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The Keynesian End Game Crystalizes In Japan’s Monetary Madness
Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
If the BOJ’s mad money printers were treated as monetary pariahs by the rest of the world, it would at least imply that a modicum of sanity remains on the planet. But just the opposite is the case. Establishment institutions like the IMF, the US treasury and the other major central banks urge them on, while the Keynesian arson squad led by Professor Krugman actually faults Japan for being too tepid with its “stimulus”.
Now comes several new data points that absolutely confirm Japan is a financial mad house—-even as its policy model is embraced by mainstream officials and analysts peering from a distance. Front and center is the newly reported fact from the Cabinet Office that Japan’s household savings rate plunged to minus 1.3% in the most recent fiscal year, thereby entering negative territory for the first time since records were started in 1955.
Indeed, Japan had been heralded as a nation of savers only a generation ago. During the era before it’s plunge into bubble finance in the late 1980s, households routinely saved 15-25% of income. But after nearly three decades of Keynesian policies, Japan has now stumbled into an insuperable demographic/financial trap; and one that is unusually transparent and rigidly delineated, to boot.
Since Japan famously and doggedly refuses to accept immigrants, its long-term demographics are rigidly baked into the cake. Accordingly, anyone who will make a difference over the next several decades has already been born, counted, factored and attrited into the projections.
Japan’s work force of 80 million will thus drop to 40 million by 2060. At the same time, its current 30 million retires will continue to rise, meaning that its retiree rolls will ultimately exceed the number of workers.
Given those daunting facts, it follows that on the eve of its demographic bust Japan needs high savings and generous interest rates to augment retirement nest eggs; a strong exchange rate to attract foreign capital to help absorb its staggering $12 trillion of public debt, which already stands at a world leading 230% of GDP; and rising real incomes in order to shoulder the heavy taxation that is unavoidably necessary to close its fiscal gap and contain its mushrooming public debt.
With its debilitating Keynesian fiscal and monetary policies now re-upped on steroids under Abenomics, however, it goes without saying that nearly the opposite conditions prevail. Most notably, no household or institution anywhere in Japan can earn anything on liquid savings. The money market rate which determines deposit money yields was driven from a “high” of 100 basis points (as ridiculous as that sounds) at the time of the financial crisis to 10 basis points today, which is to say, nothing.

But what is even more astounding is that the yield on the 10-year JGB dipped to an all-time low of 0.31% in recent trading. Given the militant insistence of the BOJ that it will hit its 2% inflation target come hell or high water, it is accurate to say that the official policy of Abenomics is to cause holders of the government’s long-term debt to loose their shirts.
In fact, however, failing to think more than one step ahead, the BOJ actually wants banks, households and other financial institutions to sell their shirts at a handsome profit. That is to say, the BOJ’s bond purchase program is now so massive that it is buying 100% of the government’s gross debt issuance. In practical terms this means the float of public debt is actually being shrunk, and that the government bond market for all practical purposes has been extinguished by the BOJ.
There is nothing left except one relentless bid by the central bank. Recent data from Japan’s government pension insurance fund (GPIF), for example, show that the GPIF alone has already sold several hundred billions dollars worth of government bonds to the BOJ.
Needless to say, this radical monetization of the entire government bond market is an act of financial suicide. The BOJ now dares not stop the printing presses because absent the central bank’s big fat bid, the market would gap up violently. Yet 40% of Japan’s government revenue is already absorbed by servicing its gargantuan public debt. Even a 180 basis point increase in average yields (meaning that the 10-year JGB would still be under 2%) would absorb the remainder. That’s right, 100% of government revenue would be pre-empted by debt service.
This obviously amounts to a fiscal Looney Tunes scenario, but it is nonetheless embedded in the math. Even after the consumption tax increase from 5% to 8%, Japan’s general government is spending about 100 trillion yen per year while obtaining only 50 trillion yen in tax revenue.

As is evident in the chart above, this yawning gap has been building since the early 1990s when Keynesian missionaries converted the local fiscal apparatchiks to the religion of deficit finance. Now, having wasted 25 years figuratively building highways and bridges to nowhere, the Abe government has obtained a mandate not to raise taxes further until at least 2017. This means that the public debt will continue to soar, and that the BOJ will be under unrelenting pressure to monetize 100% of the new debt issues, least it risk a devastating flare-up in yields.
That makes for a juxtaposition that is out of this world. Since the early 1990’s Japanese bond yields have been falling owing to the BOJ’s financial repression, supplemented by the disinflationary boom stimulated on a worldwide basis by central bank fueled credit expansion. For all practical purposes, Japan’s government debt yields are at the zero bound, and, in fact, maturities up to two years are trading at negative yields.

By the same token, the public debt burden has been climbing relentlessly since the early 1980s owing to the embrace of Keynesian fiscal policies, as so vividly demonstrated in the graph below. And now owing to Abenomics, another 7-10% of GDP will be added annually to the public debt in the years just ahead.

The desperate nature of Japan’s debt trap could not be more vividly depicted than in the chart below. In yen terms—-and that’s the metric that drives Japan’s budget receipts—–national income has not experienced any net growth since 2006! And Abenomics has not altered the picture in the slightest. During the most recent quarter nominal yen GNP was no higher than in January 2013.

In short, Japan’s fiscal equation is caught a brutal vise in which the denominator (GNP) is stranded on the flat line, while the numerator (public debt outstanding) continues to soar. So for the moment at least, Japan has resorted to 100% printing press finance of its public accounts.
But here’s the thing. The BOJ is destroying the yen and absolutely foreclosing the option of international capital inflows in the years ahead—save for short-term speculations by carry-traders in New York, London and the lesser gambling arenas around the globe. Consequently, the sharp fall of the exchange rate since 2012 is at risk for an accelerating plunge the longer the BOJ prints massive amounts of new yen to finance 100% of the government’s deficit.

Currency collapse, in turn, means that the cost-of-living on an economic archipelago that imports 100% of its energy and most of its raw materials is bound to rise, causing real wages to fall. In fact, that marks another fraught in-coming data point. In November, real cash wages plunged by 4.3% on a year/year basis, marking the 17th straight monthly decline and the steepest slide since December 2009.

Thus, the Keynesian disaster is complete. Massive BOJ money printing to fund the deficit is eroding real wages, thereby mitigating against tax increases capable of closing the fiscal gap and reducing the financing burden. The mad men at the BOJ are also, and simultaneously, obliterating the domestic saver with ZIRP and warding off international investors with a plunging exchange rate. Consequently, there is no honest way to finance the public deficit, meaning that the printing presses will continue to run red hot.
That this policy amounts to a financial suicide mission is obvious enough. But what is truly scary is that Japan’s policy model has been greenlighted and adopted in one form or another by governments and their central banking branches all around the world.
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You can't take it with you.
Resources exist to be consumed. And consumed they will be, if not by this generation then by some future. By what right does this forgotten future seek to deny us our birthright? None I say! Let us take what is ours, chew and eat our fill.
CEO Nwabudike Morgan
"The Ethics of Greed"
Pariah!
Hah!
Here we are, by we, the Whole World, caught in a Liquidity Trap with Zero (as in nada, zilch, bumpkus, 'nuffing, squalooch) Economic Response by the People, the Folks, the Plebes and Peons.
Why?
Because the money ain't going to the people and the people don't believe that it's all good and thus, will neither spend nor borrow, but worry of the 'morrow.
Mayhaps the best thing could be done (and then maybe it's too late as the retirees, et al have now eaten up all their principle so no income to earn thereupon ... that's a fine mess you've gotten us into, Ollie)) would be to raise short rates to say, 5.0% so that retirees, et all's money earns something so that they might feel safer about spending, etc.
But WTF, nobody listens to me anyhow.
What you are looking for is basic income. It's what is needed for the post-Jobs society as we automate away everything and abundance is everywhere.
Presumably the Yen Carry trade is the only reason that JPY has not completely collapsed to date? The only surprise is why sales of Gold have not gone through the roof in Japan? If I were Japanese I would have ALL my savings in physical Gold by now.
I guess that's the bitch of deflation.
Japan is doomed, and not because of their Abenomics.
The average size of a Japanese penis is 2 inches and Japanese women, during sex, sound like a Squeaky Duck.
There could be Cause (2 inches) and Effect (squeaking) at play here. ;-)
Japan’s Demographics are terrible and here’s why – who would want to have sex with a 2-incher or a squeaky toy? ;-)
Looney
Aaaahhh Japan - starting to bring back all kinds of memories from former Yugoslavia.....
It's hard to figure out. People put all their money in the Post Bank or under the mattress. I don't think they even consider it much. Of course, it could be that more and more are living paycheck to paycheck (there is no deflation in Tokyo rents) hence the measly 3% savings rate.
Question for the economists among you ... when computing the savings rate do they add in the witdrawal rate? If people are drawing down their savings is that a negative savings rate?
Negative savings is DEBT
What better way for TPTB to begin the culling process of 6+ billion people other than collapsing the planet's economic system...
Nope, it could also be consumption based on spending your principal in savings. If at month's end, you need to go another week without cash, you consume part of your savings and hence a negative savings rate without debt buildup.
I have all my savings in Metals and foreign currencies and I am looking for another place to live. They cannot destroy my savings, but they can destroy the value of my labor. I am not Japanese, and i will not die for Zimabenomics.
The Yen is part of the SDR basket, and thus the International Financial Cartel must keep the yen afloat until they can initiate WW3, or introduce whatever new globoslavecurrency lies waiting.
This article is the best summary yet of the dilemna facing the Japanese. The key to understanding how it came about is to understand that the BOJ (like the Fed, ECB, and BOE) is not necessarily owned by Japanese, and in fact has faced considerable resistance from Nativist Japanese operating the MOF and MITI. Unlike the native political class, however, the destruction of the nation, the economy, and the currency is not a problem for the International Owners so long as their ability to create credit is not impaired.
Who owns the Bank of Japan? Not Shinzo Abe.
If working people had been given a way to save their hard earned, without inflation destroying what they'd saved or having it skimmed off by government, the only retirees that would be worried would be those who didn't prepare for old age.
I don't have a lot, but I have no debt.
Pension funds are to be the next big theft by the banksters - they even got to change the law to expedite the theft.
Real money and no fractional reserve bullshit - and take the money (bribery) out of politics.
Only Royalty, Lords, and Bankers & Lawyers... could even think up some sick s*it like taking Pensions from working families.
It is either Evil or it will do till the Evil shows up.
I wonder how safe my local small city police & fire Pensions are protected, Teachers & Civil Servants too.
Don't worry, they go UNPROTECTED.
i gots my superannuation (thats 401ks to you americentric types) in physical gold and silver now.
bail in proof. if any of you have yet to do this, as Jimi sings, THE HOUR IZ GETTIN LATE, LATE!
I thought Superannuation was more like Social Security?
Incorrect. Superannuation is a slightly more restricted form of 401k (harder to get your money out before tetirement age) One of few options is to self manage it, sink a big chunk into metals, and as things continue to unwind, you might think of substituting some tungsten for your phys... Incase you have to deal with aggressive 'bail ins' i.e theft
Dupe
Does the government contribute to it? Do employers?
Employers pay 9% of gross earnings into your nominated fund. Various types out there, bank owned, privately run, or you can do your own... You are able to pay extra and have it deducted from gross earnings I.e pre-tax
gov contributes some too, and theres some tax breaks for voluntarily garnishing your wage by more than the minimum
all in all it was a pretty good initiative when first set up by Keating in the early 1990s. But by the time im allowed access to it (in 25 years or so) im sure it will have been robbed or destroyed by the aristocracy. Thats another reason why its so important to put it in a form of preserved wealth with no counterparty
.gov only contributes if sub30k p.a salary sacrifice (even then capped at 1k co-contribution)
When will I be able to afford a first class vacation to Kyoto? I'm hoping the Yen declines so much they have to send the Japayuki home and start staffing the better houses with real Japanese girls.
The conservative theme of life was to SAVE for life's uncertainties and retirement if one should turn out so lucky. The conservative is dead as the inability, actually the unwillingness to save places us firmly in the hands of the progressives. Our dependency is paramount to their success, and a people with no savings, no cushion, are completely dependent on the State to fend off life's perils. Even those who have saved now find their savings increasingly more worthless and dependent upon the policies of the State for survival.
Why save when you can print?
Uhh? cause you´re not a central bank and you´ll get arrested for counterfeiting.
Financial Creativity by federal government & financial advisers is proven by the many agencies & projects that store federal funds in trusts invested in treasuries.
Impossible to imagine the pensioners, future retirees, and fixed income people are forgotten out of ignorance. LIRP & ZIRP for so many years even back to 1999 Dot.com crisis shows a persistent pattern of manipulation & historical systemic abuse.
5% seems like it would put integrity back and allow the .gov to take back some of it in taxes.
"You can't take it with you."
That's not gonna a problem, given the trend line, and Zimbabwean currency creation in Japan.
The US is ahead of Japan in this trend, given that many/most are on the Negative side of the Savings curve, i.e. dipping into savings rather than building them up. I'm 99% certain that you personally know of at least 1 person in your sphere of contacts who fits that bill.
The tenth rule of aquisition: "Greed is eternal."
http://bit.ly/1wTud5s
Equals to: human race is a 100% (99.99% + 0.01%) failed species.
With zero hope left.
Yes - thanks to eternal greed - and laziness and ignorance.
Because of the - always and relentlessly blamed - 0.01%.
BUT also because of the 99.99%.
Latest example: how, after all the disasters created in Japan, is it possible that Abe gets reelected?
Oh yes thanks to the eternal laziness and ignorance of the 99.99%.
Which clearly went/goes global.
We are a 100% failed species.
Though the 100% continue their destructation un-abated.
Outcome is crystal clear.
French type revolution again. Much much worse than Stonage.
Planet-wide.
You get what you elect. So you deserve what you elect.
Another ice age will be the greatest gift for this wonderful but otherwise lost planet.
Get used to times when electricy/power will only be available a few hours in the day.
So have you own self sufficient power supply.
Get used to 10fold higher food prices.
So have your own soil to grow it yourself.
Get used to 1932ff: say the wrong thing at the wrong time - and you get converted to tooth paste.
Get used to stonage society: the strongest and most cruel around will have the final say.
So either belong to the "right" clan - or have your own military. Or get used to kreeping and begging on your knees.
All of which boils down to the same: Gold and Silver will again be THE money. But without self sufficient force to defend it, and everything else you think you own at any given time, you and yours will just be food and slaves and prisoners for the stronger and more cruel ones.
ISIS, Syria, Iraq, etc - today - ARE - FOR SURE - no coincidence.
That's how our planet will look like in the decades to come. More or less everywhere.
There's no other way to go with paper becoming worthless.
What is our fault - as we have (re-)elected the current criminals in power.
Due to our current 100% ignorance, laziness and greed.
In fact - WE - CURRENTLY - are laying the groundwork for what will happen in the decades to come.
Due to our asses sitting day in day out infront of trading screens and/or TVs - instead of moving our asses out in the streets and doing human work = laying the groundwork for refusing to accept and re-elect the current corrupt parties and establishments and puppies which just serve wealthy interests and never the poeple.
We the people - have long gone down the river. Instead we are masturbating in and on twitter and facebook - while our rights and freedoms are taken away.
We the poeple - has long become a unknown myth.
We will pay an unbelievable hefty price for all that ignorance. In the decades ahead.
But who still cares? With all those juicy markets around, with all those games and TV series and tablets and iphones and social media and porn and burgers and coke and chips and free money from the government.
We are a lost generation. And there is no way out anymore. We all know it - and still we continue the same way unabated. Day in day out.
Not greed is our greatest enemy. Our own ignorance is.
fab retrace of population numbers.
do you feel lucky? prepared? opportunistic?
3 bullets left in the wheelgun...
Go for it!
'bout the only way out for the nips now is attack china at the monkey's behest after weaponizing all that uranium they got lyin' around.
The only way for Japan to escape this mess is to join China and Russia in a new economic partnership and dump the USD.
That said, your scenario is probably the most likely to happen.
I wonder what Japan's policy is toward ethnic Japanese who want to immigrate to Japan. I don't know if they would have any takers, but if there is a shortage of workers in the future would people of Japanese descent living in Brazil, Peru, USofA or Canada be willing to immigrate to Japan? Any guesses?
They've tried since the 80s (economic boom and increased opportunities) for those no more than 3rd generation believing it would be better to have ethnic Japanese rather than other Asians or Europeans/Americans. There are many problems, utmost the language, levels of proficiencies are a requirement for all immigrants regardless of ethnicity. But there is also the matter of acceptance by native Japanese not only because of the language but intermarriage with non-Japanese (Brazilian, Peruvian, etc.).
Basically, you are either Japanese or an outsider. For what its worth, I don't see the problem with that attitude. It protects an ancient culture even as it gives a finger to the multicultural globalists.
Of course, lately, not many want to emigrate back to Japan because the economy has been in a slide.
Overall, It has not made a significant impact on the population or the demographics.
ETA: There is not a labor shortage in Japan. Like the US and EU, labor is simply too expensive. Immigration is designed merely to lower incomes. In Japan, this is a particular problem in the government healthcare industry. It is simply too expensive for the government to set competitive labor rates with a bankrupt welfare system. They are trying to bring in Indonesians, Thais, and Filipinos (among other SE Asians) but the language barrier is simply to high for that level of worker to overcome. And there is resistance from older Japanese not keen to have a foreigner taking care of them in their homes.
Sounds believable. I also have no problem with their immigration policy. Kyle Bass refers to them as xenophobic, but I have no idea why prefering to live around your own tribe is something to be faulted for. I would imagine watching the news coming out of the USA isn't changing any opinions in Japan about the "benefits" of diversity.
There is not much news coming out of the US/EU as you would think. For instance, there are Japanese language versions of CNN, the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, to name a few. However, they tend to have the same editorial slant as the English versions in the states (meaning multiculturalism is not presented as a problem. Then there is the government media (NHK) which tends to be non-critical of Japan's allies.
There is a fine line between xenophobia and "preferring to live with your own tribe"? Especially when the choices are to survive or to die. Socail sepuku? All for one, one for all. very noble. I guess that at this stage it makes little difference, the only issue being how Japan will emerge from BK? My guess is that it will be in exactly the same way..
It depends on what your definition of survival is. For some, maintaining a debt-based lifestyle at all costs which burdens future generations is important. For others, passing their culture to their children is the goal. Japanese would tend toward the latter, though they seem to have lost their way.
In any case, with the right policies, 100 million Japanese would have no problem surviving on their own. They certainly were surviving - and flourishing - as a culture and a trading nation before the US "opened" them up to the world 170 years ago.
As the Fukushima glow spreads and adds to this unprecedented surge in prosperity I doubt their will be a sudden nostalgic urge to return home, anymore than the Irish yearned to go back during the potato famine. We all love and miss Atlantis..but certainly would not want to go down with it.
I can remember a time when America and Hollywood did not deliberately offend other nations in the deceptive guise of "freedom of speech".
Using the right of Freedom of Speech to justify offending other people is not the heart and spirit intended by the Founding Fathers of this great nation.
That's true whether it's done here in America or anywhere else.
wow, what a revelation. [/SARCASM]
I'm actually surprised to read an article highlighting Japan's demographics that did not offer up the immigration solution.
BTW, it is not a demographics "trap." The birth rate has been trending lower since the 70s like most all post-war developed nations even as welfare benefits have increased. It hasn't crept up on anyone.
My kids and a lot of their friends have said they couldn't, in good conscience, bring another human being into this madness.
Same in Japan but more for economic reasons. More and more kids being born to younger single mothers as well. That's a double curse on the kids, the mothers, and the welfare system. An increasing divorce rate only adds to the single-parent household tally.
The family is has been destroyed.
That´s western liberalism, aka westernization.
Yep. It's all the Liberals' fault.
As it concerns Japan which is very conservative on the whole, it really is.
Progress depends on the destruction of all traditional values, from religion to sex to economics to our fucking diet. Whether anyone cares to notice, the progressive way seems to embrace any theme that increases the public dependency and always puts a greater portion of the individuals finances in the government's hands......for our own good, for sure. Do not think for a moment that now the federal government is defining our healthcare access, they have the absolute right to tell us what we eat and what we do with our bodies......the exact same people who have claimed a women's absolute say over their bodies for the last thirty years. Hypocrites.....anyone????
Women rights, feminism and legalized massive abortion, repeal that and you will get your 2.1 children at least.
But it's not politically correct in our time of entitled society. I guess self-murdering an entire culture and nation is just better. So much for the Western "values".
Sounds a lot like the U.S.A. We've been painted into the same corner.
Same Monetary system. More likely than not, same Owners of said system.
There will be another crisis, that's a given.
If all goes well (i.e. the sheople comply)...
The solution will be to usher in a new global monetary system. China, with the largest economy and representing other Eastern sovereigns, doesn't have a seat at the table...that's about to change.
It will be the era of the 'Great Rebalancing'.
That rebalancing has already started (where has the real wealth been flowing...coughAUcough), and for the West, that rebalancing will continue to get uglier.
Keynesian Krugmanism is slow quicksand.
The concept of saving is so last century and an act of defiance even - almost as irresponsible as buying gold.
Banzai! Kamikaze monetary policy!
Dive bomb to default!
Noooooo Problem. First, we have to get used to the new financial paradigm. ZIRP and NIRP = GOOD. Saving = BAD. Spending = GOOD. Debt = NO PROBLEM. Money Printing = GOOD. Money Printing Forever = BETTER.
Forget those old hangups about money being a stable holder of value. Forget about returns on savings. All savings should be spent immediately to help the economy. Savers are like hoarders - people with sad insecurities.
The BoJ is doing the eminently sensible thing by buying ALL Japan Gov't bonds, and turning interest rates to nil or negative - this strategy will reduce government cost of carrying debt to zero. (Ya gotta love ZIRP). Whenever convenient, the BoJ can stage an earthquake and fire, and POOF! all debt erased. Or maybe a computer hack by those dastardly North Koreans will erase all the computer records of national debt. Easy!
The BoJ and Abe are just trying to get a head start on the rest of the world in the currency devaluation race. Russia had a head start lately with the Ruble falling, but they are losing their lead.
After all, a "Yen" is just a vague wish.
As for demographics, all workers will soon be replaced by robots intelligent enough to take over and run the country and industry better than humans ever could, freeing humans to drink tea and eat sushi.
And robots are much more resistant to radiation than humans.
We've played that Monopoly game during long summer nights at the cabin by steadily handing out money to keep the party going. By 2 AM, almost all went home broke with one holding a pile of worthless paper.
Not an economist but it seems there are parallels. What's the time now?
It's easy to see how this ends. Japan sends a bunch of geriatrics to attack Pearl Harbor, they lose the battle, Japan surrenders, and Mr. Yellen rolls the printing presses to rescue Japan.
A bond market crash is imminent in Japan. Who wants to hold Japanese bonds with near zero rates and a currency depreciating at a few percent a week?
The US is in an equally dire situation with debt and unfunded liabilities per taxpayer of $1.270,000 and rising at nearly $70,000 per taxpayer per year. The chance that Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and other European countries ever pay down their debt is less than zero. Yet all these bonds are trading at record low yields as if risk of sovereign default has been magically banished from Western finance.
Yes, the Japanese Central Bank is buying but it can buy all new issuance but not all existing bonds. The Central Banks are naked even though they seem to have convinced investors of their omnipotence. All Western fiat currencies look primed for a fall as the Yen collapses and unravels the entire ponzi fiat of the West.
The Japanese bond market will not crash because the BOJ can and will buy every single bond. The only impact is on their currency as they hyperinflate it. And that will be just fine as long as the other Central bankers are willing to enforce an exchange rate by buying Yen. Until there is a viable USD alternative for the USD based western system to crash versus, you will never feel the sting of anything in the derivative markets. Everyone will print to absorb everyone else's garbage and no one will notice much of anything on the FOREX markets.
Exactly. This is a worldwide game. All countries are simultaneously broke and as long as no one rocks the boat (Russia) they will continue to buy each other's bonds. Mutually assure destruction ensures that no one will point out publicly that the king has no clothes. At this point there is no advantage to make waves. This monetization is driving financial markets and as long as the stock markets keep going up, the detractors will remain apparent idiots. I still think those selling these elevated stocks see the writing on the wall and are seeking safe haven which is government debt. Yes is NIRP but these same people have profited immensely and seek to retain as great a value as possible. A currency reset may devalue the bonds a bit but less than stocks (and we know bank deposits are at a real risk) and as long as our leaders want to stay in power they will support the debt. Their will be no sovereign default but there will be a currency reset. As long as the world currency debasement continues, gold will be suppressed, not only in dollar value but as a dollar alternate. "They" will not allow it to compete and will suppress as long as possible and then tax or control its exchange.
If countries such as Russia or China attempt to revert to some gold standard to support their currencies, it will be perceived as an act of war by the west. we are at war. The military side of war is the least of it right now but keeps the fires lit. The economic war at hand between groups of nations as well as with these nations, as well as within the people of these nations, is reaching a boil. It will mature to violence at which time the military will assume its role. Meanwhile, stocks to the moon, gold just laying there, and more and more trying to climb into the life boats of sovereign debt.
One way to look at the current situation is that, finally money does not make money.
You can't save and get interest. And in real terms, money is being destroyed with negative interest rates.
And thats more or less what happened to Gold. You got to pay to keep it safe. To me world is getting back to reality. Good.
Those who control the resources and productive abilities are accumulating all the wealth.
Unfortunately they are mostly the 1%.
The whole central banking ruse is exactly that.
There's a term in American football where the quarterback "looks off" the pass defender by looking in another direction and then passes to the intended receiver. Classic misdirection.
This is exactly what's going on in the markets now. The markets, focused on QE, will never see the big bad BIS and IMF coming with the SDR and resulting national currency rebalances until the pass has been thrown to the open receiver.
Seems to me that more bankers should be jumping.
Thus, the Keynesian disaster is complete.
No it's not. It will only be complete when the whole shit show CRASHES.
Kyle Bass is going to make a fortune. Whatever it was he "shorted" is gonna come to him nearly "cost free" when the Yen implodes.
Amerika and the EU are "on deck" is this ball game.
I hope so, because he called it correctly.
I fear that the game will change 'ISDA style' and his firm will be left high and dry on the call.
Dangerous times to be betting against the house and status quo.
A preview of the economic future for the US.
Same game, different county. Japan is the canary in the Keynesian coal mine.
Krugman,
Are you paying attention?
Agree, but it has been 30 years of debasement of JPY so maybe unique case where the first, first world country begins the corruption & degradation... but the rest of us follow quicker.
Though with the European Trade Economy Model... Portugal, Spain, UK, Italy, Greece all under developed the economy after world wars... leaving consumption levels low and wages low and demand for labor low.
My guess is in Latino countries the wealthy can get money for their projects while there is little money for common people to start businesses. And when I look at Europe & Russia I see under developed industry and jobless people.
The Model is one of using foreign Labor & Resources to make money for Nabobs (Trade Industry). Free Trade is all about Wealthy people using political power to control & monopolize consumption & manufacturing. And it is about using Slave Labor overseas while keeping Domestic Labor Supply High and Wages Low.
Free Trade is Fascist. Mercantilism must be superior. Protectionism must be humane & serve national security issues of infrastructure, food, water, energy, heating oil, transportation.
The only thing fascist about free trade is the allowing of money to own government, the one entity that is supposed to prevent the monopolization of any market. Our government, if charged with any responsibility, is supposed to protect Americans. The prevention of monopolies as well as protectionist trade policies are designed specifically for this purpose, and of all the shit our government does, these protections are the ones that they have virtually deemed unconstitutional through their actions if not in law. Instead we have opened trade with our foreign competitors allowing them to import with virtually no tariffs, much less following comparable manufacturing practices. We have surrendered our own jobs and industry, not out of some egalitarian urge to improve others lives, but to simply obtain cheaper goods. Further, we not only do not tax foreign imports but seek to remedy these losses of incomes and jobs with government redistribution efforts that tax our businesses, our jobs, imposing even greater burdens and resultant job losses. Then, to pile on even more, they enable monopolies benefiting the friends of government under the umbrella of "stimulus" that seldom have any long term benefits to Americans. Deregulation, that a free people should normally support, has instead become another scheme to benefit the big players, the friends of government (cronies), while we take it up the ass again.
No, fascism is NOT a result of free markets, but a response to them.
Be it capitalism, collectivism or Marxism. the net result is that the players will seek to control and dominate the game. Domination through markets is much more difficult than to dominate it through government, which is why there has been such a push towards socialism. Socialism is the softer side of Marxism that attempts to hybridize the growth characteristics of capitalism while harnessing it to fund Marxist principles of redistribution, which can only be done through the power of government. This power is the seed of our destruction and its draw of corruption, of domination, is unstoppable. Ultimately it always falls to fascism to facilitate this collectivization of power. Meanwhile we all argue about which "system" is desirable, assuming of course, that the hearts of men are pure. Evil is the action of imposing ones will upon others. It always starts with t he best of intentions but once rolling crushes everyone beneath its wheels, with the most evil of men at the wheel.
plus 1, Good & Interesting Post.
I'd like to put something together on Regulations & Social Programs that are in question to most readers. But my head is not clear right now.
Part of that list will be civil rights, Equal Rights passed in like 1890 that gave corporations person-hood, MEDICARE, MEDICAID, Social Security, Worker Rights, OHSA Act in 1970, Obama Care, Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, the latest Law that reforms Dodd-Frank... Etc. Obviously I will fail to completely list FIRE Regulations since I am ignorant of Finance, Insurance & Real Estate.
1) I will attempt to support some social programs
2) I Will try to support Worker Rights
3) I will try to support the Bill of Rights
4) Looks like CO-OP Style Utilities, Banking, Retail, Trucking & Distribution & Wholesale Warehousing, and local or State Construction, Engineering, and Infrastructure Labor would help pull power back from DC & Wall Street
Krugman?
Yeah, Krugman. Little guy, beard, beady eyes...
Oh that Krugman. He's ah, he's the one in the corner inflating himself.
Inflating himsel...gasp. You mean fellating himself!?
No. He's a Keynsian. He's not sucking himself off. He's going the other way trying to inflate himself.
*POP*
So Abe is frontrunning his demographics.
If J P Morgan is the source of the JGB/Yen hedges,does this mean that the US taxpayer is on the hook for Japan?
Somebody has to be on the other side of this trade....
I read somewhere's that the Depression in the US was prolonged by a hurricane of money headed East to Hitlers' Germany,paying five percent on Reichs Bonds,funding the arms buildup,which we later had to pay for in blood.
I can't believe the Japanese pension funds will buy anything (JGB) that pays zero percent.As someone above stated,this implies zero risk of default.We now know this to be untrue.After Fukushima,the Japanese culture is beginning to crack.Their politicians and experts are lying to the public at an incredible level for that country.
I remember Hirohitos' surrender speech broadcast in 1945 stated an oxymoron,or certainly a contradiction.To wit:"The war had not developed necessarily to Japans' advantage...".
What we should probably be worrying about is the plutonium available in the reprocessed fuel assemblies.
As Saddam Hussein showed with his invasion of Kuwait,sometimes desperate people or gov'ts (the Argies in the Falklands conflict) will choose the military option.
Another way to look at it, Japan is extremely long robots. If robotics doesn't save them they have no hedge.
THEY ( them who must be obeyed ) are just buying time , aware of the oncoming train crash. In Abe's case hoping a war with a neighbour will delay the inevitable FALL on his watch.
http://princesoftheyen.com
A film about the power of central banks and the transformation of the economyWatching this now.
Great documentary. I should watch it again.
Thanks ZH!
Wake me up when Krugman is getting dismembered in the plaza...
Inflation is not an exit strategy for Japan. 2% inflation would require 3% interest rates. Interest is absorbing 43% of government revenues at extremely low interest rates that average below 1%. It is obvious that interest rates are not in line with reality but are being pushed lower and lower by radical central bank bond buying. This can only be a temporary solution as the currency will go into free fall if they continue with money printing. It is a fact that the wealth of Japan is invested in JGB's and their value hinges on reasonable credit ratings and interest rates. They recently were downgraded and have been moved to credit watch negative by other rating agencies. Continuing on the current path will bring a series of credit downgrades until the central bank is forced to stop or Japan moves directly into hyper inflation. Those are the only two exit strategies on the current path.
There is no way to develop long term growth that Abe is shooting for in an economy that has a shrinking population. Any and all growth in Japan is coming from debt. This is not an avenue to long term growth as debt destroys growth if you have too much of it. Japan is already the most indebted country in the world. Literally half of Japan's government spending is being borrowed. What do you think would happen to growth if they either raised taxes or cut spending or both to reduce this massive deficit? Abe and Kuroda have taken a massive risk with Krugman's advice in the wrong direction. They probably decided it was game over anyway and they might be able to reignite growth. Wages are declining and basic costs for energy and food are increasing. The standard of living is falling. Japan is headed for a major loss of wealth and it is easy to see that destroying the currency is not a positive. A negative savings rate also tells you that the demographics have caught up with you. Japan is running out of time. The right course would be to tighten budgets and reduce borrowing but Keynesians cannot do this. It would admit defeat.
What is truly amazing is... any sane individual with an IQ of 90 or higher can easily see the approach advocated by Krugman and Keynesians cannot possibly work. And so, either "leaders" are utterly stupid, or they know precisely what's going on, and fully intend to put their countries into such deep debt that... the central banksters and other fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fractional-reserve predators will foreclose on the entire nation, and own it all.
Increasingly this absurd notion seems more and more plausible, as humans endlessly demonstrate their willingness to be prey to any human predator who chooses to enslave and consume them.
I'll tell you why. Because "john and jane" have really good careers and have a nice house and car, and are living the american dream.
We can't let "john and jane" outdo us.
ah, insecurities. If I ever become a cult leader, I'll implement a fiat currency ecosystem + consumeristic type control mechanisms to keep my flock complacent.
Have you ever noticed how many people, when driving their cars and finding themselves in a tight spot, you know, with a fender touching a bolster or other vehicle, upon realization they have fucked up, rather than stopping and attempting to back out, instead floor it? People, especially those running things, will never stop upon realizing their mistake, instead choosing to floor it, committed to their direction, always assuming that there is more pain, more damage in backing up, than continuing on. A lethal mix of pride and stupidity. If I have noticed anything in life, it is not intelligence that promotes people, its their belief in themselves, their ego, their pride. It inspires and intimidates and as long as they can maintain the illusion of superiority, they will advance to the heights of their inadequacies. We are living in a world full of these posers, who have competitively worked to surpass their capabilities. So much power in the hands of fools.
People are paid to represent their institution. Doesn't matter if it is a university, a government, a non profit, or a corporation. They will represent the policy dictated to them or it is their job. And as everyone thinks they need their current employer!
Yes, self-employment is GOOD. :-)
the simple notion of no debt, vs something today with payments plus usery tomarrow. humans are weak mentally deficiant and reliant on other monkey like actions to dictate their own actions. it is always someone elses fault for their own action. plus humans lack an ability to link cause effect and especially when there are more than two varible OR when it requires- if this, then that, x 2, plus, such as getting finance(mortgage) or understanding economics. but i'll be god damned if merican know football rules, backwards, forward and sideways. not to mention all the stupidity on hollywood which is discussed as important news. fucking hopeless. reset, baby, reset. outcome will be viarible with large zones seamingly unchanged with major cities in complete chaos. ebt crisses will set it off imo...
The cash printing works to some extent to stimulate the economy ...while making some small few wealthy. But it does nothing to fix the economy. In fact it is a distraction in that it backstops inefficient activity - imagine what would happen to retail and autos and commercial real estate if cheap credit were taken away - resulting in reduction of debt and liquidation of non performers.
Printing makes everyone a little happy.
The alternate is not viable.
It seems no different from the last few hundred years.
Western economy has major monkey on its back.
It all boils down to those with paper assets when the inflation starts are going to be FUBAR. So all you have to do is figure out how they intend to convert their holdings of bonds and stocks to hard assets. We know the american public is likely to be the bag holder somehow. So I think the US treasury and fed will have to load up the american taxpayer with multiples more debt to fund the bailout that is coming. I mean suppose the yen goes titty up, the financial system will of course tank. The US will debt up by the trillions a d devalue the dollar at the same time. It is like they have to ruin everything and collapse value so the 1% can scoop up all the wealth plus all of the future value of labor through debt. See ya in slavery muppets bwahahahaha
don't forget the japs hold a shit ton of treasuries. i would think they would sell those in desparation. sell for dollars? hmmm, with the yens dead, wtf else but comversion to dollar. wow, it will be a fx nightmarish decision. dollar, yuan, rubble, euro, swiss miss, brics of gold? brenton woods V coming with sdr basket(hamper of dirty shirts)of fiat ass wipe combo platters.
At least you two understand the shitfest is nearly over.
recc'd for "fiat ass wipe combo platters."
I see Japan's shrinking population and workforce as the one bright spot. A 10% increase in population wouldn't create any more jobs as factories will just buy a few more robots, which in turn will also be built by robots. Even the service industries will become more automated so an expanding population would just be a burden. Aside from military threats from countries that have too many people and not enough resources, it's probably going to be countries with small, educated populations and lots of farmland and other resources that will have the best chance to prosper in the future.
<<it's probably going to be countries with small, educated populations and lots of farmland and other resources that will have the best chance to prosper>>
If that were true, then history would be a lot different--with lots of sparsely populated, wealthy nations dominating.
Economic disasters, like the one coming, lead to wars. This is our history. The happy nations you describe would be the natural targets and victims of those areas filled with people and not enough resources. Excess people is the finest natural resource for making war there is.
A society with really good robots (think Daleks) cleans that up with little trouble and no PTSD.
We have been at war for my entire life. You mean lead to civil wars or revolutions. And they wonder why the police are militarized.
How about the pensions? How will they pay out the pensions?
An increasing population won't help pay pensions. If there are no new jobs, there are no new taxes. You will just end up paying more in social security.
Why so complicated ... when it's much simpler : A Fraudulent Monetary System
Fraud - in the design
Fraud - within the system
Fraud - by all the 'so-called' intellectuals supporting it
Fraud - within the Govt., by lying Politicians that deliberately will not understand, because their Salary depends on it
All the complex analyses and graphs are there to cover up what is really that simple : Sytemic Monetary Fraud
But the Austrians were all wrong because they pedicted hyper inflation than never arrived so it's all good.
Actually, the solution for Japan lies not in immigration, as they adamantly eschew it. Instead they may well lead the way to the robot economy, where much of the work is done by machines that don't take sick days or are promised generous retirements. If there is a non-growth oriented solution to the current world wide economic malaise, it may well lie in the productive use of robots to produce income that is used to support aging (and shrinking) populations. We're all welfare queens now, bitchez...
Hyperinflation is only a matter of time. Next year, the next; five years, 10. Who knows but faith will eventually be lost in this fascist neo-keynesian empire.
the hyperinflation is in stocks and bonds
Ya, or, we can elininate these predators, and live free.
I found the Japanese to be the most racially and culturally closed-minded bigoted humans on earth. They deserve their self-inflicted demise, especially after the horrific atrocities they committed in WW2, another Easter Island in the making. Inevitably, the Japanese islands will become Chinese islands, the ultimate retribution.
Japan has unwittingly become a flashlight in the darkness.
With an empty battery.
Japan will need to equip the robots that care for their elderly with hunting and foraging capabilities.
For Japan, it's magic!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMRA0r92iac
a negative savings rate is the natural state for an aging population. a capital "drawdown rate" replaces the cost of borrowing or "interest rate".
qe works unitl people with accumulated capital need and want their money back. japan is at the same point europe and the US will be in a few years time.
the "tipping point" is not hard and fast, that is, the tipping point is not a certain ratio (of those retired needing capital at a drawdown rate to those requiring an interest rate to invest while working).
the tipping point is, as the author has pointed out, the amount of debt times interest that absorbs 100% of taxes (this is a charitable view; in my day, this would have been the end of the country and the tipping point would have been where interest on debt was much lower - say 25% of taxes).
here is a great snapshot of spending and taxes for the US
https://static.nationalpriorities.org/images/fb101/2014/presidents-budge...
(note that military spending and the deficit are (coincidentally?) the same)
the claim from these numbers is that interest on the (now $18tn) of national debt here http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ) is slated at just $252 billion or just 1.4% per annum.
apologies for the use of old school rules of thumb, but if that interest rate gets to the rate implied by nominal GDP (nominal ten year yields = nominal GDP and earnings yields around 1-2% over that) the 1.4% would be around 5-6% or four times higher - the interest bill would be a trillion dollars a year and would take out all the discretionary spending.
the US has the same problem as Japan. qe masks the issue, as it does in Japan and in Europe.
solution? only those who pay taxes can vote; in proportion to the taxes they pay out of the total taxes collected.
NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION
how naive;). in the fiat world of yellowbacks none of that matters. the japanese have gone where no one has gone since before 1913. they own their money own money now. if you want yen, the japanese will gladly print some up for you at no interest expense so you can swap it for rubles and get some yield. it is all just a math model that needs to balance in any way that looks good to a computer. there can never be any excess or unbalanced liquidity demand within the system but if there is .gov(the people) will cover it.
the fallacy of genius is that once you believe you are a genius something proves you are pretty fn stupid.
methinks you have hit on the solution for NOT running off radioactive wastewater at Fukushima ;)
Let's revisit this conclusion. I don't think you go nearly far enough. Of course we will never see sweeping reforms from the current congress.
"NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION"
How about more ideas?
No Lobbying without Taxation
No Exporting Capital without Taxation
No Outsourcing Jobs without Taxation
No creating money out of thin air without 70% of money spent on Capital Expenditures or Capital Equipment
NO QE or LIPR without Concrete Plans for Investment or Creation of Jobs, Good Jobs, and Manufacturing in the US Economy
You can't get off of QE or ZIRP without some kind of plan for fixing the economy after all... as soon as rates change the fear and panic sets back in.
BTW Obama's Budget seems to indicate a cut in the LIRP as last years Interest on Debt was like $400 Billion.
"the claim from these numbers is that interest on the (now $18tn) of national debt here http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ) is slated at just $252 billion or just 1.4% per annum."
2014 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $429.568 Billion
2013 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $415.670 Billion
2003 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $318.149 Billion
2002 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $332.537 Billion
2001 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $359.508 Billion
2000 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $362.118 Billion
1999 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $353.511 Billion
1998 Total--Interest on the Public Debt = $363.824 Billion
And lower for Medicare/Medicaid.
Total--Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Outlays 2014 = $1.187 Trillion
Total--Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Outlays 2013 = $1.118 Trillion
Total--Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Outlays 2000 = $413.12 Billion
Total--Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Outlays 1998 = $379.95 Billion
And lower for Education.
Total--Department of Education Outlays 2014 = $99.31 Billion
Total--Department of Education Outlays 2013 = $89.5 Billion
Total--Department of Education Outlays 2000 = $33.4 Billion
Total--Department of Education Outlays 1998 = $30.6 Billion
And higher for Housing.
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 2013 = $42.04 Billion
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 2013 = $59 Billion
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 2000 = $42.5 Billion
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 1998 = $51.7 Billion
And lower for Transportation.
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 2014 = $76.85 Billion
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 2013 = $76.9 Billion
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 2000 = $46.5 Billion
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 1998 = $40 Billion
And lower for International Assistance.
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 2014 = $49.37 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 2013 = $48 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 2000 = $25.7 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 1998 = $26 Billion
And an Increase in Military Spending.
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 2014 = 580.13 Billion
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 2013 = $609.4 Billion (Down from $650 B)
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 2000 = $283 Billion
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 1998 = $257.9 Billion
As if they have a choice ...
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canada goose parka Preis
must be norwegian? i think you qualify for a 400,000 loan for 1,686 a month - you can drink all the looney geese you want and never have to pay back the 400,000 - and you can say "i never have to pay that back"
rotten liver = bad debt = write off