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Disappeared AirAsia Plane Likely "At Bottom Of Sea"; No Signal Detected

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One would have thought that more than half a year after the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia flight MH-370 airlines would have taken precautions to keep track of airplanes at any given moment. One would be wrong, and as the latest mystery surrounding AirAsia's missing jet deepens, it has become clear that like with its Malaysian predecessor, nobody has any clue where the plane may be, so the speculation begins. Cue Reuters, which reports that the plane "could be at the bottom of the sea after it was presumed to have crashed off the Indonesian coast, an official said on Monday, as countries around Asia sent ships and planes to help in the search effort."

The disappearance was quite unexpected, even to the pilots, as Flight QZ8501 did not even get a chance to issue a distress signal and disappeared over the Java Sea five minutes after requesting the change of course, which was refused because of heavy air traffic, officials said. What is just as surprising is that the airplane in question, an Airbus A320 has traditionally had a virtually spotless flight history: The plane that disappeared was delivered to AirAsia from the production line in October 2008. Powered by CFM 56-5B engines built by a joint venture of General Electric Co. and France’s Safran SA (SAF), the aircraft had accumulated approximately 23,000 flight hours in some 13,600 flights, Airbus said on its website.

According to Bloomberg, the A320 and the related A318, A319 and A321 have among the lowest accident rates of modern commercial aircraft, with a fatal crash in about 1 in every 7 million departures, according to a study published in August by Boeing Co. (BA) The last fatal accident involving an Airbus single-aisle plane was in 2010, when an A321 operated by Pakistani carrier Airblue crashed into rugged terrain in heavy rain, killing all 152 people on board.

So what likely happened? From Reuters:

"Based on our coordinates, we expect it is in the sea, so for now (we think) it is on the sea floor," Soelistyo, head of Indonesia's search and rescue agency, told reporters when asked about the missing plane's likely location.

 

A senior Indonesian civil aviation source told Reuters that authorities had the flight's radar data and were waiting for search and rescue teams to find debris before they started their investigation into the cause.

As previously reported, some of the early clues hinted at an airplane crash, and these are currently being investigated: Air force spokesman Hadi Tjahjanto said searchers were checking a report of an oil slick off the east coast of Belitung island, near where the plane lost contact. He also said searchers had picked up an emergency locator signal off the south of Borneo island but had been unable to pinpoint it.

Some more coverage from Bloomberg:

The first planes that reached the region where the AirAsia plane was last reported didn’t find any signs of the missing aircraft, Sutono, a communication director at the Indonesian search and rescue agency, said today. Searchers focused on an oil spill seen 100 nautical miles off Belitung island, Hadi Tjahjono, spokesman for Indonesia’s Airforce told reporters.

 

Objects spotted by one of the search planes later turned out to be unrelated to the aircraft, the Airforce said.

 

 

Shares of AirAsia dropped 8.5 percent in Kuala Lumpur trading, their biggest slide since 2011. While AirAsia is based in Sepang, Malaysia, it operates with subsidiaries and affiliates in different countries. The missing plane belonged to its Indonesian operations.

 

“We’re devastated, but we don’t know what’s happened yet,” Chief Executive Officer Tony Fernandes said at a press conference in Surabaya yesterday.

In any event, the search continues although the likelihood that it will have a more faborable outcome than the search for MH-370 is virtually nil:

The last signal from the plane was between the city of Pontianak on Borneo and the town of Tanjung Pandan on Belitung island. The search was initially concentrated around Belitung, Transport Minister Ignasius Jonan said earlier. Sulistyo said the search area had been widened to include the Karimata strait and land areas in western West Kalimantan.

 

Robert Mann, head of aviation consultant R.W. Mann & Co. in Port Washington, New York, said searchers missed crucial daylight hours because authorities in Indonesia took an hour and 38 minutes to classify the plane as missing.

 

“It’s the golden hour in an accident scene; you only have so many daylight hours,” he said in a phone interview.

 

AirAsia had no fatal crashes in its history of more than a decade of operations. The A320 has built a reputation as a sturdy workhorse, with more than 6,000 A320 family aircraft in service to date with over 300 operators.

Finally, for the visual learners:

 

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Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:14 | 5601102 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

Poor souls

but at least their fate is known

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:29 | 5601141 power steering
power steering's picture

Alien abduction part deux

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:39 | 5601166 Ahoy Polloi
Ahoy Polloi's picture

Fly Quantas bitchez!

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:42 | 5601171 PT
PT's picture

Must be the Rapture ...

Damn!  I knew I wasn't good enuff!

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:48 | 5601190 power steering
power steering's picture

The plane went with them? Maybe it's not you but that ratty old E-Z-Boy

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:56 | 5601203 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Remember, your seat cushion acts as a floatation device.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:25 | 5601284 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well, it looks like emergency locator beacons aren’t such a valuable addition to avionics nowadays and there is a big hole in the “Total Information Awareness” of certain increasingly repressive states.

They can tell you if granny texted you about her Christmas get together but they have no clue what happened to a 50 ton aluminum can hurtling through the skies.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:31 | 5601313 PT
PT's picture

Good thing they make 'em compulsory on little ultra-lites.  Maybe the big airlines got an exemption ...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:05 | 5601424 old naughty
Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:10 | 5601592 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

somethings not right thats a narrow body of water they would find debris, this is like being blown off, somthing nafarious going on

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:35 | 5601838 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

The report this morning is debris has been found.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:30 | 5601314 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Does anyone think that maybe someone is stealing these airplanes?  Change the paint, grind off the serial numbers, pop a fresh transponder in them, and voila! $100 million dollar airplane is yours..  How else can something so big disappear without a single seat cushion being found..

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:46 | 5601369 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Like a giant plane comes up behind them and swallows it. Then takes it to a secret underground base in a volcano in Japan.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:56 | 5601395 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

That seems more likely than a modern jet crashing in the modern world and leaving no trace.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:36 | 5601496 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

With its first patrols scheduled for the summer of 2014 aboard the newly revamped USS Ponce, the LaWS system represents the US Navy’s first attempt at fielding a high-energy laser weapon.

In the future, ships with greater electrical capacity will likely be home to even more powerful direct energy weapons, possibly even those capable of downing planes, missiles and even satellites

 

http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/7305/US-Navy-is-Set-Deploy-its-First-Laser-Weapon.aspx

 

Saturday, 8 March 2014 - MH370

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:01 | 5601408 PT
PT's picture

Shit!  I was at the pub, just last night, and some shady looking character wandered up to me and said, "Pssssstt, hey buddy.  Do you want to buy a cheap jumbo jet?"  I told him I was skint, finished my drink and went home to check my emails.

Blow me down, a Nigerian Prince was trying to emigrate and needed help loading his gold onto his new second-hand aeroplane.  It looks legit becoz he knew my email address and all.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:15 | 5601974 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

We Larry McDonnel'd some folks.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:56 | 5601207 PT
PT's picture

Good point.  Better add wings and a jet engine to this thing.  Yeee-haaar!!!

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:46 | 5601334 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

The Maylasian Triangle?

"The ocean floor in the Java Sea is flat and muddy, and rarely deeper than 60 meters (197 feet), according to Hans Berekoven, an amateur archaeologist who surveyed the area for oil prospects in the 1990s."

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:42 | 5601671 noben
noben's picture

In that case, it should be easy to locate with Sonar. Even fishing boats could do the job.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:57 | 5601726 MEFOBILLS
MEFOBILLS's picture

Virtually all of the Kennedy family were killed on numerlogically significant dates.  Also, the constellations were aligned in specific way, especially in accordance with Zohar and Kaballah mystery religion.

Maylaysia has been on the outs since the Asian Currency Crises, when they did things that made IMF look foolish.  Malaysia ignored the toxic nostrums of IMF and created their own template.

 The word cannot get out that countries are actually sovereign entities and hence own the legal power of their own money.  Money should serve the people of the country and not an alien cabal of private bankers - an international cabal in thrall to inherently psychopathological mental constructs.

It is also no secret that Malaysian government has been more outspoken than others especially at New World Order forums.  

Speak out and then you will be punished.  State airlines crashing and disappearing is a good way to attack the State.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 21:17 | 5603487 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Read about the BHUAP (Boeing Honeywell Uninterruptible Autopilot) or "Boeing Uninterruptable Autopilot" system on Wikipedia and be very concerned about who it is capable of taking over by full remote control any of these airliners. Lufthansa was so concerned at their planes capable of being taken over by unknown outside forces they spent billions in removing this capability. There is enough information available on-line on BHUAP to suggest a version of this system has being installed into Airbus since 1994. Imagine a pilot losing complete control of his aircraft to remote control using satellite. Who is at the other end and what nefarious purposes could this be used for?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:58 | 5601213 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

Oh when will they learn; muslims and airliners dont mix

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:33 | 5601492 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Muslims and anything don't mix.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:31 | 5601643 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Another racist dumbfuck too dense to notice that once again, the overwhelming bulk of the casualties were Muslim civilians...

Newsflash, stupid - usually the people who are doing all the dying aren't the people who are the source of the problem.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:20 | 5601105 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Unbeiveable in this day and age anything like this could happen.....twice in one year in the same region. It seems they tracked aircraft better in the 1930s and at least they had a clue where Emilia Earhart's plane went down. Oh well, maybe 70 years from now we'll find out.

Say, aren't Airbuses equipped with watertight hatches and gear doors? That's what I remember from the one that went down in the Hudson a few years ago.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:32 | 5601149 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Going down in the Hudson River......because Canada geese had priority flight plans.......CFM engines again.......and the water ripped through the fuselage

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:11 | 5601252 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

That plane floated on the surface for a while and everyone got off of it.  This plane submerged, allegedly, without a trace.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:14 | 5601106 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Sounds ominously like Luca Brasi.

Sleeping with the fish?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:16 | 5601113 new game
new game's picture

this trend is not your friend...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:18 | 5601116 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Somebody got new Weapon?

China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, UK, Russia, USA, France, Australia...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:29 | 5601135 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

not UK......they have no new weapons - ask the army how old their kit is - older than the operators

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:46 | 5601182 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

But they're very good with a knife.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:19 | 5601118 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

Amazing how a truck fleet service can monitor everything about their vehicles no matter where they are but they cannot keep track of a multimillion dollar aircraft with ~160 people on it...

 

2nd plane to go missing, just maybe there is something else going on.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:45 | 5601175 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Bankers know when I'm off a penny in my account balance.....Walmart and other grocery stores track your every move down the aisle with devices...spies knows when i bend over to take a piss as well as the stream flow....and they have no clue where a giant hunk of metal with over a hundred people on board went?

 

Smells like month old Gulf Shrimp.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:50 | 5601189 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

They seem to know who picked up the flying bills in HK.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:56 | 5601200 PT
PT's picture

Good idea.  Always make sure something ordered from Amazon is on your plane.  Then if it goes missing we can just click on "Track your package"!

:P

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:17 | 5601275 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

When it comes to gov't it doesn't surprise, they have everyone's SS# and they can't even "track" who's unemployment ran out vs getting a job?  

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:42 | 5601850 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

None of the places you mentioned are under water. You should use some analogy that actually fits the subject.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:13 | 5601956 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

I labor under the apprehension that jet engines like these transmit data continuously when in use.  Yet in neither case did that piece of info surface in the MSM narrative.  It seems sorta relevant to this poor bastard.

Have to think that this is a .gov-coordinated job.  Including media control.  Ramp up the fear factor that little bit more.  So we beg for more .gov.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:45 | 5601179 PT
PT's picture

The odds of losing a plane might be one in a million, but that makes the odds of losing two planes one in a million million.  The odds of losing three planes?  One in a million million million !!! (errr, they're exclamation marks, not factorial symbols, just making sure!)

No way it cood happen again! ... cood it?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:52 | 5601196 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Gee, makes me wonder if Santa's sleigh made it home ok ?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:23 | 5601120 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

Nonsense

Commercial airliners can't just get lost

The plane has transponders, and so do the engines, relaying continous telemetric data as to their status

Add to that intelligence satellites in geodesic orbit capable of zooming in on a car plate covering every sensitive square foot of this globe (I'd call the Diego Garcia airbase sensitive)

What I find amazing is living in this twillight zone world where the MSN can peddle the nonsense that airliners can just disappear and not get called on it

 

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:36 | 5601155 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Do nowadays and see if the insurers really care.....

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:43 | 5601176 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Agreed.  Yesterday I had posted that another day may have been needed to locate the missing plane as the weather may have hampered efforts the day of the "crash". With a decent day for a search and to come up with nothing does not fit the script for a crash.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:49 | 5601187 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

Abso-effin-lutely.

They have no idea where it is.  Wow, what bullshit.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:55 | 5601201 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

My faith in the reliability of technology is not as strong as yours, particularly in a storm over a large body of water.

We oversell ourselves on GPS and so on.  It wouldn't be the first time someone is mislead by using google maps, etc.  What makes you think it doesn't happen on airplanes or ships and for that reason they simply 'vanish'?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:03 | 5601224 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

My brother in law is a pilot

He, as I, doesn't buy these disappearing airliner stories

Crash, yes, but disappear off the face of the globe with no trace, impossible mon ami

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:07 | 5601238 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

It happened, didn't it?  Like the Bermuda Triangle.  Just because we don't know where it is, doesn't mean it is not there.

I rest my case.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:27 | 5601300 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

The fact that "we" don't know where the missing airliners are does not imply that no one knows where the missing airliners are

And that is my point

TPTB know precisely where the missing airliners are, the redundancies built into tracking airliners make a parallel failure of all tracking systems a near zero probability

TPTB are keeping that information to themselves

Don't ask me for what purpose, I'm just a scientist, political machinations are not my cup of tea

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:41 | 5601347 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Let us assume you may be correct.  As someone noted earlier, where are the bits and pieces?

Maybe it is that new laser weapon technology some country is testing from space, may have disolved the airplane into pieces so small or it was hi jacked.

If it was not hi jacked or shot down, we must assume Mother nature took care of it.  Nothing is perfect in this world including redundant systems.  We can see this in everyday lives when secure systems are hacked or malware comes into being.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:53 | 5601387 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

I don't know where the airliner is and care not to theorize as to where it is or what might have happened to it

I merely point out that the odds of a parallel failure of all redundant tracking systems are infinitesimal

To assume otherwise would be ... illogical

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 15:36 | 5602258 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

Ya right! Like some boxcutters couldn't make it dissapear.

 

 

 

 

 

With mucho salt.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:29 | 5601303 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You are clearly a cherry picker...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:06 | 5601228 PT
PT's picture

1.  'cos airlines spend a shitload of money tracking the weather and have well established protocols concerning travel around weather.
2.  'cos tracking stuff ain't that hard any more, especially after a few high-profile disappearances and hi-jackings makes people jittery.  They put a million billion trivial security protocols in place but don't bother tracking the planes?  Even after 9/11?
3.  The only thing in your favour is "budgetary constraints".  That might explain it.  On second thought, "budgetary constraint" might be trotted out as the"excuse" but it sure as hell ain't the reason.  Ask the "feelers" at your airport.  Maybe they know where it went.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:26 | 5601131 New Kid
New Kid's picture

The tribe got in their third airline disaster before the year is out. They like to do things in threes for some reason.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:25 | 5601132 MansaMusa
MansaMusa's picture

Bottom of the sea floor???  Uhh how about above sea wreckage?   Unbelievable that this happened again , I say that's way more than an act of war!

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:29 | 5601139 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Need USOS Seaview and Commander Crane with the flying sub

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:34 | 5601147 power steering
power steering's picture

Starring Richard Baseheart

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:56 | 5601199 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Mansa
Yes indeed, everything sunk like a rock directly to the bottom. Seat cushions, clothing, stuffed animals, plasic cups ect ect. Just like a plane flew into the pentagon leaving nary a trace of wreckage.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:36 | 5601330 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Don't forget the amazing Pentalawn...

http://thewebfairy.com/killtown/pentalawn.html

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:20 | 5601996 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Where can I get me a lawn like that?

Great link.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:01 | 5601732 noben
noben's picture

Malaysia and Indonesia are very friendly with Russia and China.

So much so, that they have direct currency swaps in place, which bypass the USD.

This isn't just terrorism or state-sponsored terrorism, but plain state-terrorism, that is equivalent to an act of war.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:27 | 5601134 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The US must be scared - MH370 disappears over Pacific, MH317 disappears over Ukraine, and this one disappears over Pacific.......and nothing appears on US NRO satellites......bit like 9/11 really.....just happens .......and none of that hardware does anything for dollars

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:45 | 5601177 power steering
power steering's picture

Yes the Indian Ocean really is in North Dakota exactly where Gen'l Custer said it was

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:33 | 5601145 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Space beam weapons , incompetent pilots, or just a superbad storm? All I know is I'm not air traveling Malaysia..ever!

 

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:32 | 5601146 uncle_disgusting
uncle_disgusting's picture

Given the lack of mayday call, we may surmise that whatever took the plane did so very suddenly and catastrophically.

Hmm, not near Diego Garcia this time. So my money is on space bats. Or possibly a meteor.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:33 | 5601150 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Clearly a BUK rocket fired from Donetsk

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5601271 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Bath House: "These fuzzy satellite photos definitely show floating BUK launchers in the area, no doubt manned by Separatists working for the Kremlin who have invaded Malaysia. We must stop them!"

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:06 | 5601746 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Or a repeat of the USN's shoot-down of TWA 800?

(I doubt it.)

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:09 | 5601239 duo
duo's picture

Wake turbulence ripped the rudder off an Airbus in NY right after 9-11.  If wake turbulence can do that, then a thunderstorm certainly could.  Nobody really knows how these composite parts fatigue, unlike good old aluminum, which at least shows crack propogation on x-rays.

Just like salt is bad for Al, UV and heat are bad for composites.  If the tail came off, there would be a flat spin and the plane probably would have disintegrated quickly, but stuff would still be floating on the surface.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:45 | 5601368 websitefound
websitefound's picture

Radar info suggest a catastrophic stall trying to climb too fast too slowly, but in that scenario they should have got a mayday off.  The flat spin would also lend itself to someform of communication.  I'm going with a big old fashioned lightining strike hit something it shouldn't have.  

Lighting strike fusing everything would explain the lack of electronic signalling and radio.

CNN are suggesting it was an issue with Metric/Imperial conversion....wow didn't think CNN had further to fall in creditabiity stakes.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:00 | 5601406 duo
duo's picture

like ATC said 35000 ft and they tried to go to 35000 meters and stalled it?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:47 | 5602078 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

What a maroon! The pilot would not make that mistake. He and his copilot knew the aircraft was not able to fly at 35,000 METERS.

This should be a clue that you should stop watching FOX Jooze-Nooze.

"Fox News host Anna Kooiman speculated on Sunday that an AirAsia flight could have gone missing because international pilots were trained using the metric system."

http://www.sott.net/article/290688-For-real-Fox-host-speculates-metric-s...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:07 | 5601432 PT
PT's picture

Climbing stall?  Well that's all right then.  Everyone will be safe.  If ever things did go pear-shaped in an aircraft, I think I'd want to be in one of these.

http://www.popscreen.com/v/6HtzZ/Airbus-A320-Stall-Test--Video

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:49 | 5601533 ScottyB
ScottyB's picture

That was flight 587 and wake turbuence did not rip the tail off, pilot error did. It was found that the co-pilot, who was flying it at the time of the crash, was trained to make rudder over-corrections to gain control in the event of extreme turbulence. The multiple rudder over corrections placed such a load on the tail that it ripped off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_587

The crash could be the result of anything. Flight 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean (228 dead) and debris was found 3 days later. It was pilot error, they stalled the plane from 38,000 ft all the way down to the surface, and had no idea what was going on the entire time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:09 | 5601721 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Bullshit! The NTSB investigation of AA587 was another coverup. Modern fly-by-wire aircraft do not have stabilizer and rudder structural failures due to pilot input.

I think AA587 was connected to the false flag ops of 9-11 and didn't turn out in the way the perps expected, so they blamed the pilots. I believe it was caused by explosives in the tail.

It seems likely this accident may be weather related. The pilot's request for higher altitude suggests severe weather.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:47 | 5601157 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

They used to have a term called wind shear, apparently caused by violent opposing drafts resulting from unstable weather conditions and may be powerful enough to rip an airplane apart.

 

I remember reading about wind shear as being a concern, I think it was in airports such as Denver.  It used to bother me thinking about it when flying in and out of places where it may occur.  I haven't seen the term in print for years, probably because potential passengers like me wouldn't fly.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:51 | 5601194 PT
PT's picture

They also got rules, like "don't fly near big, black clouds", to help them avoid such problems.
But who knows?  Maybe the dollar was talking and the pilot was feeling lucky.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:57 | 5601210 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

The pilot saw a big black cloud and requested permission to change altitude, which was denied.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:08 | 5601241 PT
PT's picture

Well, I imagine that now someone will be asked to justify their decision.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5601262 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Must have been flying IFR then. I Follow Railroads

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:18 | 5601277 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Those instantaneous 200' drops are only a problem when the cocktail cart is out...

And when you're 199' or less above the landing strip.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:11 | 5601250 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It happened to a flight at Charlotte, NC years ago. I worked with a guy who was on a construction job when it happened. It turned out to be wind shear during the violent summer T-storms. Police and emergency personnel actually came to their work area and asked if there were any Viet Nam vets in the crew. My friend was army infantry in Nam. They were asked to volunteer to help with collecting remains. This crash site was horrible.

The storm actually ripped and slammed the plane apart as it neared CLT. There are supposedly wind-shear detectors nowadays. Maybe a pilot could tell us more.

Here is more info from TOI:

 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/AirAsia-flight-QZ...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:25 | 5601296 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So if it was ripped apart by a storm where's all the stuff that floats?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:37 | 5601336 PT
PT's picture

... and the tracking electronics and the emergency locator beacon?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:18 | 5601450 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The Ocean is very big, and an aircraft is very small.

You can lose contact and the plane can go pretty far before you know it is no longer on radar.

A good friend who was in the 18th Air Force/437th used to fly 141s on a scheduled trip every month.  The planes fly in threes. He said once they had an entire sortie of three vanish in the shallow waters maybe near the Azores, it's hard to remember and Jerry passed away years ago. Anyway, they knew the flight route. He was a coinfident flyer. "If your plane goes down, we will find you. I'm confident of that," he used to say.

They searched and never found a trace of the aircrafts. Even Jerry's plane was looking and he was not in SAR. The USAF was stumped. Jerry related the water in the search area was so shallow the planes should have been visible even if they had sunk.

This was a regular supply run, they went to Italy, Greece, Turkey and Riyadh, then dead-headed back.

SAR should begin to find something soon; the oil slick has been discovered in the approximate area.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:47 | 5601695 PT
PT's picture

Plane crash at 40 000 ft?  You got 50 seconds till the plane hits the ground, +/- air resistance.
900km/h?  = 15km / minute.  ~15km till plane hits the ground, +/- air resistance.

  Explosion?  ~ 225 km2 debris field, again +/- whatever the wind does with it, also + any "added velocities".
+/- radar error and pilot navigation deviation.

When did plane lose radar contact?  At what height was it flying at that point?  What speed?  Time between loss of radar contact and loss of plane?  If they can't find it soon then I'd suspect foul play.

GPS locators?  Engine monitoring?  How does commercial tracking compare with private aircraft tracking?  On the plus side, private aircraft doesn't travel too fast or too far.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:36 | 5601161 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Or parked in a hangar in Tel Aviv.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:43 | 5601174 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

  I have my issues with Europeans but commuter Airbus planes are not one of them.  Airbus planes are rock solid as far I can tell.  Something else is wrong here.        

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:11 | 5601246 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

"I have my issues with Europeans but commuter Airbus planes are not one of them.  Airbus planes are rock solid as far I can tell.  Something else is wrong here."

It's called a thunderstorm.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:37 | 5601339 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hardly cynical are you Max?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:31 | 5601819 noben
noben's picture

People with real analytical skills will look at all the possibilities, all the evidence, and come up with a short list of probable causes.

As part of the Body of Evidence, you have to include the electronic silence, request for change of course, and lack of debris.

Your explanation does fit the facts or technology involved. We may speculate, and I have done so also (above), but at this point there is not enough evidence to id the true cause.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:58 | 5602118 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

There's a limit to how much hail a turbojet engine can ingest and still run.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Airways_Flight_242

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:40 | 5602065 ebear
ebear's picture

The DC10 is also rock solid, but if you don't follow proper maintenance procedures, this can happen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_191

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:48 | 5601184 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

It's paradoxical, yet there's almost no tough questions from the media.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:51 | 5601198 PT
PT's picture

Media don't ever ask any questions, except:
"How do you feel?"
"Were you terrified?"
"Is it an emergency situation?"

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 09:57 | 5601209 youngman
youngman's picture

The radar shows its air speed as 100 mph...that is way to slow....we are talking major stall....and a fall back to earth...they are hard to recover from...especially if you are one of these book taught pilots...

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:06 | 5601235 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

100 MPH?

Ain't that when you start hitting the brakes on the runway?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:24 | 5601292 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

That or there was one helluva head wind.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:43 | 5601358 PT
PT's picture

100mph?  Good.  That means the search area won't be too big.  Should find it soon.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:50 | 5602091 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The radar displays GROUND SPEED, not air speed. And it's normally done in knots, not mph.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:03 | 5601223 Pesky Labrador
Pesky Labrador's picture

Queue another commercial flight being shot down, *this time by the Russians*.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5601254 websitefound
websitefound's picture

During the inflight safety demonstration they clearly point out your life jacket has a light and whistle for attracting attention.

Somehow I think if they can't find the wreckage of THE PLANE, then what fucking use is a whistle going to be????

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:22 | 5601281 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Website
"then what fucking use is a whistle going to be?"
Why it's a rape whistle for the rest of us to use of course. Bend over here comes the bankers.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5601255 Werekoala
Werekoala's picture

C'thulhu is just building his fleet in preparation for starting his own low-cost regional service carrier.

Either that, or we're going to get a hell of a recreation of "Lost" as a reality show in 2015. Filming of the first season has wrapped, so they needed another cast for season two.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5601257 Doctor Faustus
Doctor Faustus's picture

"The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry." Even with all of the present technology, there is no guarantee it will always work. Remember, if a human designed it, it's fallable. Occam's Razor and all that.

Sometimes, Nature does what it does and there's not a damn thing we can do (or know) about it. But that's not as menace-sounding as the usual conspiracies. 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:53 | 5601384 PT
PT's picture

Of course you could be right.  But when the dealer deals himself four aces twice, I stop playing with him.

Some of his winning hands might be honest.  But I'll never know which hands they were.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:17 | 5601273 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Maybe some Navy vets can clarify but I was under the impression that we also had listening devices in the oceans to track submarine movements.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:35 | 5601326 Pesky Labrador
Pesky Labrador's picture

I have heard of this while serving in the USN, I do not know tha validity though. I also believe it was mentioned in a movie possibly a Tom Clancey?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:43 | 5601351 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

The listening devices are basicaly a digital record of the noise any ship or sub makes in the water -- typiclaly called 'gear whine'.  Every ship and sub has a different signature.  You record the gear whine and compare it to the computerized index and you get your answer as to who it is.  I think Red October made a point about this, that with magneto-hydrodynamic drive there is no sound (of course they haven't invented it yet, at least not to any sort of common use.)

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:53 | 5601710 PT
PT's picture

Of course, in the case of a plane crash, the gears stop whining pretty quickly.
Back to the black box, the Emergency Locator Beacon and the "ping"s.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:21 | 5601282 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

It appears to me that people have boating accidents, governments have plane accidents.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:30 | 5601312 PTR
PTR's picture

Ok, who exactly did Malaysia piss off and what did they do/say?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:36 | 5601329 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Begins with an I and ends with an L, with a whole lot of shit in between.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 18:57 | 5603074 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Ya know, that six pointed star they like to shove in everyones face is actually the star of Solomon, not David.  Kabbalah not Judiasm.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:43 | 5601350 mendolover
mendolover's picture

I'd love to know what it is that Malaysia is doing to deserve this.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:50 | 5601538 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

Yeah, third disaster for a Malaysia-flagged plane in less than a year.  Makes me wonder.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 23:26 | 5603965 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Wikipedia...

 

The Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Commission (KLWCT), also known as the Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Tribunal, is a Malaysian organisation established in 2007 by Mahathir Mohamad to investigate war crimes. The KLWCC was instigated as an alternative to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which Mahathir accused of bias in its selection of cases to cover.

In November 2011 the tribunal purportedly exercised universal jurisdiction to try in absentia former US President George W. Bush and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, convicting both for crimes against peace because of what the tribunal concluded was the unlawful invasion of Iraq.[7][8][9]

In May 2012 after hearing testimony for a week from victims of torture at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, the tribunal unanimously convicted in absentiaformer President Bush, former Vice President Dick Cheney, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, former Deputy Assistant Attorneys General John Yoo and Jay Bybee, former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, and former counselors David Addington and William Haynes II of conspiracy to commit war crimes, specifically torture. The tribunal referred their findings to the chief prosecutor at the International Court of Justice in the Hague.

In November 2013, the tribunal convicted State of Israel guilty of genocide of the Palestinian people and convicted former Israeli general Amos Yaron forcrimes against humanity and genocide for his involvement in the Sabra and Shatila massacre.

 

Think that's enough to do some finger pointing!

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:45 | 5601362 Sheikh Djibouti
Sheikh Djibouti's picture

the aircraft had accumulated approximately 23,000 flight hours in some 13,600 flights, Airbus said on its website

I'm not an expert but those numbers seem sort of unreal. 13600 flights in just over six years? That's an average of 2266 flights a year (roughly), or about 6 per day. Seems like a lot. If you include maintenance periods that's even more per day, that seems high.

Maybe nothing, but it's obviously a plane that has made a lot of short flights.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:50 | 5601382 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Yah, basically a commuter plane.  I've been on some of the CanadAir jets that fly 6 flights a day, traveling about 200 miles per trip, making the flight time about 30-45 minutes.  This Malaysia flight was supposed to be only 1.5 or 2 hours.  That fits with the number of hours per flight.  I'm guessing this was a circuit to be flown, as opposed to what they call a 'yo yo' flight.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:20 | 5601465 Jano
Jano's picture

spot on , just make a brief calculation, which would reveal, that they have been flying 18 hours a day. impossible.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:37 | 5601842 noben
noben's picture

Planes change pilots and crews all the time. Especially for planes with an 18 HR shift.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:46 | 5601373 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

That area of the Java Sea isn't supposed to be that deep.  It may take a couple days for 'stuff' to start floating, although I can't imagine anything not floating right away.  And if there is no wreckage floating, what the heck happened.  Did the pilot skid-land on the ocean and then sink?  That doesn't seem likely because a beacon would have been activated.  Maybe the weather is holding things down.  There is not really any of this event that makes much sense.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:47 | 5601374 XitSam
XitSam's picture

<- Want more ZH on this.

<- I'm not interested.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:02 | 5601409 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It would be interesting to see maintenance records of these aircraft working in very humid environments vs. aircraft working in less humid environments.

There was a previous story about how hard-working these aircraft are. I wonder if there is a corrosion problem.

Leaving out the aircraft probably shot down by Ukraine, that is two more aircrafts which were working in these climates. I know by now I have to have about a thousand hours in Airbus Aircraft, more than US Aircrafts. They all seem pretty solid.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:42 | 5601854 noben
noben's picture

I'd want more info

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 10:55 | 5601389 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Distraction is desparately needed by now.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:05 | 5601426 Truly Inspiration
Truly Inspiration's picture

Can anyone verify if this message is true?

About 2 weeks ago! someone posted in a Chinese blog a warning 39 times, stay away from AirAsia do not become another victum of MH370.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIxMgNiqHT8

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 11:22 | 5601471 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Was Bernanke on the manifest?

Al Qaeda magazine names Western airlines, plus Bernanke and Gates, as terrorist targets

Published: Dec 29, 2014 10:18 a.m. ET

 

Al Qaeda issued the latest edition of its online magazine on Christmas Eve with a step-by-step manual on how to breach airport security and bomb passenger planes.

The militant magazine, Inspire, names American, United, Continental and Delta airlines, as well as British Airways, EasyJet and Air France, as desired targets. It also suggests killing high-profile “economic personalities” like former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and “wealthy entrepreneurs or company owners” like Bill Gates.

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:09 | 5601590 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Who knew Jihad could be so fun...?!?

However, I'd prefer traditional terrorist venues like Jackson Hole and Davos (less innocent collateral damage).

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 17:29 | 5602736 apocalypticbrother
apocalypticbrother's picture

You gotta be an American....

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:06 | 5601586 observer007
observer007's picture

#QZ8501

AirAsia Flight QZ8501 disappeared about 45 minutes after takeoff. Malyasia Arlines MH370, which vanished without a trace earlier this year, also went down well after it had left the runway and entered the "cruise" phase of flight.

China will dispatch aircraft and ships to help search for missing AirAsia Flight QZ8501.

Latest:

http://tersee.com/#!q=QZ8501&t=text

 

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:09 | 5601589 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Many Asian airlines ending up on the bottom of the sea lately.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:17 | 5601605 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

One of the passangers was a top SE Asian Exec from the criminal corporation Alstom recently convicted and fined hugely for engaging in systematic bribery - primarily in SE Asia.

Would an organization like that take down a whole plane full of people just to make one person who knew WAY too much disappear in an "accident"? It's hard to imagine that the top levels of such a company could be so evil. Well, maybe not so hard.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:32 | 5601644 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

3  7  0  8  5  0  1  = LOST

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 12:33 | 5601646 Bear
Bear's picture

LoJack costs about $700 for a car ... you might think that for a 20 million airplane it would be a good investment?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:24 | 5601793 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
Likely "At Bottom Of Sea";...

I just cant make myself believe this.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:24 | 5601797 Who was that ma...
Who was that masked man's picture

Lesson to be learned:  What goes up must come down.

 

Market investors take note.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 13:45 | 5601860 will ling
will ling's picture

sayin' it's at bottom of ocean already seems a bit presumptuous; why not a borneo jungle?

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:13 | 5601961 silentboom
silentboom's picture

 

 

"Tower, we'd like to change course"

"Denied, surely you can't be serious!"

"I am serious, and don't call me shirley!"

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 14:23 | 5602003 JimmyRainbow
JimmyRainbow's picture

well, after fukushima all waiting for god-zilla to enter the stage. maybe the planes are a sign ?

on a more realistic plane: time to check the aircraft maintainance supply lines very carefully

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 16:03 | 5602370 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

It seems obvious now that I had just turned off my ad block on zh.

There is a lot of stuff I don't want to see at this site.

So maybe the searchers have ad block on and can't see the plane.

Let me just clk my boxcutters and hope it turns on my adblock.

Ahhh much better now. I can see how boxcutters could take down a plane. And you really wouldn't be able to see it. Click.

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 18:28 | 5602953 Mepaulus
Mepaulus's picture

Commercial airline pilots should call a world wide strike till some sort of explanation is forthcoming, maybe we might hear something. Let's face it pilots it could be your plane next that's due to be "disappeared".

Mon, 12/29/2014 - 19:15 | 5603125 cart00ner
cart00ner's picture

WTF? My cheap-ass phone can track wherever I am on the planet in seconds and track every movement... How do you lose a fucking plane (or two) with todays tech? Granted it's moving at 8 miles per second, but our regular e-perbs on our boats have fishermen located within minutes.

Something smells here.

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