian culture (including soviet), and have lived in it, while not being russian, so i have no illusions. prevailing support for russia and putin on this board is based on wrong assumptions, as they represent no values america once cherished and held true. there's no long tradition of liberty in russia, only strong traditions, which, truth to be told, are exceptionally fascinating, but completely alien for you, americans.
..."they represent no values america once cherished and held true"...
No arguement there. The Bolshevik Beaks confounded our language, culture, nation.
Babal...literally, the oldest trick in the book.
These are things that I'd think the Russians got a full dose of and now see the value in. If Putin doesn't believe in them and just plays lips service to them....I have no idea. Best guess is yes, it makes the country stronger and he knows this.
It's so rampant here. Every front. Divided. Confounded.
Believe me, I'm the last person that would have ever believed I'd look a Russia and feel inspired...and nostalgic for what we've lost.
Saxo CEO,
Respectfully: Go Fuck Yourself! I mean that sincerely.
How many times in 100 years can you miserable vermin expect to gang rape a country?
My great hope is that under Putin there wil crystallize a mechanism to make you wither, to cut you off from feeding on the blood of nations.
By the way, Russians celebrate Christmas in two weeks.
Have a Happy Federal Reserve Act Day, you worthless shit.
Napoleon and Hitler wrote off Russia and look what it got them.
and the USA supported them with billions in arms, food and money.
A lot of which ended up at the bottom of the Arctic sea.
Some convoys were total losses.
What got thru' helped, but not as much as the west would like to think.
Enough to help win the war and at the cost that some American fathers never returned home.
Funny, I do not recall Mr. Churchill to be a whiner.
No he was a realist.
Most of the losses were British in the infamous Murmansk run, not American.
You need a fact checker.
>>You need a fact checker.
So do you and much more than the person you complain about.
The bulk of Allied support to the Soviet Union went through the Persian Gulf and, more importantly, via American freighters sailing under Soviet flag-of-convenience from Seattle to Vladivostok. Also, no convoy on the PQ (Murmansk) run was ever a total loss. PQ-17 scattered under threat of a German surface attack and was badly damaged by U-boats and the Luftwaffe, but even then I believe (off the top of my head) about half the convoy made it to Murmansk or Archangel.
Estimated total of Allied aid was about 15% of total Soviet war effort. In terms of motor vehicles, aid was greater than 50%. Much of it was in goods that Soviet industry was weak at producing. Mixing agents to produce aviation gas. Radios. Boots and leather. An avalanche of US 4x4 and 6x6 vehicles that allowed Soviet units to be far more motorized than ther German counterparts. About 10% of their armor and aircraft.
In addition, US/British strategic bombing campaign shaved an estimated 9% off German war production. Each side needed the other in order for the joint effort to succeed.
Doesn't matter.
China's got their back this time.
And we have fuck all of an industrial base and don't have two damn dimes to rub together.
Saddle up, soldier. Bring lots of food and a coat.
And a whole lot of body bags.
Obama's failure as a President has been reflected in the bathroom mirror as the Alfred E. Newman of Foreign Yankee right-wing policy that doesn't work in Ukraine.The influence remaining in The State Department from Dick Cheney shows the contagious diseased ridden infected sore point.Absolute idiots tied up in US foreign policy like Victoria Nuland pictured by the US media as representing the American people.What a national disgrace to have someone like that working for you.The sooner Americans get rid of the dumb-ass crew over there,the better off the good ol' USA will be.Fire the whole lot of 'em.There's a chance at economic revovery right now,why take economic chances with Russia and others just when things are starting to look up,even if it's just a small start.It's overtime,money should be spent at home,not wasted starting a new cold war.Most Americans couldn't even find Ukraine on a map,let alone care about the US bringing nuclear weapons onto Russia's doorstep.It's insanity.I like what Ron Paul has to say on the issue,I can see Kissinger listened to him.
HA-HA-HA!!!
Obama portrayed as a 'right-winger'. He does not have the intelligence or the work ethic to even be considered a moderate let alone conservative.
What Kissinger means is NATO can't win a land war in Ukraine, and that China could and would back Russia {even if not with direct military aid - they might dump treasuries, for realsies, as they know they're on the same hitlist} and, I'll guess, that the American people might actually protest body bags coming back from yet another elective bloodbath having fuck all to do with American national security, democracy, or stability.
Lest we forget, Putin told the separatists to delay their referenda, and floated fairly moderate ideas about EU association without NATO troops, and autonomy for the Russian majority reasons [apart from Crimea, which did vote to rejoin Russia, andis much more strategically vital for Ivan than the other regions].
I have met the enemy, and the enemy is the neocons.
Bleh
ok now you can buy some rubles
And here I am wasting my time reading the bs of some frigging banker.
Hang the lot of them!!!!
> Russia’s years of neglecting to invest and reform pointed to an inevitable crisis.
High oil prices and the relatively high rouble value prevented investments into non-oil Russian industries.
So, the crisis will fix this situation. Not every crisis is bad.
<-- America's years of neglecting to invest and reform pointed to an inevitable crisis.
<-- Russia's years of neglecting to invest and reform pointed to an inevitable crisis.
another bankster dishing out bullshit
No shit Sherlock!
And it will also be unwise for the bankrupt and energy destitute shit for brains that started this mess with their next door cousin looting and murdering it to keep ratcheting up the pressure to a war that will make everyone a loser!
more than losers. just plain ole maggot food. just get them before they get you vlad.
Who's holding aces?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/43542857@N07/15903484988/in/photostream/li...
Make Ukraine a "buffer zone" = Orwellian newspeak for giving politician and banking psychopaths free reign
Each Russian oligarch and American oligarch should select a female champion to fight in a nude jello wrestling contest. Scoring will be on style and creativity. The winner gets Crimea..... That has more chance for Crimea than what else is going on.
US-EU-NATO don't want Ukraine without the eastern resources-rich regions controlled now by anti-Kiev separatists.
Well, now they're stuck with Ukraine.
Putin got what he came for.
It'll be a hot Christmas in Murmansk before Kiev or Brussels call Crimea "our little peninsula" again.
The next big problem for Russia, sorry Europe, is Belarus. The US see destabalisation there as the current priority, sorry again - distraction, for the Soviets. I'll pre-name this 2015 phenomenon as the fusia-pink uprising, where the folks in charge get libya'd, and the locals get fracked by Chev-whatever, whilst the main gas pipe there is privatised and bills to Gazprom begin to get unpaid. Result is an EEU collapse, when it's just got started, another NATO application - there as so many outstanding these days, and Europe loses another energy conduit. Nord Stream will be maxed out - not sure it can take much more than 4000 psi, unless a foreign sub, just off Sweden, torpedoes it, by accident, and our cookers and boilers suddenly go out, right in the middle of a pan of pasta! So having said all that, Russia, and for a Westerner, I know Russia, will not give a monkey's chuff. Like Yorkshire is England's biggest county, the Soviets own the biggest country - by quite a margin, and that really helps individual egos, about 140 million of them, so Putes and Lavrov, will not even need to get out of bed, and go through another catalogue of Minsk, sorry, Geneva round tables, to sort this next unholy mess out. Oil at $20 should be a much more exciting show-stopper, I personally cannot wait, this is all way better than pay-per-view!
You started egg nogging early. Nice.
Steen
You have a sweet resume, dude, but don't you think it's a little light in history and political science to be spouting off on events the since Victoria Nuland exposed her Kardashian ass in the Maidan?
This goes back to the Kennedy assassination in 1963 when you were a tiny spermoid waiting to open your first bank account.
Russia's problems today were foretold even before the Cold War ended. If Russia was not willing to lay down and get fucked like Denmark and her Scandavian Sisters.
Starting with Kosovo, the West gradually reneged on the truce that brought about the self-determination of the satellites of the USSR.
In 2002 the US withdrew from the ABM treaty. Did the Danish press even carry that? In 2004 NATO began the admission of the Warsaw Block countries, which included as quid pro quo for stationing NATO men and arms on their soil, an iron clad defense treaty against any attack. And who would that be?
Russia, of course, who had just given them their independence.
Is it starting to make sense to you Steen?
From 2004 to 2013 the West just installed lots of Patriot missile banks, to defend Europe, probably Denmark, against missiles from Iran and North Korea (I have read how nervous the Danes are about North Korean missiles).
When the Russians petitioned NATO to join the defense against Iran and North Korea, they were turned down. When they asked to see the mechanism of the missile shield to know they weren't aimed against Moscow, they were turned down. When they asked NATO to sign a worthless scrap of paper that the missiles weren't aimed at Russia, they were turned down.
It was your countryman, Anders Rasmussen, who did the turning down.
After Edward Snowden landed in Moscow the West got fed up being patient with Putin, and in November 2013 Obama played his ace of trumps in Kiev, The February Revolution.
Here we see Putin at his most masterful. He lets the revolution succeed. All the Russia and Putin want is Crimea in perpetuity. Not all of Ukraine until the next election, that may or may not have triple digit billions of CIA dollars floating around.
So Viktor Yanukovych does not call in the army or the water cannon and the West's best friends, the Ukrainian Nazis win and take over, until the election of Pytro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian voice of Victoria Nuland.
There was referendum in Crimea and an acceptance by Russia and somebody shot down a jetliner.
And the price of oil fell out of bed.
If you really are a banker, you know how shitty the global economy is. That what strength it has shown in the last 5 years is exclusively the result of the Federal Reserve printing money and buying bonds and toxic assets from the large American banks.
Who plowed the QE money right back into the DJIA stocks.
Today the DLIA closed at 18024, up some 11,000 points from the low of March 2009.
As an honest banker, can you tell us if this run by the Dow is an honest one?
Isn't it ironic that Kissinger and Brzezinski both saying Ukraine should not join NATO and remain a neutral buffer zone yet Poroshenko does the exact opposite...