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Only War, Inflation And Financial Collapse Can End The Global "Plutonomy", According To Citi
The last time the market was as euphoric and as complacent as it is now, was in the happy go lucky days of 2006 when every day stocks surged without a care in the world, when Lehman bankers were looking to a comfortable retirement after cashing out their stock (then trading north of $70), when the only question was which mega M&A and supermega LBO will hit next, and when the then-brand new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said there is nothing to worry about because subprime was contained and because home prices in the US just can not possibly drop. Not surprisingly, late 2006 was also when Citigroup held its first and only Plutonomy symposium: a joyous celebration of the 0.001%, or as Citi called them, "The Uber-rich, the plutonomists who are likely to see net worth-income ratios surge, driving luxury consumption", adding "Time to re-commit to plutonomy stocks – Binge on Bling. Equity multiples appear too low, the profit share of GDP is high and likely going higher, stocks look likely to beat housing, and we are bullish on equities."
Wait what? Was there really a time 8 years before the French economist Piketty bashed (and made millions in the process) class and wealth inequality, when one of the world's soon to be most insolvent banks had a symposium in which the bank pulled a page right out of pre-revolutionary France and celebrated the world's mega rich?
Yes, and that's not all.
In a trilogy of reports authored by Citi's then head of global srategy, Ajay Kapur (who subsequently quit Citi, tried his hand at running a hedge fund, failed, went to Deutsche Bank to head the bank's Asian equity strategy, failed, and has for the past year been working at Bank of America in that pluotcracy mecca, Hong Kong), couldn't find enough words of praise to explain just how great the brave new world is, one in which the 0.1% control about half of the world's financial assets, and said, on September 29, 2006, that "we think the balance sheets of the rich are in great shape, and are likely to continue to improve."
In retrospect we now know he couldn't be more wrong, and as events just two years later proved, it required a coordinated, global multi-trilion bailout of the entire financial system (which is still ongoing), to avoid the total collapse of the balance sheets of the rich.
However, the flip side of this ongoing intervention by central banks has meant that the (merely) uber rich in 2006 have since become uberest rich, and the nascent Plutonomy of the mid 2000s has morphed into a giant monster unseen at any time before in history.
And since the class divide of society has only gotten worse, here are some of Citi's observations on Plutonomy back then, which are even more applicable now.
From Citi's September 29, 2006 report:
Plutonomy – the story so far...
Over the last 20 years or so, in certain countries, the rich have been getting substantially richer. The share of the top 1% of the population of income has grown substantially in countries such as the US, UK and Canada. The countries, which apparently tolerate income inequality, are what we call plutonomy countries – economies powered by a relatively small number of rich people.
...
What has driven this? We see three drivers. Firstly, the bull market in financial assets – particularly equities – as inflation has fallen, has benefited those whose assets have been invested, particularly in equities as the disinflation was also accompanied by strong earnings growth as margins rose.
The current analog: the Fed-induces record breaking rally since the 666 lows hit in early 2009
Secondly, the rise of managerial capitalism, with CEO remuneration increasingly tied into EPS growth and equity performance.
Which should explain the record surge in corporate stock buyabcks. After all, yield-squeezed bondholders have to pay to make management (and activist shareholders) wealthier than ever before.
Finally, as with previous waves of plutonomy – such as sixteenth century Spain, seventeenth century Holland, Industrial Revolution Britain, the Gilded Age and the Roaring Twenties in the US – the ongoing technological revolution has generated a new wave of ultra-high net worth individuals.
... Such as a ludicrous $40 billion valuation of a taxi-alternative service or a several hundred billion market cap for yet another "cool, hip du jour" social network, all perfectly rational and which clearly have nothing to do with the endless pool of zero-cost money that VCs can recycle into perpetually unprofitable projects
To be sure, being uber-wealthy is not without its drawback. As Citi explained back in 2005, there is inflation, and then there is "inflation for the uber rich":
It's Never Been More Expensive To Be Rich...
Another new data point we have is the CLEW (Cost of Living ExtremelyWell) Index from Forbes Magazine for 2005 (in our original Plutonomy note back in October, we didn’t have the latest data point for the year 2005).
CLEWI is an inflation index of the cost of luxury goods. It measures such things as the cost of suite at the Four Seasons in New York (up 15% year on year) and a kilo of Imperial Beluga caviar (at US$6840, up 40% year on year). In 2005, the CLEWIndex rose 4%, while US CPI rose at 3.6%. Luxury goods still have relative pricing power. The 0.4% gap might not sound all that impressive, but bear in mind that a stronger US dollar, probably helped check this inflation rate (many luxury goods come from Europe, but the CLEWI is a measure in dollars). At any rate, the year to year fortunes of the CLEWI versus the CPI are less relevant. The long-term chart says it all (Figure 4). The most recent data point just confirms that in the search for pricing power, we’d rather be in luxury goods, than low end consumer businesses.
Surely everyone feels the pain resulting from the rising costs of living for the uber wealthy.
Sarcasm aside, the biggest question on everyone's mind is how does the current episode of peak-Plutocracy end. Back in 2005/2006 Citi saw nothing but bright skies ahead for the world's mega rich, and yet there already were ripples forming...
The risks to plutonomy
Our thesis is that the plutonomists are likely to get even richer over the coming years. This could mean global imbalances get even larger, without the planet getting knocked of its axis and sucked into the cosmos.
But this thesis is not without its risks. Plutonomies have existed before and they have come to an end. To this end we see four primary risks.
- The first, war and/or inflation.
- Secondly, financial collapse.
- Three, the end of the technological revolution.
- Finally, political pressure to end the increase in income and wealth inequality.
Looking back over time, wars have been pretty bad times for wealth. Both because of the destruction of physical assets, and/or confiscation of wealth... Global conflict/revolution on a scale that could destroy the wealth of the plutonomy countries looks to us unlikely in the short term.
Secondly, financial collapse. As much of the wealth of the plutonomists is held in one shape or other in financial wealth (as opposed to land or property), the state of the financial system is important. Financial collapse, as in the Great Depression in the US, would be a serious challenge to the plutonomists. While we have worried periodically about systemic financial risk, say in the aftermath of the LTCM debacle, it is beyond us to speculate about financial collapse. This would however be a serious issue for the rich.
A third challenge would be the end of the wave of technological revolution. The great plutonomy waves of previous centuries, such as the Gilded Age, the Industrial Revolution in Britain, the era of Dutch supremacy, were often associated with technological and financial progress. Economies advanced through progress, with the gains in the first instance disproportionately going to the innovator and risk takers. Were the technology revolution to dissipate, it is likely that the income gains would channel less to the top. Furthermore, technology waves are usually associated with productivity gains, which in turn tend to help keep inflation low and profit growth high. This in turn being a major source of financial wealth creation. So an end of this positive spur would be unhelpful to plutonomy. We see the current internet and communications revolution as being far from dead.
Perhaps the most immediate challenge to Plutonomy comes from the political process. Ultimately, the rise in income and wealth inequality to some extent is an economic disenfranchisement of the masses to the benefit of the few. However in democracies this is rarely tolerated forever.
One of the key forces helping plutonomists over the last 20 years has been the rise in the profit share – the flip side of the fall in the wage share in GDP. As plutonomists or capitalists tend to be long the profit share, they have benefited from trends like globalization and the productivity revolution, disproportionately. However, labor has, relatively speaking, lost out.
We see the biggest threat to plutonomy as coming from a rise in political demands to reduce income inequality, spread the wealth more evenly, and challenge forces such as globalization which have benefited profit and wealth growth.
Globalization has come in for its fair share of attack of late. And political attention on immigration and protectionism is never far from the surface. As we suggested in our note in October last year, reactionary political forces are likely to rise as globalization persists and the losers in developed economies gain in numbers. To an extent we see this happening in Europe, for example, where the rise in the profit share (fall in the wage share) has come at the same time as the rise of right-wing, generally anti-immigration parties.
On the other hand, ageing populations in countries where there are developed and well-financed pension schemes, and a big equity component in these, are probably more tolerant of a rising profit share. As individuals move from being workers to retirees, their incomes shift from being earned as wages, to dividends and savings, which are more linked to profits. This would suggest that in the UK and US for example, demographics might support – politically – a higher profit share, though this might not hold true, for example, in a country like France.
So, is plutonomy under threat politically? We are keeping an eye on this one. At the moment, it is too early to make this call. Calls for protectionism and an end to immigration grow louder by the day, but they are difficult to measure. But a substantial percentage of Americans are in favor of repealing the estate tax (though only 2%, roughly, will ever pay it), which does not resonate as a population determined to destroy wealth inequality. The political process is the greatest threat to plutonomy. We don’t see it as a threat today in most countries. But we are alert to changes here.
Back in 2006 Citi ultimately ended up being very, very wrong, however in a way that ultimately made the rich whose financial paper wealth was about to disappear even richer, courtesy of the biggest taxpayer-funded wealth transfer in history. As a result those who were merely uber rich a decade ago have been wealthier (if only on paper).
Our own view is that the rich are likely to keep getting even richer, and enjoy an even greater share of the wealth pie over the coming years. We think rising profit margins will keep profit growth strong, and equities are at any rate undervalued. And the rich tend to be disproportionately exposed to the equity markets. While there are challenges to this, not least through populations/the political process demanding a more “equitable” share of the wealth, in the short term we think the trend of the rich getting richer is likely to persist. Plutonomy related stocks should, we think, continue to see strong demand and inflation-beating pricing power.
Here, Citi was absolutely spot-on accurate. However, the question now stands: since there is a finite amount of wealth that can be transferred from the expiring global middle class, and since everything above that is merely dilution from excess printing of fiat money, inquiring minds want to know: is the world financial system due for another massive collapse, one which will even further accelerate the wealth redistribution, or is the world's population so zombified that nothing can ever possibly tips the scales ever again, and the lesson from the French revolution, when an unprecedented amount of wealth and power was held by a precious few, have been forever lost on the world and its citizens?
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Indubitably.
In that order?
Complete hypocracy. Didn't Citi just rent out space on Capital Hill, so the pimps could be closer to their whores?
I'd love to see a chart on exactly who these "uber rich" (.01%) are.
Sex, race, religion... just curious.
Male, white, First Church of the Pharisee.
i'd love to see the top 10 investments in order of the ubber rich
As I understand it, they're heavy into Grey Poupon.
But of course.
Last time around they put them all in re-education camps
White woman, shoots at random people, aims gun at cops after car chase, lives to tell about it
OK, Just KEEP BUYING Fine Art, Tiffany And GOLD, Rich Bitchies...
... Bullish On Keynesian PLUTONOMY
Folks... GOLDmans Sack Really Is The Centre Of Our Universe.
Fucking gameplayers. Treat the human race as a zero-sum game, and yeah, you can benefit, and when it goes to shit, you can say this. It didn't have to be this way. But we listen to these same people time and time again, because we want to prevent corrections. I'm fucking sick of it. I guess that's how we determine the path of our species, is letting these parasites command it. Hooray, for us! Answer me this: Since when does ANYONE connected to the financial markets have any say on what is good for us? I'm sick of ZH and its bullshit traders that are looking for the hedge or for the trade in this "market" that will make them money. It is more about fiat and less about "wealth" (remember that term?)...nothing about what is good for society. GFYS. I don't give a shit about what can make me money in 24 hrs or what is the good hedge. It is all rigged and if you are trying to "game" it, you are participating in it. GET OUT, FFS.
Got boiled rope?
Folks, is all there black on white in plain text, under this paragraph:
What could go wrong?
Beyond war, inflation, the end of the technology/productivity wave, and financial collapse, we think the most potent and short-term threat would be societies demanding a more 'equitable' share of wealth.
Koreans are behind all of Americans suffering. The chosenite parasitc Federal Reserve counterfeiting criminals and friends have our best interests at heart. Cops are here to protect us from ourselves because we're all terrorists that believe in freedom. I hope China, Russia And India go back to the Gold Standard sooner rather than later. There will be blood in the streets if the chosenites actually have to get jobs.
http://www.realjewnews.com/?p=670
'Society' can demand all it wants, it won't matter. History will look back on this time as the rise of the landsraad and the great 'houses' of this planet. Technology will propel the plutocrats to dominion over all except a few rag-tag fremen living on the fringe.
I'm not trying to game it, I'm just trying figure out WTF is going on.
One of the 'perks' of my employment at a much younger age was 'medical insurance' provided by my employer via 'Travelers' Group' (the 'UMBRELLA' is an ongoing patent, by the way). Along came deregulation, and buyouts, and leveraged buyouts, and 'hostile takeovers', and all that shit.
NOW, some multinational bankster conglomerate going by the name 'CITI' (like you wouldn't know they are disguising their location in The City Of Fucking London, Incorporated by changing the name to some cutesy-looking OFFICIAL spelling) is talking about 'plutonomy' (as if it's a fucking SCIENCE). "When I was attending Keynes University, I majored in Plutonomy, and minored in Propaganda (while attending Bernays Hall)."
REALLY?
INFLATION and FINANCIAL COLLAPSE 'COULD' end 'GLOBAL PLUTONOMY'?
Choke on your own bile, 'Citigroup'!
Ajay Kapur and Citi were and are right. They were right in 2006. They are right now. The proof is in the pudding. Their net worth has followed an exponential curve while everyone else's is following an inverse of 1/x curve.
It will take longer for them to get their comeuppance. It took a long time for the French revolution to happen. The serfs did not have bread then while now the nation has a surplus of Food stamps. When the empire gets the resources from Russia they will be able to kick the can a whole lot longer. The question is how hard it will be to finally get the commodities from Russia et. al.
The empire is just getting started. It will force the whole world to do its bidding while it steals and pillages from everyone.
Sure, the fraud and pillaging cannot and and therefore will not last and no reserve currency lasts forever, but when Tyler puts up the graphs of the past reserve currencies, all of them lasted at least 150-200 years. How long has the dollar been a reserve currency? The dollar began its currency hegemony when the British pound lost its status. That was approx at the end of WWI. A hundred years ago. That means the U.S. has at least another 80-100 years to go.
Pure fiat currencies have lasted about 40 years.
Citigroup is HQ'd in New York, and represents (with GS, JPM and one or two corporations like GE) what most of the world really really doesn't like about America.
"... what most of the world really really doesn't like about America."
Google and Apple are both headquartered in USofA, but it doesn't seem much tax is being payed there?
"Male, white, First Church of the Pharisee."
As representative of Sadducees local (number 666), I find your comment highly offensive. My female Black/Mexican single mother lawyer will be in contact with your male white lawyer. They'll do lunch together (they'll bill us).
Sincerely,
Pope Francis The Pedophile-Protector
P.S.
The Queen's mum's lunch and annual Grouse hunt is scheduled for the usual time and date, at Avon-on-the-Thames, The City. I look forward to seeing you.
+1
Yet, when I criticize anything from capitalist excesses to white privilege on these forums, I tend to get downvoted in large numbers and am half-accused of being a "race traitor". Go figure.
Maybe that is because none of this is really race driven. It is driven by evil men and women. Leave race out of your discussion or it will ALWAYS be a problem. If you are anti-white or anti-Jew maybe it is time you ask yourself why you're a racist?
On Demographics of the .01%:
..."First Church of the Pharisee."
Yeah, the fact that some of the evil uber wealthy are Jews DEFINTIELY means that all things Jewish are worthy of destruction too, eh? Because these evil rich are so into their faith in God (snicker), there is no way that the bad ones are just bad people who happen to be of Jewish descent. PLEASE don't reference the "protocolas of the Elders of Zion" or some other book about the Jews plan to control the world.
You know, per capita Jewa have given the world an uncanny number of technological and medical breakthroughs too. Maybe this was just sour grapes to you?
i will guess there's no Buddhists.
That's anti-Semitic
Our existence is anti-Semitic.
Obongo is pro-semitic, he loves semen.
Names, addresses...no reason...just curious.
Daily routines, schedules, etc.......
Would love to see their political alignmNts as well.,
you spelled dietary requirements wrong.
Who are the 0.01%, you ask? They are Oligarachs and Aristocrats. Seriously... A-ri-sto-crats.
Don't believe me? Then you connect the dots in this simple skill-testing question...
Q: Who is the largest single shareholder in Citi, and has been for a long time? Hint: a large, ME oil kingdom. Note that this makes them a leveraged Shareholder of the Fed also.
They're the chosen ones
The Gulf Arab emirate of Abu Dhabi bought a $7.5 billion stake in Citigroup, America’s largest bank, on Nov. 27, 2007. Abu Dhabi is now Citigroup’s largest shareholder, surpassing Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who bought his shares during the mortgage crisis in 1991.
"I'd love to see a chart on exactly who these "uber rich" (.01%) are.
Sex, race, religion... just curious."
I'd like to see their NAMES .
There's a few of us that would like addresses as well.
Sex? When you are uber-rich what the hell else to you have to do with your time?
Race? The uber-rich don't race...they stroll.
Religion? Money. Duh.
This article is propaganda, plain and simple.
It is meant to enrage the socialist crowds by enacting the old economy being a zero-sum game fallacy.
There is no point in questioning its meaning as it is merely here to make you mad and keep you stuck in that emotional and irrational state of mind. They want you incapable of thinking and irrational.
They could have titled the piece "how we just made a fortune out of race riots....AND YOU CAN TOO!" (now make sure everything remains Black vs White media vixens...and through in a good dose of Manichean Struggle too...but don't make it too obvious that's all.)
I mean seriously...this is really sad. "Never has so little been owed to so few by so many.". Its like Financial D-day and " the rest of America" (and the world perhaps too)...we all have been stuck on Omaha Beach.
Inequality is one thing but the lack of job creation is what is tearing the country apart in my view.
Respect for work as well...instead of a society that only knows how to fire and downsize...well, as Machiavelli said "look to the result."
Why not throw torture in too just to let everyone know how you really feel....
Honestly, the only thing that would have to be done to break their grip on the economy would be for a critical mass of the population to pull away from the dollar system within the continental US.
Once that is accomplished, there is nothing the plutocrats can do outside of starting a Civil War that they have no real chance of winning, as the entire world is watching what is going on there. I have spoken with people from around the planet so far and the only people that don't seem to understand that the US banking system are the enemy are the sheep that believe the crap about ISIS and live in the US.
The rest of the planet is wondering when the Americans will wake up and do something about this mess.
Never, Nid
excellent remark, NidStyles. here, the article states:
"However, the question now stands: since there is a finite amount of wealth that can be transferred from the expiring global middle class, and since everything above that is merely dilution from excess printing of fiat money, inquiring minds want to know: is the world financial system due for another massive collapse, one which will even further accelerate the wealth redistribution, or is the world's population so zombified that nothing can ever possibly tips the scales ever again, and the lesson from the French revolution, when an unprecedented amount of wealth and power was held by a precious few, have been forever lost on the world and its citizens?"
bogus. the global middle class is rising and thriving. it's numbers are in the hundred of millions. it's just that the global middle class has little to do with the American middle class
we have a mixed planetary economy. the global and the local. the first one is growing at the expenses of the second ones
the "winners" of the first one win big, thanks to it's size. think Microsoft or Apple or Hollywood, or just whatever you can do that has a billion-strong customership. hence the bigger disparity in wealth. a result of globalization
"It is meant to enrage the socialist crowds by enacting the old economy being a zero-sum game fallacy."
I didn't get that vibe at all from the post. All I got out of it was that corporatism is what caused all of this mess combined with an ignorant and useless public who did nothing to stop it.
The masses get their bread (ETB cards) and circus, so they stay placated and inebriated. The oligarchs/"uber-rich" have purchased the federal govt. resulting in cart blanche to siphon real wealth + paper wealth away from the productive (middle) class.
The productive slice of America is getting thinner and thinner. As this continues the vast majority are settling into the non-productive lower class and a tiny minority moved to the upper class. Basically nothing is going to change socially or politically in America until the bread and circus cease and it becomes too painful not to get angry and do something. Naturally, that something will be influenced by propaganda and redirected in the wrong direction.
So, long story short there is no end in sight and it's all looking quite negative for the vast majority Americans. I for one am dumping dollars and exchanging it for real, tangible wealth.
While you are looking for vibes, I read what it was actually saying and the sentence structure. This article was written as a dialectic. It never once made any of it's assertions logically, and provided no evidence for it's claims. This article was meant for the low brow crowd, which is primarily socialist.
There are no high brow socialists, just high brow would be tyrants.
for fuck's sake - no one with a substantial math or physics background talks about a zero sum game.
The rich get richer because they have more capital in the first place.
The super rich just print the fucking fiat.
Plazidow said: "...Didn't Citi just rent out space on Capital Hill, so the pimps could be closer to their whores?"
Exactly, fucking Citigroup, bailed out on the taxpayer dime by the complicit TRAITORS in CONgress and the FED and the Treasury Department and the Justus Department that couldn't summon the will to arrest one single fucking real crook on Wall Street.
There is such a blood debt to be paid that it would make the desolation by the Almighty of Sodom and Gomorrah look like a drone strike on a Middle East wedding.
A rising turd lifts all boats
And a bowing serf cleans all boats. The surf might be Up, but the serfs aren't.
A plugged toilet lowers the new guy's morale ( since he has to clean it up ).
Long Pitchforks.!
speaking of long your avatar has my sundial reading high noon.
Soul Glow
Citibank, a Plutonomy bank, talking about Plutonomy by others?
Are we supposed to take this ‘paper’ seriously?
Or is this written for a role by a comedian?
History may not necessarily repeat, nor rhyme.
BUT the veneer of "civilisation" is getting VERY thin, with many, many holes starting to appear. 2015 may well turn out to be "just another year" of dwindling expectations, dwindling disposable income, ever-rising costs of essentials (food, energy, shelter), however there WILL be a point at which the proverbial "Camel's back" can take no more, and once that point is passed, there will be no return to today's "normality".
What happens then? Difficult to predict, but it will certainly not be a "happy time" for anyone, wealthy, "middling along", or poor.
Good observation.
Actually, I have 2015 as ‘very’ good for the dollar.
and some stocks
Maybe we'll see ballistic stocks (Glock, S&W, etc) "go ballistic"!!
Parrotile
2014 is not over yet. Still time for a bank holiday or a war. Don't put on your tux yet.
When does FED closes its books???
Doesn't CITI have that guy that said GOLD was in a 6 thousand year bubble?
Matter of factly, they are bang on. The rest of the world turns their back enough on the dollar to cause a tsunami of USD to come home causing inflation and collapse and as it happens the West starts WW3.
Canadian Dirtlump
That day is coming when the world will dump the dollar for whatever new currencies needed to buy the oil.
Followed by the collapse of the US government (can’t finance its debt and its citizens are bankrupted and unemployed) and high interest rates (to suck up all those dollars).
Thereafter, the politicians and the masses will learn the final hard lesson: That we live in a finite planet; so, less and less will be available as desperation sets in.
The human animal will be craving for the basic things as they descend into chaos.
The rest of the world can send USDs home and NO inflation would occur. The Fed would buy up those dollars and send them into their blackhole, while the Government would adjust their numbers to prove inflation is too low. We're five years into this mess, and Fed massaging is the new normal.
HulkHogan
There isn’t anything normal. And nothing new that the Fed is doing.
As the Petrodollar will have to be enforced by wars;
US lifestyle utopia will collapse from within.
Then, the new normal at the Fed will be: Run for cover.
my neighbor's step-mother makes $68 hourly on the laptop . She has been out of work for 10 months but last month her pay check was $15196 just working on the laptop for a few hours. try here... www.works3.com
Once again, a real question to my felon Z-hedgers.
I don't have to do this, it's a real choice, I'm in pretty decent circumstances.
I'm considering refinancing my house. We plan to die here, so it's not a flip or other sort of re-fi. We've been here 16 years.
We bought this particular shithole in 1998 for $75,000. We only have the mortgage, never refinanced and are paying 7.5%. Payments $525.00 plus escrow and current balance is $37,921. Zillow has present value at $156,000.
We have a few things we'd like to do. Pay for Funerals, get tile in house, pay off car loan of $18k at 18%.
We're being offered 3.85% on $100,000 and I can pay that off in five years (if nothing changes).
Should I take the refi to buy gold, silver, lead, tile and a buffer?
Or should I continue to pay three months of mortgage every two months?
At this point, I almost feel like my best moral choice is to take the $100k, burn the house, and walk away. But I'm not that sort of person...but you get my drift. First purchase would be $20k in gold, next getting tile (about $7,500), then funeral cost ($15,000). The rest paid back to mortgage minus $20k for hedge.
Closing date is around 01/05/2015.
Where am I fucked up?
buy land.
grow food.
Wonder what all tose people that have been fighting the Fed since 2009 and stackin´ are thinking. Next year will be better?
Systemic neoliberal “rationalism” recruited to prepare us for nuclear war?
This site has been saying for some time now that everything is going to go to pot. Frankly I agree, however, the time table for said economic collapse to take place have never been clear to me or I’m sure to anyone. My guess is anywhere from five to ten years. However, this website, especially recently, has hinted at timelines much sooner than that. Again, I agree with the reasons as to why and that it will happen but really that soon?
LOL hang around it gets better errr worse and throw out your teevee FAST ;)
I can say assuredly that there were banks caught long oil that will get margin called over the next quarter. There will likely be large bankrupcies happened by that. Also the drop in price will affect jobs on pipelines everywhere, not only in America. Global unemployment will likely rise. And the price drop won't help savings much that savings rates have plummeted globally.
You've been writing this same type of thing as a comment to every story, but there is no way banks have large enough positions in oil to be affected by the price change. If you're looking for fallout from the price drop, wait until Russia sends its Black Ops into Saudi Arabia to blow up some oil fields.
hedge funds do.
gues who invests in them...
Its been coming since 1971,accelerating from 2001.
Taken a little time to build a consensus on how to deal with the rabid dog the US has become.
Finally everything is in place, and the trigger will be pulled when it best suits .
Could be tonight, could be anytime.Don't be in too much of a hurry to see it close up.
I don't think any of us are truly ready for whats about to happen,enjoy any interlude thats
left.
Seems Lady C and I will be spending time with our Governor on New Years Eve.I plan to ask him outright
about his plans.
best part: " Equity multiples appear too low."
So martin armstrong nailed it again and citi rips him off
We know this is going to end (change) sometime in the future. No one knows when and if someone guesses correctly they will be hailed as a genius.
Meanwhile they keep regurgitating articles based on opinion and information provided by those who provide information to both sides, optimists and pessimists.
May as well enjoy what life has to offer while we have it.
inquiring minds want to know: is the world financial system due for another massive collapse, one which will even further accelerate the wealth redistribution, or is the world's population so zombified that nothing can ever possibly tips the scales ever again, and the lesson from the French revolution, when an unprecedented amount of wealth and power was held by a precious few, have been forever lost on the world and its citizens?
You really had to ask ????????? No it must be something else, has to be right? right?
/s or not?
If war means a savage, heads on stakes kind of war against the bankers and elite, then I agree! Where do we sign up?
You already did sign up you're here aren't you :)
I think the elites are wise to all of this...they have the money to be wise to it. The only minor problem they have is that everything they want to do needs to be accomplished by plebes/awake sheep who are onto them but want a piece. I am long in that small awake sheep market but very short the actual very large sheep market...that other 99%.
The only thing that would cause a war is applying excessive sanctions on a country and then manipulating global markets to crash that country's major exports and to collapse that country's currency.
Otherwise the next war will be fought on the streets of Amerika between 'cop gangs' and various 'street gangs' over diminishing resources within the US.
> The only thing that would cause a war is applying excessive sanctions on a country and then manipulating global markets to crash that country's major exports and to collapse that country's currency.
Not that the USA would ever do anything like that, seeing as "The Executive" are so keen to promote the USA as the "Global bastion of decency, honesty and integrity" . . . . .
How do you get rid of the taste of bile you must have in your
mouth after that ?
Thats way above dry on the sarc scale.
What, me sarcastic??
I "believe" everything the Aussie / US / EU / Global MSM shove in my direction, 'cause it's TRUE you know - "they" are always looking after "Our" interests.
(And if you believe THAT please forward me your VISA card number - I've got a great deal on "slightly used" bridges you'd kill yourself for missing out on . . . . . ! !)
Here's a band-aid for your asshole...
digesting that pile of shit and regurgitating it without gagging is going to have an effect on your system.
Don't take bites that big, jebus cripes!. It's bad for your system (and it gags the shit out of the rest of us watching!).
Amazing what one or two bottles of Mylanta Extra - Minty will achieve . . . :-)
You probably get the overall (correct) idea that most of us on ZH don't even notice the MSM. My ONLY use of "traditional" TV is for the long-term weather forecasts, and occasional (decent) movies, and a display device for our pretty large Wildlife / Factual DVD collection. I have NEVER (as in not ever during my entire life) bought a newspaper. Specialist magazines, yes. Newspapers - no.
Don't seem to have missed out on anything of real (as against imaginary / "popularised") significance . . . .
Look who's talking.
Walter Bigelow Wriston (August 3, 1919 – January 19, 2005) was a banker and former chairman and CEO of Citicorp. As chief executive of Citibank / Citicorp (later Citigroup) from 1967 to 1984, Wriston was widely regarded as the single most influential commercial banker of his time. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Wriston)
In 1992, Walter Wriston finally announces the total dominance of neoliberalism in his book "The twilight of Sovereignty", while the same year, the chairman of the "Federal" Reserve, Alan Greenspan, "warns" the newly elected president Bill Clinton, to withdraw his campaign commitments for social benefits, as he claimed that, the deficit was reached dangerous levels.
http://www.thewatcherfiles.com/cooper/secret_government.htm
"reactionary political forces are likely to rise as globalization persists and the losers in developed economies gain in numbers. To an extent we see this happening in Europe, for example, where the rise in the profit share (fall in the wage share) has come at the same time as the rise of right-wing, generally anti-immigration parties."
Greece?
Not sure if it's something on my end, but I can rarely visit this site anymore without being jumped around (page switches on me and scroller over works or underworks) and popups that never go away. I used to enjoy reading over here but can't seem to get in much anymore.
I use adblock plus with firefox https://adblockplus.org/en/
adblockplus.org cured my ailments that you described. It's free, give it a shot.
dup
You should feel truly priveledged to be targeted in the ways you describe.
NOW:
If you can raise your head up, and find out what virus has infected your machine, and take positive action against it; and eradicate the shit that has infected your machine, and once again realize that you are the master of your machine: Only THEN will you overcome this malady, and once more be free to post and view.
http://malwaretips.com/blogs/remove-pws-zbot-virus/
Linux or windoze, then
Addblock plus, Noscript, Ghostery and Collusion.
Well this certainly can't make the 'news'.
Once Japan and Europe get things straightened out then the U.K. will decide to remain in the fold and putin will eventually give up.
President obama is playing chess you see. These other sociopths are merely playing checkers.
It's all just a game.
I'll bet you're that guy in the left turn lane with two cars behind him who waits until the light turns yellow.
I'm the guy that will throw two pennies at you if you are the third car to make a left turn on a yellow/red light when my green left turn arrow comes on, just two give you my two cents on your shitty impatient driving... or at least I used to, before I went rural.
Tink Tink
Wow, what a tool you are!
You said: "President obama is playing chess you see. These other sociopths are merely playing checkers."
Obama is the one playing checkers versus others playing chess. Obama has no knowledge of chess.
Don't be cruel!
The rest of the world is playing Vulcan Chess.
Obama's playing Uno.
Trifecta?
Ajay Kapur....You are on the list.
When the bread and circus run out, then the masses will demand change.
During the housing b00m analysts said: "Buy banks, can't go wrong." LOL
It's the new normal. B-cups told everyone. Now eat your fuckn' peas
B-cups?
My preference is Double-D's!!
So, is plutonomy under threat politically?
Llyod Blankfein and the Jamie Dimon's of the world all looking for an exit strategy. Fortunately, there is no exit strategy. You reap what you sowed.
If plutocrats are the testers testing us, does that make us testes? If said mega-crises is required to find the balls of the middle class they will be located and found to be very, very large and angry.
Please permit me to repeat myself:
The Powers That Be have their ducks in a row. Their Program is mature and its implementation is well advanced.
The Program:
1. Get control of central banks.
2. Take control of emerging market governments through massive loans where it is apparent that the governments will not be able to repay and then will be subject to control through capital ;markets or through the International Monetary Fund. Use the IMF "privatization" and "austerity" programs to take control of national assets and sell them to cronies at low prices.
3. Use intelligence services to manipulate or destabilize/overthrow governments that do not cooperate with The Program. Use assassinations and torture where considered advantageous. If felt necessary, use national militaries to invade and overthrow uncooperative governments. Extend NATO use and control of countries.
4. Continue Fed money-printing in various forms, accumulating more government debt instruments in the central banks. Inflate stock and bond markets via QE funding. Get the European Central Bank and all other central banks to engage in purchase of government debt and massive money-printing as well. Ensure that central bank operations are secret, and their balance sheets are not disclosed except to TPTB. Any information released by central banks is to be carefully engineered for political effect.
5. Siphon off most of the QE funds and government debt instruments for the 1% through market manipulation and crony capitalism.
6. Provide enough unemployment benefits and welfare programs to keep the 99% from revolting. Bombard the public with messages of economic recovery, wealth creation, low inflation, "green shoots" and "lift off" no matter what the facts are.
7. Keep interest rates at zero or near-zero for governments and favored cronies to encourage carry trades, speculative investments, deficit budgeting, and social program spending, while preventing government default from inability to cover interest costs on debt. Preach Modern Monetary Theory to the public, to get the public to accept infinite QE and the idea that returns of zero% or near zero% on monies lent, bonds, and savings will be the new normal.
8. Implement negative interest rates for depositors to encourage spending and to control capital flows where necessary for exchange rate control.
9. Repeal Dodd-Frank controls on derivative creation by Wall Street, and ensure the public purse is obligated to cover Wall Street losses. Bring in rules that state that bank deposits form part of a bank's capital, and mandate bail-ins in case of bank crises. Ensure that no individual executive of a Wall Street Bank, of a London City bank, or a central bank, is liable for criminal prosecution.
10. Manipulate Precious Metal prices through futures markets to ensure prices stay low, effectively decoupling PM prices from currency value variations caused by rampant money-printing. Accumulate physical PMs for own accounts.
11. Militarize the local police forces and organize them to operate under federal direction in case of civil unrest. Ensure police are immune to prosecution for shooting citizens.
12. Remove constitutional rights of assembly and free speech by statute, and get judges to limit civil rights. Ensure that governmental authorities have the right and power to "disappear" any person and to kill or imprison that person without legal recourse or record kept of "disappearances".
13. Empower governmental authorities to seize private assets on any pretense, and leave the citizenry no effective remedy for recovery of seized assets.
14. Set legal precedents to allow the rich to overwhelm the election process with advertising.
15. Dumb down education to ensure that citizens are unable to make critical analyses of political campaign statements or government policies and actions,
16. Concentrate control of mass media in cronies. Place government operatives in all newsrooms and editorial boards. Disallow investigative reporting. Issue statements from government "information" departments to present uniform narratives and keep public discourse on prearranged topics. Direct energies of social activists into controversies which do not threaten control by the power elite, such as feminism, colored peoples' rights, welfare reform, immigration reform, etc.
17. Provide television and other mass media at minimum expense or free, overwhelming the public attention with soap operas, sports, and artificial dramatic productions that distract the public's attention from important issues. Glorify sports heroes and media stars.
18. Propagandize patriotism in favor of the status quo and power elites. Stifle all dissent outside of prearranged controversies. Shame label all dissenters as "terrorists", "conspiracy theorists", or "truthers", etc. Stifle all meaningful dissent.
19. Glorify the military.
20. Hype external threats through propaganda and false flags.
21. Buy up all worthwhile assets with the fiat currency and government debt instruments that have been accumulated. Move assets to secure tax havens where possible. Set up secure bases for retreat in case of civil uprisings. Ensure private security forces are engaged to provide safety. Ensure local police and military forces are prearranged to control unruly public.
22. Expect fiat currencies to become worthless. When fiat currencies collapse, set up new commodity-backed currencies.
23. Ensure networks in place to continue control of world economy and financial structures by the elite.
Note that TPTB are now so confident of their control that they are not even bothering to conceal their control of Congress or the amendments of CRomnibus prepared by Citi. Whistle blowers such as Elizabeth Warren are ignored.
Um, seems like you nailed it. Are you one of Them?
no mention of poison
You overloooked one - Divide and Conquer.
Import unassimilable and/or un or underemployable 3d world immigrants into formelry culturally homogenous 1st world countries as a means of sowing social discontent. The subsequent cultural frictions will keep the public distracted from all of the above, with an added benefit of cheaper labor.
Label any and all opposition to these poilicies as racist or bigoted.
Yes, but I would call it Divide and Manage -
The 3rd world diversity brought into 1st world countries causes, as you say, cultural frictions. But this is good news for the Bureaucratic Class (a.k.a government) as it gives them the opportunity to "manage diversity".
Hence we need the EEOC, Justice Dept. of Civil Rights, and as a last resort, a militarized police force to keep the peace between the various ethnic groups.
Also helps with their selective breeding programs. Smart, honorable whites are the people they are most afraid of, so they have to be robbed and diluted, even as Wiggers are selected for.
Here's another item for the list:
-Ensure that only sociopaths can rise to positions of power. This can be done with the help of the NSA getting dirt on everyone, and any honest contenders can be destroyed over minor issues. It can also also be done with an escalating sequence of targeted honeytraps, often involving pedophilia and even child sacrifice. Those who take the bait will be owned forever, but that is not really a problem, because they have already proven themselves to be sociopathic enough not to care about pimping out their country. http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/12/20/very-very-bad-things/
-Just when everything is about to fall apart, start WWIII so as to shift the blame. Try to wipe out America, Russia, and Europe by getting them to fight each other (see that white people thing)
Good list except 2. IMF is now toothless to control EM nations. The Washington Consensus has been blown off after the last crash with EM countries largely having reserves and in some case net creditors.
However, US has perhaps a more potent weapon in the global FX market in keeping EM exchange rates high so that the huge US$ debt could be contained.
Allow and encourage high fat menu and cheap meals of worthless salt and sugary foods. And if necessary discontinue war on drugs
Defeat.
Find the one individual that actually reflects the values of Americans.
Elect as President.
Call a Meeting for all the Top World's Bankers down to the lesser Vice Presidents.
Machine-gun them all as you are giving State of the Disunion Speech.
Machine-gun all in attendance, strangle those off-site. Kill them all.
Call for new national elections.
Surrender to USMC.
It's my fantasy, and it's how I'd like it.
Kiss my ass.
Fuck!
Al, you nailed every fintisimal aspect of what's happening. You should compile that into a story for Playboy or People Magazine and you'd obviously need to dumb it down to suit.
(I was gonna write "write a book" but most people who read books already know what's going on)
"Confessions of an Economic Hitman" + "The Grand Chessboard" = "Brave New World"
global pandemic?
climate change?
revolution?
electromagnetic pulse?
volcano?
meteor?
rogue hacker?
Well, at least Citi is honest.
We glorify torture not the military.
"Selfless sacrifice" let alone honor or integrity ain't what's greasing the wheels here. We'll see about Russia though. "You don't just walk in there."
iMaintaining law and order both domestically and internationally will continue to be the primary government pursuit. This is where the middle class will be drawn to stay in the middle class.
Primary Dealers| February, 11 2014
Bank of Nova Scotia, New York Agency
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies LLC
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
RBS Securities Inc.
SG Americas Securities, LLC
TD Securities (USA) LLC
UBS Securities LLC
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers.html
Someone at Citi is going to be sucking down his morning protein drink donated by male child trafficking pedophile rings in US/Global Operations.
Wow! Almost amusing, if not so incredibly true and sick. A total oligarchy and proud of it! The dumbed down society perfectly content with a new I-Phone, HDTV and SUV, all paid for with debt. The wealthy just sit back and laugh as the Fed bankers hand them billions of $$ and claim the ‘trickle-down’ will help the little people too. Complete control of the government now. “It is a democracy, everyone gets one vote!” they love to say, knowing full well your vote is meaningless when the oligarchs own the congress and president. The masses don’t seem to care at all about the inequality. Bernays and Goebbels were right. Just keep repeating the same lies over and over. Tell the lemmings we need to go to war to spread democracy. The Russians are evil, we are good. Say otherwise, you are unpatriotic.
Keep the peace with EBT cards, welfare, and disability checks. Millions are happy to see their 401Ks soar month after month, and the $18T debt means nothing they are reminded daily. I see no change on the horizon. The Fed Bank may try to sneak a 25bps hike in 2015, telling everyone the economy has reached ‘escape velocity’. But, it is just so they have room to cut again.
Everything perfectly scripted. It is like ‘The Matrix’ only real. Total mind control of the masses.
I see you hitting on 'trickle down'...it does work in a truly capatilistic society with a republic form of government....neither of which has been had in this country for nearly 150+ years....
And the alternative structure you are suggesting?
Capitalism. Not Financialism. End the financial asset ponzi by taking gold exponential to rebalance real assets with financial assets.
Everything is perfectly scripted - most peoples lives are. I assume my coworkers are Christians, but their day just came and went and I heard only consumerism talk, zero spirituality. My request was for no gifts, just time shared and that was perfect. I feel sorry for most that don't even see the shackle around their leg. It's not like I have liberated myself completely, but knowing it is there allows the first step in the pursuit of freedom. Being awake to the grand scheme means being alienated from the common mindset, which is the majority.
Its not Plutonomy, it's Klepto Crony Fraudocratic Ponzi Plutopianism...
Too late to call a misdeal.
Indeed. Now the Pope wants to fight Global Warming. Another figure head who will get axed on the chopping block by bad PR thru falsehoods. Smell the irony when drinking your cup of tea tomorrow. Pope cannot control the sun nor how our universe is traveling in a helical spiral motion. Going above and below the pane.
Popes Regulation gone wild – Christmas lights are the next target of nanny state thinking
Suspicious0bservers - Welcome Video
So is it the top 0.1%, 0.01%, or 0.001%?
Have to know how large to make those guillotine baskets.
No guillotines please, we need them to clean sewers and stuff.
I am against the use of guillotines.
What's wrong with Guantanamo Bay, Bagram or Abu Ghraib where they specialize in raping children in front of their mothers or using dogs to rape prisoners?
None of this of course will happen. Hopefully there will simply be the justice of confiscation and incarceration and not retribution fuelled by hate and blood lust.
In a revolution justice (if any) tends to be macro, at the micro level mistakes are typically made, break a few eggs, not a tea party, and all that.
I remember these days. This was when people threw around the word "imbalances" as if it meant anything. Then when 2008 started, it was because of global imbalances. Fun times. Until it turned into a bank run and then it looked like every other bank run ever.
An interesting article. and presuming the story is raoughly accurate it certainly gives the sheep some smbelence where the fu-- we are at; and where we are headed without some show of anger from the muddled crowd.
There appears to be only one terrible move that can be made; and it will be placed upon us shortly. Milestones
Can someone please direct me as to whom, or what, to cheer for?
I'm feeling rather conflicted...
Iphone 7
yes, indeedy
"because subprime was contained" AND the Fed had just ceased publishing M3, where all the guaranteed hanky panky was to take place.
But now not to be seen.
"Present-day society is wholly based on the exploitation of the vast masses of the working class by a tiny minority of the population, the class of the landowners and that of the capitalists. It is a slave society, since the “free” workers, who all their life work for the capitalists, are “entitled” only to such means of subsistence as are essential for the maintenance of slaves who produce profit, for the safeguarding and perpetuation of capitalist slavery."
— Vladimir Lenin
People need to wake up to the fact that all -isms (capitalism, communism, fascism and socialism) are tools for dividing, manipualting and fleecing the decent worker and decent entrepreneur.
Communism gave nothing to Russians and "capitalism" is presently taking everything away from 99.99% of Americans.
I dare say that if we had freely circulating gold and silver, the size and need for government would be substantially diminished.