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Greece In Turmoil After Third Failed Presidential Vote Means January 25 Snap Elections
And just like that Grexit is back.
It appears that with a few short days left in the year, the Santa rally is finally over, if only in Greece where both bonds and stock are tumbling after the third vote for PM Samaras' appointed presidential appointee Stavros Dimas concluded as many had expected: in failure, with 168 Greek lawmakers voting in favor of Dimas, well short of the 180-vote threshold needed. 132 voted against Mr. Dimas. This means that the "worst case" scenario - at least as described by Goldman - is now on deck: a snap general election that could bring the anti-bailout Syriza party to power. And speaking of Syriza, and its triumphant leader Samaras, moments ago he announced that the now inevitable Greek elections will take place on January 25: pencil that date in for even more turmoil.
As for Samaras, his coalition government is now expected to resign later today.

The biggest question now is just how far ahead of New Democracy is the anti-bailout Syriza in polls, and will it be able to achieve a sufficient majority without needing ND or other coalition parties in order to rule, but with a 6%+ lead, Syriza's chances look good to quite good:
Palmos Analysis poll for @tvxs SYRIZA 29.9% ND 23.4 Potami 7.1 G. Dawn 6.5 KKE 3.8 PASOK 3.3 Ind Greeks 2.6 #Greece
— MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) December 29, 2014
Considering the rather violent market reaction in Greece right now, where everything is selling off, many have decided not to wait tunil then.
In terms of next steps, this is what happens via Bloomgberg:
- Samaras is expected to chair a cabinet meeting after the vote
- Parliament will be dissolved, incumbent President Karolos Papoulias may call new elections today, though he has up to 10 days to do so; actual date of vote is announced through a presidential decree posted on parliament’s main entrance.
- Elections must be held within minimum 21 days and maximum 30 days after they’re announced
- Jan. 25: By convention, parliamentary elections are held on Sundays, meaning this could be the first realistic date for the vote; Feb. 1 is also a possibility
- Thereafter: If the party that places first has majority, its leader gets a mandate to form a cabinet which is sworn in on the third day after elections; if there’s no clear majority, the president hands mandate to leader of party with most votes to form a government within three days and put it to parliament for approval; failure to form a workable coalition means mandate passes to second-placed party and then third-placed, each of which has three days; if, as happened in 2012, each party fails to form a government, parties meet with president to try and form a coalition; if that fails, new elections are held
- Feb. 28: Greece’s two-month bailout extension expires, potentially leaving the country without a financial lifeline or access to bond markets
The market reaction upon learning the news:
- Greek stock market tumbles, leading declines in European stocks while generic Greek govt bond spreads vs Germany widen after Greece’s PM Samaras fails to install president in final round of voting and now faces snap elections early next year.
- Greek/German 10Y spread +70bps to 861bps vs day low of 757bps; curve extends inversion
- Greek 10 Year yield exceeds 9.5% for the first time since September 2013
- German 10-Year yield falls to record 0.563%
- Stoxx 600 falls as much as 0.8% to session low; Greek banks are the biggest decliners, with Eurobank Ergasias -23%, Piraeus Bank -21%, National Bank of Greece down 18%, Alpha Bank 17% lower
- European shares fall, though are off intraday lows, with the telcos and banks sectors underperforming and basic resources, health care outperforming.
- The Italian and Spanish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses.
Finally, for those who missed it, here is Goldman's warning of fire and brimstone should the Greek indeed decide the time to exit the Eurozone has come:
Goldman Warns Greeks Of "Cyprus-Style Prolonged Bank Holiday" If They "Vote Wrong"
Funny what a difference two months make. Back on October 4, we wrote "Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns" and... nobody cared as the Greek stock market meltup continued. Now, after the biggest three-day rout in Greek stock market history (or about 30% lower), and with the overhyped, oversold, oversusbcribed recent Greek 5 Year bond issue available in the open market some 16 points lower, and suddenly everyone cares. Including Goldman Sachs.
Overnight the bank with the $58 trillion in derivative exposure issued a note "From GRecovery to GRelapse" which is quite absent on the usual optimism, cheerfulness and happy-ending we have grown to expect from the bank whose former employee is in charge of the European printing press. Here is the punchline: "In the event of a severe Greek government clash with international lenders, interruption of liquidity provision to Greek banks by the ECB could potentially even lead to a Cyprus-style prolonged “bank holiday”. And market fears for potential Euro-exit risks could rise at that point."
Dear Greeks, "don't vote wrong" as EU's Juncker urges you - you have been warned.
Here is the full note.
Why Have Greek Assets Tumbled?
Over the last three months, Greek assets have come under intense selling pressure. The 10y Greek government bond trades at a yield of 9.1% compared to 5.5% in September and the Athens stock exchange is trading 32% lower over the same time-frame (and 40% below the post-crisis peak). As we have written extensively, this deterioration in market conditions has taken place despite an ongoing improvement in macroeconomic indicators. Markets have sold off on the back of election uncertainty ahead of a key year for Greece’s recovery process.
Greece needs official sector funding to pass the 2015 funding hump and ensure financial stability.
Indeed 2015 is a pivotal year for Greece. The most recent growth data prints suggest that the recovery may be gaining momentum. But financial risks still lurk, which could destabilize the Greek economy back into recession. More specifically, 2015 is the last year the government faces large financing needs, nearing €24bn (net of the established primary surplus). Part of those needs may be covered with domestic resources (see Box 1). However, additional funds will likely be required to ensure the government is able to meet its liabilities. As discussed in Box 1, the additional funds required may range between €6bn and €15bn depending on different economic assumptions.
It is important to note that from 2016 onwards, overall financing needs become a lot more manageable (compared to €24bn in 2015) - at or below €10bn until 2022 (lower primary surpluses or higher bond yields than the ones provisioned in the program could push these calculations up somewhat).
With government bond yields at prohibitively high levels, the Greek government will require official sector financing to provide the additional funds for 2015. €7.1bn of IMF funds are currently available as part of the Greek assistance program under relevant conditionality. In addition, the Eurogroup decided on Monday to grant Greece a precautionary credit line (ECCL) provided Greece completes the ongoing review by end of February. There are three main items to be agreed on for the current review to reach a conclusion: a) further reform in labor markets and in union legislation, b) further pension system reform, and c) further budget cuts. Greece is also likely stay under close economic supervision thereafter.
Political complications arise with the presidential vote.
According to the Greek constitution, the parliament needs to elect a President of the Hellenic Republic every five years. The presidential vote requires an extended majority. The term of the incumbent, President Karolos Papoulias, ends in early March 2015. The parliament would need to start the process of electing a new president at least one month in advance – by early February the latest. Should the parliament fail to elect a president, general elections would need to be held.
Due to a tight timeframe between the new deadline for completion of the program review and the deadline for the presidential election, the government decided to speed up the voting process. Three votes will take place – first two on the 17th and the 23rd of December respectively. The first two votes require a majority of 200 votes, which is unlikely to be achieved given the current parliamentary balances. The one that essentially matters is the third and final one on the 29th of December, where the Greek government would need to find 180 votes in the current parliament (of 300 members) to back their presidential candidate. As things stand, the government majority does not suffice to elect a president and avoid elections. 25 independent MPs and MPs from small parties would need to consent to meet the tally.
In the event that the parliament elects a president, the government and the troika will likely resume negotiations and an agreement is likely to be found. Financial risks would decline and Greek assets would likely rally.
In the event that the parliament fails to elect a president, general elections would be held and market uncertainty/pressures would extend. At this stage it is important to understand that market pressures are not linked to the democratic process of elections nor to a potential government change, whatever the ensuing government formation may be. They are linked to the risk of policy discontinuity and a severe clash between Greece and international lenders. More specifically, we think the room for Greece to meaningfully backtrack from the reforms that have already been implemented is very limited. Any such attempt would lead to an interruption of official financing to Greece.
Examining the downside scenario.
To be sure, even in the event of a government change, there is room for a cooperative solution between Greece and Europe. Greece has made significant reform progress between 2012 and the gap between what has already been implemented and what remains to be done is not insurmountable.
Also, the incentives for a clash are not there. For instance any Greek government would likely want to capitalize on the momentum that the economy is building on the activity front, rather than trigger a disruptive capital flight that would lead Greece to a double–dip recession. In addition, given that more than 80% of Greek debt is held by the official sector and given that any OSI would be feasible only as part of an agreement with the Euro-area, there is an incentive for a Greek government to pursue cooperative solutions.
However, the history of the Euro-area crisis has shown that the probability of an “accident” can never be dismissed, when it comes to intra-EMU politics. And it is important for markets to be able to understand and quantify the aspects of a potential downside scenario, where official financing to Greece is interrupted.
The Biggest Risk is an Interruption of the Funding of Greek Banks by The ECB.
Pressing as the government refinancing schedule may look on the surface, it is unlikely to become a real issue as long as the ECB stands behind the Greek banking system. In fact, refinancing became a lot more pressing between 2011 and 2012. But financing needs were met despite the impasse in negotiations between Greece and international lenders – partly via the issuance of T-bills repoable at the ECB by Greek banks. Such methods can always be revisited at times of extreme need.
But herein lies the main risk for Greece. The economy needs the only lender of last resort to the banking system to maintain ample provision of liquidity. And this is not just because banks may require resources to help reduce future refinancing risks for the sovereign. But also because banks are already reliant on government issued or government guaranteed securities to maintain the current levels of liquidity constant.
And this risk can become more pressing from a timing perspective. At the heat of the Greek crisis, there was evident deposit and broader capital flight, which Greek banks helped accommodate with ECB’s help via the ELA facility. In the event of a severe Greek government clash with international lenders, interruption of liquidity provision to Greek banks by the ECB could potentially even lead to a Cyprus-style prolonged “bank holiday”. And market fears for potential Euro-exit risks could rise at that point.
Will European assets be affected?
Outside the spectrum of Greek assets, the main question becomes whether Euro-area assets (such as peripheral bonds, the EUR etc) as well as global assets (equities) are likely to be affected by the Greek crisis. We think this is unlikely. Should financial pressures from a Greece related shock hit the peripheral countries formerly in a program (Ireland & Portugal), there may be special arrangements to avert the transmission of the shock locally. Moreover, in our view, the ECB is likely to engage in outright market purchases of sovereign debt securities as part of their monetary policy operations in H12015. We do not think that the volatility from Greece is likely to derail the QE decision.
There is of course the risk of broader contagion, should the participation of Greece in EMU once again be put in doubt. But we think this is a low probability event as the majority of the Greek population is still in favor of EMU participation and as all major political parties in Greece currently deem Euro-exit as undesirable.
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Yeah! Molon labe! It's getting serious quite fast, Juncker, how about a fat, blunt lie, now?!
Molon Labe, indeed. Only this time it is not the Persians who are threatening them, but an even more evil empire.
Should the Greeks would reclaim their dignity by ejecting the EU/Banksters, repudiating their debt and rebuilding, they have a chance to create a better society. Otherwise they are doomed to endless years of mediocrity and debt slavery.
Cue
Please, for the love of sanity, please let the greek people vote syriza. Let them show that an economic short sharp shock is better than a long drawn out death by brussels. Death to the EU, Death to the banksters!
Wooooohooooo!
I am surprised. But Wooohoooo""
Burn you fucking bitch. Burn this whole thing down!
i wonder who would be next? Aren't italy considering a return to the lira?
Cute Vlad dumping any Italian and Spanish notes, naked shorting the Greek banks like a motherfucker and invading Ukraine.
Enjoy your cake you fucking Brussels morons.
Gonna need a new can to kick.
The old can is so dented, it hurts when kicking it.
I'm sure Syriza is going to win, they have been building momentum over the past few years. The only problem is, the entire organization is run by kids. Their chief ecomomists have no idea what to do as per fixing the hellenic economy. A few years ago they told me that they wanted to give everyone government jobs and double the wage... I responded with "isn't that how your country got into this mess in the first place"? Their response, "...."
win or not win, kids or not kids, either they win 51% of the votes or they can only govern in a coalition
if you take the projected numbers shown in the article, it would have to be with ND. possible, but hardly so
nope, in those typical european multi-party electoral setups, it's completely possible to be the party number one... and still be in the opposition, in parliament. and watching number two, three, four, five and six forming a government with 51% of the elected MPs
personally, I prefer this kind of arrangement, and dislike the "winner takes all" setups. but that's me, of course
Ghordius, I agree, I've enjoyed all of this two party tag team cluster lovefest that I can stand.
You can spin it any way you want, but you KNOW that the entire EU "dream" is FUBAR when you have a party like Golden Dawn polling TWICE as high as PASOK (6.5% vs 3.3%). GD are a bunch of goons with a penchant for good old uncle Adolf, while PASOK (Greek Socialist Party) is practically the creator of modern Greece. Oh well, here goes the neighborhood...
Next game of EU political football to watch: see Marie Le Pen winning presidency in France, against the little NWO stooge (Sarko 2, like in a bad horror series), 2 years from now. That would be about same time as the Britons finally figuring it out if they want IN or OUT of the EU contraption... In the mean time, the so-called EU "economy" will continue to suck, to everybody's great enthusiasm.
So Greece has become a concern
The EU could easily burn
If Syriza wins
The fire begins
The play if they do?...buy an urn!
Greeks ( in Nuland's voice : : FUCK THE EU .
not gonna happen, never, same for greece exit, they will pay.
i remember you all the system has not been designed so they can exit, whatever the problem. they will wipe the targeted country, but they will never let it to shake the UE stability.
rubbish. the very moment Greece would exit the eurozone, plenty of megabanks would peddle some dollar loans to it. like someone exiting a methadone program finding plenty of heroin pushers at the door
nobody here asks why even Syriza is not for a GreXit a priori. the simplification and projection going on here is simply epic
+1
Ghordius,
most of the commenters here are hopelessly "belief-formed". they are going to continue reacting to new developments with how their belief system processes the information. they are still operating under thousands of years of layered myths and superstitions, happy to reject and remain ignorant to systems of belief contrary to their own, and unable to do science or philosophy beyond a kindergarten level.
because when you can't challenge the truth,
junk and run...just junk and run ;-)
ok man, rendez vous in MARCH, or any time you want, greece will NEVER LEAVE euro zone, do you ear me ? NEVER.
i, wincherster, reader of ZH, certify on my honnor, having a bet with TRADER1, saying GREECE, , will not leave the euro zone, not a single country will go outside.
signed, WINCHESTER.
i can't wait march to post you " you were delusional revolutionar coward saying "go my firend" but stay behind to not be hurt, i say NOBODY will move to loose what they got, it is SYSTEMIC, it is GLOBAL, every one got more to loose to change the system that earning by changing it.
someone wrote it here, you say all bad behavior this or that, but every one make money making same bets and act same, financially speaking....
clean your front door before talking to me dude, i'm not playing this game, i'm just watcher here. system can collapse i have nothing to loose :) i just watch the sheeps and the sheperds dancing on the lands.
Saying "NEVER" is for loosers.
i don't think greece will leave the EZ either.
i just think they'll end up re-negotiating the terms of the bailout package.
I generally will not waste my time with arrogance as yours.
First you insult this group. Then you get junked and wonder why? That is demonstrative of YOUR STUPIDITY.
So go and autofellate spineless man.
+1,000.
Trader1 - what a nob-jockey.
keep stacking Dame.
as opposed to your own and the ZH hivemind arrogance?
to varying degrees, we're all arrogant and trying to project a reality onto the world that we observe.
this is fight club, right?
take what i say as an insult. fine.
someone else will take it as a learning moment.
we can hope though can't we.
Thats not the way syriza was talking last year, they were openly talking exit. I think they have calmed down the rhetoric to come across more moderate and thus more electable, but I still think the original tsipras and syriza are lurking :P
If they take loans from said banks after all they have been through, they deserve to suffer. Best to just default. my opinion anyway.
Gordo,
I think that falls under the "why buy the cow when you get the milk for free" clause.
this rings clear with the tyme that the swiss will back their frank with gold.
ha, greece is a bitch that needs to spread her legs and submit again...
My country does not have any independence, cannot choose money or anything, it' a colony of the USSA. It was invaded and now hosts 132 american bases. Prime ministers are appointed by the US ambassador.
Prime minister Aldo Moro, an american servant like those before him, dared issuing the famous 500 lire bill, one that WASN'T granted by the Banca d'Italia central bank but directly from the people. He was kidnapped by NATO agents and murdered in the 70's.
Funny, eh? We are a colony of a colony!
A colonic then perhaps?
I understand the sentiment about showing that a short , sharp shock is better than this long drawn out depression. However, the bankers in the rest of the EU will ensure they are punished for repudiating their bogus debt. So many banks would lose a shitload of money and the Greek people will be made to pay for this one way or another. I'm not saying you are wrong about the smarter course of action, but I don't think they will be allowed to access capital markets anytime in the near future.
The minute Greece attempts to eject/evict the banksters, the powers to be will wink at Turkey that it will not interfere if it accidentally happens to create an episode or two in the Aegean.
"Should the Greeks would reclaim their dignity by ejecting the EU/Banksters, repudiating their debt and rebuilding, they have a chance to create a better society"
simply too much wrong in one sentence
first, the banksters that put Greece into troubles were... those of the Vampire Squid Firmly Attached To The Face Of Humanity (oh, and Greek banks writing CDSs)
second, the main debt Greece currently has is not to banks, it's the fresh one from a few select european countries. the EU as very little to do about it. You could say that all in all Germany, Finland et al bailed out Greece from the banksters
third, repudiating their national, sovereign debt is... an interesting notion. wouldn't it be better to wait until the Greek budget is balanced? just asking, then if it's not balanced... who is going to lend to Greece after a debt repudiation? Again, just asking (and remembering Argentina, and the path to dollarization)
fourth, dignity is imho the wrong word. pride would fit better to Greece. but a better Greek society would probably anyway involve less pride and less corruption
fifth, there is no serious discussion here about Greek sovereign debt. Otherwise there would be some mention about how big the quota of debt service is on the Greek national budget
Ghordius > who is going to lend to Greece after a debt repudiation?
China. - Greece starts using the Yuan. Like Ecuador uses the USD.
you think China is already that far? possible. I was thinking more about sweet, sweet dollars by a consortium of megabanks. four of them, specifically
Greece balancing it's budget? Are you a stand up comedian?
If I could choose, I'd opt to be seen in the same category as Aristophanes, who wrote several excellent political comedies
Greece is doing heroic efforts in it's budget, and for all purposes it is balancing it's budget. That's not comedy, that's facts
the whole discussion here ought to be about that, and about how long. me, I'd be all for forever, as for all other european sovereigns
that all european sovereign budgets are converging towards balanced is one of the things that aren't discussed here on ZH
but again, that's as for the magically shrinking ECB balance sheet
They have managed, through amazingly harsh and extreme methods, to reach a near primary budget surplus. If one adds interest payments, Greece's deficits are still on the rise and will continue to rise. I do not know what hanky-panky is going on behind the scenes. So backroom deals aside, Greece was bankrupt, is bankrupt and can never, ever pay back the debt without some earth-shattering shift,occurance or discovery.
As fo the reasons the country is in this position, it is a combination of evil policies over the past 35 years, conspiracy and a heavy dose of delusion and ignorance of the Greek people. They were led to the slaughterhouse all while thinking they were the center of the universe.
This is the best I could do for a factual summary at this hour. Believe what you will.
And you think China will trust a commie party like Syriza ? If they can repudiate EU debt they can also repudiate China debt, no ?
After repudiation nobody will lend to Greeks, the Greeks are dead, both with the EU or not; simple as that.
Hedge accordingly.
plenty of countries have defaulted and continue to be loaned money, uk is in mind atm, ffs, even russia. default is not the end of the world.
Yes, but the UK last defaulted in 1932 according to Wiki, so not really relevany now.
No, it will be just the end of your savings when banks will start to Bail-In her losses.
Again, hedge accordingly.
First, you haven't a clue of what you are talking about
Second, although the majority of Greek debt is now held by the official sector (ECB, IMF, EU members central banks), any hair cut as proposed by Syriza will have cascading effects into.........drum roll please......the private banking sector.
Third, Greece has been in a primary surplus position for many months now. Internal social spending which has been savagely cut can be managed. It's debt service that's dragging them down.
Fourth, there are far more corrupt places in Europe than Greece or did you miss the juncker conceived and executed Lux tax evasion scandal
Fifth, there is no PUBLIC serious discussion because they don't want to lend credibility to the Syriza demands. I am sure the secret back room discussions they haven't told you about already have a Plan B in place when Syriza gets in and European bond and equities markets start to puke blood. There will be a haircut or Europe breaks up, which do you think they will pick?
Sixth, you always post stuff on here with a know it all attitude. Often you don't know shit.
taraxias, the "cascading on private banking sector"... which one? yes, Greece has been in a primary surplus position for many months, now. don't you see that the very market operators that are construing a new "Greek Debt Crisis" don't care anymore about fundamentals?
there is a difference between endemic corruption (bottom up) and top-down corruption. Greece still suffers too much from the first sort, and his is evident in tax collection. the Lux tax evasion is not something that hurts the Lux nation directly, does it?
stop getting blinded by my arrogance, real or perceived, and you'll note that our points have a lot in common. or perhaps tone down your Greek pride, real or perceived, to the same effect. I do business in Greece, btw
Tired of trying to deconstruct the ignorance you have put up this morning, albeit expressed in your usual eloquent language to almost make it believable, so I will stop here.
Besides, I always stop debating the minute someone contradicts themselves or back pedals on their original argument. You have on the position you took on Greece's primary surplus situation.
I will leave you with this to ponder. Greece will either be given debt relief (not just extending maturities or lower interest but real debt write off) or Europe splits sooner than expected (splitting is already baked into the cake the minute the euro was introduced, it was all just a matter of when). What do you think your bureaucrats will do?
taraxias, you simply fill in too much between my lines. with stuff I never said and never meant. Greece has a primary surplus because the european partners are asking for such measures, remember? this besides all the treaties on this matter that were signed by the gov and ratified by the Greek parliament
of course a debt relief is in the cards, eventually. the question is when. "after a few months" is a tad too little/early, considering history. and this has little to do with the euro
just tell me if you think that a balanced budget is simply impossible, for a sovereign, long term, and go on from there
You have Greeks who are going to vote for Syriza because "Tsipras did not sign or agree to the austerity measures." They somehow think that because he didn't sign that the terms will no longer apply. You're sitting here and applying your high-flying theories to this thought process?
EDIT: While I'm pretty sure taraxias doesn't agree with my harsh take on the ignorance and sneaky, self-serving character of the majority of the Greek populace, I am in agreement with his overall assessment.
"there is no PUBLIC serious discussion because they don't want to lend credibility to the Syriza demands" please elaborate on that
because the Greek political class does not want to discuss it or because there is no popular support for such things? specifically, which part of the Syriza demands, and those in the past or those in the present?
Even the Zero Hedge crowd manages to acknowledge that the most penetrating critiques of plutocracy thus come not from the foaming-at-the-mouth-right, but from the progressive left? I'm struck by increasing amazement.
If that ever happened, I'd probably be struck...dead.
Way, way down on my worry list.
I'm struck by the elegance of your comment, and the ratio between sarcasm, truthfulness and lenght +1
Repudiate the debt is what we all should do. It is math - it is unpayable.
Keep the tits LL.
The bankers who control the world finally lose one. Maybe it's a start.
I was wrong and I'm OVER THE MOON! Yesterday I commented that the banksters would win since the twelve (or more) Greek sell-outs would easily be found.
I was wrong! I was wrong! I was wrong!
WOOHOO!
Up yours, banksters!
You kick them out the door and they ooze in through a crack in your roof. Slime is hard to contain.
It wont be the first time stocktivity.
Although largely forgotten by historians and by the public, repudiation of public debt is a solid part of the American tradition. The first wave of repudiation of state debt came during the 1840’s, after the panics of 1837 and 1839. Those panics were the consequence of a massive inflationary boom fueled by the Whig-run Second Bank of the United States. Riding the wave of inflationary credit, numerous state governments, largely those run by the Whigs, floated an enormous amount of debt, most of which went into wasteful public works (euphemistically called “internal improvements”), and into the creation of inflationary banks. Outstanding public debt by state governments rose from $26 million to $170 million during the decade of the 1830’s. Most of these securities were financed by British and Dutch investors.
During the deflationary 1840’s succeeding the panics, state governments faced repayment of their debt in dollars that were now more valuable than the ones they had borrowed. Many states, now largely in Democratic hands, met the crisis by repudiating these debts, either totally or partially by scaling down the amount in “readjustments.” Specifically, of the 28 American states in the 1840’s, nine were in the glorious position of having no public debt, and one (Missouri’s) was negligible; of the 18 remaining, nine paid the interest on their public debt without interruption, while another nine (Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida) repudiated part or all of their liabilities. Of these states, four defaulted for several years in their interest payments, whereas the other five (Michigan, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida) totally and permanently repudiated their entire outstanding public debt. As in every debt repudiation, the result was to lift a great burden from the backs of the taxpayers in the defaulting and repudiating states.
unfortunately, nothing greece or any other small fry country does will matter until, and only until, events over their station play out. just look at the crappy USD. the world knows it sucks, but they've pushed it up to 90. immediate liquidity is the primary concern, and the devilish, babylonian money majyk can supply that quicker than ever. need a trillion? we'll email it to you.
we will all wait until the BRICS (ie China) change the rules of the game unilaterally. even then it will take a good long while for reform. should the black swans fly, and it looks like they certainly will soon, look for the IMF to come along with SDRs. I hear people say, the IMF is broke, they can't provide the next currency, but when did that ever stop others? they will come in and wave a majyk wand, resetting world debt, and once again the immediate liquid concerns will crush the long-term, sound money voices in the world.
but all is not lost. meanwhile, the BRICS will begin their move to real asset, international trade, and gradually the world will move in their direction. if, however, we see that China and their yuan has been included in the basket of currencies forming the SDRs, then forget about it. the NWO will have won a long time ago.
Good.....fuck Brussels, happy new year!
And now the propaganda will begin in full.
But since the Greeks have been raped and pillaged for half a decade and have very little left to steal, perhaps they'll decide to have some courage this time.
This time on Greek TV it won't be about money like it was in 2012. I was in Greece the week before the last Parliamentary elections. It was all about the cash last time.
This time the election will be all about "We are Europeans" with the status quo defining "European" as meaning beloning to the EU. (Nevermind the Swiss or the Norwegians) It will be up to the Communists, Golden Dawn and Syriza to re-define "European" as people who live in a geographic area and not belonging to a political union.
Burn your dirty Brussels fuckers. Furn. I hope it rains cleptocrats in Brussels when this whole construct rips itself apart.
I never met a single person who lives in europe who considered themselves "european". So lets hope this is the electoral strategy Samaras takes. It's like him, a born loser.
Haus Targaryen is literally surrounded by people that drive him mad by constant talk about them feeling european. or at least this is the way he sounds
with few exceptions, like yours truly, all europeans are first nationals of a specific country, and second perhaps faintly attached to this association of sovereign nations called EU
though 8 million europeans live in a "guest" european country, including nearly one million Brits. but feeling european has little to do with the EU. that's an American projection
confounded by specific English feelings about the whole thing, including a long history of seeing the continent as something fundamentally different (which in many ways is true)
Whut?
It's the eggnog.
Will this be the first domino in the collapse of the EU ? Please let it happen!
Germany needs to leave the EU, dump SWIFT, and join the BRIICS.
My wager is that Spain or Portugal will leave next. After that Italy and Ireland may get the clue.
The Eurozone is fracturing.
That is definitely against the Globalist wishes.
Fuck Brussels and their God Damned New World ODOR.
why don't you take the UK out of the EU, instead? after all, it hosts one of the two main cities that champion globalization
how fucking times i have to repeat :
by design this is not FUCKING ALLOWED, because 1st move bring TOTAL COLLAPSE by domino effect !!!!!
even if countries, all of them WANT to , they HAVE NOT THE RIGHT TO, it is forbidden.
the 1st who crosss the line, is get killed. usa kill self prez as tradition when shtf.... total boss about oil, baaaam, crash.... the system is locked.
Safe crackers break through locks but that may not be necessary as they spontaneously combust within. The pressure public opinion places on them, they all go to the country club and play golf in their respective home towns, and the creation of a parallel system which converts over to a currency backed by the 3 generations of wealth holding up the stock market (first one out gets it). All is fair in love and war at this point. Not going to war, at any level over this is suicide. It is a matter of how you want to die.
I Boycott all MSM stations and sites. It has been 4 years. Twice maybe I followed a link to ABC video and news site (local) but make an effort to find another sponsor. This works and is easy.
Madness??
It looks like Herr Juncker's attempt to intervene in Greek democracy did not go down too well.
Maybe they should have had Queen Elizabeth make an appeal to the Greek people.
Why would the head of the committee of 300 want to do that?
Adrenochrome riddled addicts......the lot of them.
Thank goodness they don't have any real power.....we gave them the BIS....so they would still feel important.
Hmmm ... Adrenochrome ... fear and loathing in Athens ....
With all due respect to Her Majesty she might not be too popular in Greece. There was an occassion where she allowed a Greek Cypriot student to be hung when Cyprus was resisting British rule despite the pleas of countless politicians across the globe.
This time round the EU is hanging a whole nation.
Nothing changes.
With all due respect to Her Majesty ...
Just what has she done to earn any respect?
No respect is given when there is none due. Respect is earned.
She is a fucking, murderous twat from hell. The Queen is the epitome of the word CUNT.
I would not give that whore the time of day. You can knock yourself out.
the Queen is gently asked to refrain from politics by the British Parliament, while Juncker was asked to do so by the EU Parliament. a small difference
Ghordius: > the Queen is gently asked to refrain from politics by the British Parliament
That did not stop the Queen from intervening in Scottish politics recently though. So why not try again?
don't ask me, look it up on the British Constitution. oh, I forgot, there is no written one. anyway, my point was that you can't compare the two
specifically, the treaties governing the functioning of that org that we call EU state that the Commission has to "think european", and allowes them to say what they think, in politics
the fact that previous commissions did not the way Juncker does it now has nothing to do with it
I responded to some earlier stupidity you put up but this one is beyond stupid.
First, the English bill of rights is the foundation block of every charter of rights and national constitutions around the planet. They don't need several fake referendums to install a fake "constitution" because British civil rights are already imbedded into British law,
Second, if you think that a yet again phoney mandate "to think European" gives the right to an unelected directly by the people of Europe bureaucrat to blatantly intervene and try to influence a member sovereign's national elections, then you deserve exactly what you got.
the English Bill of Rights of 1689 is an Act of Parliament. a constitution would be above that level, which is of national law. so I repeat: the UK has no written constitution. that's a fact
have again a read about the bill, and you'll notice that it hampers the Queen, not the Queen's government (actually of Parliament), btw. de facto, Westminster is... supreme
who is peddling for a "phoney mandate"? I simply don't see why there is the need for a gag to Juncker's mouth. He is a politician, he was appointed by the EU Council and the EU Parliament, he is supposed, in my book, to talk about politics. If this counts as an "intervention" and as to "try to influence a member's sovereign's national elections", then we are really at loggerheads about basic freedoms
It's funny how some countries like France have a constitution of Republican Monarch which opens up all sorts of possibilities for "absolutist" rule.
And the people pay through their noses by being taxed and thoroughly out-foxed by the ENA kleptocratic and hubristic breed, more elitist as republican servants of a "pseudo" democratic construct-- that constitution ensures that-- than their debased "Abolition of Privilege" Aristocratic predecessors.
How History can RUN backwards when it can't slowly and tortuously walk forwards is always an amazing spectacle.
But the French have this noble and inimitable tradition of creating ideological monsters who defy logic and history : soldier-monks and the Inquisition then, republican-monarchs today. Cicero, the orginal Brutus and the original Savior must have turned in their graves or on their celestial perches!
On this point please note that the French taught the Us Neo-cons in the 60s how to plan Operation Phoenix--based on Algiers Casbah cleansing-- applied in Saigon, the CIA precursor to Patriot Act and Gitmo.
They also inspired (by their medieval Saint Louis crusade example) the GWB Iraq Crusade all juiced up by the NWO mantra of "Clash of Civilization" of Samual Huntington, the Bernard of Clairvaux of modern Pax Americana.
Another country has a Bill of rights steeped in sharing of power between Oligarchs and Statists, who all grew up on the playing fields of Eton and Oxbridge. Rule Britannia was a common construct by the feudal elites since Magna Carta.
The people always ate "the remains of the day" like the people "down below" in Downtown Abbey make belief. BTW, Downtown Abbey is a very watered down and sterilised version of true race relations in UK; as no doubt we will continue to find out.
Now Samaras will have to sell Greece entirely, not just the banksta golden fleece sitting in Swiss banks, to Mutti and EU -- or else it'll be back to the Day of the Jackal-Colonels!
Just saying, two ways of achieving the same result.
But we have to stay humble 'cos elsewhere in the world its even worse!
Its always a bitch to judge contemporary history in one's own ball park as we lose the grasp of how low a civilization can fall. Sometimes regression is inevitable and relatively speaking a cleansing exercise.
Lets hope it doesn't fall off the cliff altogether.
I think you meant to say the Queens's husband, he is Greek.
The triumphant leader of Syriza is Tsipras and not Samaras.
Then again, if Tsipras does nothing to upset the European apple cart and alleviate the choker hold on Greece it may as well be Samaras as the leader of Syriza.
My guess is that the Europeans will throw some scraps from the table to make him look good in the eyes of the people so as to ensure him being an obedient peasant.
I hope I am wrong though.
I think he is going to want be wary of any potential for accidental death....
You' ve "nailed" it my friend although I suspect that the NSA etc have been tracking, recording and building up a file on Tsipras that will make him a good little boy just like Merkel is a good little girl and does not demand return of her gold forthwith nor does she express outrage at being bugged by the US.
It's a little different for her as Germany is not a sovereign nation and won't be for another 25 years.
She governs Germany at the discretion of France, USA and UK as part of the terms of surrender from WW2. Plus she used to work for the Stasi so she's extra compliant.
"... we should expect another wave of unprecedented propaganda by the banking-media dictatorship in Greece, until the date of the national elections, so that to change some voters' minds to vote for 'stability'."
don't worry the Russell is green and new ATH!, and out of nowhere Oil gets a bid...Central Banks are all over this as BTP quickly put back under 2%
Maybe time for Greece to join the Russian Anti Bolshevik Federation. The Ruskies could winter in the warmth of Greece and the Ruskies could help the Greece dispatch the parasite zio-bankers once and for all. Bring it on man, save the world from the zio-bankers.
By George, jolly good man, you have just solved the worlds problems.
AMERICA CANADA, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA, UK, EU - J O I N T H E B R I C S
But first get the gold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1LOWEufAH0
Mama - Genesis - Say you'll help me mama cuz it is getting so hard (Someone please help us)
ECB can use all of the proposed Qualitative Easing funding to buy Greek sovereign bonds which can be on their books as risk free assets. Will the Draghi proposed level of QE be enough for Greece bailout?
you still believe what Draghi says about QE?
The suggestion was a joke.
However, if this resolves into a bank run to move funds out of Greece, it will have a Cyprus solution.
Every bank in EU will be quaking.
US Treasury bonds may get bid to that 1% on the 10 yr
Augustus, no financial crisis is ever the exact same as the previous one. The Cyprus affair was specifically prepared by three laws legislated shortly before by the Cyprot parliament and heavily dependent from the Cypriot President writing a specific decree against the reccomandation of the Cypriot national bank governor
You are correct in that no two crises move along the same path. However the end result is always the same. Somebody gets screwed on the Promise to Pay. How it is done an who get the biggest screw job is a somewhat minor detail. If the ECB decides they already have a belly full of Greek bonds and Greek bank bonds, who is left but the large depositors?
Once it is recognized that there are a whole lot of Black Widows in the game, everyone wants out, particularly private investors / depositors. No bank can survive that and the Greek government is not capable of a bailout. This could really be the beginning of Game Over for a lot of Greek institutions with collateral real financal damage to other EZ banks. Once that starts there will be some general loss of confidence in all EZ banks.
There will be some really ugly mark to market adjustments comming on these Greek bonds for year end with no time to finagle the problem. Add in some Russian ruble currency and yield mark to market problems and there is a lot of EZ pain. If you can track some of the interbank lending rates it will be interesting to see how much freeze up there is.
???????? ???????,
????????, ?? ??????? ?? ???????? ????? ??? ?????????????.
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oh great, no greek font allowed
"dear greeks
please bring down the fucking house of cards
yours truly"
:D
Why have elections in socialist Europe anymore?
Goldman Sachs can just annoucnce what bankster technocrat they chose to be installed.
Putin didn't play the New World bankster Order game so now their out to destroy him.
I think this is the opposite of turmoil. The Greeks are not happy with conditions being imposed and so they voted to renagotiate .
27% unemployment is not a good / acceptable result
It may also be to the Germans advantage, as they can hold off on QE
and nagotiate a reatructure instead, or something in the middle.
If this had not happened Greece may have just broken current agreements
at next election.
the conflict shows the political system is working, and can force change
( in comparison to Japan that with 250% debt to GDP and falling GDP rising prices ect had not choice but to continue the long road to a currency crisis.
You got my up vote, but I think you missed the mark a bit.
There is NO solution for Greek finance except default - another deep haircut. That wll wipe the bank equity and ECB capital this time. The event of the bail-in or Cyprus is still in investor memory to accelerate the bank run and asset sales, sooner not later.
it is very likely now that Greece will leave the euro zone
Good for them, I wish everyone would.
I very much hope so.
For everybody's shake.
The problem for Greece is that her debt load is not sustainable and secondly her economy cannot sustain or meet the level of expectations by the electorate in terms of pensions, health and all the other functions.
Greece should be llowed to revert to the drachma and then undergo periodic devaluations until her income is commensurate with her expenses and the living standards reflect the value of their output.
Ie EU is going down a path were the sovereign ( ie Greece) can vote in a new Govt and renagotiate the terms of the debt.
Japan is saying they will print until someone notices
avoiding any social conflict or renegotiation is the trouble.
Greece has a primary surplus for 2014, Japsn had another
10% of GDP .. 50% of spending deficit so their adding another
450 bill in new Debt to the 10.7 trill pile.
If Greece can get the unemployment back on track with further restructure
of the debt they can avoid the collapse ( ie the Germans might be helping them )..
Where as Japan, we'll lets watch the yen if ECB ends up not needing to go QE..
this has potential to change the world
The days of "MOAR" are numbered
It's a big club and you ain't in it BITCHEZ
There are many pervious examples of Keynesian failures.
Why should this Greek example be more instructive?
this is more than just Keynesian failure, Greece is NOT the USSA (in Europe people are still more in tune with critical thinking, in the USSA they teach you at a young age to be a consumer, a snitch, etc...)
that is why it has POTENTIAL.
DO ME A FAVOR AND START TRAVELING THE WORLD TO UNDERSTAND THAT
and if you dont get my point, just look at footage of riots in the world and compare that the the US lol
or even better, just look how the sports fan cheer in the US compare to the rest of the world (can you say sheeple)
German Company to Buy Greek Island “For Customers”http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com
More proof that America is indeed exceptional.
Look how fucked up Greece is (and just about every other FOREIGN country) after 2,000+ years of "progress". Better yet, look how far they've all fallen. They are essentially just groups of squatters camping out of the ruins of once great civilizations.
I'll take 200+ years of American civilization over that any day!
it's amazing the diversity of people ZH attracts...
Because it is so appropriate...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FONN-0uoTHI
It sure did!
No reason to get excited. There will be a last minute "intervention" for the "good" of the people. Thevies know no bounds.
Count on it!
Diebold to the rescue!!
Who cares if there is a bank holiday or a Cyprus-like bail-in?
Most people in Greece don't have any money to lose, or they hold cash. The only ones that would be hurt by a bank bail-in would be the rich.
Yes, and those still wealthy are not likely to be caught like the Russians were. Changing bank deposits takes minutes online, including the login and logout.
greece could be the pilot case for how a debt jubilee would play out...
now's the time.
sorry Herr Schauble.
accounting and finance has always been more of an art than science.
art, where there's always room to accomodate almost any interpretation.
you know this very well.
Of course he knows, and don't bother to call him Schauble, the man's named Strangelove.
Grexit, Euro collapse, Bail-In: time to buy Gold/Silver/Bitcoin ?
Little understood by mainstream economists, businessmen, politicians or media organizations is that social mood causes social action, not the other way around. This fact is often misunderstood because it is contrary to the way most of society believes things occur. For instance, people don’t get fearful and angry because war breaks out, war breaks out because people are already fearful and angry. That is no small distinction.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/negative-social-mood-causes-geopoliti...
Holy Cow!
You discovered why I eat when I get hungry.
Well done.
Socionomics Institute - The Study of Social Mood and Social ... action.
Serious question:
If the so-called PIGS are sucking all the juice out of what would otherwise be Eurozone prosperity, then why would a Greek exit (for example) be viewed as an ominous threat?
Because there is no Eurozone prosperity?
Because in case of grexit there would be no curtain. See the diffenrence?
First domino to fall - Spain, Italy, France are all also insolvent and would be attacked next
then forget portugal, spain italiy france estonia latvia.
then forget the political project of eu, which states, that ALL EU COUNTRIES have to adopt euro (meeting the minimum criteria at the given time), then if they need to kick someone out, the political project can be declared obsolete. This is not in the interest of elites, they will have to scrap their TPPs and TAPs and I hope NATO as well.
The Russian currency extended its losses on Monday after a report showed the economy has started shrinking in annual terms for the first time since 2009 as the country is buffeted by falling oil prices and Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, the government, which has been scrambling to support the ruble and the economy, announced fresh steps to keep the banks afloat.
The ruble has been one of the world's worst performing currencies this year and was down another 5 percent on Monday, trading at 56 rubles per dollar in early afternoon in Moscow, wiping off some of the gains it made last week.
The fall came as the Economic Development Ministry issued a report showing the economy shrank by 0.5 percent in November compared with a year earlier. The ministry attributed the year-on-year decline in the economy, Russia's first in five years, to a sharp drop in manufacturing and investment.
The economy has been buffeted by a combination of lower prices for the country's crucial oil exports and the impact of Western sanctions.
Stabilizing the ruble is a priority for the country's monetary authorities. The Central Bank in past weeks raised its key interest rate to 17 percent and said it will offer dollar and euro loans to banks so they can help major exporters that need foreign currencies to finance operations.
The bank's foreign currency reserve has now dropped below $400 billion for the first time since August 2009, as the government has been selling the currency on the market to support the ruble.
Many Russian companies and banks have been locked out of Western capital markets following the sanctions imposed on the country for its involvement in Ukraine.
The government on Monday announced new steps to prop up the banking sector. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told a government session that he has just signed a decree to provide a total of 1 trillion rubles ($19.6 billion) to Russian banks. The list of the banks and the amount that each of them will receive is expected drawn up by mid-January, according to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.
Shuvalov said the measures should help "the banking sector be more stable in the new circumstances and safeguard it from new shocks if they do occur," he was quoted by Tass.
Several of those sanctions which lock russian companies out of western capital markets will be reviewed by European Court of Justice soon. Maybe this will turn out to be redolent of the sentence Yassin Abdullah Kadi got, not that long ago: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/middleeast/13kadi.html?_r=0
And if the ruble drops, guess what? Losses from falling revenues in oil and gas exports (for which taxes and trades have to be paid in dollar) are nullified, because the russian budget is in rubles, not dollar. Further, costs of operation tend to drop faster than earnings in dollar, so income spreads widen.
We also discussed chinas role here, already: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/china-prepares-bailout-russia
It sounds like you're suggesting a weak ruble is beneficial to Russia's economy rather than detrimental. Please confirm.
Do you also believe a weak dollar, in the aggregate, benefits American?
This is a little bit more complex. In the first place, I think about the declining oil price, which will hurt the USA more in the long run, than Russia. For several reasons: Rosneft and Lukoil are suspiciously quiet, that hints at some agreement between Russia and Saudia Arabia. The falling ruble momentarily nullifies losses from lower Oil- and gas prices. Investions in the fracking industry have been financed by credits up to an amount of more than 80 % (in the USA, that is). That amounts to roughly 300 billion dollars. Below their break-even point these credits will become non-performing fast. Of course the lending banks bought insurance against that case, in the form of *drumroll* CDS. So, if the price of oil stays low for a longer period, a new financial crisis in the banking sector could emerge. Possibly the price will rise again, come February, which in turn will stabilize the ruble, because the debt russian industry has to repay in 2015 is nowhere near their commitments in 4/2014. So, temporarily a weaker ruble is beneficial for russia. But a weaker dollar won't be beneficial for americans, because it would signal decreasing dollar-demand in the world, which would turn out to be extremely bad for the USA.
go to the hell u CIA/ZIO agent.
Vlad almost got that noose around his neck last night!
Zero Hedgers, please be more vigilant on his suicide watch....
anyway, whatever is put in the seat, everything remain from unchanged to worst.
i remember when in 2008 usa were crazy to elect a black thinking it would upgrade usa.... lol see your problem big enough now ...?
think greek putting a man against eurozone will fix the problem for them ... hehe, second he push trigger of 1st wave attack, he his financially nuked, throat tighten, untill blood pressure exit from occular holes.
same shit as if france who want to put lepen to power will fix issues... lol...
remember the sentence : " if politics has any reel impact to the societies, voting would have been forbidden long ago " ...?
Greek debt rated down to juncker-level!
News at 11!
Hmm this seems like a a very nice Fried Calamari recipe. Greece is showing tremendous amount of tenacity for cooking up a great New Year independence and freedom hope. I'm with Greece the guns of the Vampire Squid banksters can be devoured, not as tough as the Gobbles propaganda media has them made out to be. When exactly is BRICS swift coming on line? Those Russian gold backed bonds at 10% yield look ............
Peace Happy New Year to all ZH'ers.
"The Rothschilds, and that class of money-lenders of whom they are the representatives and agents -- men who never think of lending a shilling to their next-door neighbors, for purposes of honest industry, unless upon the most ample security, and at the highest rate of interest -- stand ready, at all times, to lend money in unlimited amounts to those robbers and murderers, who call themselves governments, to be expended in shooting down those who do not submit quietly to being robbed and enslaved." by: Lysander Spooner(1808-1887) Political theorist, activist, abolitionist Source: "No Treason #6" (1870)
When they really write of Greek debt, what will happen in Italy, for example? A Five Star write off? Contagion to other peripherals seems likely.
Greece goes under Italy goes under, Italy goes under, it all goes up in a puff of smoke. Do you think for a minute that Goldman / Rothschilds would let it end this way....
Correct. But it could be a major step in 'the great unwind'. Maybe a step too far. For now, i think they will paper this over, but Japan is still looming, together with peripheral problems this could become big mess.
Folks here at the hedge are getting pretty thick. This is just like the scenve from blazing saddles, when you have the scene with the nigga holding a gun to his own head.... .One false move and the nigga gets it......
Syriza has no outright intention of leaving the EU, the majority of Greeks dont want to leave the EU. They will demand a better deal from the Germans (read more welfare), so the Greek FSA can continue on. Only if the terms of "Austerity" (haha) arent improved for them, then will you see a Grexit. Basically it will take a 100 Billion Euros from Germany, for 18 more months of Pax Hun.......
Alternative fur Deutschland will not be amused.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/chechen-president-offers/15543...
This is that man:
http://youtu.be/AAzves3yu54?t=4m56s
Where is Bruno when we need him ?
January 25!? No worries, plenty of time for TPTB to make sure the fix is in.
Remember when Greek collapse was bearishly relevant to markets?
In the new Orwellian era, it now points to record highs in "cleaner panties" markets
Welcome to the Hotel Europa, you can check-out anytime but you can never leave.
Sovereign debt turmoil on cue for 2015. Ignore the dumb follwers and get into tangible assets soon.
http://otdon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/greece-set-for-snap-election-exit-fe...
Xi Offers Bailout
The PRC has offered to bail Greece out. In exchange for some islands and a warm-water base for Chinese and Russian Navy ships,
Nothing will change except we will use Yuans for our currency, said the Greek President. We are also thinking of throwing in some world heritage sites on the deal. Premier Xi has offered plenty of liquidity and Investment for jobs.