This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

2015 - What Does Cycle Analysis Suggest?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:41 | 5588097 db51
db51's picture

Merry Christmas ZHers!

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:47 | 5588116 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

Merry Christmas to all here!  May love and joy fill your homes and GOD's blessings be many in The New Year.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:43 | 5588110 wmbz
wmbz's picture

When your main market participent is none other the private banksters un-federal reserve that tends to change the outcome.

Big difference between a "free" market and a completely controlled, fully rigged market.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:10 | 5588214 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yea, lets go back there and dig for some gold.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:43 | 5588111 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

u2 db51

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:48 | 5588123 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

look at the pretty charts mommy

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:51 | 5588125 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Ed Yardeni published the two following charts which show that analysts are always overly optimistic in their estimates."

ALL salesmen are perpetually optimistic. They are S E L L I N G you something. No one buys from a negative Nellie. And everyone wants to be S O L D.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 10:58 | 5588154 Drummond
Drummond's picture

I'm having a hard enough time predicting the past let alone the future.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:04 | 5588188 oudinot
oudinot's picture

The chart is fucked,no cedibility.

The chart has 4 years for Lincoln both in 1861 and 1863-an impossiblity- and leave out the administration of Andrew Johnson completely.

 

Just crap.

 

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 13:11 | 5588681 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

You're right, oudinot. I don't remember 1863 that way at all. /sarc

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:09 | 5588205 will ling
will ling's picture

since when is "playin' " w/free money a market?

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:12 | 5588221 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"The biggest single problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is that they consistently disregard the possibility for unexpected, random events."

I can't imagine an unexpected random event that the FED cannot paper over with MOAR free money.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:59 | 5588420 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Thar is actually a very good question. What kind of adverse events can't be counteracted by Fed money printing, or won't be even if the Fed could do so?

-- The destructiveness of major war or natural disaster. The Fed can paper over losses but can't erase the actual destruction. These are low probability events, however.

-- Some currency movements. The Fed can drive the dollar down by printing dollars, but can't easily drive the dollar up. Right now the dollar is rising, and the Fed may not want to counteract this rise for political reasons.

-- Inflation. The only way for the Fed to kill inflation is to jack up rates and reduce the money supply. However, inflation has been consistent for the last 6 years, and is likely to remain so.

-- Oil. The Fed can't print oil. But we are in an oil glut right now, so this isn't relevant to the near term.

-- The "wrong" party wins in 2016. Right now the Fed is entirely filled with Obama appointees. If the Republicans sweep in 2016, expect the Fed to pull the plug and cause a recession.

Conclusion - In terms of probability, the most likely black swan is the Fed pulls the plug after the 2016 election goes the wrong way.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:12 | 5588223 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

How many of those years on those pretty and perfect charts were the central banks OUT RIGHT BUYING EQUITIES??

 

I feel that sometime down the road, the FED will own all and everthing that can be purchased and price decreases will be outlawed as well as our liberty.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:51 | 5588392 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Federal Reserve has become like the old Soviet Government. Owns everything.

It's bankster-land. 

Banks replace all the other businesses. One on practically every corner to show they own everyone and everything.

A Chase bank on every corner as Jamie Dimon put it in his huddle calls.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:17 | 5588235 matt1021_98
matt1021_98's picture

If downside is only to s&p 1600, then selling now is a big waste of time - I'd rather pay no capital gains taxes and just ride it out.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:22 | 5588255 Your guess is a...
Your guess is as good as mine's picture

Can we have a chart showing how often the bearish articles on ZH have been correct?

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 11:48 | 5588375 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's like a communist market now.

Yellen, William Dudley and the Fed control the stock market and they like to think the bond market with printed money.

Taking down the dollar would brink back free markets and kill the power of the Federal Reserve. 

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 12:05 | 5588437 adr
adr's picture

The problem is that the algos that trade 99% of the market are programmed on flawed analysis. They see the correlations and trade them based on the flawed analysis. So you end up with a market that goes up because a computer program thinks it should go up, not because there is any real fundamental reason for it.

When you zoom in and out of the charts you see the exact same pattern over and over. A massive upshot after a minor correction. Why? Because it appears previously and what should follow is what followed before. Exactly how a computer program would interpret a chart. Which is absolutely insane.

Every Corporation traded on the exchange manipulates their data to have the best possible reaction from the algos since the people at the top of the corporate ladder derive almost all their wealth from stocks.

It is a completely corrupt ass backwards system. But it richly rewards its key players. You can't stop it unless the exchange is shut down which needs to be the #1 goal of the few free people left.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 14:11 | 5588947 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Even the big money people think the algos are out of control.

Far from helping them manipulate, they are now stopping them doing what they want.

Ironic really.They can't stop th ealgos directly without it all falling arounf their ears.

I'm waiting for a rash of quant 'suicides' in the near future to confim whats probably planned next.

Nothing personal, just biz as they say in some circles..

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 12:18 | 5588489 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

I think technology has ruined the world. AI will destroy us. God forbid a machine becomes sentient.

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 13:21 | 5588729 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

Considering your name, that's a rather ironic comment!

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 12:18 | 5588496 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

And don't forget folks - 'risk management', as Lance Romance has stated oh-so-many times.   Best that you don't try to manage your risk at home, but instead contact a '$$$professional' to do it for you...

 

 

Wed, 12/24/2014 - 13:40 | 5588821 Norm Alcybias
Norm Alcybias's picture

Well, I’m certainly certain my uncertainty will certainly ascertain whether my certain uncertainty is certainly uncertain. And that I’m like, likely that I’m likely to like what’s likely.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!